Adding.
Diamondbacks @ Astros
Play: Astros -127
Intrinsic Value: -142
Consider Betting Price: -128
Comment:
Rodriguez has pitched well at home this year and has upside potential. He has put forth solid numbers against the Diamdonbacks in past years. The Diamdondbacks have struggled at the plate, and are not as potent on the road. They will be with Tracy today, a staple in the heart of their lineup. Rodriguez is backed by the better bullpen in this game. Davis is pitching at a level much worse than his numbers would indicate. His Whip is horrible, as he continues to struggle with a lack of control. The Astros should take advantage of this, as they showed good patience at the plate in last night’s blowout. Davis has never been as effective on the road, and has struggled against five of the Astros hitters that will be in today’s lineup.
0
Adding.
Diamondbacks @ Astros
Play: Astros -127
Intrinsic Value: -142
Consider Betting Price: -128
Comment:
Rodriguez has pitched well at home this year and has upside potential. He has put forth solid numbers against the Diamdonbacks in past years. The Diamdondbacks have struggled at the plate, and are not as potent on the road. They will be with Tracy today, a staple in the heart of their lineup. Rodriguez is backed by the better bullpen in this game. Davis is pitching at a level much worse than his numbers would indicate. His Whip is horrible, as he continues to struggle with a lack of control. The Astros should take advantage of this, as they showed good patience at the plate in last night’s blowout. Davis has never been as effective on the road, and has struggled against five of the Astros hitters that will be in today’s lineup.
It takes a real coward and horrible person to make his living hiding behind a computer and waiting for me to post my plays, taking them, and charging people their hard earned money for them. It was brought to my attention that this is exactly what Players of America has been doing for nearly a month now. You be the judge. If you have ever paid for this coward’s picks or know someone that did, please address the issue. A real man would give his clients their money back because of his thievery. Posted below are my plays and his plays on a given day. All the plays under his name that are in bold were on my card. Please note, he gives out his plays in the afternoon, while I post mine in the morning. This guy will no longer be making money off of me.
4/20
My Plays:
Bal
Stl
SD
SF
Players of America:
Bal
SD
SF
4/21
My Plays:
Atl
SF
White Sox
Bal
Milw
Phi
Sea
Players of America:
Milw
Bal
Phi
Sea
4/22
My Plays:
Atl
Phi
Cubs
Col
POA:
Sea
Cubs
Phi
Atl
4/23
My Plays:
Cubs
POA:
Cubs
4/24
My Plays
Col
LAD
Bos
TB
Cubs
Cin
Det
SD
POA:
Bos
Col
TB
Cin
SD
4/25
My Plays:
Fla
Cubs
Bal
Min
Sea
POA
Fla
Bal
Min
Sea
4/26
My Plays
Pit
LAD
Min
TB
SD
Bal
NYY
POA
NYY
SD
Pit
4/27
My Plays
Fla
White Sox
Pit
Det
Hou
Cubs
Tex
Sea
SD
POA
Pit
Det
Hou
Cubs
4/28
My Plays:
Fla
LAA
Cubs
Tor
Oak
Sea
SD
POA
Tor
Cubs
LAA
Sea
SD
4/29
My Plays:
Pit
White sox
Hou
Tor
Col
POA
SD
Ari
From April 20th to April 29th, Players of America made 32 side plays in baseball that he charged people for. 29 of those 32 plays were posted on my card the morning of him giving out his picks to his clients in the afternoon.
5/1
My Plays:
LAD
Pit
Oak
Cle
Sea
POA
Pit
Oak
Sea
LAD
5/2
My Plays:
Fla
Cubs
LAD
Atl
Cle
Hou
Min
POA
LAD
Cle
Min
Atl
Hou
5/3
My Plays
TB
POA
TB
5/4
My Plays:
Det
Bal
Atl
Pit
Min
NYM
SF
POA
Bal
Atl
Pit
Det
NYM
5/5
My Plays:
SD
Tex
SF
Bal
Pit
TB
POA:
SF
SD
Bal
5/6
My Plays
White Sox
POA
No plays
5/7
My Plays:
SD
Hou
Col
SF
POA
ATL
Cin
SF
5/8
My Plays:
Sea
Pit
Tor
Min
LAA
NYM
POA
Pit
Min
LAA
NYM
5/9
MY Plays:
Fla
Bal
Stl
NYM
Hou
Cle
POA
NYM
Fla
Bal
Hou
Cle
5/10
My Plays
Min
Cubs
Col
Cle
Bal
Tor
POA
Min
Cubs
Cle
Bal
5/11
My Plays
White Sox
Phi
Pit
Tor
POA
Fla
Pit
Phi
Tor
Milw
Ari
Det
KC
Cle
5/12
My Plays
White Sox
LAA
LAD
Bal
Hou
Stl
POA
Milw
LAD
Cle
Fla
HouChiwStl
NYY
LAA
Today he had the same plays as well. For the month of May he charged people for 51 side plays. 39 of those plays were on that card hours before he charged people for them.
0
It takes a real coward and horrible person to make his living hiding behind a computer and waiting for me to post my plays, taking them, and charging people their hard earned money for them. It was brought to my attention that this is exactly what Players of America has been doing for nearly a month now. You be the judge. If you have ever paid for this coward’s picks or know someone that did, please address the issue. A real man would give his clients their money back because of his thievery. Posted below are my plays and his plays on a given day. All the plays under his name that are in bold were on my card. Please note, he gives out his plays in the afternoon, while I post mine in the morning. This guy will no longer be making money off of me.
4/20
My Plays:
Bal
Stl
SD
SF
Players of America:
Bal
SD
SF
4/21
My Plays:
Atl
SF
White Sox
Bal
Milw
Phi
Sea
Players of America:
Milw
Bal
Phi
Sea
4/22
My Plays:
Atl
Phi
Cubs
Col
POA:
Sea
Cubs
Phi
Atl
4/23
My Plays:
Cubs
POA:
Cubs
4/24
My Plays
Col
LAD
Bos
TB
Cubs
Cin
Det
SD
POA:
Bos
Col
TB
Cin
SD
4/25
My Plays:
Fla
Cubs
Bal
Min
Sea
POA
Fla
Bal
Min
Sea
4/26
My Plays
Pit
LAD
Min
TB
SD
Bal
NYY
POA
NYY
SD
Pit
4/27
My Plays
Fla
White Sox
Pit
Det
Hou
Cubs
Tex
Sea
SD
POA
Pit
Det
Hou
Cubs
4/28
My Plays:
Fla
LAA
Cubs
Tor
Oak
Sea
SD
POA
Tor
Cubs
LAA
Sea
SD
4/29
My Plays:
Pit
White sox
Hou
Tor
Col
POA
SD
Ari
From April 20th to April 29th, Players of America made 32 side plays in baseball that he charged people for. 29 of those 32 plays were posted on my card the morning of him giving out his picks to his clients in the afternoon.
5/1
My Plays:
LAD
Pit
Oak
Cle
Sea
POA
Pit
Oak
Sea
LAD
5/2
My Plays:
Fla
Cubs
LAD
Atl
Cle
Hou
Min
POA
LAD
Cle
Min
Atl
Hou
5/3
My Plays
TB
POA
TB
5/4
My Plays:
Det
Bal
Atl
Pit
Min
NYM
SF
POA
Bal
Atl
Pit
Det
NYM
5/5
My Plays:
SD
Tex
SF
Bal
Pit
TB
POA:
SF
SD
Bal
5/6
My Plays
White Sox
POA
No plays
5/7
My Plays:
SD
Hou
Col
SF
POA
ATL
Cin
SF
5/8
My Plays:
Sea
Pit
Tor
Min
LAA
NYM
POA
Pit
Min
LAA
NYM
5/9
MY Plays:
Fla
Bal
Stl
NYM
Hou
Cle
POA
NYM
Fla
Bal
Hou
Cle
5/10
My Plays
Min
Cubs
Col
Cle
Bal
Tor
POA
Min
Cubs
Cle
Bal
5/11
My Plays
White Sox
Phi
Pit
Tor
POA
Fla
Pit
Phi
Tor
Milw
Ari
Det
KC
Cle
5/12
My Plays
White Sox
LAA
LAD
Bal
Hou
Stl
POA
Milw
LAD
Cle
Fla
HouChiwStl
NYY
LAA
Today he had the same plays as well. For the month of May he charged people for 51 side plays. 39 of those plays were on that card hours before he charged people for them.
I was trying to go out quietly, and all this nonsense is getting really draining. However, I will not allow my integrity or intentions to be attacked. This holds especially true when my integrity is being attacked by this same lowlife who has tried to downgrade me to his level for two years now. He has made numerous falls claims about me for years, including the ones made in this post (that I have been a break even handicapper and I am the owner of POA). They are simply not true. It is posters like this guy that makes it hard for any potential future return, and sure doesn’t make me miss all this internet bullshit (if I can just leave in peace). Can this just end?
Regarding Pitchblack and his history:
This “man” who hides behind this computer screen name lives for “handicapping controversy”. He can not accept there are people out there that can do what he has never been able to accomplish. He finds people he feels are such, and feels the need to degrade them. For this, he has been banned at every forum he has been to. He gives the same old speech that he makes “50 units” every year in every sport, yet is a perennial loser beyond the flip of a coin. He has followed me to every forum just to make up lies about me. Since joining here, he has already accused me of being two touts (he has accused me of being nearly 50 different people now). How can I now be the owner of POA, when I am Joe Gavvazi (the other tout who has been stealing my picks)? Other accusations have been downright ridiculous, comical, and crude. I can only hope someday, he could move above the current state he is as a person and realize how shameful he has been acting.
Regarding Players of America:
I am not the owner of Players of America, and can not say enough bad things about them. The only thing I would recommend regarding them is not to give them a single penny. They sent me an email which included compensation offers for stealing my work. I have not replied, nor tend to do so. Why? Simply put, I do not believe the explanation they gave behind their thievery (and am disappointed that a lot here did). I think it is a one man operation pretending to be a 3 team partnership, and he used one of his false characters as a scapegoat. I feel the guy who was using my plays to charge clients, is the same person that clients are still having to pay for his picks (I can be wrong).
That said, this was a much better excuse than the tout Joe Gavazzi used. Another unethical tout who was doing the same thing.
I have said from day one, I don’t believe in charging nor do I recommend people paying for picks. This holds especially true to the touts mentioned above. There is too much good information given out for free.
This “internet conspiracy” theories are way out of hand. This thread is the epitome of me choosing to step away from the forum scene. I can only hope Pitchblack doesn’t turn a great site like EOG into the playground he has turned many others into. This site is too good for such, and deserves better. I can only hope Mods agree, as it is too draining and time consuming to have to continue to defend myself for the lies that are potentially about to come from him.
0
I was trying to go out quietly, and all this nonsense is getting really draining. However, I will not allow my integrity or intentions to be attacked. This holds especially true when my integrity is being attacked by this same lowlife who has tried to downgrade me to his level for two years now. He has made numerous falls claims about me for years, including the ones made in this post (that I have been a break even handicapper and I am the owner of POA). They are simply not true. It is posters like this guy that makes it hard for any potential future return, and sure doesn’t make me miss all this internet bullshit (if I can just leave in peace). Can this just end?
Regarding Pitchblack and his history:
This “man” who hides behind this computer screen name lives for “handicapping controversy”. He can not accept there are people out there that can do what he has never been able to accomplish. He finds people he feels are such, and feels the need to degrade them. For this, he has been banned at every forum he has been to. He gives the same old speech that he makes “50 units” every year in every sport, yet is a perennial loser beyond the flip of a coin. He has followed me to every forum just to make up lies about me. Since joining here, he has already accused me of being two touts (he has accused me of being nearly 50 different people now). How can I now be the owner of POA, when I am Joe Gavvazi (the other tout who has been stealing my picks)? Other accusations have been downright ridiculous, comical, and crude. I can only hope someday, he could move above the current state he is as a person and realize how shameful he has been acting.
Regarding Players of America:
I am not the owner of Players of America, and can not say enough bad things about them. The only thing I would recommend regarding them is not to give them a single penny. They sent me an email which included compensation offers for stealing my work. I have not replied, nor tend to do so. Why? Simply put, I do not believe the explanation they gave behind their thievery (and am disappointed that a lot here did). I think it is a one man operation pretending to be a 3 team partnership, and he used one of his false characters as a scapegoat. I feel the guy who was using my plays to charge clients, is the same person that clients are still having to pay for his picks (I can be wrong).
That said, this was a much better excuse than the tout Joe Gavazzi used. Another unethical tout who was doing the same thing.
I have said from day one, I don’t believe in charging nor do I recommend people paying for picks. This holds especially true to the touts mentioned above. There is too much good information given out for free.
This “internet conspiracy” theories are way out of hand. This thread is the epitome of me choosing to step away from the forum scene. I can only hope Pitchblack doesn’t turn a great site like EOG into the playground he has turned many others into. This site is too good for such, and deserves better. I can only hope Mods agree, as it is too draining and time consuming to have to continue to defend myself for the lies that are potentially about to come from him.
I was trying to go out quietly, and all this nonsense is getting really draining. However, I will not allow my integrity or intentions to be attacked. This holds especially true when my integrity is being attacked by this same lowlife who has tried to downgrade me to his level for two years now. He has made numerous falls claims about me for years, including the ones made in this post (that I have been a break even handicapper and I am the owner of POA). They are simply not true. It is posters like this guy that makes it hard for any potential future return, and sure doesn’t make me miss all this internet bullshit (if I can just leave in peace). Can this just end?
Regarding Pitchblack and his history:
This “man” who hides behind this computer screen name lives for “handicapping controversy”. He can not accept there are people out there that can do what he has never been able to accomplish. He finds people he feels are such, and feels the need to degrade them. For this, he has been banned at every forum he has been to. He gives the same old speech that he makes “50 units” every year in every sport, yet is a perennial loser beyond the flip of a coin. He has followed me to every forum just to make up lies about me. Since joining here, he has already accused me of being two touts (he has accused me of being nearly 50 different people now). How can I now be the owner of POA, when I am Joe Gavvazi (the other tout who has been stealing my picks)? Other accusations have been downright ridiculous, comical, and crude. I can only hope someday, he could move above the current state he is as a person and realize how shameful he has been acting.
Regarding Players of America:
I am not the owner of Players of America, and can not say enough bad things about them. The only thing I would recommend regarding them is not to give them a single penny. They sent me an email which included compensation offers for stealing my work. I have not replied, nor tend to do so. Why? Simply put, I do not believe the explanation they gave behind their thievery (and am disappointed that a lot here did). I think it is a one man operation pretending to be a 3 team partnership, and he used one of his false characters as a scapegoat. I feel the guy who was using my plays to charge clients, is the same person that clients are still having to pay for his picks (I can be wrong).
That said, this was a much better excuse than the tout Joe Gavazzi used. Another unethical tout who was doing the same thing.
I have said from day one, I don’t believe in charging nor do I recommend people paying for picks. This holds especially true to the touts mentioned above. There is too much good information given out for free.
This “internet conspiracy” theories are way out of hand. This thread is the epitome of me choosing to step away from the forum scene. I can only hope Pitchblack doesn’t turn a great site like EOG into the playground he has turned many others into. This site is too good for such, and deserves better. I can only hope Mods agree, as it is too draining and time consuming to have to continue to defend myself for the lies that are potentially about to come from him. I guess it is true. No good deed goes unpunished.
0
I was trying to go out quietly, and all this nonsense is getting really draining. However, I will not allow my integrity or intentions to be attacked. This holds especially true when my integrity is being attacked by this same lowlife who has tried to downgrade me to his level for two years now. He has made numerous falls claims about me for years, including the ones made in this post (that I have been a break even handicapper and I am the owner of POA). They are simply not true. It is posters like this guy that makes it hard for any potential future return, and sure doesn’t make me miss all this internet bullshit (if I can just leave in peace). Can this just end?
Regarding Pitchblack and his history:
This “man” who hides behind this computer screen name lives for “handicapping controversy”. He can not accept there are people out there that can do what he has never been able to accomplish. He finds people he feels are such, and feels the need to degrade them. For this, he has been banned at every forum he has been to. He gives the same old speech that he makes “50 units” every year in every sport, yet is a perennial loser beyond the flip of a coin. He has followed me to every forum just to make up lies about me. Since joining here, he has already accused me of being two touts (he has accused me of being nearly 50 different people now). How can I now be the owner of POA, when I am Joe Gavvazi (the other tout who has been stealing my picks)? Other accusations have been downright ridiculous, comical, and crude. I can only hope someday, he could move above the current state he is as a person and realize how shameful he has been acting.
Regarding Players of America:
I am not the owner of Players of America, and can not say enough bad things about them. The only thing I would recommend regarding them is not to give them a single penny. They sent me an email which included compensation offers for stealing my work. I have not replied, nor tend to do so. Why? Simply put, I do not believe the explanation they gave behind their thievery (and am disappointed that a lot here did). I think it is a one man operation pretending to be a 3 team partnership, and he used one of his false characters as a scapegoat. I feel the guy who was using my plays to charge clients, is the same person that clients are still having to pay for his picks (I can be wrong).
That said, this was a much better excuse than the tout Joe Gavazzi used. Another unethical tout who was doing the same thing.
I have said from day one, I don’t believe in charging nor do I recommend people paying for picks. This holds especially true to the touts mentioned above. There is too much good information given out for free.
This “internet conspiracy” theories are way out of hand. This thread is the epitome of me choosing to step away from the forum scene. I can only hope Pitchblack doesn’t turn a great site like EOG into the playground he has turned many others into. This site is too good for such, and deserves better. I can only hope Mods agree, as it is too draining and time consuming to have to continue to defend myself for the lies that are potentially about to come from him. I guess it is true. No good deed goes unpunished.
There probably is not a day that goes by on internet handicapping forums in which you see bright minds and recreational bettors alike claiming being on “hot streaks” and thinking that they hold substance. Yes, handicappers are humans, much like the players we try to handicap, thus making us subject to variables that affect the quality of our handicapping in the short term. However, that being said, digging deeper into the mathematical aspects of what’s truly behind a hot streak, and one will realize these short term returns that are above our historical means are rather a product of randomness, noise, and good fortunes.
In this example, I would like to use a handicapper that possesses “sharp” like tendencies, as “hot streaks” hold even less substance for the recreational bettors that do not possess an accurate quantitative valuation model to go by. Sharp bettors realize that in reality, they are not betting on teams, rather prices. Therefore, they derive (via power ratings) a valuation model that quantifies their worth of a particular team, and finds disparities between their price and the market price. A positve EV handicapper’s model will find that the results from disparities between “intrinsic” and market prices will lie closer to the perceived value. Therefore, each bet they make will have an “expected positive ROI”, and the more accurate their valuation model is, the closer the actual ROI is to the “expected” ROI in the long run.
For example (simple example). Suppose that there is a quality valuation model that finds 500 games in which derives an intrinsic value of -120 when the market price is -100. If the valuation model generated substance, the results would have produced 273 winners and 227 losers, converting an ROI of 9.2%. Supposing that the handicapper and his (her) model holds long term substance and positive EV, we can diagnose what is truly behind a short term hot streak. Suppose this handicapper goes on a two week hot streak in which he goes on a 30 and 10 run. Is this handicapper hot? Being that his short term ROI of 75% is much larger than his expected 9.2%, he must be “hot” and seeing the sport much easier, right? He must be a good handicapper to follow, at least until his hot streak subsides. Absolutely not. If his valuation model is still generating expected ROI’s of 9%, his excess return is merely noise, or else, it simply defies his models accuracy. The longer his hot streak lasts and the longer his excess ROI is above his expected ROI, the more concerns he should have to the accuracy of his model.
Yes, handicappers are human and the quality of our handicapping changes in the short term. What does this mean exactly? All it means is that if the quality of our handicapping improves in the short term, then the accuracy of the intrinsic value of our lines will improve- not the expected short term returns, as that is a product of other variables as well(the short term market pricing efficiency by linesmakers and simple randomness). So even if the human variables behind our handicapping has a short term structural change effect on the quality of handicapping, the results will more than likely produce a decrease in the standard deviations of our returns due to an increase in model accuracy, not necessarily improved short term results. Simply put, the only reason for an increase in short term returns holding substance for a handicapper is a product of a decrease in market effeciency. What does this mean? This means that the only short term increase in a handicappers ROI that holds substance is a product of an increase of expected ROI due to an increase in the disparity between the intrinsic value and market price.
So yes, hot streaks are nice to have once in a while, as it does improve the size of our bankroll. But the longer they last, the more concerning they should be for an astute handicapper, as a short term ROI of 20% derived from a valuation model that produced an expected ROI of 10% makes the short term accuracy of the model worth as much as if it produced a 0% ROI. So next time you see a handicapper or a tout claiming his hot streak should be followed, please think twice.
0
There probably is not a day that goes by on internet handicapping forums in which you see bright minds and recreational bettors alike claiming being on “hot streaks” and thinking that they hold substance. Yes, handicappers are humans, much like the players we try to handicap, thus making us subject to variables that affect the quality of our handicapping in the short term. However, that being said, digging deeper into the mathematical aspects of what’s truly behind a hot streak, and one will realize these short term returns that are above our historical means are rather a product of randomness, noise, and good fortunes.
In this example, I would like to use a handicapper that possesses “sharp” like tendencies, as “hot streaks” hold even less substance for the recreational bettors that do not possess an accurate quantitative valuation model to go by. Sharp bettors realize that in reality, they are not betting on teams, rather prices. Therefore, they derive (via power ratings) a valuation model that quantifies their worth of a particular team, and finds disparities between their price and the market price. A positve EV handicapper’s model will find that the results from disparities between “intrinsic” and market prices will lie closer to the perceived value. Therefore, each bet they make will have an “expected positive ROI”, and the more accurate their valuation model is, the closer the actual ROI is to the “expected” ROI in the long run.
For example (simple example). Suppose that there is a quality valuation model that finds 500 games in which derives an intrinsic value of -120 when the market price is -100. If the valuation model generated substance, the results would have produced 273 winners and 227 losers, converting an ROI of 9.2%. Supposing that the handicapper and his (her) model holds long term substance and positive EV, we can diagnose what is truly behind a short term hot streak. Suppose this handicapper goes on a two week hot streak in which he goes on a 30 and 10 run. Is this handicapper hot? Being that his short term ROI of 75% is much larger than his expected 9.2%, he must be “hot” and seeing the sport much easier, right? He must be a good handicapper to follow, at least until his hot streak subsides. Absolutely not. If his valuation model is still generating expected ROI’s of 9%, his excess return is merely noise, or else, it simply defies his models accuracy. The longer his hot streak lasts and the longer his excess ROI is above his expected ROI, the more concerns he should have to the accuracy of his model.
Yes, handicappers are human and the quality of our handicapping changes in the short term. What does this mean exactly? All it means is that if the quality of our handicapping improves in the short term, then the accuracy of the intrinsic value of our lines will improve- not the expected short term returns, as that is a product of other variables as well(the short term market pricing efficiency by linesmakers and simple randomness). So even if the human variables behind our handicapping has a short term structural change effect on the quality of handicapping, the results will more than likely produce a decrease in the standard deviations of our returns due to an increase in model accuracy, not necessarily improved short term results. Simply put, the only reason for an increase in short term returns holding substance for a handicapper is a product of a decrease in market effeciency. What does this mean? This means that the only short term increase in a handicappers ROI that holds substance is a product of an increase of expected ROI due to an increase in the disparity between the intrinsic value and market price.
So yes, hot streaks are nice to have once in a while, as it does improve the size of our bankroll. But the longer they last, the more concerning they should be for an astute handicapper, as a short term ROI of 20% derived from a valuation model that produced an expected ROI of 10% makes the short term accuracy of the model worth as much as if it produced a 0% ROI. So next time you see a handicapper or a tout claiming his hot streak should be followed, please think twice.
Thanks fellas.
In response to the couple of teams mentioned above.
The Nationals are an interesting team, because you know linesmakers are automatically adding from 10 to 20 cents to each on of their lines in anticipation of an inelastic public demand to fade this team on a daily basis. That means that the Nats will more than likely have to underachieve to lose money, something that will be hard for them to do with such a low expectation sharps and public bettors alike have on them. That said, I don’t see them producing a higher ROI than they are right now, which means they should make another 6 units the rest of the way. All their profit so far has occurred when they have come in the +200 range, which is something that will not happen as frequently once the public comes to realize that there it is hard to profit betting against their line. Their Deltas show a bit of an overachievement year to date. No one is really underachieving much, while some of their young pitchers are producing better numbers than their Sabermetrics forecast going forward. Expect this young team to hit a road block the last six weeks of the season, as there are not many people on their roster accustomed to playing so many games. The bottom line is that they make for a better bet than a fade, but there should be more profitable teams out there.
As far as the Angels go, I see them more as a fade than a value team the next 100 games. This team is carrying a high Delta 2 and 3, which means that they have been helped out by a soft schedule and good luck. They have been helped out by playing against a soft division with two underachieving teams, and playing the Mariners predominantly at the right times. Expect the Rangers and A’s to be a tougher challenge for them the rest of the way, making their 15-7 division record unsustainable. They have solid young hitters, but hitters that should break down late in the season. Their veteran players have been playing to form, if not overachieving a bit so far this season. A possible slowdown from them as well may occur. Their starting pitchers and bullpen is elite, but Lackey and Escobar have been pitching at a level that should be hard to keep up. They have been an integral part of the teams early season success, as team is 23-17 with other pitchers decisions. They have been coming with to rich of a price tag to allow them to continue with a positive ROI the rest of the way in my opinion.
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Thanks fellas.
In response to the couple of teams mentioned above.
The Nationals are an interesting team, because you know linesmakers are automatically adding from 10 to 20 cents to each on of their lines in anticipation of an inelastic public demand to fade this team on a daily basis. That means that the Nats will more than likely have to underachieve to lose money, something that will be hard for them to do with such a low expectation sharps and public bettors alike have on them. That said, I don’t see them producing a higher ROI than they are right now, which means they should make another 6 units the rest of the way. All their profit so far has occurred when they have come in the +200 range, which is something that will not happen as frequently once the public comes to realize that there it is hard to profit betting against their line. Their Deltas show a bit of an overachievement year to date. No one is really underachieving much, while some of their young pitchers are producing better numbers than their Sabermetrics forecast going forward. Expect this young team to hit a road block the last six weeks of the season, as there are not many people on their roster accustomed to playing so many games. The bottom line is that they make for a better bet than a fade, but there should be more profitable teams out there.
As far as the Angels go, I see them more as a fade than a value team the next 100 games. This team is carrying a high Delta 2 and 3, which means that they have been helped out by a soft schedule and good luck. They have been helped out by playing against a soft division with two underachieving teams, and playing the Mariners predominantly at the right times. Expect the Rangers and A’s to be a tougher challenge for them the rest of the way, making their 15-7 division record unsustainable. They have solid young hitters, but hitters that should break down late in the season. Their veteran players have been playing to form, if not overachieving a bit so far this season. A possible slowdown from them as well may occur. Their starting pitchers and bullpen is elite, but Lackey and Escobar have been pitching at a level that should be hard to keep up. They have been an integral part of the teams early season success, as team is 23-17 with other pitchers decisions. They have been coming with to rich of a price tag to allow them to continue with a positive ROI the rest of the way in my opinion.
Here is a list of three pitchers that should make for compelling fades going forward.
Brad Penny
Units: +8.26
Comment:
Penny has been the most profitable pitcher in the National League year to date. He has was seven of his eight decisions, while his team has won 11 of the 13 games in which he started. His current ERA is more than one and a half runs below his career average, while he has allowed a home run in just one game all year. Many claim that Penny developing a third pitch has allowed for a structural change in his pitching, thus allowing a break out year. With the recent lines books have put in their games and favorable line movement backing him, it is quite apparent the public believes Penny has legitimately changed for the better. However, I am not buying it. This is the same pitcher the produce a 2.90 ERA prior to last years all star break, and a low three ERA prior to the 2004 and 2005 all star break, and then to a nose dive in the second half of the season. His strikeout rate this year is in line with career par, while his control and walk rate is right in line as well. His “stuff” (A rough indicator of the pitcher's overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0} is actually below the level in which it was this time last year. Basically, his fast start is predominantly a product of always starting off seasons well and good luck. His Delta-H and Delta-R are both negative for the first time in five years, which shows favorable luck with balls put in play, and being backed by better than average defense. His BABIP has increased four straight seasons, so taking a sudden fall this year may be more of a short term trend. Penny has yet to pitch against a Padres team that has owned him throughout his career, or pitching in Coors Field. He has pitched six out of division national league games, three of them against either the Pirates or Nationals. Penny has always been a sub par day game pitcher, but has been fortunate to pitching in just one day game in thirteen starts this season. His .200 OBA with runners in scoring position is predominantly a byproduct of facing teams that lack clutch hitting, as he has never been terribly effective out of the stretch.
Simply put, Penny has been accustomed to fast starts, but slowdowns have always been followed. He lacks the ideal lineup to make up for his potential regression, forcing any type of slowdown vulnerable to a series of losses. With the respect both books and linesmakers alike have given him, Penny is primed for a negative ROI once his good luck, good defense, and favorable scheduling normalize.
Curt Schilling
Units: +5.60
Schilling has two things working against him going forward. Not only is he one of the most popular pitchers that the public loves to back, but he pitches for a team that is being backed by the public more than any other team in baseball, making an inflated price tag on his starts a sure thing. So far he has been able to get buy with such a pricing disadvantage, as he has been backed by some of the best run support in the league and has pitched better than he has in years. However, one has to doubt both favorable variables will last throughout the season. Schilling’s strike out rate, walk rate, and WHIP are actually worse than last year, where he carried over a .50 higher ERA. Last year, Schilling started the season actually better than this year, yet to a nose dive in the second half, as he has consistently shown signs of wearing down late in seasons as he ages. Opponents hit over .300 against him during the second half of last season. Schilling’s “stuff” has progressively gone down hill since 2000, so expecting him to sustain career norm numbers may not be the best estimation. His negative 7 Delta-R shows he has been a good luck pitcher year to date. 36% of his innings pitched this year are considered to be against teams that have an above average line, a low percentage for a pitcher pitching in the AL East. In those innings, Schilling has produced a pedestrian 4.45 ERA. With an average lay price of -166 in games other than the Yankees, Schillings team will have to win more than 62% of the time just to break even, a hard feat to accomplish once his luck wears off, and his second half regression comes into play.
Danny Haren
With an average lay price of -155 in his last nine games while being backed by arguably the worst lineup in baseball, it is safe to say the books and the public alike consider Haren one of the best pitchers in the league. His numbers this year should leave no doubt that he is a top tier pitcher. But that is not to say, his number will regress at a faster rate than his market price, making him a prime target of a negative ROI going forward. His 1.58 ERA and .86 WHIP are mind boggling, but his PECOTA intrinsic ERA of 4.09 and WHIP of 1.28 are signs he is pitching well over his head. His negative Delta-H has increased at a faster rate than his “stuff” has increased, evidence that his hot start is more of a product of luck than skill. Six of his 14 starts have been against the Giants, Devil Rays and Royals, making soft scheduling a factor as well. Last year, Haren struggled more against the Tigers, Indians, and Blue Jays more than any other team in the league, and has yet to face any of these teams year to date. Haren’s run support (which is not a factor for his high ROI this year) has been 50% higher than the A’s mean run support. Haren started the season very solid last year as well, but was actually one of the biggest disappointments in baseball the second half of last year, accumulating a near five ERA. With the high price he now carries coupled with a lack of expect run support going forward, Haren has little margin of error, which past history shows that is not enough error to work with.
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Here is a list of three pitchers that should make for compelling fades going forward.
Brad Penny
Units: +8.26
Comment:
Penny has been the most profitable pitcher in the National League year to date. He has was seven of his eight decisions, while his team has won 11 of the 13 games in which he started. His current ERA is more than one and a half runs below his career average, while he has allowed a home run in just one game all year. Many claim that Penny developing a third pitch has allowed for a structural change in his pitching, thus allowing a break out year. With the recent lines books have put in their games and favorable line movement backing him, it is quite apparent the public believes Penny has legitimately changed for the better. However, I am not buying it. This is the same pitcher the produce a 2.90 ERA prior to last years all star break, and a low three ERA prior to the 2004 and 2005 all star break, and then to a nose dive in the second half of the season. His strikeout rate this year is in line with career par, while his control and walk rate is right in line as well. His “stuff” (A rough indicator of the pitcher's overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0} is actually below the level in which it was this time last year. Basically, his fast start is predominantly a product of always starting off seasons well and good luck. His Delta-H and Delta-R are both negative for the first time in five years, which shows favorable luck with balls put in play, and being backed by better than average defense. His BABIP has increased four straight seasons, so taking a sudden fall this year may be more of a short term trend. Penny has yet to pitch against a Padres team that has owned him throughout his career, or pitching in Coors Field. He has pitched six out of division national league games, three of them against either the Pirates or Nationals. Penny has always been a sub par day game pitcher, but has been fortunate to pitching in just one day game in thirteen starts this season. His .200 OBA with runners in scoring position is predominantly a byproduct of facing teams that lack clutch hitting, as he has never been terribly effective out of the stretch.
Simply put, Penny has been accustomed to fast starts, but slowdowns have always been followed. He lacks the ideal lineup to make up for his potential regression, forcing any type of slowdown vulnerable to a series of losses. With the respect both books and linesmakers alike have given him, Penny is primed for a negative ROI once his good luck, good defense, and favorable scheduling normalize.
Curt Schilling
Units: +5.60
Schilling has two things working against him going forward. Not only is he one of the most popular pitchers that the public loves to back, but he pitches for a team that is being backed by the public more than any other team in baseball, making an inflated price tag on his starts a sure thing. So far he has been able to get buy with such a pricing disadvantage, as he has been backed by some of the best run support in the league and has pitched better than he has in years. However, one has to doubt both favorable variables will last throughout the season. Schilling’s strike out rate, walk rate, and WHIP are actually worse than last year, where he carried over a .50 higher ERA. Last year, Schilling started the season actually better than this year, yet to a nose dive in the second half, as he has consistently shown signs of wearing down late in seasons as he ages. Opponents hit over .300 against him during the second half of last season. Schilling’s “stuff” has progressively gone down hill since 2000, so expecting him to sustain career norm numbers may not be the best estimation. His negative 7 Delta-R shows he has been a good luck pitcher year to date. 36% of his innings pitched this year are considered to be against teams that have an above average line, a low percentage for a pitcher pitching in the AL East. In those innings, Schilling has produced a pedestrian 4.45 ERA. With an average lay price of -166 in games other than the Yankees, Schillings team will have to win more than 62% of the time just to break even, a hard feat to accomplish once his luck wears off, and his second half regression comes into play.
Danny Haren
With an average lay price of -155 in his last nine games while being backed by arguably the worst lineup in baseball, it is safe to say the books and the public alike consider Haren one of the best pitchers in the league. His numbers this year should leave no doubt that he is a top tier pitcher. But that is not to say, his number will regress at a faster rate than his market price, making him a prime target of a negative ROI going forward. His 1.58 ERA and .86 WHIP are mind boggling, but his PECOTA intrinsic ERA of 4.09 and WHIP of 1.28 are signs he is pitching well over his head. His negative Delta-H has increased at a faster rate than his “stuff” has increased, evidence that his hot start is more of a product of luck than skill. Six of his 14 starts have been against the Giants, Devil Rays and Royals, making soft scheduling a factor as well. Last year, Haren struggled more against the Tigers, Indians, and Blue Jays more than any other team in the league, and has yet to face any of these teams year to date. Haren’s run support (which is not a factor for his high ROI this year) has been 50% higher than the A’s mean run support. Haren started the season very solid last year as well, but was actually one of the biggest disappointments in baseball the second half of last year, accumulating a near five ERA. With the high price he now carries coupled with a lack of expect run support going forward, Haren has little margin of error, which past history shows that is not enough error to work with.
First, let me say that ESPN ( the bible for squares) is blowing Santana’s “woes” way out of proportion, as almost all his Sabermetric indicators this year are right in line with past years, showing that he is still as dominant as any other pitcher in the league. Having said that, I have always thought he is a tad overrated from a general recognition standpoint, and probably consistently the most overvalued pitcher in baseball from a handicapping standpoint. The fact ESPN thinks he is a much less effective pitcher is based on his surface numbers such as ERA and WHIP being down, and they are automatically assuming that he is not as effective compared to prior years. In actuality he is, but his Deltas have normalized this year, while the last couple of years, they were one of the highest in the league, showing that he was a very lucky pitcher. The thing that makes Santana a compelling fade going forward is the fact that he doesn’t get ideal run support that you would like when laying such a rich price. You could get your money’s worth with one of his better pitching performances, and still lose due to his lack of run support. Not only is he backed by a poor lineup who has only managed more than three runs in 30% of his starts this year, but he also has a case of “aceitis” where his lineup actually tries too hard to score when he is on the mound, a variable that is counterproductive. Expect him to put forth very similar numbers the rest of the way out, while his negative ROI should decrease a bit once some of his public backers back off for the fear of lack of profit potential.
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First, let me say that ESPN ( the bible for squares) is blowing Santana’s “woes” way out of proportion, as almost all his Sabermetric indicators this year are right in line with past years, showing that he is still as dominant as any other pitcher in the league. Having said that, I have always thought he is a tad overrated from a general recognition standpoint, and probably consistently the most overvalued pitcher in baseball from a handicapping standpoint. The fact ESPN thinks he is a much less effective pitcher is based on his surface numbers such as ERA and WHIP being down, and they are automatically assuming that he is not as effective compared to prior years. In actuality he is, but his Deltas have normalized this year, while the last couple of years, they were one of the highest in the league, showing that he was a very lucky pitcher. The thing that makes Santana a compelling fade going forward is the fact that he doesn’t get ideal run support that you would like when laying such a rich price. You could get your money’s worth with one of his better pitching performances, and still lose due to his lack of run support. Not only is he backed by a poor lineup who has only managed more than three runs in 30% of his starts this year, but he also has a case of “aceitis” where his lineup actually tries too hard to score when he is on the mound, a variable that is counterproductive. Expect him to put forth very similar numbers the rest of the way out, while his negative ROI should decrease a bit once some of his public backers back off for the fear of lack of profit potential.
I am a firm believer that hot and cold streaks are overrated (especially hot streaks). I made a post in the baseball section about a month ago mathematically debunking the theory that hot streaks hold substance, but Covers decided to move it out of the baseball section.
So for managing your cold streak, I would not change a thing before dissecting the derivation of the cold streak. More times than not, a cold streak is merely a product of randomness, as you more than likely know just as much about handicapping and baseball now as you did prior to your slump.
Interleauge has often times been the product of slumps for many sharps, as this play often times deviates from fundamental form, and actually makes fundamental handicapping counterproductive. If you don’t feel you have a good grasp on interleaugue, abandon it entirely, as there are a lot of solid cappers that do such.
Regression analytics is the use of regression tools to spot temporary noise that may lead to mis-pricing. Whether it is used on a micro level by incorporating sabermetrics and other derivative statistics on individual players that can help one find pitchers that are generating numbers off their mean because of randomness or luck, or whether it is on a macro level in finding teams overachieving or underachieving based on regression tools and matrix statistics, regression analytics help a handicapper spot market mispricings.
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I am a firm believer that hot and cold streaks are overrated (especially hot streaks). I made a post in the baseball section about a month ago mathematically debunking the theory that hot streaks hold substance, but Covers decided to move it out of the baseball section.
So for managing your cold streak, I would not change a thing before dissecting the derivation of the cold streak. More times than not, a cold streak is merely a product of randomness, as you more than likely know just as much about handicapping and baseball now as you did prior to your slump.
Interleauge has often times been the product of slumps for many sharps, as this play often times deviates from fundamental form, and actually makes fundamental handicapping counterproductive. If you don’t feel you have a good grasp on interleaugue, abandon it entirely, as there are a lot of solid cappers that do such.
Regression analytics is the use of regression tools to spot temporary noise that may lead to mis-pricing. Whether it is used on a micro level by incorporating sabermetrics and other derivative statistics on individual players that can help one find pitchers that are generating numbers off their mean because of randomness or luck, or whether it is on a macro level in finding teams overachieving or underachieving based on regression tools and matrix statistics, regression analytics help a handicapper spot market mispricings.
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Chicago Cubs Intrinsic Value: -114
Chicago Cubs Consider Betting Price: +100
Chicago White Sox Intrinsic Value: +114
Chicago White Sox Consider Betting Price: +132
Comment:
With the current line, it may appear that the public is finally starting to jump off the Rich Hill bandwagon after his team has lost seven of his last 8 starts. Although in half those starts, he produced quality ones, there is no denying that there has been a structural change in his current pitching form, and he is simply not fooling the hitter like he was earlier in the season. Rich Hill made a living in the minors (highest k/9 ratio) with his dominant curveball, an out pitch which generated a .192 OBA during his first six starts. That said, his curveball hast not been nearly effective in recent outings, and has been a pitch that has allowed three home runs in his last three outings. Hill is a notorious flyball pitcher that can not get away with location mistakes are a high well hit ratio, two variables that have been occurring of late. This holds especially true when playing in the park in which he will today. That said, there are some things to like in Hill in today’s outing. He has been pitching much better on the road this year compared to last year. Going up against one of the most struggling lineups in baseball should boost his confidence and allows him to have fundamental advantages in this game. The White Sox lineup has struggled all year against southpaws, barely cracking a .200 average, while producing only 18 home runs, two deficiencies that should offset Hills recent ones. Despite getting to Hill in his only start against them last year, the sustainability factor is lacking, as both Hill and the White Sox were clearly different entities last year, while the only hitter in the lineup that proved to have success was Iguchi, a batter that has one home run since April 20th. Zambrano’s gem yesterday allowed the Cubs bullpen to get rested and take over the duties if Hills recent form continues.
Guillen appears to be lost when it comes to managing this team. The bullpen struggles all year has forced him to leave his starters out to dry and leave them in one inning too many. Vasquez has been a victim of such all year. Vaszuez, much like Hill, has been prone to the long ball, especially of late. Although only allowing four at home, the ballpark confines coupled with his pitching style appears to make this number more of an anomaly than a sustainable trend. Vasquez’s DERA and NRA shows he has been a better pitcher than his surface numbers indicate this year, while his WHIP would tell you the same story. That said, he is in the midst of a nightmare month for him, which he has produced a career five plus ERA in, and a six plus ERA in the last two years. The return of Ramirez and the addition of the DH spot add even more depth to the Cubs lineup that makes it really hard on a starter to go through the lineup three plus times, which has become a necessity for White Sox starters. If the Cubs chose to put Ward in the DH spot, the Cubs will put five veteran hitters with a large sample of at bats that have produced solid numbers against Vazquez. With even struggles to Jenks, the White Sox will have to score early on Hill, or their chances of winning this game diminishes significantly.
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Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Chicago Cubs Intrinsic Value: -114
Chicago Cubs Consider Betting Price: +100
Chicago White Sox Intrinsic Value: +114
Chicago White Sox Consider Betting Price: +132
Comment:
With the current line, it may appear that the public is finally starting to jump off the Rich Hill bandwagon after his team has lost seven of his last 8 starts. Although in half those starts, he produced quality ones, there is no denying that there has been a structural change in his current pitching form, and he is simply not fooling the hitter like he was earlier in the season. Rich Hill made a living in the minors (highest k/9 ratio) with his dominant curveball, an out pitch which generated a .192 OBA during his first six starts. That said, his curveball hast not been nearly effective in recent outings, and has been a pitch that has allowed three home runs in his last three outings. Hill is a notorious flyball pitcher that can not get away with location mistakes are a high well hit ratio, two variables that have been occurring of late. This holds especially true when playing in the park in which he will today. That said, there are some things to like in Hill in today’s outing. He has been pitching much better on the road this year compared to last year. Going up against one of the most struggling lineups in baseball should boost his confidence and allows him to have fundamental advantages in this game. The White Sox lineup has struggled all year against southpaws, barely cracking a .200 average, while producing only 18 home runs, two deficiencies that should offset Hills recent ones. Despite getting to Hill in his only start against them last year, the sustainability factor is lacking, as both Hill and the White Sox were clearly different entities last year, while the only hitter in the lineup that proved to have success was Iguchi, a batter that has one home run since April 20th. Zambrano’s gem yesterday allowed the Cubs bullpen to get rested and take over the duties if Hills recent form continues.
Guillen appears to be lost when it comes to managing this team. The bullpen struggles all year has forced him to leave his starters out to dry and leave them in one inning too many. Vasquez has been a victim of such all year. Vaszuez, much like Hill, has been prone to the long ball, especially of late. Although only allowing four at home, the ballpark confines coupled with his pitching style appears to make this number more of an anomaly than a sustainable trend. Vasquez’s DERA and NRA shows he has been a better pitcher than his surface numbers indicate this year, while his WHIP would tell you the same story. That said, he is in the midst of a nightmare month for him, which he has produced a career five plus ERA in, and a six plus ERA in the last two years. The return of Ramirez and the addition of the DH spot add even more depth to the Cubs lineup that makes it really hard on a starter to go through the lineup three plus times, which has become a necessity for White Sox starters. If the Cubs chose to put Ward in the DH spot, the Cubs will put five veteran hitters with a large sample of at bats that have produced solid numbers against Vazquez. With even struggles to Jenks, the White Sox will have to score early on Hill, or their chances of winning this game diminishes significantly.
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Philies Intrinsic Value: +131
Phillies Consider Betting Price: +163
Cardinals Intrinsic Value: -131
Cardinals Consider Betting Price: -118
Comment:
There is no denying that the Phillies have the clear advantage when it comes to lineup quality, but away from home, how special has this lineup been? Ranking in the middle of the league in average and slugging away from their bandbox, their home ballpark dimensions clearly take away part of the assets of the Phillies lineup. That said, they have some variables working in their favor in this game. After appearing to get things back on track in recent starts, Wainwright took another step backwards in his outing last week against an anemic Royals lineup, that leaves a handicapper to wonder if there is more to his mediocre minor numbers in his career. Being a flyball pitcher, the Cardinals ballpark will be a big advantage in facing this powerful Phillies lineup. Aside from that, if Wainwright doesn’t have his best stuff in this game, the Phillies lineup clearly has the majority of the fundamental advantages. Wainwright’s style of pitching makes it easy for left handed bats to pick up. He has yet to figure out the appropriate out pitch for left handed hitters and tries to pitch around them too much. This could prove costly against a lineup stacked from the left side, and is one of the most patient lineups in all of baseball that will be more than willing to take the walk Wainwright seems to give out to left handers at will. If this trend continues, the Phillies aggressive base stealing will be a huge asset with Bennett behind home plate, who is nowhere nearly as good at throwing out runner than Molina. If Wainwright does have his A game, the Phillies chances diminish significantly, as the Cardinals have three live southpaw arms that can curtail the effects of this left handed lineup.
Eaton has three straight quality starts under his belt against plus lineups, but that is not nearly enough for me to conclude he has turned the corner. The accumulation of injuries over the last three years has made a sub par pitcher out of a pretty big pitching prospect. His command is lacking, which is the last deficiency a pitcher that lacks overpowering pitches to have. Yesterday’s game aside, the Cardinals have been hitting the ball very well of late, and are actually a lineup that is a threat against right handed pitchers, which allows Duncan to play. The Cardinals also possess veteran hitters that have the right approach against Eaton, having patience and waiting for that location mistake that often comes. Eaton is also not an innings eater, and the Phillies Achilles heal is their bullpen.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Philies Intrinsic Value: +131
Phillies Consider Betting Price: +163
Cardinals Intrinsic Value: -131
Cardinals Consider Betting Price: -118
Comment:
There is no denying that the Phillies have the clear advantage when it comes to lineup quality, but away from home, how special has this lineup been? Ranking in the middle of the league in average and slugging away from their bandbox, their home ballpark dimensions clearly take away part of the assets of the Phillies lineup. That said, they have some variables working in their favor in this game. After appearing to get things back on track in recent starts, Wainwright took another step backwards in his outing last week against an anemic Royals lineup, that leaves a handicapper to wonder if there is more to his mediocre minor numbers in his career. Being a flyball pitcher, the Cardinals ballpark will be a big advantage in facing this powerful Phillies lineup. Aside from that, if Wainwright doesn’t have his best stuff in this game, the Phillies lineup clearly has the majority of the fundamental advantages. Wainwright’s style of pitching makes it easy for left handed bats to pick up. He has yet to figure out the appropriate out pitch for left handed hitters and tries to pitch around them too much. This could prove costly against a lineup stacked from the left side, and is one of the most patient lineups in all of baseball that will be more than willing to take the walk Wainwright seems to give out to left handers at will. If this trend continues, the Phillies aggressive base stealing will be a huge asset with Bennett behind home plate, who is nowhere nearly as good at throwing out runner than Molina. If Wainwright does have his A game, the Phillies chances diminish significantly, as the Cardinals have three live southpaw arms that can curtail the effects of this left handed lineup.
Eaton has three straight quality starts under his belt against plus lineups, but that is not nearly enough for me to conclude he has turned the corner. The accumulation of injuries over the last three years has made a sub par pitcher out of a pretty big pitching prospect. His command is lacking, which is the last deficiency a pitcher that lacks overpowering pitches to have. Yesterday’s game aside, the Cardinals have been hitting the ball very well of late, and are actually a lineup that is a threat against right handed pitchers, which allows Duncan to play. The Cardinals also possess veteran hitters that have the right approach against Eaton, having patience and waiting for that location mistake that often comes. Eaton is also not an innings eater, and the Phillies Achilles heal is their bullpen.
Colorado Rockies @ Toronto Blue Jays
Rockies Intrinsic Value: +102
Rockies Consider Betting Price: +124
Blue Jays Intrinsic Value: -102
Blue Jays Consider Betting Price: +118
Comment:
Soft valuation aside, this market price seems to be efficiently set. Both books and handicappers alike don’t know what to expect from Taubenheim. Add the potential intangible a young road team like the Rockies are experiencing, and this game could go anywhere. After sweeping the Yankees at home, the Rockies traveled to Toronto with a lot of momentum. After losing in extra innings in an emotional game, it is hard to know how the Rockies rebound to such. Taubenheim is supposedly a strike thrower, but lacks ideal consistency both in the minors and majors. He showed some upside in a few appearances last year, but lacking overpowering pitches makes him heavily dependent on solid control, something that has the tendency to disappear from time to time. Not helping matters is the fact that the Rockies have been showing much more patience at the plate in recent series, and are no longer the young, free swinging lineup they were earlier in the season. Right handed batters hit him well last year, while he lacked ideal control against the left handed hitters, also two favorable variables for the Rockies, as they have the ideal patience from the left side and talent from the right side. Also not helping matters for Blue Jays bettors is the notion that Gibbons is one of the worst managers when it comes to pulling pitches, as the has both the tendency to pull them to early, or too late ( like last night with Towers). The Blue Jays pen does have ideal depth and long relievers in the front end to compliment an unknown on the mound, but they did get their fair share of work in last night.
Cook has been a disappointment of late, as having a premier sinkerball in his arsenal of pitches, has not helped him live up to his potential. Although he is much more vulnerable against lineups loaded from the left side, his recent trend of struggling against right handed batters could prove costly against this lineup loaded from the right side. The novelty effect of facing lineups not having seen his sinker pitch did not prove to be much of an advantage in his last start against the Devil Rays. His June woes of 03 and 04 that went away in 06, seems to be creeping up on him again. If his recent form continues, the Blue Jays have a very unforgiving lineup for pitchers that do not come in with their best stuff. Being a sinkerball pitcher is also not the best of assets playing on this fast carpet that makes hits out of routine ground ball outs. That said, the sinkerball may prove to be a marquee advantage of his counterpart playing with the roof open and wind blowing out. The Rockies underbelly is not the greatest either, and could be overmatched against
0
Colorado Rockies @ Toronto Blue Jays
Rockies Intrinsic Value: +102
Rockies Consider Betting Price: +124
Blue Jays Intrinsic Value: -102
Blue Jays Consider Betting Price: +118
Comment:
Soft valuation aside, this market price seems to be efficiently set. Both books and handicappers alike don’t know what to expect from Taubenheim. Add the potential intangible a young road team like the Rockies are experiencing, and this game could go anywhere. After sweeping the Yankees at home, the Rockies traveled to Toronto with a lot of momentum. After losing in extra innings in an emotional game, it is hard to know how the Rockies rebound to such. Taubenheim is supposedly a strike thrower, but lacks ideal consistency both in the minors and majors. He showed some upside in a few appearances last year, but lacking overpowering pitches makes him heavily dependent on solid control, something that has the tendency to disappear from time to time. Not helping matters is the fact that the Rockies have been showing much more patience at the plate in recent series, and are no longer the young, free swinging lineup they were earlier in the season. Right handed batters hit him well last year, while he lacked ideal control against the left handed hitters, also two favorable variables for the Rockies, as they have the ideal patience from the left side and talent from the right side. Also not helping matters for Blue Jays bettors is the notion that Gibbons is one of the worst managers when it comes to pulling pitches, as the has both the tendency to pull them to early, or too late ( like last night with Towers). The Blue Jays pen does have ideal depth and long relievers in the front end to compliment an unknown on the mound, but they did get their fair share of work in last night.
Cook has been a disappointment of late, as having a premier sinkerball in his arsenal of pitches, has not helped him live up to his potential. Although he is much more vulnerable against lineups loaded from the left side, his recent trend of struggling against right handed batters could prove costly against this lineup loaded from the right side. The novelty effect of facing lineups not having seen his sinker pitch did not prove to be much of an advantage in his last start against the Devil Rays. His June woes of 03 and 04 that went away in 06, seems to be creeping up on him again. If his recent form continues, the Blue Jays have a very unforgiving lineup for pitchers that do not come in with their best stuff. Being a sinkerball pitcher is also not the best of assets playing on this fast carpet that makes hits out of routine ground ball outs. That said, the sinkerball may prove to be a marquee advantage of his counterpart playing with the roof open and wind blowing out. The Rockies underbelly is not the greatest either, and could be overmatched against
As Interleague comes to an end today, one would think that the lines would be getting progressively more efficiently set, as both handicappers and linesmakers alike have a better feel on have to value such games. However, in my opinion, this is the second straight day in which the inefficiency of the market warrants at least eight plays.
Most interesting game.Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Cubs Intrinsic Value: +143
Cubs Consider Betting Price: +180
White Sox Intrinsic Value: -143
White Sox Consider Betting Price: -128
Comment:
Today might be the day in which the White Sox have witnessed what I call capitulation by linesmakers, as a rarely undervalued home team is distinctly undervalued from their fair value. It appears that linesmakers are cognitively slapping on a price below what they feel, knowing that takers will be far and few between. However, does value lie in a team playing as poorly as the White Sox have of late?
I am not sure the reason Pinella has chosen to put Hill and Marshall on back to back starts, but I don’t like it, as allowing a team to see to very similar lefties on back to back games seems to give the hitters an advantage. Marshall, much like Hill, has a lot of upside potential, but currently is behind Hill in effectiveness and experience. Although he has pitched well out of the gates, he is simply not consistent or dominating enough to keep his current numbers sustained. He witnessed a setback start in his last outing, as two variables that plagued him last year reoccurred. Those two variables are the long ball and the walks (he has allowed four home runs in his last ten innings and walked three batters in his four inning start against a free swinging Rangers team). Marshall’s curveball and sinker are not as overpowering as Hill’s pitches, and needs the location to be effective. He is not suited for pitching in hitters parks like the one he will be in today, nor does a high walk total ideal against a team struggling to get hits. Although the White Sox will be without one of their power hitters Dye, Podsednik’s return to the lineup provided immediate dividends in yesterday’s game, and could do such again today as Marshall’s slow delivery to the plate opens up opportunities for baserunners. Marshall has also been struggling more against left handed hitters than right handed ones year to date. Another variable that could prove costly for Marshall is the notion that Bucknor is behind home plate, and umpire whose small strike zone could be a huge disadvantage for a high walk rate pitcher, and his propensity to be tougher on young pitchers is a disadvantage for Marshall as well. Although he is backed by a deep bullpen, it is a bullpen that will more than likely be without their closer again in today’s game.
I have been saying for a couple years now that Contreras reemergence as a dominant pitcher will be short lived and the expensive price tags he was carrying for quite some time was unwarranted. It appears that linesmakers and the public finally agree with the notion, as he appears undervalued in today’s game. Contreras has for the most part this year been ineffective and inconsistent, especially of late. However, having to pitch against the Marlins, Yankees, Blue Jays and Phillies in his last four starts will inflate any pitchers numbers and make them look worse than they really are. What I do like about Contreras this year is the fact that he has done a good job keeping the ball in the park, an asset that is magnified in this bandbox and against a lineup who has home run power spread throughout. The Cubs power also predominantly comes from the right side, another favorable variable for Contreras, as he has allowed just one home run all year against right handed hitters. Contreras has also always been more effective throughout his career during day games. His obscure arm angles, delivery and types of pitches has always been hard for hitters to pick up during day games. Having pitched just 185 pitches in his last two outings should also allow Contreras to have a fresher arm than usual, and better avoid their struggling bullpen. The White Sox are not the only lineup that has not looked terribly effective in recent games, as the Cubs have scored in just six of their last 27 innings.
Sure, the White Sox are a risky team to bet on at this point of time. However, on a risk/return tradeoff, in my opinion, linesmakers have transferred the risk back to the Cubs with the line they put forth in this game.
0
As Interleague comes to an end today, one would think that the lines would be getting progressively more efficiently set, as both handicappers and linesmakers alike have a better feel on have to value such games. However, in my opinion, this is the second straight day in which the inefficiency of the market warrants at least eight plays.
Most interesting game.Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Cubs Intrinsic Value: +143
Cubs Consider Betting Price: +180
White Sox Intrinsic Value: -143
White Sox Consider Betting Price: -128
Comment:
Today might be the day in which the White Sox have witnessed what I call capitulation by linesmakers, as a rarely undervalued home team is distinctly undervalued from their fair value. It appears that linesmakers are cognitively slapping on a price below what they feel, knowing that takers will be far and few between. However, does value lie in a team playing as poorly as the White Sox have of late?
I am not sure the reason Pinella has chosen to put Hill and Marshall on back to back starts, but I don’t like it, as allowing a team to see to very similar lefties on back to back games seems to give the hitters an advantage. Marshall, much like Hill, has a lot of upside potential, but currently is behind Hill in effectiveness and experience. Although he has pitched well out of the gates, he is simply not consistent or dominating enough to keep his current numbers sustained. He witnessed a setback start in his last outing, as two variables that plagued him last year reoccurred. Those two variables are the long ball and the walks (he has allowed four home runs in his last ten innings and walked three batters in his four inning start against a free swinging Rangers team). Marshall’s curveball and sinker are not as overpowering as Hill’s pitches, and needs the location to be effective. He is not suited for pitching in hitters parks like the one he will be in today, nor does a high walk total ideal against a team struggling to get hits. Although the White Sox will be without one of their power hitters Dye, Podsednik’s return to the lineup provided immediate dividends in yesterday’s game, and could do such again today as Marshall’s slow delivery to the plate opens up opportunities for baserunners. Marshall has also been struggling more against left handed hitters than right handed ones year to date. Another variable that could prove costly for Marshall is the notion that Bucknor is behind home plate, and umpire whose small strike zone could be a huge disadvantage for a high walk rate pitcher, and his propensity to be tougher on young pitchers is a disadvantage for Marshall as well. Although he is backed by a deep bullpen, it is a bullpen that will more than likely be without their closer again in today’s game.
I have been saying for a couple years now that Contreras reemergence as a dominant pitcher will be short lived and the expensive price tags he was carrying for quite some time was unwarranted. It appears that linesmakers and the public finally agree with the notion, as he appears undervalued in today’s game. Contreras has for the most part this year been ineffective and inconsistent, especially of late. However, having to pitch against the Marlins, Yankees, Blue Jays and Phillies in his last four starts will inflate any pitchers numbers and make them look worse than they really are. What I do like about Contreras this year is the fact that he has done a good job keeping the ball in the park, an asset that is magnified in this bandbox and against a lineup who has home run power spread throughout. The Cubs power also predominantly comes from the right side, another favorable variable for Contreras, as he has allowed just one home run all year against right handed hitters. Contreras has also always been more effective throughout his career during day games. His obscure arm angles, delivery and types of pitches has always been hard for hitters to pick up during day games. Having pitched just 185 pitches in his last two outings should also allow Contreras to have a fresher arm than usual, and better avoid their struggling bullpen. The White Sox are not the only lineup that has not looked terribly effective in recent games, as the Cubs have scored in just six of their last 27 innings.
Sure, the White Sox are a risky team to bet on at this point of time. However, on a risk/return tradeoff, in my opinion, linesmakers have transferred the risk back to the Cubs with the line they put forth in this game.
Most Underpriced Favorite
Mets
Intrinsic Value: -175 Market Value -144 Consider Betting Price: -156
Comment:
With both the Yankees and Red Sox producing positive ROI’s of late for public bettors and the Mets offensive woes continuing, it is quite apparent that the “blind money” consistently placed on the Mets has been temporarily been parked on the Red Sox and Yankees, as this is the third straight game in which they are trading well below their worth. Both Maine and Kennedy are pitching well over their heads, as Sabermetric indicators for both pitches show that regression is in the future for both starters. However, once regression occurs, you still have a good pitcher in Maine, but a very average one in Kennedy. Kennedy has struggled all year against right handed hitters, and having to face six of them (five of them being solid ones) today could provide the Mets the favorable fundamental advantage to get their offense back up to par. Maine’s improved control in recent starts (four walks in his last four outings) could not have come at a better time, as the A’s rank second to only Boston in walks. Once both regression prospects leave the game, the Mets will put forth the better bullpen pitchers.
Most Underpriced Underdog
Pirates
Intrinsic Value: -108 Market Value +152 Consider Betting Price: +110
Comment:
There is no denying that the Angels are the public darlings so far this season. Until they slowdown, they will continue to be such. Their solid starters, continued bullpen success and improved hitting have made this team very complete and hard to beat. However, can they sustain this rate? Probably not, and if even with the smallest of slowdown, with the current prices they have been carrying will surely put their going forward ROI in the red. Colon may be injured, as his command, mechanics and confidence all looked shot in recent outings. With his current pitching form, he is a liability on the mound, and exactly what a struggling Pirates lineup needs to get things back on track. The front end of the Angels pen has not been terribly effective in recent outings, a portion in which Colon has not been able to avoid for over a month now. With the way Gorzelanny has been pitching, his current ERA is far from sustainable, and against a hot Angel’s lineup may be the start in which he witnesses’ regression. However, at this price, he is well worth the risk.
Today’s Best game
Red Sox at Padres
Comment:
What do you get when you put a public favorite team like the Red Sox up against a public favorite pitcher like Peavy? Market efficiency, as both inflating variables normally offset each other. With today’s intrinsic value set at -128 for the Padres, there appears to be no value on either team, and a game simply good to watch from a fan’s perspective.
0
Most Underpriced Favorite
Mets
Intrinsic Value: -175 Market Value -144 Consider Betting Price: -156
Comment:
With both the Yankees and Red Sox producing positive ROI’s of late for public bettors and the Mets offensive woes continuing, it is quite apparent that the “blind money” consistently placed on the Mets has been temporarily been parked on the Red Sox and Yankees, as this is the third straight game in which they are trading well below their worth. Both Maine and Kennedy are pitching well over their heads, as Sabermetric indicators for both pitches show that regression is in the future for both starters. However, once regression occurs, you still have a good pitcher in Maine, but a very average one in Kennedy. Kennedy has struggled all year against right handed hitters, and having to face six of them (five of them being solid ones) today could provide the Mets the favorable fundamental advantage to get their offense back up to par. Maine’s improved control in recent starts (four walks in his last four outings) could not have come at a better time, as the A’s rank second to only Boston in walks. Once both regression prospects leave the game, the Mets will put forth the better bullpen pitchers.
Most Underpriced Underdog
Pirates
Intrinsic Value: -108 Market Value +152 Consider Betting Price: +110
Comment:
There is no denying that the Angels are the public darlings so far this season. Until they slowdown, they will continue to be such. Their solid starters, continued bullpen success and improved hitting have made this team very complete and hard to beat. However, can they sustain this rate? Probably not, and if even with the smallest of slowdown, with the current prices they have been carrying will surely put their going forward ROI in the red. Colon may be injured, as his command, mechanics and confidence all looked shot in recent outings. With his current pitching form, he is a liability on the mound, and exactly what a struggling Pirates lineup needs to get things back on track. The front end of the Angels pen has not been terribly effective in recent outings, a portion in which Colon has not been able to avoid for over a month now. With the way Gorzelanny has been pitching, his current ERA is far from sustainable, and against a hot Angel’s lineup may be the start in which he witnesses’ regression. However, at this price, he is well worth the risk.
Today’s Best game
Red Sox at Padres
Comment:
What do you get when you put a public favorite team like the Red Sox up against a public favorite pitcher like Peavy? Market efficiency, as both inflating variables normally offset each other. With today’s intrinsic value set at -128 for the Padres, there appears to be no value on either team, and a game simply good to watch from a fan’s perspective.
Good topic and post.
Keep in mind, the way you are calculating and interpreting a handicappers ROI’s does not allow you to compare apples to apples, as it still leaves you vulnerable to the shenanigans some posters employ via their exaggerated unit rating system. It is quite apparent that some of the posters that are employing high disparity unit levels can easily mask previous ROI’s as easily as their units by increasing the nominal unit size of their bet. How often do you see a 1-5 unit bettor starting upping his bets to 10 to 20 units? How does this increase in unit size affect their previous ROI percentage? A lot. My advice is to simply ignore such handicappers, as while they think their huge “unit” bets show how much they like a particular play, in reality all it does is show their amateurship and inexperience.
But if you so chose to include such handicappers into your measuring benchmark you have to “normalize” the returns so the benchmark becomes measurable by making same bets amongst handicappers fungible. Simply normalize it by making each bet a handicapper makes a 1 unit play, allowing their units and ROI to be comparable and not be exploited by shenanigans.
If you want to include their “likings” of a play, segregate another benchmark into a “Value Added Benchmark” comparing their ROI on a normalized basis compared to their unit ranking basis.
But unless you make each handicappers bets fungible, your benchmark becomes obsolete.
0
Good topic and post.
Keep in mind, the way you are calculating and interpreting a handicappers ROI’s does not allow you to compare apples to apples, as it still leaves you vulnerable to the shenanigans some posters employ via their exaggerated unit rating system. It is quite apparent that some of the posters that are employing high disparity unit levels can easily mask previous ROI’s as easily as their units by increasing the nominal unit size of their bet. How often do you see a 1-5 unit bettor starting upping his bets to 10 to 20 units? How does this increase in unit size affect their previous ROI percentage? A lot. My advice is to simply ignore such handicappers, as while they think their huge “unit” bets show how much they like a particular play, in reality all it does is show their amateurship and inexperience.
But if you so chose to include such handicappers into your measuring benchmark you have to “normalize” the returns so the benchmark becomes measurable by making same bets amongst handicappers fungible. Simply normalize it by making each bet a handicapper makes a 1 unit play, allowing their units and ROI to be comparable and not be exploited by shenanigans.
If you want to include their “likings” of a play, segregate another benchmark into a “Value Added Benchmark” comparing their ROI on a normalized basis compared to their unit ranking basis.
But unless you make each handicappers bets fungible, your benchmark becomes obsolete.
Today’s Best Game
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Twins Intrinsic Value: -128
Twins Consider Betting Price: -115
Tigers Intrinsic Value: +128
Tigers Consider Betting Price: +148
Comment:
You know you are in for a quality match when both pitchers combined have been underdog just twice all season. In fact, although public money had temporally shied away from Santana in recent starts due to his misperceived slowdown, today will mark the first time Santana has been underdog in nearly 50 starts. Although public money on Santana since the open has taken a good share of the value away from the Twins, in my opinion, they still warrant a play. Santana has returned to dominant fashion in his last three outings in which he has allowed just 14 hits in 22 innings of work. Although his recently increased fly ball ratio still has not returned to regulatory, his well hit ball ratio has actually settled below career norm in recent outings, offsetting the potential risk an increased fly ball rate against a power lineup like the Tigers. Santana’s dominating changeup and disparity of pitches is not a novelty for this division team in the Tigers, but it is still a challenge. Santana has put forth quality starts in both outings against them this year, and produced solid numbers against them last year as well. Although it is rare to have three hitters in a lineup that have had the upper hand against Santana, the Tigers have such. More importantly, these three hitters, Palanco, Sheffield, and Ordonez have the leverage of batting in sequence, magnifying the embedded advantage over Santana. However, neither Sheffield nor Ordonez have been a power threat in recent series, while Polanco has not been terribly effective against southpaws this season. This increases the chances of forcing this Tigers advantage in manufacturing mode, and forcing role hitters who have not had success against Santana in more important roles. Santana is also backed by the best bullpen in the American League, and a bullpen that has had past success against this Tigers lineup. This should allow the Twins to have the pitching edge throughout the game. The Tigers have once again not been a terribly effective at home this year, as the ballpark dimensions actually counter the Tigers strengths at the plate.
Verlander is a dominant pitcher in his own right, but a pitcher that has been overachieving a bit for a season and a half now. His propensity to lack command, walk a high rate of batters, and his negative Delta H show that he is a bit more of a liability on the mound than most pitchers supporting a sub three ERA. Although June has been his most dominant month this season, last year showed he was prone to dead arm and wearing down late in the season, making his also a prospect having put forth his best stuff already this year. His increased walk rate this month is also a magnified liability against a Twins lineup that will not only make you throw strikes, but makes the most of their walks given. The Twins handed Verlander his worst home start this season, where he lasted only three innings and allowed eight hits during that span. The fact that Verlander has not been as effective against his division compared to other teams this season shows that he carries an embedded advantage against lineups that do not have a lot of experience against him, which is simply not the case for the Twins lineup. Verlanders increased pitches per inning does not bode well for the Tigers as their bullpen has now become a liability.
An Undervalued Favorite
Mariners
It is not that often that you see a hot team (and better rested) like the Mariners this undervalued at home. However, with Washburn’s sub par June, McGowan’s one hitter in his last start, and the public flocking to hitting power has created value on this underrated Mariners team once again. There is no denying that Washburn has not been the same quality pitcher this month as he was earlier in the season. Lacking overpowering pitches and being a notorious fly ball pitcher, command is Washburn most vital asset. His significantly increased well hit ball ratio and walk total this month is clear cut evidence that his command has been lacking. Having said that pitching in this park automatically offsets some of this liability, as it is more forgiving to fly ball pitchers compared to most AL parks. Washburn also showed a somewhat of a return to form in his last outing where he dominated the Reds at home. Although he has not had the greatest success against the Blue Jays in the past, it is a team that has not seen his stuff for two years now. Washburn has had past success against some of the Blue Jays hitters, and poses a match up problem for integral pars of the lineup. The Blue Jays are no longer the dominant force against southpaws as they were last year, and are better suited facing the lefty power pitchers than the finesse one that will be on the mound tonight. The Mariners dominant bullpen has been flying under the radar all season, and they showed how vital they are to this team’s success in the Red Sox series, in which they got out of a lot of clutch jams. They also got a much needed day off yesterday and should come into this game fresher than they have been for a while. The Blue Jays have consistently been a much more potent hitting team at home.
As much as last start was a bounce back start for McGowan, tonight’s start is a letdown one. Coming off an outing in which a no hitter was broken up in the 9th inning leaves a young pitcher like McGowan vulnerable to a letdown. He does not have the ideal stuff to make on think he could carry his last outing out for a while, and in reality is a pitcher better suited for the bullpen. Aside from his last start, he has been vulnerable to the walk and base hit, and his 12 for 12 stolen bases allowed rate could prove huge against a team with this amount of speed. Facing a team that has scored eight or more runs in three of their last five could overwhelm McGowan. He has pitched much more in his young career away from home, and actually comes into this game with a seven plus road ERA. Simply put, don’t put much stock in his last performance, as in reality McGowan is not a pitcher with much upside. This line shows public perception is not reality.
0
Today’s Best Game
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Twins Intrinsic Value: -128
Twins Consider Betting Price: -115
Tigers Intrinsic Value: +128
Tigers Consider Betting Price: +148
Comment:
You know you are in for a quality match when both pitchers combined have been underdog just twice all season. In fact, although public money had temporally shied away from Santana in recent starts due to his misperceived slowdown, today will mark the first time Santana has been underdog in nearly 50 starts. Although public money on Santana since the open has taken a good share of the value away from the Twins, in my opinion, they still warrant a play. Santana has returned to dominant fashion in his last three outings in which he has allowed just 14 hits in 22 innings of work. Although his recently increased fly ball ratio still has not returned to regulatory, his well hit ball ratio has actually settled below career norm in recent outings, offsetting the potential risk an increased fly ball rate against a power lineup like the Tigers. Santana’s dominating changeup and disparity of pitches is not a novelty for this division team in the Tigers, but it is still a challenge. Santana has put forth quality starts in both outings against them this year, and produced solid numbers against them last year as well. Although it is rare to have three hitters in a lineup that have had the upper hand against Santana, the Tigers have such. More importantly, these three hitters, Palanco, Sheffield, and Ordonez have the leverage of batting in sequence, magnifying the embedded advantage over Santana. However, neither Sheffield nor Ordonez have been a power threat in recent series, while Polanco has not been terribly effective against southpaws this season. This increases the chances of forcing this Tigers advantage in manufacturing mode, and forcing role hitters who have not had success against Santana in more important roles. Santana is also backed by the best bullpen in the American League, and a bullpen that has had past success against this Tigers lineup. This should allow the Twins to have the pitching edge throughout the game. The Tigers have once again not been a terribly effective at home this year, as the ballpark dimensions actually counter the Tigers strengths at the plate.
Verlander is a dominant pitcher in his own right, but a pitcher that has been overachieving a bit for a season and a half now. His propensity to lack command, walk a high rate of batters, and his negative Delta H show that he is a bit more of a liability on the mound than most pitchers supporting a sub three ERA. Although June has been his most dominant month this season, last year showed he was prone to dead arm and wearing down late in the season, making his also a prospect having put forth his best stuff already this year. His increased walk rate this month is also a magnified liability against a Twins lineup that will not only make you throw strikes, but makes the most of their walks given. The Twins handed Verlander his worst home start this season, where he lasted only three innings and allowed eight hits during that span. The fact that Verlander has not been as effective against his division compared to other teams this season shows that he carries an embedded advantage against lineups that do not have a lot of experience against him, which is simply not the case for the Twins lineup. Verlanders increased pitches per inning does not bode well for the Tigers as their bullpen has now become a liability.
An Undervalued Favorite
Mariners
It is not that often that you see a hot team (and better rested) like the Mariners this undervalued at home. However, with Washburn’s sub par June, McGowan’s one hitter in his last start, and the public flocking to hitting power has created value on this underrated Mariners team once again. There is no denying that Washburn has not been the same quality pitcher this month as he was earlier in the season. Lacking overpowering pitches and being a notorious fly ball pitcher, command is Washburn most vital asset. His significantly increased well hit ball ratio and walk total this month is clear cut evidence that his command has been lacking. Having said that pitching in this park automatically offsets some of this liability, as it is more forgiving to fly ball pitchers compared to most AL parks. Washburn also showed a somewhat of a return to form in his last outing where he dominated the Reds at home. Although he has not had the greatest success against the Blue Jays in the past, it is a team that has not seen his stuff for two years now. Washburn has had past success against some of the Blue Jays hitters, and poses a match up problem for integral pars of the lineup. The Blue Jays are no longer the dominant force against southpaws as they were last year, and are better suited facing the lefty power pitchers than the finesse one that will be on the mound tonight. The Mariners dominant bullpen has been flying under the radar all season, and they showed how vital they are to this team’s success in the Red Sox series, in which they got out of a lot of clutch jams. They also got a much needed day off yesterday and should come into this game fresher than they have been for a while. The Blue Jays have consistently been a much more potent hitting team at home.
As much as last start was a bounce back start for McGowan, tonight’s start is a letdown one. Coming off an outing in which a no hitter was broken up in the 9th inning leaves a young pitcher like McGowan vulnerable to a letdown. He does not have the ideal stuff to make on think he could carry his last outing out for a while, and in reality is a pitcher better suited for the bullpen. Aside from his last start, he has been vulnerable to the walk and base hit, and his 12 for 12 stolen bases allowed rate could prove huge against a team with this amount of speed. Facing a team that has scored eight or more runs in three of their last five could overwhelm McGowan. He has pitched much more in his young career away from home, and actually comes into this game with a seven plus road ERA. Simply put, don’t put much stock in his last performance, as in reality McGowan is not a pitcher with much upside. This line shows public perception is not reality.
An Undervalued Underdog
Cardinals
No, Arroyo is not as bad of a pitcher as this year’s numbers would indicate. However, he was nowhere nearly as good of a pitcher that last years numbers would indicate, and a slowdown from those numbers was imminent. It was quite evident that last year defied logic for Arroyo as he was able to put forth a 2.60 ERA at home in that bandbox that might be the most unforgiving NL park for fly ball pitcher like he is. This year, not only has N.L hitters caught up with Arroyo’s backward pitching, but he has been unable to avoid the small confines of Great American, as he comes into today’s game with a plus seven home ERA. Logic would tell you that the teams that should have the most success against Arroyo this year are teams in his division, as the biggest embedded advantage he had last year was his unorthodox style posed a match up problem for hitters with not much experience against him. It appears that the Cardinals have caught up to his style, as their numbers in two starts this season show a solid increase compared to last year. Arroyo’s decrease in productivity against right handed hitters this year also gives a team like the Cardinals who predominantly bat from the right side another advantage over Arroyo. Arroyo’s recent struggles has made him a less likely candidate of going deep into this game, which does not bode well for a Reds team comes into today’s game with an inferior bullpen that got a lot of work in last night.
Wainwright has not readjusted terribly well back to the starting role, but he is far too talented to keep his current underachieving numbers sustained. He has been getting progressively better with each month, and has actually generated a 2.91 ERA this month. His curveball has regained effectiveness of late, which could prove to be a huge asset against a team not terribly productive against the breaking ball. Wainwright has improved his efficiency against left handed hitters, especially his power numbers allowed, which is also a huge advantage when pitching against this park and this lineup. Being backed by the superior bullpen and a bullpen loaded from the left side (which will offset the Reds hitters being loaded from the left side) should give the Cardinals the advantage in the later innings and force the Reds lineup to get to an improved Wainwright early in this game.
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An Undervalued Underdog
Cardinals
No, Arroyo is not as bad of a pitcher as this year’s numbers would indicate. However, he was nowhere nearly as good of a pitcher that last years numbers would indicate, and a slowdown from those numbers was imminent. It was quite evident that last year defied logic for Arroyo as he was able to put forth a 2.60 ERA at home in that bandbox that might be the most unforgiving NL park for fly ball pitcher like he is. This year, not only has N.L hitters caught up with Arroyo’s backward pitching, but he has been unable to avoid the small confines of Great American, as he comes into today’s game with a plus seven home ERA. Logic would tell you that the teams that should have the most success against Arroyo this year are teams in his division, as the biggest embedded advantage he had last year was his unorthodox style posed a match up problem for hitters with not much experience against him. It appears that the Cardinals have caught up to his style, as their numbers in two starts this season show a solid increase compared to last year. Arroyo’s decrease in productivity against right handed hitters this year also gives a team like the Cardinals who predominantly bat from the right side another advantage over Arroyo. Arroyo’s recent struggles has made him a less likely candidate of going deep into this game, which does not bode well for a Reds team comes into today’s game with an inferior bullpen that got a lot of work in last night.
Wainwright has not readjusted terribly well back to the starting role, but he is far too talented to keep his current underachieving numbers sustained. He has been getting progressively better with each month, and has actually generated a 2.91 ERA this month. His curveball has regained effectiveness of late, which could prove to be a huge asset against a team not terribly productive against the breaking ball. Wainwright has improved his efficiency against left handed hitters, especially his power numbers allowed, which is also a huge advantage when pitching against this park and this lineup. Being backed by the superior bullpen and a bullpen loaded from the left side (which will offset the Reds hitters being loaded from the left side) should give the Cardinals the advantage in the later innings and force the Reds lineup to get to an improved Wainwright early in this game.
Today’s Most Undervalued Team
Giants
Dave Robert’s two run error cost me an 8-0 night last night. However, I have no problem going right back on the Giants, as there is not a team today trading more below their intrinsic value. I did not expect linesmakers to open this game any different than what they did, nor did I expect many value bettors to jump on the Giants and bid their price up. However, there exists a lot of hidden value on this slumping ball club in this game. Lowry does have his downfalls. His propensity to walk a lot of batters and get himself in early inning jams puts him in the stretch all too often and forces him to accumulate a high pitch count early in games. His inability to put forth solid starts on the road makes him a one dimensional home pitcher. His flyball tendencies make him liability in small parks. His propensity to nibble around the plate makes him vulnerable against veteran/patient lineups that do not chase. However, not one of these liabilities should come into play in this game, as he pitches in his spacious home park against a young and aggressive lineup that has struggled hitting the changeup all season. Lowry has once again been dominant at home this season, coming into today’s game with a sub three home ERA, which includes his last start against the Yankees where he allowed just one run and two hits. Lowry has dominated the Diamondbacks throughout his career, especially in his home starts. Although he has yet to face them at home this season, his last two home starts against them were both shutout performances. Lowry’s increased velocity on his fastball has once again made him a dominant force against left handed hitters, as they are batting well under .200 against him this season. This does not bode well for a team that has a few dangerous hitters from the left side. This will also put more pressure on the Diamondbacks right handed hitters. Only two of their right handed batters have at least eight at bats against Lowry, and come into today’s game a combined 3 for 21 against him, while the remaining right handed hitters have predominantly struggled against finesse pitchers this season. The Diamondbacks are far less potent against southpaws and less productive away from home. Although Lowry has not been eating up a lot of innings in most of his starts, the aggressive style of the Diamondbacks hitters should allow him to not accumulate as high of a pitch count compared to the more patient lineups he faces. The addition of Messenger adds needed depth to the Giants bullpen, and makes them a decent unit.
There is not a more deflated ERA in baseball than Davis’s 4.16 this season, as his WHIP of 1.72 is usually accompanied with an ERA well in the fives. Last month, he was supporting an ERA in the three’s with his high WHIP, and a slowdown was imminent. Davis’s six plus ERA this month is more of an indicator of his true worth, as he could only get out of so many jams that his high walk total puts him in. The last couple of weeks he has been working hard in cutting down his walk total, a deficiency that he seems to have accomplished a bit. However, it came with a price, as he has been much more hittable in his last two outings, allowing 19 hits in just ten innings of work. Davis has never been as effective on the road, and has really struggled in this park. Their appears to be a mental deficiency of pitching in his home town that makes him try too hard, as it has shown with his presence on the mound as well as his numbers. The Giants have veteran hitters that will not chase Davis out of the zone, and have three hitters with solid lifetime success against him. Davis’s high pitch count early in games does not make him a candidate to go deep in this one. Although the Diamondbacks underbelly of their bullpen has pitched well, they have a couple front end pitchers that are known to struggle against the Giants.
Are the Yankees Actually Undervalued?
It is not often that you can find fundamental value on the Yankees, as their true worth is consistently marked up in anticipation of public money. However, it appears that public money is finally becoming fed up with backing the worst ROI in baseball, and may wait to park their money back on them when they have one of their veteran pitchers on the mound. This has made the Yankees a rare value play at most online shops, as they are trading below my -152 consider betting price. Igawa has really struggled in his first season with the team. However, when sent down to the minors, he improved on his delivery, and his solid performances down their seemed to carry over in his first start back where he put forth a respectful start against the Giants last week. Although it was apparent that he was overpaid from the onset, he does have more talent than his current numbers would lead one to believe, and his propensity to allow the long ball should be helped out by this park and the lack of power the A’s lineup brings to the table. This is the first time in which Igawa will pitch to the same team, a variable that he may be able to feed off of. This holds especially true since his first start against the A’s might have been his best start of the season. Mussina’s ability to eat up seven innings last night gives the Yankees more leverage in handling Igawa. The A’s are a young team that feeds off momentum, something that is clearly lacking during their east coast road trip.
As expected Gaudins solid season of last year and solid start to this year is getting a touch of realism this month, as he is finally coming back down to earth. He is a pitcher that lacks overpowering pitches and heavily relies on his command to get hitters out. However, this variable has clearly been lacking of late as he has walked 18 batters in his last 28 innings of work. This does not bode well when facing a Yankees lineup that will not go out of the strike zone. In the past, Gaudin was able to get out of the jams his walk total created by pitching well in the stretch, something that he just has not been able to do in recent outs. Guadin has also really struggled against left handed bats, especially of late. They have been hitting him hard, which has forced him to try to pitch around them- which is the catalyst to his near 2 WHIP against left handed hitters. Facing six left handed hitters today will certainly put Guadin in situations in which he has not shown to be comfortable in. In past starts, Guadin has been backed by a solid bullpen, which gave the A’s leverage in taking him out before things turn for the worse. However, with three key injuries, the A’s bullpen has now become a liability, and should allow this slumping Yankees lineup to have ideal scoring opportunities throughout this game.
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Today’s Most Undervalued Team
Giants
Dave Robert’s two run error cost me an 8-0 night last night. However, I have no problem going right back on the Giants, as there is not a team today trading more below their intrinsic value. I did not expect linesmakers to open this game any different than what they did, nor did I expect many value bettors to jump on the Giants and bid their price up. However, there exists a lot of hidden value on this slumping ball club in this game. Lowry does have his downfalls. His propensity to walk a lot of batters and get himself in early inning jams puts him in the stretch all too often and forces him to accumulate a high pitch count early in games. His inability to put forth solid starts on the road makes him a one dimensional home pitcher. His flyball tendencies make him liability in small parks. His propensity to nibble around the plate makes him vulnerable against veteran/patient lineups that do not chase. However, not one of these liabilities should come into play in this game, as he pitches in his spacious home park against a young and aggressive lineup that has struggled hitting the changeup all season. Lowry has once again been dominant at home this season, coming into today’s game with a sub three home ERA, which includes his last start against the Yankees where he allowed just one run and two hits. Lowry has dominated the Diamondbacks throughout his career, especially in his home starts. Although he has yet to face them at home this season, his last two home starts against them were both shutout performances. Lowry’s increased velocity on his fastball has once again made him a dominant force against left handed hitters, as they are batting well under .200 against him this season. This does not bode well for a team that has a few dangerous hitters from the left side. This will also put more pressure on the Diamondbacks right handed hitters. Only two of their right handed batters have at least eight at bats against Lowry, and come into today’s game a combined 3 for 21 against him, while the remaining right handed hitters have predominantly struggled against finesse pitchers this season. The Diamondbacks are far less potent against southpaws and less productive away from home. Although Lowry has not been eating up a lot of innings in most of his starts, the aggressive style of the Diamondbacks hitters should allow him to not accumulate as high of a pitch count compared to the more patient lineups he faces. The addition of Messenger adds needed depth to the Giants bullpen, and makes them a decent unit.
There is not a more deflated ERA in baseball than Davis’s 4.16 this season, as his WHIP of 1.72 is usually accompanied with an ERA well in the fives. Last month, he was supporting an ERA in the three’s with his high WHIP, and a slowdown was imminent. Davis’s six plus ERA this month is more of an indicator of his true worth, as he could only get out of so many jams that his high walk total puts him in. The last couple of weeks he has been working hard in cutting down his walk total, a deficiency that he seems to have accomplished a bit. However, it came with a price, as he has been much more hittable in his last two outings, allowing 19 hits in just ten innings of work. Davis has never been as effective on the road, and has really struggled in this park. Their appears to be a mental deficiency of pitching in his home town that makes him try too hard, as it has shown with his presence on the mound as well as his numbers. The Giants have veteran hitters that will not chase Davis out of the zone, and have three hitters with solid lifetime success against him. Davis’s high pitch count early in games does not make him a candidate to go deep in this one. Although the Diamondbacks underbelly of their bullpen has pitched well, they have a couple front end pitchers that are known to struggle against the Giants.
Are the Yankees Actually Undervalued?
It is not often that you can find fundamental value on the Yankees, as their true worth is consistently marked up in anticipation of public money. However, it appears that public money is finally becoming fed up with backing the worst ROI in baseball, and may wait to park their money back on them when they have one of their veteran pitchers on the mound. This has made the Yankees a rare value play at most online shops, as they are trading below my -152 consider betting price. Igawa has really struggled in his first season with the team. However, when sent down to the minors, he improved on his delivery, and his solid performances down their seemed to carry over in his first start back where he put forth a respectful start against the Giants last week. Although it was apparent that he was overpaid from the onset, he does have more talent than his current numbers would lead one to believe, and his propensity to allow the long ball should be helped out by this park and the lack of power the A’s lineup brings to the table. This is the first time in which Igawa will pitch to the same team, a variable that he may be able to feed off of. This holds especially true since his first start against the A’s might have been his best start of the season. Mussina’s ability to eat up seven innings last night gives the Yankees more leverage in handling Igawa. The A’s are a young team that feeds off momentum, something that is clearly lacking during their east coast road trip.
As expected Gaudins solid season of last year and solid start to this year is getting a touch of realism this month, as he is finally coming back down to earth. He is a pitcher that lacks overpowering pitches and heavily relies on his command to get hitters out. However, this variable has clearly been lacking of late as he has walked 18 batters in his last 28 innings of work. This does not bode well when facing a Yankees lineup that will not go out of the strike zone. In the past, Gaudin was able to get out of the jams his walk total created by pitching well in the stretch, something that he just has not been able to do in recent outs. Guadin has also really struggled against left handed bats, especially of late. They have been hitting him hard, which has forced him to try to pitch around them- which is the catalyst to his near 2 WHIP against left handed hitters. Facing six left handed hitters today will certainly put Guadin in situations in which he has not shown to be comfortable in. In past starts, Guadin has been backed by a solid bullpen, which gave the A’s leverage in taking him out before things turn for the worse. However, with three key injuries, the A’s bullpen has now become a liability, and should allow this slumping Yankees lineup to have ideal scoring opportunities throughout this game.
An Undervalued Road Favorite
White Sox
Comment:
It appears that Thomson’s win last week as one of the biggest underdogs in the season has caught public attention and created value on the other side. Let’s not put too much stock into his first start where he caught the Angels just at the right time. This is still an injured riddled pitcher well past his prime, and was unable to get called up from Syracuse to fill in for an injured Blue Jays rotation prior to his release. He is still hampered by some nagging injuries, and is the same pitcher that allowed 40 runs in his last 50 innings of work for the Braves last season. In past years, Thomson had been able to put forth solid seasons with his ability to pitch effectively to left handed bats and overcome his deficiencies against the right handed hitters he faced. He did this with his challenge fastball, a pitcher that is no longer as effective with the decrease in his velocity. His struggles against right handers predominantly come from the spray hitters he faces, which should become a fundamental mismatch against this White Sox lineup. Thomson is also one of those rare veteran pitchers that has never pitched as effectively at home. In the past it was explained by the hitter’s parks of his home teams, something that could not be an excuse for his five plus home ERA last year, which is right around his career average. Thomson’s decreased inability to hold runners on should also prove detrimental against an aggressive White Sox team on the base paths. Simply put, don’t put too much stock in his first outing, and PECOTA is further evidence that he is a liability on the mound. Although he is backed by an underrated bullpen, it is a bullpen with pitchers who have struggled against the White Sox in the past. The White Sox slow start has been more of a cause of intangibles (underachieving, lack of confidence and momentum) than most teams that starts off slow (although a lot can be explained due to injury and lack of fundamentals). Winning four of their last five road games has built up some confidence in this team and it is starting to show on the field.
Although Garland is pitching a bit over his head once against this season, he is a pitcher that has been known to overachieve for long periods of time. He appears to be on an upward trend all season without showing any signs of regression. He has shown excellent command, has done a great job keeping the ball in the park, and has overpowered left handed hitters this season- all assets that should be magnified in this game. His command should be magnified due to working with one of the most generous strike zones in the league in today’s game. His ability to dominate left handed bats should be magnified by facing four left handed hitters thanks to the injuries (that have been flying under the radar) of veteran right handers in Sanders, Sweeney and Grudzilanek. Lastly, his ability to keep the ball in the park should be magnified by having to face a lineup that can struggle manufacturing runs, especially at home. Garlands ability to eat up innings should also pay big dividends, as the bullpen that will be backing him has been underachieving all season.
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An Undervalued Road Favorite
White Sox
Comment:
It appears that Thomson’s win last week as one of the biggest underdogs in the season has caught public attention and created value on the other side. Let’s not put too much stock into his first start where he caught the Angels just at the right time. This is still an injured riddled pitcher well past his prime, and was unable to get called up from Syracuse to fill in for an injured Blue Jays rotation prior to his release. He is still hampered by some nagging injuries, and is the same pitcher that allowed 40 runs in his last 50 innings of work for the Braves last season. In past years, Thomson had been able to put forth solid seasons with his ability to pitch effectively to left handed bats and overcome his deficiencies against the right handed hitters he faced. He did this with his challenge fastball, a pitcher that is no longer as effective with the decrease in his velocity. His struggles against right handers predominantly come from the spray hitters he faces, which should become a fundamental mismatch against this White Sox lineup. Thomson is also one of those rare veteran pitchers that has never pitched as effectively at home. In the past it was explained by the hitter’s parks of his home teams, something that could not be an excuse for his five plus home ERA last year, which is right around his career average. Thomson’s decreased inability to hold runners on should also prove detrimental against an aggressive White Sox team on the base paths. Simply put, don’t put too much stock in his first outing, and PECOTA is further evidence that he is a liability on the mound. Although he is backed by an underrated bullpen, it is a bullpen with pitchers who have struggled against the White Sox in the past. The White Sox slow start has been more of a cause of intangibles (underachieving, lack of confidence and momentum) than most teams that starts off slow (although a lot can be explained due to injury and lack of fundamentals). Winning four of their last five road games has built up some confidence in this team and it is starting to show on the field.
Although Garland is pitching a bit over his head once against this season, he is a pitcher that has been known to overachieve for long periods of time. He appears to be on an upward trend all season without showing any signs of regression. He has shown excellent command, has done a great job keeping the ball in the park, and has overpowered left handed hitters this season- all assets that should be magnified in this game. His command should be magnified due to working with one of the most generous strike zones in the league in today’s game. His ability to dominate left handed bats should be magnified by facing four left handed hitters thanks to the injuries (that have been flying under the radar) of veteran right handers in Sanders, Sweeney and Grudzilanek. Lastly, his ability to keep the ball in the park should be magnified by having to face a lineup that can struggle manufacturing runs, especially at home. Garlands ability to eat up innings should also pay big dividends, as the bullpen that will be backing him has been underachieving all season.
There is no doubt there is some value on the Twins at the current line. The question is whether it is enough value to warrant a play. Right now, it falls just short of my target price, so I will be laying off them, but can’t blame anyone for taking their chances with them.
Baker has now put forth two solid outings in a row and is finally showing his potential. More importantly, those starts were against two quality lineups. That said, I am not sure if he is ready for a road start on Sunday Night baseball against a Tigers lineup. There are just too many dangerous left handed bats to deal with for a young pitcher still trying to figure out how to pitch to hitters from the left side. The Tigers are tough to sweep at home, and I am not sure if Baker is the man to do the job. Bonderman is the team’s stopper, and thrives in games such as these, despite struggling in the past against the Twins.
The Tigers have the better chance of winning this game, but not as great of a chance that the line is trying to dictate.
Best of luck with your decision.
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There is no doubt there is some value on the Twins at the current line. The question is whether it is enough value to warrant a play. Right now, it falls just short of my target price, so I will be laying off them, but can’t blame anyone for taking their chances with them.
Baker has now put forth two solid outings in a row and is finally showing his potential. More importantly, those starts were against two quality lineups. That said, I am not sure if he is ready for a road start on Sunday Night baseball against a Tigers lineup. There are just too many dangerous left handed bats to deal with for a young pitcher still trying to figure out how to pitch to hitters from the left side. The Tigers are tough to sweep at home, and I am not sure if Baker is the man to do the job. Bonderman is the team’s stopper, and thrives in games such as these, despite struggling in the past against the Twins.
The Tigers have the better chance of winning this game, but not as great of a chance that the line is trying to dictate.
Best of luck with your decision.
An Undervalued Road Favorite
New York Mets
Comment:
The Rockies are a young team that thrives off of momentum more than most teams. When things are going well, they go really well. In June, they showed that they can group their young talent together and become a real force, as they went on a 13-3 run which included impressive series against the Red Sox and Yankees. However, with the good comes the bad, as the Rockies have recently shown that when things go bad, they become really bad, and manage to find ways to lose games that simply should not have been lost. Yesterday, this downward momentum really showed, as they simply did not show up to play that game, making it their 9th loss in their last ten games. Coming back home to play a team like the Mets might be the thing the Rockies need to get jump started again, however, until they are able to show they could put a halt to this pendulum quickly swinging the other way, I have no problem going against them.
The Mets once again might be the best road team in the National League, as they showed that to be the case in a hard fought weekend series against the Phillies. They have a good chance to carry that momentum forward, as they get to face a “raw talent” pitcher that has recently lost his command and confidence on the mound. In the beginning of the season, Hirsh showed what his big frame and live arm can do to hitters. However, some point along the way, he reverted back to the struggling pitcher of last year, as his strikeout rate took a sudden fall, while his walk rate has hit a dangerous level. During the last two months, he has walked a batter nearly every two innings, which is not a deficiency you want when you are unable to hold runners on and are up against a team as aggressive and fast on the base paths as the Mets are. Walks have not been Hirsh’s only problem of late, as his flyball tendencies have been magnified in recent starts due to his lack of command. This is not something you want when pitching in this park, and allowing seven home runs in the last 14 innings of work is enough evidence to assume something is simply not right with him. Being backed by an overworked and not terribly effective bullpen should allow the Mets to face hittable pitchers throughout this game and give Glavine some adequate run support.
Although Glavine’s numbers are a bit off from the last few years, they are a bit misleading, as they are skewed by two successive bad starts against veteran lineups that he did not match up well against. Those two starts aside, he is having yet again another solid season. He also seems to be pitching with a chip on his shoulder since his Yankees debacle, as he has allowed just one run in his last two outings combined. Although the Rockies have a talented lineup, it is a lineup that Glavine matches up well against, as he could take advantage of their youth and aggressive tendencies at the plate. They haven’t seen his stuff in nearly two years, and some of the integral parts of the lineup have struggled against him in the past, as Atkins (their hottest hitter), Holliday (their best hitter), and Taveras (their biggest catalyst), come into today’s game a combined 3 for 24 against him. Glavine is backed by the better bullpen, which should put pressure on the Rockies to take the lead when both starters are on the mound, or else their chances of winning this game diminishes significantly.
What to Make of the Yankees and their Line Movement
One of the biggest struggles some gamblers have is trying to decipher between price and value. Some make the mistake of automatically assuming that a high price (like the Yankees -190 today) has no value, while a big underdog always has value. That is not the case. With the way the Yankees have been playing of late, coupled with Clemens still not reaching form just yet, I could see someone make the case of that today. However, if this game were played three weeks ago, one would see at least 50 more cents added to the Yankees, and would surely be overvalued as usual. Has this drop off in price actually created value on the worst ROI team in baseball? Early money would say no, as the line quickly dropped from the open until returning back to their opening price. However, I say yes, as they get a tailor made match up for them to get a surprisingly hard to come by win. The Yankees get to face a struggling pitcher that they fundamentally match up well against (much better than the hottest pitcher in baseball that they got to in yesterday’s game). Bonser seems to be stuck between a rock and a hard place, as earlier in the season he was constantly going for the strike out. Although he averaged over a strike out an inning during both the first two months of the season, his walk rate and pitch count was too much of a detriment, and the Twins felt compelled to switch his style up a bit. In June, he has been pitching for contact more, which has reduced both his strikeout rate and walk rate, but has made him far more hittable than the Twins had imagined. Teams hit well over .300 against Bonser in June, which forced him to put forth a near seven ERA during that month. During his five starts in June, he was unable to put forth one quality start, which is concerning for a young pitcher that has shown he could do such at will, as he ended last season putting forth 8 of his last nine, and went a stretch this season putting forth seven of 8. So what can we expect out of Bonser tonight? Hard to say, but we can conclude that it will be a young struggling pitcher that seems lost on the mound right now.
An Interesting Series
Orioles @ White Sox
Most people are looking at this series as a boring one, as they conclude that it is between to bottom feeder teams. However, it is an interesting one in my eyes, as it involves two teams of similar makeup. Both teams have been underachieving all season and have been plagued by some marquee injuries. Both teams have built the foundation of their lineups around veteran players past their primes and young players that have yet to reach theirs. Both teams have talented but underachieving bullpens, while both lineups have deviated from fundamental consistency and are simply not playing situational baseball. So how do you handle a series like this? Expect the unexpected, but also expect the games to be priced inefficiently as both teams are hard to value right now. Although there exists more value in other games on today’s card, game 1 in my opinion is trading off of it’s fair value, as there is slight value on the White Sox.
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An Undervalued Road Favorite
New York Mets
Comment:
The Rockies are a young team that thrives off of momentum more than most teams. When things are going well, they go really well. In June, they showed that they can group their young talent together and become a real force, as they went on a 13-3 run which included impressive series against the Red Sox and Yankees. However, with the good comes the bad, as the Rockies have recently shown that when things go bad, they become really bad, and manage to find ways to lose games that simply should not have been lost. Yesterday, this downward momentum really showed, as they simply did not show up to play that game, making it their 9th loss in their last ten games. Coming back home to play a team like the Mets might be the thing the Rockies need to get jump started again, however, until they are able to show they could put a halt to this pendulum quickly swinging the other way, I have no problem going against them.
The Mets once again might be the best road team in the National League, as they showed that to be the case in a hard fought weekend series against the Phillies. They have a good chance to carry that momentum forward, as they get to face a “raw talent” pitcher that has recently lost his command and confidence on the mound. In the beginning of the season, Hirsh showed what his big frame and live arm can do to hitters. However, some point along the way, he reverted back to the struggling pitcher of last year, as his strikeout rate took a sudden fall, while his walk rate has hit a dangerous level. During the last two months, he has walked a batter nearly every two innings, which is not a deficiency you want when you are unable to hold runners on and are up against a team as aggressive and fast on the base paths as the Mets are. Walks have not been Hirsh’s only problem of late, as his flyball tendencies have been magnified in recent starts due to his lack of command. This is not something you want when pitching in this park, and allowing seven home runs in the last 14 innings of work is enough evidence to assume something is simply not right with him. Being backed by an overworked and not terribly effective bullpen should allow the Mets to face hittable pitchers throughout this game and give Glavine some adequate run support.
Although Glavine’s numbers are a bit off from the last few years, they are a bit misleading, as they are skewed by two successive bad starts against veteran lineups that he did not match up well against. Those two starts aside, he is having yet again another solid season. He also seems to be pitching with a chip on his shoulder since his Yankees debacle, as he has allowed just one run in his last two outings combined. Although the Rockies have a talented lineup, it is a lineup that Glavine matches up well against, as he could take advantage of their youth and aggressive tendencies at the plate. They haven’t seen his stuff in nearly two years, and some of the integral parts of the lineup have struggled against him in the past, as Atkins (their hottest hitter), Holliday (their best hitter), and Taveras (their biggest catalyst), come into today’s game a combined 3 for 24 against him. Glavine is backed by the better bullpen, which should put pressure on the Rockies to take the lead when both starters are on the mound, or else their chances of winning this game diminishes significantly.
What to Make of the Yankees and their Line Movement
One of the biggest struggles some gamblers have is trying to decipher between price and value. Some make the mistake of automatically assuming that a high price (like the Yankees -190 today) has no value, while a big underdog always has value. That is not the case. With the way the Yankees have been playing of late, coupled with Clemens still not reaching form just yet, I could see someone make the case of that today. However, if this game were played three weeks ago, one would see at least 50 more cents added to the Yankees, and would surely be overvalued as usual. Has this drop off in price actually created value on the worst ROI team in baseball? Early money would say no, as the line quickly dropped from the open until returning back to their opening price. However, I say yes, as they get a tailor made match up for them to get a surprisingly hard to come by win. The Yankees get to face a struggling pitcher that they fundamentally match up well against (much better than the hottest pitcher in baseball that they got to in yesterday’s game). Bonser seems to be stuck between a rock and a hard place, as earlier in the season he was constantly going for the strike out. Although he averaged over a strike out an inning during both the first two months of the season, his walk rate and pitch count was too much of a detriment, and the Twins felt compelled to switch his style up a bit. In June, he has been pitching for contact more, which has reduced both his strikeout rate and walk rate, but has made him far more hittable than the Twins had imagined. Teams hit well over .300 against Bonser in June, which forced him to put forth a near seven ERA during that month. During his five starts in June, he was unable to put forth one quality start, which is concerning for a young pitcher that has shown he could do such at will, as he ended last season putting forth 8 of his last nine, and went a stretch this season putting forth seven of 8. So what can we expect out of Bonser tonight? Hard to say, but we can conclude that it will be a young struggling pitcher that seems lost on the mound right now.
An Interesting Series
Orioles @ White Sox
Most people are looking at this series as a boring one, as they conclude that it is between to bottom feeder teams. However, it is an interesting one in my eyes, as it involves two teams of similar makeup. Both teams have been underachieving all season and have been plagued by some marquee injuries. Both teams have built the foundation of their lineups around veteran players past their primes and young players that have yet to reach theirs. Both teams have talented but underachieving bullpens, while both lineups have deviated from fundamental consistency and are simply not playing situational baseball. So how do you handle a series like this? Expect the unexpected, but also expect the games to be priced inefficiently as both teams are hard to value right now. Although there exists more value in other games on today’s card, game 1 in my opinion is trading off of it’s fair value, as there is slight value on the White Sox.
I valued the Diamondbacks at -128, so the game appears to be pretty efficiently priced. Webb is once again of the best pitchers in baseball, and has shown great consistency pitching on the road throughout his career. I would also not put too much stock into his past struggles against the Cardinals or in this park. He has faced the Cardinals just once during the last two seasons and pitching a complete game one hitter. His struggles in this park are simply randomness, as there is no fundamental reason to suggest otherwise. What I would be concerned about is his last start. Webb has been know to go in bouts of ineffectiveness that usually last two or three starts, and the sign of the onset of it happening is when he comes off a game of wildness. Despite not allowing a run in his last outing, he walked five and struck out only three in seven- both rare feats for him. Not sure what to make of it, but he has not responded well in past years after starts in which he has control issues. The start prior to last was also a bit concerning, but also misleading due to bad luck and defense. Nonetheless, proceed with caution.
Although the Dbacks bats have cooled off, it might be more of a product of the pitchers they faced than anything else. Not much of a fan of Looper, especially in the starting role coming off an injury. His sabermetric indicators show a pitcher far worse than his career ERA would lead you to believe, and his recent struggles may be more than a short term trend.
That said, still not enough value for me to bet on the Dbacks as I wouldn’t touch them unless I can get -115 or better. Line moving down a bit, but not sure if it hits my target.
As far as the A’s game, I did not derive a value, as I am still not sure what to make of DiNardo.
Best of luck.
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I valued the Diamondbacks at -128, so the game appears to be pretty efficiently priced. Webb is once again of the best pitchers in baseball, and has shown great consistency pitching on the road throughout his career. I would also not put too much stock into his past struggles against the Cardinals or in this park. He has faced the Cardinals just once during the last two seasons and pitching a complete game one hitter. His struggles in this park are simply randomness, as there is no fundamental reason to suggest otherwise. What I would be concerned about is his last start. Webb has been know to go in bouts of ineffectiveness that usually last two or three starts, and the sign of the onset of it happening is when he comes off a game of wildness. Despite not allowing a run in his last outing, he walked five and struck out only three in seven- both rare feats for him. Not sure what to make of it, but he has not responded well in past years after starts in which he has control issues. The start prior to last was also a bit concerning, but also misleading due to bad luck and defense. Nonetheless, proceed with caution.
Although the Dbacks bats have cooled off, it might be more of a product of the pitchers they faced than anything else. Not much of a fan of Looper, especially in the starting role coming off an injury. His sabermetric indicators show a pitcher far worse than his career ERA would lead you to believe, and his recent struggles may be more than a short term trend.
That said, still not enough value for me to bet on the Dbacks as I wouldn’t touch them unless I can get -115 or better. Line moving down a bit, but not sure if it hits my target.
As far as the A’s game, I did not derive a value, as I am still not sure what to make of DiNardo.
Best of luck.
Mets
It is not often in which you see a popular public team like the Mets priced this undervalued. However, after losing four straight games in dominant fashion, showing signs that the four game series in Philadelphia and today being their eighth road game in seven days may potentially be taking some air out of the team- and you have some people temporally parking their money elsewhere. Although its hard to imagine Maine keeping his current pitching dominance sustained, timing his regression may prove costly, as he has yet to show any signs of a slowdown, and has actually improved his biggest weakness of walking a high rate of batters in recent starts, walking just four batters in his last six outings, and posting a 27/4 K:BB ratio since the beginning of June. During the last two years, Maine has produced one of the best OBA in the league, making his improved walk rate that much more of an asset, as teams putting hitters on base has been hard to come by. Maine’s ground ball ratio has also improved in recent starts, an overlooked asset when pitching in a park like Houston’s. He has shown no ill-effect some young pitchers show when pitching on the road, as this is the second straight year where his road WHIP remains under 1.10. His slider and improved fastball are quickly becoming plus pitches in which most scouts have claimed he lacked, a big reason for predicted future regression. Maine’s dominated no team more than the Astros last year, as his two starts against them produced 15 innings, six hits and just two runs. His ability to overpower right handed hitters will put pressure on the lack talent the Astros bring from the left side. Maine has gone at least seven innings in his last three outings, and is backed by a top tier bullpen that did a good job conserving their better arms in last night’s debacle. Despite improving in recent series, Astros lines have more than caught up to their improvement. Their current 5-2 home stand could easily be a 2-5 one if it were not for their 9th inning come from behind wins, something that will be hard to due against Wagner.
Jennings is a solid pitcher (quietly putting forth a solid season) that usually trades for below his worth. However, the market may have caught up to his abilities and knowing that past year’s numbers may have been inflated by Coors (although Minute Maid is not much friendly to a home pitcher). That said, he too is prone to some regression, as the month of June was not terribly effective for him, and his current numbers against left handed hitters are well below his norm and abnormally efficient for a typical sinkerball pitcher. The Mets have the talent from the left side that often pose match up problems for a sinkerball pitcher, and having faced two right handed sinkerball pitchers in the last two games will make Jennings style far from a novelty. His inability to go deep into games this year (5.8 innings per start) is a detriment for an Astros team whose bullpen is struggling, injured and underachieving. Their bullpen also lacks a talented southpaw to counter the talent of the Mets left handed hitters. The Mets continue to be one of the best hitting road teams, and their power that is often diluted by their home park confines can be magnified in a park such as this.
Cardinals
Wainwright is slowly readjusting back to the starting role, and in the month of June showed his talent and true worth, posting an ERA of under 4 during that stretch. During the month, Wainwright’s plus curveball has significantly improved, while his improved groundball rate shows he is better locating his pitches and potentially less prone to the long ball that has been bothering him this season. His minor setback in his last start may also be a bit misleading, as three of this five runs came in the sixth inning in which he was squeezed, the culprit of him walking in a run, hitting a batter that forced in a run and the sac fly that was a product of his walks. Wainwright gets an ideal match up today, as he faces a young team not terribly potent against the off-speed pitch and high velocity disparity in which Wainwright has. The Diamondbacks are quietly losing that momentum and confidence that has helped them overachieve this season, as losing four of their last five, and scoring four or less in six of their last seven has put a halt to their division title bid. Backed by a solid bullpen should make it hard for a slumping Diamondbacks lineup to score throughout this game. The Diamondbacks are once again hitting more productively at home this season, and have just two starters coming into today’s game with a batting average of over .260 on the road.
As expected, the evident regression that Davis was prone to last month has come, as no pitcher that has been walking as many batters as he has could keep the numbers he was keeping sustained for long periods of time. That said, he is still prone to some more regression as his control continues to fail, as he is coming of a six walk allowed game, and is getting progressively easier to get hits off. Davis has a bad combination of walking hitters and lacking an overpowering pitch to make up for a high walk total. His six plus June ERA and 2 plus June WHIP is alarming and not deficiencies you want when facing a team that you have struggled against throughout your career. Although the Cardinals are not terribly effective against left handed pitching, they are more vulnerable against the power southpaws (which Davis is not), have a couple role players in Molina, Spezio (who should be available today) and Taguchi hitting them well, while the heart of the lineup has had success against Davis throughout his career. Although the Cardinals lack the ideal patience to take advantage of Davis’s walk propensity, they make the most of their free passes with their productive outs. The Cardinals have been hitting much better during the last month. No other team in baseball is more dependent on a hitter like the Cardinals are with Pujols, who is hitting over .500 in his last two series.
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Mets
It is not often in which you see a popular public team like the Mets priced this undervalued. However, after losing four straight games in dominant fashion, showing signs that the four game series in Philadelphia and today being their eighth road game in seven days may potentially be taking some air out of the team- and you have some people temporally parking their money elsewhere. Although its hard to imagine Maine keeping his current pitching dominance sustained, timing his regression may prove costly, as he has yet to show any signs of a slowdown, and has actually improved his biggest weakness of walking a high rate of batters in recent starts, walking just four batters in his last six outings, and posting a 27/4 K:BB ratio since the beginning of June. During the last two years, Maine has produced one of the best OBA in the league, making his improved walk rate that much more of an asset, as teams putting hitters on base has been hard to come by. Maine’s ground ball ratio has also improved in recent starts, an overlooked asset when pitching in a park like Houston’s. He has shown no ill-effect some young pitchers show when pitching on the road, as this is the second straight year where his road WHIP remains under 1.10. His slider and improved fastball are quickly becoming plus pitches in which most scouts have claimed he lacked, a big reason for predicted future regression. Maine’s dominated no team more than the Astros last year, as his two starts against them produced 15 innings, six hits and just two runs. His ability to overpower right handed hitters will put pressure on the lack talent the Astros bring from the left side. Maine has gone at least seven innings in his last three outings, and is backed by a top tier bullpen that did a good job conserving their better arms in last night’s debacle. Despite improving in recent series, Astros lines have more than caught up to their improvement. Their current 5-2 home stand could easily be a 2-5 one if it were not for their 9th inning come from behind wins, something that will be hard to due against Wagner.
Jennings is a solid pitcher (quietly putting forth a solid season) that usually trades for below his worth. However, the market may have caught up to his abilities and knowing that past year’s numbers may have been inflated by Coors (although Minute Maid is not much friendly to a home pitcher). That said, he too is prone to some regression, as the month of June was not terribly effective for him, and his current numbers against left handed hitters are well below his norm and abnormally efficient for a typical sinkerball pitcher. The Mets have the talent from the left side that often pose match up problems for a sinkerball pitcher, and having faced two right handed sinkerball pitchers in the last two games will make Jennings style far from a novelty. His inability to go deep into games this year (5.8 innings per start) is a detriment for an Astros team whose bullpen is struggling, injured and underachieving. Their bullpen also lacks a talented southpaw to counter the talent of the Mets left handed hitters. The Mets continue to be one of the best hitting road teams, and their power that is often diluted by their home park confines can be magnified in a park such as this.
Cardinals
Wainwright is slowly readjusting back to the starting role, and in the month of June showed his talent and true worth, posting an ERA of under 4 during that stretch. During the month, Wainwright’s plus curveball has significantly improved, while his improved groundball rate shows he is better locating his pitches and potentially less prone to the long ball that has been bothering him this season. His minor setback in his last start may also be a bit misleading, as three of this five runs came in the sixth inning in which he was squeezed, the culprit of him walking in a run, hitting a batter that forced in a run and the sac fly that was a product of his walks. Wainwright gets an ideal match up today, as he faces a young team not terribly potent against the off-speed pitch and high velocity disparity in which Wainwright has. The Diamondbacks are quietly losing that momentum and confidence that has helped them overachieve this season, as losing four of their last five, and scoring four or less in six of their last seven has put a halt to their division title bid. Backed by a solid bullpen should make it hard for a slumping Diamondbacks lineup to score throughout this game. The Diamondbacks are once again hitting more productively at home this season, and have just two starters coming into today’s game with a batting average of over .260 on the road.
As expected, the evident regression that Davis was prone to last month has come, as no pitcher that has been walking as many batters as he has could keep the numbers he was keeping sustained for long periods of time. That said, he is still prone to some more regression as his control continues to fail, as he is coming of a six walk allowed game, and is getting progressively easier to get hits off. Davis has a bad combination of walking hitters and lacking an overpowering pitch to make up for a high walk total. His six plus June ERA and 2 plus June WHIP is alarming and not deficiencies you want when facing a team that you have struggled against throughout your career. Although the Cardinals are not terribly effective against left handed pitching, they are more vulnerable against the power southpaws (which Davis is not), have a couple role players in Molina, Spezio (who should be available today) and Taguchi hitting them well, while the heart of the lineup has had success against Davis throughout his career. Although the Cardinals lack the ideal patience to take advantage of Davis’s walk propensity, they make the most of their free passes with their productive outs. The Cardinals have been hitting much better during the last month. No other team in baseball is more dependent on a hitter like the Cardinals are with Pujols, who is hitting over .500 in his last two series.
I feel that three important variables needed to be a LONG TERM successful handicapper in baseball is having deep understanding of the game, a solid mathematical foundation, and an understanding of gambling/handicapping.
As far as knowing about pitch types and their effectiveness, I get it in two places. One is I watch as much baseball as possible. I enjoy it, and feel if you watch it in the right frame of mind (as a handicapper) you could pick up on variables not reflected in lines. I also subscribe to a few scouting (some are expensive and out of the realm for most) and in depth baseball sites that allow me to look beyond the conventional numbers. A starting point is Sabermetrics.
As far as other posters, there are some bright minds and handicappers on a lot of forums including this one. I enjoy others insights, but no one has a material change in the intrinsic values I employ (which is essentially what it boils down to for a rational handicappers).
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I feel that three important variables needed to be a LONG TERM successful handicapper in baseball is having deep understanding of the game, a solid mathematical foundation, and an understanding of gambling/handicapping.
As far as knowing about pitch types and their effectiveness, I get it in two places. One is I watch as much baseball as possible. I enjoy it, and feel if you watch it in the right frame of mind (as a handicapper) you could pick up on variables not reflected in lines. I also subscribe to a few scouting (some are expensive and out of the realm for most) and in depth baseball sites that allow me to look beyond the conventional numbers. A starting point is Sabermetrics.
As far as other posters, there are some bright minds and handicappers on a lot of forums including this one. I enjoy others insights, but no one has a material change in the intrinsic values I employ (which is essentially what it boils down to for a rational handicappers).
2 Undervalued “Public Darlings”New York Yankees (-154)
It isn’t often that you see the Yankees trade below their fundamental worth, but it is not terribly surprising that they are in today’s game. The Yankees have been carrying the worst ROI in baseball for 2 months now, have their best hitter slumping and a question mark for today’s game, are sending an aging pitcher that may have put forth his worst start in his career in his last outing, and are up against one of the most overachieving (and overvalued) teams in baseball that have beat them 12 of their last 17 meetings. So do they warrant laying this many basis points with this many shortfalls and against the team with the second best record in baseball? In my opinion, yes. In general, injuries to marquee players like ARod are usually over-quantified. This should hold especially true in ARod’s circumstance as he is currently in a 0 for 19 slump, and has not hit a home run in 14 games. Secondly, the line adjustment for his status is over quantified two fold(no longer due to the line movement on the Yankees), as he is more than likely to play this game, a game that is tailor made for him to break out of his slump, as he has thoroughly dominated Colon throughout his career. After starting the season promising, Colon has regressed to the liability he was on the mound last year. He has now put forth two straight months with six plus ERA’s and an increased walk and home run rate. Although he has put forth two straight quality starts from a definition standpoint, they were far from quality in reality. Colon was only able to go six innings against two sub par lineups in the Orioles and Pirates, yet still managed to allow double digit base runners in both. He was hit hard in both games. Going up against a team that dominated him in past years when he was on top of his game should put that quality start streak to an end. Along with ARod, Damon, Jeter and Matsui have dominated him. This should force him into the stretch more than ideally suitable, a situation in which he has struggled pitching in this year, as opponents are hitting .330 against him in this spot. Colon’s lack of productivity on the road is alarming. Despite being backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen who is top heavy, as they lack the depth most elite bullpens have. This is not ideal with Colon on the mound, who is not a likely candidate to work deep into this game. The Yankees are starting to play better at home, and have scored at least five in four of their last five games.
As much as this is a play against Colon, this is a play on Pettitte, a pitcher coming off arguably his worst start of his career, and a pitcher that has proven to be one of the better bounce back starters in the league in seasons past. He has an ideal match up to bounce back yet again, as he has the strengths to counter the Angels assets. Pitching only 42 pitches in his last start, he should come into today’s game fresh and should be able to work deep into this game and avoid a suspect bullpen right now. His finesse style takes advantage of the youth and aggressive tendencies the Angels lineup provides. Having the best pick-off move in baseball should counter the aggressive tendencies the Angels have on the base paths. The Angels bats have clearly cooled down in recent series, and just have not been able to play with the same intensity in their road games, which has shown in their lack of productivity. Although Guerrero and Anderson have shown some success against Pettitte in the past, they have yet to see him in over four years, and may take a go-around to adjust to his style. Pettitte is rare veteran pitcher that still possesses a distinct disparity between home and away numbers, and prior to his last outing had gone at least seven strong in his last four home starts. Expect him to bounce back strong and make it hard for a cooling Angels lineup to provide the adequate run support Colon’s current pitching form demands.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (Holliday) (-144)
Holliday has consistently been one of the over-bet pitchers in baseball. Despite being able to produce profits while carrying over- priced lines past seasons, his lines have finally caught up to him this season. Rarely is he a pitcher deemed undervalued, but like the Yankees, it is not surprising he is in today’s game. “Public” bettors are no longer blindly backing Holliday, as they have been more price sensitive with him during his underachieving and injury plagued season. Coming off yet another disappointing start as a road favorite and going up against a constantly heavily backed team like the Indians, and Holliday is finally trading at a price that warrants a play in my opinion. Despite his downfalls this season, Holliday has been pitching well at home, and his style of pitching fundamentally matches up with the Indians style of hitting. It is no surprise that he has had past success against them, including a dominating performance late last season. Holliday is one of the harder right handed pitchers for left handed hitters to go deep against, which should curtail the lineup with the most pop from the left side. Past domination against Blake, Hafner and Siezemore should put more pressure on slumping role players in the likes of Garko, Perralta and Nixon. Being able to work deep into games and backed by one of the more underrated pens in baseball should make it hard for Indians lineup to produce up to their standards. Winning 9 of their last 13, and allowing their unsustainable record to be sustained that much longer was done with smoke and mirrors, as beating the Nationals, and the A’s and Drays at home leaves a lot to be desired. Finally tested against Detroit, they lost their fourth road series in their last five, and their second straight against a quality team.
This is a series in which home field is worth more than the conventional 20, as not only is Holliday and the Indians shown a distinct home preference, but the same could always be said for the Blue Jays bats. Although Lee has shown signs of getting things back on track in his last three outings, those starts may be deceiving. Those three starts were against an inferior A’s lineup, a struggling Devil Rays lineup, and a Phillies lineup not terribly potent against finesse southpaws. During that span, his fly ball ratio has increase, while his Delta H has gone from positive to negatives, indications of not only good match ups for him but also a product of having good luck. A reality check is a strong possibility in today’s game, going up against one of the more potent lineups in the league against southpaws, and a team with past success against him. Lee’s struggles on the road have continued this year, where he carries an increase home run rate, walk rate, ERA, Whip, and a decreased strikeout rate. Backed by a tired and sub par bullpen should allow the Blue Jays to have scoring opportunities throughout this game. Unlike the Indians soft schedule of late, the Blue Jays struggles may be miss diagnosed, as playing three series against solid pitching staffs can slowdown any lineup. Returning back home where they have won four of their last five, and scored 8.2 runs in that span should allow them to make a bid back to .500.
0
2 Undervalued “Public Darlings”New York Yankees (-154)
It isn’t often that you see the Yankees trade below their fundamental worth, but it is not terribly surprising that they are in today’s game. The Yankees have been carrying the worst ROI in baseball for 2 months now, have their best hitter slumping and a question mark for today’s game, are sending an aging pitcher that may have put forth his worst start in his career in his last outing, and are up against one of the most overachieving (and overvalued) teams in baseball that have beat them 12 of their last 17 meetings. So do they warrant laying this many basis points with this many shortfalls and against the team with the second best record in baseball? In my opinion, yes. In general, injuries to marquee players like ARod are usually over-quantified. This should hold especially true in ARod’s circumstance as he is currently in a 0 for 19 slump, and has not hit a home run in 14 games. Secondly, the line adjustment for his status is over quantified two fold(no longer due to the line movement on the Yankees), as he is more than likely to play this game, a game that is tailor made for him to break out of his slump, as he has thoroughly dominated Colon throughout his career. After starting the season promising, Colon has regressed to the liability he was on the mound last year. He has now put forth two straight months with six plus ERA’s and an increased walk and home run rate. Although he has put forth two straight quality starts from a definition standpoint, they were far from quality in reality. Colon was only able to go six innings against two sub par lineups in the Orioles and Pirates, yet still managed to allow double digit base runners in both. He was hit hard in both games. Going up against a team that dominated him in past years when he was on top of his game should put that quality start streak to an end. Along with ARod, Damon, Jeter and Matsui have dominated him. This should force him into the stretch more than ideally suitable, a situation in which he has struggled pitching in this year, as opponents are hitting .330 against him in this spot. Colon’s lack of productivity on the road is alarming. Despite being backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen who is top heavy, as they lack the depth most elite bullpens have. This is not ideal with Colon on the mound, who is not a likely candidate to work deep into this game. The Yankees are starting to play better at home, and have scored at least five in four of their last five games.
As much as this is a play against Colon, this is a play on Pettitte, a pitcher coming off arguably his worst start of his career, and a pitcher that has proven to be one of the better bounce back starters in the league in seasons past. He has an ideal match up to bounce back yet again, as he has the strengths to counter the Angels assets. Pitching only 42 pitches in his last start, he should come into today’s game fresh and should be able to work deep into this game and avoid a suspect bullpen right now. His finesse style takes advantage of the youth and aggressive tendencies the Angels lineup provides. Having the best pick-off move in baseball should counter the aggressive tendencies the Angels have on the base paths. The Angels bats have clearly cooled down in recent series, and just have not been able to play with the same intensity in their road games, which has shown in their lack of productivity. Although Guerrero and Anderson have shown some success against Pettitte in the past, they have yet to see him in over four years, and may take a go-around to adjust to his style. Pettitte is rare veteran pitcher that still possesses a distinct disparity between home and away numbers, and prior to his last outing had gone at least seven strong in his last four home starts. Expect him to bounce back strong and make it hard for a cooling Angels lineup to provide the adequate run support Colon’s current pitching form demands.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (Holliday) (-144)
Holliday has consistently been one of the over-bet pitchers in baseball. Despite being able to produce profits while carrying over- priced lines past seasons, his lines have finally caught up to him this season. Rarely is he a pitcher deemed undervalued, but like the Yankees, it is not surprising he is in today’s game. “Public” bettors are no longer blindly backing Holliday, as they have been more price sensitive with him during his underachieving and injury plagued season. Coming off yet another disappointing start as a road favorite and going up against a constantly heavily backed team like the Indians, and Holliday is finally trading at a price that warrants a play in my opinion. Despite his downfalls this season, Holliday has been pitching well at home, and his style of pitching fundamentally matches up with the Indians style of hitting. It is no surprise that he has had past success against them, including a dominating performance late last season. Holliday is one of the harder right handed pitchers for left handed hitters to go deep against, which should curtail the lineup with the most pop from the left side. Past domination against Blake, Hafner and Siezemore should put more pressure on slumping role players in the likes of Garko, Perralta and Nixon. Being able to work deep into games and backed by one of the more underrated pens in baseball should make it hard for Indians lineup to produce up to their standards. Winning 9 of their last 13, and allowing their unsustainable record to be sustained that much longer was done with smoke and mirrors, as beating the Nationals, and the A’s and Drays at home leaves a lot to be desired. Finally tested against Detroit, they lost their fourth road series in their last five, and their second straight against a quality team.
This is a series in which home field is worth more than the conventional 20, as not only is Holliday and the Indians shown a distinct home preference, but the same could always be said for the Blue Jays bats. Although Lee has shown signs of getting things back on track in his last three outings, those starts may be deceiving. Those three starts were against an inferior A’s lineup, a struggling Devil Rays lineup, and a Phillies lineup not terribly potent against finesse southpaws. During that span, his fly ball ratio has increase, while his Delta H has gone from positive to negatives, indications of not only good match ups for him but also a product of having good luck. A reality check is a strong possibility in today’s game, going up against one of the more potent lineups in the league against southpaws, and a team with past success against him. Lee’s struggles on the road have continued this year, where he carries an increase home run rate, walk rate, ERA, Whip, and a decreased strikeout rate. Backed by a tired and sub par bullpen should allow the Blue Jays to have scoring opportunities throughout this game. Unlike the Indians soft schedule of late, the Blue Jays struggles may be miss diagnosed, as playing three series against solid pitching staffs can slowdown any lineup. Returning back home where they have won four of their last five, and scored 8.2 runs in that span should allow them to make a bid back to .500.
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