The much too soon CD Newsletter - Week 1

@undermysac

 
tampa and Houston 

I have no dog in this fight, since I have a self imposed ban on myself and I am not allowed to bet totals, so I am only passing on this info to you fine gents,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,but it is accurate info,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Detroit's week 1 games have gone OVER the listed total 12 straight years.........plus

KC's week 1 games are 7-0-1 to the OVER since 2015

Obviously none of that truly matters, and a new trend to the UNDER could potentially start tonight.  If only Dr. Van Nostrand had an angle on this, maybe I could lift my totals ban.  Still probably not though, laws are there for a reason.  Know thyself.

I am however on Detroit at +7 @ -105 from the summer when the line first got released on Lowvig (I posted that in VanZack's thread awhile ago for any record keepers).  Then on August 22nd I bet it again at +6.5 @ +100 odds. Both seem like good numbers now, hindsight and all.  I will leave those 2 bets alone and hope for the best. One thing I think I can be sure of, is that Dan Campbell will have those guys up for this game.  Goff is more efficient than anyone will ever give him credit for.  Looking forward to see how they use new TE LaPorta and new RB Gibbs along with St. Brown.  They have scary personnel now, and Goff is experienced enough to find the open guy.  Gibbs is going to be used as a WR2/3 in many formations, David Montgomery is a very similar player to Gibbs from a positional usage standpoint, except Gibbs runs a 4.36 - 40 yard dash. Montgomery only ran a 4.63 at the combine, but has good hands out of the backfield.  I'd guess there will be motion all night long from Detroit's RBs and new TE, trying to get KC to tip their hand on defense. Both RBs and the new TE are fast enough to be split out wide during presnap motion like Shanahan used to do with Shannon Sharpe, and force the defense to follow with a LB or Safety (showing man/zero), or just rotate the CB wider (showing zone). If I had this personnel to play with, I would be flooding zones all night and dink and dunk to the open guy.  Long handoffs over and over.  This offense could be really scary when Jameson gets back from suspension for betting.  As it stands now Amon Ra, Gibbs, Montgomery, and LaPorta are a tough group for any team to stop.  Lions also added Cam Sutton from Pitt, and CJ Gardner Johnson from the Eagles by way of the Saints to make their secondary more palatable, Manny Moseley is not playing (signed from Niners), 2 knee surgeries and just coming off PUP, should be ready in 2 weeks or so.  

All of that may not matter if we see vintage Mahomes making superstars out of average but speedy wideouts.  The best thing for Detroit could be if they err on the side of caution and think long term and hold Kelce out of this game.  Even still, a healthy Kadarius Toney, mixed in with Skyy Moore, MVS, and the rookie Rice will give them plenty of targets to go along with their pass catching RB trio.  McKinnon's TD prop is calling my name even more if Kelce doesn't play.  

Lots of young starters on D for both teams.  We could really see a shootout, remember that Rams/Chiefs game a couple years back in primetime when the score was over 100 points combined??  Goff was the QB then also for the Rams.  Hoping for that sort of fun game tonight.  

This should be a great game, a blowout in either direction would amaze me.  If the stage is not too bright for Detroit, I think they can hang, but I never bet heavy against Mahomes, ever, so this is just a half unit play for me on each number (7 and 6.5) If I didn't get them early I would not even bet it now at the 4.5/5 area. BOL to all of you on opening night.  

additional info:

week 1 thursday chalk are 17-3 L20 on ML

Superbowl winner when chalk week 1 in following year is 14-2 on ML

Chiefs and Mahomes are 30-4 as home chalk on ML since 2019, and 18-1 vs NFC teams

Lions LBs are bad at coverage, and so are the KC LBs.

Last game Kelce missed, Mahomes was 23/30 for 258yds 3TD 0Int

Detroit total over week 1 for 12 straight years

KC total over week 1 is 7-0-1 since 2015 

No blowout, cmon, just keep it close and entertaining, something like 61-58 is acceptable and would make me happy.

Also, Goff is 6-0 ATS in his career in week 1 games.

Somethin' gotta give in a few hours.

Chiefs -4
Goff TDs o1.5

Brief explanation in the mains:  https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/tnf---chiefs-vs-lions-103761626

I mentioned some of those stats too. Reid is just really good with a lot of time off -- whether it's coming off a bye, or Game 1 of the regular season. My heart hopes the Lions win, my brain says the Chiefs do (and cover the current spread) and it would make my wallet happy. 

Goff now 7-0 ATS week 1 in his career.

Not the way I thought it would go down but I will take the wins.  Kadarius Toney was the best player for Detroit tonight.  

On to sunday

I don't care how he's listed i seriously doubt Mark Andrews plays Sunday. 

Lots of good TE's wont need him..

30-10....

Isaiah Likely super lowkey good Ravens backup TE.  Coastal Carolina Chanticleer.  Part of the famed "Heiligh Likely" receiving duo at Coastal.  WR Jaivon Heiligh (pronounced Highly) and TE Isaiah Likely

Good unintentional humor when they stood next to each other on the field.  There is an article or 2 about it on the interwebs.  Good reading.  They also won me some bets years ago.  

Likely would probably (lol) get 20-25 snaps per game on almost any other team.  Surprisingly they didn't utilize Likely (lol) more last year, still very young, maybe that changes this year.  

Stuff writes itself.

The pundits (esp the NBC lads) are the gift that keeps on and on and on...giving.

Sitting in 6th place after day 1 of the bass tournament. Top 12 pay out.

Big day tomorrow, I need some luck from the PB folks.

@undermysac

 When the wind’s from the west tis when fishing is the best.  Wind from the East ‘tis when fishing is the least.

Good luck  Buddy!

Well done

@undermysac

 I have some relatives that would probably be willing to plant some weights in the fish.  These are the knuckle dragging type of Italians that the FBI is speaking of when they say things like "If they put the same effort they put into organized crime into legitimate business these guys would be millionaires.",,,,,,,,,,,,

This sort of thing is right up their alley Sac.......they would probably do it for free.  You name the lake.  Keep an eye out for 3 guys in tracksuits.  We got ya bud.  

j/k,,,,,,but not really,,,,,,,,,,,

take that tourney down yo,,,,,,,,fish like when ya sing to them,,,,,,try some Lionel Richie.  I have been told fish love Lionel Richie, and Kenny G.  

Held on, stayed consistent. 7th place for $1200. 

Now all I need is the Bears to dog jam the Packers to fulfill my weekend. Wouldn't mind winning a couple bets either.

I know a tight end that needs you who is currently in jail

I think the Bears get it done.

@undermysac

you mean 12 dollars.......you don't want the IRS reading covers forums  

btw, for anyone who had my red raiders tonight I'm sorry.  one of the worst beats I've seen.   luckily, we have the NFL tomorrow so more bad beats can be had by all