1st Round Puck Talk

Good afternoon Gentlemen and Jules 

Great time of year (unless you are a Pens fan ). I do know for a fact that the Lippsman Split was positive in the first round last year, so keep that in mind. I do like the Isles to upset the Canes and the Leafs to finally expel the jinx of the first round. Does the President's Trophy jinx come into play this year again? Many questions that will be answered in the next several weeks. Onto Monday's games.

Islanders vs Canes: The Isles were 1-3 vs the Canes this year. TWO of the FOUR games went over (weird). Barzal is a ? on Monday so that will affect the Lippsman Split. Sorokin > Anderson. Both teams are Top 5 in GAA with the Canes at #2 (2.56/gm) and the Isles at #5 (2.65/gm). If it comes to special teams, the Canes have far superior numbers. The Isles rank 30th in the league in PP at only 15.8%, while the Canes are ranked 2nd in the league in PK at 84.2%. This surprised me, Brock Nelson has more goals and points than any player on the Canes team. I expect a low scoring, grind it out series to go 6 or 7 games. Game 1 Lean: UNDER

Panthers vs Bruins: Teams split the season series at two games apiece with both winning on home ice. ALL 4 games went OVER the total. Both teams rank in the top 6 in the league for GF/gm. However, the Bruins rank 1st in the league in GA at 2.12. Didn't realize that Florida's PP ranks 10th in the league (thought it would be worse) BUT, BUT.. Florida ranks 31st in the league in PM/GM. Not good to be putting B's on the PP. Total mismatch in goal with Panthers having to rely on Lyons vs potential Vezina winner Ullmark. What is Ullmark's status? He left his last game out. Game 1 Lean: Boston in regulation or team total over

Wild vs Stars: Teams split the season series at two games apiece. THREE of the FOUR games went under the total. Again, surprisingly to me, the Stars PP ranked 5th in the league and the Wild ranks 26th in the league in penalty minutes per game. Stars do rank 3rd in the league in PK percentage. Who will start in net for the Wild? Missing Eriksson Ek will be a HUGE loss for the Wild. Game 1 Lean: Stars tt over. 

Kings vs Oil: This series went 7 games last year. I would argue that there is no hotter team in the league right now than the Oil (yes, that includes Boston). Teams split the season series with the Kings winning the first two meetings and the Oil winning the last two meetings. In the 4 meetings this year, THREE went UNDER. I am seeing that Fiala and Vilardi are ? for Monday's game. Both teams net minders are question marks in my opinion, but we will see. An interesting note in this series is that there is 3 days off between games 4 and 5 due to Kings not having the arena due to the NBA. Game 1 Lean: Will wait to see the Kings line-up first. 

There you go now let's start filling in the blanks. What do you want to talk about? 

Like the islanders to upset too. Don’t think aho and necas are enough on offense. 

Nice write up

If we only look at numbers, the home team should be favorite in all eight series. 

The last 50 games of the regular season has seen the favorite win 39 games, a whopping 78%

The last 120 games, 96 wins That's  80%

I don't have the numbers for all season or other seasons, but i remember a few years ago it was close to 63%

I wish i knew what  the % was during last season's playoff, i am sure it's closer to  63%

With that in mind, how many of the 1st games of each series are won by the home team..... my guess is 6 wins 2 losses, 1 on monday, 1 on tuesday

Monday, i only have eyes for a Hurricanes lost, 

Bos, Edm and dal should win

Good luck for the playoffs

Hey Doc,

Bruins had a morning skate today and their captain took the day off again.  Not that he needs to skate after playing in 78 games, but this sounds like a D-T-D for sure:

*******************

After missing practice for the second day in a row Sunday, it would appear that Bruins captain Patrice Bergeron will be a true game-time decision for Monday’s Game 1 against the Panthers.

“You know, that’s to be decided [Monday],” Bruins general manager Don Sweeneysaid of Bergeron’s status. “If he feels well enough, he’ll play. If not, we’ve done a really good job down the stretch of trying to — [Tomas] Nosek missed the game, was under the weather [and] [Jeremy] Swayman was off today [because] he was under the weather — so we’re just trying to monitor that and make sure we balance it out.”

Lifted from Thursday’s regular season finale in Montreal after just one period with what team called both an upper-body injury and precautionary, the Bruins noted Sunday that Bergeron is dealing with both an injury and an illness.

Only Lippsman split night one for me is the Isles at +145, other than that, I am taking B's in regulation and team total. Still awaiting lineups for Minnesota and LA to make more decisions. Ek skated this weekend and they are saying he might actually play. No Fiala or Vilardi at yesterday's Kings skate. 

I like Boston , Carolina and Toronto 

Fiala did not skate in yesterday's practice and Vilardi was in a red no-contact jersey. Kings are not an official Lippsman Split play. 

Totals adjusted insanely low for playoffs...was hoping they wouldn't adjust that heavy....

Like unders in 3 series a lot... nyi/car wpg/vgk and min/dal but with minne  i don't like unders as much with MAF in net...

Should be lots of OT in nyr/nj series...potential unders...they played ton of 1 goal games...should be tight in playoffs

Best under series imo....Nyi/car..2 of tighter teams in league

Other potential good unders

Wpg/vgk...2 teams who can play tight....

Min/dal....I don't like minne unders as much with MAF in net....

Nyr/nj....could be tight 3-2 games...most reg.season was 4-3 and goals typically tick down in playoffs....should be  a really good series

Lak/edm can play tight games...but ton of firepower on edm....korpisalo/skinner the key to under hitting ....Kings matchup well vs Oilers....should go 6 or 7 again as long as korpi plays well...rematch of last year

Fla/bos should be good....not a great matchup for bos...especially if lyon keeps playing like he has been....fla gonna steal a game or 2 at minimum

Sea/col tough to get a feel....roll with Mackinnon....I still can't get a read on the kraken...they do hold teams to low SOG per game and can get goaltending....avs wanna repeat and I think they are gonna i just don't know if this series goes 4 or 6

Tb/tor...another rematch....leafs the better team...and also the choke artist team....like unders here if we get some decent goaltending....should be a lot of 3-2 or 4-3 games.....can't tell if leafs gonna choke or not....tb looks rough of late but you know they will up their game for playoffs and they still have vasi

Great insight fellas. I love this hockey forum. I'm a Rangers fan and I really wanted to avoid Devils first round. My BP will be through the roof before the series is over. Every game will be close I'm sure.

This is the first year I'm going to try the lippsman split. I'm actually looking forward to it. My initial thought was Canes beat up on the isles. Both teams are playing well heading into the playoffs but I thought Canes in 5 or 6. I'm really curious to see what Boston does in game 1. I can see it being a tight game.

The one series I like is Edmonton. Although they split season series, I like Edmonton to take it in 5. I can't wait for these games. Nothing better than playoff hockey. Really appreciate the write ups. I'll dig deeper later and place wagers on everyone's input and research 

are we only looking at first liner for injuries as Lipps stated? 

@Ju_lie

 I commented on that in the Lippsman Split thread...

@Moose6836

 In order to play some of these games, you have to play prop bets. I am not laying 225 on the B's or 190 on the Oil. Besides, I have always been a team totals player and will stick to what brought me to the dance. 

@Zokali

 Think this will be one of the better 1st round series. I do give the edge to the Rangers, mainly because of goalie and experience. 

Glad to see you back in it giving your analysis doc, always a favorite thread to read. Great stuff. Leaning isles and under game 1. Think it’s a good spot for the isles today 

Jim Montgomery says there’s a bug going through the Bruins dressing room so he doesn’t have a definitive lineup. Patrice Bergeron, Linus Ullmark and others don’t have a definitive status for Game 1: “We’re going to have to see how they feel tonight” David Krejci is 100% for Game 1

Oh boy...and this is after I placed my bet. Might have to reconsider. 

Brandon Bussi called up for purposes of being the emergency goalie for Game 1 tonight. He was on the ice with Jeremy Swayman for an optional morning skate at Warrior this am

Frederik Andersen is out on the ice with the likely scratches (Puljujarvi, de Haan, Coghlan) this morning at PNC. Looks like Antti Raanta will start Game 1 tonight. No morning skate.

Matt Martin back in line rushes for #Isles Lee-Horvat-Barzal Engvall-Nelson-Palmieri Parise-Pageau-Fasching Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck (Bailey, Holmstrom, Johnston extra Fs) Pelech-Pulock Aho-Mayfield Bolduc-Dobson (Wotherspoon extra D) Sorokin (starter's net) Varlamov

Just see now that Anti Raanta is confirmed by Carolina (goalie-post), but roto has Freddie scheduled for the next 3 games.  Now I see that the Canes called up Kochetkov from the Wolves yesterday.  (Wolves didn't make AHL playoffs so it makes sense to have him just in case.)

Freddie took 2 of 3 during the season over the Islanders (Kochetkov was 1-0).  Something up with Freddie?

Brind’Amour says starting goalie will be Raanta.

@DB51daBEARS

 All I am reading was that he was Freddie was on the ice this morning with all the "scratches". 

@GASportsDoc

I hear ya, Doc...my bad, I was typing my Anti Raanta post about tonight and hit "submit" and then saw you had just posted a few minutes earlier.  Yeah...Freddie was just getting in some skating, they said on twitter.  Roto has Freddie for next 3 games, but that's prolly just pro-forma stuff, not game time decisions.

Cheers  

Bergeron game time decision

Ullmark game time decision

Swayman, who was out yesterday with illness, skated this morning. 

bug going through room. 

All per Ty Anderson

Bought out,  Bs team total., played the under a well. Going to ride with reg. bet

https://985thesportshub.com/listicle/bruins-reveal-latest-on-patrice-bergeron-status-for-game-1-injury-update/

It's the playoffs, of course Freddie Anderson is injured. He hasn't appeared in a playoff in 2 years. Not that it matters, he hasn't won a series since 2014-15.

And yes I'm a little bitter LOL. 

I do like the Dallas/Wild Over 5.5 tonight tho' at +106 FWIW.

Good Luck everyone, good to see ya back Doc