MLB 2007

Vanzack, Good questions. If I chose to do so, I could write 10 pages on the derivation of my valuation of a particular team based on the quantitative power ratings, sabermetric variables, and regression analytics that all go into valuing a team. However, that would be too time consuming, out of the realm of this forum, and probably extremely boring for 99% of people here. So I chose to write up “surface capping” variables that are easier to understand and are more beneficial for readers here. As far as your Twins example, if they were trading for +140, I would do a write up on them and include favorable variables on their behalf that I feel are not fully quantified in the market price (i.e, the substantial disparity amongst respective bullpens) My handicapping approach is strictly a value approach. Winning % means nothing to me. ROI means everything. My write ups are merely a “layman” addition to compliment the “intrinsic value” (which is by far the most important part of my posts) that is derived by 8 pages of excess quantification tools that will put people to sleep.

As far as the disparities in margin of safeties: The disparities in margin of safeties help take in account for more of the intangible variables and harder to quantify tangible that effect the outcome of particular game. Examples are current form, momentum, weather, and umps. I try to keep the valuation of the intrinsic value as correlated to fundamentals as possible to not alter back testing, and find it more prudent to simply adjust the margin of safety for the variables aforementioned.

Indians @ Orioles Play: Orioles -114 Intrinsic Value: -129 Consider Betting Price: -114 Comment: There is no denying that the Indians are hot right now. But usually hot teams are overvalued teams, which is the case in this game. Bedard is quickly becoming out of favor, as three straight sub par outings has forced the public to shy away from him. However, he simply has too much good stuff to underachieve for long periods of time, and his high strike out rate during that stretch implies he still has the ability to fool hitters. He is also a much more effective pitcher at home, and has had solid success against the Indians throughout his career. He was one of the best home pitchers in baseball last year, and dominated left handed hitting, which does not bode well for a lineup loaded from the left side. He has had past success against a few key hitters in the lineup, and was able to strike out eleven of their hitters in his last start. He is backed by a solid, well rested bullpen that is much better than their counterparts. Byrd will more than likely be unable to sustain this ERA, and his Whip and well hit ratio indicates such. Hitters have managed a .300 average against him this year, and sooner or later that will result in runs. Byrd has not had much success against this Orioles lineup in past years. His inability to pitch to left handed hitters could be a problem facing a lineup more than likely throwing five left handers at him. He is backed by a tired and not terribly talented bullpen. Dodgers @ Braves Play: Braves -149 Intrinsic Value: -190 Consider Betting Price: -173 Comment: I am surprised to see a popular team like the Braves trade for such a cheap price with Smoltz on the mound, but it appears are neglecting to account for Tomko consistently being one of the worst road pitchers in baseball throughout his career. Tomko consistently has put forth a high disparity of productivity when comparing his performances on the road and at home. He comes into today’s game with a career road ERA well over five, including horrific starts in this park, as he has allowed over a run an inning here. The Braves have dominated him throughout his career, and have a few hitters that fundamentally match up well with his pitching style. He has not been pitching as well as his ERA would indicate, as his WHIP is at dangerous levels, and has allowed a lot of well hit outs. The Dodgers front end bullpen is not terribly strong, and Tomko is not expected to go deep into this game. The Braves have one of the hottest lineups in baseball, and have always hit the ball well at home. This is a good spot for Smoltz to bounce back from two straight outings in which he appeared to be very hittable. He seems to be getting progressively less effective pitching on the road as years go by, but continues to be rock solid in his home starts. This is his first home start in four starts, and is against a team that he has always had success against. Being one of the smartest pitchers in baseball, Smoltz always prefers pitching against lineups with veteran hitters in which he has a deep past history against, which is a variable that is in his favor in tonight’s game. It also happens to be a veteran lineup in which he has had past success against their hitters. Although the Braves bullpen is not as deep with Wickman on the DL, they have now become more reliable in the 9th inning. Smoltz is one of the best pitchers in going deep into game, countering the decrease in depth. The Dodgers lineup has not been hitting in the clutch in recent games, and have been struggling to score runs against mediocre pitching. They are not as dangerous on the road either. Pirates @ Brewers Play: Pirates +150 Intrinsic Value: +104 Consider Betting Price: +124 Comment: There might not be a “sexier” team in baseball right now for the public than the Brewers, as they really have a lot of people jumping on their bandwagon, allow value to be created on the other side. There is no fundamental reason for this game to be trading where it is, and it is purely a popularity contest. Vargas is off to a solid start this year, however, has only started one home game all year. Unlike most pitchers, Vargas has consistently been much worse pitching at home throughout his career. His career home ERA is an astonishing 5.59 as opposed to his road ERA in the low fours. He has also been allowing a lot of base runners, and has had some good luck on his side, getting out of a lot of bases loaded jams that will sooner or later catch up with him. Although he comes into today’s game with some impressive career numbers against the Pirates, they may lack sustainability, as he has struggled against a couple of key hitters and doesn’t necessarily match up well against this lineup as a whole. Vargas is not known to eat up innings, and is backed by a front end bullpen that has been overachieving of late. This may be a good bounce back opportunity for Maholm, as he matches up well against this aggressive Brewers lineup. His finesse style of pitching could really take advantage of their lack of patience at the plate. He has put forth solid starts against the Brewers in the past, and has dominated left handed hitting throughout his young career, which is also a big asset against this lineup. He has had past success against a few key hitters, as Fielder, Hall and Weeks come into today’s game a combined 1 for 21, while Jenkins has yet to play a game in which he has started. He is backed by an underrated bullpen. The Brewers lineup has slowed down a bit in the last couple of games, scoring just six runs in that time frame.

Tigers @ Royals Play: Tigers -152 Intrinsic Value: -184 Consider Betting Price: -160 Comment: It is not often that you will see a pitcher like Verlander undervalued against a team like the Royals, but it appears that two straight underdog home wins for the Royals has some created some public backing, as there has been a downward trend in price for the Tigers since the open. There hasn’t been a team in the league in which Verlander has had more success pitching against, as he comes into today’s game with a career 1.36 ERA and .171 OBA against the Royals. Throwing just 79 pitches in his last start should allow him to come into today’s game with a fresh arm. It is no surprise that he has dominated a few of their hitters in the limited at bats that he has faced them, and is a young pitcher that has not shown any concern pitching on the road. Being backed by the superior bullpen should give the Tigers a decisive advantage later in the game as well. Although injuries have plagued his young career, Bannister has the potential to be a solid pitcher in the league. However, potential doesn’t necessarily cut it at the present, and his lack of command and consistency can make him a real liability on the mound. Bannister has yet to learn how to pitch effectively to left handed hitters, which is not a deficiency you want when facing a lineup this dangerous from the left side. He also has the propensity to accumulate a high pitch count early in games, which is not a deficiency you want when being backed by the worst bullpen in baseball. Being prone to a high walk total is not something you want going up against a lineup that can score in bunches. The Tigers are also a dangerous road team, as they have been more productive hitting on the road on a three year aggregate level, and have a pitcher that has shown no preference pitching at home or on the road with Verlander. Red Sox @ Twins Play: Twins +110 Intrinsic Value: -152 Consider Betting Price: -137 Comment: Once again the Red Sox are much overvalued, and are much less dangerous team on the road. This is a series in which home field advantage is magnified, as both teams are much more dangerous at home. The Twins have given the Red Sox problems in the past as well, winning seven of their last nine against them, including sweeping them at home last year. Wakefield’s knuckleball has been working well for him so far this year, but could implode without a moments notice. He did not appear to have a good feeling for the knuckle ball in his last start, where he walked six, which could be a sign of things to come. The Twins have a lineup filled with hitters that have not shown to have problems with this type of pitch. There also exists two hitters that have dominated Wakefield in the past. The Red Sox bullpen has been pitching well, but has been overachieving. The loss of Timlin should hurt their depth, which is concerning with Wakefield on the mound. Silva seems to have bounced back well from last years woes, and is looking more and more like the pitcher of 05, where he quietly put up a dominating season. He has always been more effective pitching at home, and this year is no exception, as he comes into today’s game with a home ERA of 2.31. This appears to be a good opportunity for him to continue his upward trend, as he has dominated the Red Sox in his career, putting forth an ERA of 1.80 against them. He has had past success against a few of their hitters, including Manny, who is hitless in nine at bats, which bodes well, as he is starting to swing the bat well. Being backed by the best bullpen in baseball that rested their best pitchers in yesterday’s game should make it hard for the Red Sox to score throughout this game. The Red Sox have never been nearly as potent of a lineup away from home. Mets @ Diamdondbacks Play: Mets -115 Intrinsic Value: -137 Consider Betting Price: -119 Comment: I was actually expecting to get more value on the Mets in this game, but it appears that the public is quickly backing off of RJ. RJ is simply not the same pitcher he once was, and never will be. His velocity is down and command has gotten worse, and is no longer intimidating hitters on the mound. He is also not dominating left handed hitters like he used to, which does not bode well for his chances going up against this Mets lineup. This is also a lineup filled with hitters who have hit RJ well when he was a much more effective pitcher. Alou, Beltran, LoDucca, Reyes, and Wright have all hit him well in the past, which may simply be overwhelming for RJ at this point and time. The Mets are a more dangerous hitting team away from home, and are built well for this park. They should also overmatch the Dbacks bullpen who they match up well against. Maine is no longer flying under the radar, but continues to come with some value. He is once again putting forth a really impressive season, as he comes into today’s game with a 1.35 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05. He has been nearly unhittable, and his only minor problem has been his lack of command at times, which is a deficiency that should be helped out by the lack of patience the Dbacks possess at the plate. He has dominated both right and left handed hitters, and has been the best road pitcher in baseball so far year to date, allowing only two runs in over 20 innings of work. Being backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball should make it hard for the Dbacks to score throughout this game.

Phillies @ Giants Play: Giants +106 Intrinsic Value: -129 Consider Betting Price: -116 Comment: Although I feel that Morris is past his prime and has been overachieving a bit this year, he is still coming with some value in this game. What he continues to do consistently even in the latter stages of his career is put forth solid outings at home. Even during last years disappointing season, he was able to be a solid home pitcher, and this year appears to be the same thing, as he comes into today’s game with a home ERA in the one’s. Morris is also a pitcher that has not shown much of a difference pitching to left handed hitters as opposed to right handed hitters, which is an asset going up against a left handed dominated lineup. Morris has also dominated Rollins, who is currently the catalyst of their offense. This park also curtails the effect of the Phillies greatest asset, their power. Morris is one of the better pitchers in going deep into games, which is a big asset, as the Giants front end got a lot of work in yesterday’s game. It seems like the public is getting a bit carried away with Moyer’s fast start, as he is just not going to become this much better at age 44. We are still dealing with a pitcher that has put forth a road ERA of 4.88 or higher in each of the past three years. He is also a pitcher that matches up better against the younger and less patient lineups in the league, which is simply not what he is going to face going up against this veteran Giants lineup. The Giants one and two hitters have owned Moyer, which should force him to pitch from the stretch against the heart of their lineup. Moyer is also a pitcher heavily dependent on the home plate umpires strike zone, as simply does not have the stuff to challenge hitters with. This does not bode well for his chances, as he is up against a small strike zone. If the Phillies have the lead in the 9th inning, they will once again be without their closer.

I may add later. Phillies @ Giants Play: Giants -106 Intrinsic Value: -125 Consider Betting Price: -112 Comment: What do you get when you put one of the most undervalued home pitchers in baseball up against a public favorite team being backed by an overachieving pitcher? Value. Although I have seen Lowry come with much more value in his home starts, he is still being priced below his worth. He has rebounded well from his injury plagued season of last year, and continues to put forth his best work at home, where he comes into today’s game with a 2.84 home ERA. He has been one of the best home pitchers in baseball over the last three years, as his career home ERA is 3.24, as the park compliments his fly ball pitching style. Most of Lowry’s success this year has been a product of being able to dominate left handed bats. Left handed hitters are batting just .107 against him, which does not bode well for the Phillies chances, as their most dangerous hitters bat from the left side. Lowry’s career numbers against the Phillies are inflated from one horrible road start against them. There is only one hitter in today’s lineup with at least ten at bats against him. He is a workhorse that could avoid a front end of a bullpen. It is only a matter of time until Leiber reverts to the pitcher he is- very mediocre. His career is in a downward trend, making it only a matter of time until he comes back to earth. Last week may be a sign of things to come, as he really struggled with his control, walling seven batters. Not many pitchers last as long as he has while struggling so much against left handed hitters throughout his career, as they are batting .309 lifetime against him. This does not bode well for his chances, as the Giants may throw five left handed bats at him in this game. There are a few hitters that should be in today’s lineup that have dominated Leiber throughout his career. He is backed by a bullpen that has been overachieving all year, and now lacks an experienced closer with Gordon put on the DL. Padres @ Marlins Play: Padres +106 Intrinsic Value: -110 Consider Betting Price: +105 Comment: I am not a fan of Wells, and his recent pitching woes coupled with going up against one of the hottest lineups in baseball would lead one to believe he is in for a long day. However, I like how he matches up against a young, aggressive Marlins lineup. He has had past success against them, as he feeds off a lack of patience at the plate. It was only a week ago when this Marlins lineup was thoroughly dominated by a crafty veteran in Moyer, as they clearly showed again that day that they match up much better against power pitchers. Wells should also benefit from the home plate umpires large strike zone. If the Marlins can not get to Wells, they should have trouble scoring throughout this game, as he is backed by the best bullpen in the National League. Home field advantage is minimized in this game, as both lineups have been more productive on the road the last three years. Mitre is not an ideal pitcher to bet on, especially when backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Although he has shown a good amount of command, his assets should be countered by going up against a patient lineup. Mitre is very hittable, and has been owned by left handed hitters throughout his career, as they are batting .350 lifetime against him. This does not bode well for his chances, as the Padres can put five or six left handed bats in the lineup to take advantage of this deficiency. It is no surprise that Mitre has struggled against this team in past years, and the three hitters with the most at bats against him have hit him well. The Padres should be able to have scoring opportunities throughout this game, as he is backed by a bullpen that has been allowing runs and a dangerous rate. Indians @ Orioles Play: Orioles -104 Intrinsic Value: -129 Consider Betting Price: -115 Comment: Although this bet has its fair share of risks, such as Cabrera returning to the wild child last week, and is now going up against one of the most patient lineups in baseball, I feel that the market price reflects this risk. Despite walking 11 batters in the last two games, I still think Cabrera has much better command and control of his pitches this year compared to years past. If he could find this command once again, he could dominate any lineup in the league. He showed that to be the case against the Indians last year, where he pitched seven shutout innings against them. He has always been a better pitcher at home, and his ability to pitch to left handed hitters effectively should allow him to match up decently against this Indians lineup. Unlike past years, he is also backed by a solid bullpen, which should give the Orioles the advantage in the later innings, like yesterday. I am a fan of Sowers, but it appears the league may be catching up to him right now. He had an embedded advantage over the hitters last years, as his disparity of pitches could be overwhelming and tough to time. However, this advantage is quickly going away, and he is now starting to struggle against lineups that have seen him in the past. The Orioles got a good look at him last week, and dominated him in his only start against them last year. He has yet to prove to be an effective pitcher on the road, as he comes into today’s game with a road ERA now approaching five. Right handed hitters are starting to hit him really well. He is also backed by a sub par bullpen.

Pirates @ Brewers Play: Pirates +150 Intrinsic Value: +114 Consider Betting Price: +148 Comment: Although I lost badly on the Pirates last night, I have no problem going against the, as the Brewers continue to be really overvalued. Their hot streak and solid play is more than reflected in the market price. Sooner or later, Duke will find that pitching level he was at late last year and the year prior. He has put forth two solid outings in a row. Although he was dominated by the Brewers in his only start against them this year, he has put forth solid starts against them in the past, and is more vulnerable against more right handed loaded lineups. He is backed by a decent bullpen, allowing the Pirates to put forth better pitchers than the market price suggests. Suppan has been as solid as it gets since last years all star break. However, I continue to doubt the sustainability of this pitching level. He continues to struggle against left handed hitters, and really needs pinpoint command to be effective, as he lacks overpowering stuff to challenge hitters with. The Pirates have seen a lot of him the last few years, and were able to dominate him last year. This overachieving starter is also backed by an overachieving bullpen that is being valued above their true worth. Pure value play. A’s @ Devil Rays Play: Devil Rays -138 Intrinsic Value: -163 Consider Betting Price: -148 Comment: The A’s are just not a very good team right now. This holds especially true when they are not starting one of there dominant pitchers, which is the case today, despite Kennedy’s solid numbers. Kennedy’s WHIP and well hit balls suggest that is only a matter of time until he reverts to the pitcher he once was- average. Teams have been making solid contact against him, and he will allow his fair share of walks. It is only a matter of time until this results in runs, and this may be a good time for that to happen, as he faces a very dangerous and underrated home lineup. Kennedy is also most vulnerable against right handed hitters, which is predominantly what he will be up against in this game. He is easier to steal against compared to most southpaws, a variable that holds especially true with Kendall behind home plate, a catcher that can’t throw anyone out. This is not something you want against the fastest team in baseball, who could turn Kennedy’s walks into doubles. Kazmir seems to have found his groove, as he has put forth two solid starts in a row, including a road one last week against the A’s. He now gets another chances against them at home, where he has always been a much more dominant pitcher. The A’s have the worst lineup in baseball. This holds especially true with all the injuries they are dealing with. Kazmir has always had past success against this team, and fundamentally matches up well against them. The A’s are no longer an ideal candidate to work pitch counts, which should allow Kazmir to eat up more innings that he is accustomed to, and avoid a horrible underbelly of a Drays bullpen. If he could go seven strong like he did last week against the A’s, the A’s will have really one inning where their lineup holds the advantage, as the Drays appear to have finally found a closer. Blue Jays @ Rangers Play: Rangers +150 Intrinsic Value: +110 Consider Betting Price: +136 Comment: There is no denying that Holliday is a top tier pitcher in the league. However, the asset he brings to the table is fully reflected in the market price, and then some. The Rangers are also a team that has always given him problems, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA over five against them. Most of his problems have also occurred in this park, where he has also allowed a good amount of home runs. There exists three dangerous hitters that have had good success against him throughout there career, and if he continues to struggle against this team more than most, he will find it hard to go deep into games like he is accustomed to doing. This also does not bode well for the Blue Jays chances, as they do not have a good bullpen without Ryan. This is a series in which home field advantage is magnified, as both lineups hit much better at home. I am starting to give up on Padilla, and am coming to realize that he will probably never be a pitcher that will pitch to his potential. However, he still has the ability to put fort solid outings every now and then, and is a dangerous home underdog. Part of this years struggle has also been the fact that he has pitched on the road in five of his six starts, and has always been a much better home pitcher, where he seems to pitch with a lot more motivation. He has put forth solid outings against the Blue Jays in the past, and is still one of the best pitchers in baseball against right handed hitters. This does not bode well for the Blue Jays chances, as they are loaded from the right side. He is also backed by the better bullpen. The Blue Jays are slumping, and are not very dangerous outside of their home park. They will also more than likely be without their best hitter, Wells, once again today.

One of the biggest fallacies a lot of baseball handicappers make is assume that they are betting on the team. A successful handicapper does not bet the team, rather bets the price (which is a derivative of the team). Any given game I handicap, I am willing to bet either one of two teams. It just depends on the price. I can’t stress the importance of being open minded in your handicapping approach, and be willing to bet on a team you think has a greater chance of losing ( which I thought was the case in the Rangers and Pirates games). To justify a bet, all have to do is quantify a percentage that is greater than the percentage the market price converts to. In both the Pirates and Rangers game, I was willing to bet on the Brewers or Blue Jays if the price was right. But it simply was not the case. To understand this notion better, you have to understand the thought process of a linesmaker. He knows the price elasticity of a public bettor is more resilient compared to a “sharp”. They also know the public likes big name pitchers (like Holliday) and hot teams (like the Brewers). Knowing this, they know that they could slap any price tag on the Blue Jays and Brewers on Saturday’s game and still get a heavy volume distribution on both teams. So they artificially inflate the line from what they think the fundamental value on both teams are, thus creating value on the opposition. Value is everything in baseball. This contrarian approach could be tough to stomach in the short run, as you are usually betting against a solid pitcher or hot team, but in the long run, it allows you to grind out a profit if done correctly. I am retired, but was in the financial industry (IB). I do not consider myself a professional gambler, as I earned my living as in investment banker ( and do not need to bet on sports), but am willing to admit there have been years in which I earned more in my gambling.

White Sox @ Angels Play: White Sox +125 Intrinsic Value: -108 Consider Betting Price: +106 Comment: The White Sox are really out of favor right now, as the public never wants anything to do with a team possessing dormant bats. Although regression was bound to happen for a few aging White Sox hitters that were overachieving the last couple of years, their lineup is a more potent than the one they have been displaying so far this season, and are being valued well below their potential. Colon has consistently been overvalued since returning to the rotation, and continues to carry a hefty price tag despite putting forth consecutively worse outings, including a poor outing last week against a struggling Royals lineup. Approaching 34 and coming off the type of injuries he has, pitching at a Cy Young level is more than likely a thing of the past. He has always been known to be a streaky pitcher, and appears to be on a downward trend right now. He is also not a pitcher that has been known to pitch more effectively at home. Although he is backed by a top tier bullpen, its backend is far more talented than the underbelly, a portion that may not be avoided factoring in Colon has averaged 91 pitches per start and the White Sox being one of the better lineups in working opponents pitch counts. The White Sox have been slightly more productive against right handed hitters, hitting on the road and during day games this year. Despite starting the season off strong, including a no hit game, the public continues to back away from yet another finesse southpaw in Buerhle. Although I am not terribly high on him either, being a finesse rhythm pitcher, when his stuff is working, it can work for prolonged periods of time. In past years, Buerhle has been prone to allowing a lot of hits, but made up for it with his outstanding control and low walk total. His control is still there, however, he has been one of the harder pitchers to get his off of this year, allowing just 21 in over 30 innings of work. Being a corner pitcher that lacks overpowering stuff, he is also heavily dependent on the home plate umpire. Fortunately for him, he will be working with a generous strike zone. He has had past success against a few of the hitters in today’s lineup, and will be up against a lineup playing with a depleted outfield, as Mathews along with Anderson will be out for today’s game. The White Sox bullpen has been pitching well this year, and have a few arms that have dominated the Angels throughout their career.

Padres @ Braves Play: Padres +118 Intrinsic Value: -115 Consider Betting Price: -103 Comment: It is no surprise here that Young is once again undervalued on the road, as he has consistently been such throughout his career. Although he has had a couple of rough outings, Young is once again quietly putting forth a solid year. He has been nearly unhittable for right handed hitters, which is a huge asset going up against this Braves lineup. Although he has not put forth the most impressive road numbers so far year to date, he has proven to be one of the most effective pitchers away from home the last couple of years. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.35 road ERA. Although he struggled against this Braves lineup last year, I don’t think it lacks sustainability. Not only were both his starts against them at home, where he has never pitched terribly well, but this lineup doesn’t fundamentally match up well with his style of pitching. He dominated them a couple years ago in his only start against them. Being a fly ball pitcher, he should also be helped out by the spacious outfield of this park. Being backed by the best bullpen in the National League should allow the Padres to put forth quality pitchers throughout this game, curtailing the effects of this Braves lineup. Although the Braves have been one of the most impressive hitting teams in baseball, expect their run productivity to slow down a bit, as their two out hitting can not sustain the current rate. James just isn’t fooling the hitters like he did last year. His deceptive delivery and nice speed disparity made it really tough on hitters to time last year, which was a huge embedded advantage that allowed him to put forth impressive stats. Although he has the makings of being a solid pitcher, it appears that the league has caught up to him a bit. He has been much more hittable, and right handed bats have been dominating him. He also appears vulnerable to the home run ball of late, allowing five in his last three starts. Despite being a lineup loaded from the left side, the Padres roughed James up last year in his only start against them, and have been hitting southpaws better than right handed pitchers this year. They are also a team that consistently hits the ball better away from home. Although the Braves have an improved and solid bullpen, this is one series in which they do not have a bullpen advantage. Astros @ Reds Play: Astros -128 Intrinsic Value: -165 Consider Betting Price: -147 Comment: Oswalt owns the Reds. Not because of his 18 and 1 record against them, rather because of all the other fundamental pitching stats that have shown dominance. He continued this dominance against them in his last start, where he pitched eight strong innings and allowed just one run. Although he has always been a much better pitcher at home, he still is a dominant road pitcher, and has put forth solid starts in this hitter’s park. Part of his success against this lineup is a product of being just as effective against left handed hitters as he is against right handed ones. It is no surprise that he has had the upper hand against the more dangerous hitters in today’s lineup. He is also one of the best pitchers in going deep into games, and could avoid the front end of the Astros bullpen. The Reds have not been terribly effective in this hitter’s park, and have put forth numbers that do not reflect such an environment. Lohse is off to an impressive start, yet a start that is more than likely unsustainable. He has shown signs of slowing down in his last two outings, where he has been very hittable, and where his strikeout rate decreased. Right handed hitters have been hitting him well this year, which is not a good sign, as although he has pitched left handed hitters well, he has been dominated by them throughout his career, allowing them to nearly hit .300 against him. The Astros were able to put eleven runners on base in just six innings in his only start against them, and were able to get baserunners at a high rate against him last year. Although he has always been a better pitcher at home, and has done well at home so far this year, he showed problems pitching in this park last year, finishing with over a five ERA in this park. He is also backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, which should give the Astros the advantage in the later innings.

Mets @ Giants Play: Giants +102 Intrinsic Value: -118 Consider Betting Price: -104 Comment: I am not terribly excited about betting against the Mets on the road, but at this price, I am willing to do so. Zito has been dominant in his last four starts, as he found his fastball, allowing him to use his curve more effectively. His style of pitching takes time to get used to, which does not bode well for a lineup that lacks experience against him. The only two hitters with more than ten at bats against him are Beltran and Delgado, both whom are hitting under .200 against him. Zito is also a workhorse that could go deep into games and avoid a suspect and fatigued front end of the Giants bullpen. The Giants backend is well rested and has been pitching well so far year to date. The Mets are a much more dangerous lineup against right handed pitching and against power pitchers. Going up against a finesse southpaw is not an ideal match up for them. The spacious park should also curtail the power advantage that they bring to the table. Perez has been solid so far this year, and is finally pitching at the level people predicted a few years back. However, I am still hesitant in assuming he has finally arrived, and coming back to earth may be in the cards for him sooner or later. He has always been a horrible road pitcher, coming into this game with a five plus career road ERA, which is over a run higher than his home one. He has actually been more effective against right handed hitters throughout the year, taking away the advantage most southpaws have when facing a left handed loaded lineup the Giants have. He has never had success against the Giants. Although he has not struggled against any current Giants, being known for mental weakness, the past struggles against this team may work against them. The Mets bullpen is solid, but continues to get less talented, as they optioned Burgos to Triple A ball. The Giants lineup is not terribly potent, but are streaky. They have scored at least five runs in five straight games.

Adding. Rockies @ Cardinals Play: Rockies +128 Intrinsic Value: +102 Consider Betting Price: +126 Comment: Late money on the Cardinals has created enough value on the Rockies for me not to pass them up. Reyes has all the tools to be a successful pitcher in the big leagues, but continues to be unsuccessful in putting all of it together. Despite being a hard pitcher to hit, his career ERA is approaching five, as he mentally breaks down in jams and has been unable to pitch well out of the stretch. His confidence is low right now, and has not been able to go deep into innings, which is concerning when being backed by a not so talented bullpen. He is prone to the long ball, and started to struggle with his control the last couple of outings. The Rockies lineup is the type to capitalize on Reyes inefficiencies, and has put forth some solid games at the plate in recent road outings. Francis is another young pitcher with a ton of talent, but has been unable to turn that talent into results this year. However, last year he showed he could be an effective pitcher at the big league level, and tonight has a good chance to get things back on track, as he is up against what might be the most anemic lineup in baseball against left handed pitching. The Cardinals bats continue to remain dormant, scoring three runs or less in eight straight games, a deficiency you don’t want when backed with Reyes. The Cardinals just don’t have enough (if any) advantages in this game to be such a favorite.

On a 32-6 run, but not expecting the greatest of winning percentages today. Mariners @ Tigers Play: Mariners +191 Intrinsic Value: +128 Consider Betting Price: +154 Comment: There is no denying that Ramirez has not looked good on the mound this season and is a risky pitcher to bet on. However, I feel that his risks are fully reflected in the line and then some. Expect him to slowly get things back on track as he has the pitching arsenal to get big league hitters out. When on, he could be really effective against left handed hitters, an asset you want when going up against this Tigers lineup. He is also a pitcher that needs a spacious outfield to be effective, something that he will get in today’s game. I have no problem backing him when he is this out of favor, especially since he is backed by a front end bullpen pitching well right now. The Tigers are swinging the bats well right now, but are one of the few teams that have consistently been less effective hitting at home the last couple of years. Bonderman has a pitching arsenal to be a dominant pitcher, a variable that has not bypassed the public, as he continues to come with a high price tag. However, he has been known to go into bouts of hittable stretches, something that he might be on the brink of now, as he has allowed 20 hits in his last two starts. Much like the Tigers lineup, Bonderman has been a pitcher that prefers to pitch on the road throughout his career, and this year appears to be no exception. Despite putting forth solid career numbers against the Mariners, they are misleading, as he has not had success against any hitter that he will have to face in today’s lineup. He has however, struggled against all three hitters that have over ten lifetime at bats against him. Bonderman is backed by a solid bullpen, but is a bullpen that suffered a big blow with the injury to Zumaya. This holds especially true as Rodney has not pitched well this season. The Mariners are another team that hits better away from home, and a few of their hitters that underachieved the first month of the season are starting to hit the ball well. In my opinion, they have a better chance of winning this game that linesmakers are leading you to believe. Red Sox @ Blue Jays Play: Blue Jays +170 Intrinsic Value: +108 Consider Betting Price: +126 Comment: This line is way off. Although they have been producing profit year to date, the Red Sox are the most overvalued team in baseball, something that will sooner or later catch up to their bettors. Beckett has pitched well so far year to date, and is an improved pitcher from last year. However, his fast start to the season is exaggerated, and has shown signs of slowing down a bit. Don’t be surprised if he continues his downward trend, as he is up against a team and in a park in which he has struggled against in the past. Last year, the Blue Jays really gave Beckett problems, as he generated a six plus ERA in five starts against them, and allowed a run an inning in his two outings in this park. The Blue Jays have really become out of favor after losing six straight. However, as mentioned continually throughout the season, this is a team much better at home, an environment that they have yet to play in this month. There are a few hitters spread throughout the lineup that hit Beckett well last year. Although the Red Sox bullpen has pitched well year to date, they lack the talent to keep it sustained. Zambrano is a risky pitcher to put money on, but at this price, his risks are accounted for. He is not a pitcher that can give you more than four or five innings per start, but can keep his team in the first half of the game. Despite having horrible career numbers against the Red Sox, he has actually dominated a few of their key hitters, including Lowell, Ramirez and Varitek. The only hitter with past success against him is Ortiz, who could be pitched around due to the struggles of three hitters behind him. The Blue Jays have a lot of long inning relief pitchers to accommodate Zambrono’s deficiency, and have a few arms with past success against the Red Sox. The Red Sox, much like the Blue Jays, are a much more potent team at home, magnifying the home field advantage in this game. Pirates @ Cubs Play: Pirates +150 Intrinsic Value: +118 Consider Betting Price: +146 Comment: As expected, once the Cubs started getting things on track, they would come with an inflated price tag. Snell is too good of a pitcher to warrant such disrespect by linesmakers. He has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this season, and has the stuff to continue to put forth dominant numbers. He continues to be effective against right handed hitters, but has improved drastically against left handed bats this year, which is a nice asset going up against this Cubs lineup that has some dangerous hitters from the left side as well. Snell is also one of those young pitchers that appears to be better off pitching on the road, when he is less prone to overthrowing. Although the Cubs lineup matches up well against him, their past numbers are a bit misleading, as his five runs allowed last year in this park were a product of getting squeezed and mentally breaking one inning because of it. He is backed by a solid enough bullpen that can slow down a dangerous Cubs bullpen. Lilly’s curveball has been one of the best in baseball this season, but he simply is not a good enough pitcher to keep his current numbers sustained. He witnessed some regression last week against the same Pirates lineup, who was able to get nine hits against him in just over five innings of work. Most of Lilly’s success this year has been a product of dominating right handed hitters, a variable that he has not done effectively in his career until now. This is just another variable leading to unsustainable numbers. The Pirates have been improving their road performances this year, and are a lineup built to hit left handed pitchers. This is a third straight underdog that has a slightly greater chance of losing, but a better chance of winning than what the market price indicates.

White Sox @ Twins Play: Twins -107 Intrinsic Value: -131 Consider Betting Price: -117 Comment: It is becoming quite evident that linesmakers and I have a different opinion on Bonser, as he continues to remain undervalued in my opinion. There is no denying that he has regressed a bit from the second half of last year, but it has been more of a product of underachieving and lacking ideal command, something that he was always good at. Walks have been really plaguing him this year, which is a deficiency that should be helped out by going up against (what was once a patient lineup) and overly aggressive lineup. The White Sox lineup is also a lineup that has really taken a step backwards this year, as regression and age are catching up to them. They are also a lineup that has clearly shown that they miss Thome and Posednick. They have scored more than four runs in one of their last seven games, and are much less dangerous away from home. Being backed by the best bullpen in baseball should force a struggling lineup to put up runs early. This is the second straight year in which Vazquez has not been effective on the road. This is a trend that has a good chance of continuing today, as he is up against a team that has dominated him in the past, and inside a park that has give him problems as well. He comes into today’s game with an ERA approaching six against the Twins, when most of his struggles have occurred in the Metrodome. Although Mauer’s injury should hurt the Twins in the long run, this game appears to be a game in which his absence is over quantified, as he is a rare Twins player that has struggled against Vazquez, while his replacement has hit him well. There are a few Twins hitters spread across the lineup with past success against him, which is something the Twins are in dire need of, as they have struggled scoring runs in recent games. Indians @ Angels Play: Angels -111 Intrinsic Value: -125 Consider Betting Price: -112 Comment: As much as Santana is a compelling fade on the road, he is a compelling bet at home. There is not a pitcher in baseball with more of a disparity of productivity when comparing home and away performances the last few years. He has been one of the most dominating home pitchers in baseball throughout his young career, coming into today’s game with a career 3.01 home ERA, which is light-years ahead of his 6.60 career road ERA. This year is no exception, as he has put forth solid home performances yet again. Although he has some ugly career totals in limited innings against the Indians, they are inflated by a horrific road start against them. Santana is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball, so if he can continue his home dominance, this hot Indians lineup may have a hard time scoring throughout. Lee looked rusty in his first outing coming off the DL, allowing five runs and nine hits in just six innings of work. He should continue to be on a limited pitch count, which should limit him from going deep into the game when you couple the fact he takes a lot of pitches to get outs. Until Lee proves that 05 wasn’t a fluke, I will continue to assume that he is a middle of a road pitcher that put forth one solid year. He has never been terribly effective on the road, has struggled in this park, and has been overmatched by a few Angels hitters spread across the lineup, including Guerrero. The Angels are one of the biggest stealing threats in baseball, especially with Figgins back, which does not bode well for an Indians team not good holding runners on baseball. The Angels have been playing well at home, and have been hitting left handed pitching well this year. The Indians bullpen is not terribly talented, which should give the Angels a clear pitching advantage in the later innings. Mets @ Giants Play: Mets +109 Intrinsic Value: -119 Consider Betting Price: -102 Comment: I am a big fan of Cain. He probably has the heaviest fastball out of any starter in the league right now, which has made him extremely hard to get hits off of. However, there still remain two teams in the NL that he does not match up particularly well against. One is a Phillies team that handed him his first bad start of the season last week. The other is a Mets lineup that he will have to face tonight. Cain has the propensity to struggle with his control, especially against left handed hitters. When he continually falls behind counts, he implodes. So two ideal variables you want against Cain is to have a lineup loaded from the left side, which the Mets are, and a lineup with patient hitters that take a lot of pitches and do not go out of the strike zone, which the Mets do. This should make Cain vulnerable on the mound, and force him to accumulate a high pitch count early in the game. He is also not a good pitcher holding runners on, while Molina has struggled throwing runners out, deficiencies that the Mets will make you pay for having. Cain has been on a low pitch count, and is not an ideal candidate to go deep into this game. The Giants do not have a strong bullpen, and should be overmatched by this Mets lineup. The Mets are the most potent road lineup in the NL, and probably the most dangerous against right handed power pitchers as well. This is a good spot for Glavine to put forth a solid outing and continue his early season success. He has the spacious outfield he works well with, and is up against a veteran lineup with hitters he is familiar with. Glavine has dominated several role players in today’s lineup, and the only two hitters he has had past struggles against, occurred a few years back, as neither have had much at bats against him the last three years. Glavine has showed solid command in his last few outings, and has been able to generate solid numbers despite pitching against the Phillies and Braves in four of his seven starts. His lack of control in April was a product of pitching in cold weather, a variable that really effects his pitching style and won’t be a factor in today’s game. Aside from Bonds and Durham, the Giants have been displaying free swinging tendencies this year, which Glavine can pick apart. He is also backed by a much better bullpen, which should give the Mets the pitching advantage in the later innings.

I think a teams’ current (short term) level of play holds merit and adjust my valuation for such accordingly. However, in my opinion, rarely do you see the increase in intrinsic value of teams from playing well be more than the increase in market price of those teams. The reason is simple. The public loves betting hot teams, and linesmakers inflate the line from a fundamental stand point (which holds substance) and the anticipation of the increase in demand for that team (which doesn’t hold substance). I also think solely basing a teams current level of play on their winning streak is not completely prudent. The reason for it is that the most important player (the starting pitcher) was probably a variable in at most one of those games. If a team like the Giants (who have four strong pitchers) go on a four game winning streak by winning 3-2 every game, and on the 5th day have Ortiz (now on the DL) their worth should not increase, as their hitting was actually not productive, and Ortiz had nothing to do with the streak. Also, since streaks are part fundamental and part intangible, I tend to split the adjustment with an increase in my MOS with the increase in intrinsic value. Long story short, the Blue Jays slump is more than factored in the line. In the long run, betting these types of teams should produce profit, but you need to be prepared for some bad stretches.

There are a few games close to my target, so I may add throughout the day. Mets @ Giants Play: Mets -132 Intrinsic Value: -169 Consider Betting Price: -148 Comment: Ever since late last year, people have been waiting for Maine to come back to earth. Not only has he yet to do such, he hasn’t even shown signs of slowing down. He has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this year, and might currently be the hardest pitcher to get hits off of. In nearly 40 innings of work, he has allowed just 24 hits, and has shown better command of his pitches in his last three games. Maine has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his starts, and has actually pitched more effectively in his road outings. He is just as dominant on left handed hitters as he is right handed ones, which is a nice asset when going up against a lineup that is balanced between the two. The Giants have never faced him before, and lack the ideal patience at the plate to take advantage of his only weakness, his propensity to walk batters. Maine has also pitched better during day games throughout his career, and is backed by one of the better bullpens in baseball. The Giants should have a hard time scoring throughout this game. The Giants have a roster filled with veteran players, and are more than likely going to rest a starter or two in a day game following a night game. Morris has started the season off well, but is past his prime and has been in a downward trend for three years now. Morris has been more prone to getting overmatched by power hitters and left handed bats late in his career, two deficiencies you do not want to have against this Mets lineup. His solid career numbers against the Mets are misleading, as he has only had success against one hitter in the lineup, and has actually struggled pitching against a few. Morris also struggled pitching against the Mets last year. Teams have been running off of him this year, something the Mets could capitalize on. He is backed by a sub par bullpen that should be overmatched by this Mets lineup. The Mets are the most dangerous lineup against right handed pitcher and on the road in the NL. Devil Rays @ Orioles Play: Orioles -131 Intrinsic Value: -190 Consider Betting Price: -173 Comment: A lot of hidden value on the Orioles, as the public has started backing Shields after his fast start and have shied away from Bedard after early season struggles. There is no denying the upside potential in which Shields possesses. He has one of the best change ups out of any right handed pitcher in baseball. However, he has yet to show any consistency in his road starts, and there has not been a team in baseball that has given him more problems in his young career. The Orioles handed him his worst start of the season a couple of weeks back, and also had success against him last year. Shields comes into this game with a career five plus road ERA, and an ERA approaching six against the Orioles. Part of Shields success has been his ability to face lineups with not much experience against him, which bodes well for his chances, as he is hard to time and his change up is hard to pick up. However, the Orioles have faced him three times now and have had no problem hitting him. There are a few hitters with past success in limited at bats. The Orioles have been swinging the bats better of late and have gotten a boost from the return of Hernandez. Shields is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. It is only a matter of time until Bedard starts pitching to his ability, something that he showed in his last start against a potent Indians lineup. This is a good spot for him to put forth two solid outings in a row. He has always been a much more effective pitcher at home, and has dominated the Devil Rays throughout his career. His style of pitching always matches up well against free swinging lineups, something this Drays lineup is notorious for. Last year he dominated this lineup, posting a 2.75 ERA in six starts against them. It is no surprise that he has had past success against a few of their hitters. He is also backed by a solid bullpen that is much more talented than their counterparts. The Devil Rays are much less potent away from home, and are better suited for going up against pitchers easy to steal off of, which is not the case here. Dodgers @ Marlins Play: Marlins -122 Intrinsic Value: -150 Consider Betting Price: -134 Comment: Tomko is a fundamental handicappers dream, as he is a very situational pitcher. There have not been many pitchers in the last decade that has shown a higher disparity of home and away productivity than he. He comes into today’s game with a career ERA over one and a half runs higher in his road starts, which is a huge disparity after so many years of pitching. This does not bode well for his chances as he is making his second straight road start against one of the most potent lineups in the National League. The Marlins have been swinging the bats as well as any other team in the National League and have young players spread throughout the lineup that match up well with Tomko’s pitching style. Tomko has put forth solid, but misleading career numbers against the Marlins as he has not had much of a past history against most of their hitters. Although he is backed by a solid bullpen, he is not expected to go deep into this game, and their front end pen also possesses a pitching style that does not match up well with this lineup. Willis has looked bad so far this year, but I have no problem backing him when he is this out of favor. He has been in some rough stretches before and has always bounced back in dominating fashion. Despite coming into this game with some poor career totals against the Dodgers, they too are misleading, as the has had past success against a some of their hitters, while the Nomar comes into this game with the best numbers against him, just 4 for 9. Willis has been the most dominant starter against left handed hitters this year, allowing just three hits, which should curtail the effects of the three left handed outfielders on the Dodgers. Although the Marlins bullpen has been overachieving, they have a few young, live arms pitching well right now.

Astros @ Reds Play: Astros +140 Intrinsic Value: -108 Consider Betting Price: +106 Comment: It was quite apparent prior to season’s start that Williams numbers would depreciate by not having a pitchers park at his disposal in his home outings. However, he is not as bad as his current numbers would indicate, and his risks are fully reflected in the current line. He has actually put forth three quality starts in a row, and is a finesse right handed pitcher that has always pitched to left handed hitters more effectively, which is a nice asset to have against this left handed loaded lineup. Although he has struggled throughout his career against the Reds, he has only pitched to them twice in the last three years. He has had past success against Dunn and Hattenberg, and only Griffey has given him real problems in the past. He is not backed by the best of bullpens, but a bullpen much better than their counterparts. Beslisle has shown some signs of slowing down of late, allowing at least four runs in three straight home starts. He comes into today’s game with a six plus home ERA year to date. Left handers match up well with his pitching style, which is not something you want against this Astros lineup. He has been much more hittable of late, and has gone past the sixth inning in just one start this year. This does not bode well for the Reds chances, as he is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The Astros lineup is starting to pick up steam, scoring 26 runs in their last four games. Indians @ Angels Play: Indians +120 Intrinsic Value: 102 Consider Betting Price: +118 Comment: Now that the Angels hot streak at the plate is over, their have reverted back to one of the most dormant lineups in baseball. Last night, they were thoroughly dominated by a pitcher that consistently kept them off balance with off speed pitches. This does not bode well for their chances in tonight’s game, as they are up against a savvy veteran that has made a living keeping hitters off balance. Byrd is looking more like the solid pitcher he was in 05, rather than the pitcher that was a liability on the mound in 06. He has regained confidence in his stuff, allowing him to pitch effectively from the stretch. He has also shown outstanding command, and has walked just three batters all year. He has also always been a pitcher that has pitched more effectively on the road. He has always been much more prone going up against lineups loaded from the left side, as left handed hitters have always had a much easier time picking him up. However, the Angels are one of the least potent lineups from the left side, which holds especially true after the injury to Anderson. There are a couple of role players on the Angels in which Byrd has had past success against, while he matches up well with the younger hitters that have yet to see him. The Indians bullpen is well rested thanks to Lee’s gem last night. After a horrible start to the season, Weaver has now put forth two solid outings in a row. That said, he is not nearly as good of a pitcher than the numbers he put forth last year, and could have problems against a power lineup that is patient and loaded from the left side. Weaver has been downright dominant against right handed bats in his career, but is prone to struggle against left handed ones. This does not bode well, as he is more than likely going to face five left handed bats, including the first four in the lineup. He is backed by a solid bullpen, but a bullpen that took a huge blow with the Spier going to the DL. The Angels are now two deep and vulnerable to this Indians lineup prior to the 8th inning. The Indians have been one of the most dangerous road hitting teams in baseball the last three years.

White Sox @ Twins Play: Twins -112 Intrinsic Value: -126 Consider Betting Price: -113 Comment: Silva has shown many signs that he has returned to the pitcher that he was in 05, and is no longer the struggling pitcher he was last year. Two main signs that he has drastically improved is the notion that he has been much harder to hit home runs against, something that he was prone to allowing last year, which was especially concerning since he is a sinkerball pitcher. Another sign of him being a much improved pitcher is the notion that he has put forth solid starts against teams that have given him problems in past years, including the White Sox, as he pitched five strong innings against them early this year, allowing just one run on the road. Silva has always been a much better pitcher at home, and this year is no different. Adding a change up to his pitching arsenal has allowed him to keep hitters off balance, a pitch that has been giving the White Sox problems this year. Most of Silva’s problems against the White Sox have occurred on the road, where he is a much less effective pitcher. If he continues his success today, the White Sox should have trouble scoring throughout this game, as he is backed by the best bullpen in baseball. The White Sox lineup continues to struggle, clearly misses Thome and Posednick, and is more dangerous in their home park. Ever since Contreras put forth that dominant season in 05, I have been claiming that it was unsustainable. So far, he appears to be proving me right, as he has followed last year’s mediocre year with a sub par year so far year to date. He has really struggled with his control this year, forcing him to pitch in the stretch in a higher rate of innings than he is accustomed to. Last year, the Twins gave him problems, while there are a few role players that have hit him well. Although he has put forth solid road performances year to date, he has always been a better pitcher at home. He is backed by a decent bullpen, but a bullpen that appears to be struggling pitching to this pesky Twins lineup. Pirates @ Cubs Play: Cubs -183 Intrinsic Value: -233 Consider Betting Price: -210 Comment: On the surface, this appears to be a lot of basis points to lay on the Cubs, but fundamentally speaking, the Cubs are undervalued in my opinion. Zambrano’s early season struggles has made him undervalued, while the public is once again shying away from the Cubs now that their lineup has gone dormant the last couple of games. Expect Zambrano to turn things around sooner or later. Part of the reason for his early season struggles has been the notion of having to pitch a lot of games in cold weather, something that will not be the case in today’s game. He has always been more effective in warm weather day games such as today. Although he struggled pitching against the Pirates last year, this problem lacks sustainability, as the Pirates have been one of the most anemic lineups against power pitchers this year. Their bats have struggled of late, and have never been nearly as potent on the road the last couple of years. Their situational hitting has been non existent of late, which should help Zambrano’s recent problems of pitching out of the stretch. He is also backed by the better and deeper bullpen. I have no problem betting on the Cubs lineup when they become out of favor, as they have one of the deepest and most potent lineups in baseball that gives the pitcher no breaks. This holds especially true when adding a ninth bat like Zambrano. Malholm solid season a couple of years back appears to be a decent memory as he just looks horrible on the mound this year. He has never had overpowering stuff, and relied on command and finesse style of pitching to get hitters out. However, he simply does not have either this year, and his lack of confidence on the mound is quite evident. He has never been an effective pitcher on the road, as he comes into today’s game with a career road ERA of 5.55. Day games have also given him problems, while there are a few hitters in the Cubs lineup that have hit him well in limited at bats. The Cubs got a good look of most of the Pirates bullpen arms a couple of days back, and Malholm is not expected to go deep into this game. Indians @ Angels Play: Indians +128 Intrinsic Value: +102 Consider Betting Price: +124 Comment: Escobar has always been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. However, that simply does not appear to be the case any longer, as he has now been carrying an inflated price tag most of the year. There is no denying his dominance on the mound of late; however, four of his five starts this year were against slumping lineups at the time, which will not be the case in today’s game. He has always been much easier to pick up during day games, and his inability to work a high pitch count should force him to not eat up a lot of innings against a lineup built to work opponents pitch counts early in games. Although he is backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen that took a huge blow with the injury to Spiers. The Indians lineup is much more talented than their counterparts, and have been more effective during day games and on the road the last couple of years. Sowers early season struggles has forced him to become out of favor, but I have no problem backing a young pitcher with a ton of upside when the price is right. This may be a good spot for him to regain some of that confidence that has disappeared in recent outings, as he is up against one of the most anemic lineups in baseball. It is also a lineup that does not match up with his finesse style, as they have really been struggling hitting the off speed pitch this series. Sowers has put forth two solid starts against the Angels in his career, and his best outing this year was against this team. He bounced back well from his other horrible outing last month, and this appears to be a spot for him to do the same. He has shown to be more effective during day games in both his seasons, and when on, his style allows him to work deep into games.

Devil Rays @ Orioles Play: Orioles -152 Intrinsic Value: -205 Consider Betting Price: -187 Comment: I have no problem laying this many basis points against what might be the worst road pitcher in baseball right now. Many though that there was no way that Fossum would be able to put up road numbers anywhere near his eight plus ERA last year, but so far is right in pace to duplicate last years disastrous road performances. It has clearly become a mental problem as well, and this park has not been terribly kind to him either. The Orioles have gotten a lot of looks at his unorthodox pitching style during the last couple of year. There are some hitters in today’s lineup that have hit him well. His style of pitching also makes him vulnerable to be stolen off of, which is not a deficiency you want against this Orioles team. He has never been an innings eater type, which also does not bode well for the Devil Rays chances, as he is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, whose front end is simply a nightmare. The Orioles are a more potent lineup at home, have been hitting southpaws better of late, and have become a deeper lineup since the return of both Hernandez and Payton. Cabrera appears to be a much improved pitcher this year. His career has been plagued bouts of no control and high walk totals, something in which he just could not overcome. This year, his control is much improved, and his first four starts, he walked just seven batters. Although in his last three starts he has shown some lack of control once again, in two of those starts, he has proven that he could overcome a high walk total and still put solid outings together. He has always been a much better pitcher at home and during night games. He has had success against the Devil Rays throughout his career as they have really have had trouble getting hits off of him. They have been unable to take advantage of his high walk total in the past, and with the way they have been hitting of late and have always hit on the road, the odds of them doing such this game is slim. He is also backed by a much better bullpen that proved to be the difference in last night’s game. Red Sox @ Blue Jays Play: Blue Jays: -144 Intrinsic Value: -174 Consider Betting Price: -146 Comment: It has been a while since I have bet on Holliday as he rarely comes at a price below his fundamental value. However, I am not surprised in the least that he is coming with value today after his last start, with the recent play of the Blue Jays hitters, and against the Red Sox. Expect a competitor like Holliday to be primed for a nice outing after coming off his worst start of his career. He has already put forth two quality outings against the Red Sox this year, including a gem in his last go around where he went eight strong and struck out ten batters. Although he does not have the most impressive numbers against the Red Sox, most of his struggles have occurred in Fenway, where the Red Sox are a much more potent lineup and where Holliday has been less effective. He has been dominant at home this year, coming into today’s game with an ERA in the one’s in this park. He is one of the best pitchers in baseball in going deep into games, and avoiding the front end of the Blue Jays bullpen. This should allow them to put forth solid pitchers throughout the game if Holliday is unable to go the distance. Wakefield’s knuckleball has been dominant so far this season, but this may be a good spot for it to slowdown, as he now has to pitch to the same lineup for the third time in three weeks. There have been some Blue Jays hitters making good contact against it so far this year, while there are a couple with good lifetime numbers against the knuckleball. It is much less a novelty for hitters after already seeing it twice in three weeks. Wakfield has always been more effective indoors and during day games, two variables that will not be in his favor today. He has shown a preference of pitching at home as his career progresses as well. Giants @ Rockies Play: Rockies -115 Intrinsic Value: -151 Consider Betting Price: -137 Comment: I am a big fan of Lowry’s. However, this is one situation that has caused him nightmares in his career- having to pitch in Coors Field. His looping curve and change up has always had the propensity to hang in the thin air, making his two most effective pitchers tailor made to hit hard. His numbers in this park has not surprisingly been horrific, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA of over 11 in this park, allowing 29 runs in a little over 23 innings of work. Lowry has also never been nearly as effective pitcher away from home, as his career road ERA still remains over five. It is no surprise that there are a few hitters with past success against him. The Rockies have a young and dangerous lineup that is much more potent at home, and have a couple of young hitters that were struggling early in the season and are starting to turn things around. Lowry is also backed by a sub par bullpen, which should give the Rockies scoring opportunities throughout this game. Cook is pitching in the wrong division. The reason as that the lineups in his division have a much higher rate of left handed hitters than average, a type of hitter he just can’t solve. Although he has struggled against the Giants in the past, most of his struggles have occurred on the road against them. He has put forth quality home starts in three of his last four outings against them. He has struggled against a good amount of hitters in the lineup, but has also dominated some as well. His ability to get the double play ball allows him to get out of jams much better than most pitchers. He also seems to be improving a bit against teams in his division, and has yet to face this Giants lineup this year. The Giants hitters are cooling off a bit of late, having scored in just four innings during their last three games.

Hoping to rebound off of a horrible day; albeit my first losing day of the month. I may add more plays later. Braves @ Pirates Play: Pirates -105 Intrinsic Value: -142 Consider Betting Price: -128 Comment: I am not sure how Davies warrants being near even money on the road, but that is the case in today’s game while going up against the ace of the Pirates staff. He just isn’t ready for pitching in the big leagues, as he lacks the overpowering stuff to make up for his high walk propensity. He comes into today’s game with a WHIP of 1.69, and has allowed at least four runs in four straight outings. He has also performed much worse on the road throughout his career, as his road ERA is approaching seven after nearly 100 innings of work. He is also a right handed pitcher that struggles more against right handed bats, as they are hitting over .300 lifetime against him. This is not something you want when going up against a lineup that will put six right handed hitters at the plate. Davies solid past numbers against the Pirates were accumulated a couple of years back when he was actually a more effective pitcher. He is not built to go deep into games, and the underbelly of the Braves bullpen has been struggling of late. Although the Pirates have not been hitting well at home this year, they have shown the last three years that they are a more productive hitting team in their own backyard. Davies is not the only young pitcher in this game that has been struggling so far year to date, as this has been a poor season thus far for Duke as well. However, Duke has the talent and has proven already that he is a much more effective pitcher than his current season numbers would indicate. Duke has already put forth three solid starts in a row and appears to be getting things back on track. He has been more effective at home and during night games throughout his career, and has put forth solid starts against the Braves in past years. Despite his sub par numbers year to date, he still forces teams to put multiple hits per inning to produce runs, as he has allowed just three home runs all year. the Jones’s come into today’s game a combined 0 for 13 against him. Although the Braves have won their last three games, it has been a product of solid pitching, as their bats have cooled down a bit of late. Devil Rays @ Blue Jays Play: Blue Jays -127 Intrinsic Value: -178 Consider Betting Price: -156 Comment: I got burned on the Blue Jays last night, and there is no denying how horrible they have been playing of late, but I have no problem continuing to back them when the odds more than reflect their current struggles. Not being factored into the line is the notion that the Devil Rays have been struggling of late as well, losing five of their last six, and are a team more dependent on momentum. I am a fan of Kazmir’s and feel that he has is harder to hit and has better stuff than Shields. However, Shields is more valuable to the Devil Rays right now because of having the ability to pitch to contact, something that Kazmir is unable to do. Being a strikeout pitcher, Kazmir is forced to accumulate high pitch counts early in games even when he is pitching well. It is hard for him to go deeper than six innings, which is not something you want when backed by the Devil Rays bullpen. Although the Blue Jays bats have been struggling of late, they should completely overmatch the Drays pen. Kazmir is also a much less effective pitcher on the road, and has put forth very mediocre road numbers throughout his career. The Blue Jays are one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball against southpaws and at home. Homefield advantage is magnified in this game, as both lineups have produced some of the highest disparities of productivity at home vs. away the last three years. Burnett has generated some sub par numbers so far year to date, but they may be a bit misleading, as they have been inflated by two really bad outings. He has actually looked pretty good on the mound, but has been victimized by a lot of tough challenges, having to face a series of tough lineups, and having to pitch five of his first seven starts on the road. He is more effective at home, and this appears to be a good spot for him to put forth a solid outing, as he faces a team that he has had past success against. He matches up best against free swinging lineups that are willing to go out of the strike zone, which is actually what he is up against in today’s game. He comes into today’s game with a lifetime ERA in the mid 2’s against the Drays, and a WHIP of .88. He is also backed by the better bullpen compared to his counterparts. The Devil Rays lineup has cooled off, scoring three of less runs in five of their last six games.

Cubs @ Phillies Play: Phillies -112 Intrinsic Value: -125 Consider Betting Price: -112 Comment: This is a really interesting match up as you have two very solid young southpaws on the mound against two potent lineups. However, although Hill has the better numbers so far this year, Hamels is currently the better pitcher and has a better chance of putting forth a solid outing. There is no denying Hill’s dominance so far year to date. He has put forth solid outings in every start but one. He has proven to still be effective on the road this year. However, I still hold my reservations of how effective he will be on the road against power lineups inside hitter friendly confines, as in past years he has been known to struggling in his road outings, and was prone to the long ball. He also matches up better against free swinging lineups willing to chase his curveball that rarely stays in the zone. The Phillies have displayed one of the most patient lineups in the game. Hill is also a southpaw that could be stolen off of, something in which the Phillies could capitalize on. He has also been harder to hit for right handed hitters so far in his young career, which does not give the Phillies left handed loaded lineup as much of a disadvantage in this game. The Cubs lineup is currently on a downward trend, a deficiency that a pitcher like Hamels can capitalize on. He has one of the best change ups in the game, which is a huge asset going up against a lineup that has struggled hitting the off speed pitch all year. He has always been much more effective during night games throughout his career, while the Cubs have struggled hitting southpaws this year, including being unable to get to a mediocre one in yesterdays game. Their starters have just five home runs against lefties this year as well, which is not a deficiency you want when playing in a park that gives away home runs. Hamels is backed by a bullpen that has pitched well this year. Royals @ White Sox Play: White Sox -170 Intrinsic Value: -245 Consider Betting Price: -220 Comment: With each start that Perez makes, he is showing more and more evidence that his career as a pitcher may be coming to an end. He is just far too hittable to be a big league pitcher, as opponents are hitting .350 against him. He has also been a pitcher much less effective throughout his career on the road, and this year is no different as he comes into today’s game with an eight plus road ERA this year. He has just one quality start this season, and was dominated by the White Sox last year. He is not built to go deep into games, and is backed by the worst bullpen in baseball that had to eat up a lot of innings yesterday and was thoroughly dominated by the worst lineup in the AL. This appears to be an ideal spot for a struggling White Sox lineup to get things back on track. They have also always been a much more dangerous lineup at home. The Royals are a rare public fade team that has consistently been overvalued on their road games this year. Today is no different. Their lineup has been dormant this month, and dormant all year on the road. Today is appears to be an opportunity for them to continue to stay dormant, as they are up against a pitcher four quality starts in his last five tries, and has shown outstanding command of late, which should force a struggling lineup to get hits in order to get runners on base. Although he has struggled at home this year, this trend lacks sustainability, as he put forth two solid years at home as a White Sox. He is backed by a better bullpen than his counterparts, which should give the White Sox a decisive pitching advantage throughout this game.

Orioles @ Red Sox Play: Orioles +222 Intrinsic Value: +151 Consider Betting Price: +181 Comment: The Orioles defiantly have a greater chance of losing this game, but this price is simply too good to pass up. Traschel has really looked solid on the mound this season. He is locating his pitches well, making him hard to get hits off of. He seems to have improved his deficiency of being prone to the long ball, allowing just four all season, while he has really been eating up left handed hitters. Although he doesn’t have much of a history against this Red Sox team, what little history there is, it is good, as his only start against them, he pitched a complete game shutout while striking out eleven batters. He is backed by one of the most underrated bullpens in baseball which should force the Red Sox to get to a hot pitcher early if they want to put up a good amount of runs and avoid a solid back end of a bullpen. Schilling has looked sharp this year, but is clearly overvalued in this match up. He has allowed more than a hit an inning in three of his last four starts, and more than likely will not be able to sustain his current numbers throughout the season. He has been not as effective throughout his career during day games, and is up against a lineup with a couple of hitters that have hit him well in the past. He put forth mediocre numbers against this Orioles team last year. The Orioles lineup seems to be coming along since the return of both Hernandez and Payton and have done damage in three of their last four games. At this price, I will take my chances with them. Angels @ Rangers Play: Angels -106 Intrinsic Value: -150 Consider Betting Price: -133 Comment: I am a bit surprised about this line, as I have already gone against Colon twice since his return as he was carrying an inflated price tag. However, he has been nothing short of impressive since his return, showing solid command and an ability to get hitters behind counts early and often. It is surprising to get disrespected by linesmakers after putting forth three quality starts in four tries. Colon has always been a pitcher that has not shown problems pitching on the road and has had success throughout his career against the Rangers. He comes into this game with a lifetime 16 and 5 record against them, and has dominated a few key hitters in their lineup, including Texeria and Blaylock. Being backed by a solid bullpen and showing the ability to avoid the front end in his starts should force the Rangers to have to face quality pitching throughout this game. Loe has been nothing short of a batting practice pitcher in his home park throughout his young career. His home run rate here compared to his road starts is mind boggling, and a career home ERA in the mid fives will not get it done against a team that is putting forth solid pitchers. The Angels have also given Loe problems in the past, as his ERA against them also sits in the mid fives. He is prone to the walk and is not good at holding runners on, a combination in which the Angels could really capitalize on. He is not built to go deep into games, and is backed by a front end bullpen that is not terribly talented and has been known to struggle against the Angels in the past. The return of Gagne makes their bullpen deeper and more talented, but does not make the 9th inning any safer. The Angels are a streaky lineup, and have hit the ball well two straight games. They may be in the beginning of another hot streak. Although they are not hitting the ball that well on the road this year, this is a lineup that has proven to be more effective on the road the last couple of years. They are also a team that hits better during the day ( shown over a three year period). Royals @ White Sox Play: White Sox -208 Intrinsic Value: -238 Consider Betting Price: -213 Comment: I did not think the day would come where I would be laying this much chalk on Buerhle, but I continue to find the Royals an undervalued road team. Although I have been bearish of Buerhle for years, I have always viewed him as a bully who is able to pick up on sub par lineups such as the Royals. His finesse style takes advantage of the youth and overaggressive tendencies some lineups bring to the table. He has had success against this team throughout his career, and even managed to dominate them during his off season last year. Although I don’t think he will be able to generate numbers like he did in years past, there is no denying he is a better pitcher than the one on the mound last year. He has put forth five straight quality starts including one against the Royals. He has always been more effective at home as well, and is backed by a bullpen that holds a decisive advantage over their counterparts. The Royals lineup has been dormant all month and have always been known for their road woes. They clearly miss Sanders in the lineup. Elarton is making his first start of the season since coming off of shoulder surgery. Prior to his injury, Elarton had consistently been one of the worst pitchers in baseball, and has put forth a career ERA over five. It shouldn’t get any better for him after such a major surgery, and has shown signs of not being ready in his rehab starts. He will also be on a small pitch count, which should force the worst bullpen in baseball to have to play a key role in today’s game. There is not much I could say about this White Sox lineup that continues to struggle at the plate, except for that they are underachieving and have a good opportunity to get things right against some really bad pitchng.

Diamondbacks @ Astros Play: Astros -179 Intrinsic Value: -217 Consider Betting Price: -187 Comment: Once again I am betting on Oswalt at home, a situation in which has produce dominant numbers for the last few years. He comes into today’s game with a home ERA of 1.66, and has been able to put forth a home ERA below 2.80 in four of his last five years. He is one of the most consistent pitchers you will find, and has allowed more than one run in just one home start this season. His pitching style matches up perfectly against the younger and more impatient lineups in the league, something that he will get to face against the Diamdonbacks today. Although his impressive win/loss record against the Reds is tough to top, he has actually put forth more dominating numbers against the Diamondbacks throughout his career, as he comes into today’s game with a lifetime 1.64 career ERA against them. Although a lot of his past numbers against this team were against players no longer on the team, he has had success against almost off their hitters in the limited at bats he has faced them. He is one of the better pitchers in eating up innings and passing the torch directly to their closer. The Diamondbacks lineup is slumping and seems to feed off the emotion of their home crowd more than most teams. Hernandez has been solid this season, but should come back to earth some point in time. This may be a good spot for him to get a reality check, as he faces a lineup that has dominated him two straight times. His career numbers against the Astros are very misleading, as he has not put forth a solid start against them in over four years, and seven of the eight batters that will more than likely be in today’s lineup are batting over .300 lifetime against them. Biggio, Berkman and Lorretta have really dominated him. He is also a pitcher heavily dependent on getting the corners cold, something that Emmel does not usually give. He is backed by a sub par bullpen. Cardinals @ Padres Play: Cardinals +130 Intrinsic Value: +100 Consider Betting Price: +124 Comment: I have always found Young to be one of the most compelling bets as a road pitcher. Despite his home improvements this year, I am still reluctant to view him as equally as effective at home. He is a notorious fly ball pitcher that allowed nearly twice as many home runs in Petco as he did on the road last season. He has the propensity to struggle with his control at times, which is not something you want to do against a struggling lineup like the Cardinals that are having problems getting hits. He is also backed by a backend bullpen that may be vulnerable in this series. Meredith just doesn’t seem right on the mound, Linebrink has been going downhill for nearly a year now, while both he and Hoffman have not pitched to the Cardinals terribly effectively in the past. Homefield advantage is minimized in this game. Not only is Young a less effective pitcher at home, but Padres have been the least potent home lineup in baseball the last three years. The Cardinals struggling lineup should not be forced to be in a role that they have to score a lot of runs to win this game. I am a bit surprised that Looper is having so much success in the starting role. However, it is hard to pass up a pitcher that has put forth a quality start in six of his seven outings at this large of an underdog. He has been dominating left handed hitters, and asset that is nice to have against this Padres lineup, while he has shown to be effective in his road starts as well. He has always had past success against the Padres as a reliever, and is backed by a bullpen that has been pitching well. Possessing two solid southpaws in a bullpen is something you want against the Padres. Reds @ Dodgers Play: Dodgers -165 Intrinsic Value: -204 Consider Betting Price: -182 Comment: Penny has been pitching as dominantly as any other pitcher in baseball right now, and has shown no signs of slowing down. He has pitched 13 straight scoreless innings, and is coming off of his most dominant outing yet, shutting out the Marlins in seven, while striking out fourteen hitters. This is a good spot for him to continue his dominance, as he has been a very situational pitcher throughout his career, and has many favorable situations working in his favor in this game. He has always been a much better pitcher at home and during night games, and has actually matched up better against lineups loaded from the left side the last three years. He has also had past success against the Reds, including two nice outings last year. He is backed by a much better lineup than his counterparts, while the Reds are a much less potent lineup on the road. There has been a structural change in Lohse’s pitching ability, so expecting him to return to the sub par pitcher he was in the past is not terribly prudent. However, he is pitching well over his head and should regress soon. He has showed some signs of slowing down of late, as he has allowed twenty six hits in his last three outings, and was fortunate to finish his last outing with a quality start as he was helped out by base running blunders that took three runs off the board. He has never been as solid on the road, including this year. Although he has been pitching to left handed batters well thus far this season, he has been getting progressively worse against them and has really struggled pitching to them throughout his career. This is not something you want against a lineup that may throw six left handed bats at you. There are only two hitters with at least five at bats against Lohse, however, Garciapparra and Furcal come into today’s game a combined 9 for 16. He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Diamondbacks @ Astros Play: Astros -179 Intrinsic Value: -217 Consider Betting Price: -187 Comment: Once again I am betting on Oswalt at home, a situation in which has produce dominant numbers for the last few years. He comes into today’s game with a home ERA of 1.66, and has been able to put forth a home ERA below 2.80 in four of his last five years. He is one of the most consistent pitchers you will find, and has allowed more than one run in just one home start this season. His pitching style matches up perfectly against the younger and more impatient lineups in the league, something that he will get to face against the Diamdonbacks today. Although his impressive win/loss record against the Reds is tough to top, he has actually put forth more dominating numbers against the Diamondbacks throughout his career, as he comes into today’s game with a lifetime 1.64 career ERA against them. Although a lot of his past numbers against this team were against players no longer on the team, he has had success against almost off their hitters in the limited at bats he has faced them. He is one of the better pitchers in eating up innings and passing the torch directly to their closer. The Diamondbacks lineup is slumping and seems to feed off the emotion of their home crowd more than most teams. Hernandez has been solid this season, but should come back to earth some point in time. This may be a good spot for him to get a reality check, as he faces a lineup that has dominated him two straight times. His career numbers against the Astros are very misleading, as he has not put forth a solid start against them in over four years, and seven of the eight batters that will more than likely be in today’s lineup are batting over .300 lifetime against them. Biggio, Berkman and Lorretta have really dominated him. He is also a pitcher heavily dependent on getting the corners cold, something that Emmel does not usually give. He is backed by a sub par bullpen. Cardinals @ Padres Play: Cardinals +130 Intrinsic Value: +100 Consider Betting Price: +124 Comment: I have always found Young to be one of the most compelling bets as a road pitcher. Despite his home improvements this year, I am still reluctant to view him as equally as effective at home. He is a notorious fly ball pitcher that allowed nearly twice as many home runs in Petco as he did on the road last season. He has the propensity to struggle with his control at times, which is not something you want to do against a struggling lineup like the Cardinals that are having problems getting hits. He is also backed by a backend bullpen that may be vulnerable in this series. Meredith just doesn’t seem right on the mound, Linebrink has been going downhill for nearly a year now, while both he and Hoffman have not pitched to the Cardinals terribly effectively in the past. Homefield advantage is minimized in this game. Not only is Young a less effective pitcher at home, but Padres have been the least potent home lineup in baseball the last three years. The Cardinals struggling lineup should not be forced to be in a role that they have to score a lot of runs to win this game. I am a bit surprised that Looper is having so much success in the starting role. However, it is hard to pass up a pitcher that has put forth a quality start in six of his seven outings at this large of an underdog. He has been dominating left handed hitters, and asset that is nice to have against this Padres lineup, while he has shown to be effective in his road starts as well. He has always had past success against the Padres as a reliever, and is backed by a bullpen that has been pitching well. Possessing two solid southpaws in a bullpen is something you want against the Padres. Reds @ Dodgers Play: Dodgers -165 Intrinsic Value: -204 Consider Betting Price: -182 Comment: Penny has been pitching as dominantly as any other pitcher in baseball right now, and has shown no signs of slowing down. He has pitched 13 straight scoreless innings, and is coming off of his most dominant outing yet, shutting out the Marlins in seven, while striking out fourteen hitters. This is a good spot for him to continue his dominance, as he has been a very situational pitcher throughout his career, and has many favorable situations working in his favor in this game. He has always been a much better pitcher at home and during night games, and has actually matched up better against lineups loaded from the left side the last three years. He has also had past success against the Reds, including two nice outings last year. He is backed by a much better lineup than his counterparts, while the Reds are a much less potent lineup on the road. There has been a structural change in Lohse’s pitching ability, so expecting him to return to the sub par pitcher he was in the past is not terribly prudent. However, he is pitching well over his head and should regress soon. He has showed some signs of slowing down of late, as he has allowed twenty six hits in his last three outings, and was fortunate to finish his last outing with a quality start as he was helped out by base running blunders that took three runs off the board. He has never been as solid on the road, including this year. Although he has been pitching to left handed batters well thus far this season, he has been getting progressively worse against them and has really struggled pitching to them throughout his career. This is not something you want against a lineup that may throw six left handed bats at you. There are only two hitters with at least five at bats against Lohse, however, Garciapparra and Furcal come into today’s game a combined 9 for 16. He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Angels @ Rangers Play: Rangers +108 Intrinsic Value: -112 Consider Betting Price: +100 Comment: I am not sure what Santana has done throughout his career as a road starter to warrant being a favorite away from home, but this line doesn’t seem fairly set in my opinion. Santana is one of the most situational pitchers in baseball, and has consistently been one of the worst road pitchers in baseball since entering the league. He comes into today’s game with a career road ERA in the mid six’s and appears to be getting progressively worse away from home, as he has generated a near eight road ERA this year. Add to the unfavorable situational mix is the notion that the Rangers have always given him problems, as his lifetime ERA of over six against them would indicate. It is no surprise that most of his struggles against this lineup have occurred in Ameriquest, as he has allowed 21 runs in just 20 innings of work in this park. Being a fly ball pitcher is also an embedded disadvantage when pitching in this park and against a power lineup like the Rangers. He is backed by a bullpen that suffered a big loss with Spiers going on the DL and will more than likely not have Shields available for this game. The Rangers are a much more potent lineup at home. This is not nearly as much of a bet on Wood as it is a go against on Santana. However, Wood might be getting a bit disrespected due to his current numbers, as his forecasted PERA would indicate a potential future improvement. He also had to pitch to the Yankees in every one of his innings this year but two, and has shown a preference of pitching at home so far in his career. He has been much more vulnerable against left handed hitters, while the Angels lack the ideal talent from the left side, especially without Anderson in the lineup. He is backed by a front end bullpen that is built to eat up a lot of innings and has pitched well thus far. The Angels have not hit well on the road this year. Brewers @ Mets Play: Mets -114 Intrinsic Value: -131 Consider Betting Price: -117 Comment:The public is really starting to fall in love with the Brewers, as they are even pounding them on the road against a public favorite in their own right. Although there is no denying that they have been playing quite impressively, prior to yesterdays win, all of their wins this month came from beating the Pirates, Cardinals and Nationals, arguably the three teams playing the worst baseball in the National League right now. Perez was actually pitching quite well in his last start prior to Green’s error that broke the inning right open. He is finally starting to pitch to his potential, and has allowed more than three earned runs in only one start this season. His strikeout rates are impressive while his control has improved, going three starts without walking a batter. He has always pitched much better at home and during day games, two situational variables working in his favor in this one. Although he doesn’t have the most impressive numbers against the Brewers, he accumulated those numbers when he was a much different pitcher. He had only faced them once last year as well, and dominated them in that start. He has had a lot of lifetime success against a few of their hitters in the limited at bats that he has faced them. Although the Brewers have been hitting the ball well this year, they are overachieving a bit and have not been that impressive on the road. Perez is backed by one of the better bullpens in the league. Capuano has been solid this year is one of the better young southpaws in the league. However, he has not faced many talented lineups, and has not been as effective in his road starts throughout his career. This might be a spot in which he witnesses a bit of regression, as he faced a team that has given him problems in the past, on the road, and during day games where he has also not been as productive. The Mets have been absolutely killing left handed pitching this year, coming into today’s game with a team average of .345 against southpaws. Yankees @ Mariners Play: Mariners +180 Intrinsic Value: +118 Consider Betting Price: +144 Comment: Betting on a struggling pitcher that is going up against the best lineup in baseball always has its risks. But don’t think for a second that you are not being more than compensated for this disadvantage when going against the Yankees in this spot. Ramirez has looked awful this year, but all of his struggles have occurred on the road. When pitching for the Braves, he was always much more effective at home, and he appears to have brought this tendency over to Seattle, as he has put forth a 1.46 home ERA so far this season. Although I am not expecting the same today, giving Ramirez a confidence boost in this game is the notion that he has pitched to the Yankees once in his career, a start in which he went eight innings without allowing a run. The Yankees have not been as potent against southpaws compared to years past, while Rodriguez, Abreu and Matsui have struggled against such this year. This game can get ugly, but I feel that the Mariners have a better chance of pulling it off than the line would indicate. Pettite is a crafty veteran pitcher that has never been nearly as effective on the road throughout his career, including this park where he has generated a lifetime ERA of near five. Although he doesn’t have much of a past history against the current Mariners team, he has shown a tendency to struggle against Ibanez and Suzuki. Pettite has also really struggled pitching to left handed hitters this year, which is not a deficiency you want going in a park that opens things up for left handed hitters and against a lineup with three solid ones. He is also backed by a bullpen that is struggling. The Mariners have actually been one of the best teams in baseball against left handed pitching this year, coming into today’s game with a team batting average near .300. They will put forth six hitters currently batting over .300 this year against southpaws.