Presidential Election

i really need this to end. looks like he's in a hole and won't be able to climb out. too many elections in too many states that seem to be hardening up against him.

Hi Van, big fan of your comments on world cup soccer. I have a thread up on liking Hillary to win +369.5 electoral votes at +190 odds. As per the best bog out there to the changing nature of the state polls 538 Hillary has a growing lead, at this time she is winning all the swing states and is closing in one Trump on a few red states. She will need to win Georgia and Missouri to clear 369.5. 

Sportsbook has HRC by 150 votes or +344 at -140, that's much better odds.

If HRC keeps Obama's 3 swing states from 2012 that are close now, OH, IA, NV, she should go over that as she's on par to flip Romney's NC.

Numbers are tight for Romney's UT and AZ too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/republican-strategist-clinton-on-the-path-for-400-electoral-vote-blowout/

[Quote: Originally Posted by Inyourlife16]

Here's the current projected electoral map...

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/19/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-5-october/index.html

If you give all leaning Dem and battleground states (FL, OH, NC, UT, AZ) plus leaning Rep Iowa to HRC, a state that Obama won in 2012, that comes out 365.  IMO, I just don't see her flipping lean Rep Georgia, that's usually very Red state.

GL.
window.post_1476975968220_16 = function(win,msg){ win.postMessage(msg,"*"); }window.post_1476975977856_45 = function(win,msg){ win.postMessage(msg,"*"); }

Good solid info gmitran. 

Books who offer lines on the election, where do you think they get their info from?

IYL, my comments were not based on who I think will win, nor who I want to win. I was simply pointing out the books get their info from the same sources that the rest of us do. Yet, some people feel that the books number is an indicator of who will win ... it is not, it is an indicator of what poll numbers are out there. I believe the only thing the books line indicates is that they are using the exact some info that is readily available to us, and then applying odds to it.

I couldn't disagree more.

Oddsmakers set a line that is likely to garner 2 way action. We can get into a long, drawn-out discussion on "shaded" lines, but if you have $50million to put out on bets, then the objective is to lock in profit and mitigate risk.

Oddsmakers and sportsbook managers are balancing the sides and managing their liabilities. The goal is to generate a risk-free or low risk profit. End of story.

The lines are heavy HRC because no one believes that Trump is going to win. This can be attributed to the fact that the polls all favor HRC and the electoral map is stacked in the democrat's favor.  It really isn't rocket science. 

Voting fraud already taking place in early Texas voting. Trump tickets flipped to Clinton. The machines are 'rigged'. Contested election on the horizon.

I have to say....

i wouldn't say it's a lock but i think this thing is pretty much over.  polls are better as we get closer to the election can people have digested all of the campaign information.  also, 538 has done a good job at helping people distinguish the good polls from the bad.  polls can be very good or completely useless depending on the methodology. 

538 has hillary at 86% which is pretty close to a lock when you consider the individual states.  i normally say the odds tell the story better than anything but two weeks before the election, i'd say that that 86% number is the most accurate thing around.  as for the odds, with something like Jacksonville @ Tennessee, you aren't going to have a bunch of people making an irrational bet on one side that might move the line and cause a deficiency in the market.  with the election, particularly this one, you do have irrational people betting on trump that i think makes the odds market less reliable than the polls.

also, information like which party is registering new voters, requesting absentee ballots and voting early helps inform people as to what's going to happen.

finally, there's was a huge Meth sting down here which will hurt trump's chances even more. 

also, regarding the betting markets, trump is telling people he's winning as are people like rush and other sources that crazy people listen to.  if these people said 2 + 2 = 374, some of the trump supporters would believe it and if rush tells you that is true and you could get 2 + 2 = 374 at +550, some of those people would think that's a pretty good deal.

Potential for contested election. There is no Scalia. You have to wonder. Court at 4-4 with a compromised Roberts as evidenced by The Affordable Care Act.