MLB 2007

Coming off a losing and disappointing day that could have been a pretty profitable one, if it weren’t for losing two games in which I was one out away from a win. The Tigers were one out away, but a pass ball allowed the Angels to tie up the game and later win. However, the really tough loss was the 2 to 1 underdog Rockies, who were a strike away from a win, and allowed a two strike home run to a journeyman player. I may add later. Red Sox @ Orioles Play: Orioles +120 Intrinsic Value: -116 Consider Betting Price: -104 Comment: I got burned betting on the Red Sox last night, but I had no problem taking my chances with them as a home underdog. However, they have quickly become the overvalued team they have most of the season with Schilling back on the mound. A lot of value has been created on the Orioles in large part because of the horrific career totals Cabrera has against the Red Sox. In past years, the Red Sox matched up well against him. Not because they could hit his stuff, but they have a lineup that possesses a lot of patient hitters that force the opponent to throw strikes, something in which Cabrera had really struggled doing. This had lead to walking 32 Red Sox batters in just 33 innings of work. However, Cabrera appears much improved this year, as his command appears to have finally gotten better. In fact, he has walked just three batters in his last three games combined. If his control continues to be as solid as it has of late, it will force the Red Sox batters to have to finally swing the bat against him. This may be a problem for the Red Sox, as there does not really exist a hitter with much success against him, while there are a few hitters in today’s lineup that have struggled against him. Neither Ortiz or Manny has done much against him either. The Red Sox are a much less potent hitting lineup away from home, and it appeared that they had a Yankee hangover in their last series, as mental mistakes were occurring on a consistent basis. The Orioles finally have one of the better bullpens in the league, which also possesses the ideal depth to back a pitcher prone to accumulate a high pitch count early in games. Cabrera is also a more effective pitcher at home, and has been much more dominant in his night games throughout his career. Schilling continues to be priced as if he were the same pitcher he was a few years back, which is simply not the case- despite his solid start to the season. This may be a spot in which he witnesses some regression, as he has simply has not pitched terribly well on the road over the last couple of years. He has struggled pitching in this park throughout his career, and will have to face a few hitters spread across the lineup with past success against him. The Red Sox bullpen is only solid when holding onto leads in the later innings, something that could be prevented in this game. Braves @ Marlins Play: Marlins +148 Intrinsic Value: +108 Consider Betting Price: +126 Comment: I am well aware of how hot the Braves hitters are at the plate right now, and am also aware of how much Olsen has struggled on the mound this year. However, I feel both variables are fully reflected into the market price, and then some. Olsen has the pitching arsenal to be one of the most dominant southpaws in baseball, and it is just a matter of time until he finds the command that he once had. Although he has struggled against the Braves in the past, his performances are more correlated to whether he has his stuff working in that particular game, not how he fundamentally matches up with the opponents lineup. He has always been much more effective during night games, a situation in which has not had many chances in doing against the Braves. Although the Braves have put forth dominant numbers against them, they may be misleading, as there exists too small of a sample to judge by. In fact, there is just one hitter in today’s lineup with ten or more at bats against him, which happens to be Jones, who is hitless in ten at bats. If Olsen’s slider is working, he could dominate any lineup. The Braves have not been hitting left handed pitching terribly well, and were overmatched by a similar pitcher a few games ago. The Marlins lineup is also one of the hottest in baseball, and has scored 39 runs in the last five games. Today they have a tough challenge against a pitcher that is pitching as well as any other in the league right now. However, I stand by the notion that Hudson will not be able to put forth the numbers he was consistently doing prior to last seasons disappointing year. The Marlins actually hit him well in his last start against him, but were plagued by a lot of tough luck outs. Hudson has always been more effective as a home pitcher and day game pitcher, both variables which were working in his favor in his first start against the Marlins. Being a night game on the road will put him in a more unfavorable situational spot. The Marlins also have some hitters spread across the lineup with past success against him.

Royals @ Twins Play: Twins -138 Intrinsic Value: -192 Consider Betting Price: -174 Comment: Once again, a public fade team like the Royals is overvalued on the road, a situation that does not happen often in baseball. However, the fading tendency of the public on the Royals is countered by their tendency to go against Ponson. There is no denying that Ponson is a horrific pitcher that was dominated by the Royals in his last start. However, prior to that start, he had put forth some decent outings against this team in the past. He has also always been more comfortable pitching at home, while the Royals are a much less potent lineup away from home. Being backed by a lineup which is expected to give him some ideal run support and the best and deepest bullpen in baseball should decrease the risks of betting on Ponson. Ponson is not the only pitcher in this game that has looked horrific on the mound this season, as Perez has been awful as well. He has allowed a run an inning, a whip of over 2, and opponents are hitting .378 against him. He has struggled against the Twins the last couple of years, as he comes into this game with a career 7.54 ERA against them. Even when he was an effective pitcher a few years back, he was never a solid road pitcher. However, he has taken this trend to a new level the last couple of years, as both of the last two years; he has put forth a road ERA over six. There are a few hitters in today’s lineup with past success against him. He has yet to finish the sixth inning in any of his starts, but the main difference between him and Ponson in this game, as the he is backed by the worst bullpen in baseball. There does not exist a bigger disparity of bullpens compared to these two teams, a huge advantage for the Twins in a game in which neither starter is expected to go deep. Mariners @ A’s Play: Mariners +124 Intrinsic Value: -108 Consider Betting Price:+106 Comment: The worst lineup in the American League has just gotten a lot worse now that they will be without arguably their two best hitters, Swisher and Bradley. These two injuries do not bode well for a team that has been struggling to score runs all season. This is a good spot for Washburn to put forth another good outing against this team, as his first start against them this season, he was able to pitch six strong, and allowed just three hits. Prior to last season’s road struggles Washburn was actually one of the best road pitchers in baseball, and still comes into this game with a career road ERA of 3.66, a number that is better that a lot of top tier pitchers in the league. This includes solid career totals in this park, which happens to be a park that compliments his style of pitching (fly ball pitcher). He has dominated a few hitters that he will have to face in tonight’s game, and is backed by a well rested bullpen. Blanton has put forth some solid career numbers against the Mariners, but those numbers are a bit misleading. He has been getting progressively less effective against them, and has struggled pitching to them in his last two starts, including one this year. There are a couple of hitters in today’s lineup that have hit him really well, while hitters with past problems against him have improved the last couple of games. The Mariners are a more potent lineup on the road, and are much more talented than their counterparts. Although Blanton is backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen that has not looked good on the mound of late, and their three best bullpen pitchers have struggled against the Mariners throughout their career.

Brewers @ Cubs Play: Cubs -109 Intrinsic Value: -123 Consider Betting Price: -110 Comment: Adding the Cubs, as the late money on the Brewers has created value on a slumping, yet talented Cubs team. People are putting too much stock in Soriano not being in the lineup, a player who has not looked good at the plate, and does not match up well with Sheets style of pitching. There are a couple of hitters in the Cubs lineup with past success against Sheets, who is not as effective on the road. The Cubs need a win badly to avoid getting swept at home. Lilly has looked dominant this season, and his curveball is hard to pick up right now. He has been dominant on both right and left handed hitters, and is backed by a deeper and better bullpen. Aside from Fielder, the Brewers lineup has not been hitting the ball well this series, and do not match up terribly well against this kind of southpaw. Jenkins is also out of the lineup, and Turnbow may not be available.

Brewers @ Cubs Play: Cubs -109 Intrinsic Value: -123 Consider Betting Price: -110 Comment: Adding the Cubs, as the late money on the Brewers has created value on a slumping, yet talented Cubs team. People are putting too much stock in Soriano not being in the lineup, a player who has not looked good at the plate, and does not match up well with Sheets style of pitching. There are a couple of hitters in the Cubs lineup with past success against Sheets, who is not as effective on the road. The Cubs need a win badly to avoid getting swept at home. Lilly has looked dominant this season, and his curveball is hard to pick up right now. He has been dominant on both right and left handed hitters, and is backed by a deeper and better bullpen. Aside from Fielder, the Brewers lineup has not been hitting the ball well this series, and do not match up terribly well against this kind of southpaw. Jenkins is also out of the lineup, and Turnbow may not be available.

Astros @ Pirates Play: Pirates +116 Intrinsic Value: -145 Consider Betting Price: -131 Comment: Huge bounce back start for Armas, as his starting spot may be on the line if he continues to struggle in the manner he has opening up the season. No matter what home park he has pitched in Armas has been far more effective pitching in front of his home crowd throughout his career. Today will be his first home start as a Pirate, a spot in which he put forth a career 3.67 ERA in for the other teams he has pitched for. Armas still has the pitching arsenal to be effective on right handed hitters, and has had success throughout his career against the Astros, actually only allowing six runs in 29 innings of work in his home starts against the team. Although he is not the same pitcher he was when he accumulated most of the numbers against the Astros hitters, still 1 for 15 on Biggio, 0 for 9 for Ensberg, 2 for 9 on Ausmus, and 1 for 9 on Lee can not be ignored. He is also backed by an underrated bullpen that has the long relief pitchers to fill in multiple innings for a struggling pitcher, as they proved last night. Unlike the Astros, who used their best bullpen pitcher in multiple innings of work, the three best Pirates bullpen pitchers had one inning or less of work. The Pirates also have a good chance to back Armas with ideal run support, as they get to face a sub par pitcher as well. As expected, Rodriguez got a reality check in his last start, as he simply is not good enough to keep solid numbers sustained for long periods of time. Despite not going up against a terribly talented lineup, it is a lineup that has a few hitters with past success against him in limited at bats, and a lineup that has been much more potent at home the last three years. Despite not much difference in productive against southpaws compared to right handed pitchers this year, the Pirates lineup matches up much better against left handed pitching. The Astros long relief is a mess right now, and Rodriguez is not an ideal candidate to go deep into games, especially with a career road ERA near six. Royals @ Twins Play: Twins -144 Intrinsic Value: -186 Consider Betting Price: -167 Comment: This is an interesting match up between two young pitchers with a lot of upside, who also contain a lot of volatility. With all the publicity going around Grienke, his issues and talent, it seems like a lot of value has been sucked out of the Royals in recent games that he has pitched in. He got a huge and much needed confidence boost early in the season with two dominating outings in a row, but quickly fell apart in his last two starts, including his last outing against the Twins. He has never been nearly as effective in his road starts, a trend that has continued this year. Despite a decent start to the season, he has been very hittable, as opponents are hitting .333 against him. He has not had much success against the Twins in the past, including a couple of poor outings in the dome. There will be a few hitters in today’s lineup with solid numbers against him in limited at bats. Once he leaves, things will get even easier for the Twins lineup, as any team can do a number on the Royals bullpen. Bonser has not started the season in the same fashion that he finished last season, but still has the talent and upside to quickly turn things around. He has put forth some dominant innings when you think he will finally turn things around, but has been hampered by the big inning and the long ball that continues to be a problem for him. The latter should be helped out by being able to face a team that lacks the ideal power to take advantage of this deficiency. In fact, the Royals home run leader is their catcher, with four, and have just 17 total. The Twins have the luxury of having a short leash with Bonser, as he is backed by the ideal bullpen, which gives the Twins a huge advantage in the later innings. Devil Rays @ Angels Play: Devil Rays +192 Intrinsic Value: +128 Consider Betting Price: +150 Comment: I am not sure what the public’s infatuation with Colon is, but I stick by my belief that he simply is not going to be the same pitcher he once was, at this age coming off a shoulder injury. Despite putting forth solid numbers in his first start, he was still hit hard, and was only able to strike out one batter against a lineup prone to strikeout a lot. He is also now dealing with another injury, as he tweaked his ankle in that game. Although the Devil Rays are not as potent away from home, they still have one of the most underrated lineups in baseball, and a lineup that matches up well with right handed power pitchers. Although he is backed by a talented bullpen that possesses a huge disparity over their counterparts, it is a bullpen whose three best pitchers have not looked sharp in recent games. Seo also appears to not be the same pitcher he once was. He has been very hittable the last couple of years and prone to the long ball. However, three of his first four starts were against the Yankees, Indians, and in Texas, spots that will inflate any pitchers numbers. Today he gets to face a much less potent lineup that lacks the ideal power to take advantage of Seo’s deficiencies. Despite this year’s home productivity, it had been a team that has performed better on the road in recent years. The Devil Rays bullpen is a mess, but a problem that is fully reflected in the line. However, they finally appear to have gotten a closer that is a much safer 9th inning bet compared to recent years.

Padres @ Diamondbacks Play: Padres -118 Intrinsic Value: -156 Consider Betting Price: -142 Comment: Over the last couple of years, probably the best productivity per price on a road pitcher has been Young, as he just doesn’t get the respect he deserves when pitching away from home. Although amount of value he is coming with in this game is not nearly as much as some of his past road starts, but is still undervalued enough to warrant of play. Young’s height and awkward delivery makes him extremely hard to pick up, giving him an embedded advantage when facing teams with not much of a past history against him. This does not bode well for the Diamondbacks, who have only faced him once( were dominated by him last year), and has just one batter with double digit at bats against him, Byrnes, who has two hits in ten at bats and five strike outs. Expect Young to have a good chance of continuing his road dominance, as he faces a young lineup with hitters that more than likely have never seen a pitcher like Young in their life. The first two go arounds for these hitters should be hard, and being backed by the best bullpen in the National League will not give some a chance for a third of fourth go around if the situation calls for it. Hernandez has been hit or miss the last few years. His only miss this year was his last start against this Padres lineup, when he was tagged for seven runs and 13 baserunners in just five innings of work. His finesse pitching style matches up better against young and impatient lineups like the first three he faced this year, the Nats and Rockies twice. However, lineups filled with experience is something that gives Hernandez problems, as they sit back and force him to go into the strike zone, which puts him at a disadvantage due to not having overpowering pitches. If and when both starters leave, the Padres will have the clear advantage, as the Diamondbacks bullpen is below average and lack a talented left handed arm to counter this left handed loaded lineup. Red Sox @ Orioles Play: Orioles +138 Intrinsic Value: -107 Consider Betting Price: +114 Comment: Once again, the Red Sox are overvalued. Although I will probably lose more times than not going against this team, I feel I could grind out a profit by continuing to bet against an inflated price tag. There is no denying that fact that Beckett looks like a much improved pitcher this year compared to last years disappointing season, but I still doubt he will be able to put forth the numbers he was in years prior to last. Aside from the Yankees, he pitched to three sub par lineups, and has pitched just one road game all year, a situation where he has struggled in the past. He was really prone to the long ball last year, which is not a deficiency you want when pitching in this park. He allowed 20 alone to left handed hitters, which could be a problem when facing a lineup with five left handed hitters with home run power. Sooner or later, Beckett will get a reality check, and my guess is that it will happen on the road, insider a hitters park and against a left handed loaded lineup, all three in which the Orioles have. The Red Sox bullpen is not terribly talented aside from their closer and possibly their new setup man. Loewen has the pitching arsenal to dominate any lineup, but his lack of command makes him vulnerable getting roughed up by any lineup as well. However, I feel that only his deficiencies are being factored into this market price. He has pitched much better in his young career at home, and although has some ugly numbers against the Red Sox, they are a bit misleading, as they have not hit him terribly well, and their runs scored were predominantly caused because of a high walk total. Unlike last year, he is backed by a deep and talented bullpen that could give the manager leverage in pulling the plug on him early if his command is lacking. The Red Sox are a much less dangerous lineup on the road and against left handed pitching.

Blue Jays @ Yankees Play: Yankees -145 Intrinsic Value: -178 Consider Betting Price: -160 Comment: I must admit that I am a bit disappointed in only getting a ten basis point reduction from yesterday’s line when Towers was expected to pitch. However, I still feel that the Yankees are coming with some nice value in this game (first time all year I am betting them), albeit there is a lot of speculation in the derivation of the intrinsic value. Although there is no denying that Hughes, a highly touted 20 year pitcher could be overwhelmed making his debut at home against a powerful lineup, but carrying a similar price tag as Rasner and Wright, who don’t have nearly the same arm as he does, makes him worth the risk. Although his minor league stint wasn’t terribly impressive he is coming off his best outing of the year. He is a three plus pitcher with solid command, which could be a huge asset when controlling the nerves and potential lack of control this spot can give. Having the day off yesterday, the Yankees bullpen got a much needed rest, and will have more leverage in controlling Hughes and prevent him from being in a vulnerable spot. The Blue Jays are a much less potent lineup against right handed power pitchers, are battling three key injuries, and have never been terribly effective away from home. With all the attention in this game centered on Hughes, people are forgetting that you are also betting on the best lineup in baseball bar none. Any given game, they could score enough runs to overcome any potential risk on the mound. Burnett has not looked sharp on the mound this year, and is starting to revert to the pitcher he was a few years back, a pitcher that lacked command and was prone to walking a lot of hitters. He is coming off a five walk performance, which is the last thing you want going up against the most patient lineup in the league. The propensity for this lineup to force the opposition into throwing strikes, coupled with the lack of command that Burnett has shown, leads me to believe he will accumulate a high pitch count early in the game, and forced to an early exit. This does not bode well for a team whose bullpen has quickly become a liability. They are without their two best bullpen pitchers from last year, and are not utilizing their best arm in the spots that they should. Burnett has never been as effective on the road, and has allowed a run an inning away from home this year. He also has put forth some poor spots against the Yankees in the past, including a poor outing in his only start in this stadium. Tigers @ White Sox Play: Tigers -102 Intrinsic Value: -116 Consider Betting Price: -106 Comment: This is the same match up from last weekend, where Contreras was the road pitcher and a nice sized underdog. It was also a game in which I backed the White Sox, which is not the case in this game, as once again, value resides on the road team. Although Contreras had a stretch of dominance against the Tigers in his last start and actually pitched better than his numbers indicate, I strongly feel he is not the same pitcher as he was a couple years back and more than likely never will be again. He has yet to pitch a home start this season since his opening day debacle where he allowed seven runs in just an innings of work, which could be a mental road block working against him. Although he has put forth some solid numbers against the Tigers, it is now two starts in a row in which the Tigers put up at least five runs against him, and he may not be fooling them anymore. The two best hitters on the team also have had a lot of success against him, and the Tigers power throughout the lineup is complimented by the small confines this park provides. The White Sox bullpen is volatile and not as talented as the Tigers, which should give the Tigers the advantage in the later innings. Robertson continues to get better and better each year, and is off to a real solid start this season, including an outing that he really showed to have an upper hand against this lineup. He is also a pitcher that has now started to pitch much better on the road, and has potentially become one of the better road pitchers in the league. Although he has some really poor numbers against the White Sox, most of his struggles against them have occurred late into seasons, where he has always been a much less effective pitcher. He has had past success against a couple of their role hitters, and two of the better hitters on the team who have also had success against Robertson are not expected to be in the lineup, with Thome and Dye both expected to be out for this game. This really shakes up the White Sox lineup and takes away a lot of their power and clutch hitting. The Tigers bullpen is one of the better ones in the league and has ideal pitchers to match up against this lineup. Giants @ Dodgers Play: Dodgers -176 Intrinsic Value: -195 Consider Betting Price: -178 Comment: It was just a week ago when I said Ortiz is a much improved pitcher compared to the one he displayed on the mound the last two years. There was a mechanical flaw preventing him from pitching to his capabilities, which is no longer an issue. However, he is still a sub par pitcher, especially in road starts, where he has never performed well. He has also been becoming more and more hittable in each successive start, and has been allowing a lot of hard hit outs. He has never had success against the Dodgers, and fundamentally does not match up with their lineup. He continues to have problems with left handed bats, which could also be a problem in tonight’s game. There are a few hitters in today’s lineup that have had a lot of looks at Ortiz when he was a better pitcher, and the majority of them have hit him well. He is backed by a sub par bullpen which should allow the Dodgers to score runs throughout this game. Penny has been downright dominant in all of his starts this year, including an outing where he dominated this same Giants lineup. He is starting to resemble the first half pitcher he was last year that earned him the starting spot in last years All Star game. He has always been a far more effective pitcher at home and during night games, two more variables that will be working in his favor in this game. He has always had success against the Giants and is getting better and better against them. The Giants veteran lineup simply does not match up well against them, as they are prone to get overpowered by power pitchers that throw as hard as Penny. He has had past success against a few hitters that will be in tonight’s lineup, including the two that hit in front and behind Bonds. Bonds has not managed to get a lot of hits off of him either. The Dodgers bullpen is deeper and more talented than their counterparts.

Hoping to rebound from my worst day of the season. Marlins @ Phillies Play: Marlins +148 Intrinsic Value: +115 Consider Betting Price: +134 Comment: If the Phillies were overvalued more times than not when they were playing poorly, it is no surprise whatsoever that they will be overvalued when they are finally starting to pick things up. Although Sanchez has not looked well on the mound this season, he will always been a compelling bet as a large underdog, as he has the stuff to dominate any lineup in baseball. He has been battling some nagging injuries on the mound in his past starts, which has affected his command and has prevented him from being as effective as he can be. He is a right hander that could dominate both right and left handed hitters, which is a huge asset going up against this left handed dominated lineup. He has done a good job keeping the balls in the park in his road starts during his young career, as he has allowed just three home runs away from home in nearly 70 innings of work. Although he was horrible against the Phillies in his only start against them last year, his performances are more of a product of whether he has his stuff that particular day rather than the fundamental match ups against the opposing lineups. It was quite evident he didn’t have his stuff that day, as he walked six batters in just four innings of work. Although he is not backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, he is backed by one that got a much needed day off yesterday, as his propensity to accumulate a high pitch count makes him in dire need to be backed by fresh arms. The Marlins have quietly been one of the hottest lineups in baseball. They have put up six or more runs in four of their last five games, and are a rare young team that has shown to be more effective hitting on the road the last couple of years. They come into today’s game with a near .300 road average. Today they have a good chance to continue to score runs. Although Garcia has looked decent on the surface in his first two outings, he has been hit hard, and his last solid outing was more of a product of horrific hitting by a slumping Reds lineup at the time. Last year, Garcia was really prone to the long ball, which makes him a liability on the mound when pitching in this park. Right handers alone took him out of the park 23 times last year, which does not bode well for his chances, as the Marlins have underrated power from the right side. Another hidden factor is the fact that Garcia might have the slowest delivery to the plate right now, making him the easiest pitcher in baseball to steal against. The Marlins have a fast and aggressive lineup that could take advantage of this deficiency by turning walks and singles into to doubles. He is also not backed by an ideal bullpen for a team laying such odds. Twins @ Tigers Play: Tigers -148 Intrinsic Value: -163 Consider Betting Price: -149 Comment: Last year, the Twins did not have a talented lineup, but got by with solid starting pitching, solid bullpen pitching, and situational hitting that did not waste out. This year, their starting rotation is depleted, their bullpen is pitching nowhere near the level they did last year, and the situational hitting is just not their. They needed ten innings yesterday to score a run against a sub par Royals pitching staff. These are not problems you want going up against a talented division rival like the Tigers. Robertson has been getting better and better each year, and is once again off to a solid start. He has been hard to hit, and has pitched effectively to both right and left handed hitters. He has always been a pitcher much more effective during night games and in the beginning of seasons, as he has been prone to dead arm. Most of his value comes in the first couple of months of the season when he appears to be a completely different pitcher. Today he has a good chance to continue his solid start against a slumping Twins lineup that has never been nearly as potent on the road. Robertson has also been getting progressively better pitching to this team, and put forth a few solid starts against them last year. Now, more than ever, the Twins need to get some production from their two best hitters, Mauer and Morneau, two hitters that have been thoroughly dominated by Robertson throughout their career. The Tigers bullpen is deep and has the type of arms that could over power this Twins lineup. There is no denying that Ortiz has been rock solid on the mound to start off the season. However, this is the most compelling time do go against him, as you get value going against a perennial sub par pitcher who has put forth a five plus ERA over the last couple of years. Ortiz has always been streaky and gone a month at a time with solid numbers. But his streaks never last, and always reverts to the sub par pitcher he is at this point of his career. This might be a good spot for him to come back to earth, as he faces a deep lineup that has got to him in the past. Ortiz is most vulnerable against lineups loaded from the left side, which is the case for this Tigers lineup. Ortiz has always become really prone to the long ball, allowing over 30 last year alone. This also is not an ideal match up for this deficiency, as the Tigers have home run power spread throughout the lineup. Although I still feel the Twins potentially have the best bullpen in baseball, at this point of time, they are not pitching like it. They no longer have a reliable southpaw specialist to curtail the effects of the Tigers talent from the left side. Also, both Nathon and Rincon do not look like the same pitchers they were last year, and have been much less effective than their numbers would indicate.

Reds @ Pirates Play: Pirates -148 Intrinsic Value: -191 Consider Betting Price: -173 Comment: Snell is the real deal. There are not many 5’11 pitchers that could throw as hard or be as dominant as he has been, but his arm is as live as it gets. He has allowed less hits than innings pitched in all of his starts, and has allowed just one home run all year. Today he gets a chances to continue his fast start against one of the worst lineups in baseball, whom have been struggling and are not as potent on the road. Snell has also been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this year when pitching to left handed hitters, as they have put forth a .095 batting average against him. This is a huge asset, as almost all the Reds talent comes from the left side. Last year, he has success against a few key Reds hitters when he wasn’t nearly as good of a pitcher. He is also backed by the better bullpen, which should allow the Pirates to put forth the superior pitcher throughout this game. Once again, I am going against Milton. He has never been a good pitcher, and now that his fastball is topping 88 as opposed to the mid 90’s earlier in his career, its hard to imagine that he will ever be a good pitcher. Today he is up against a team that might have more success against him than any other team in baseball. He comes into today’s game with a career seven plus ERA against the Pirates, and allowed ten hits in a little over five innings against them this year. It is no surprise that there are a few key hitters spread across the lineup that have dominated Milton throughout his career. The Pirates are a team better against left handed pitchers, and got to face a similar pitcher yesterday. They have quietly one four games in a row, and are playing with confidence they were lacking last year. Milton is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, which should allow the Pirates to have scoring opportunities throughout this game. Rangers @ Blue Jays Play: Rangers +122 Intrinsic Value: +100 Consider Betting Price: +121 Comment: Whenever I could get positive basis points in compensation for going against Towers, the odds are I there will be value in going against him. Towers got a reality check in his last start, and has a good spot for him to put forth another disappointing outing against a team that he has been dominated in the past against, and a lineup that he simply doesn’t fundamentally match up well against. Towers has a seven plus career ERA against the Rangers, and has been dominated by both right and left handed hitters throughout his career, as they are both hitting over .300 against him. Going up against a balanced lineup that have been hitting the ball well in recent games should be a spot in which he becomes overmatched. There are a few hitters spread across the lineup with success against Towers in limited at bats, most of the numbers accumulated when he was a more effective pitcher. With the departure of Spiers and injury to Ryan, the Blue Jays bullpen is not nearly as talented or deep as last year, which is a liability when a starting pitcher not expected to eat up a lot of innings is on the mound. Tejada seems to be a much improved pitcher this year. His problem has never been his stuff, rather his lack of command that has lead to a lot of walks. However, this is a deficiency he seems to have improved on this year, as he has walked more than three batters in just one start this year. He is also one of the rare young pitchers that has actually been more effective in his road starts throughout his career, and could be overpowering when facing lineups that have not seen him before, which will be the case for the Blue Jays. He comes into today’s game with a career road ERA in the low threes, and has flat out dominated right handed hitters in his young career. This does not bode well for a right handed loaded lineup like the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays lineup gets more depleted each week, as now along with Johnson and Glauss, Zaun is out for a while. Brewers @ Astros Play: Astros -156 Intrinsic Value: -178 Consider Betting Price: -162 Comment: Over the last couple of years, Oswalt has been one of the more compelling home pitchers to bet on. Despite being categorized as an elite pitcher, his numbers have been able to out produce his price tag. He has been able to put forth a sub three home ERA in back to back years, while he seems to have continued this trend this year, allowing just one run in each of his three home starts. This is a huge asset when the home pitcher is pitching in a hitter’s park like he does. Although he does not have the most impressive numbers in his career against the Brewers, all his struggles against them have been in Miller Park, as he has dominated this lineup in his home park. He has also dominated about half the hitters that will be in today’s lineup, including their hottest hitter Fielder, who has just one hit in fifteen at bats against him. He is one of the best pitchers in eating up innings, which is also a nice asset as the Astros bullpen is tired after the last series. Wheeler got a much needed day off yesterday. I am a fan of Capuano, but he just isn’t the same pitcher on the road compared to the one at home. Although he is off to a solid start this season, he has just pitched one outing away from home, and did not look sharp against the Astros last week, where he allowed ten base runners. Much like Oswalts situation, the Astros are a team in which Capuano is able to put forth solid outings against in his home starts, but struggles against them on the road. He has a near five career ERA in this park, and his career 4.50 road ERA is a far cry from his solid home 3.80 ERA. The Astros are a team much better suited for left handed pitchers, and it has already shown this year.

Cubs @ Cardinals Play: Cubs +116 Intrinsic Value: -108 Consider Betting Price: +106 Comment: Although I feel Reyes has the potential to be an elite pitcher in the league, he just hasn’t shown that to be the case in his young career. He continues to pitch poorly out of the stretch, and has not been able to get out of stress situations. This may be exactly what this Cubs lineup needs, as there main problem this year is hitting with runners on base. The Cubs have one of the most talented lineups in baseball, and it is just a matter of time until they show that to be the case. They have hit Reyes hard in both his starts against them, and his inability to pitch to right handed hitters effectively so far this season could be a problem going up against a lineup loaded from the right side. The Cubs lineup has also become much more complete now that it appears Theriot has taken over the starting role, as Isturis was a liability at the plate and rally killer in clutch situations. Reyes is not known to go deep into games, and the Cardinals bullpen is not terribly talented. Marquis bat just adds to the talent, as the Cubs essentially have nine hitters. Marquis always has had the talent to be a solid pitcher, but poor mechanics and a weak mental makeup has plagued him in some years. These are two deficiencies in which he has appeared to have improved on this year, as he is off to a dominating start, including his last outing, where he pitched seven shutout innings against this Cardinals lineup. He has always been a pitcher that has not shown a problem pitching on the road, and has shown to have the upper hand against a few of his former teammates, including Edmonds and Rolen. Last year, his biggest problem was allowing the long ball, which was a huge concern, as he is a sinker ball pitcher. This year, he has yet to allow a home run. He is backed by a deep and talented bullpen that can not underachieve for much longer. The Cardinals have been hitting the ball better, but still lack the talent and depth to be a potent lineup. Angels @ White Sox Play: White Sox -126 Intrinsic Value: -142 Consider Betting Price: -129 Comment: Santana is a fundamental handicappers dream, as his pitching is heavily correlated to situational variables. There is not a pitcher in the league whose productivity has a higher disparity at home and away from home throughout his career than Santana. He comes into today’s game with a horrific career road ERA of 6.78, which is more than twice that of his home ERA. He just doesn’t have the mental make up to pitch on the road, and the longer this problem lasts, the harder it will be to shake out of it. His struggles stems from his lack of command on the road. He walks a lot more batters early in the game, and then just throws it over the plate once he loses the confidence. This does not bode well for his chances in this game, as the White Sox have one of the most patient lineups in the league, that could take advantage of his lack of command. They also have the power spread across the lineup to quickly turn those walks in two runs. Santana also allows his fair share of home runs on the road, which also may be a problem when pitching in this park. Although he is backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, almost all their talents likes in the back end, something that may not be a factor in this game if he continues to struggle like he has on the road. Shields has not looked good on the mound of late either. I am more of a fan of betting against Contreras, but it appears that the Angels recent hot streak has allowed Contreras to finally come with value. Aside from the first inning, Contreras was dominant in his last outing, as he retired sixteen straight batters at one point. He is also an ideal pitcher to go up against a hot lineup, as his multiple arm angles and different pitches can curtail the effects of a lineup that looks locked at the plate. Contreras has always been more effective at home, and has had past success against the Angels, including two dominating outings against them in both his starts last year, as he went at least eight innings in both, and allowed just one run. He is backed by a bullpen that got the day off yesterday. Royals @ Mariners Play: Mariners -129 Intrinsic Value: -185 Consider Betting Price: -168 Comment: Once again, the Royals are overvalued on the road. The main reason for being overvalued in this game is because of the fast start by De La Rosa. There is no denying he looks like a much improved pitcher this year, and has the stuff to dominate any lineup in the league. However, he has yet to prove capable of pitching well on the road this year. Despite putting forth solid numbers this year, he still continues to show bouts of wildness, and lacks the ideal stamina to be backed by the worst bullpen in baseball. Although the Mariners have not been scoring a lot of runs in recent games, they have been hitting the ball hard and been plagued by a lot of well hit outs. The Royals best bullpen pitcher has pitched two straight games. Ramirez appears to be really out of favor by the public, but I feel that he could make for a good value pitcher this year. With the Braves, he was always much more comfortable pitching at home, and feel that trend is more than likely going to carry over with his new team. His biggest problem has been his lack of control and high walk rate. This is a deficiency that should be helped out by going up against a young and impatient lineup that is willing to go out of the strike zone. The Royals continue to really struggle at the plate away from home, and their situational and clutch hitting in non existent more times than not. They have also struggled against left handed pitching this year. Although the Mariners don’t have one of the better bullpens in the league, it has a big advantage over their counterparts.

Dodgers @ Padres Play: Padres -116 Intrinsic Value: -143 Consider Betting Price: -129 Comment: I feel now is an ideal time to bet on one of the better young pitchers in baseball, as right now he is really out of favor. During his first two starts, he was plagued by a blister problem that really effective his pitching ability. During those starts, he developed a mechanic issue that helped overcome the blister problem. Once the blister went away, the new mechanics did not, and it showed when he was torched in this third start. He has worked on this mechanical issue for nearly two weeks now, and it showed to have improved a bit in his last start. The Padres say the problem is gone. If that is the case, you are going to see a dominant pitcher on the mound. He has been rock solid at home since entering the league, coming into today’s game with a career home ERA in the low threes. He has also had more success against the Dodgers than any other team in the league, as he has gone 19 innings against them, and has allowed just four runs. Backed by the best bullpen in the National league, and the Dodgers should continue to struggle scoring runs. They face some very mediocre pitching in their last series, and couldn’t capitalize on it. Their situational hitting is lacking, and they continue to swing at pitches out of the strike zone. They have always been known to be streaky lineup, and right now it is evident that they are on a downward trend. Hendrickson is off to a solid start, but I feel it won’t last much longer. Although he has had past success against the Padres, I feel he matches up better with younger lineups that lack the ideal patience to counter Hendricksons pitching style. Whether he is pitching well or not, he is not a candidate to go deep into games. Although he is backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, it is a bullpen whose best right handed and left handed are leading up to the closer have not looked good on the mound in their last two starts.

Coming off one of the more disappointing 5-4 days, as all nine teams I bet on had the lead in the 8th inning. Last night had makings for a real good night, but it wasn’t meant to be. I may add more later. Rangers @ Blue Jays Play: Blue Jays -112 Intrinsic Value: -132 Consider Betting Price: -118 Comment: Although I took the Rangers last night, this is a series in which home field advantage is magnified, as both lineups are much more dangers in their home park. The Blue Jays were unable to showcase that last night, as they were up against a pitcher with his A stuff. Today they get a shot against a pitcher whom has had his A stuff just once this year and has really struggled pitching against the Blue Jays throughout his career. Millwood has really been hittable this year, and left handed hitters have been dominating him. Putting forth a sub par first month of the season was the last thing he wanted, as he was out to prove last years disappointing season was just a fluke. Today is not a good chance for him to turn things around, as he is up against one of the most dangerous home hitting lineups in baseball. He has always been known to start out seasons slow, and has been easier to pick up during day games throughout his career. Thomas has dominated him, while the Blue Jays are expected to get Glauss back in the lineup, which gives them their dangerous bat they have been missing in the lineup the last few series. The Blue Jays young role players have really been stepping up their game, making the back end of the lineup a real threat. The Rangers bullpen lacks the ideal depth to back up a struggling pitching going up against a dangerous lineup. Despite his five plus ERA, Chacin has looked solid in three of his first four starts. He is also an ideal pitcher to go up against this Rangers lineup, as he is at his best against aggressive hitters. It is no surprise that he has dominated them in both of his starts, as he goes into today’s game without allowing a run in fourteen innings of work against them. Chacin has improved his control from last year, and has always dominated left handed hitters, which does not bode well for a Rangers lineup whose biggest threats bat from the left side. The Rangers have just four home runs against left handed pitchers this year, and are batting only .203 on the road. Cubs @ Cardinals Play: Cubs +104 Intrinsic Value: -131 Consider Betting Price: -115 Comment: There is no denying that both the Cubs lineup and Zambrano have been underachieving all year, but I have no problem backing both at an undervalued price. Zambrano is an emotional leader that brings a needed intangible to the table in this rivalry series. It is no surprise that he has risen his game when playing against the Cardinals, and has dominated them throughout his career. He comes into today’s game with a career 2.50 ERA against them, and has been getting progressively better pitching against them. In three starts last year, he managed to finish with a 1.89 ERA. There is not another park in baseball in which he has put forth more impressive numbers in, as he has gone 38 innings in this park, and has allowed just three runs. Zambrano continues to pitch more effectively on the road, and has always been one of the better day game pitchers in baseball. The Cardinals have several hitters that have struggled against him in the past, which is the last thing this struggling lineup needs. He is backed by a deep and underrated bullpen that has the talent to turn things around. Wainwright is another solid pitcher in this game that has been struggling. However, his struggles might last longer, as his best pitch just hasn’t been effective. He was dominated by the Cubs last week, as he allowed twelve hits and seven runs in a little over five innings of work, and has struggled against them in the past. He continues to put forth most of his struggled during day games when his big curveball appears to be much easier to pick up. He comes into today’s game with a career day game ERA of 5.20, a far cry from his low 2 nights ERA. Last years success predominantly came from his ability to dominate right handed hitters, an asset that has quickly become a liability. There are a few hitters with success against him in limited at bats. He is not backed by a terribly deep bullpen. Marlins @ Phillies Play: Marlins +118 Intrinsic Value: -110 Consider Betting Price: +104 Comment: This is a good spot for Willis to get things on track after putting forth two disappointing outings in a row. He is up against a hot Phillies lineup that he matches up well against. He put forth a quality start against them once this year, and has given them more problems in the past than his numbers would lead you to believe. Much like Zambrano, Willis has been more productive during road games. He has also had solid success against a few key hitters in today’s lineup, as Rollins, Utley and Victorino have struggled against him, while he is also a match up problem for Howard. When on, Willis is a workhorse that could eat up a lot of innings, which is a huge asset right now for the Marlins, as their bullpen is struggling and appears to be overmatched by this Phillies lineup. Eaton just isn’t the same pitcher he was prior to his injury. He continues to be really hittable and has struggled pitching out of the stretch. This is not a good spot for him to bet things back on track, as he is up against one of the hottest and most underrated lineups in baseball, which has given him problems in the past. The Marlins continue to hit the ball well on the road, and their depth really puts stress on opposing pitchers. Eaton is not known to go deep into games, which does not bode well for the Phillies chances, as their sub par bullpen lacks ideal depth, and had to get in a lot of work yesterday.

Royals @ Mariners Play: Mariners -108 Intrinsic Value: -125 Consider Betting Price: -112 Comment: This is an interesting game, as it means a lot for both starting pitchers. Meche pitches against his former team for the first time, inside a park that he has had a lot of success in when on the Mariners. However, Meche’s biggest problems have always been the mental aspect of pitching, and not pitching well under pressure. This has been the main reason for his struggles on the road throughout his career. Now as a road pitcher, he is more prone to struggle in this park, especially since their will be addition pressure on wanting to pitch well against his former team. Although he has done a good job going deep into game this year, his propensity to accumulate high pitch counts early in games does not bode well for the Royals chances, as he is backed by the worst bullpen in baseball, a bullpen that the Mariners had no problem scoring runs against in last nights game. Meche has always been much more effective during day games, and comes into today’s game with a near five night game ERA in his career. The Mariners are starting to build some momentum and confidence, something that is clearly lacking for a Royals team that continues to lose close games. This is also a big start for Weaver, as sooner or later he will have to put forth a start that resembles a big league pitcher if he wants to continue to pitch in this league. This is a good spot for him to turn things around, as he matches up best against younger lineups willing to go out of the strike zone to chase his junk pitches. He also matches up best against lineups that are not much of a threat from the left side, which is also what the Royals bring to table. Also helping another one of his deficiencies in this game, allowing the long ball, is the spacious ballpark and lack of power on the Royals. All these variables give Weaver a good chance to finally put forth a decent outing. He is also backed by a better bullpen compared to his counterparts. Dodgers @ Padres Play: Padres -124 Intrinsic Value: -163 Consider Betting Price: -148 Comment: Heartbreaking loss for Padres backers as they gave the game away about five times in last night’s game. However, it appears that I like their chances a lot more than linesmakers in this game. Don’t put too much stock into Tomko’s fast start, as he has been one of the most situational pitchers in all of baseball throughout his career, and in almost all his starts he has had favorable situational variables working in his favor. This will not be the case in tonight’s game. First of off, Tomko has consistently been one of the worst road pitchers in baseball over the last ten years. He comes into today’s game with a mind boggling disparity of home and away performances over a career, as his road ERA is 5.32 as opposed to his mid three home ERA. He has also been known to start seasons off slow, has struggled pitching against the Padres in this park in past years, has struggled more during night games throughout his career, and has been most vulnerable against lineups that are loaded from the left side. If Tomko wants to continue his overachieving ways, he will have to overcome all these unfavorable situations. The Dodgers have a solid bullpen, but this is a series in which they have a bullpen disadvantage. Unlike Tomko, Maddux has had to pitch under unfavorable situations in his last two starts. However, he finally gets a situation in which he thrives in tonight’s game. He has dominated the Dodgers throughout his career, and prefers pitching to lineups that he has deep history with their hitters, which is the case in this game. He has pitched well in this park, and works best under big parks. The Dodgers lineup is built to hit fastball pitchers, which Maddux isn’t. Although they haven’t shown it in recent games, the Padres have the best bullpen in the National League. Angels @ White Sox Play: Angels +120 Intrinsic Value: -107 Consider Betting Price: +116 Comment: Although I did not expect Weaver to put up numbers anywhere near last years, he is still a much better pitcher than the one he has been displaying on the mound since coming off of his injury. Sooner or later his command will come back to him, and I am willing to take my chances that it will when getting him as an underdog. Pitching on the road will actually put less pressure on him, and actually pitched better away from home last year. A large part of Weavers success last year is the fact that his style of pitching gave match up problems for hitters that have never seen him before. Although this embedded option is quickly going away, the White Sox hitters have still yet to hit him. He is backed by what might be the best 7th,8th, and 9th inning bullpen combination in baseball, so six strong innings could make it really hard for the White Sox in this game. The White Sox will also be without their best hitter, Thome, which might prove really costly, as the only hitters that were able to have some success against Weaver last year were left handed hitters. Although they are not one of the better lineups in the league, the Angels are one of the hottest. They have a few hitters spread across the lineup hitting the ball well right now, which puts pressure on a pitcher each inning. They are also a lineup that has shown to be more productive on the road the last three years. This might be a spot in which Garland has a setback, as he has not had success against this team in the past, and adding more problems is the notion he has struggled against new addition Mathews as well. The White Sox bullpen is not nearly as good as their opponents.

I may add more plays throughout the day. Rangers @ Blue Jays Play: Blue Jays -129 Intrinsic Value: -143 Consider Betting Price: -129 Comment: Tough loss for Blue Jays backers, as it was inevitable that Gibbons was going to have to learn the hard way that he was not using the right pitcher in the 9th inning in replacing Ryan. Hopefully yesterday’s game allowed him to realize the obvious, that Accardo should be the arm handling the 9th until Ryan comes back. This seems to be a cheap price to be allowed to go against a young pitcher that has really been struggling on the mound. McCarthy just doesn’t appear to have any feel for his curveball, and his confidence is shot right now. Both right and left handed hitters have been dominating him, and the last thing he needs to do is pitching against one of the most potent home lineups in baseball. The Rangers pitching coach believes that McCarthy’s problems are predominantly in his head, something that more than likely won’t be able to change until he is able to put forth a solid outing, something that is yet to occur. Even when on, he is not an ideal candidate to go deep into games, and the Rangers front end bullpen is not terribly talented. The Blue Jays have become a much more dangerous lineup with the return of Glauss. I am no longer a big fan of betting on Ohka, as his numbers continue to get progressively worse each year. However, he has faced potent lineups in all four of his starts, so a sub par road Rangers lineup may be the thing for him to get things back on track. Pitching in a game in which he is more than likely able to get ideal run support also lowers the risks he is currently bringing to the mound in his starts. Ohka has had past success against the Rangers, and has shown to have the upper hand against some of their role players when they played for other teams. He is also a right handed pitcher that has had more success pitching to left handed hitters throughout his career, which bodes well for him going up against a dangerous lineup from the left side. Hopefully, if necessary, Accardo manages the 9th. Reds @ Pirates Play: Pirates +104 Intrinsic Value: -133 Consider Betting Price: -120 Comment: I have always thought Harrang has never gotten the respect he deserves, but it appears that he is clearly getting too much with the line books put out in this game. He has yet to prove consistently capable of putting forth solid outings against this Pirates lineup, and has already struggled pitching to them once this year. Although he has been more productive on the road since joining the Reds, this is one ballpark he has not had much success pitching in, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA approaching five in this park. There are five hitters that are spread around today’s lineup that have dominated him in the past, including new addition LaRoche. Although Harrang is a workhorse, if his struggles against this team continue, he will more than likely be unable to go deep into this game. He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, which should allow the Pirates to have scoring opportunities throughout this game. Mahlom is a hard pitcher to figure out, as he continues to allow a lot of baserunners, but has been able to pitching well out of jams. One thing he has done consistently in his young career has been pitching well at home. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.04 home ERA, and has won seven of nine decisions in this park, including a dominant performance last week, where he pitched a complete game shutout, and allowed just three hits against the Astros. What Maholm has also done well throughout his career is pitch to left handed hitters effectively. This does not bode well for the Reds chances, whose main talent comes from the left side. This is also a lineup not built to manufacture runs, and relies on the home run more than most teams. Going up against a pitcher that has allowed one career home run against a left handed hitter can make it hard for the Reds to score runs. The Reds will also more than likely be without Griffey for this game, while Dunn has managed just two hits in seventeen at bats against Maholm. He is also backed by the better bullpen.

Brewers @ Astros Play: Astros +100 Intrinsic Value: -142 Consider Betting Price: -128 Comment: A lot of hidden value on the Astros, as the Brewers recent solid play has a lot of the public backing them. I am not a fan of backing Williams, but I do like him in this spot. He has always been a better home pitcher (in large part because he is a fly ball pitcher who always played for home teams with big outfields), but has said in the past that he feels a lot more comfortable pitching at home. Four of his first five starts have been on the road, which may be part of the reason why he has struggled so much this year. He now faces an ideal lineup to get things back on track, as he matches up best against young lineups that lack the ideal patience you need against Williams. It is no surprise that the Brewers have always been a team in which Williams has dominated, as they always possessed this style of lineup. He has dominated Counsell and Estrada, and matches up well against their young hitters that he doesn’t have a past history against. He has always pitched more effectively against left handed hitting throughout his career, which bodes well for him in today’s game, as he is up against a few hot left handed hitters. He is backed by a decent and well rested bullpen. The Brewers are playing a bit over their heads, and will gladly bet against them when they are getting too much respect by linesmakers. The Astros bats finally came alive in yesterdays game, and they have a good chance to continue that success as they are up against a perennial five ERA pitcher. After a hot start to the season, Vargas came back to earth in his last outing against the Cubs. This may be a spot in which he puts forth two disappointing outings in a row, as he faces a lineup that hit him well last year. As his career progresses, he has become more prone to the longball, which is the last thing you want when pitching in this park. He has struggled against a couple of role players on the Astros in limited at bats, while new addition Lee appears to have his number. Vargas is not an ideal candidate to go deep into games, which does not bode well for the Brewers chances, as the front end of their bullpen has struggled pitching to the Astros. Braves @ Rockies Play: Rockies -126 Intrinsic Value: -171 Consider Betting Price: -155 Comment: Once again, Cook is one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball, and an ideal pitcher to stop a hot Braves lineup. Being a premier sinkerball pitcher, he curtails the effects of facing powerful lineups that have home run ability throughout their lineup and playing in a park that will be live in today’s game. It is no surprise that he has allowed one home run all season, and might be the best pitcher in the game right now in inducing double plays. He appears to be a much improved pitcher compared to the one that he was when he accumulated those sub par numbers against the Braves. He has been dominated right handed hitting this year, which does not bode well for a lineup very talented from the right side. He has shown a good ability to go deep into games and avoid a suspect front end up the bullpen. He has struggled getting run support this year, but this may be a trend that stops in today’s game. As expected, Davies solid first outing was more of a fluke than a structural change in his pitching, as he has been getting progressively worse with each start. Things shouldn’t change in this game, as he faces a team that has hit him well in the past, and fundamentally matches up well with his pitching style. He has allowed 19 hits and 11 runs in just eight innings of work against the Rockies, and struggled pitching in this park. He has always been horrible pitching on the road, as his road ERA is now approaching seven. Being prone to the long ball is also not a deficiency you want going up against this lineup and during a day game in Coors. Most of the Braves talent in the bullpen comes from the back end, something that could be avoided if Davies continues to struggle on the mound and against this team.

I may add more later. Cubs @ Pirates Play: Pirates +122 Intrinsic Value: -105 Consider Betting Price: +118 Comment: In my opinion, the Cubs have been undervalued in almost every game this year. However, the public seems to have fallen in love with Hill, and although there is no denying his early season dominance, he is getting too much respect by linesmakers. His style of pitching takes time getting used too, and the more you see him, the better your chances are. The Brewers showed a lot of improvement in their second go around against them last week. Although the Pirates have yet to face him this year, they got to see him twice last year. Although he has put together solid starts in both his road outings this year, last year he was horrific on the road, putting forth a near seven ERA. He has been known to struggle with his command, an issue that has been getting progressively worse with each start, and has now walked ten batters in his last three outings. The Pirates lineup is better suited for left handed pitching, and they have been hitting them more effectively this year compared to right handers. The Cubs bullpen is solid, but is not pitching near the level they should be. Hill is not the only young southpaw pitching in this game with a lot of upside potential. Although Duke has some really poor numbers this year, he has put forth a quality outing in three of his first five starts. This is the most ideal spot for him to put forth yet another, as he has absolutely owned the Cubs in his young career. He has pitched against them six times and has put forth a 1.40 ERA, and has won four of his five decisions against them. He has had the upper hand against a few of the Cubs key hitters. He has also been more effective in his career at home and during night games, and is coming off his best start of the season. Orioles @ Tigers Play: Orioles +148 Intrinsic Value: +118 Consider Betting Price: +138 Comment: Despite putting forth a quality start in four of his first five outings, including one last week against a team that has dominated him throughout his career, Cabrera remains one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball. He seems to be much more mature this year, appearing to fix deficiencies that have plagued his career in the past. His command is much improved, he has shown the ability to pitch on the road, and has done a good job getting out of jams. Although he has not put forth impressive numbers against the Tigers, these numbers were accumulated when he was a much less effective pitcher. He put forth a solid start against them once this year, and matches up well against them, as they lack the ideal patience at the plate to take advantage of Cabrera’s propensity to walk batters. He has allowed just one home run all year, and has been nearly unhittable for right handed hitters, which does not bode well for a lineup that is talented from the right side. Unlike years past, Cabrera’s inability to go deep into games is not much of an issue, as he is backed by a solid bullpen. Bonderman is coming off his worst outing of the season, and if he wants to improve off of it, he will have to do it against a team that has hit him well in the past. Bonderman has put forth a six plus career ERA against the Orioles, while they are hitting nearly .400 against him. Home field advantage is minimized in this start, as both the Tigers lineup and Bonderman have been more productive on the road the last three years. With the return of Payton and Hernandez, the Orioles lineup has become more complete. Phillies @ Braves Play: Braves -148 Intrinsic Value: -163 Consider Betting Price: -148 Comment: Although I have been a bit bearish on Hudson this year, as I don’t think he will ever be the same pitcher he was on the A’s, I do think he will be an improved pitcher compared to last year. He is off to a dominant start, as his splitter is one of the most dominant pitches in baseball so far year to date. This is a good spot for him to continue his fast start, as he is up against a Phillies lineup that he has had past success against. Hudson has dominated five of the six best hitters in the Phillies lineup, substantially diminishing the Phillies biggest asset. The only hitter that has shown to hit him well is Howard, a trend that lacks some sustainability, as Hudson has become one of the most dominant right handed pitchers in baseball this year pitching to left handed hitting. He has always been more effective pitching at home, and has allowed just one home run all year. He is backed by a solid bullpen, whose 9th inning is probably much safer in this game, as I don’t think Wickman will be handling this inning in today’s game if necessary. Gonzalez is an ideal pitcher to curtail the talent the Phillies possess on the left side. The Braves are one of the hottest lineups in baseball, while Lieber has been pitching over his head. This might be a good spot for him to regress a bit, as he has always struggled pitching to left handed hitters throughout his career, and the Braves have four left handed bats swinging well right now. Lieber is not the same pitcher he was when he accumulated a lot of his past solid numbers against the Braves, and is not an ideal candidate to go deep into games. Their bullpen is not terribly talented and has front end pitchers that have struggled pitching to the Braves before.

Marlins @ Mets Play: Marlins +152 Intrinsic Value: +104 Consider Betting Price: +126 Comment: Good value on the Marlins, as the public continues to back the Mets as much as any NL team, and don’t want anything to do with Olsen. What they are forgetting to realize is how talented he is, and how he rebounded from a slow start in last week’s start against the Braves, and was dominant in his last six innings of work. This is a good spot for him to feed off of those innings, as he faces a lineup that went dormant against sub par pitching over the weekend. Olsen has had past success against the Mets, as he is the ideal pitcher to go up against a lineup whose talent is predominantly better off hitting from the left side. Although he has struggled this year, he still has managed to pitch to left handed hitters effectively, and was downright dominant against them last year. He is also a young pitcher that has shown to pitch more effectively in his road starts, and has put forth much better numbers in night games. He has had success against a few Mets hitters, and when on, could go deep into games. The Mets lineup is slumping, better off hitting on the road, and match up better against right handed pitchers. There is no denying Hernandez is off to a fast start, but in due time will come back to earth. This may be a good spot for him to do so, as he will more than likely not be pitching 100 percent in this game. He will also be up against one of the hottest lineups in baseball, and a lineup that has gotten more talented from the left side, which has given Hernandez problems in the past. Although he is backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, it not as talented as I once thought. The Marlins have been one of the most dangerous road hitting lineups in baseball this year. Rockies @ Giants Play: Giants -140 Intrinsic Value: -165 Consider Betting Price: -150 Comment: Lowry remains one of the most undervalued home pitchers in baseball. He once again is returning to his 05 form which was the last time he was pitching healthy. He has been one of the best home pitchers in baseball since joining the league, but gets valued nowhere near the level of the top tier pitchers that have been putting forth similar home numbers the last three years. A lot of value has been created due to Lowry’s horrific career numbers against the Rockies, which happen to be very misleading. Almost all of his struggles against them happened in Coors. Not only is Lowry a much lesser pitcher on the road, but his style of pitching is a nightmare in Coors, as his looping changeup is just hangs in the thin air, making him a much less effective pitcher. He has actually put forth solid starts against this lineup at home. The Rockies lineup has been underachieving all year and is much less dangerous hitting away from Coors. Lowry is a workhorse that could avoid the Giants suspect bullpen. Although I doubt Benetiz will continue to pitch this well, he is not as vulnerable as he was last year. Fogg is once again off to a horrible start, as he has yet again put forth a five plus ERA, while hitters are hitting .320 against him. Although he has put forth solid career numbers against the Giants, they might be a bit misleading, as he does not match up terribly well against them. He has always struggled pitching to left handed hitters, and the Giants will more than likely put five left handed bats in the lineup. He has also struggled against half of the hitters he will pitch against in today’s lineup. He is not known to go deep into games, and is backed by a tired and sub par bullpen.

Since it looks like the Nats line may have peaked at +258, I might as well put in the write up now. May add one more play. Nats @ Padres Play: Nats +258 Intrinsic Value: +185 Consider Betting Price: +232 Comment: This line is really inflated, as not only is the public continuing to blindly fade the Nats no matter the cost, but they have really fallen in love with Peavy after his highly publicized dominant outing in his last start. Having a lineup that could be dominated by any pitcher in the league, I tend to find value in betting on the Nats when they are up against a top tier pitcher, as the marginal utility gained from having an elite pitcher on the mound does not increase as much against the Nats as it does most teams. Peavey might be prone to a letdown start after his outing last week and now having to go up against the worst lineup in baseball. Peavy has not had much success against the Nats in the past, and being a strikeout pitcher, he is not built to go deep into games. In past starts, this has not been much of a problem as he is backed by the best bullpen in the National league. However, going into this game, it is a tired and overworked bullpen whose closer is not pitching well right now. Patterson just isn’t the same pitcher he was prior to his injury. However, he should be able to put forth much better performances than the ones he has to start off the season, and has a good chance to do so today against a tired and the most anemic home lineup in baseball. In the past, Patterson had success pitching against the Padres and some of their hitters. The Padres bats have cooled off and should be swinging tired bats after playing 17 innings in the heat yesterday. The Padres are not an ideal team to lay a lot of chalk on, since scoring runs is not their strong suit, allowing games to be close.

I may add throughout the day, as there are a couple of teams close to my target. Cubs @ Pirates Play: Pirates +144 Intrinsic Value: +102 Consider Betting Price: +126 Comment: There is no denying that the Cubs will be putting forth a lot more talent on the field in this game. However, it is quite evident that the Cubs continue to play well below their talent level, and went from an underachieving undervalued team to an underachieving overvalued team in a matter of days. Armas is a risky pitcher to bet on, as he could implode in any start. However, no matter the home park he has pitched in, he has had one of the highest disparities of productivity when comparing his home and away performances. This year appears to be no different, as he was dominated in his first two outings, which happened to be road starts, and came back in his home debut allowing just one run to the Astros. Despite a sub par career, he has managed to put forth a career 3.64 home ERA. Even though he has not consistently showed it this year, he can be really tough on right handed hitters, which is an asset you want when going up against a lineup loaded with talent on the right side. He is backed by a decent and underrated bullpen. Lilly has looked really sharp to start off the season, but the numbers he is putting forth are not sustainable in my opinion, but are being quantified by linesmakers as if they were. He, much like Armas, has always been more productive in his home starts, and has only had to pitch one road outing all year. His career road ERA is approaching five. The Pirates continue to be a tough team to beat at home, and are better matched against left handed pitching. They will more than likely put in the lineup five hitters that are hitting over .300 against southpaws so far this season. A’s @ Red Sox Play: A’s +168 Intrinsic Value: +134 Consider Betting Price: +158 Comment: Although the Red Sox have been winning money for their backers year to date, they still remain undefeated and will have to maintain a winning percentage above their potential if they are going to produce a profit behind an inflated price tag books continually put out on them. Schilling continues to be priced as if he were the same dominant pitcher he was years back, and even though he has been able to put forth solid numbers to start off the season, he isn’t the same pitcher he once was. This sub par, yet pesky A’s lineup gave him problems last year. It is also a lineup that tends to hit better pitchers as well as the more anemic ones they are up against, and try to play to the talent level of their opponents. Therefore putting a solid pitcher on the mound has the propensity to be over quantified against the A’s. The Red Sox bullpen has been solid, but do not have the advantage over their counterparts in this series. Blanton appears to be the solid pitcher he was in 05 rather than the struggling and out of shape one he was last year. He has shown great command and poise on the mound, and has been hard to generate hits off of. He has also put forth solid outings in both his two career starts against the Red Sox, which both happened to be pitched at Fenway, which is a huge asset, as this park has been known to give young pitchers problems. He has been dominant against right handed hitters yet again this year, but may still be vulnerable against the left handed bats he faces. However, the potential left handed hitters in the Red Sox lineup come into today’s game with a combined 6 for 33 lifetime against Blanton. He is backed by a solid bullpen which should make it hard for this Red Sox lineup to score throughout this game. White Sox @ Mariners Play: Mariners -112 Intrinsic Value: -125 Consider Betting Price: -112 Comment: Despite coming into this game with a winning record, the White Sox have some serious concerns. Age finally appears to be catching up with them, as players that they were getting productivity from the last couple of years appear to be finally past their prime. Several of their veteran hitters are off to a horrible start, and although they should improve off their current numbers, expecting them to return to the numbers they put forth a the last couple of years might be wishful thinking. The only veteran hitter that has actually hit the ball well this year is Thome, whose absence in the lineup has already proved costly, as they have yet to have someone step up in his place. This might be a game in which their bats continue to struggle, as Washburn is another pitcher pitching like he pitched in 05 rather than 06. He has been locating his pitches really well, and has dominated the left handed hitters he has faced. Whether he was a road pitcher pitching in this park or a home pitcher in this park, he has always been a much more effective pitcher in this park. Not only has he reached a comfort level on the mound, but the spacious outfield compliments his fly ball tendencies and curtails the effects of the White Sox power they have in their lineup. Washburn has done a good job eating up innings, and the Mariners back end bullpen is solid. Vasquez has started out the season in solid form and has always been one of the streakiest pitchers in baseball. However, he is coming off his worst outing of the year, which may be a potential trend, as he is up against a lineup with a few hitters with past success against him. Beltre, Guillen, Sexon, and Suzuki have all hit him well in the past, while he has yet to show to have the upper hand against any hitters in the lineup. The lineup also has role players with not much of a past history against him, yet match up well against his pitching style. Vasquez has never been terribly effective pitching on the road, and has really struggled pitching to right handed hitters this year, which could be a problem against this lineup loaded from the right side. The White Sox bullpen has a lot of hard throwers, but is a volatile group that also doesn’t match up terribly well against this lineup.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers Play: Dodgers -144 Intrinsic Value: -195 Consider Betting Price: -174 Comment: Good value on the Dodgers, as recent line movement indicates that the public is starting to back a young team playing well, yet are failing to acknowledge all the favorable fundamentals for the Dodgers that are making them a value play at this price. Penny is a fundamental handicappers dream, as he is one of the most situational pitchers in baseball. He appears to be completely different pitchers in his home and away starts, and has always been a much more dominant pitcher at home. He has also been a completely different pitcher during night games compared to day games, and has always been much more dominant under the lights. He is off to a dominant start this season, as he has put forth a quality start in all five of his outings, including one in Arizona a couple of weeks ago. He has always had success against the Dbacks and overpowered them in his first outing against them. Being backed by a solid bullpen should give the Dodgers the pitching edge throughout this game. Hernandez is also a very situational pitcher that needs a few variables to be working in his favor. His finesse style matches up best against the younger and less patient lineups in the league that are willing to chase out of the strike zone. This is a fundamental variable that will not be working in his favor in this game, as the Dodgers lineup is loaded with veteran hitters with a deep past history against him and know what he is about. His soft throws also makes him a candidate to be run on, which could work in the Dodgers advantage, as they have the fastest 1,2 hitters in baseball. He is backed by a sub par bullpen, which should give the Dodgers the advantage in the later innings.

Blue Jays @ Indians Play: Indians -140 Intrinsic Value: -154 Consider Betting Price: -140 Comment: It is not often in which I find the Indians undervalued, but once again books appear to be neglecting how much more productive the Blue Jays are at home. Sabathia is quietly shaping up to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has started this year where he left off last year, putting up numbers that could be classified in elite status. Last year, the Blue Jays were the most potent team against southpaw pitchers, but that did not stop Sabathia from putting forth solid outings in both his starts against them, allowing just eleven base runners in sixteen innings of work. This year, they are simply not as potent against left handed pitching, as not only did they lose key personnel to hit southpaws, but the injury to Johnson takes a key bat away that can exploit them. Although the Blue Jays are still one of the better lineups against left handed pitching, Sabathia has had past success against a few hitters that have been hitting southpaws well. The Blue Jays bats have not been nearly as effective hitting on the road the last few years. Sabathia is one of the biggest workhorses in baseball and could avoid the weakest link on the Indians, their bullpen. Burnett is a hit or miss pitcher, that is prone to one of his miss starts, as he has been thoroughly dominated by the Indians in past years, and simply does not match up well against them. There are several hitters in today’s lineup with past success against him in limited at bats. They also possess the patience at the plate that has given Burnett problems. Burnett has never been as effective pitching on the road, and has struggled in this park, allowing over a run an inning here. The Blue Jays bullpen in no longer talented, and lack pitchers that match up well against this Indians lineup.

I may add later. Cubs @ Pirates Play: Cubs +116 Intrinsic Value: -113 Consider Buying Price: +101 Comment: No matter what happens in the continuation game, I view the Cubs undervalued in the following game. Despite being high on Snell, he is no longer a secret, as the general public has caught on to his pitching abilities, and are now exaggerating his abilities by over bidding on the Pirates. This appears to be a good spot for Snell to come back to earth, as he faces a team that dominated him last year and fundamentally matches up well with is power pitching style. He has actually been more vulnerable this year against right handed hitters, which could be a problem going up against a lineup loaded from the right side. Almost all his poor outings in his career have occurred during day games, as he was one of the worst day game pitchers in baseball last year. He comes into today’s game with a career day game ERA over six. There are several Cubs batters that have hit him well in limited at bats, while even Soriano took him deep last year when playing for the Nats. The Pirates bullpen has been solid, but still are vulnerable in the backend, as Torres is still a liability on the mound. The Cubs have one of the most potent lineups in baseball, and sooner or later will show that to be the case. They went deep three times yesterday. Snell is not the only starting pitcher in this game that has been dominant on the mound to start off the season, as Marquis is showing his potential as well. He seems to have gotten his head on straight and has fixed a couple of deficiencies that plagued his season last year. He was one of the easiest pitchers to hit home runs against last year, but this year has allowed just one home run. He has been one of the hardest pitchers to get hits off of, and has been dominating both right and left handed hitting. He has always been more effective on the road and during day games, two variables that will also be working in his favor. He has also had solid career success against the Pirates, especially in this park. The depth in the Cubs bullpen allows them to be built for having to pitch in two games in one day. The Pirates have done a good job winning games, but their propensity to play station to station baseball still exists, making their offense not terribly potent, and are still struggling to score runs. Marlins @ Mets Play: Marlins +164 Intrinsic Value: +129 Consider Betting Price: +150 Comment: It appears that the public mentality of believing that there is no way that the Mets get swept at home has bid up the market price of today’s game. Although there is a good chance that they win this game, there is it not nearly as good as the current line indicates. There is no denying that Sanchez does not look nearly as sharp on the mound this year. His command is lacking, forcing him to walk a lot of batters as well as being much more hittable compared to last year. However, the risk he brings to the table is fully reflected in the market price, and then some. He still has the ability to be dominant, and won both games against the Mets last year. He has been equally as hard on left handed hitting in this career, making him less vulnerable against this Mets lineup than most teams. The Mets are clearly not playing to their potential in recent series, as a few of their hitters are battling a slump right now. They are one of the rare teams that don’t hit better at home, and have been known to rest a starter or two in a day game following a night game. Unlike the Mets lineup, the Marlins are hitting the ball as well as any other team in baseball right now, and it is no fluke, as their young hitters are the real deal. Today they have a good chance to bring Perez back to earth, as he has been pitching over his head a bit this year. He has struggled in the past against the Marlins, and has been a southpaw that is harder to hit for right handed hitters throughout his career. This does not bode well for his chances, as there are a couple of Marlins right handed hitters that have hit him well in limited at bats. The Marlins have scored at least five runs in four of their last five games, have been one of the best lineups year to date against left handed pitching, hitting on the road, and hitting during day games. The Mets bullpen is not as good as last years pen.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers Play: Dodgers -122 Intrinsic Value: -143 Consider Betting Price: -125 Comment: Although Hendrickson has been pitching over his head this season, there is no denying that he has become a more effective pitcher since his surgery a couple of years back, as he added velocity to his pitches as well as improved his command. He has been one of the hardest pitchers in baseball to hit this year, as he has allowed just eleven hits in over 21 innings year to date. Leaving Tampa to go to the Dodgers was also an ideal match for him, as being a fly ball pitcher should be helped by the spacious home park he now pitches in. His finesse style matches up best against the more impatient lineups in the league, which the Diamondbacks are considered. His home woes in past years have been a product of the confines of home park rather than psychological. He has put together dominant starts at home this year. He is not a candidate to go deep into games, but is backed by the ideal bullpen to supplement this deficiency. The Diamdonbacks are not nearly as dangerous of a team on the road, and have not hit southpaws well this year. There is no way Davis will be able to sustain his current numbers with the way he has been pitching this year. He has actually looked bad on the mound in almost all of his starts, as his lack of command will sooner or later catch up to him. His whip is currently at a dangerous level, as his high walk ratio and ability to get hit as well will produce a lot more runs in the future. Although he has put forth solid numbers in limited innings against the Dodgers, they lack sustainability, as he has struggled against as many hitters as he has had success against. He is not as an effective pitcher compared to the one he was when these numbers were accumulated. The Dodgers are a lineup better built for left handed pitching, and are always a more dangerous home team. Davis’s propensity to accumulate a high pitch count early in games, does not bode well for the Diamondbacks, as he is backed by not a very good bullpen. Blue Jays @ Indians Play: Indians -150 Intrinsic Value: -174 Consider Betting Price: -158 Comment: The Indians are the real deal, and the public knows it. Therefore, it is not often that you will see them undervalued, but you will when they are putting forth a struggling pitcher on the mound and are up against an overrated road team. Westrbrook is a better pitcher than his numbers would indicate, and has actually put forth a quality start in three of his five outings. Aside from two poor road outings, a situation that he really struggled in last year as well, he has actually been solid. He was one of the most dominant home pitchers in baseball last year, and has pitched solidly at home this year as well. Being a sinkerball pitcher is ideal against a lineup with so much power spread throughout. He has always been hard for right handed hitters to take out, which curtails the talent the Blue Jays lineup brings to the table. The Blue Jays are not nearly as potent on the road as they are at home. Although he is not backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, it is a bullpen that has pitched well so far this season, and is actually more talented than their counterparts right now. This is not the ideal team you want to pitch against in your first start of the season, but that will be the case for Zambrano, a pitcher that has not looked good on the mound for nearly two years. Zambrano earned this rotation spot on default rather that pitching ability, as he is not the same pitcher he once was at a younger age and prior to injuries. He has not looked sharp on the mound in relief role, and has always been vulnerable against left handed bats. His propensity to walk a lot of batters will also be magnified, as he is up against one of the most patient lineups in the league. He is not expected to go deep into this game, and the underbelly of the Blue Jays pen should be overmatched by this dangerous Indians lineup. Twins @ Devil Rays Play: Twins -122 Intrinsic Value: -163 Consider Betting Price: -141 Comment: Although I am not as high on Bonser as I was prior to seasons start, I still appear to think much more of him than linesmakers. He has been plagued by two deficiencies this year, a lot of walks and home runs allowed. The Devil Rays lack of patience will allow them to take advantage of only one of these deficiencies, and will be limiting the damage of the home run if they are unable to draw a lot of walks in this game. The Devil Rays lineup has also cooled off of late, and were even unable to do damage against Ponson last night. Bonser has actually been somewhat hard to get hits off of this year, and has been striking out a lot of batters. Unlike the other struggling pitcher going on the mound this game, Bonser is backed by the best bullpen in baseball, which should force the Devil Rays to have to do a lot of damage early in the game. Seo might be the biggest liability on the mound right now. You can not be more hittable than what he has been, and it appears that his struggles of last year have only gotten worse, as he has been batting practice this year. Even a sub par road lineup like the Twins could do damage against them, as they proved this to be the case this year as well as last year. They are batting .360 against him going into this game, while opponents in general are batting nearly .400 against him this season. Both right and left handed bats have thoroughly dominated him. Things won’t get much harder for the Twins when he leaves the game, as he is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, that are especially vulnerable in the front end, a portion that Seo has been unable to avoid this year.

Phillies @ Braves Play: Braves -114 Intrinsic Value: -153 Consider Betting Price: -138 Comment: After two sub par outings in a row, the public seems to not want anything to do with James, are not factoring in that he was built to struggle in both starts, and is still one of the better young left handers in the league. This is also a start in which he is primed to pitch well in, as he has dominated the Phillies in his young career, and fundamentally matches up well against them. He has been much harder to pick up and time during night games, and has put forth better numbers at home. The Phillies have not done a good job scoring rungs against him in past starts, were once again overmatched by his style of pitching earlier in the year, and have averaged nearly a strike out an inning against him. He has actually been harder on right handed hitters, and a bit more vulnerable against left handers, which has not helped out the Phillies most dangerous hitter Howard, who is hitless in nine at bats against him. James is backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, and a bullpen whose 9th inning has actually become safer with Wickman now on the DL. Garcia does not yet look right on the mound, as he has been overlying on the off speed pitch and has not found confidence in his fastball yet. Left handed hitters have owned him so far this year, which does not bode well for his chances, as the Braves have some talented hitters from the left side, including one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He is also the easiest pitcher to steal off of, which is also something the Braves could really take advantage of. His propensity to accumulate high pitch counts early in games has forced him to early exits, and although the Phillies bullpen has pitched well so far this year, are not terribly talented. Their front end bullpen has also struggled against the Braves. Reds @ Astros Play: Astros -162 Intrinsic Value -200 Consider Betting Price: -182 Comment: Although on the surface, Oswalt always appears to carry a large price tag at home, he has consistently been undervalued in his home starts. There might not be a pitcher in the NL that I would rather have at home, as he has been absolutely dominant at home throughout his career. Adding to this huge asset is the notion that he has also dominated the Reds in his career, and has been able to win 17 of his 18 decisions against them. He has had the upper hand against a few of their hitters, and has really dominated them when pitching in this park. The Reds have one of the least potent road lineups in baseball, and I see no reason think they don’t remain overmatched by Oswalt. He is also one of the better pitchers at going deep into games, and could avoid the front end of the Astros bullpen. Lohse finally came back to earth in his last start, as he was just not fooling anyone. His strikeout rate is down in two straight starts, and the embedded advantage of facing teams that have not seen him does not apply in this game, as he has now pitched to the Astros three times. Lohse has not been as effective on the road throughout his career, and was dominated by Lee when they were both playing in the AL. He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, which should give the Astros the advantage in the later innings.

I may add later. Yankees @ Rangers Game 1 Play: Rangers +158 Game 1 Intrinsic Value: +110 Consider Betting Price: +136 Comment: Although I prefer fading an overrated Rangers team, this line is terribly inflated. Petite has never been nearly as effective throughout his career in road starts, and has never had success pitching to the Rangers. He comes into today’s game with a career ERA approaching six against the Rangers, and there has not been a park in baseball in which has given him more problems, as he has allowed over a run an inning lifetime in this park. It is no surprise that the key hitters on the Rangers have dominated him in the past, and he will have to face a couple of role players with past success against him as well. I have been saying all year that the Rangers have one of the most overrated lineups in baseball, and so far they have shown that to be the case. However, I have also said that they are a much more dangerous lineup at home and match up better against left handed pitching, which so far has been the case as well. Pettite is backed by a bullpen with their fair share of holes, and Torre may be forced to hang with Pettite more than he would like, as playing a double header (with a starting pitcher fresh off the DL in game 2) will force him to conserve his bullpen in game 1. I have made some money going against Millwood this year, as linesmakers have been stubborn in adjusting his line and had continued to price him as a Group B pitcher, which he no longer belongs. Three sub par outings in a row has finally forced books to adjust, and have now over adjust to where Millwood is now coming with value. Although Millwood does not have the most impressive numbers against the Yankees, he was able to put forth solid starts in both his outings against them last year. He has been hit or miss with the Yankees batters, yet has done a decent job keeping the ball in the park against the hitters he has struggled against. Also, most of the struggles against some of the hitters occurred in past years, while the success has occurred more recently. He is one of biggest workhorses in baseball that could avoid the underbelly of the Rangers bullpen that will be overmatched by this Yankees lineup. Twins @ Devil Rays Play: Devil Rays -102 Intrinsic Value: -115 Intrinsic Value: -103 Comment: Bettors expecting Ortiz to keep these numbers sustained will more than likely be very disappointed. Although he appears to be an improved pitcher this year and has done a good job avoiding the big innings that have plagued his career, he has not put forth a solid season in five years, and at this age, he will find it difficult to return to a respectable pitcher. In other words, this more than likely won’t last. Today might be a good spot for him to come back to earth as he is up against a dangerous and underrated home lineup. In past years, Ortiz has really been prone to the long ball, which is not a deficiency you want pitching in this park and against this lineup. His style of pitching is the style in which this lineup has faired well against, and a style that does not match up well in the confines this park provides. Although he may be backed by the best bullpen in baseball, they are not pitching like it. Nathan showed again yesterday that the Devil Rays are clearly in his head, and might be considered a liability on the mound when pitching against them. Shields continues to fly under the radar, and should have a bright future ahead of him. The velocity disparity of his pitches has really made it hard for opposing hitters to time, and has been getting progressively better on the mound, putting forth two gems in a row. In his last two outings, he pitched a combined 16 innings, allowed six hits, walked two batters, allowed three runs while striking out 21. I see no reason for this upward trend to continue, as he faces a struggling and anemic lineup in a park in which he has put forth solid career numbers in. The biggest disadvantage the Devil Rays have in this game is the disparity of quality of bullpens. However, Shields is one of the better pitchers at eating up innings, while 9th inning leads have become safer this year for the Devil Rays, as Reyes has done a nice job in the closing role.