MLB 2007

As explained in this thread here, I derive an intrinsic value for every baseball game using my valuation model. Here are the intrinsic values (not the expected market lines) for the opening day games (give or take a few games due to some injuries that may or may not prevent some players from playing). The first set of numbers represents the intrinsic values of both teams. The next set of numbers represents the equivalent market equilibrium price. The last set of numbers represents the margin of safety required for both teams, essentially meaning what the lowest possible price has to be to place a bet on that team. ]NYM@ STL +130/-130 +126/134 +142/-120 Comment: The opening line of this game just came out at pinnacle, and is currently at the exact equilibrium price that is adjusted for vig. No value on either team. Atl@ Phi +115/-115 +111/-119 +127/-105 Fla @ Was -107/+107 -111/+103 +104/+121 Lad@ Milw +163/-163 +159/-167 +181/-145 Comment: I am expecting the Brewers to opening up at a price well below their intrinsic value in this game and more than likely under my margin of safety, making them a play on opening day. A lot of hidden value in this game is derived based on the notion both starting pitchers are very situational pitchers. Lowe has several unfavorable factors in this match up, while it is quite the opposite for Sheets Chic@ Reds -135/+135 -139/+131 120/+170 Comment: Expect the Cubs to open up below their intrinsic value in this game. The Reds should be one of the more overvalued teams during the first month of the season. Pit@ Hou +226/-226 +220/-232 +255/-200 Comment: This simply is not a good fundamental match up for Duke. Expect the Astros to be slightly undervalued in this game. Tor/Det -105/+105 109/+101 +106/+118 Bos/KC -102/+102 -106/-102 +107/+114 Comment: There probably won’t be another game on Monday that will deviate more from its intrinsic value than this one. I am expecting the Royals to be a nice value play in this game. Oak/Sea +146/-146 +142-150 +162/-136 Comment: Expect the Mariners to trade below their intrinsic value.

Marlins @ Nationals Play: Nationals +121 Intrinsic Value: Value +107 Consider Betting Price: +121 Comment: Not the most value on Monday’s card, but the Nationals hit my price target. I am in the majority in thinking that the Nationals are the worst team in baseball this year, but rarely does the worst publicly perceived team making for the worst bet. Although I am expecting Willis to bounce back from somewhat of an off season last year and is primed for a solid start, his worth in this game might be overvalued. He struggled against the Nats anemic lineup last year, and might not see a lot of action in this game if last year’s opening day start is foretelling, as he only managed to pitch five innings even though he allowed just one hit. Once Willis leaves the game, the Nats have the pitching advantage in the later innings, as they have one of the more underrated bullpens in the league while the Marlins have one of the worst. Patterson has a ton of upside potential and should put up better numbers than last years injury riddled season. He has had a history of performing better at home, as has curtailed Caberera’s damage in the past, limiting him to only 2 extra base hits in 23 at bats, while dominating a couple other key hitters in their lineup in limited at bats. The Marlins have a slightly better chance of winning this game, but not as much as the current line indicates.

Indians @ White Sox Play: Indians +116 Intrinsic Value +100 Consider Betting Price: +111 After a short lived scare yesterday with a potential devastating injury to Sabathia, he is back on the mound for opening day against the White Sox once again. It’s hard to imagine Sabathia not putting up a dominating performance in this game. He ran through the White Sox last year, pitching against them six times and winning all four decisions while putting forth a low 2 ERA. He has dominated the likes of Konerko, Thome and a couple of other key hitters throughout his career. The White Sox really struggled against southpaws last year, and should regress on an aggregate level, as three hitters overachieved substantially last year. The Indians downfall last year was their bullpen (and clutch hitting, defense and managing). Although they did not improve their pen much in the off season, Sabathia is a workhorse that can avoid it well even this early in the year. I am not surprised in the least that Contreras struggled last year, and I am expecting more of the same this year, as his dominant year two years prior was as much of an anomaly as a sustainable structural change. He struggled this preseason and was roughed up last year by the Indians. The Indians lineup is deep and could wear down a pitcher that doesn’t like going into the strike zone. He is backed by an overrated bullpen and a struggling and unreliable closer. I will take the basis points, the better pitcher and slightly better lineup in this game.

Dodgers @ Brewers Play: Brewers -104 Intrinsic Value -163 Consider Betting Price: -145 Comment: There is not a National League team on opening day coming with more value than the Brewers. I am not surprised that they are trading well below their intrinsic value, but am a bit surprised that they aren’t even favorites in this game. Both starting pitchers in this game are situational pitchers heavily dependent on external variables. Aside from last year, Sheets has always been far more dominant at home, during the day and earlier in the season. All three variables are working in his favor. Last year, both the Dodgers veteran and young hitters alike hit the fastball well, but struggled against the off speed pitch, which should work in Sheet’s dominant curveballs favor. I am not expecting Sheets to go deep in this game, but he is backed by a deep bullpen that should not leave any inning terribly vulnerable in this game. Both lineups hit much better at home, favoring the Brewers in this game. Unlike Sheets, Lowe has three variables working out of his favor in this game. He has always been known to be far less impressive on the road, easier to pick up during the day, and has struggled earlier in the season. He will also have to deal with pitching to four left handed bats this game. Aside from earlier in the season last year, Lowe has notoriously struggled against left handed hitters. His solid career numbers against the Brewers are deceiving, as he has not had much success against their hitters, and struggled against Counsell when he was with Arizona.

Cubs @ Reds Play: Cubs -109 Intrinsic Value: -135 Consider Betting Price: -120 Comment: With all the talk surrounding the Cubs during the off season and their propensity to be a public darling, I am a bit surprised there are coming with value already this early into the season. However, I am also expecting the Reds to be one of the more overvalued teams early in the year, as they should have a hard time playing as well as they did most of last season. Zambrano is exactly the type of pitcher you want pitching for you on a road opening day game. He is a stopper and emotional pitcher who gets his team to rally around him. He should once again have no problem continuing to dominate the Reds like has had done in the past. The Reds lineup leaves a lot to be desired, as they might struggle putting a starter who can put up a batting average over 280 on the season. Zambrano has never had a problem pitching well on the road, and actually last year was more dominant away from home. He has also been one of the best day game pitchers in baseball over the last few years. Backed by one of the most underrated bullpens in baseball and the Cubs should limit the Reds hitting production throughout this game. Prior to last year, Harrang was one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. However, last years solid season has taken all the value away from him, as the public is now on to him. With a healthy Lee and Soriano, the Cubs have one of the best lineups in the league that can produce at the top and at the bottom of the order. Harang’s fly ball pitching tendencies were not rewarded kindly last year when pitching at home, as Great American Park is one of the worst for fly ball pitchers. His home ERA of 4.61 was horrible compared to his sub three on the road. During the day he struggled even worse, as the fly balls traveled even further. Don’t expect him to be dominant in this one, and once he leaves this game, things should only get worse, as he is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and a bullpen that lacks a closer that could hold onto any potential lead on a consistent basis.

Diamondbacks @ Rockies Play: Rockies +111 Intrinsic Value: -112 Consider Betting Price: -101 Comment: Wrong team favored in this game, but I am not surprised that linesmakers put the Dbacks favored with Webb on the mound. The Rockies are my sleeper team this year, as they have a top tier lineup in the National League, but are not getting credit for it. The heart of the lineup is as potent as any in the league, while last years problem at the bottom of the order should improve this year with some young players with a lot of upside. With the way the ball now travels in Coors, the advantage of having a dominant sinker like Webb’s diminishes. He should be on a smaller pitch count than normal in this game, and once he leaves, the Rockies lineup has the clear advantage over a sub par Dbacks bullpen. Cook continues to get disrespected by linesmakers. He too has a dominant sinkerball that could curtail the effects of a day game in Coors. He really pitched well at home last year, especially during the day games. Although I got burned more than once betting on him against the Dbacks last year, expect him to put forth better numbers against them this year. Cook’s sinkerball has the propensity to bet beat up by left handed bats, and the last couple of years, the Dbacks were loaded from the left side. With some key left handed bats no longer on the Dbacks, Cook should be more comfortable in this one. Once both starters leave the game, the Rockies have the advantage, as they have the homefield, better lineup and better bullpen working in their favor.

Red Sox @ Royals Play: Royals +161 Intrinsic Value: +102 Consider Betting Price: +114 Comment: I am not surprised in the least that the Royals are the most undervalued team on the opening day and the Red Sox are the most overvalued. All off season, the Red Sox have been over publicized and over hyped- and that usually is accompanied with an overvaluation once the season starts. There has been all this talk that the Red Sox lineup remains one of the most potent in the league, but that is far from the case. Aside from Manny and Ortiz, their lineup leaves a lot to be desired, and should actually depreciate from last years uneventful numbers. There has been a lot of hype surrounding Meche and his big contract. The reality is that he has some of the most dominant stuff in the league, and his mental weakness has hindered his career so far year to date. The Red Sox overrated lineup has struggled against Meche’s style of pitching in the past, and Meche dominated them late last season. There is no denying that the Royals bullpen is bad, but Royals bettors are being more than compensated for such with the price that is accompanying them. Schilling’s best days are behind him, but he is still coming with an inflated price tag. Late last year he showed that to be the case, as he put forth a 4.58 ERA after the break, including a start where he allowed eleven hits and seven runs against the Royals in Kansas City. The Royals lineup isn’t terribly potent, but is underrated. With Gordon adding extra pop, the Royals have a few young players that could surprise a lot of people this year. They played well last year at home. The Red Sox bullpen is vulnerable prior to the 9th inning, and Schilling’s pitch count should be curtailed early in the year.

A’s @ Mariners Play: Mariners -107 Intrinsic Value: -146 Consider Betting Price: -136 Comment: Nice value on the Mariners in this game. It seems like Hernandez’s sub par season last year has scared off some bettors, but truth be told, this kid is special and should put forth a much better year. He improved late last season, and put together a solid spring. He has always been far more effective at home where he seems more comfortable. Pitching against an anemic lineup should also give him the confidence to go into the strike zone, a problem in the past against the better lineups he faced. Two years ago he ran through the A’s. The A’s lineup has quickly become one of the worst in baseball this year, now without Thomas and a key situational hitter like Kotsay on the shelf. The Mariners have a decent bullpen that should not have too much trouble with this lineup and a solid and underrated closer. Seems like the A’s overvaluation is from the past and their success against the Mariners, as from a fundamental standpoint, this price is not warranted. Haren is a solid pitcher, but seemed really hittable late last season. He is also a right hander with the propensity to struggle against right handed hitters, which could be a problem against a Mariners lineup that will be showcasing seven of them. The Mariners have the starting pitching advantage, home field advantage and better lineup. The edge in the A’s bullpen is nowhere near enough to warrant this price tag. Nice value on the Mariners.

Pirates @ Astros Play: Astros -200 Intrinsic Value: -226 Consider Betting Price: -200 Comment: I normally don’t like laying such odds on baseball teams, especially this early in the season, but I do see some value on the Astros in this game. Don’t be surprised if Duke gets roughed up in this game. His sophomore slump last year was as much mental as it was fundamental, and he might run into a mental road block by pitching on opening day on the road. Last years struggles mainly occurred on the road, during the day and early in the season, all obstacles he has to overcome if he wants to pull off an upset. He will also have to pitch well against an improved Astros lineup, something he was unable to do last year. The Astros were always a dangerous home team, and finally getting a potent bat to protect Berkman on a consistent basis can spell trouble for opponents. Without Gonzalez in the ninth, the Pirates solid bullpen of last year has become more vulnerable. Oswalt has consistently been a top tier dominant pitcher the last few years. He should have no problem continuing this trend this year as he is up against an inferior lineup that he ran through last year, allowing just two runs in 20 innings of work. He has always been dominant at home and has had past success against a few key hitters in the Pirates lineup. The Pirates were the worst road hitting team in the league last year, and without their best pure hitter Sanchez, and Nady out of the lineup, its hard to expect anything different starting this year.

Rangers @ Angels Play: Angels -139 Intrinsic Value: Angels -153 Consider Betting: -139 Comment: Not much value, but value none the less. I am not surprised that the Rangers are entering this season overvalued, as the public perception of having a top tier lineup is far from reality this year. Their four through nine lineups in fact is one of the worst in the league. Lackey has now put forth two dominant seasons in a row, and although the has struggled throughout his career against the Rangers, expect him to improve against them this year, as the Rangers now lack the depth that could put strain on a power pitcher like Lackey. Things should only get worse for the Rangers once Lackey exits, as there are only three bullpens in the league better than the Angels. Washington may be a managerial upgrade, but has yet to show his in game managing skills, that usually are accompanied by a learning curve. Don’t expect the Angels lineup to be as anemic as it was last year. The addition of Mathews might be overblown, but the Angels have a few young bats potentially primed for a breakout season. Millwood is looking more and more like a one hit wonder, as he didn’t pitch anywhere near his contract would indicate last year. He has historically been known to struggle out of the gates as well. The loss of Gagne doesn’t necessarily depreciate their ninth inning, but should prove costly early on when their starters are one a smaller pitch count. The Rangers already lacked depth in their bullpen, and forcing Osuka to manage the ninth really makes any inning prior to that vulnerable. Angels should win this opener, and at -139, they are worth the risk in my opinion.

Thanks fellas. 4point5, Thanks for the time spent in sharing your insight. In response to some of your comments - Easy on the wishful thinking comment regarding the Brewers. I actually tend to agree with your sentiment on them. This team has been over hyped for three years now during the off season, yet they consistently fail to live up to their potential. I am not expecting much different out of them this year. Their lineup is average at best, their bullpen is deep but not terribly talented or consistent, and possess a weak defense. However, keep in mind, this is a game specific undervaluation on their team, and I actually think it is a byproduct of an overvaluation of Lowe and the Dodgers in this spot. I am not expecting the Brewers to be undervalued much this year, but wouldn’t be surprised if you see some value on Sheets and Capuano early on. - I am glad to someone else is taking the contrarian approach on the Red Sox and their overvalued lineup. This team has been known to burn public money in the past, and think this year will be no different. - It appears you have a good read on you’re A’s, but their might be some bias in your comments. Especially now with the absence of Thomas and injuries to Kotsay and Johnson this lineup leaves a lot to be desired. I am a big fan of “Billy Ball”, but their personnel is no longer terribly ideal for this approach, and their aggregate walk to strikeout ratio is not at the same level as in years past. I do agree with your bullpen comment on this team, and actually have them ranked as the third best in baseball on an aggregate weighted level. - I noticed that you are basing a lot of your opinions on spring training performances, and I would emphasize proceeding with caution with such an approach. No, hitting is not something you can turn off or on, but over analyzing preseason performances can lead one to miss-quantify, as the correlation with early season performances is not as foretelling as most believe. Two separate entities, yet an embedded survivorship bias of people remembering direct correlations (i.e people have the tendency to remember hitters that performed poorly in spring and carried it over to early April than a hitters that had bad springs and turned it on once the season started) is rampant. - A lot of people tend to agree with your valuation of the Reds, but I just don’t see it. Their lineup is lacking solid hitters that could get on for; their starting pitching should regress from last year at the top, while the bottom is really thin and unreliable. Their bullpen is one of the worst in the league. The only thing they improved on over the off season is their defense- but their late season slide was more of their true worth than their early season hot streak in my opinion. - In response to your Astros question, I think we are dealing with a mediocre team when Oswalt is not on the mound. Their lineup and bullpen are slightly above average, but their 2-5 pitchers are below average. I think they will make for a compelling fade when Jennings is on the mound, as I feel linesmakers might inflate their true worth. Good luck this season.

Thanks guys. Twoniner, I am not exactly sure what my record was last season posting at eog, as I came here once the season was well underway. However, if memory serves me right, the first month here, I was profitable, hit a horrible “slump” once inter league began, and finished the season strong, driven by a couple of “hot streaks”. All in all I could safely say I had a winning baseball season posting here, but last year was far from impressive for my standards and actually underperformed all but two seasons of baseball handicapping. I can’t stress enough how fundamentally flawed the notion of people putting so much credence in a seasoned handicappers “one year (or some times one month) time frame”. In reality, all it is is merely a “snapshot” of my baseball handicapping performance that probably only represents 1 to 2% of my lifetime baseball bets. It’s not the most foretelling basis to go by, yet people make conclusions on all handicappers using such small samples. Don’t get me wrong, I am well aware what is posted is all we have to go by, and anyone can inflate and boast about undocumented pasts, but I still can’t stress enough about all the premature conclusions about posters (good or bad) based on inconclusive samples that surround all gambling forums I visit. Good luck this season.

Hurricane, I could recommend a couple of good forums along with Covers, but I am sure the post will get deleted. I made a post a couple of weeks ago pertaining to what to look for this upcoming season amongst posters. The link is here, and I would recommend you read it. https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=665653 As far as Covers goes, this forum provides a large demographic base, which probably consists of a smaller ratio of sharps to squares when compared to the smaller niche forums, but with the large base it provides, you are certain to come across some bright minds in this forum. Sharp minds are often mimicked by the masses by disguised by few. It’s relatively easy to qualitatively decipher who to follow here based on expected long run returns. Wish you well this season.

Solid post and interesting topic. Although there are couple other variables in baseball that has a greater influence on the outcome of the game when compared to bullpen, many fundamental handicappers will argue this might be the most important variable in handicapping a game. Why? The other more important variable in an outcome of the game (i.e starting pitching and hitting) has the propensity to be efficiently priced into the market price (and more times than not over inflated). It’s hard to find value on good pitchers or lineups, as those variables are usually the only variables that are quantified by squares, leaving no other choice for linesmakers to fully adjust the line and sometimes artificially inflate the line to those to variables fundamental worth. However, bullpens usually fly under the radar for the majority of bettors, forcing a full valuation of their worth unnoticed the majority of the time by linesmakers. This leaves good bullpens undervalued at a much higher rate compared to good lineups and starting pitching. So does bullpens have a greater effect on the outcome of a game compared to starters and hitters? No. Should they be quantified at a higher weight than pitchers and lineups in a fundamental valuation process? No, due to the answer above. Does accurately quantifying their net worth on a particular game allow to spot value at a higher rate when compared to accurately quantifying the net worth of a starter or lineup? A lot of fundamental handicappers will argue Yes.

KC, Glad to see you back for bases. If you could put forth a season anywhere near last, you will be fine. I was quietly watching and appreciating your posts in the CBB forum throughout the year. I can genuinely say that in my opinion, you remain the most underrated posting handicapping in any gambling forum I have visited. Keep up the good work.

Good luck OSU, Jibba, Yes I plan to be posting everyday this season. In response to your question, my style of handicapping (fundamental/value handicapper), my job is to spot undervalued teams due to market inefficiencies. Since it’s earlier in the season when less information is available, the market has a higher propensity to put out inefficient lines deemed by my valuation process (my valuation process is also prone to being less efficient as well due it being shifted to more qualitative nature based on past quantitative numbers as opposed to current quantitative variables). This would lead me to potentially have a higher number of bets early in the season, but could safely say 9 games is still out of the norm for me even during the first week. Good luck.

Good luck OSU, Jibba, Yes I plan to be posting everyday this season. In response to your question, my style of handicapping (fundamental/value handicapper), my job is to spot undervalued teams due to market inefficiencies. Since it’s earlier in the season when less information is available, the market has a higher propensity to put out inefficient lines deemed by my valuation process (my valuation process is also prone to being less efficient as well due it being shifted to more qualitative nature based on past quantitative numbers as opposed to current quantitative variables). Case in point is the notion that a lot of the current lines have worked have flowed to my teams that I deemed undervalued when I posted these plays a few days ago. This would lead me to potentially have a higher number of bets early in the season, but could safely say 9 games is still out of the norm for me even during the first week. Good luck.

Padres @ Giants Play: Padres +109 Intrinsic Value: -110 Consider Betting Price: +102 Comment: Wrong team favored here and I am not surprised. It seems like linesmakers are putting too much stock into Peavy’s sub par season last year, as I am viewing it as more of a fluke season stemmed from the WBC and nagging injuries that prevented him from getting into any kind of rhythm. He is far too talented to not bounce back and put forth a dominating year, and if Spring was any indication, it looks like my prediction is right on par. Tuesday is a good spot for Peavy to open the season strong, as he faces a team that he has had past success against. The Giants lineup did not get any better in the off season, only older. Adding Aurillia to protect Bonds is a waste, and his bat using up the first base spot is as well. He, like Feliz and Durham, are Giants infielders that have really struggled against Peavy in the past. If Bonds wants to start the regular season where he left off during Spring, he will have to do it against a pitcher that he has a lifetime average of .250. Although the value of aces is diminished by the smaller early season pitch count, that is not the case for the Padres, as Peavy is backed by the deepest and best bullpen in the National League, which should make it hard for the Giants to score throughout this game. Zito and his overpaid salary make their debut. Although he is one of the more mentally strong pitchers in the league, the added pressure he is under on opening day (new team and big salary) may potentially be a hindrance. Zito’s “stuff” and Whip is far from your typical ace, and his reliance on taking advantage of a lack of patience of opposing batters may be a problem against this Padres lineup. Zito has actually struggled in his career against the left handed hitters he has faced, which could be a problem when facing a lineup who has four hitters from the left side, especially in a somewhat hitter friendly park for left handed pull hitters. Zito is a workhorse, but his pitch count will be monitored closely. This does not bode well for the Giants, as they are protecting him with one of the worst bullpens in baseball, giving the Padres a decisive advantage in the later innings. The Padres don’t have a potent lineup, but are one of the few teams who hit better on the road. In my opinion, the Padres have a slightly better chance of winning this game, so getting basis points in compensation for betting them is generous.

Dodgers @ Brewers Play: Brewers -127 Intrinsic Value: -166 Consider Betting Price: -154 Comment: This is the second day in a row in which the Brewers are extremely undervalued. Again, I don’t expect the Brewers market price to be set below their intrinsic value on a consistent basis, as this is a favorable situational spot that is not fully reflected in the market price. If one plans to bet on Capuano, they should do it early in the season, as last year, he once again showed to be a different pitcher after the break as his arm wore down. However, it has been three straight years now the Capuano has quietly become one of the more dominant first half pitchers in the league. He is also a Jeckel and Hyde pitcher when it comes to pitching at home and away, as his career home ERA is nearly a run lower, 3.82. He had no problem with the Dodgers last year, and could be a pitcher that may be hard to adjust to after Sheets, who has a completely different look for hitters. Thanks to Sheets performance, he is also backed by a bullpen that is better rested compared to their counter parts. Not sure why books are giving such respect to Wolf, he hasn’t shown any resemblance of the pitcher he once was prior to his injuries. Last year was a completed disaster, and until he proves to return to somewhere near the level he once was pitching, I remain skeptical. Wolf’s curve, his most dominant pitch in the past, is not nearly as effective, which bodes well for an overaggressive lineup like the Brewers. The Brewers have the decisive edge in southpaws in this game, and coupled with the fact that both teams are far better at home, the Brewers appear to have a lot of value in this game.

Pirates @ Astros Play: Pirates +161 Intrinsic Value: +126 Consider Betting Price: +141 Comment: On Monday, I took a position on the Astros as I deemed them slightly undervalued. On Tuesday, that is just no the case, as there is not another favorite on the card coming with more of an inflated price tag. Jennings is the second pitcher on this card coming off an overpaid signing and is becoming accompanied with an overpriced price tag. Aide from last years big season, Jennings has yet to show anything, as prior to last year, he put forth three straight seasons with a five plus ERA. Many are expecting better numbers this year now that he has escaped Coors, yet he actually put forth better numbers at home last year. Jennings high whip can be a detriment to any of his starts, and his propensity to give up walks is the last thing you want against a lineup that has a hard time getting runners on base via the hit. Jennings has been a horrific indoor pitcher, including horrible performances in his new home park, as he has allowed 22 runs in just 19 innings pitched here. Lidge proved again on opening day that his problems are far from over. Although there is not much to like about the Pirates lineup, especially without Sanchez, they have a potentially intriguing spot to do damage on an overpriced pitcher. Not many people know about Snell, but this kid has a ton of upside potential. When on, he has the stuff to dominate and overpower any lineup, making him a live dog. Snell was one of the few pitchers last year that actually put forth far better numbers away from the home crowd. His sub four road ERA and low four night ERA is far better than his aggregate numbers. Being backed by a decent bullpen and the Pirates have a chance to pull off a potential upset. Although I feel they have a greater chance of losing this game, they have a much better chance of winning compared to what the current odds reflect.

Diamondbacks @ Rockies Play: Rockies -129 Intrinsic Value: -198 Consider Betting Price: -183 Comment: One might think that this intrinsic value is way too high, but my valuation shows that the Rockies warrant being in the range of where teams that have dominant aces on the mound usually trade for. Although Hernandez’s problems in recent years has been more of a product of a mental deficiency rather than a fundamental problem, which he appears to have fixed since joining the Diamondbacks, it appears that he will have both psychological and fundamental variables to overcome in this game. Hernandez has never pitched well in Coors, and it is no coincidence, as his style of pitching is counterproductive in the thin air. His finesse style of pitching makes his pitches vulnerable to being left up in the strike zone, which has led him to generate horrific lifetime numbers in this park. He comes into today’s game with a lifetime 8 ERA in this park after over 60 innings of work here. Things shouldn’t get any easier for him in this game, as he is up against the most talented Rockies lineup in years. I said prior to season’s start that the Rockies have a top five lineup in the National League, and yesterday they proved it by roughing up one of the best pitchers in baseball. Tuesday they have a good shot to put forth back to back impressive games, and should face favorable pitching throughout this game, as Hernandez is backed by a sub par bullpen. Francis is a young southpaw with a lot of upside. Last year we got a glimpse of what is expected in years to come as he put up solid numbers, but should actually improve from those numbers this year. He has a nice sinkerball in his arsenal of pitchers, a huge plus in a spacious outfield. He was able to keep the ball down last year at Coors, only allowing nine homer runs in ninety innings of work. He also showed to have the upper hand against the Diamondbacks lineup, as they managed just a .190 average against him in four starts. This is the second straight game in which the Rockies are not getting the respect they deserve, and I will continue to play them until they do.

Orioles @ Twins Play: Twins -129 Intrinsic Value: -141 Consider Betting Price: -131 Comment: This is one of the more intriguing match ups of the day, as it showcases two young prospects on the mound, both with completely different styles. Bonser is a control pitcher who was actually the touted prospect in the Liriano deal from the Giants. Although he started last year in unimpressive fashion, he showed his true potential by finishing of the season putting together 10 quality starts. Bonser put forth his best work in the dome, and did a solid job limiting his walk total and forced the opposition to beat him. Being backed by the best bullpen in baseball should force the Orioles to score their runs early. The Orioles lineup is much more potent at home, didn’t do much against Bonser in their only game against him last year, and might have a hard time adjusting to him after facing Santana last night. Caberera might have the most electric stuff in baseball, but his problem has always been locating his pitches. Caberera is a pitcher that really has to find his rhythm, and if his first start last year was any indication, he will have a hard time finding it on Tuesday, as he opened up last season pitching one inning and allowing seven runs. The Twins lineup has patient hitters that will force you to throw strikes, which is the exact approach you want against Cabrera. In his two starts against the Twins last year, he walked nine in just 12 innings. He is also a pitcher that is heavily dependent on the home plate umpire. When up against a small strike zone, Carbrera is in trouble, and that is exactly what he will be up against tomorrow with Bucknor, who doesn’t give anything to a pitcher that can’t locate consistently. The Orioles bullpen improved over the off season, but still is nowhere near the level of the Twins, giving the Twins the pitching edge throughout this game.

Rangers @ Angels Play: Angels -145 Intrinsic Value: -176 Consider Betting Price: -162 Comment: This is the second day in a row that the Angels are coming with some nice value even when they are a decent sized favorite. It is appears there exists psychological anchoring when it comes to the Rangers lineup and the reputation they have had as being one of the most potent in the league over the last few years. With a 4-9 lineup that is one of the most anemic in the league, that is simply not the case this year. Escobar has put up ace like numbers the last three years but doesn’t get the credit he deserves by linesmakers. When he is healthy, he could dominate, and aside from a minor back sprain a couple of weeks ago, Escobar is coming into this game fresh. Although he put forth unimpressive numbers against the Rangers last year, those numbers are very misleading and value creating numbers, as he has actually had the upper hand against every big bat in the lineup that he will have to face, including the likes of Texeria and Blaylock, who come into this game with a combined 8 for 51 history against their counterpart. Being backed by and elite bullpen, and this will be the second straight game in which the Rangers will have to face some tough pitching from start to finish. Padilla has the stuff to be one of most dominant pitchers in baseball, but has the mental makeup of someone that doesn’t belong in the big leagues. Put those two variables together, and you get an inconsistent pitcher that has never lived up to his potential. The Angels gave Padilla fits last year, and had no problem hitting him, which is a concern for a pitcher that has a higher rate of allowed baserunners via the walk compared to the league average. There aren’t many lineups in the league more dependent on one hitter compared to the Angels relying on Guerrero, so when he has a favorable match up, the Angels chances increase. He dominated Padilla last year. The Angels small ball can take advantage of the high rate of walks as well. Padilla’s lack of control causes him to accumulate a high pitch count early, forcing him to leave games prematurely, which is also a concern for an injured bullpen that lacks depth.

Since sports gambling forums made a satire with regards to handicapping and recording keeping (with people keep throwing out 100 and 1000 unit plays), I chose not to track my performance on forums, as I find record keeping on forums useless and misleading. Until there exists a more stringent unitary benchmark and the record keeping shenanigans are curtailed (will never happen as it seems that sports gambling posters need a lot more attention than your typical handicapper) I will not partake in such. You are more than welcomed to track my record on your own, and in honor of these forums, you could add a few zeros on the units of all my bets. In regards to the second question, I use a hybrid % of bankroll money management strategy, implying that on any given day, the amount bet to win is the same for each team (but the nominal amount is subject to change over the course of the season). Therefore, the nominal amount varies based on the context of the bankroll and not a subjective variable like perception of how much value. I employ a reasonable margin of safety on all my bets, so I feel I am getting enough value on each one of my bets, and don’t think a fluctuation on my bet size is warranted by a Kelly criterion strategy. Anyone with a strong mathematical background will know that when using a % of bankroll method, variance is your worst nightmare, and a Kelly criterion approach adds just that. Employing such a strategy may add to your expected return, but actually lowers your expected risk adjusted return, and any investment should be measured by the latter. Good luck.

Adding two more plays, as current line movement has allowed these teams to hit my price target. Mets @ Cardinals Play: Mets +106 Intrinsic Value: -107 Consider Betting: +105 Comment: The Mets make for a compelling road underdog, as their NL best lineup is actually much more potent on the road, where their power can be better utilized in more hitter friendly confines. This holds especially true against a starting pitcher that has not put forth a solid year in four years. He has been extremely hittable since his injuries, a problem that will be magnified against a lineup this deep and potent. His control problems have always been a concern, but has been a bigger problem in recent years, which will force him to pitch from the stretch against the heart of the Mets lineup. The Mets are stacked from the left side of the plate and could do damage on any right handed pitcher, especially one who has a .280 career OBA against hitters from the left side. Wells has never been known as an innings eater and this early in the season, this problem will hold especially true. With Wainwright and Looper in the rotation, the Cardinals bullpen lacks depth and is a concern when backing a 90 pitch pitcher. The Mets should put up runs in this game. Hernandez can always be a liability on the mound, but I tend to like him most early in the season. The reason is that he has the highest speed disparity amongst his pitches, which is a big asset early in the season when hitters timing are off. He pitched well with the Mets last year, and has always been equally effective pitching on the road. He is hard on right handed hitters and vulnerable against left handed bats. Facing a lineup that isn’t a threat from the left side should work in his favor. Being backed by a top tier and deep bullpen will give the Mets more leverage in pulling the plug on him early.