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Presidential Election

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Posted: #426
Doesn't seem to sway lunatics tho... Lunacy voters seem to full speed ahead 
 
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Posted: #427
Will new revelations that POTUS and HRC founded ISIS have any effect on betting markets? This is a big deal. Some people are saying that ISIS is a very BAD group. If HRC is co-founder of ISIS I would suspect that DT+300 is stealing money.......shame on you if you wake up tomorrow and see it at even money.
 
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Posted: #428
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Trump doubles down saying Obama founded ISIS:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/11/trump-doubles-down-saying-obama-founded-isis/

The stench of desperation or lunacy.  How many feet can he stick into his mouth?  We're still counting.

From the way that Trump persists, it's very likely the odds of HRC winning election could jump over -400 not for long.  
 
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Posted: #429
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:


From the way that Trump persists, it's very likely the odds of HRC winning election could jump over -400 not for long.  


I'm seeing -400 now. betting odds finally catching up to polling odds. could change. still 89 days out. lots of crap can happen. if it's still going this direction after Labor Day, it's going to be tough for Trump to rebound. if not impossible. all in all, liking my HRC bets at -165 and -220. 
 
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Posted: #430
I'm not a juice bettor generally speaking but i have to say this wager still makes mathematical sense to me @ -400 (my book currently has -360)...you have to remember this is not sports betting there are no flukes...
 
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Posted: #431
What the heck is going on in Indiana? I know that it's an internal poll but still. She won't win Indiana so don't try to get cute with +250 but it's stunning that they are tied in Pence's reliably red state.


 
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Posted: #432
Quote Originally Posted by zamigo6:

I'm not a juice bettor generally speaking but i have to say this wager still makes mathematical sense to me @ -400 (my book currently has -360)...you have to remember this is not sports betting there are no flukes...


right. and the chances for a fluke go down every day. economic meltdown, terrorist intervention, something like that. or trump actually organizing a viable campaign.

ideological voters (and there's plenty of evidence on them here on Covers just like there were four years ago) have kept the trump numbers artificially low. at least up to this point.
 
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Posted: #433
Donald Trump's chance to be the next US President has hit the lowest point at 10% in the CNN/Pivit since i have followed it since earlier this year. GOP senate could lose the majority in this campaign, the odds of "Republicans no longer Senate majority" have hit highest point at -265. Pretty alarming for the GOP supporters, it could potential turn ugly in this race. 
 
 
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Posted: #434
*potential -->potentially
 
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Posted: #435
Quote Originally Posted by Snake30:


FDR won in 1944

Ford was technically part of Nixon's 2nd term. Repubs had only held the presidency for 2 terms when Carter defeated Ford.

True. But in modern day, FDR couldn't run again and incumbents carry favoritism status.
 
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Posted: #436
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:



right. and the chances for a fluke go down every day. economic meltdown, terrorist intervention, something like that. or trump actually organizing a viable campaign.

ideological voters (and there's plenty of evidence on them here on Covers just like there were four years ago) have kept the trump numbers artificially low. at least up to this point.



Agreed.
 Van would know better but I believe part of the number comes in the inticement knowing that the money will be tied up for three months (like any future).
 
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Posted: #437
Bovada moved dem candidate to -450 overnight
 
Legend
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Posted: #438
give me a line for Karl Marx !

https://www.infowars.com/video-millennials-back-karl-marx-as-third-party-presidential-candidate/
Let that Sink in . Afuera ! Elon and Vivek / DOGE ..Afuera !
 
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Posted: #439
Has Trump written off black voters?

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/15/has-trump-written-off-black-voters/#disqus_thread

Why not? They have written him off.
 
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Posted: #440
Clinton surges past 270 electoral votes:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/08/15/clinton-surges-past-270-electoral-votes/

Of course, everything is subject to change since there are more than 2 1/2 months to go until the election.
 
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Posted: #441
I wonder if there is a prop that says they Clinton will get more electoral votes than Obama did in 2008 when Obama completely obliterated the GOP...

I remember putting money down when palin appeared and energized the sad and sorry GOP at that time and the odds started to shift.... 

Trump could go down as the Biggest Loser Candidiate of all time...

Might be something to bet on for the right price

But I think the idea that Trump is the Worst Candidate Ever may not be far fetched... At least that is how things are shaping up... Plenty of time for him to make that true and prove that... He seems to be doing a good job so far
 
Prospect
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Posted: #442
5Dimes had an Over/Under posted for total electoral votes for each Party, but it is not currently up.

I believe it was Dems 369.5 +200(approximately). At the time, it seemed very unlikely they could reach that number, but not so far fetched now.
 
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Posted: #443
Quote Originally Posted by Barbarossa:

give me a line for Karl Marx !

https://www.infowars.com/video-millennials-back-karl-marx-as-third-party-presidential-candidate/


 
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Posted: #444
Quote Originally Posted by Snake30:

5Dimes had an Over/Under posted for total electoral votes for each Party, but it is not currently up.

I believe it was Dems 369.5 +200(approximately). At the time, it seemed very unlikely they could reach that number, but not so far fetched now.


Wow that seemed like an impossible bet a while back and now it seems possible...  Probably why it's not up anymore...


Good contribution to the disucssion...

It's interesting how certain posters are able to contribute while others seem to have nothing left other than desperate attempts grasping at anything possible other than participating in the intelligent dialog about the topic 

 
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Posted: #445
ELECTION Leading Statistician Nate Silver Says The 2016 Presidential Election Is Basically OVER....

https://realtimepolitics.com/2016/08/14/leading-statistician-nate-silver-says-the-2016-presidential-election-is-basically-over/
 
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Posted: #446
Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:

ELECTION Leading Statistician Nate Silver Says The 2016 Presidential Election Is Basically OVER....

https://realtimepolitics.com/2016/08/14/leading-statistician-nate-silver-says-the-2016-presidential-election-is-basically-over/


Actually, if you go to his site, he doesn't say that. this article is characterizing what his algorithm are saying. he's been quite cautious about saying that it's over. lots of time left.
 
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Posted: #447
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

I wonder if there is a prop that says they Clinton will get more electoral votes than Obama did in 2008 when Obama completely obliterated the GOP...

I remember putting money down when palin appeared and energized the sad and sorry GOP at that time and the odds started to shift.... 

Trump could go down as the Biggest Loser Candidiate of all time...

Might be something to bet on for the right price

But I think the idea that Trump is the Worst Candidate Ever may not be far fetched... At least that is how things are shaping up... Plenty of time for him to make that true and prove that... He seems to be doing a good job so far


hard to do worse than McGovern because there's a definite firewall in places like Wyoming and Alabama these days. Mondale sucked it up pretty bad, too.
 
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Posted: #448

From Washington Examiner:

Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988.

Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.

He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.

“Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory,” Abramowitz added.

 
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Posted: #449
Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

From Washington Examiner:

Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988.

Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.

He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.

“Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory,” Abramowitz added.



the time for change is but one component that the Crystal Ball uses. Despite this information, the UVA site concludes Clinton should win in a landslide with 347 electoral votes. this is what happens when you cherry pick news.
 
 
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Posted: #450
I don't believe the polls. They have to be off at least 10%. Huge, silent Trump vote. Truman/Dewey all over again. The best bet out there is Hillary will not be on the ticket.
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