Posted:
#76
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
This year, one could basically say "give me all the dogs" and you would be sitting pretty. Even publicly bet dogs this year have done well, which historically they haven't. Since 2014 in the NFL dogs have done very well, as I've mentioned numerous times. Away non-divisional dogs with a winning percentage above 500 have hit 48% of the time since 1989, and approximately 50% recently Alternatively, non-divisional dogs under 500 have hit around 52%, and 53% recently...of course it is much easier to back a team that looks decent on the field than one who doesn't........we are basically betting against the sportsbooks and other bettors..... they are watching the same games as we are. I postulate that as bettors we'd be more successful if we watched less or no games, rather than watching them all. Plays with public betting percentages (NOT the money bet) next to them.....public around 75% of the time will bet OVERs. Thursday nights have not been too good for me this far...have gone 1-2 ATS the last three TNF games, somehow getting the cover in my first two unit bet of the season last week on the Colts. Those two losses were on publicly bet underdogs, so have made a mental note that I will not be betting public dogs in MNF, SNF and TNF games, including the Cowboys this week who are a HUGE publicly bet underdog versus the Eagles. King of Covers VSIN 5) Chargers/Broncos UNDER 45' 59% 76% 6) Colts/Jaguars UNDER 42' 53% 63% 7) Eagles/Cowboys UNDER 42 46% 34% 4) Jets +7' 56% 63% 3) Jaguars +1 37% 53% 2) Patriots +3 52% 52% 1) Commanders pik 35% 36% A lot of people on the Jets bandwagon, or perhaps they've hopped off of Green Bay's.
This year, one could basically say "give me all the dogs" and you would be sitting pretty. Even publicly bet dogs this year have done well, which historically they haven't. Since 2014 in the NFL dogs have done very well, as I've mentioned numerous times. Away non-divisional dogs with a winning percentage above 500 have hit 48% of the time since 1989, and approximately 50% recently Alternatively, non-divisional dogs under 500 have hit around 52%, and 53% recently...of course it is much easier to back a team that looks decent on the field than one who doesn't........we are basically betting against the sportsbooks and other bettors..... they are watching the same games as we are. I postulate that as bettors we'd be more successful if we watched less or no games, rather than watching them all. Plays with public betting percentages (NOT the money bet) next to them.....public around 75% of the time will bet OVERs. Thursday nights have not been too good for me this far...have gone 1-2 ATS the last three TNF games, somehow getting the cover in my first two unit bet of the season last week on the Colts. Those two losses were on publicly bet underdogs, so have made a mental note that I will not be betting public dogs in MNF, SNF and TNF games, including the Cowboys this week who are a HUGE publicly bet underdog versus the Eagles. King of Covers VSIN 5) Chargers/Broncos UNDER 45' 59% 76% 6) Colts/Jaguars UNDER 42' 53% 63% 7) Eagles/Cowboys UNDER 42 46% 34% 4) Jets +7' 56% 63% 3) Jaguars +1 37% 53% 2) Patriots +3 52% 52% 1) Commanders pik 35% 36% A lot of people on the Jets bandwagon, or perhaps they've hopped off of Green Bay's.
That has been my experience. Last year was my best handicapping year ever with the least amount of viewing.
Watching games can sometimes influence you too much. Imagine how most of the general public reacted to the BUF-KC playoff finale. I bet most of the bettors I refer to as crippled by Zombie GroupThink felt that Mahomes looked absolutely unstoppable against BUF and so took them against CIN. Oops.
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