AFL - RD 9

Last Wk: 13-5
YTD: 43-39

Sydney +11.5
Geel -30.5

GWS -15.5 - Play of the week

Port +23.5

OK, which of these sides lose, if any:

Cats lose to Magpies?

Roos lose to Blues?

Dees lose to Lions?

Saints lose to Bombers?

I know it's the AFL, and big upsets happen, but can you see an upset in one of those four?

Don't think any of those lose.

HoH, IMO all are guaranteed except Roos. I could see the Blues upsetting them.

@Peekay Eagles shouldn't be laying that many points on the road to anyone (well, most anyone), but esp a Power team coming off a loss.

You want a 4th "sure" win, take the Giants

North will destroy the blues. Casboult broke his leg and Kreuzer is out for 4 weeks.

And yet, and yet... If that statement was infallible, they would have lost to Port with those injuries and being down over 2 goals. Roos? Well, there would be zero talk of one more Q allowing the Bombers the time needed.

Saints the weakest of those four, by Essendon averages 8 goals a game and that's not getting it done against anyone.  80 points will see off the Bombers and St. Kilda can get that.

Some people saying Carlton can get a sniff of the Roos, but Cassy and Kreuzer out, even the Blues die-hards are saying they are hopeless this round.  And they are usually a very positive bunch.

You'd like to think Collingwood has found a bit of form lately, but the times they've actually looked coherent have been against crap sides.  Geelong is, along with GWS, the in-form team of the comp right now and should easily bury the Pies.

Dees should have no issue against the Lions away from the Gabba.

All four of thee should win, but man, there is always a snake in the grass waiting to strike.

Liking Melbourne -32.5 as the best bet of the round.

Anyone venturing on the Crows -50.5?  The Suns have almost lost by 100 three rounds in-a-row and the Crows are coming off of a bitter defeat.  They will be irate.

Surely the Suns don't get blown out four rounds in-a-row?  No?

???

Kreuzer played out the entire game and kicked the winning goal, so they were only down Casboult, and despite his marking ability, I think they were better off because he sure as hell can't kick.

Think the Crows has to be a play... Seems very likely Ablett and Nicholls are not out too on top of Saad who did a hamstring. They'd seriously be fielding a second string team.

Crows -59.5 now, guess the telegraph made it, haha!

Adding
Over 151.5 Freo / Richmond

Hi there lads, what's your idea on Home Ground Advantage for all the interstate teams based on a point value? Eg: GWS are 12 points better at home. Be good to try and evaluate these numbers into the lines.

By the way, my plays so far this week are Sydney +12.5, Melbourne -26.5, Melb/GWS/NM 3 leg multi, GWS -4.5/NM -9.5.

Yanking the Freo Over, weather is shit. Under is the play, but I'm not taking it yet.

Those are good plays Junior, though I'm not a multi player myself generally.

I don't have specifics on home field. Adelaide Oval and Domain have got to be the biggest. I reckon about 10 for Hawks at G.

Adding:
Swans 1Q +1.5

Adding:

Swans +3.5 game line

Yeah the home ground numbers I did years ago but I haven't continued it on for at least 4-5 years. I might make that a project for the week. How many seasons guys? 2015 and 2014?

The more seasons the better Id think.

Agree on the line moves, and glad I made a few plays early again. Crows line will likely be one I play, but it may yet go up.

We'll be around all weekend mate. You making any plays? Who's your team?

Yep, I'll have a few more plays. I go for the Hawks, bit of a low scorer tonight so far! 8-2!

SWANNIES!!! 

Collingwood v. Geelong +39.5 187.5 MCG
Well, I had grabbed the -30.5 early fortunately, but apparently just missed the -36.5 that was available a few hours ago. Nevertheless, I see this as a 50+ point win. Public money is the only reason the line hasn't risen that high (IMO), but the sharps have come in to push it to where it is now. This Pies team is simply not a good one, and is immature. They just won big over a dumpster-fire team (see later pick), and now face the best one in the comp. The two top-4 teams the Pies have faced this season produced margins over 60 points. Rounds 3 and 4 saw losses to Saints and Dees by 30+ points. Most importantly factoring into my taking the higher line additionally: motivation is there for the Cats. Was reminded of this last night: Pies' win over the Cats late last season kept the Cats out of finals.
New Play: Cats -39.5
Live Play Watch: 4Q line. Cats are INSANE in the fourth, delivering an average 24 point margin. Read that again, it's a fact. :)

Gold Coast v. Adelaide +56.5 209.5 Metricon
I kind of liked the the opening line of -49.5, but now that Ablet and others are out and the line is only a goal higher, I have to play this with the Crows off a disappointing loss at home. Dees just beat them there by 73 two weeks ago.
New Play: Crows -56.5

Port Adelaide v. WCE +12.5 187.5 Oval
Another early play that will hopefully pay off, I took Port +23.5 on Monday or Tuesday, since WC shoiuldn't be laying that many against anyone away, who is also desperate for a win, and has some offensive potency. I grabbed another +19.5 on Thursday. I was about to take the +12.5 as well, but will not. Eagles' away losses/drubbings have been to the best teams in the comp. Power lost by 48 to Cats here in Rd 5. Power are playing better, certainly, and I think they cover under 2 goals. But I'll stick with what I've taken.
No new plays.

NM v. Carlton -28.5 184.5 Ethihad
This game is a tough one to call, with the injuries to the Blues the cause. Have made money on the Blues, who just seem to find a way. As much as everyone is on the Roos bandwagon in this game given the Blues' injuries, I just can't lay 5 goals with a team that won the past two matches there by 7 and 14 against the Saints and Bombers. Blues are too well coached. What the Roos are excellent at, however, is the fast start. I'll keep playing this until it loses.
New Play: Roos 1Q -6.5

Freo v. Richmond +9.5 149.5 Domain
Another line that's moved another 3 points in the last few hours. At +6.5 I was going to pass. At +9.5, with shitty weather, I'm going to take it. This may be a totally wrong perception, but I feel like this is the Tigers bandwagon driving this line, off a nice win v. the Swans and with some key player back. However, the Giants only won by 18 there a few weeks ago. Tiges are too inconsistent generally to be laying this many points the other side of the country.
New play: Dockers +9.5

As always, good luck with your plays today. If you have some insights on games, don't hesitate sharing.