MLB 2007

2 Undervalued Underdogs Seattle Mariners +190 Haren is starting to become a “public favorite” which usually comes with having the best ERA in baseball. However, he is clearly approaching dangerous grounds with current price tags that simply can not be warranted when backed by an inferior lineup like the A’s. Believe it or not, Weaver has been pitching much better than Haren in his last three outings. Weaver reminds me a lot like the Weaver of last October, a pitcher pitching with a chip on his shoulder and a pitcher on a mission. Sure, he could implode in any start in the near future, but simply is a pitcher too dangerous to lay such odds against. Haren’s dominant streak has shown signs of ending of late, as numbers helped out by a high negative Delta H, DERA>NERA, and unsustainable BABIP can only last so long. The Mariners have a better bullpen and lineup, just more evidence this line is significantly inflated. Twins Game 2 (+102) No denying that it is hard to value a game in which both starters are making their season debut. That said, Gavin Floyd just can not warrant being favored at the big league level, especially when backed by such an underachieving White Sox club that is playing as far from sound fundamental baseball that I have seen in a long time. There is no denying that Floyd can potentially have overpowering stuff that can make him effective at the big league level, and has shown some of that potential in the minors this season. That said, he still does not know how to pitch, is not ready to go up against big league hitters that are that have the ideal patience to take advantage of his lack of consistency and wait for that mistake that he has made so often with the Phillies and in the minor league level in seasons past. Backed by an underachieving bullpen that also posses that “dominant stuff’ and do not know how to use it, should allow a patient Twins lineup to employ that “piranha” mentality Guillen has labeled them under. Garza is no “sure thing” and is probably over hyped by his unwarranted first round pick status. That said, he too has that “nasty stuff” Floyd has, is a bit more consistent with it, and has the sink on his fastball that Floyd lacks, making him a less likely victim of this park. He has looked sharp in his recent minor league stint, and is more prone to being helped out by facing a lineup willing to go out of the zone. The White Sox were unable to take advantage of the nerves that can accompany a young pitchers first start just two days ago. Backed by the better bullpen, the White Sox lineup has more pressure in having to get to their young opponent. What to make of Gunthrie? Baltimore Orioles (-108) I have been saying for quite a while that there is no way Gunthrie can sustain his current numbers. Probably no pitcher in the league can sustain such. His .89 WHIP and ten quality starts in eleven (only non-quality start was his last, where he pitched 8 strong innings and allowed four runs) is as impressive as it gets. That said, regression is only a matter of time with him, as his BABIP is simply well below normal, while his low strikeout rate shows a lack of overpowering stuff. His low HR per fly ball rate that was well below normal has shown regression in his last three outs, and it is only a matter of time until the rest follow suit. That said, Gunthrie is still pitching way too well to not warrant a higher line. He has done a good job keeping the ball down, which should offset the ability of the ball to fly out. His counterpart is one of the worst home pitchers in the league, and earned a starting rotation bid simply because of his ability to force the ground ball and offset his home parks propensity to allow the long ball. That said, this propensity becomes moot with his mental weakness which may be the cause (as it is not his pitching style) of his career 23 home runs allowed in 140 innings at home, compared to his five career road home runs 120 innings of work. Showing no signs of improving his career six home ERA, and I will take my chance with Gunthrie as his vulnerability to regression.

SD Padres -134 It seems like Braves backers are back on board their team now that their bats have finally come back to life, being able to knock out the opposing starting pitcher prior to the sixth inning in nine of their last ten games, in which they averaged nearly 8 runs a game. However, don’t put too much stock into this recent hot streak, as their last ten opposing pitchers leaves a lot to be desired from a talent standpoint (Wells, Germano, an injured Penny, Hendrickson, a slumping Wolf and Willis, Kim, Bowie, and an injured Johnson). In fact, their only real test during that time span was against Lowe, who convincingly dominated them. Tonight will be another test as they face Maddux working with a lot of motivation in this spot. Maddux, who always is extra motivated during prime time starts, will also have the motivation of pitching against his former team, and will be in bounce back mode after putting forth his worst home start of the season last week. Maddux, who hasn’t faced his former team in nearly two years, has the exact style you want against this free swinging lineup willing to go out of the strike zone. Expect him to take advantage of the youth in the backend, while the heating up Jones’s are just one for seven lifetime against him, and don’t match up well either. The Braves also lack the speed on the base paths to take advantage of Maddux’s inability to hold runners on. Maddux also have the umpire factor edge over his counterpart, as Buckner’s tight zone can be unforgiving for a pitcher that lacks command like Davies, something far from the case with Maddux. His propensity to open it up for veteran pitchers is also a potential hidden asset for this game. Backed by the best bullpen in baseball should demand only six out of Maddux, and force the Braves to score early. The Braves are also heavily dependent on the long ball, as their lack of speed and situational hitting doesn’t make their lineup built to manufacture runs. This propensity should be curtailed by Maddux allowing just seven all year and Petco Park being one of the hardest parks to go yard in. Davies looked horrible (and still injured) in his last start after missing one with an abdominal strain. Prior to his injury, he had shown no signs of getting better with each start, as he is continued to underachieve the hype that at one time surrounded him. Plagued mostly by lack of control and high walk total, he may be set up for failure in this start, as he is up against one of the more patient lineups not willing to help a pitcher out (nor does Bucknor). Davies has looked awful out of the stretch this season, as he has yet to figure out an out pitch to compensate for his high walk total. The Padres are not one of the better lineups in getting hits, but are one of the better lineups in making most of what is given to them. The return of Giles adds even more patience and situational hitting to the lineup, while the addition of Bradley adds a spark and some pop. Healthy or not healthy, Davies is not a candidate to go deep into this game, and is backed by a mediocre front end who had used three pitchers in last nights game. The Padres have played well at home this season, and are entering the break with momentum, confidence and the best record in the NL.

I am not terribly surprised to see an efficient market place on Thursday, which consists of a small card that had a three day pricing timetable. Nonetheless, here is my analysis of 3 interesting games on Thursday’s card, which may not consist of any plays given not material line movement change. Yankees @ Devil Rays The Devil Rays have provided value gems in past years when playing the Yankees. Being a team highly dependent on the motivational aspect of the game, they Devil Rays have shown a tendency to raise their play to the level of their competition. The Break could not have come at a better time for this team either, as time, along with a home series against the Yankees may have slowdown the downward momentum this team has been playing with for a few series now. Their bullpen had gotten so bad, that not only were they the easiest pen to get hits off of, but their inability to throw strikes didn’t even force a team to make contact with the ball to get runs home. That said, one should take not of Shields recent downward trend, and proceed with caution, as it may be more than a slump- rather a case of dead arm caused by the heavy workload demanded out of him due to the bullpens inefficiency. The Devil Rays plan of going to a six man rotation is commensurate to such notion. Although some extra time off may have helped Shields, playing the Yankees shouldn’t. Not only did the Yankees prove capable of getting to Shields last year, but his fundamental style of pitching, which is heavily dependent on getting hitters to chase his off speed pitches (predominantly his changeup) is counterproductive against such a patient lineup. It is no surprise that the Yankees lineup consists of just one start who’s off speed chase rate is above the league median. Shields efficiently numbers (getting ahead early, 1-2-3 innings, and pitches per batter have been getting progressively worse). Although his talent level can allow him to overcome such trends without a decrease in runs, it won’t allow him to eat up innings in the same manner as early in the season, a huge disadvantage when backed by the worst pen in the game. Without Reyes, the Devil Rays pen might be the worst baseball has seen in a long time. Shields is not the only starter in this game currently in a downward cycle, as Pettitte has been as ineffective as it gets of late as well. Allowing 19 hits in the last seven innings is strong evidence that this may be more than a slump as well. His command has been lacking early in counts, which costs him more than most, as he lacks the dominant pitch to challenge hitters with. Although the Devil Rays are a lineup that will go out of the zone more than most, Pettite’s command has gotten so bad, that the % chased has taken a drastic decrease that may not be helped by an impatient lineup. Both pitchers inherent risks stemmed from their recent struggles, coupled with the lack of consistency both lineups provide increases the margin of safety requirement of both teams. Nonetheless, the current line appears to be set right in my opinion. White Sox @ Orioles Probably no other pitcher in baseball wants to take the mound more than Garland, as he wants to make up for his embarrassment performance in the infamous doubleheader against the Twins last week. This performance has raised question to the knot in his throwing arm and the future effects on his effectiveness. Claiming it has been an ongoing issue that was existent during Garlands solid June, leads me to believe he could bounce back from such an outing. Being a pitcher more dependent on command over velocity should allow him to manage the deficiency more effectively. Garland’s dominance over left handed hitters this year, being one of the hardest pitchers to steal against, and being able to keep the ball down and counter small parks will diminish the greatest assets the Orioles lineup has in a given home game. Being able to go deep into games with high efficiency ratings should offset the White Sox bullpen risks, as should the extra time off to heal their tired arms caused by the Twins series. I still don’t know what to make out of Guthrie, as some of his secondary numbers have been at levels not sustainable by elite pitchers. He has slowly regressed since than, and is still a candidate for more regression. With that said, the market seems to have the same expectations, as he has yet to carry an inflated price tag in any of his starts. The White Sox bats have started to heat up a bit, and should continue to do so, just not at the levels they have been accustomed too. Small value on the White Sox, as their struggles are well known, while Guthrie’s lack of sustainability may not be as much. White Sox should be considered at anything better than a +120 offering in my opinion. Tigers @ Mariners It seems like the market place is not buying into Miller’s recent solid outings, which is rare occurrence when a young pitcher that is backed by a top tier lineup is pitching sharp. But they probably shouldn’t be, as there is enough evidence for a set back. Miller’s inability to work an effective off speed pitch will sooner or later catch up to him, which may be sooner, as he is facing a solid fastball hitting lineup. His high pitch counter per batter will catch up to him thanks to the Tigers bullpen concerns. His high walk total and Whip are not commensurate to his current ERA level. With no signs of improved command, it appears that the ERA is the one to budge. Hernandez has been more hit or miss compared to most elite pitchers, but his miss starts have been correlated to improper mechanics and injuries rather than being overmatched by dangerous lineups like the one he will be up against. Known to get better as the season progresses, the worst may be over for this talent. His stuff can overpower any lineup, Tigers included. His effectiveness with his off speed pitches can counter the Tigers aggressiveness at the plate and allow him to not rely on the fastball in which the Tigers are the most potent lineup in the league in hitting. The Mariners bullpen allows a pitching advantage throughout this game. That said, the market seems agree that the pitching edge and home field advantage is worth more than the edge the Tigers have at the plate. No value on either team in what should be an interesting match up.

Good question. I don’t think there exists a single ratio or statistic that allows one to accept or reject a hypothesis regarding a recent trend on a pitcher. Ratios should rather be looked at a conglomerate level where one could decipher a pitcher (for some reason) is simply less effective on the mound of late. The ratio you mentioned is one of the more foretelling when looked with others. On a stand alone basis, one may be duped by a declining strikeout rate by a small sample that is as much predicated on the recent lineups faced as it is on the pitcher effectiveness. Looking at K/BB, well hit ratio’s, F/G ratios, pitches per batter, on base average against, are a few vital ratios that one could see whether they deviate from norm of a specific pitcher. All should be weighted different depending on the type of pitcher as well. For example, if you see a sinkerball pitchers fly ball rate increase, it is more foretelling than a power pitcher, as it is counterintuitive to the strategy he employs on the mound. A declining strikeout rate is more concerning with power pitchers who challenge hitters and try to avoid contact. You could also pick up a thing or two that doesn’t show up in your everyday box score by watching a game. One overlooked gauge is whether a pitchers velocity is down or whether he is relying more on a type of pitch than usual.

Thanks for the kind words. Getting more granular than that is probably not necessarily and may lead to paralysis by analysis. Having an understanding of the style of pitching and goals they try to produce is all you need to know regarding whether there exists contradicting ratios in recent starts. No database creation is needed to form conclusions of recent trends. There isn’t one site in which I could obtain all my info, as I am a member to a few sites. Slim, No opinion on the Over. I am not quantifying values on totals this season, and on the surface see no decisive edge that that could correlate to 9 being a mis-pricing.

Here are a couple of the teams I deem undervalued in today’s games. Milwaukee Brewers It isn’t often in which you see a popular that has been dominant at home this undervalued. However, unsustainable trends working against the Brewers in this game have forced the public to temporarily shy away from them. It appears that the public wants nothing to do with Capuano as the Brewers have lost their last eight games in which he starts. Although he has not pitched well during that stretch, the fact that the Brewers scored two runs or less in seven of those eight games has a lot to do with a that “fadeable” trend. However, short term pitcher run support is highly overrated and an actual value creator- especially when dealing with lineups as potent at the Brewers. Capuano’s current downward cycle may be helped out by some extra time off, while may be inflated by having to pitch three straight road games, where he has never been nearly as productive throughout his career. Despite being in the midst of an off season, Capuano has managed to pitch well at home. His currently inflated ERA has a lot to do with capitulating innings, another variable that may lack sustainability, as he has been one of the better southpaws in baseball out of the stretch in recent years. Backed by deep and well rested bullpen should allow the Brewers to prevent the big inning with the earliest of warning signs. His past success against hitters spread around the lineup should also curtail the chances of that big inning. This is also a series in which home field is magnified, as both lineups along with Capuano, or much more potent in their own park. Francis has also shown some volatility on the mound in recent outings, which is not terribly surprising, as he has been known to slow down during this part of the season. The Brewers have given him problems in past years when he was a less effective pitcher, but still may have sustainability as they are one of the more potent lineups in the league against southpaws. Along with past second half regression, some of Francis’s peripherals also lean towards future regression, including his negative Delta-R. Some underlying variables that have lead to early season success for Francis should be tested in today’s game, including his low rate of runners scored, as the Brewers possess one of the better slugging teams with runners on. Unlike Capuano, the Rockies bullpen is suspect, and their backend now equally as vulnerable as their front end with the injury to Fuentes. Detroit Tigers Despite putting forth three solid outings in a row against lineups he fundamentally matched up well against, Washburn sub par June may come back to surface in this spot. When pitching for the Angels, his horrible home performances were blamed on not being able to reach a comfort zone on the mound and being a fly ball pitcher whose home park was smaller relative to most of the other parks he pitched in. However, his high disparity of home and away productivity this year may point more to a mental weakness. Underlying fundamental deficiencies this season may be magnified by the Tigers lineup. His low chase rate of off speed pitches does not bode well when facing an aggressive lineup built to hit fastballs, as forcing the Tigers to chase the off speed pitch (like last night) is huge asset for the opposing pitcher. His high walk total and fly ball propensities are also variables not suitable when facing a Tigers lineup that is as effective throughout the lineup and possess as many power hitters as they do. The Tigers might be the most potent lineup in the league on the road and the same case can be made with them against southpaws. Along with an aggregate fundamental mismatch, Washburn will also have to face hitters with past success against him. Take away the first inning of Bonderman’s starts, and you may have the most dominant right hander in the AL this season. Bonderman’s slider has made him of the harder starters to get hits off of, and allows him to dominate both right handers and left handers, a nice asset to have against a balanced Mariners lineup. Like Washburn, Bonderman’s productivity on the road the last three years actually surpasses his home numbers. This coupled with the Tigers ability to hit as well as they do away from home minimize the home field advantage in this game. Bonderman’s success against the Mariners has been getting progressively better through the years, and should continue as well. Bonderman’s well hit ratio of off speed pitches and high rate of batters chasing such pitches fundamentally puts a free swinging lineup like the Mariners at a huge disadvantage. His ability to challenge hitters and work quick innings makes him able to work deep into games and avoid the Tigers biggest weakness, their bullpen. The past success against some of the Mariners hitters has fundamental sustainability, while Ibanez and Sexon’s success over him do not.

It is rare for me to have some many games on one card have their intrinsic value deviate from their market price compared to today’s card. Hopefully that is a good thing. Here are three of the eight or nine underdogs that I will have positions on. Tigers +122 Comment: It seems that the Twins have their supporters back after coming back from the all star break with a four game home sweep. However, I would be weary of putting too much stock in their last series, as it was against a team currently playing worse than any other team in the league right now; and they really didn’t win in convincing fashion. After opening up as an underdog against Floyd, it appears that people are finally willing to back Garza after he was able to back up his words with a dominant showing in his first start of the year. However, I would be weary of putting too much stock in Garza as that was a start in the second game of a doubleheader following up a thirty plus run game that was a product of tired bats for the White Sox in game two. Although there is no denying Garza’s “stuff” is the makeup of a big league pitcher, I am not quite sure if he is mentally or (experience wise) ready for a Tigers lineup, which is unequivocally the best road lineup in the league. Nerves got the best of Garza in his home debut last year, and really didn’t show he was ready for the better lineups in the league. His continued struggles against right handed hitters makes him vulnerable to a well balanced lineup like the Tigers. His power pitching style and monitored pitch count does not make him a likely candidate to go deep into this game. Although the Twins have a deep bullpen which holds a decisive advantage over the Tigers pen, with Rincon’s struggles that have pushed back front end pitchers to later innings, the Twins are no longer as strong in the front end to back up a pitcher not likely to eat many innings. The Tigers have not experienced much of a slowdown at the plate coming out of the break, scoring 21 runs in their last three games. The Twins lack of punch at the plate will make them dependent on solid pitching in order to hang with this Tigers team- a variable that is a huge question mark with Garza on the mound. Robertson has been a big disappointment this year. However, his struggles appear to be fully factored into today’s line, and is not a struggling pitcher that holds as much risk as most, as he is backed by the best lineup in the league. Robertson has shown some improvement in his last two outings, as he allowed less than a hit per inning in those two starts against potent Indians and Red Sox lineups. Although lacking impressive career numbers against the Twins, Robertson in fact dominated them last year, and put forth a solid outing in his only start against them this year. In fact, there is not a pitcher in the league that has dominated the combination of Mauer and Morneau more than Robertson, as they come into today’s game a combined six for 40 against him. The eight day lay off should do Robertson’s tired arm some good, and help improve his command that has suffered because of it. So should the notion of the Twins only having 22 home runs against southpaws this year and just one starter hitting over .300 against such a pitcher. He has shown some career success pitching indoors. Giants +134 Comment: It is not very likely in which you will see trends consisting of a hot public favorite team, an aging and anemic hitting team that is currently in a downward spiral and backed by the most underachieving pitcher in baseball not fully factored in the line. There comes a point in which one has to take the position possessing all the negatives, and at this current price, the Giants appear to be that team. Although I am not surprised to see Zito having a year well below what was expected of him, expect him to improve off his current numbers that seem to be holding a lot of stock into the current market price. Zito has been known as an improving second half pitcher. His first half woes had a lot to do with a lack of command and high walk total, products of being overworked and simply trying to hard- two variables that that may be improved by the long layoff, the notion that the Giants have finally capitulated, and going up against a not so terribly patient lineup. During Zito’s disappointing season, he has quietly been pitching to right handed hitters as efficiently as he has in a while, an asset you want to possess going up against a Cubs lineup loaded from the right side. Past domination against the only two starters with over ten at bats against him should also give him a confidence boost he is in dire need of. There is no denying that the Cubs lineup is as hot as it has been all season. That said, the recipe to cool down their lineup is giving throwing two variables that they have not faired terribly well against all season- southpaws and finesse pitchers, which is exactly what Zito is. I still don’t understand the strategy of putting Marshall behind Hill in the rotation, but that may partially be the cause of his recent slowdown. Another reason for his recent regression is simply lacking the tangibles to keep his current rate sustained. The elusive first pitch strike that plagued him in the minors and last year had improved when called up. Since then it has regressed, forcing him to fall behind counts and making his curveball less effective. There was not a team in the league that gave him more problems than the Giants last year, as their veteran hitters utilized a patient approach that took advantage of his lack of command. Past success against a pitcher and a high walk propensity are two key variables that a struggling lineup needs to get their confidence back at the plate. The Cubs recent success finally has caught up to their line.

Cardinals +112 Comment: Until Vanden Hurk can translate his dominant pitches into effectiveness on the mound, setting him as a favorite at the big league level is quite suspect in my opinion. Getting called up for the third time may do the trick, but unless his command improves, any big league lineup will continue to give him a lot of problems. Being a notorious flyball pitcher that allows a lot of walks and pitching in a hitter’s park are not ideal variables to possess, as it can quickly turn walks into two run home runs. Nerves have also shown to get the better of him, as his dominant minor league stats compared to the majors, and his inability to find the strike zone at home has shown to be problems as well. The Cardinals have been swinging the bat well in their last two games, as they are determined to make a second half push. Backed by a suspect and inconsistent bullpen should give the Cardinals scoring opportunities throughout this game. Thompson has been hit or miss, but his potential and putting forth three good starts in a row appear not to be fully recognized by the current line. Readjusting back to the starting rotation sometimes takes time for a young pitcher, as it was the case for Wainwright as well. Thompson’s recent improvements out of the starting rotation should be signs of things to come. He has a premier sinkerball to keep a power lineup like the Marlins at bay. Part of Thompson’s struggles this year have stemmed from being dominated by left handed bats, as his sinkerball that he heavily relies on has been dominated by such hitters. Facing probably the most anemic lineup in the NL from the left side should offset this deficiency. Facing an aggressive lineup that compliments his pitch for contact style should also help him out. Backed by the deeper and better bullpen should put pressure on the Marlins to get to him, otherwise, this favorite may have a hard time winning this game.

Tigers -122 No denying that the Twins are one of the harder teams to sweep at home; however, if a road team were to do it, it would be the Tigers. After winning the two harder games, the Tigers now have a good fundamental match up to seal the deal. It was only a matter of time in which Bonderman’s overpowering arsenal of pitchers would translate to being one of the most dominant pitchers in the game, and it appears that time has finally come. He has put forth four quality starts in a row, including one against the Twins earlier in the month. There is no fundamental reason for his unimpressive career totals against the Twins, and in fact, he has shown that those numbers clearly lack sustainability by putting forth five quality starts in his last six tries against them. His improved changeup has been fooling left handed bats this season, making him a force against both right handers and left handed hitters this year, which was something that he was unable to attain in past seasons. In fact, he has been one of the most overpowering right handers against left handed hitters this year, which does not bode well for a Twins lineup whose two best hitters bat from the left side. Hunters most likely absence in today’s lineup should prove costly, as there is not a hitter on the team with more past success against Bonderman than he has. Bondermans efficiency allows him to work deep into games and avoid the Tigers suspect bullpen better than any other starter on the team. The Twins have not looked terribly effective at the plate since the break against pitchers that possess nowhere near the dominance that Bonderman does. The Tigers best road hitting lineup will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they would like to avenge Bakers dominant performance against them at home. After facing Garza and Santana, don’t expect Baker’s stuff to overwhelm this lineup. Baker is a hit or miss pitcher whose inconsistency can quickly end a game. Until he shows that he can be somewhat effective against the left handed hitters that he faces, expect a lot of this bad starts to remain in Baker’s resume, especially when playing against a lineup that is loaded from the left side. Although he was able to dominate the Tigers in his only outing against them this season, the sustainability is clearly not their, as the Tigers showed no problem dominating him last season, and fundamentally match up well against his style. Baker continues to show more vulnerability pitching at home, where his fly ball propensity is less forgiving. The Tigers have the power spread around the lineup to capitalize on his style any given inning. 17 home runs allowed in less than 100 career innings of work at home will simply not cut it against the Tigers and Bonderman. Backed by a solid bullpen, yet a bullpen in which the Tigers have gotten a good look at the last couple of games. In my opinion, the Tigers are slightly undervalued with their current market price. Phillies +118 Young is no longer flying under the public radar, and what was once an undiscovered gem has quickly become a public darling. However, in reality, as far as quality of pitching goes, their really isn’t much of a disparity between these starting pitchers on the mound today. Both being notorious flyball pitchers, Young has been helped out by the spacious home park in which he pitches in, while Hammels home park has been counter effective to his pitching style. Being an NL West pitcher also allows Young to pitch against a lot of weak hitting lineups that can not take advantage of his style of pitching, which also can not be said for Hammels. Don’t be surprised if Young finally comes back to earth in this game, as not only do the Phillies have the power spread around the lineup to get those flyballs up, but they also have the speed on the basepaths to take advantage of Young being the worst pitcher in the league in holding runners on base. Although Young was able to overcome this deficiency earlier this month against the Dodgers, there is no denying that speed on the basepaths takes its toll on Young mentally and physically, and it is only a matter of time in which it should result in runs. Young’s last deficiency (albeit improved) can also be capitalized by the Phillies lineup, as his bouts of wildness can be magnified against one of the more patient lineups in the league. Put Hammels in Petco and against NL West lineups in half his starts, and he would have Cy Young caliber numbers as well. Today he will have a good chance of showcasing his talent as he pitches against a lineup and inside a park that fundamentally compliment his pitching style. Hammels has been vulnerable against right handed power hitters, something in which the Padres lack. Being loaded from the left side could be a problem against a southpaw who is hard to pick up for left handed batters. Hammels change up and pitch disparity prove to be a timing issue for lineups that have not seen a lot of him. Having only faced him once in his career could be a problem for the Padres, especially during their first go around, which should help Hammel’s recent struggles first time through the opponent’s lineup. Hammels gives the Phillies the best chance of avoiding their suspect bullpen, which has gotten a bit deeper with the return of Gordon.

Yes, I valued them at a price right around the current market price. With a somewhat “bullish” valuation on Maroth and “bearish” (based on past valuations below his market prices), I am a bit surprised the Cardinals are not coming with more value today. I guess getting swept by the Red and playing 15 yesterday will not make people get to excited about laying -180 on the Braves.

Rangers -120 There is not a team on the card in my opinion whose market price is deviating from their true worth more than the Rangers. After battling early season struggles and injuries, Millwood appears to have slowly gotten things back on track, as he enters tonight’s game with six straight quality starts. During this span, he has lowered his flyball/groundball ratio (which has been the main reasons for his home struggles since joining the Rangers, as it is an unforgiving park for flyball pitchers). He has also increased his strikeout rate, decreased his hit rate and well hit rate, and has now gone five straight starts without allowing a home run- all fundamental signs pointing he is finally back to form. Despite being the fourth start against the Mariners this year, this will be the first start in which he has faced them since he can be considered “himself”. During last years “off-season” Millwood still managed to have success against this lineup, which is not much of a surprise, as aside from Suzuki, the Mariners simply lack the ideal threats from the left side to take advantage of Millwood’s fundamental deficiencies he has as a pitcher. The Mariners have shown signs of slowdown since the break, and enter today’s game with two straight goose eggs against right handed pitchers (including one against a struggling pitcher). The catalyst of their offense is no doubt Suzuki, a leadoff hitter hitting just .250 this month, and is hitless in his last eight at bats. Millwood is a savvy veteran who could make the aggressiveness the Mariners hitters have at the plate work against them, much like the last two right handers did against them. The Rangers have one of the deeper and more underrated bullpens in baseball, and have the ideal depth to not make the injury to Otsuka be one they can not overcome. Millwood is not the only variable for the Rangers that appear to be heading in the right track, as their lineup has shown cohesiveness that has resulted in wins this month. The Rangers have managed to win half their games this month, despite having to play 60 percent of them against the Angels, Red Sox and Indians. Their improved play appears to be most notable at home, while the return of Texeria has finally made their lineup a threat. Today they have a good chance to continue their upward trend against a pitcher that hasn’t seemed right for years, as a series of injuries has taken a chronic effect on his efficiency. Although his ERA over the last three years clearly identifies a liability on the mound, his pitching peripherals show a much more vulnerable pitcher. Ramirez, even when right, has never been a good road pitcher, a trend that appears to be getting progressively worse. In this years limited road action; he is taking it to an entirely different level, entering this game allowing 23 runs in just 15 innings of work. His high walk total is a deficiency that can prove costly in this park, as the last thing you want to give is free baserunners here. The Mariners thought his saving grace would be his effectiveness against left handed bats, a variable that has become less effective each year, and in current form is a non factor. His off-speed pitch has been completely ineffective this season, forcing him to have to rely on his sub par fastball more than he would like, and a pitch this Rangers lineup has been tearing up. The Mariners front end bullpen has been struggling of late, a portion that appears unavoidable for Ramirez.

Mets -140 Prior to the all star break, the Pirates were a value team to bet on for patient bettors willing to stomach games in which they resembled more characteristics of a minor league club than a major league one. “Public” bettors not only shied away from this consistently priced underdog, but were blindly betting against them no matter the cost. This allowed the Pirates to be one of the most undervalued teams in the league on a consistent basis. However, the same can not be said for this team after the break, as if there was one team that has already packed it in and is showing a lack of effort, it is the Pirates. Winning just one out of their ten games post break, and scoring more than two runs in just half their games since the break, the Pirates appear to be temporary dead money, and also provide Glavine an opportunity to bounce back from a horrible outing against the Dodgers. Glavine has shown some regression this year, as there has been several starts this season in which he looks thoroughly dominated on the mound. He, more than any other pitcher in the league is dependent on the home plate umpire giving him margin off the plate, as anything he throws over the plate is vulnerable to being hit hard. Fortunately for his cause, he gets a generous umpire in today’s game. He also gets to face an anemic lineup whose aggressiveness at the plate will be used against them when dealing with Glavine’s style of pitching. Despite his struggles this season, Glavine remains dominant at home, as he appears to have reached a real comfort zone on this mound, while the parks dimensions curtail his propensity to allow the long ball. Glavine has really been struggling against left handed hitters in recent starts, a newfound deficiency that should be helped out by the Pirates lineup lacking talent from that side of the plate. He has had past success against a few hitters in the Pirates lineup, while the ones he has struggled against have been easy outs at the plate this month. Backed by one of the better bullpens in the league should force a struggling Pirates lineup to get the lead early against a veteran pitcher in bounce back mode, looking for his 300th win in a park which he continues to be dominant in. Some say Gorzelanny is one of the most disrespected pitchers by linesmakers. I am not sure that is the case, as I simply think he is pitching a bit over his head, as some of his peripherals provide a strong case for regression. Don’t be surprised if this potential regression happens sooner than later, as he is residing at an inning count which he arm has never been accustomed to, and has already slowly showing signs of wearing down. His pitches per inning have progressively been increasing, as his off speed pitch is becoming less effective and less prone to being chased. This does not bode well for his chances going up against a patient lineup, as his fastball is not overpowering and has been hit hard all season. The Mets have had no problem getting to him last year, as they have the talent from the right side to make him struggle. Gorzelanny’s high walk propensity is also a deficiency magnified when facing this Mets lineup. Backed by very anemic run support has put pressure on the Pirates young pitching staff in recent series. Until the Pirates show some heart, I have no problem betting against them. Cardinals -104 The Cubs inevitable hot streak has once again returned them to “public darling” status that is accompanied with “blind” monetary backing. Today their backing has made them an even money road team against one of the hottest pitchers in the game. As expected, Wainwright’s early season struggles were only temporary, as he had to readjust to the starting role and get his dominant curveball back. As he has improved these two variables, he has gotten better each month, and has allowed just one run in his last fourteen innings of work. He has gotten progressively better against right handed hitters, which is a good sign, as they batted just .182 against him last year, while the Cubs talent at the plate predominately comes from the right side. Wainwright’s struggles against the Cubs this season was more a product of not being right rather than a fundamental mismatch, as both starts against them occurred in April, where he put forth a six plus ERA. Wainwright has also improved his ground ball rate and well hit ratio each passing month, which a huge asset is going against a lineup with home run power spread across from top to bottom. He is also backed by a deep bullpen that could keep the Cubs bats at bay. Although the Cubs are one of the hotter teams in the league, they has shown some slowdown at the plate their last three games against sub par pitching, a potential trend that a hot pitcher like Wainwright has a good chance of continuing. Lilly’s season is an inverse to Wainwright’s, as he has been getting progressively worse each passing month. Although he has put up a dominant July, his four starts this month were against the Giants, Pirates, Nationals, and Astros, arguably the four worst lineups in the league. Although the Cardinals can not be construed as a major threat at the plate, they have been one of the better hitting NL clubs the last couple of months, and are no longer the pushovers against southpaws that they were last year. They have the ability to put four or five hitters in the lineup hitting over .300 against left handed pitching this year. Lilly has never been a good road pitcher, and has also been known to tire out as the season progresses. This is one of the few series in which the Cubs do not have a bullpen edge, which should force Lilly to outshine a hot Wainwright. Late inning leads have become more vulnerable since the return of Dempster, especially against a Cardinals team known to give him problems. As a backer of the Cubs most of the season, it may appear that they are finally reaching overvalued status.

Prior to seeing the lineups, I would have bet on the Angels at any price better than -160. Without Guerrero and a couple others, my price target (not intrinsic value) dropped down to -154. As expected, the Angels were unable to keep their hot streak early in the season at the plate sustained for a long period of time. However, they dropped at a much faster rate than I had anticipated, and can be construed as a dangerous team to lay this amount of basis points on. That said, I think their recent slump is fully reflected in their day to day pricing, and probably don’t provide a good go against during their downward trend. Lackey is their stopper, is in bounceback mode, and has owned the A’s. He should put forth a solid outing. Everyone is expecting the A’s to put forth their annual second half surge. Although I expect them to get better, they are just not the same team as years past. They need a dominant bullpen, as winning close games is customary to their success. Until their bullpen gets upgraded via injury returns and their current pitchers pitching to their ability, a second half run may not happen. That said, they are still a young team that thrives on any momentum they could get. They just got it with their last two games. Appears to be a stay away game unless there is a material drop in price on the Angels. I bet the Reds this morning, but no online shop currently has them trading below my target. Everyone knows the Brewers are a different team on the road- but that deficiency is factored into the line. What I don’t feel people realize is that Suppan’s struggles this season is more than just a slump, rather his success the last couple of years was merely a hot streak coupled with good luck. Don’t expect him to get much better from here on out, and may be overwhelmed once again in this park and against this lineup. Lohse is a hit or miss pitcher who is very streaky. That said, he has been dominant at home and has done an excellent job keeping the ball inside this bandbox, which could prove vital against the Brewers. I don’t mind backing him with expected run support. Good luck.

Been in a little rut, so my opinion should be taken with a grain of salt. White Sox -118 In my opinion, there is not another team on today’s card trading below their true worth than the White Sox. Although the White Sox are merely 7 and 9 since the break, you could defiantly see the difference in the team moral and quality of play in recent series. They also managed to put forth that record while playing a series against a decent home team in the Orioles, two of the better home teams in the Indians and Red Sox and then finally coming back home to play the best road team in baseball in the Tigers. During that 16 game span, the White Sox managed to score five or more runs in 10 of those games, as several of their key hitters finally seem to be breaking out of their slump, while their role players are doing the little things that lead to their success the last couple of years. Today they start a series in which should be their easiest since hosting the Orioles the first week of the month. Despite picking up steam themselves, the Blue Jays are simply less potent on the road once again this year. On the pitching front, Garland is on “bounce back mode” for the fifth time this season, as he makes his first start since struggling in Fenway. Garland followed up his first four bounce back starts with quality ones, not allowing more than two earned runs in any of them, while going at least seven. Garlands struggles in July can be correlated to facing tough lineups, dealing with a knot in his shoulder and pitching with flu like symptoms- three variables that should be less of a factor in today’s game (Blue Jays can not be construed as a potent road lineup). Second half struggles have not been part of Garland’s repertoire the last couple of years, so assuming peaked production and possible dead army may not be prudent. When on, his ability to condense pitch counts and avoid a suspect bullpen should be complimented by an aggressive Blue Jays lineup, that is more potent against left handed pitchers and/or right handed power pitchers. Past success against the Blue Jays may be absent, but success against a few key hitters is not. A drop off in home productivity is skewed by that infamous Twins game. Having a sharp sinker always comes in handing when pitching in such a bandbox. Towers has put forth two solid outings in his last three, but sustainability may be lacking. Despite having great command commensurate to hot streaks, Towers simply lacks an overpowering pitch to prevent him from being vulnerable in any given start. His low BABIP this month is not commensurate to past history or his recent well hit ball rate during that time span- which provides signs of potential regression. Continued struggles on the road from last year also exists, as he comes into today’s game with a seven plus road ERA. Towers is also prone to the long ball and not effective in holding runners on base- two other variables that can be magnified in this park, against an improving White Sox lineup, and a team that has shown more aggressiveness on the basepaths. As a small home favorite, I will take my chances on Garland. Other Undervalued teams Yankees- Since Guthrie’s dominating outing against the Yankees earlier this year, both the Yankees and Guthrie have gone in opposite directions. Guthrie has put forth a 4.10 ERA this month, but future regression off those numbers is still probable, as his BABIP and well hit rate still reside in unsustainable territory, while a decreasing GB ratio shows a decrease in command. On the other hand, the Yankees are the hottest lineup in the league, and far more productive since facing Guthrie last time out. Pettite has been solid on the road this year, put forth a quality start in his only outing against the Orioles this year, has had success against a few key hitters, and his ability to hold runners on as well as any should curtail the Orioles greatest asset-speed on the base paths. Twins- Bonser is streaky, and is coming off one of his best starts in his career (had a shutout going into the 8th). The Indians bats have been slowing down, something not ideal when being backed by Byrd at home. The Twins have the better rested and more efficient bullpen, which should put pressure on Byrd to pitch well at home- something that is easier said than done throughout his career.

Marlins Not many people are willing to back Olsen and the baggage he is prone to bringing to the mound any given start, but at this price I will. Olsen has been drastically underachieving all season as both mental and fundamental factors have been affecting his performances on the mound. After getting a vote of confidence this week by the Marlins coupled with being in bounceback mode and at home where his performances have the tendency of improving, don’t be surprised if you see a motivated effort out of him in this game. Part of the fundamental problems affecting his pitching performances this year has been his inability to consistently set up his fastball with his overpowering slider and changeup. This deficiency should be helped out by facing a young lineup vulnerable to going out of the strike zone and helping a pitcher who happens to be struggling with his command. With the majority of his pitching peripherals getting worse each month, this backing is more predicated on talent and speculation than recent form. The Rockies productivity on the road continues to be nowhere near their home performance, and should be quantified accordingly. Unlike Olsen, Cook has been getting better each month, and is currently pitching in a month in which his BABIP, strike out rate and walk rate has significantly improved. That said, Cook continues to show a propensity of his performances being heavily correlated to the quality lineup he is up against. Facing just 8 “plus” lineups all season, and allowing five or more runs in four of those starts, Cook is still prone to being overpowered by a quality lineup like the Marlins. Cook is a rare sinkerballer struggling more against right handed hitting this year, a favorable variable for a Marlins lineup loaded from the right side and prone to struggle against most sinkerball pitchers. Cubs Things should get much easier for this Cubs lineup that just faced one of the nastiest pitchers in baseball and now get to face one of the most hittable ones. False hope is all that appears left in expecting Eaton will return to the pitcher he was prior to his injuries. He just isn’t. He has been beaten and battered in almost every one of his starts this season, and despite facing his lowest opponent lineup quality rating this month, he has posted his worst numbers this season in the month of July. With having one of the lowest chase percentages in the league, Eaton will not be able to take advantage of the aggressive tendencies the Cubs lineup possess like Hammels was last night. Backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league should allow a potent Cubs lineup to have a break out game. I am not a big fan of backing Marquis, especially with his current form he has displayed on the mound of late; I don’t have a problem backing him at this price and with expected ideal run support. What Marquis has improved on this year has been his effectiveness against left handed hitters and lowering his walk rate, two variables that should be magnified when facing a Phillies lineup that is talented from the left side and is the most patient one in the NL. Having dominance over Rollins, success over Rowand, and injuries to Utley, Victorino and Bourn, the Cubs will have the luxury of pitching around Howard and force a role player to beat them. The Cubs depth in their bullpen will give Pinella the ability to take Marquis out early, something that can not be done with Eaton. Diamondbacks Don’t expect Germano to return to the dominant form he was pitching at earlier in the season. He just isn’t that type of pitcher. With the league finally figuring him out, Germano’s BABIP and well hit ratio have both increased significantly this month. However, so has his walk rate and his flyball ratio, while his strikeout rate has decreased, which are also signs indicative of potential dead arm. Germano will also have to face the Diamondbacks for the second time this month. Although this might not seem like much, this is only the third time in which a team has gotten a second go against Germano. The first two happened to be the Braves and Mariners, who were both overmatched in their first try against him just like the DBacks were, but were able to put up a combined 12 runs in just nine innings of work in their second go around with Germano. Germano has also not been able to take advantage of the confines of his home park, and although backed by a top tier bullpen, a bullpen with a few struggling pitchers in their arsenal. Webb is once again quietly having a Cy Young type season, and will get to continue his upward trend against a Padres team he has had the upper hand against this season. Webb has faced them three times this season, and has yet to allow more than three runs in any of those starts. Webb goes as far as his sinker takes him, which is no surprise he is prone to dry spells. With his strike out rate this month higher than it has been in three seasons, coupled with a ground ball rate above career norm this month, it is apparent his sinker is working well at this point and time. He is also backed by one of the most effective and underrated pens in baseball. His ability to pitch as well on the road as he does at home, coupled with the Padres continued struggles hitting at home this season, minimizes home field advantage in this game.

Red Sox Bedard has been the flavor of the month for public bettors. Although it has paid off for such bettors in his recent outings, he must be looked at as an ongoing concern, and appears overvalued, even against a public favorite like the Red Sox. Bedard’s dominance in his last four outings has been incredibly impressive. But lets not forget those four starts were against a Rangers, White Sox, Devil Rays and A’s lineup all prone to being overpowered. Bedard’s success has been largely predicated on getting hitters to go out of the zone and chase his pitches. This holds especially true during his current hot streak where both his strike out rate and walk rate has gone up. Although such a style can out match most lineups, it leaves him vulnerable to patient lineups like the Red Sox and also accumulating high pitch counts early in games and leaving early, which does not bode ell when backed by an underachieving bullpen. Bedard has a history of struggling against the Red Sox and also has never been as effective as a road starter. Expect the Red Sox patience at the plate to force Bedard to come into the strike zone more in this outing, and also force him to an early exit. Bedard is not the only dominant pitcher in this game currently in top form, as Beckett has taken his impressive season to another level this month, as all four of his July starts have been quality ones, and has done it against a potent Indians and Blue Jays lineup. Unlike Bedard whose success has been by getting hitters to chase, Becketts current hot streak has been predicated on challenging hitters and simply overpowering them. His strike out rate has taken a substantial jump this month, while his walk rate has leveled out in low territory. Past success against the Orioles should and fundamentally matching up well against this lineup makes his hot streak more sustainable tonight than his counterparts. Although the Orioles have been playing much better of late, they continue to be much less dangerous as a road team, and during their hot streak, have not been able to put forth a winning road record despite playing series against struggling home teams in the White Sox, Rangers and A’s this month. Blue Jays This is not a play on Litsh and his unsustainable 4.00 ERA, rather a go against Jackson and the Drays worst bullpen in baseball that will come to follow. Just when some finally thought Jackson finally put together the missing pieces in his pitching arsenal by going six scoreless against the Yankees, he returns to his former self by getting dominated by the Orioles in his last outing. His propensity to allow the flyball and inability to pitch to both right handed hitters and left handed ones makes him especially vulnerable when pitching in his home park, against lineups with power spread throughout the lineup, and against lineups that have an ideal balance of right and left handed bats- all three variables working against him. Although Wheeler improves the Drays bullpen, his presence comes at a time in which their best bullpen arm, Reyes, is at his worst. Having gone over an inning yesterday reduces his potential role in this game, allowing a Blue Jays lineup to face some really poor pitching throughout this game. Litsch’s peripherals and pitching potential support future regression. That said he has a good spot to continue his overachieving ways in this game, as he faces a struggling lineup whose aggressiveness at the plate will work against them when facing his finesse style of pitching. Backed by one of the deeper and better bullpens in the league should allow him to leave at early signs of struggle. Twins Although Silva has shown some serious regression this month, making a lot of people think that he has returned to the pitcher he was last year, I don’t think that is the case. Last years disastrous season was in large part due to the ineffectiveness of his sinkerball that forced his fly ball rate to be at levels far worse than your typical sinkerball pitcher. During his July struggles, Silva has still managed a decent ground ball rate, indicative that his sinkerball is still working some. A lot of his recent struggles have occurred on the road, where he just isn’t the same type of pitcher, and returning back home against a lineup that he has had some success against should give him a good opportunity to make things right again. Backed by a top tier bullpen should limit the damage if things don’t get right. De La Rosa has also witnessed some serious regression, as his problem of the past, his lack of control coupled with increased fly ball propensity out of the stretch has returned in during the last couple of months. This does not bode well when facing a Twins lineup, who will take everything a pitcher, will give them, and will make the most out of their free passes. It is no surprise that he has generate a 19.7% walk rate in his career against the Twins, which is concerning while supporting one over 12 this month.

Angels Now that the Angels got their letdown at the plat out of their system last night, they have an ideal opportunity to continue their upward trend against Weaver tonight. Although Weaver has been dominant in the month of June and July, lets not get carried away and forget who we are dealing with. Weaver’s fly ball rate and walk rate are actually above the level they were residing in during his disastrous start of the season, while although his well hit ratio has improved, they still reside at dangerous grounds. It is safe to assume he is prone to some regression. Weaver’s career long ineffectiveness against left handed bats leaves him vulnerable against and Angels lineup that will show him six. Although Lackey has struggled since the break, I still think this is just a temporary glitch in his season, as his BABIP has increased at a faster rate than his well hit ratio, while his walk rate has stayed the same and his strike out rate has increased. The Mariners bats are also in a downward trend since the break, making their past success against Lackey less sustainable tonight. Lackey got a huge confidence boost in his only start against the Mariners this season, after being owned by them last year. Escobar’s ability to go the entire game last night gives the Angels the ability to react on early warning signs. Tigers I still think the second half surge that is expected (but more than likely will not come) is continuing to bid up A’s prices. Haren’s unsustainable productivity is also bidding up the line at a price making taking the best road team in baseball attractive. Haren has shown strong evidence that he has peaked. His strike out rate has dropped 25% in July when compared to the last two months, while his well hit ratio has resided in mediocre territory this month. He has also shown strong evidence of playing the role of opportunist and getting to pitch in the AL West, as he has been vulnerable in three of the last four starts against plus lineups. Past struggles against the Tigers should continue, as he is about to face the best lineup he has seen out of them. Backed by a struggling bullpen will force Haren to curtail his signs of regression. The only chance the A’s have in getting to Verlander is if they could take advantage of his potential bouts of wildness. That said, it might be easier said than done in this game, as his currently resides in a month in which his walk rate has been the best since in the middle of last season, while he is also backed by a liberal umpire. Verlander is prone to getting worn down late in the year, and his 28% ground ball rate this month is clear evidence he is on the brink of such again. However, pitching in a spacious park and against a lineup lacking power, Verlander’s regression signs should be curtailed.

Data mining, or more accurately defined data dredging runs rampant amongst handicappers on baseball forums. They tend to find “trends” that are nothing more than mere randomness, and justify a bet based on such nonsensical “noise”. Not only that, even if such randomness holds substance, they fail to quantify the true impact, but rather premise a bet solely on the aggregate of favorable trends. You won’t have to look hard to find such handicappers. When you see people saying bet this team because they are 20-8 on Tuesdays, 12 and 4 in their last 16 games following a loss, 4-2 in their last 6 against left handed pitching fail to understand that there will always exist such outliers that lack correlation to future outcomes. The information I try to quantify are underlying fundamentals that hold strong influence and predictive measures on the numbers for all to see. They are more than just “noise”. Stats and trends are very misleading when not understanding the substance behind them. Data miners stop at "what", when in reality they should stop at "why".

Cubs Mostly a go-against Moyer, as there are a lot of variables working against him in this game. Moyer has been known for second half meltdowns as he ages, as it appears he just can’t handle the grind of the entire season any longer. Last season, Moyer finished the second half with an ERA well over five, and appears on his way of such again this year, finishing the month of July with a near seven ERA. Moyer’s style of pitching is heavily dependent on which ballpark he pitches in and who is behind home plate- two variables not working in his favor in this game, as Wrigley can be unforgiving for fly ball pitchers, as the Cubs power lineup can make the same statement. Emmel is not known to give the corners, which does not bode well for Moyer, whose strategy is to get hitters to chase out of the zone. He has been really hittable in recent starts, and has been especially vulnerable to right handed power hitters, a deficiency that might come into play tonight, as he will be forced to face four. Backed by a sub par bullpen should allow the Cubs to face hittable pitchers throughout this game. Hill has shown some regression the last couple of months, and may be prone to some more, but being able to pitch three quality starts in a row despite a high walk total is a good sign. His ability to overwhelm both right and left handed hitters is a good sign when going up against a balanced lineup like the Phillies. The Phillies productivity at the plate decreases when up against southpaws, a variable magnified with two solid hitters against southpaws, Utley and Victorino, out of the lineup, which also puts more pressure on Burrell (.228 against lefties) and Howard (.233 against lefties) to produce. Hill is also backed by the deeper and better bullpen, that proved to be the difference in yesterdays game. Padres I feel that Wells recent woes are fully discounted by the marketplace- and then some. After being dominated by two veteran, patient lineups in the Phillies and Astros, Wells style will now be complimented by a young and aggressive Diamondbacks one. Wells recent propensity to allow the long ball should be helped out tonight by pitching in Petco and being able to face a lineup with just 20 home runs against southpaws. The Diamondbacks continue to be unable to pick up left handed pitching, lacking a batter able to crack the .300 mark, and possessing just one with more than three home runs against this style of pitching. Wells has always been know to pitch better at home, and continues to put forth impressive numbers at Petco this season, coming into this game with a 3.55 home ERA. Backed by a top tier bullpen should only require five to six innings out of Wells. Despite anticipating a decent bounce back performance out of Wells, this is most a go- against Owings, who has shown a lot of evidence that he is not ready for the big leagues ( no start more foretelling than his last, walking the pitcher with the bases loaded, and then hitting the following batter). The added pressure of this start maybe being his last shot to earn a spot in the rotation can not do a young pitcher that looks beat mentally on the mound any good. Pitching just one quality start in his last seven and posting a plus nine ERA in the month of July is exactly what a struggling Padres lineup needs to get back on track. Most of Owings struggles have occurred against left handed hitters, which do not bode well for his chances, going up against a lineup that is more than likely going to show him five. The Padres hitters do not go out of the strike zone very often, which should not bode well for Owings bouts of wildness. Giants There probably has not been a more dominant pitcher in baseball during the last month compared to Lincecum. After being mentally overwhelmed for a few starts, Lincecum has finally regained his confidence back, allowing his talent to do the talking on the mound. He has the ability to use three pitches that has made veteran hitters look foolish, and his improved command in recent outings, has allowed him to use all three in appropriate circumstances. Teams were able to hit just .181 against him in the month of July, which allowed him to post an ERA well under 2. Lineups look especially overwhelmed by his stuff the first couple of go-arounds, which does not bode well for a Dodgers lineup yet to see what he is all about. He has been as dominant against left handed bats as he has against right handed one, and has shown no problems pitching on the road. His improved first pitch strike rate will not do a patient lineup like the Dodgers any good. His improved efficiency allows him to not accumulate a high pitch count despite being a strike out pitcher, thus allowing him to avoid the underbelly of the bullpen. The Giants bullpen continues to pitch well, and have not shown any signs of slowdown. The Dodgers are a team dangerous on the basepaths, but getting baserunners against Lincecum has been harder than any other pitcher in baseball last month. Hendrickson is a hit or miss pitcher, whose home struggles in Tampa that were initially blamed by the park, has carried over to LA despite pitching in a friendly park for flyball pitchers like himself. He is clearly getting this start by default, as his numbers took a nose dive in July, allowing opposing batters to hit .320 against him, forcing him to generate a 6 plus ERA. Hendrickson is not a deep inning pitcher, while the underbelly of the Dodgers bullpen is beaten and battered, which should allow the Giants to face struggling pitchers throughout this game. This is not an ideal situation for a Dodgers team facing the hottest pitcher in the game.

Will add the rest of the plays in a little bit. Pirates It’s hard to back a team that finds new ways to lose each game (i.e. unable to put the Reds away in the later innings by failing to score with the bases loaded and no outs, and later blowing the save), but have no problem backing them at this price. Arroyo just isn’t the same pitcher he was last year, while the novelty effect of facing his backward style has worn off for NL lineups. Coming off his worst start of the season, Arroyo has not proven to be a good bounce back starter, allowing six runs in four straight outing already once this season. The Pirates proved more than capable of hitting his style of pitching in his only start against them this season. Backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball should allow a lot of scoring opportunities throughout this game for this Pirates lineup. The Pirates bats are quietly showing some signs of life at the plate during the last few games, averaging 8 runs per game in their last four, with a game low of four. Gorzelanny if coming off a two week layoff after dealing with shoulder pains, but should come into this game fresher than he has been in a while. Although I have been a bit bearish on the sustainability of his numbers for some time, this appears to be a good spot for him to come back strong off his Mets outing, as his finesse style of pitching that dominates left handed bats can overwhelm a Reds lineup loaded from the left side. Allowing just two home runs to left handed bats all season, should curtail the power the Reds have from the left side, and force them into manufacturing mode their lineup is not suited for. The Pirates don’t have the best of bullpens, but have a decisive edge over their counterparts. Marlins I have been hurt on several occasions betting on Olsen this year, but will continue to do so if I feel the price is right and the situation calls for it. Aside from one bad inning in his last outing where his head just wasn’t in the game, Olsen did do a lot of things right in his last start against a hot Rockies lineup. Today he has a good opportunity to put forth a decent outing against a dormant Astros lineup whose backend is as bad as it gets. In a game in which a good amount of run support is expect, the risk of Olsen putting forth a capitulating start diminishes substantially. This go against the Astros pitching staff against a dangerous Marlins lineup. Abbers hasn’t shown much at the big league level the last couple of years, and has shown evidence of a drop off. Bouts of wildness is in his resume, not ideal for a ground ball pitcher, as his HR% per flyball and walk rate is in dangerous territory when facing this type of lineup. Not known to go deep into games is also the last thing the Astros want, as their bullpen is absolutely shot right now, and overmatched even when fresh. Royals Hard to bet against a team as hot as the Yankees, but I have no problem doing so, as you simply can not pass up this kind of price when betting on a team that only holds a lineup disadvantage, as the Royals have the better starter and bullpen going today. Mussina is being priced on name alone, as he is no longer a plus pitcher. He is coming off a really poor July, which is the last thing the Yankees want to see in Mussina, as he has shown a patter of second half drop off late in his career. His well hit ratio in his last few outings has taken a substantial jump, and remained at a high rate even in his better outings. The Royals hit him well last year, and as a team, seem to play to the level of their competition, as they have been hanging in series with the best teams in the league, making them a very dangerous underdog. I am not expecting Meche to dominate the best and hottest lineup in the league, but I am expecting him to put forth an outing that gives the Royals a chance of winning this game. He is a pitcher that has always had top tier stuff, but lacked the mental component and proper mechanics to put it all together. This year he has improved both variables substantially, allowing him to quietly put forth a solid season. Always known to be a poor road pitcher, it has been the contrary this season, as he has some of the better road numbers in the league this season. Past years he put forth solid outings against this Yankees lineup, and has really improved his command in recent starts. Backed by a deep and underrated bullpen should not demand a lot of innings out of Meche. Cardinals Blind fades of the Nationals are slowly jumping ship and some are now starting to back them as a momentum play, potentially finally creating an opportunity to go against them. Wainwright continues to get better each month, and finishing out the last two with an ERA well below 3.80. His ground ball rate, strike out rate, and walk rate were all at seasons high in July, and have no reason to believe he slows down now. Allowing just three home runs all season on the road, coupled with an improved command should make scoring opportunities for the Nats hard to come by. I am not a big fan of Chico when going up against veteran lineups unwilling to chase his stuff. He lacks the overpowering pitches to challenge hitters with, and the increased patience his opponents have shown at the plate has not done him well. Being a notorious fly ball pitcher whose well hit ratio has increased is grounds for regression. Brewers I am not a big fan of betting on Suppan, but will be willing to do so at this price while given a chance to go against Eaton. Suppan’s past struggles against the Phillies lack sustainability, as most success came from hitters no longer on the team or Utley. The absence of both Utley and Victorino curtail Suppan’s biggest deficiency of pitching to left handed hitters. Not easy to hit home runs off of and improved efficiency in his home starts should give him a chance to hang with this Phillies lineup. Backed by the deeper and better bullpen gives the Brewers more leverage in handling their volatile pitcher. I have said it before and will say it again- Eaton will more than likely never be the pitcher he once was prior to his injuries, and is a liability on the mound since those injuries. He is in the midst of a nightmare season, and has shown no signs of getting out, as he has been getting worse each month. A flyball pitcher whose flyball rate is steadily getting higher is not something you want going against this Brewers lineup in this bandbox. Being overmatched by left handed bats is also a deficiency not suited for going up against this lineup. Backed by a sub par bullpen should force the Phillies to get the lead with Eaton on the mound, something easier said than done.

Angels Yesterday reiterated how much the A’s rely on walks to get runs. Going up against a challenge pitchers is not suited for this lineup. Lackey has dominated the A’s throughout his career, and is quietly in the midst of his best season. Coming off a complete game shutout only needing 106 pitches should make Lackey primed for a good outing in this one. With five straight quality starts against the A’s, putting forth his best outings on the road, and improve peripherals last month, runs should be hard to come by for the A’s. Haren has quickly made the shift to being one of the most undervalued pitchers in the league, to one of the more overvalued. With a sudden jump in his well hit ratio, BABIP, and a decrease in his strike out rate in July, Haren has shown enough evidence he is no longer fooling batters like he did earlier in the year, and regression may be imminent. Although he has dominated the Angels this year, he does not particularly match up well against this lineup. Having struggled throughout his career against Figgins, Cabrera and Guerrero makes him vulnerable against the top end of the lineup, while being one of the easiest pitchers to steal against makes him vulnerable to the aggressiveness and speed the Angels display on the base paths. With an increased pitch per inning rate, Haren is no longer the same candidate of going deep into the bullpen, giving the Angels the decisive edge in the later innings. Mets Marquis has quietly taken a huge drop off in productivity the last couple of months, and has actually been one of the worst starters in baseball since the beginning of June, posting a mid 5 ERA and 1.60 Whip during that time frame. Always prone to walking a lot of hitters, Marquis command has witnessed a huge drop off. His struggles last year stemmed from mechanical issues that made his sinker ineffective, that directly increased his fly ball rate, home run rate, and made his high walk total much more dangerous without the ability to induce the double play. Marquis has resembled a lot of that pitcher, has his last months numbers show he has once again become a sinkerball pitcher with fly ball pitcher numbers. The Mets possess a patient lineup and power to magnify such problems. Glavine is no longer the pitcher he once was, but I like his chances tonight, as he is backed by a liberal home plate umpire and is up against an a lineups whose aggressiveness will work against them.

Today’s card appears to be a rare one, as I deem a lot of favorites undervalued. Mets Hernandez may be overachieving a bit, but I see no reason for him not to continue his solid pitching against an undisciplined Pirates lineup that lacks the patience at the plate needed to counter Hernandez’s style of pitching. His off speed pitches have been eating up right handed hitters, as they have hit just .153 against him all season, not boding well for a Pirates lineup likely to send seven right handers to the plate tonight. Showing no signs of slowing down late in the season throughout his career, including this one, and having past success against the Pirates and several of their hitters, and Hernandez appears to have a tailor made opportunity to put forth a solid outing against a tired Pirates coming off a double header and have been going through the motions for quite some time. Being backed by a top tier and well rested bullpen should allow the Mets to put a pitcher on the mound that should overmatch this anemic lineup. It has been a tale of two seasons for Snell. The first half, Snell flew under the radar, being one of the most dominant yet undervalued pitchers in baseball. After a couple months of dominance, his lines caught up with him. However, since July, Snell has become a liability on the mound, yet his lines have not fully adjusted to his drastic regression. Being a power pitcher weighing 180 makes Snell a liability to wear down late in seasons, especially this early in his career where his arm is not used to accumulating such a high inning count. He finished July and currently holds in August a six plus ERA. Location mistakes commensurate with fatigue and a lack of confidence have allowed teams to put forth a well hit rate at an alarming rate, and a BABIP of .400 during that time frame. Snell’s past struggles against the Mets is just another variable working against him in this spot. Brewers The Brewers have quickly become somewhat of a contrarian play after being a public darling during the first half of the season. Still being a tough team to beat at home, it is hard to pass them up at this price. The Cardinals appear to be making a late season surge that is fully incorporated into the market pricing, and still have an uphill battle having to face all around better teams like the Brewers. Although Wells is pitching better of late, he has always been a liability on the road during his road starts and against power lineups. His last poor outing came three weeks ago against this same Brewers lineup that managed 11 hits and five runs in just five innings of work. His only start against them in Milwaukee, he performed even worse. The Cardinals have been able to piece together a winning streak in August by playing the role of opportunist, facing anemic lineups in the Nats, Pirates, Padres and Dodgers, in which they have always matched up well against. This will not be the case tonight when they face a Brewers team that swept them last time they visited this park. No denying that Capuano is not the same pitcher he was in prior seasons. However, he is still managing to put forth his better outings at home, has increased his strike out rate, decreased his walk rate, while his BABIP has increased at a higher rate than his well hit ratio- all signs potentially pointing to a turnaround. Most of his past struggles against the Cardinals have come from one player, Pujols, which is a mismatch that can be avoided with his lack of protection. The Cardinals are still an inferior lineup against southpaws, and putting Capuano on the mound puts Duncan on the bench. Cubs No doubt the injuries to Ramirez and Soriano have put a damper on the Cubs (underachieving) lineup, but especially with a combined 6 for 35 against Reds starter Haranger, their absence is more than justly incorporated in today’s line. Harrang has always been a pitcher that lacks the same respect that other pitchers that have put up similar number than he has gotten. That said, after pitcher seven straight quality starts, it appears that his time has finally come, and his backers have sent the Cubs line down to where I deem them undervalued. One team that Harrang has yet to figure out is this Cubs team who have given him a five plus ERA two straight seasons. The Cubs have matched up better against power pitchers with Harrang all season, and have performed better against veteran pitchers they are familiar with like Harrang. Although Harrang gives the Reds their best chance of avoiding their bullpen, he has been known for early exits against the Cubs, which should give the Cubs a decisive advantage once both aces leave the game. Zambrano finally suffered a setback after being arguably the best pitcher in baseball for two months. Being a solid bounceback pitcher who has had success against this Reds lineup throughout his career, I like his chances of giving the Cubs a good chance of getting back into the win column. Just three starts ago, he dominated this same lineup, pitching seven shoutout innings and allowing 2 two hits. His improved sinker makes him a less likely candidate to allow the long ball, and should force a Reds lineup not built to manufacture runs to play that role. The Reds have struggled all year getting things going on the road. Zambrano’s downright dominance against right handed hitters, and past success against Dunn and Hattenberg leave the Reds little options. Padres Francis’s well documented winning streak has created value on the home team. Although he has pitched better of late, the main factor for his current run is run support, one of the most overrated variables in baseball handicapping. Two anemic offenses that have given Francis struggles throughout his career are the Padres and Giants, both whom have showed the ability to pick up his pitches well. During Francis’s hot streak, he has actually been getting hit hard, has been leaving the ball up, and his ground ball propensity has disappeared. Second half meltdowns are nothing new for Francis, who appears to be showing signs of yet another one. This does not bode well for the Rockies chances, as the Padres have the bullpen edge in the later innings of this game. Maddux has been streaky all season, and appears to be in top form, having put forth four straight quality starts. His ability to keep the ball in the park, coupled with the spacious confines curtails the Rockies biggest edge in this game, which is their power.

Dodgers The Dodgers have been dead money for quite some time, but I have no problem backing them when everyone else appears to have jumped ship. No lineup in baseball has struggled more than they have of late, but with Albers bouts of wildness and inability to pitch well on the road, should give the Dodgers exactly what they need- free passes that allows them to incorporate their speed into the outcome of games. Albers inconsistency has prevented him from living up to his potential so far, and his high pitch count per inning does not make him an ideal candidate to go past five. The Astros bullpen has struggled and underachieved all season, allowing the Dodgers to face some hittable pitchers throughout this game. Another value creator in this game is Tomko’s home struggles, which defy fundamental logic, as being a notorious flyball pitcher; he should be helped out by his home park. He has been dominant pitching here throughout his career, and has always had one of the highest disparities between home and away productivity. In another words, his home struggles lack sustainability. Tomko has actually pitched well since the all star break, as teams have not been able to make the same contact that they were prior to the break. Known to get better as the season progresses, and it appears more than just randomness for his improved success on the mound. With the Astros not being the same team on the road, coupled with his past success against key veteran hitters, and Tomko should be able to put forth another quality start. Blue Jays Holliday has always been one of the more overvalued pitchers in baseball, but his off-season this year has actually made him an intriguing bet in a few of his recent home outings. Holliday has been solid since the break, while his past struggles against the Angels lack sustainability, as only one of their hitters come into today’s game hitting over .300 against him. This is also a game in which home field advantage is magnified, as both teams are far better in their own yard. Being backed by a solid yet underrated bullpen prevents the automatically assumed advantage the Angels posses in the later innings. Saunders has pitched much worse than his ERA would indicate, and having allowed a home run in three straight games coupled with sub par pitching peripherals makes him prone to being overmatched against one of the most dangers home lineups against southpaws. Saunders has been more hittable in recent starts, while his “stuff” doesn’t appear to be fooling anybody. The Blue Jays last run starts tonight in this key series. Rangers This appears more of a letdown spot for Davies than a confidence booster after putting forth a dominant outing against as struggling Twins lineup last time out. Davies propensity to challenge hitters to often and his fly ball propensity makes him vulnerable against his Rangers lineup and in this park. Coming into today’s game with a career six plus road ERA and horrific peripherals, gives a Rangers lineup with several players fighting for jobs for next season an opportunity to make a statement. Millwood’s season has been a bust, but expect him to have this game circled since his late July when this Royals team embarrassed him by putting up 9 in less than three. Aside from that embarrassing start, Millwood has actually pitched well of late, putting forth seven quality starts in his last nine. His recent pitching performances makes him ideal for this park, as he has not allowed a home run in 52 straight innings. Getting to avenge his last start against the Royals while being able to face them after they had to play a night game on get away day, gives him one more advantage to make a statement. Marlins Willis’s fastball this season has been more of a batting practice pitch than one you see in a real game. Having said that, I feel his nightmare season has been incorporated into his recent lines, and you could get him at a decent price, as you get to go against a hot DBacks team who has been overachieving and not the same on the road. Even during this season, Willis still has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball against left handed hitters, which should put Tracy on the bench, turn around Hudson where he is less dangerous, and force one of the DBacks right handers who have not had success against him in the past to step up. The Dbacks have struggled against southpaws this season despite having almost all their hitters bat from the right side. Kim’s mechanics have regressed a bit of late while his season debut with the DBacks appeared to allow nerves to get the better end of him. Pitching against his former team makes him vulnerable to such yet again.

Cubs No surprise that there appears to be value on the Cubs, as Hills regression has made him become out of favor, while the Cardinals late playoff push appears to have put a premium on their asking price. Two of the main reasons for Hills regression has been his lack of control that has lead to an increase walk rate, and his inability to keep the ball in the park. Although these are not two weakness you want to back, they both should be helped out by the Cardinals lineups inability to draw the walk and the lack of power their lineup provides, especially against southpaws. Hills last starts numbers were inflated by Coors and one bad inning, while he has consistently put forth better numbers in his young career at home. While the Cardinals possess one of the hotter lineups in baseball, they continue to be one of the more anemic ones against left handed pitching, only possessing one hitter with more than three home runs against left handed pitching (Pujols with just six). Putting Hill on the mound also puts Duncan on the bench. The Cubs have a deep and solid bullpen that allows them to have leverage with handling Hills, and his being prone to the big inning. Looper just hasn’t adjusted to the starting role, and despite putting forth a solid outing last time out and a quality start last time against the Cubs, he is a liability on the mound here on out, as he has already accumulated an inning count 50% higher than any of his last 8 seasons. Looper has been one of the worst pitchers on the road, supporting a near seven ERA, while his post break ERA resides over six as well. Giants This is an interesting match up, as this game provides to southpaws in the midst of nightmare seasons, making this game a likely candidate to pricing inefficiencies. In my opinion, it appears that value is on the underdog and the veteran pitching slowly showing signs of getting things back on track. Zito rebounded well from his first inning struggles last time out, and followed that inning with five dominating ones. His mechanics have been getting somewhat better, resulting in more ground balls, less walks and a decrease in well hit balls. Although Zito got dominated last time out against the Marlins, his pitching style can make this young lineups aggressiveness work against them. Zito has always been one of those rare southpaws that has always been more effective against right handed hitters, which is a huge asset going against a lineup filled with right handed hitters dominating southpaws this season. The Marlins are one of the few teams playing worse at home. Zito is backed by a deeper and better rested bullpen. Although Olsen is coming off two quality starts in a row, his struggles have been more predicated on intangibles than fundamentals, making him a prospect of imploding any time out, therefore making him a dangerous favorite to bet on. Even during those two starts, there were times in which he did not look comfortable on the mound. Until Olsen can piece together a couple more solid outings, I will continue to assume his mind is away from the game, and will price accordingly. Mets There appears to be a lot of value taken off National lines in recent series, as blind faders of this team have backed off. There now actually appears to be more opportunities to go against them, as they simply lack the talent to put forth this kind of winning percentage over the course of the season. Chico has show sings of dead are in recent outings, as he currently resides in an inning count where he posted a six ERA in double A ball two years ago. He has walked at least three batters in six straight starts, while coming off an outing in which he walked six. This is not a deficiency you want going up against one of the more patient lineups in the league, and one of the more aggressive ones on the base paths. With a WHIP approaching two after the break, and an ERA over six, Chico doesn’t appear reading for a solid road lineup like the Mets in current form. Glavine has responded well to the dog days, putting forth four straight quality outings, including two road ones against quality lineups. Glavine now has a good shot to put forth five straight, as he is up against a young lineup that he has had success against two straight seasons. His control appears to be as good as it has all season, resulting in a decrease in free passes and not allowing a home run in 20 straight innings. Glavine’s fly ball tendencies makes him more of a liability on the road, but should be helped out by this park and the lack of power the Nationals lineup provides. The Nationals success this season has mainly been against sub .500 teams prone to overlooking them, while winning just 36 percent against winning teams. Indians Not many opportunities over the course of a season in which you see a blind fade like Jackson actually overvalued, but after putting forth three straight dominating outings, this appears to be the case. Jackson is still a pitcher that can implode any time out, and is most vulnerable against patient lineup unwilling to go out of the zone, and against lineups stacked from the left side. Facing a patient and dangerous lineup from the left side makes Jackson especially vulnerable in this start, while pitching at home where he has accumulated a career 6.5 ERA adds more fuel. The Indians ability to force high pitch counts on opposing starters forces the worst pen in baseball to have an influential role on the outcome of the game. The Indians recent woes at the plate appear to be fully factored into the line. Byrd has always been one of the more undervalued road pitchers in baseball, and this game appears to be no different. This year he has taken his H/A disparities to another level, allowing him to become one of the best road pitchers in baseball this season. This is also a bounce back spot for Byrd, a role he has had success pitching under during the last three years (10 for 15 QS rate in the bounce back role). Byrd’s style of pitching also matches well against the aggressiveness and youth the DRAys lineup provides. Although not backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, this is one of the few series in which the Indians possess the bullpen advantage.

Twins Not sure why the market place has not caught up to the comfort zone Silva has had at home throughout his career, but I will continue to back him until his home dominance is reflected into the line. Silva has put forth three straight quality outings, while his ground ball rate has been getting progressively better. The Rangers lineup is much less potent with their roster changes, posses regressing players no longer overachieving, and have been nowhere nearly as dangerous on the road. Silva’s past struggles against this team also lacks sustainability, as there is not that much past success in today’s lineup against Sivla. The Twins also have the big bullpen advantage, as injuries, regression and trades has made the Rangers biggest strength somewhat of a liability. Not a big fan of Gabbard, as I don’t see his early season success terribly sustainable, as he was accumulating impressive numbers with a bit of smoke and mirrors. His delivery is a bit hard to pick up, an embedded advantage that should continue to shrink as the league becomes more acquainted with him. His finesse style allowed aggressiveness at the plate to work in his favor, something in which this Twins lineup will not allow to happen, as they take what the pitcher gives them. Gabbard has been more hittable in recent outings, and is coming off a start in which he had to take an early exit due to a forearm injury that may play a role in today’s game. Blue Jays This is one home team in which you could still find value in betting even when having to lay a lot of chalk on. Burnett looked dominant in his first start off the disabled list, as he three hit the Royals, while he had a lot of movement on his pitches. This appears to be a good spot for him to put forth another dominant outing, as he faces a team that he has dominated since joining the AL. Burnett has always been considerable more effective in his home outings no matter the team he has pitched for, and has put forth dominant numbers in this park year to date. Backed by one of the more underrated pens in the league should make it hard for the Orioles to provide ideal run support for the liability they are sending on the mound. This is not an ideal spot for Olsen, whose control problems will sooner or later catch up with him at this level. He has allowed nearly a walk an inning during his three starts, as nerves have played a role on his pitching performance. Known to give up the long ball and facing one of the more potent lineups at home and against southpaws, this deficiency of his should be magnified in this outing. The Orioles don’t have the ideal depth in their pen to back this style of pitcher. The Blue Jays are making one final playoff push, and have been one of the better home teams in baseball once again this season.