Is this really happening?

@ABooksNightmare

  Good find....

crickets  

you ok ? Come here , I’ll give you a hug , but be careful I might crack a rib and make a woman out of it .

What in the dirty diaper that is wrapped around your loin area are you even talking about ?

Were we speaking ? I wasn’t even engaging with you ? If I was your girlfriend and you popped the question I’d be saying “ No “ is what I’m getting at .

Why are you attacking me ?

I swear ( often , but only when I’m out of church ) why is it that everyone is so antagonistic ?

why can’t you guys be like Mony ? And meet me in the Middle ? When we have conversations ?

@spockgato

 I AM PERFECT  Thank you for asking. Are you ok or are you melting

down like DONALD TRUMP AND JD VANCE? 

I’m pretty good right now . Thanks . Earlier not so much . I stubbed my toe . That was the roughest part of the day . But you know how us real men do it . I just limped around like a motherfucker for a few minutes and cursed at the devil like a real G . You feel ok ? Why you buzzing around me ? Because I might be the shit but you definitely ain’t fly . Feel me ? What’s up my man ? I’m not pickin’ up what you’re droppin’ down . You got some kind of syndrome or something ?

@ABooksNightmare

 Good stuff 

People fail to realize how successful and respected he was up there at that time.  

A very clear perspective and a perspicacious analysis of the situation at the time.  Koch was a die-hard and brash New Yorker as well, so it is easy to see how they butted heads.  

Like a guy said about him:  he hit the trifecta.  He was successful in business, successful in entertainment, and successful in politics.  Not many people are even that successful at the one thing they are supposedly good at.

Even back then King was asking him why he still kept going, because he did not need to.  For the question to come up even back then about him getting into politics, you can tell enough people around him respected him enough to push it forward.

Not many people can randomly handle questions outside of their field of expertise as well as he did.  You can tell he had thought about those things before, and not just as a developer.  Always good to hear a well-versed person's thoughts, whether you agree with them or not.

Never really got to see King on TV much.  But I got to hear his radio show from time to time.  I did not really agree with him on a lot of issues.  But I always thought he was well prepared and did a very good interview and was always very knowledgeable about the subject and the person he was interviewing.

@BigGame90

 Post 122

The "trillions" in debt you need to quantify, it is the ADDITIONAL debt, not the total because our government has been on a stairway to heaven debt wise pretty much since the crash in 2002 so to quantify the impact you have to separate the extra debt that was used for stimmy and that was gone in the following period.

For example say in 2019 they spent 1T in deficit debt spending, well if in 2020 the deficit debt spending was 3T then that is an additional 2T in spending. Now of that how much went into the pockets of the consumer? You have to separate that...AND you have to say how much of it was replacement of lost wages due to Covid and business shut down. People were out of work and the stimmy was not casino cash where they were working and then the stimmy was free fresh blow it cash, for MANY MANY people it was replacement of lost income and for MANY the stimmy was not equal to lost income, I seem to recall that the stimmy for MOST was under what they were making. 

Also keep in mind that MANY people were hoarding cash not knowing how long this would go on and when work would return, I know my family hunkered down and pretty much did nothing, no outside spending but groceries so no movies or going out dining or mall shopping or much of anything, we were in save mode.

So can you quantify how much of the stimmy money was a NET INCREASE for consumer spending? Not replacement cash but money on top of their regular standard of living that had not been impacted that they went and spent?

I would strongly suggest that the high majority of stimmy cash went to people who were in a bad situation and was not bonus casino cash that fed into the economy and triggered inflation. The entire premise that stimmy funds caused this is implausible and laughable honestly.

isnt amazing how these magas that keep crying about the border over and over again(i bet 99 percent of them have never even ran into a immigrant in their lives,lol) but one say one word about the guy(trumpy) who killed the border bill, all because he didnt want biden to get any credit for fixing the border.  Hey magas your idol doesnt give a shit about our country, he only cares about himself.  Someday you will wake from your comas and realize you got duped by a con artist. Democrats let republicans write the bill and was the best border bill in last 50 years, but diaper don killed it.  Trump is a traitor and that makes his maga supporters traitors also.

In a new projection from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the federal budget deficit – the gap between government revenue vs. spending – will be $1.9 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year.

And NO, 2019 deficit did not reach $1 trillion. But let's say.

@UNIMAN

 Kinda proves my point. I detailed it pretty deep regarding the reality of how much "stimmy" cash went to ADDITIONAL consumer spending, thus inflation. I would suggest that very little Biden stimmy cash was free casino cash that turbo boosted the consumer and pushed inflation based on DEMAND specifically. 

@wallstreetcappers

 Do you see what Kelly's doing in the college football thread? Bumping every old post he can find to shove Bridge's thread down. Bad enough they bump Fubah's thread to top, that I can easily skip, but screwing with the few good posters (because he made a political bet) is stupid.

These idiots are gonna ruin this site. 

Send in user reports when you have issues, but in this case I agree with your observation.

@BigGame90

The inflation causes and effects and the amount of each is very dynamic and has changed a bit coming out of the Pandemic.

For sure, the effect from the stimulus was more severe in the USA, in part, because of the amount of stimulus there.

Most of the people I know put it around 1-2%.  I think Obama’s old guy Furman had it slightly higher, around the middle of ’22.

But a large part of the inflation can be tied to the Pandemic.  

When the government shut down the economy and then reopened it — that automatically caused an issue.  Never before has a recovery like that been seen.  Because it was not economically-driven, but a governmental decision that paused everything.

Whether one is for or against the shutdown for ‘safety’ reasons or not, it should be a learning lesson for future situations like that and what might be expected.

Obviously, early in the Pandemic people did not spend as much because they simply could not.  Then when things opened back up and they could spend, the issues with production halts started to show up.  Even the rest of the world halts in production showed up.

Then all of a sudden people had savings but still could not go and do as much because they were afraid of the Pandemic — so they bought stuff and lots of it.  So, naturally, the shortages became evident.  But people spent on things they could get to remodel their house, food and things of that sort.

Then you have the stimulus checks added to those funds as well.  So, even though people did not go spend on activities or travel, they bought a lot of goods.

For a long period of time — several months — the ‘real spending’ on goods was well above trend, like 14-18%, or so.

You can go back and look at the chart of the PCE and the expenditures are well above the, already upward-sloping, trend line.

Of course, no economist was really expecting a jump to 8-9% inflation. Then came Putin’s invasion.  Quite a few folks I see estimate that adding at least 1% to it.  I think it could possibly be a bit higher, even.  Because this made sure the cost of energy stayed inflated, and this matters to folks a lot.

So, Biden nor Trump cannot be totally blamed for it.  Other than they were both the guy in charge at the time and it can be said maybe they received bad advice.  

The acquiescence of them both to go along with the shutdowns and kick in $6T into the economy was not good.

But in their defense, that is what the ‘experts’ are hired for.  It was easy to see how people got scared and wanted the government to do something to protect them.  Then it was easy to see how the people in government thought they would be doing a good thing to help the folks and the economy out by paying them and ‘stimulating’ the economy.  

@BigGame90

So, when Biden and others say that the inflation is a global issue, they are correct.  But the difference in the USA from other countries can absolutely be put at the feet of Biden and his ‘advisors’ for the high amount of stimulus.

The USA spent over a 1/4 of GDP, whereas, most other countries averaged less than 10% of GDP.

This is evident when you go back and look at the tighter gap in the USA between overall inflation and core inflation, than any other country.  Most countries it was half, or less.  Whereas, in the USA, it was 9% to 6%, roughly.

Most of the economists will tell you that the stimulus added to the inflation, especially early on.  But they try to couch it by saying it had been depressed for far too long.

Even when the SF FED gave their estimate of 3%, they were anxious to qualify it by saying they did not have enough data yet.

I say all of that, because the economists all knew it would increase inflation but did not expect it to be that much.  So, now they try to justify not being right or aware of how drastic the effect would be.  Some are now owning up to that fact and saying they should have estimated it better.  

But, in their defense as well, this was a unique situation and hard to model.

The bottom line was that there was no economic reason for a sudden downturn — it was for other reasons.  Whether, safety, fright, political — does not matter — it was not something that could be foreseen to that extent.

Then when the economy opened back up and the things were still in place for folks to spend and you give them more money and you give businesses more money and things are not being produced and there are shortages — you have the sudden mess we had.

With all of that and the costs going up, folks have started to rely more and more on credit cards.  Now the default rates are going up.

With all of that being said, I think the FED does lower the rates.  Too many things are looking good with the data.  Also, no matter what they say, they do fell the political pressure during an election cycle to do this also.  I think they lower them In Sept, for sure.  Most likely, not in AUG.  But I think 2-3 times this year.

I think a lot of the blame goes to the FED and Powell.  They always react too late and do not react enough.  They should have done a much better job than they did.

The guy at Cato, Selgin, I think said the spending (not just stimulus spending) accounted for half of the inflation, and allowed for it to be up to 3/4 of it.  So, for sure giving more money to folks to spend — or allowing them more credit — cannot be a good thing in the end.

But I think things are improving enough to see a cut.  I have largely planned for it and around it.

So we shall soon see.  

so is this now going to become offensive? 

 <---  let's say this is placed next to Pete Buttigieg in a post - is that offensive??  BTW all this "weird" talk about JD and republicans are "weird" lately, how is Pete and his husband with their fake plastic boob with a milk sac in it so they could "breastfeed" their adopted child not "WIERD AS IT GETS"??  In hospital gowns to boot like they gave birth out their butt

point is any poster can get offended by another poster in a generalizing way who doesn't agree and the biggest problem on this site has been the right gets boxed or banned at least 3x as fast as a left poster.  The reality is the site views the right in a negative way and hands down discipline in a generalizing way, before you even dispute it just go  and moderate the politics forum instead of being locked in threads your opinion doesn't agree with.  

this is reality when a right leaning poster speaks out here...

wallstreetcappers does this  to your words, or another example is he is the bully of this platform , how dare you have a different opinion but yet we all keep coming back until you can't

@cd329

 is your other account named "BC"?

it is amazing the amount of Trump hate you both spew in the posts, don't let the hate consume you.  There are no Biden haters or Harris haters, just critics and no derangement syndrome 

Generalizing refers to the act of applying a belief or characteristic of a specific person or situation to an entire group or category. It’s a cognitive process, imagine meeting a very rude person from a particular background and assuming that everyone from that background is also rude.

If you want to make the Liberals or Libs a generalized phrase then all the MAGA crap and everything else that goes with it like "red hats" and other digs should also apply to your same theory, but we all know it's never going to be implemented that way

@wallstreetcappers

 Thanks for the response. I'd respond but I just want to ask you one questions that I'm not sure if you've addressed. My question to you, which might help this convo, would be, where do you think covid originated from? 

Your rules, not mine pal.... don't get it twisted for posting receipts.  

You are so triggered these days its comical....  

@UNIMAN

 These idiots are gonna ruin this site. 

Way too late for that 

@kcblitzkrieg

 That is cute coming from you, it really is. At one time you were a balanced reasonable posting member but the last six months or so you have turned extremely partisan, combative and antagonistic. I think the peak moment was your event yesterday going into three separate threads to cut/paste a blatantly partisan bite you found somewhere and that goes way beyond the goal or intention of discord or communication. If you like to keep it light then try not being as antagonistic and partisan.

@BigGame90

 You guys went down that worm hole a while back, I dont think it has much to do with the topic of inflation and stimmy. I made my observation in good depth and you know it makes sense because you or others you know likely got the stimmy and if you or someone you knew were on a RIF or a company wide salary reduction, you know that for the worker that stimmy did not cover what was lost. The schemers who went the business route and got payroll stimmy and there was theft there but the average guy who either lost a job or hours the stimmy was not an increase at all it didnt even keep people floating during the time. Since most citizens live check to check with little savings, losing a check or two means not being able to cover living expenses.

@soup-can

 Oh poor trump  the man who puts more hate in the world then anybody since hitler is being hated on. Ill take up a i dont give a crap collection for him 

Nice try pal but been here since 2004 and only have 1 account.  Little too old to play childish games of having 2 accounts.  I want what i say to come from this account.  Do i spew hate for trump, i sure do because i hate this guy with a passion.  He is one of the worst humans to ever walk on this planet and for others not to open their own eyes and ears to see and hear everything he has said and done in his life, just shows how much the magas idolize this career criminal crook and con artist ( even thou trump has been a life long democrat before 2016, thats until he found all the guppies that would follow his every word like jesus christ and send him gobs of cash, lollll)

In closing unlike you, i dont idolize any politician in this entire world.  You like who you want and i will hate who i want.

I just hope the day comes when trump finally runs out of dumb luck and gets his karma for all the rotten things hes done in his miserable life. 

trump told his nephew fred trump iii that disabled people like his son should just die.  This is the type of guy all you magas look up to.  Just know karma comes for all bad people, even if you dont believe in that.  If there truly is a hell, there is gonna be a long maga wait list to get in lollllllllllllllllllll