40-19 ATS season-to-date....pending the Raiders/Chiefs OVER on MNF.
A kind poster has just shown that divisional games have gone UNDER over 85% of the time this year, so will keep that in mind going forward.
1) Since 2014 a road team off a home loss before week 11 that has a Vegas line less than the calculated line has been 85-32-4 ATS.....Commanders
The calculated line is done as follows....the Commanders' point differential after five games played is -7.6/game (-38 divided by 5). The Bears' is -4/game (-20/5)....the Bears have a 3.6 points/game differential advantage, and we add 2 points for home field...the calculated line then is Chicago -5.6. The line is approximately pik 'em.....teams in this situation have performed brilliantly, including former dregs like the New York Jets twice this season in this exact situation.
If our away team has equal or less wins than their present opponent this moves to 72-25-3 ATS
The query text is as follows....
p:HL and A and week<11 and season>2014 and line<oA(margin)+2-tA(margin)
2) An away dog or pik since 2014 with less than or equal wins to their present opponent whose next week line will be stronger than their opponent's next week line....148-93-6 ATS.....Patriots, Commanders, Jaguars (possibly Cowboys).
Example....Patriots next play the Bears at home and should be around -7....the Browns go to the Ravens and should be approximately 3 point away dogs.
Cowboys play at home after next week to the Lions...that line should be around -8, however the Eagles play host to the Steelers and that line might be similar despite masseyratings.com not downgrading the Steelers by all that much yet, so whether the Cowboys qualify for this angle is iffy, the lookahead lines come out about Wednesday and of course they are subject to change based on the previous week's results.
t:wins <= o:wins and n:line < on:line and A and line>=0 and season > 2014 and week<11
3) A week 6 game number six non-divisional away team with two or three wins on the season whose present opponent has 0, 1 or two more wins than they do, as away dogs....28-11 ATS.....Patriots, Jets.....as away favorites...6-3 ATS.....Bengals, Ravens
4 > t:wins > 1 and A and not division = o:division and game number = 6 and 1 > t:wins - o:wins > -3 and week = 6 and AF, AD
Plays:
1) Jaguars +1
2) Patriots +3
3) Commanders pik