Adam's Sports Picks!

Hi everyone! I'm creating a thread to share and follow ALL of my sports picks rather than making several threads for individual sports. (It will make it easier to follow my overall record) 

Picks will include anything from NBA, NCB, NFL, NCF, NHL, MLB, Soccer, Tennis .... 

I will post write-ups to support my picks as often as possible, but with having to manage this thread around working long hours and scattered shifts, at times I will be limited as to how much information I can provide. 

Best of luck all!!  

Soccer: (The FA Cup)

Cardiff City vs Crystal Palace

Tonight's game in Cardiff will conclude this semi-final matchup with the winner advancing to Wembley to face either Manchester City or Liverpool in the final.

Crystal Palace currently have the advantage after winning the 1st leg 1-0 at home. However, Cardiff are currently placed 3rd out of 24 in the Npower Championship and have boasted a strong record at home this season tallying 9 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in 14 games (69.23% wins). During these home encounters they have scored 27 goals and conceded 16 resulting in a goal difference of +11.

Crystal Palace are currently 14th out of 24 in the Championship, but are potentially just 90 minutes away from a dream cup final at wembley for the first time in 21 years. They defeated Manchester United at Old Trafford against all odds in the Quarter Finals and performed well in front of their home fans beating Cardiff to take a 1-0 lead into tonight's finale.

Although they managed to take a huge scalp in knocking out Man United away from home in the previous round, Palace's overall away record this season hasn't been quite so impressive. They have recorded 6 wins 0 draws and 8 losses in 14 games (42.86% wins) scoring 14 goals and conceding 18 in the process for a goal difference of -4.

(Cardiff are averaging 2.0 goals per game at home compared to Palace's 1.0 goals per game on the road)

With Cardiff trailing by one goal heading into this game, a one goal margin of victory for them in 90 minutes tonight will level the aggregate score and take the tie into extra time and possibly a penalty shoot-out.

Current odds: (90 minutes)
Cardiff -135
Draw +280
Crystal Palace +450

To Qualify: (90 minutes + possible Extra Time + Penalties)
Cardiff +111 
Crystal Palace -110

Cardiff's manager Malky Mackay is expecting to have the luxury of naming an unchanged side for tonight's match with Palace, although the potential returns of McNaughton and Gestede would certainly give the home team a boost. Key striker Kenny Miller will be the danger man from Cardiff in my opinion as he posesses a real hunger, looking to reach a Wembley final for the 1st time in his career.

One thing is for sure, Crystal Palace will have no fear as they head to Cardiff, as the confidence of defeating the Premiership champions on the road will have provided them with the confidence they need to carry forward to tonight's game. However, I believe this is a step too far for Palace, although they certainly have a chance of taking this match to extra-time and possibly penalties if they lose by one goal (which would really make the end result difficult to call).

I don't think Cardiff will let this one slip and I expect them to get the job done in front of their home fans tonight. Darren Ambrose will be the one to watch for Crystal Palace and Cardiff will look to close him out of the game as often as possible. 

To avoid taking the risk of this game going past 90 minutes and becoming 'a bit of a lottery' i'm going to take Cardiff -135 to win (in 90 minutes) rather than Cardiff to Qualify at +111.

Pick: Cardiff City to win -135.

Risking 1.35 Units to win 1 Unit.

Lets start the thread with a winner! Good luck!

(The game starts in approximately 30 minutes)

Nice way to kickstart the thread .. with a win!  

The game panned out pretty much as I expected it too. Cardiff dominated for the majority of the match, couldnt finish the game off in normal time with a second goal but won 1-0 within 90 minutes and advanced to the final via penalties.  

Overall record: 1-0  +1 Unit

I have two more picks for tonight (both tennis) which I will be posting shortly with brief write-ups.

Best of luck tonight all!

Mens Australian Open (Quarter Finals)

Andy Murray vs Kei Nishikori

There are no other players left in the tournament that have had victories in the earlier rounds come as easy for them as they have for Murray so far. His toughest test came in the opening round against Ryan Harrison, where he still managed to win the match in straight sets without even having to face a tie-break .. summing up just how easy life has been for the Scot so far.

The complete opposite can be said for Nishikori, who has shown clear signs of fatigue as he has battled through earlier rounds. More notably his previous round encounter with the French 'powerhouse' Jo-Wilfried Tsongo where he managed to scrape through a five setter thanks to numerous unforced errors from the Frenchman. 

In fact, Nishikori has played 14 out of a possible 15 sets so far this tournament which provides us with a good reason to question his physical state and energy levels heading into this Quarter-Final matchup against a rested opponent in Murray.

I expect Murray to play a smart tactical game (making Nishikori move around the court as much as possible) and to stamp his authority on the match early to rattle off a comfortable straight sets victory.

Pick: Andy Murray to win 3-0 -160

Risking 1.6 Units to win 1 Unit

Mens Australian Open (Quarter Finals)

Novak Djokovic vs David Ferrer

Yes, it's hard to look past Novak right now, not just for this matchup, but for the tournament outright. However, I don't see this match being as straight-forward for Djokovic as the bookmakers appear to be anticipating. 

Ferrer is undoubtedly one of the top players on the tour right now based on current form, and although i'm not expecting him to progress any further in this tournament, I do expect him to provide Novak with some problems throughout the match.

Ferrer looked impressive in his previous round encounter, defeating Richard Gasquet comfortably in straight sets. Djokovic however, failed to display the dominance that many have come to expect from his performances as he dropped a set against the veteran Aussie, Lleyton Hewitt.

In my opinion, the 'total games' line has been set a little too low by bookmakers who are currently advertising the over/under at 31.5 games.

Although I expect Djokovic to prevail in this one, Ferrer should provide enough resistance to force this one over the total.

Pick: Total Games OVER 31.5 -105

Risking 1.05 Units to win 1 Unit

Can't complain about making profit on the opening night of my thread. Dissapointing though, not to get the clean sweep after Ferrer battled hard in the 2nd set against Djokovic forcing a tie-break, to then then collapsed in the 3rd set losing 6-1 to cash the 'under' on the game total finishing at 30. Murray won convincingly in straight sets as I expected, making my overall record currently;

2 Wins 1 Loss (66.6%)

+0.95 Units.

I will be back with more picks later. Best of luck all!  

College Basketball

George Mason Patriots @ Hofstra Pride

The Patriots have been getting the job done recently as a road favourite of 3.5 to 6.0 points, winning and covering the spread in four of their previous five attempts.

They have also produced an impressive record, notching up 27 wins and 4 losses when facing teams below .500 over the past few seasons. Additionally, George Mason have a perfect record in their last 7 outings when checking in off 0-1 days rest.

Hofstra on the other hand, have been dissapointing this year, only managing to cover the spread once in their previous 7 outings one home court. They have also failed to cover the number in 3 of their previous 4 games as a home dog of +3.5 to +6.0 points. 

Viewing the matchup from a Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) aspect, the Patriots boast a record of 11 wins and just 1 loss vs teams ranked 151st or higher, while the Hofstra Pride are have won on just 1 occasion in 8 attempts when facing teams that are ranked 101st or lower.

I expect George Mason to come away with the win and cover tonight.

Pick: George Mason Patriots -4 -110

Risking 1.1 Units to win 1 Unit

Soccer: (The Carling Cup)

Liverpool vs Manchester City

It doesn't take a scientist to work out which of these teams wants it more. Liverpool have dropped too many points against weak opposition in the league this season, taking them out of the title race and placing them amongst several teams battling for a place in Europe next season. 

The Carling Cup is Liverpool's only opportunity to win a trophy this year and they have the momentum going into tonight's encounter after winning the opening leg 1-0 at the Etihad Stadium. They have the advantage in the aggregate score and will also have the advantage of playing tonight's decider in front of their home fans.

Manchester City however, currently occupy 1st place in the league, which without a doubt remains the #1 priority for this team. Question marks begin to surround their commitment towards winning the Carling Cup with Mancini making some surprising changes to the starting squad for the opening leg at the Etihad.

Liverpool will certainly display higher levels of motivation and commitment as they look to close the game out and progress to the Wembley final.

Kenny Dalglish, in relation to tactics, will set his team up to be solid defensively and frustrate the dangerous Manchester City offense which they are more than capable of doing, looking to catch them out on the counter attack in the process. 

Luis Suarez will be absent from the Liverpool squad as he is currently serving his lengthy suspension following the incident with Patrice Evra. This will limit their offensive weapons and put pressure on Andy Carrol, who the fans feel have a lot to prove following his £35M transfer from Newcastle United.

I expect Manchester City to be strong on offensively, dominating possession and creating numerous chances but believe they will find Liverpool potent defense difficult to break down in a low-scoring encounter.

Pick: UNDER 2.5 goals -120

Risking 1.2 Units to win 1 Unit

NBA

Atlanta Hawks @ San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have been a tremendous investment at home over the past couple of seasons and have been especially dominant in previous meetings with the Atlanta Hawks.

San Antonio boast an impressive record of 9 wins 1 loss straight up and 6 wins 4 losses against the spread so far this season at the AT&T Center, winning by 11.6 points on average.

To say that the Spurs have had the Hawks number in their previous encounters would be an understatement as San Antonio have dominated the series to the tune of 13 consecutive wins and 12 wins 1 loss against the spread. Those 13 wins came by margins of 14, 15, 29, 22, 13, 39, 16, 24, 14, 15, 6, 15 and 16 points resulting in an average 18.3 point victory.

Atlanta have been inconsistent on their travels this season, recording 0 wins and 4 losses against the spread in their last 4 road outings when underdogs of 4.5 points or less.

The Spurs have played back-to-back road games since suffering their first home defeat of the season last friday and will be looking to make amends for that loss when they take to the court tonight.

The Spurs fans have high expectations for a team that managed to record a staggering 36 wins with just 5 losses on their home court last season.

San Antonio bounces back tonight with a win and cover.

Pick: San Antonio Spurs -4.5 -105

Risking 2.10 Units to win 2 Units. 

I have decided to upgrade my stake on George Mason -4 points.

*Now risking 2.2 Units to win 2 Units*

Well, after a dissapointing start yesterday with my soccer selection going down, it was nice to finish off the night with two basketball winners bringing in 4 units of profit combined

More than happy with starting the thread by making profit in consecutive nights, lets hope it continues going forward

I have a couple of potential selections in line for today but will continue to research matchups and post my picks around 6pm.

Overall record: 4 Wins 2 Losses (66.6%)

+3.85 Units

Best of luck today all!

Good start there to the tread making

BOL to you and hope it keeps on rolling for you

NBA

Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic

The Magic will be fired up for this one without question following an embarrassing 56-87 defeat to the Celtics just a few days ago. During that game, Orlando were held to a franchise low in both points scored and field goal percentage, (24.6%) not to mention that the Celtics accomplished this without the services of 5 players including Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo. If that's not enough to get this Orlando team hungry for revenge then i'm not sure what will.

Aside for that blip, Orlando have been impressive this season, opening up a record of 12 wins and 5 losses including 6 wins and 2 losses on home court, where they have been giving up a mere 88.1 points per game on 41.9% shooting.

On the other hand, exluding their impressive win over the Magic on Monday night, Boston have failed to meet expectations as they have started the season with 7 wins and 9 losses. During this span they have really struggled to get things going offensively averaging just 89.4 points per game.

JJ Reddick spoke after the Boston game a few nights ago explaining the problems that the Magic have had trying to work offensive possessions against the Celtics suffocating defense which ranks 2nd in the league allowing just 88.3 points per game.

Orlando have been shooting an outstanding percentage from behind the arc so far this season which has them ranked 1st in the league making 9.8 per game on average. However, the Celtics are a team that defend well against the three point shot allowing just 4.8 per game (the 2nd lowest in the league).

To say that defense is a key factor in this game is an understatement. Boston will be relying on their impressive defensive ability to help them keep the game close which will be important as they are likely to continue their struggles offensively with Rondo, Allen and Jermaine O'neal all expected to sit this one out.

I expect Orlando to make amends for the nightmare encounter that they had with Boston on Monday night and expect them to make a statement on their home court, recording a comfortable victory in a low scoring game.

Pick: Game Total UNDER 176 -120

Risking 1.25 Units to win 1 Unit.

Mens Australian Open (Semi Finals)

Andy Murray vs Novak Djokovic

Here we go again .. Andy Murray in another Grand Slam Semi-Final, just two matches away from becoming a Slam title winner, a status which has eluded him on several occasions already in his career.

The question does remains when, or in fact if, Murray will ever become a Grand Slam champion. He will be determined to silence the critics in Australia and prove that he has what it takes to win a major title but he faces the tough task of having to surpass both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal to be successful this time round.

One aspect that does favour Murray is the fact that he is in perfect condition after being dealt possibly the easiest route he's ever taken to reach a major semi-final. No marathon five setters, no problems other than the minor blip of dropping his opening set of the tournament to Ryan Harrison. The only potential 'let down' scenario here is, having not been tested so far in the tournament, Murray will go from one extreme to the next, from plain sailing through the early rounds to facing the world #1 in the Australian Open Semi-Final.

However, I don't expect Murray to be defeated with ease in this match. He will be extremely fired up for this game, hoping to make amends for the comfortable straight sets defeat handed to him by Djokovic in last years final.

Although I believe Djokovic will advance through to the final to face Nadal, I do expect Murray to cause Djokovic some problems and make it more difficult for the Serbian than some bookmakers appear to be expecting.

The 'total games' market has been posted with value on the 'over' as it currently sits at 37.5

I expect this one to last 4 sets or more which would make it more likely for the total to hit 38+ games. Djokovic 7-5 4-6 6-4 6-3 is a realistic scoreline which would make the total land on 41 games which is roughly what i'm expecting.

Pick: Total Games OVER 37.5 -120 

Risking 1.8 Units to win 1.5 Units. 

Really good night last night as both of my selections cashed, resulting in 3 consecutive days making profit.

Overall Record: 6 Wins 2 Losses (75%)

+6.25 Units 

Just one selection from me for tonight. (Apologies for not providing a write-up with this one, rushed for time today)

Pheonix Suns @ Portland Trailblazers

Pick: Game Total UNDER 193 -110

Risking 1.1 Units to win 1 Unit