Wild Wild Wildcard Weekend....

Can't see how the Boys would lose to this Bucs team this year, but nothing would shock me at this point Van...

Alos, feel like Bolts get it done, but would have much rather had Williams in there and think when he and Allen play they are 4-0 on the year, but oh well and probably won't matter..

Short number on Gmen game makes you wonder most definitely, but would say Boys would be my top pick this weekend too and can't see Bolts losing either in a close game if it comes down to that..

Good luck Van and always 

Van

They are 3-0 on the road on turf....you tell me if it's grass turf or home away?

@easymoney8474

Ok.  I will play along.  How important to you is this stat?  A 5 game subset of an 8 game sample size?

On a list of 1 to 100 in important factors for the result of this game, what number is this?  Would you bet the bucs based on this stat alone?

@TRAIN69

No I wouldn't bet on this stat alone. Do you always make plays based on 5 10 or 15 factors? How many factors must align for you to make a wager?

@Kep131313

 vikings are probably the worst 13-4 team in history

but that doesnt change the fact that Daniel Jones and the Giants suck

FWIW

i am a bears fan lol - just happy we got the first pick this year

i dont see the giants winning on the road

i see the vikes winning another close ugly game

like they always do

perhaps vikes ml is the best bet

Man, with all due respect, all the points in bold are just things you "want to happen ", and provide no evidence as to why they will. This imo is handicapping suicide. 

#1. The Vikings defense has been soft ALL year, but yet you "expect" that to change Sunday? Tell us why please.

#2. You "expect" that the Vikings will win the turnover battle. Sorry but no one can predict turnovers, there's no argument for either side as turnovers are the most unpredictable thing in football, at least for one single game. If anything, you can look at their last game where the Vikings won the turnover battle 2-0, and had a blocked punt to go along with it. One could say that maybe the pendulum will swing here, and even out the ratio of random events.

#3. McConnell will use the pass to set up the run. Ok maybe he will. Minnesota passes for a first down 63.87% of the time, 6th highest in the league. Over their last 3 games 65.22%. Minnesota rushes for a first down 24.35% of the time. 31st lowest in the league. 

If you have proof that the Vikings flip their style of play in this game, I'd like to hear why. This would definitely catch the Giants off guard.

#4. We will see lots of trickery and motion. Once again, why please? Is it something they don't do often, and is their a reason to believe that they will in this game?

#5. Home stadium will be unbearably loud. Ok this is true, it is one of the loudest stadiums in the league. Fwiw, the Giants just played here not too long ago. They should be familiar. Also, they practiced with crowd noise pumped in from the speakers this week in practice. 

#6. Vikings will be playing something to prove. Sure, they will. So will the Giants. It's hard to find a real edge in motivation for either side when it comes to a playoff game imo. Both teams play 100% to their abilities, cause if you lose the season is over.

Just something to think about. I'm not trying to talk shit. Been doing this for a long time, and it's important to find legitimate reasons for finding value in a line. Lord knows that it is all ready hard enough as it is.

Now the worst thing that could happen is if the Vikings do win and cover. That's good for you especially if you have $ on it. But, you will then just be falsely reassured that they won because of the reasons you thought they won. When those multiple reasons compounded probably had nothing to do with it. Then you "could be" obliged to bring in the same type of reasoning into your next handicap. 

Good Luck 

@undermysac

 great post sac

often takes years of losing to figure that out!

who do u like in this game?

@undermysac

 my bad

u already put u are on gmen ML

best of luck to u and van

great discussion

I took the gmen +3 for 2.25 units, and .75 on the ML earlier in the week.

Since I'm here now, I'll add one of the "less noticed" reasons as to why. Not gonna clog up Van's thread too much.

The Giants have a substantial advantage in the kicking game, and this usually plays in playoff games with low spreads.

Graham Gano is 90.6% this year. Greg Joseph is 78.8%

Dvoa rankings for kickers where fg's and extra points are combined:

MIN -8.9 (31st)

NYG 8.6 (3rd)

If Greg Joseph has another 61 yarder in him to win the game on the last play, then God bless him, and +3 pushes if it's tied.

Just one of many advantages I saw when looking at the game.

I love Dallas. So much in fact that i hit it when it came out so i have -3 (-116) 

 Savage

GL with the ML

’’Liking the Vikings because the Giants suck.”.. Amazing insight 

Hey Van...Hey Easy,

I started to reply to you're conversation because of Van saying he was interested to hear your reply, Easy, but I wanted to wait for your response.  Then I realized we could go down the rabbit hole with all kinds of stats re fields and surfaces lol, but the opponent and the previous week and injury situation all factor in as you guys know.

I would say this, the Bucs were 5-4 at home, and 3 of those losses were to grass teams, so they had no edge throughout the season (with or without the grass); no correlation or causation, just a random occurrence this season.

Cowboys had 8 away games and 5 were on grass...they went 1-4 at the grass field teams (including the last game @ WAS/ 26-6 loss where the Cowboys O sucked it up badly while they had a slim shot to win the East if the Iggles lost to the G-Men).  If the Cowboys were losing 70% of their grass games over 5 yers, then I would recognize a causation, but even then there's so many other factors (including coaching lol).

Hope I didn't waste anybody's time, guys...lol...always enjoy reading these conversations!!!

Cheers and BOL to you both, and to the rest of us here  

With you you on niners, let’s line and light it up! Gl 

Thanks for sharing Van the man! Heck thanks for the whole year buddy! Very much appreciate the access to your opinions 

@undermysac

@vanzack

GL Vanny.

the initial relationship absolutely but the next needs more specifics to make a determination….

@ruffcutter

 I got both--might have to be an in-game play...

Vanzack mahalo for sharing your hard work!  What would your Super Bowl prediction be for these playoffs? 
take care brotha..