1st Round Puck Talk

will it be the defending champs or the president trophy winner to go out in the first round?

@MIZARD

 Interesting that I heard the President Trophy winner since 2013 all go out in the second round.  The only exception would be Tampa losing to Columbus.  

If I had to pick,  it would be Avs. Makar health in question.  Sea Monsters won 3 out of 4 and the one they lost went to OT. 

Man, I hammered the Bruins win Game 1 & Series parlay option on FD for -150 and then I see all of this news about a bug going around. Doesn't bode well for that bet and they won't allow me to cash out. 

My strongest leans are the Leafs, Avs, Bs, Oilers (all kind of square, tbh).

I am trying something a little more obvious this year. Instead of doing game by game bets, I am putting far more money into series bets. I get a little more bang for my buck that way.

I feel like Minny/Dal, NYR/NJ have the potential to go 7.

DOC 

Day 2

Rags/Devils. Coin toss. Devils won 3 of the 4 meetings this year. All the games but one was one goal games. The OVER hit in 3 of the 4 games. You might consider Igor > Vitek but their #'s are so similar. Igor: GAA 2.48/.916% Vitek: GAA 2.45/.911%. Rangers do have the edge in PP: 24.1% to 21.9% but the Devils have an edge in PK 82.6% (good for 4th in the league) to 81.2%. SOG basically even. PM/GM basically even. GF/GM slight edge to the Devils. Personally, I like the Devils but I feel they are a year away. Rangers and Igor's playoff experience will be the difference imo but I do feel it will go 6 or 7. 

Bolts vs Leafs. As Elvis sang, "It's Now or Never". Leafs won 2 of 3 this year. Both games in Toronto went under and the one in Tampa went over. Offensively, these 2 teams are neck and neck. GF/GM Leafs rank 9th; Bolts 8th, SOG: Leafs 12th; Bolts 13th, PP%: Leafs 2nd; Bolts 3rd. BUT...BUT...defensively is where things separate. Leafs rank 7th in the League at 2.68 GA where the Bolts rank 14th at 3.07 GA. Leafs only allow 29.5 SOG (which is good enough to be ranked 7th) while the Bolts rank 20th at 31.5. Bolts PK is 79.7% vs 81.9% for the Leafs. The big one is PM/GM as the Bolts rank 30th in the league with 12.1 PM. Bolts will want to play a physical, nasty game and the Leafs PP will be a key to the series, SO will Vas be able to stand on his head? He hasn't been as sharp the second half of the season. 

Jets/Knight. The Knights have won all 3 meetings this year and for some reason I think the Jets are a sleeper team in this series. Neither team offensively has eye opening numbers. Defensively is also pretty even but the one area that the Jets have an edge is with their PK. Jets rank 7th in the league in PK at 82.4% while the Knights rank 19th at 77.4%. The one thing the Knights have going for them is they ranked #1 in the league for least PM/GM at 7.2. Offensive even, defense even so why are the Jets a sleeper team to me? Hellebuyck vs Brossoit or Quick is the main one but I did like the line changes made by Bowness made the last 2 weeks of the season. Ehlers is now probably for tomorrow but the big news is Stone is expected to return tomorrow. Vegas will get a boost from his return but just how productive will he be? 

Seattle vs Avs. Ha..Seattle won 2 of 3 this year and both wins were in Denver. All 3 were UNDERS. How healthy is Makar. That is not only a question for this series but the entire playoffs. Seattle allows only 27 SOG but they need to because they have the worse tandem of net minders in the playoffs. Grubauer has a sub .900% for the year. Seattle reminds me of Florida last year in that they try to outscore their opponents to win. Playoffs are a different beast, ask Florida. Don't put the Avs on the PP, as they ranked 6th in the league at 24.5% and Seattle's PK ranked 21st at 76.7%. Again, the big question to me in this series and every series for Avs is how healthy is Makar. They will not repeat without him healthy imo. 

OK, that's enough for me..now it is your turn. What do you want to talk about? 

Damn. It appears that the best two games of the night were the late one. As an East Coast geezers, me and Rustie cannot stay up that late. 

 "If it comes to special teams, the Canes have far superior numbers."

"Total mismatch in goal with Panthers having to rely on Lyons vs potential Vezina winner"

Case in point, Ullmark 96.8 save percent vs Lyon 89.6%. Boston did what most thought they would do DOMINATE. Lyon played good but not good enough. I do think Boston will win both in Boston and go to Florida and lose one. Will Bob start tomorrow night ?

So I was able to watch the first two periods in Dallas. Wild dominated play in the first period then Dallas picked it up then the Dumba hit. Was it a good hockey play or a late? I am torn. He didn't hit the head but he did appear to launch. Losing Pavelski will be a big loss for the Stars. Oettinger has to stop that breakaway, seemed a little too soft for me. So Ottawa Sens, how it that trade working out, Talbot for Gustavsson? This is going to be a physical, long series.

So I got to watch the first period of the Oil/Kings and watched the Oil completely dominate the 1st period. Went to bed, awoke to find the Kings win the game? What in the hell happened? Need some others insight here. Korpisalo must have had a good game after the 1st period. 

I have always wanted to return to the #1 vs #8 seed playoff format but man, these first round series are entertainment. 

Playoffs: 

1-1 0.00 units (Isles L/ Boston reg. W)

Lord help me. Leafs ML -150, Jets +130, Sea Monsters/Avs over 6 -110

good luck. I’ll be smashing leaf’s tonight. As a leafs fan, may be only game I play on the leafs side, otherwise will be trying to catch Tampa in their spots. 

jets - I just don’t like them. They’ve looked atrocious the 2H of the season. Helley will steal a game or two here…you may be right on them tonight. 

Like that Over  

I'm gonna play all the pups tonight.  Just don't think the loss of 1 of your top Liner's or even top 6 is as big an impact as in the past.  Kings and Wild showed that last night.  Teams have 3rd and 4th Liners that are almost as talented as their top 6 to replace one star.

Good Luck Doc  

Sorry , did I read that right ??? Did Doc say he was taking the Leafs in the Leafs vs Vasilevskiy game? 

 I hope for the love of Gaw'd that he's right ! Leafs have to win this first game and get to Vasi or he's going to get in their heads. Let's hope Samsonov wants to de-throne his Russian counterpart. Anyhow best of luck to everyone tonight and throughout the playoffs. 

And Doc, I may be too old to stay up and watch the late games, but when you get to my age your up pissin' every couple hours anyway sooo.., lot's of score watching 

Hey Rustie..how are ya, buddy?!?!  LOL your "nightly rendezvouzzzz with the porcelain"...too funny 

So yeah...Big Cat is 3 years Ilya's senior, but still, they were known for the "P360 Shootout" (9 hr. drive) between Tyumen and Magnitogorsk...kinda like the "Red River Shootout" with Texas and Oklahoma college football.

Sorry...What was the question?

Cheers Rustie  

This one's for you and all the BIG BLUE backers (with a shoutout/credit to my NYGiants lol)...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxBasXSUH1g

Good morning Gentlemen and Jules 

Well, where do you start? Of course the Leafs vs Bolts. I cannot explain it. I guess there is a reason that one team has been to 3 straight cup finals and one team hasn't made it out of the first round since Moby Dick was a minnow. I mean, what did the Leafs expect? Tampa sucked the last 2 months of the season and was going to throw in the towel!. Yes, I think Bunting will get at least 2 games (but will probably be one). No need to panic Leafs. The big question to me is the status of Hedman and Cernak for the Bolts. Those are 2 big D that cannot be replaced. I just saw Tampa ramp up their game, just like every playoff season and the Leafs didn't. One would think they would have put forth a better effort considering their first round history. Hate them or love them, Tampa is very special indeed. 

Too bright of lights for the young Devils and the veteran laden Rags came out and played a playoff type game. I do expect game 2 to be a little different but honestly I said it yesterday, the Devils are still a year away from being that "scary playoff team". If Igor steps up his game, this could be a shorter series than I expected. I didn't see the pace of play like I thought, but I think that was the Rangers game plan. 

I have worked with multiple athletes in multiple sports but hands down the toughest SOB's around are hockey players. What about Barron for the Jets taking a skate to the face, having over 75 stitches and returning to the ice to play the rest of the game!. Hell, I have seen baseball players leave due to a blister. The Jets are a scary team to me in the West. Helley is the best goalie in the West and the line changes that Bowness made the last 2 weeks have come together. I think the match-up favors the Jets in that both teams like to grind but Jets are far superior in net. Long series.

I was totally wrong about the Kraken. Where as they are first timers like the Devils, the team has more veteran players. I can tell you one thing I notice while flipping back and forth to the Vegas/Jets game. The speed in which the Avs/Kraken played was like night and day compared to the speed of the Vegas/Jets game. I didn't see the urgency from the Avs but I bet we will in game 2. They have a guy named Nathan that I think will take over the next game and show up. 

So what to expect tonight? Who was it that was stating team of -120 and over were killing it in the regular season and wondering when the dogs were showing up? Well, they are here but does it continue? 6 of the 8 road teams won first game. Yep, Fab you are correct. Lipps used to always state that home ice didn't mean crap in hockey. I don't really know if the Isles or the Cats can win game 2. If I had to pick, it would be the Isles. What are we going to get from Bob in net tonight? He hasn't played in 2 weeks. Have a feeling this will be a higher scoring game than game 1. B's will get theirs with Bob in net so the Panthers will be pressing. I don't see many goals again tonight in Raleigh. I thought Dallas was the better team after the first period the other night so let's see what happens. I think the Stars come out of the locker room better prepared tonight. Edmonton, to me, you are in the same boat as the Leafs. This is a must have game. While they are capable, you don't want to go down 2-0 to a gritty Kings team. 

What do you want to talk about? 

Playoffs: 2-3 -130 units

Wednesday: 

Dallas ML -150

@Moose6836

 No offense taken. That is what this if for is discussion. I get it. As a Wild fan, I would expect nothing less from you. I could be completely wrong but I see this as a long series. 

Adding 

Isles ML +145

After looking, for those that play O/U, I think the Boston/Florida game has the better chance of all 4 games. I don't see Bob being sharp and I see Florida attempting to apply more pressure where either they will score or give up a lot of odd man rushes. As a tt player, I lean toward Boston's tt and Dallas tt. 

@GASportsDoc

Well, I was intending on sitting out betting on any of the opening games in each series and should have listened to my intuition. Instead, I went 0-3 with the dubious distinction of picking the only two dogs that lost their openers. 

Anyhow, my thoughts on last night's games:

Rangers/Devils - agree with your assessment

Leafs/Bolts - agree with your assessment. The Leafs also got poor goaltending last night so that obviously needs to get better or this could be a short series. For some reason, the Leafs also came out flat but had Samsonov held down the fort a bit better until the team started skating like they did when they scored 2 goals to make it 3-2, it could have been a different result

Jets/Knights - I liked the Jets to win the series pre-flop and last night's game did nothing to make me believe otherwise. 

Avs/Krak - The biggest surprise of all the upsets to me. I believe the Avs will eventually prevail, but it's going to be much harder than I was anticipating.

Hey Doc,

BOL buddy with your plays tonight    And best of luck to everybody here  

I'm gonna give myself a 10-minute tripping penalty and head to the box.  Monday my leans went 1-3 and, of course, I didn't play the W.  Tuesday my leans went 3-1 and, what else, I didn't play any of the Ws and talked myself into the Leafs instead of my Bolts.  When stuff gets messed up like that I gotta call myself out.  It's only gaming, but when it gets this twisted it's not much fun lol.  Wanna focus on getting those -5.4 units back by Sunday evening (maybe some parlays and mlb.)  Cheers !!!

Bergeron not at morning skate

Bunting meeting at 3:00 today

After watching most all of the games last two nights one thing is obvious.  There is very little separating the top teams from the 7 and 8 seeds, especially in the West.  Boston stands out, but after that i dont see a single series going less than 6 games and id wager half of these series go 7.

Might be wise to bet that prop if its still at good plus money...

@GASportsDoc

 Agree with rangers/Devils...Devils might have worst goalie tandem in playoffs...

Completely agree with jets/vgk...expecting helle to a get SO in one of these games...and heavy games as well

Leafs are choke artists...bolts are winners....and vasi prob gonna be difference in series.....bolts stole the game they needed on road...curious to see how they come out game 2

Kraken held avs to 21, 23 and 27 shots in reg.season so they know how to play them tight.....and 5 of 7 have gone under in the 2 teams history....plus grubauer revenge ....I still think avs winning cup but kraken will be tough

@dyamarik

 I'm looking at taking each team to win series 4-3 at between +300 to +600 ...but I might wait a 1 more game as I forget what game they plummeted the odds last year

Well shit, shit, shit... that was not the start too many expected from the Leafs was it? I really thought that Vasi was going to be the goalie that got in the Leafs heads but it turns out it was their own Mr. Samsanov. And when did Bunting turn into Kadri???, and I don't mean the Kadri that played for the Av's either.

Leafs did bag 3 on Vasi while being outplayed so it shows it can be done, he is having a sub-par year (by his standards) so if the Leafs can get settled down , shake off the nerves and get that f*@king monkey off their back .... blah ,blah, blah you know the rest.

Congrats to all those who walked the dogs last night, and congrats to the Kraken for breaking their playoff hymen, they have their win now, so it's time for Vegas to get their collective shit together and defeat the monster.

Oil and Over can be had at +135 tonight and I think that will be my only play ,unless you guys can convince me otherwise.

Doc, you mentioned Dubas going to the Flames, I think? The rumours I read all mentioned Pittsburgh going after him?

Anyhoo , Best of Luck to Everyone tonight