Another Mass Shooting

Maybe answers will come ….

but maybe not ….

or maybe the way people stay in the same lazy spots and behave will be traded for calm …..

respectful conversation …. even if there’s differences ….

and grievances or opinions that conflict with what you’ve written…..

let’s see if they can achieve what’s been decreed or if they scheme and preen manipulative ……

Because i have a dream , and for me , it’s to believe we can king through this 

@spockgato

 Are there really any answers? Especially good ones? 

Sometimes you get surprised , like what’s inside of a CrackerJack box 

Clearly not the first time this fact has been stated but it gets forgotten.........often

And how do you feel about this:

"However, we shouldn't punish law abiding citizens for the actions of criminals."

This is more often forgotten for sure, or simply ignored. 

@spockgato

No sir.  I was not surprised, yet again. Oh well, what do you do? 

the southern states being almost entirely  red states

This is all too awkward and weird …..

cuz who here walks on water with a cool beard ?……

and carries the cross …..

across all of fucking Nazareth in tattered up cloth ?

cuz I’m lost …..

and unable to find higher ground …..

So why do you fucking wisenheimers think that you’re the Messiah how…..

on Earth does no one fucking answer ?

are you the Son of Man or something what’s up ? cuz that’s just fucking slander ……

worse than saying there isn’t an elephant in the room……

I’d say to hell with this shit but my rebelliousness has me consumed …..

cuz we’re talking grown men ……

who won’t talk to each other like some motherfuckers with only a cold shoulder to extend ……

what about this guys ?……

Extend this instead 

this is pure lunacy ….. interact for Christ’s sake because we are all God’s children . You guys talking around everything and everyone are on some 3rd grade recess shit . I feel bad for you .  It’s not good to run from your fears . Didn’t any of your elders ever tell you that . Damn .

Are all the cities red cities? Are all the counties/parishes red?

pretty sure not every single last one of them r 100% red     

I'm pretty sure as well.

Mass-shootings, gun crimes, violent crime, and non-violent crime are separate issues.  These have some inter-twining causes and results.  But they are largely separate issues with separate causes.

It is a very Leftist tactic to conflate two, or several, issues when trying to discuss one issue.

This simply displays unreasonable ineptitude and shows a lack of understanding of the one particular issue being discussed.

It is a sophmoric attempt to make a valid point to enhance their perception on a point, usually with no data or evidence to back it up.  What it really shows is ignorance on the subject.

Mass-shooting by-and-large have very different causes than regular violent gun crimes.

So, now when a Leftist cannot discuss the mass-shooting issue itself, they switch to include all gun crimes.

It does not work at all. 

That’s what I heard too 

I have written on this extensively and provided much data and plenty of empirical evidence.  This is another sampling of some of that:

The subject of violent crime in the US is often blamed on gun ownership and poverty.

We research the relationship between these and other areas to get to the real story.

The US has a high violent crime rate compared to other developed countries. This has been known for a long time but tends to be blamed on various factors without any analysis being done to verify if these widely blamed factors are the cause.

Different groups with different political leanings typically blame specific items.

For example, the Left will blame poverty and gun ownership and not video games and race; the Right will blame race and video games and not poverty and gun ownership.

They view it exactly opposite of one another.

The proposal of firearms being a deterrent to violent crime is something we test

There are many issues with the view on the Right that more guns produce less crime.  Among them:

Right off the bat, this estimate is ridiculous. There are only roughly 16,000 murders per year in the US. If 2.5 million violent altercations led to the guns being shown or drawn, the US would look like the OK Corral. And there would be far more murders because far more of these interactions would have a fatal outcome, or one of the two individuals (or both) get shot.

The idea of the research and the NRA is that the brave NRA member brandishes their weapon, and the criminal, realizing his error, tucks their tail between his legs and depart. This estimate further requires that nearly all the 2.5 million individuals did not report their encounters.

And:

There is another problem.

When a gun-toting criminal threatens a victim, they will tend to have their gun drawn, or at least very close to their hand. How will the likely victim be able to so consistently pull out their weapon in a way that leads the gun-toting criminal to leave the scene?

Are the 2.5 million likely victims aware of how much they have increased their risk by pulling out a firearm? There are only 16,000 murders per year. Even if this were all true, it still would not pay to risk a gun battle. Even a person with a gun is better off keeping the gun hidden and handing over their wallet or car keys. Firearms are rarely used in rapes; they are generally used to murder to take property directly. If a gun-toting criminal has a gun trained on you, and they have not yet used it, it is quite likely the intent is to acquire your property.

We will show in the analysis below why we have concluded that gun ownership does not deter violent crime. But a second quotation from Scientific America on this topic promotes the converse, and we don’t see how the data we reviewed support this conclusion either.

Gun advocates argue the causes are reversed: surges in violent crime lead people to buy guns, and weapons do not create the surge. But if that were true, gun purchases would increase in tandem with all kinds of violence. In reality, they do not.”

The following table was compiled from a combination of Wikipedia statistics combined with individually looking up the Average Income of each state and the percentage of the state with a black population. The reason for this is that politically left-leaning and politically right-leaning individuals disagree vehemently as to whether violent crime is due to race versus income or poverty. By including both factors in the table, we were able to measure both variables. The US has three major racial groups. White, black, and Hispanic. Hispanics are highly associated with property crime, but not violent crime. The racial group most associated with violent crime is easily blacks. Other races, as well as blacks, know this. This table would allow us to test what potentially neither political left-leaning nor right-leaning individuals would like to be tested.

Each state was looked at by average income, black percentage, gun ownership, murder rate/100k. 

The tricky part here is to get the average person to understand the mathematics.  It is fairly straightforward.  But the tricky part is where they use covariance to sift though the data.

So let us take a look at the results.

Covariance Analysis Results of Variables to US Murder Rate

The variables that are frequently debated (Versus the Black Population Variable) as driving the US murder rate.

There are several relationships measured in this matrix, so let us focus first on the primary research question.

The Primary Research Question #1: Are Guns Correlated with Violent Crime?

The first question we wanted to answer is gun ownership related to the murder rate. The covariance value of .02 says that while technically positive, the relationship is so weak that it can be said to virtually not exist.

This cuts both ways.

It cuts against politically left-leaning individuals because controlling guns will not appreciably improve the US murder rate. However, this also cuts against politically right-leaning individuals because it means that their proposal that guns stop violence is implausible to be true. If more guns reduced violent crime, we would see a significant negative value instead of .02. As gun ownership increases in a state, we will see a decrease in violent crime.

That is not what we see.

Research Question #2: Is Income or Poverty Related to Violent Crime?

The statistics we used were for an overall state. And while poverty is explicitly related to violent crime, at -.01, it does not show itself as a predictor in the state-by-state comparison. For example, West Virginia has the fourth-lowest income and one of the highest levels of gun ownership but has a low murder rate.

If politically left-leaning individuals were correct in their explanations for violence West Virginia would be one of the murder centers of the US, as according to left-leaning individuals,

• West Virginia has all of the traditional predictors of having high violent crime. It has low income/high poverty and high gun ownership.
• Maryland has one of the highest incomes but more murders than West Virginia, even though it has less than half the gun ownership.
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Research Question #3: What is the Impact of Race on Violent Crime?

Enormous.

Unless there is a hidden value within the race that is not poverty or gun ownership (which we tested for), the race is the number one predictor of violent crime. The value is .82, which is the most robust relationship in the matrix by far. It is the only factor we need to predict violent crime.

For example, the other two items (poverty and guns), neither register is a blip.

There is something about blacks that makes them far more predisposed to violent crime than any other race in the US. And of course, the number one victims of violent crime are also blacks. This is why the racial group in the US that should be most angry about violent crime is blacks, as they are the most common victims of violent crime. However, blacks are also the number one racial group at victimizing other races with violent crime, as we cover in the article.

Guns and Income

One of the surprising results of the research was to find that income is strongly negatively associated with gun ownership. Guns tend to be more prevalent in rural settings, where guns are used in hunting and the general culture. And incomes are lower in rural areas. Therefore it makes sense that there would be a correlation between these two items. However, of the two groups, while likely similarly deluded on many aspects of the debate, the pro-gun advocates are closer to the truth. It is far more the people who are responsible than the prevalence of guns.

Conclusion

Both politically left-leaning and politically right-leaning individuals spend a lot of time pointing to phantom reasons for violent crime. And they do not know because they have not bothered to run the numbers as was performed for this article.

The primary predictor of violent crime in the US is race. Some might try to backdoor into this article by stating that the real reason is poverty, but we must emphasize that income was already controlled for in the covariance. And individual states show this relationship. West Virginia has the fourth-lowest income of all states and one of the highest gun ownership rates, yet it has one of the lower levels of murder.

And politically left-leaning individuals need to remember their position: race does not influence violent crime; the only issue is poverty or income.

Those people are wrong.

There might be people who do not like the results, but the covariance was performed by an application that does not have a political leaning and does not try to rig numbers to meet a preconceived objective. We entered what is agreed upon and widely published statistics for each state, and when we ran the covariance, this is the outcome it produced.

I tried to break these down into simple and easy to read and, hopefully, to understand segments.

This is their final statement on it:

The obsession with violent crime demonstrates a fundamental innumeracy in the general population. The US makes the lives of its citizens far more complicated than it needs to be and allows all manner of abuse by powerful entities against the common person, animals, and the environment. There is not a corner of the US that is not touched by some mean-spirited law or policy designed to benefit the few at the extreme expense of the many. Yet all of this seems to be swept under the rug when the topic of violent crime is discussed as a topic. Many changes could be made to society that would reduce the rate of violent crime and all of the other negative statistics as well. However, there is far less interest in these mechanisms and little interest in analyzing the real versus projected reasons for violent crime.