week VI tech angles

@Bucksfan92

 The jags beat chargers the following week 28-10 after shutting out Indy. Keep an eye out to see what the outcome of the New England game is this week. Typically first time starters playing on the road have terrible outcomes. Just ask that guy from pitts last week against the bills. 

@Redxff77

 yeah that's true forgot about the jags shutout win! I had just heard on some podcast teams that covered by a very large margin/shutout typically don't due well the next week ????? could be total bs! Bill B will have a nice game plan once again I'm sure, depends if zappe can hold up to clowney and Garrett! 

Yes, I'd say that is true....however Bill might have him throw only about 10 passes in the game....lol.

I liked what I saw from him, but you're right, I'd say he'll be on a very short leash and he might perform badly. 

Here's a college angle that I am using for this week......we take a team with a line between -17 and +17 points in week 7 that has less than four wins on the season, with less than or equal wins to their week's opponent that will be favored their next two games.

As:

Home favorites 54-34 ATS...none

Away favorites 35-12 ATS.....ON Miami, FL, Central Michigan

Away dogs 49-27-3 ATS......ON Iowa State, Kent State

week = 7 and AF, HF, AD and C and 17 > line > -17 and n:F and nn:F and t:wins - o:wins<1 and t:wins < 4

Here are the results of teams off a shutout win as a home favorite.....

As....

Away dogs 12-24-1 ATS.....this will MAY get me off of my Pats play that I have at +3...the line has moved to 2.5, which is a nice development

Away favorites 19-26 ATS

Home favorites 22-14 ATS

Home dogs 1-2 ATS

Also, the Patriots kicked 5 field goals in their previous game which is also a negative situation going against the Pats, though away dogs of 3 points EXACT have gone 4-1-2 ATS in this situation.

@Indigo999

 gotta be sharp money coming in on pats! I was about to bet Cleveland earlier i try and back teams that didn't cover against teams that did previous week. My uncle told me if you do that wks 2-10 in the nfl you'll make a good profit every year. I did last year the first time I think it was around 60% some of my tracking data got lost ?????

I have a query that does not resemble your AF's query, but it also likes CMCH.

Good luck this week.

Looks like there is a historical basis of that if you're taking away dogs.

Away dogs off an ats loss playing and team off an ats win before week 10....

  a)  since 1989.........363-323-13 ATS 

  b)  since 2014..........87-71-4 ATS

  c)  since 2014 and away dog <=6...............60-36-2 ATS.... 

  d)  though it's been a money burning 33-44 ATS taking home favorites of less than -6 since 2014 in that situation.

p:ats margin<0 and week<10 and op:ats margin>0 and HD, AF, HF, AD and season>2014 and line<=6

There is hardly any scenarios since 2014 where there is an historical edge in taking home favorites....sometimes taking home favorites with less wins than their opponent there is, but that is about it.

@Bucksfan92

 not sure why 50 question marks keep showing up when I post ????

@Indigo999

 ok awesome thanks for that info!! 

Leprechauns have obviously invaded my keyboard and wrecked my ability to type.

Looks like there is a historical basis of that if you're taking away dogs.

Away dogs off an ats loss playing VERSUS a  team off an ats win before week 10....

  a)  since 1989.........363-323-13 ATS 

  b)  since 2014..........87-71-4 ATS

  c)  since 2014 and away dog <=6...............60-36-2 ATS.... 

  d)  though it's been a money burning 33-44 ATS taking home favorites of less than -6 since 2014 in that situation.

p:ats margin<0 and week<10 and op:ats margin>0 and HD, AF, HF, AD and season>2014 and line<=6

Great information and thank you for sharing your hard work 

Change your week 6 thread #60 to week<8 and change the year to>2017 , AD 68% and the under is almost 60% , but look at AF s/u. Also you may have me picking the Jag's this week.

So, we'll see if Hoody has got something, as we have seen in the past that he is capable of savant, Rainman-type behavior....we'll go back only until 2017 and look at the results.

The new query text is this....

season>2017 and -6<=line<=6 and p:ats margin<0 and op:ats margin>0 and A and week<8

The results are in:

As:

  a)  away dogs.....34-16 ATS....Jaguars, Broncos....I would self-flagellate myself if, in state of temporary insanity  I inexplicably took the Broncos any time in the near future.

  b)  away favorites.....17-11 ATS.....Commies, Ravens,......though careful with the Ravens as teams off a straight up win no cover, rather than a loss no cover are only 2-3 ATS.

  c)  home dogs.......14-11 ATS........Seahawks, Chiefs....teams off a win no cover have been 4-4 ATS (Chiefs)

  d)  home favorites....15-23-1 ATS......Browns, Eagles...however teams off a win no cover as the Eagles are have been 5-0 STATS winning by an average of close to 19 points/game, and  a team off a loss 10-22-1 ATS (Browns).......must've been a tie in there somewhere.

“We mustn't be afraid of inventing anything...Everything there is in us exists in nature. After all, we're part of nature. If it resembles nature, that's fine. If it doesn't, what of it? When man wanted to invent something as useful as the human foot, he invented the wheel, which he used to transport himself and his burdens. The fact that the wheel doesn't have the slightest resemblance to the human foot is hardly a criticism of it.”
Francoise Gilot, Life with Picasso

@Indigo999

 hey I was just pondering on this, is it possible to look up teams that have multiple non covers vs teams with consecutive covers ats? My uncle says the more non covers in a row vs covers the better. I'm thinking he's just gotten lucky on the select games he bets lol 

@Indigo999

any games that fit these parameters this week?

This year, one could basically say "give me all the dogs" and you would be sitting pretty.  Even publicly bet dogs this year have done well, which historically they haven't.  Since 2014 in the NFL dogs have done very well, as I've mentioned numerous times.

Away non-divisional dogs with a winning percentage above 500 have hit 48% of the time since 1989, and approximately 50% recently

Alternatively, non-divisional dogs under 500 have hit around 52%, and 53% recently...of course it is much easier to back a team that looks decent on the field than one who doesn't........we are basically betting against the sportsbooks and other bettors..... they are watching the same games as we are.  I postulate that as bettors we'd be more successful if we watched less or no games, rather than watching them all.

Plays with public betting percentages (NOT the money bet) next to them.....public around 75% of the time will bet OVERs.

Thursday nights have not been too good for me this far...have gone 1-2 ATS the last three TNF games, somehow getting the cover in my first two unit bet of the season last week on the Colts.  Those two losses were on publicly bet underdogs, so have made a mental note that I will not be betting public dogs in MNF, SNF and TNF games, including the Cowboys this week who are a HUGE publicly bet underdog versus the Eagles.

                                                         King of Covers                   VSIN

5)  Chargers/Broncos UNDER 45'                 59%                         76%

6)  Colts/Jaguars UNDER 42'                       53%                         63%

7)  Eagles/Cowboys UNDER 42                   46%                          34%

4)  Jets +7'                                               56%                          63%

3)  Jaguars +1                                          37%                          53%

2)  Patriots +3                                          52%                          52%

1)  Commanders pik                                  35%                          36%

A lot of people on the Jets bandwagon, or perhaps they've hopped off of Green Bay's.

brilliant stuff.  Ive always suspected of expectancy tailing in my betting at certain points of the season (NBA after all star game seems like a lot of my edges fade hard) but this is next level.

I did it this way   p:ats margin<0 and week<8 and op:ats margin>0 and HD, AF, HF, AD and season>2017 and line<=6    and you get AF at 71% s/u and AD look at the under.

Well, you oughta rub one of his lucky body parts then and some of that luck will rub off.....lol.

I used a line stipulation that  the line is between 6.5 and -6.5 to get some slightly differing numbers, not a big deal really.

Away dogs.....Jaguars, Broncos

Home dogs.....Dolphins, Giants, though Giants have the better record now than the Ravens, so this negates the advantage, much better if the play-on team has an equal or worse record.

After a point spread losing streak of greater than 4 games, you are in a losing proposition backing those teams. 

A team off a loss with a line between -6.5 and 6.5 with a point spread losing streak of 0 to 4 games since 2014.

Home favorites....39-61 ATS.......VERSUS Browns

Away favorites.....20-18 ATS

Away dogs..........67-40 ATS......ON Jaguars, Broncos

Home dogs.........50-32 ATS......Dolphins

Basically, if you are betting home favorites you are in negative EV land since 2014, where you and I DON'T WANT TO BE!!,..... even the teasers in this situation only cover 63% of the time, where on a two teamer you'd have to be hitting at least 72 percent to sniff a profit.

p:L and HF, HD, AF, AD and -6 <= line <= 6 and week < 10 and p:ats streak > -5 and season > 2014 and p:streak < 1

Commanders tonight? 

@Indigo999

 ouch home faves have been tough on the ole pocket book! Thanks for doing the research I appreciate it! 

INDIGO I think he may be looking for something like this

p:ATSL and pp:ATSL and ppp:ATSL and line>-3.5 and op:ATSW and opp:ATSW and team and season>=2017       or this , not bad

p:ATSL and pp:ATSL and ppp:ATSL and line>-3.5 and op:ATSW and opp:ATSW and season>=2017

and you can put the week<8 , still good