week VI tech angles

VSIN made a brief mention of teams not making the playoffs last season doing well as dogs this season....soooooo, of course I wanted to check that out.....if you're new to this, know this.....

AT LEAST HALF OF WHAT YOU READ ON THE INTERNET IN REGARDS TO GAMBLING success, angles, trends, etc., IS INCORRECT.

Here's the breakdown of how those teams have done this season....

As....

Home favorites 9-15 ATS, 14-11 straight up 

Away favorites 4-8 ATS, 6-5-1 straight up

Away underdogs 17-13-1 ATS, 11-20 straight up

Home dogs 13-7-1 ATS, 9-11-1 straight up

Those underdogs with less than or equal wins to their present opponent on the season have been 30-13-2 ATS......ON Commanders, Jets, Seahawks, Falcons, Saints, Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos

D and tpS(playoffs)=0 and season=2022 and t:wins<=o:wins

Those favorites that have equal or more wins on the season have been 11-23-1 ATS.............

VERSUS Bears, Browns, Colts, Vikings, Chargers

F and tpS(playoffs)=0 and season=2022 and t:wins>=o:wins

What if we marry these two angles?.....we'll  see how these  underdogs do that missed the playoffs last season against a team that also missed the playoffs last season.

Drum roll...............AND THE ANSWER IS>>>>>>>

19-6-1 ATS!!

8-3-1 ATS as home dogs, 5-5-1 straight up.....Dolphins

11-3  ATS as away dogs, 8-7 straight up....Commanders, Jaguars, Broncos

HD, AD and tpS(playoffs) = 0 and season = 2022 and t:wins <= o:wins and opS(playoffs) = 0

Last season?  42-42 ATS.....in sports wagering these days, we find there are MANY short-term angles that work for a season, before disappearing into oblivion....we'll see if this continues to trend for a time or a season as WD Gann would say, or not.

When we wish to have an logical explanation why something works, but only for a time or a season that is when we can get into trouble, some things just are, and a portion of those only for a short time or a season.

"We wish to make things as simple as possible, but no simpler"

Attributed to Albert Einstein 

Continuing on from thread #26.....since 2014 away dogs before week 7 that missed the playoffs last season, playing an opponent that missed the playoffs last season have been 91-52-4 ATS, and if the vegas line is less than the calculated line this moves to 53-22 ATS.....Commanders

After week six away dogs have been 105-99-8 ATS in this scenario.

Home dogs in this situation before week 7 have been 46-31-2 ATS, including 27-12-1 ATS if the vegas line is less than the calculated line.....Dolphins

Home dogs in this situation after week 6 have been 71-72-1 ATS.

We made a pretty good discovery, and hopefully we'll enjoy this  while it lasts this week based on our historical data, and then back away next week as past history says this trend regresses to the mean after week six.....we'll be ready to fire  on this angle from the start of week 1 in future seasons.

Incredible work Indigo!.. appreciate your effort!..God Bless

@indigo999

i see you have the commanders already locked in for a pic for this coming Thursday. you don’t seem to have any concerns about the coach blaming the weakest part of the team as the QB? Could this effect the way the team play or do they rally around him? In my eyes it could go either way, I just hope the team doesn’t all of a sudden stop playing for the coach and then get crushed by the bears. 

Yes, that is a concern....if you're a player, especially Wentz, you can either fold, or say to yourself, "I'll show him!"  

Who knows how he'll react? 

I was thinking about this last night when I read about this...and basically if you're Alex Smith or anyone else you could say, "yeah, well they said similar things about Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones (and maybe  Gerard Goff too)  for the past few seasons and they're both 4-1 this year.....it's your job to coach them up and not make excuses." 

The Turners have always been overrated as offensive minds and they keep getting offensive coordinator roles.....those teams that hire them continuously have mediocre offensive production.  

You're the head coach in charge of hiring your staff, and you are getting what you hired.....it is on you Rivera.

The Commanders are in very good situation versus the Bears, we'll see what happens.

@Indigo999

 Thx for taking the time to reply. Love the work your doing. Keep it up man 

I would think Wentz will respond positively...  has moved a few times in past years... heard no rumblings... I think he’s a competitor...  I am paying more attention to your thread 999...  tip my cap to ya.   

indigo,

Thank you for your continued kindness. While playing around and having fun I tried this:

D and season >2021 and t:3DP>o:3DP and t:RY>o:RY................ it gave me a 15-3-1 (84%) I realize that this just

looking back at these conditions. In general, is there a way to use these same conditions to look forward without being game specific?

@Indigo999

Do you mean SU or ATS? Baltimore didn't win ATS last week but won SU. 

You are missing the way to use SDQL.  Until you start using either per game averages going into the game (tA or oA) or  games based on the previous game your results (p or op) are going to be largely worthless.

You basically are saying "I am going to predict that team A is gonna outrush their opponent team B (or out third down conversion percentage their opponent, or any other stat) so what will my results be in that game?"

Vegas has already built that into their line and adjusted accordingly.

We'll take an example....we'll say that team A has out rush yarded their present opponent for the season-to-date by at least 30 yards per game.

So, we'd expect that they will outrush their opponent in this game, right?

We'll make team A a home favorite, so the query text is...... HF and tA(RY)-oA(RY)>30 and month=10

Those teams have gone 165-179-9 ATS, 48.7% covering rate, so, no advantage out of 353 games....in fact they actually have done less than average and would cost you money backing those teams.

If we add RY>o:RY to the query to find out how many instances those teams that were expected to outrush their opponent actually did outrush them.......

HF and tA(RY)-oA(RY)>30 and month=10 and RY>o:RY, we get a record of 142-92-8 ATS, which looks great, but we find that there are only 242 games listed, so in 111 cases our dominant rushing team going into the game got outrushed, or 31.4% of the time,......so things didn't go according to what the pregame stats said they would, that team A would dominate the rushing stats.

This is the essence that you are missing.  Until you get that concept, using SDQL could  cost you a great deal of money.   

DO NOT assume  you or anyone else can predict 3rd down conversion percentage, rushing prowess or any other stat,...more than half of the time the NFL is a reversion league and what went on before will not continue and also that vegas has those stats baked into their pointspreads.....and SDQL will tell you that if you use it correctly. 

The advantage we should have as bettors is based on one thing....the vast majority of bettors bet with the expectation that things will go the way they have been going, and very few will bet with the expectation that things will NOT continue to go as they have.

What don't you get?....I said "a team off a away dog win versus a team off an home favorite win".

Baltimore doesn't care if they didn't cover the pointspread and for the purposes of us calculating an advantage, we don't either.

If we go into this some more....if team A is averaging 30 more yards per game rushing than their this week's opponent the way you are thinking they should outrush team B by 30 yards or more in this game...that would be your assumption going into the game.

How often does that  happen?....

They outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards 179 out of 353 times or 52% of the time.

tA(RY) - oA(RY) > 30 and month = 10 and HF and RY-o:RY>30

67 times the weaker rushing team outrushes the stronger team by over 30 yards and 161 times the weaker rushing team, team B outrushes their opponent in that game out of 353 times in the sample size.

@Indigo999

I like your card so far…the only one that concerns me is the Patriots play.. 

good luck this week

67 times the weaker rushing team outrushes the stronger team by over 30 yards and 161 times the weaker rushing team, team B outrushes their opponent in that game out of 353 times in the sample size.....

make that 103 times the weaker rushing team outrushes the stronger rushing team....

tA(RY) - oA(RY) > 30 and month = 10 and HF and RY-o:RY<0

If we knew what team would outrush yard their opponent in advance me and everyone else we wouldn't need Biff's Almanac as those teams cover 68% of the time,  74% of the time as underdogs.

t:RY>o:RY

Thank you..I finished reading the manual at KillerSports, need to do it again in light of your current observations. HATE to think I am imposing on you and your

kindness but I have never had the power of instant results going back so far.

D and tA(RY)-oA(RY)>1 and month=10 and RY-o:RY>1      Tried using the tA and oA prefixes here but like you said the results are too high. What additional text

in the query will bring the results back to earth? Thanx in advance.

RY-o:RY>1.....remember that  68% of those teams outrushing their opponent in any certain game  will cover, so of course that will skew your results by presuming you know ahead of time what team will do so.

With the above highlighted text you are predicting in advance that in this present game your team will outrush their opponent, which is my point....you can't predict that.  From my previous comment on this, 1/3 of the time the opposite team that you would suppose will outrush their opponent or any other stat for that matter, so 2/3s of the time you will be correct with about a 68% cover rate....if you multiply those two numbers......  .68 covering rate of teams outrushing their opponent  multiplied by  .67, the chance you are correct in assuming  that your team will outrush their opponent, you get .45 or 45%....which sends you to the poor house.

For the next few weeks concentrate on using the prefixes tA (team's average), oA (opponent's average), p (team's previous game) and op (team's opponents previous game) only.....forget the o and t prefixes (the present game) until you understand the concept more.

You are like the kid that wants to perform virtuoso performance in a musical instrument you've just picked up, it'll take you a minimum 100 hours and probably more to get proficient at this kind of thing.

You'll see in my query texts that I have printed out for study/scrutiny that I hardly ever use the t and o prefixes unless I am querying which team has more wins and losses in which I could also use a teams winning percentage versus their present opponent's, i.e., tA(W)<=oA(W).

Well, I am concerned about ALL of them.....lol.

good fortune to you as well......

“Cherishing yourself leads to misfortune. Cherishing others leads to good fortune.
We are social animals. Like all social animals, a person who is selfish will not attract others, but a person who helps others will invite the kindness and company of others.”
 Todd Perelmuter

What happens when the starting RB gets injured in the game and is out for the rest of the game..and you only get the backups rush yards.. is that a “true” total rush yards considering the starter ran some plays but left the game..wouldn’t it mess with the numbers if you consider the starter may or may not have had a better or worse amount of rush yards and would have taken some snaps away from the back up RB? It’s a dumb question but I’m just curious to see if it messes with your system as far as results..

Is your weaker rushing team versus stronger rushing team trend week to week or overall rushing for the season..

example Patriots game.. Damien Harris inured his hamstring and is now out versus the Browns..And they face a better defense compared to Detroit 

@Indigo999

Well, sometimes the back-up out-produces the starter and sometimes he doesn't.  Sometimes the passing game increases, sometimes the other team fumbles 3 times, and sometimes my/your team gets beat by 5 touchdowns.  Sometimes there will be poor results over an entire weekend.

If you have misgivings about a game or a situation as you have described I wouldn't play it.....after all at the end of the day, we are making emotional decisions even after we have given ourselves a lot of data to analyze. 

These are my games I'm playing, there is gonna be some strong disagreement among those tuning in about whether a certain team can cover, as we all dance to a different drummer with differing perceptions of reality.   I've given you plenty of information for you to digest to determine what will work for you.

I will be wrong quite often, but hopefully not more than 40% of the time.

I am not here to be the be-all and end-all or be the guru where I expect everyone to be in lock-step with me.  I would hope I am more of a wise sage that can give advice that you can decide to act upon if it suits you and or alternatively you can discard it (gracefully) if it doesn't.

As the song The Boxer says, "a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.".......

Speaking of injuries...the quarterback situation in Miami is enough to get me off of the Dolphins this week.

I am looking to fade the Vikings, but I will wait until the Cardinals come calling to Minneapolis in week 8 after the Vikings get their bye in week 7....Sagarin presently has the Cardinals one point better than the Vikes (really?!) and Massey has the Vikings .75 points better....line oughta be Vikings -3ish.

Could be a more than one unit play for me.....I've had one so far this season.

In the last 30 years, home favorites in week six, game 6 have covered only 41% of their games, 74-105-4 ATS, and only 37% since 2010, 27-46 ATS.

HF and game number = 6 and week = 6 

Home favorites week 6, game 6 that will be dogs their next game have gone 28-58-3 ATS, 38-48-3 o/u......VERSUS Browns, Colts

HF and game number = 6 and week = 6  and n:D

Home favorites week 6, game 6 whose present opponent will be favorites next week have gone 36-57-2 ATS....VERSUS Browns, Colts, Eagles, Chargers 

HF and game number = 6 and week = 6 and on:F

If we combine the two....a week 6 game 6 home favorite who will be a dog their next game playing an opponent who will be a favorite their next game...... those home favorites have been 12-28-1 ATS......VERSUS Browns, Colts

HF and game number = 6 and week = 6 and on:F and n:D

So, we find that what happens in the future determines what happens in the past........as those that tap into the  metaphysical realm have been saying for centuries.

Jesus said that if you want your desires to be granted, that when you pray to thank God that your prayer has already been answered.....Mark 11:24

@Indigo999

Is there long term trends on a team that wins with a shutout Victory the following week ats results? I always hear you wanna fade teams that win big, those teams would be bills and pats this week. Thanks for this fantastic thread man!

GL @Indigo999

Nice reading to think about 

@Bucksfan92

 The two teams that scored 0 points this year are the colts are detroit. Indy won straight up against KC and detroit plays I think Dallas after the biweek. Historically, I don’t have the figures off hand, but I’ve read previous years on covers that teams that score 0 points historically due very well the following week by either winning straight up at least covering the spread.