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Presidential Election

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Posted: #826
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Overall, I am feeling pretty good about my wager.

I just want this to be over.

3 more weeks until payday hopefully.



i really need this to end. looks like he's in a hole and won't be able to climb out. too many elections in too many states that seem to be hardening up against him.
 
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Posted: #827
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:


Looks like you the made right call

I am not planning to hedge but considering the odds on trump right now, are you?



your doubt is showing.
 
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Posted: #828
Hi Van, big fan of your comments on world cup soccer. I have a thread up on liking Hillary to win +369.5 electoral votes at +190 odds. As per the best bog out there to the changing nature of the state polls 538 Hillary has a growing lead, at this time she is winning all the swing states and is closing in one Trump on a few red states. She will need to win Georgia and Missouri to clear 369.5. 

I don't see Trump closing the gap on Hillary, I think she wins by more than 10 percentage points, which is about what she need to win more than 369.5 electoral votes. Of course I could be wrong but to me it is a value bet.



 
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Posted: #829
Sportsbook has HRC by 150 votes or +344 at -140, that's much better odds.

If HRC keeps Obama's 3 swing states from 2012 that are close now, OH, IA, NV, she should go over that as she's on par to flip Romney's NC.

Numbers are tight for Romney's UT and AZ too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012
 
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Posted: #830
Quote Originally Posted by Hawky:


your doubt is showing.

Not really, I am bringing up the hege question because back in the day there was this thread about to hedge or not to hedge and vanzack talked about letting it ride as being the proper thing to do in the long run. 

I was hoping he would give both the mathematical and logical explanation as well as the reality based explanation of not putting any money on trump as he is going down the flames 
 
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Posted: #831
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/republican-strategist-clinton-on-the-path-for-400-electoral-vote-blowout/

I thought that this was interesting coming from a republican, so it is not just a democrat praising Hillary. 

Hard to doubt Hillary winning when you have non-dems telling the truth about how badly trump is doing 
 
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Posted: #832
Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:

Sportsbook has HRC by 150 votes or +344 at -140, that's much better odds.

If HRC keeps Obama's 3 swing states from 2012 that are close now, OH, IA, NV, she should go over that as she's on par to flip Romney's NC.

Numbers are tight for Romney's UT and AZ too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

This is a much better play than over 369.5............light juice combined with high probabilities.
 
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Posted: #833
[Quote: Originally Posted by Inyourlife16]

This is a much better play than over 369.5............light juice combined with high probabilities.

You could be right. It is a much safer bet. But i still like the over 369.5 at +200 more. Although who knows what the new odds will be come post 3rd debate. I have  strong feeling Trump will stay Trump like and continue to make outlandish statements that alienate voters that normally vote republican. 

I just listened to the 3rd debate and Trump did what Trump does, he said something that was completely stupid and damaging to his own cause that will long be remembered and negates everything else he said. A losing presidential candidate has to quickly concede, it is crucial to our democratic system. But Trump has to keep the rigged argument going, by saying the election is fixed. Three weeks to go and Trump is losing badly. He will lash out at the republican party next, watch. He will blame everybody but himself for his predicament and Hillary's lead will creep up until she starts winning red states she has no business winning.

 and get them greedy books

 
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Posted: #834
Here's the current projected electoral map...

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/19/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-5-october/index.html

If you give all leaning Dem and battleground states (FL, OH, NC, UT, AZ) plus leaning Rep Iowa to HRC, a state that Obama won in 2012, that comes out 365.  IMO, I just don't see her flipping lean Rep Georgia, that's usually very Red state.

GL.
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Posted: #835
Good solid info gmitran. 

Normally this late in a presidential election cycle people have made up their minds and the polls barely move. But not this election. The groping admission by Trump changed all that. I would not have dared suggest that any democratic candidate could win all the swing states and even a few solidly republican states in the south before that bombshell was dropped. 

In just three weeks Hillary has opened up a lead of nine points. I am betting that lead will continue to grow (certainly not a sure thing) so that come November 8th even more republicans disgustedly decide not to vote at all. They will not vote for Hillary, but will not vote for Trump either.


Trump will stay Trump, he will continue to say outrageous things that his core voters love but turn off other people. What will women who have voted republican their whole lives do? My money says either not vote or vote for Hilary.
 
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Posted: #836
Books who offer lines on the election, where do you think they get their info from?
Do they have access to information that you don't?

I'm pretty sure that their odds are factored through the gathering of information from the very same outlets that you and I have access to. This would be from polls, the vast majority of which are blatantly biased.

The point I'm making is that I don't understand why people look at odds for this election as if they are some sort of tell on the outcome 
bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #837
Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

Books who offer lines on the election, where do you think they get their info from?
Do they have access to information that you don't?

I'm pretty sure that their odds are factored through the gathering of information from the very same outlets that you and I have access to. This would be from polls, the vast majority of which are blatantly biased.

The point I'm making is that I don't understand why people look at odds for this election as if they are some sort of tell on the outcome 

Hugh is confusing objective money with presidential polling? I listened to Rush Limbaugh rant this morning on how the polling on this race is all wrong. He does the same thing every 4 years. I'll concede that the polls may not be weighted properly. I won't concede that sportsbook managers are giving us faulty numbers. That's just not how it works. You can hope for a Brexit, but hope is not a plan.
 
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Posted: #838
IYL, my comments were not based on who I think will win, nor who I want to win. I was simply pointing out the books get their info from the same sources that the rest of us do. Yet, some people feel that the books number is an indicator of who will win ... it is not, it is an indicator of what poll numbers are out there. I believe the only thing the books line indicates is that they are using the exact some info that is readily available to us, and then applying odds to it.

It is entirely possible that the info they are using to make their odds is flawed 
bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #839

It is entirely possible that the info they are using to make their odds is flawed 
[/Quote]

I am not advocating for either candidate with this post. I can understand your reasoning that public polling produces the betting lines that we see.

But generally speaking..........What is the most likely outcome when a gambling man looks at a betting line and states "The oddsmakers got it wrong"?????? After being on the wrong side of that question many times, I acknowledge that the odds set by a book manager should be viewed as accurate and not questioned.
 
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Posted: #840
Quote Originally Posted by Inyourlife16:


I am not advocating for either candidate with this post. I can understand your reasoning that public polling produces the betting lines that we see.

But generally speaking..........What is the most likely outcome when a gambling man looks at a betting line and states "The oddsmakers got it wrong"?????? After being on the wrong side of that question many times, I acknowledge that the odds set by a book manager should be viewed as accurate and not questioned.

I couldn't disagree more.

Oddsmakers set a line that is likely to garner 2 way action. We can get into a long, drawn-out discussion on "shaded" lines, but if you have $50million to put out on bets, then the objective is to lock in profit and mitigate risk.

Oddsmakers and sportsbook managers are balancing the sides and managing their liabilities. The goal is to generate a risk-free or low risk profit. End of story.

The lines are heavy HRC because no one believes that Trump is going to win. This can be attributed to the fact that the polls all favor HRC and the electoral map is stacked in the democrat's favor.  It really isn't rocket science. 

Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
 
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Posted: #841
Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

I couldn't disagree more.

Oddsmakers set a line that is likely to garner 2 way action. We can get into a long, drawn-out discussion on "shaded" lines, but if you have $50million to put out on bets, then the objective is to lock in profit and mitigate risk.

Oddsmakers and sportsbook managers are balancing the sides and managing their liabilities. The goal is to generate a risk-free or low risk profit. End of story.

The lines are heavy HRC because no one believes that Trump is going to win. This can be attributed to the fact that the polls all favor HRC and the electoral map is stacked in the democrat's favor.  It really isn't rocket science. 


BigVern.....you are correct in your analysis if we are discussing tomorrow night's ballgame.

Betting on an election with a futures moneyline wager is a different animal altogether.

  ON A SEPERATE NOTE: This moneyline is no longer a futures bet. We are in the two weeks between conference championship and super bowl. FOR THOSE BETTING THIS ELECTION..........TAKE A MOMENT TO CONTACT YOUR ONLINE AND FIND OUT WHEN THEY ARE PULLING THIS MONEYLINE FROM THE BOARD.

THOUGH I MAINTAIN THAT BETTING HRC AT CURRENT NUMBERS IS WRONG...........IF YOU CAN GET A CHUNK IN A DAY OR TWO BEFORE ELECTION FOR A QUICK ROI THEN IT MAY BE WORTH IT FOR SOME. BOL










 
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Posted: #842
Voting fraud already taking place in early Texas voting. Trump tickets flipped to Clinton. The machines are 'rigged'. Contested election on the horizon.

Whttps://www.infowars.com/report-votes-switched-from-trump-to-hillary-in-texas/hat a country.




 
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Posted: #843
Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

IYL, my comments were not based on who I think will win, nor who I want to win. I was simply pointing out the books get their info from the same sources that the rest of us do. Yet, some people feel that the books number is an indicator of who will win ... it is not, it is an indicator of what poll numbers are out there. I believe the only thing the books line indicates is that they are using the exact some info that is readily available to us, and then applying odds to it.

It is entirely possible that the info they are using to make their odds is flawed 

Slightly disagree...

The books number is not a number of what the polls are.  The books number is a number of balanced action of what people are betting.

Now - you can make the argument that people are using the polls to determine their wagers - but the betting odds are determined by action - not polls directly.  Afterall - how would one determine that a 5% national poll lead for HRC would equal -550 while a 4% national poll lead would equal something else?

Overall - it is still pretty surprising to me that you have everyone assuming HRC is a lock - while she is still only about -550 in the betting odds.  That is worrysome as a HRC bettor.  

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Posted: #844
I have to say....

Posters at Covers have come a long way with the understanding of odds and discussions about this stuff.  I feel like years ago the great discussions above by everyone on the odds side of this would be ridiculous - and now - I feel like everyone has a great grasp of how it all works.

Just an observation.....

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Posted: #845
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Slightly disagree...

The books number is not a number of what the polls are.  The books number is a number of balanced action of what people are betting.

Now - you can make the argument that people are using the polls to determine their wagers - but the betting odds are determined by action - not polls directly.  Afterall - how would one determine that a 5% national poll lead for HRC would equal -550 while a 4% national poll lead would equal something else?

Overall - it is still pretty surprising to me that you have everyone assuming HRC is a lock - while she is still only about -550 in the betting odds.  That is worrysome as a HRC bettor.  


Is it possible that Trump is being bet? I mean many people who think Hillary is almost definitely a winner still have no interest in betting her at -600, while I imagine anyone who thinks the election is still up in the air is ready and willing to put money on Trump at the long odds. I wouldn't be surprised it the action isn't as lopsided as one would think (in relation to the odds that is)...

For example at my book Hillary -620 and Trump +450, they can be taking 80% of their action on Hillary and profit on her winning...

$80 would pay out $12.90 on Hillary
$20 would pay out $90 on Trump

So they are still frankly taking a strong position on her here if that's the breakdown. If they are taking 85% of the money on her they are in a profit no matter what position.

$85 would pay out $13.71
$15 would pay out $67.50

 I wouldn't consider the line concerning for Hillary...do you think she is taking over 90% of the money?
 
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Posted: #846
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Slightly disagree...

The books number is not a number of what the polls are.  The books number is a number of balanced action of what people are betting.

Now - you can make the argument that people are using the polls to determine their wagers - but the betting odds are determined by action - not polls directly.  Afterall - how would one determine that a 5% national poll lead for HRC would equal -550 while a 4% national poll lead would equal something else?

Overall - it is still pretty surprising to me that you have everyone assuming HRC is a lock - while she is still only about -550 in the betting odds.  That is worrysome as a HRC bettor.  



i wouldn't say it's a lock but i think this thing is pretty much over.  polls are better as we get closer to the election can people have digested all of the campaign information.  also, 538 has done a good job at helping people distinguish the good polls from the bad.  polls can be very good or completely useless depending on the methodology. 

538 has hillary at 86% which is pretty close to a lock when you consider the individual states.  i normally say the odds tell the story better than anything but two weeks before the election, i'd say that that 86% number is the most accurate thing around.  as for the odds, with something like Jacksonville @ Tennessee, you aren't going to have a bunch of people making an irrational bet on one side that might move the line and cause a deficiency in the market.  with the election, particularly this one, you do have irrational people betting on trump that i think makes the odds market less reliable than the polls.

also, information like which party is registering new voters, requesting absentee ballots and voting early helps inform people as to what's going to happen.

finally, there's was a huge Meth sting down here which will hurt trump's chances even more. 


 
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Posted: #847
also, regarding the betting markets, trump is telling people he's winning as are people like rush and other sources that crazy people listen to.  if these people said 2 + 2 = 374, some of the trump supporters would believe it and if rush tells you that is true and you could get 2 + 2 = 374 at +550, some of those people would think that's a pretty good deal.
 
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Posted: #848
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I have to say....

Posters at Covers have come a long way with the understanding of odds and discussions about this stuff.  I feel like years ago the great discussions above by everyone on the odds side of this would be ridiculous - and now - I feel like everyone has a great grasp of how it all works.

Just an observation.....


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Posted: #849

Potential for contested election. There is no Scalia. You have to wonder. Court at 4-4 with a compromised Roberts as evidenced by The Affordable Care Act.

 
 
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Posted: #850
Quote Originally Posted by sundance:

Potential for contested election. There is no Scalia. You have to wonder. Court at 4-4 with a compromised Roberts as evidenced by The Affordable Care Act.


Thank you for the InfoWars update Sundance.
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