Giants @ Pirates Game 2
Play: Pirates +130 Game 2
Intrinsic Value: +101
Consider Betting Price: +122
Comment:
The Pirates team is much better built for playing double headers than the Giants. The Giants team possesses a bunch of over aged veteran players that will more than likely will only play one of these games. Their bench is not terribly talented, which should force them to put a watered down lineup in one of these games. This is not something you want with a lineup that has been really struggling at the plate, as scoring runs will only be more difficult. The Pirates are a much younger team whose better starters will play both games, while they have a deeper bench that could relieve some of their role players. I am not a fan of betting against Cain. He is downright dominant. But at the right price, I will bet against any pitcher in the league. I am also not getting carried away with Cain’s fast start. Last year he struggled out of the gates, and possibly the only reason he hasn’t this year is the fact that he got to pitch against his favorite team to pitch against in both his first two starts. He has never been as effective on the road, which is something that may materialize, as he has never pitched in this park before. The Pirates bats have been dormant, but they can hit the fastball, something that they will see a lot of in this game. Cain struggled in his only start against the Pirates last year, and is backed by an anemic bullpen that will more than likely have worked a few innings today leading up to this game.
I am not that excited about betting on Armas, but at the right price, I will bet on any pitcher as well. Pitching against a watered down lineup might be exactly what he needs, as he has been really hittable the last couple of years. He has the pitching arsenal to still be an effective pitcher, but he just has to find his command and confidence. He has always been a much more confident pitcher pitching at home, something that will still probably work in his favor pitching for a new team. He could still overpower any right hander in the league, but is vulnerable against left handed bats. Being that Bonds will sit out one of these games, and was planning to sit out yesterday against Armas to hit against Snell on Sunday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sit out game two. This improves Armas’s chances a lot, as the Giants lack power on the left side outside of Bonds. He is also backed by a deeper and more talented bullpen than his counterparts.
Rangers @ Mariners
Play: Mariners -102
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
I think that Ramirez has a good chance of resurrecting his career pitching in the AL West and inside a spacious park. I like his chances of starting off on the right foot in today’s game, as he is up against an overrated lineup that he matches up well against. Ramirez is a southpaw that can overwhelm left handed power hitters with his arsenal of pitches, something that will work in his favor today against the Rangers lineup whose power is mainly derived from the left side. The Rangers, much like most power hitting teams, are off to a slow start this year. They have never been nearly as an effective lineup on the road, and this year is no exception, as their bats have been downright dormant on the road this year, as the come into today’s game with a sub .200 batting average against southpaws. Their power has also been neutralized against left handed pitching, having just two home runs against them this year.
McCarthy is a young pitcher with some upside potential, but probably not the potential most were thinking a couple of years back. His command seems to disappear games at a time, and is prone to the long ball. He is not terribly effective against right handed hitters either, and has the propensity to leave the ball up against them, which is not something you want against a Mariners team that likes the ball up. He has been prone to start off seasons slow in the past, and is backed by a front end bullpen that is not terribly talented. The Mariners bats finally came alive in yesterday’s game, and might have finally shaken off the rust of the prolonged waiting period.
Devil Rays @ Twins
Play: Twins -161
Intrinsic Value: -177
Consider Betting Price: -161
Comment:
Last start was the first start in which Bonser allowed more than three runs in a game in 12 starts. I like his chances of bouncing back, as he is now faced with a lineup that is better suited for his pitching style. He is good at changing speeds and could be a problem for a young lineup that lacks patience at the plate. It is no surprise that he dominated the Devil Rays in this only start against them last year. He has great command, and has a good chance of out finessing a team that is hard to overpower. Being backed by the best bullpen in baseball is always nice as well.
He should also get a lot of run support in this game as well. Seo just isn’t the same pitcher he once was. He looked lost on the mound in both his first two starts, and was extremely hittable, already allowing 19 hits in just nine innings of work. He has been getting dominated by both right handers and left handers, which bodes well for a lineup that is well balanced like the Twins. He had struggled against the Twins in the past when he was a better pitcher, while the Twins are gaining confidence at the plate right now, and are coming off their best offensive showing of the season. Backing Seo is a horrible bullpen which the Twins have already smacked around in this series. This should allow their lineup to score runs throughout this game.
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Giants @ Pirates Game 2
Play: Pirates +130 Game 2
Intrinsic Value: +101
Consider Betting Price: +122
Comment:
The Pirates team is much better built for playing double headers than the Giants. The Giants team possesses a bunch of over aged veteran players that will more than likely will only play one of these games. Their bench is not terribly talented, which should force them to put a watered down lineup in one of these games. This is not something you want with a lineup that has been really struggling at the plate, as scoring runs will only be more difficult. The Pirates are a much younger team whose better starters will play both games, while they have a deeper bench that could relieve some of their role players. I am not a fan of betting against Cain. He is downright dominant. But at the right price, I will bet against any pitcher in the league. I am also not getting carried away with Cain’s fast start. Last year he struggled out of the gates, and possibly the only reason he hasn’t this year is the fact that he got to pitch against his favorite team to pitch against in both his first two starts. He has never been as effective on the road, which is something that may materialize, as he has never pitched in this park before. The Pirates bats have been dormant, but they can hit the fastball, something that they will see a lot of in this game. Cain struggled in his only start against the Pirates last year, and is backed by an anemic bullpen that will more than likely have worked a few innings today leading up to this game.
I am not that excited about betting on Armas, but at the right price, I will bet on any pitcher as well. Pitching against a watered down lineup might be exactly what he needs, as he has been really hittable the last couple of years. He has the pitching arsenal to still be an effective pitcher, but he just has to find his command and confidence. He has always been a much more confident pitcher pitching at home, something that will still probably work in his favor pitching for a new team. He could still overpower any right hander in the league, but is vulnerable against left handed bats. Being that Bonds will sit out one of these games, and was planning to sit out yesterday against Armas to hit against Snell on Sunday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sit out game two. This improves Armas’s chances a lot, as the Giants lack power on the left side outside of Bonds. He is also backed by a deeper and more talented bullpen than his counterparts.
Rangers @ Mariners
Play: Mariners -102
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
I think that Ramirez has a good chance of resurrecting his career pitching in the AL West and inside a spacious park. I like his chances of starting off on the right foot in today’s game, as he is up against an overrated lineup that he matches up well against. Ramirez is a southpaw that can overwhelm left handed power hitters with his arsenal of pitches, something that will work in his favor today against the Rangers lineup whose power is mainly derived from the left side. The Rangers, much like most power hitting teams, are off to a slow start this year. They have never been nearly as an effective lineup on the road, and this year is no exception, as their bats have been downright dormant on the road this year, as the come into today’s game with a sub .200 batting average against southpaws. Their power has also been neutralized against left handed pitching, having just two home runs against them this year.
McCarthy is a young pitcher with some upside potential, but probably not the potential most were thinking a couple of years back. His command seems to disappear games at a time, and is prone to the long ball. He is not terribly effective against right handed hitters either, and has the propensity to leave the ball up against them, which is not something you want against a Mariners team that likes the ball up. He has been prone to start off seasons slow in the past, and is backed by a front end bullpen that is not terribly talented. The Mariners bats finally came alive in yesterday’s game, and might have finally shaken off the rust of the prolonged waiting period.
Devil Rays @ Twins
Play: Twins -161
Intrinsic Value: -177
Consider Betting Price: -161
Comment:
Last start was the first start in which Bonser allowed more than three runs in a game in 12 starts. I like his chances of bouncing back, as he is now faced with a lineup that is better suited for his pitching style. He is good at changing speeds and could be a problem for a young lineup that lacks patience at the plate. It is no surprise that he dominated the Devil Rays in this only start against them last year. He has great command, and has a good chance of out finessing a team that is hard to overpower. Being backed by the best bullpen in baseball is always nice as well.
He should also get a lot of run support in this game as well. Seo just isn’t the same pitcher he once was. He looked lost on the mound in both his first two starts, and was extremely hittable, already allowing 19 hits in just nine innings of work. He has been getting dominated by both right handers and left handers, which bodes well for a lineup that is well balanced like the Twins. He had struggled against the Twins in the past when he was a better pitcher, while the Twins are gaining confidence at the plate right now, and are coming off their best offensive showing of the season. Backing Seo is a horrible bullpen which the Twins have already smacked around in this series. This should allow their lineup to score runs throughout this game.
Mets @ Phillies
Play: Mets +100
Intrinsic Value: -123
Consider Betting Price: -101
Comment:
It’s hard to pass up betting on the most dangerous road team in the NL without having to lay basis points against a team that is really struggling to get wins right now. The Phillies are starting to resemble last year’s team where they started slow out of the gates and were finding ways to lose. Garcia might be in for a long debut, as he is facing a lineup loaded from the left side, a situation in which he has struggled against in the past. Being his first start of the season, he is not in the same shape most starting pitchers are in right now, and will be on a smaller pitch count as well. This does not bode well for a team whose bullpen is sub par, struggling, and has been known to get overmatched by this Mets lineup. Not getting an ideal left handed bullpen pitcher will prove costly for the Phillies pitching in this division, especially against the Mets. Although Garcia is making his first NL start, he does have a past history against a few of the Mets hitters, and it is not good. He has been dominated by Beltran, Delgado, and Green, while there are a couple of others that pose match up problems for him. The Mets are one of the few lineups that are more dangerous hitting on the road, and their power could really take advantage of this ballparks dimensions.
Maine continues to fly under the radar a bit, even though he has started this season where he left last years- in dominating fashion. Maine has been one of the hardest pitchers to get hits off of during the last couple of years. He just eats up right handed hitters, and his multi pitch arsenal allows him to pitch to left handed bats much more effectively than most right handed pitchers, which is a huge asset going up against this Phillies lineup. Maine has had no problems against the Phillies the last couple of years, and his produced a 2.35 ERA against them in four starts. He has had the upper hand against most of their batters, including Rollins and Howard, who come into today’s game a combined 3 for 21 against him. Being backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball should make it hard for this Phillies lineup to score throughout this game.
Brewers @ Reds
Play: Brewers -115
Intrinsic Value: -133
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:
Although I was hoping to get a little more value on the Brewers, its hard to pass up going against Milton when pitching in this park, as a fly ball pitcher and Great American just don’t mix. Look no further than last year, where Milton posted a 5.38 ERA in this park, and allowed 16 home runs in a little of 80innings of work. Throughout his career, he has actually been more prone to allowing home runs to left handed batters, which is a good thing for the Brewers, whose main power comes from the left side. He did not pitcher terribly effectively against the Brewers last year. He is backed by a bullpen who although has posted solid numbers year to date, lack the talent to keep those numbers sustained. Although the Reds have been posted an impressive record so far, they have been playing poorly, but simply have taken advantage of other teams playing worse.
The Reds lineup is overrated and one of the worst in the league. They are also a lineup that is vulnerable in facing southpaws. Look no further than the last couple of games where they were thoroughly dominated by both Hill and Lilly. This will be the third straight game in which they will have to face a southpaw, and one of the better ones to boot. Capuano has always been a pitcher that starts out the season in dominant fashion. His career first half ERA remains in the mid 3’s. He has just eaten up left handed bats throughout his career, including this year where he has dominated them as well. This does not bode well for the Reds whose three or possibly four best power hitters all bat from the left side. Having only allowed just seven home runs in his career against left handed batters should curtail the strengths of the Reds lineup and this ball parks hitter friendly environment. He is also backed by a deeper and more talented bullpen in this game. The Reds have scored just one run in the last two games.
Padres @ Cubs
Play: Padres +112
Intrinsic Value: -119
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
I don’t care how talented the Cubs roster is. They are playing horrible baseball right now, and are finding ways to lose games. This does not bode well for them, as they are up against a team that rarely beats themselves and thrives on opponents who are self destructing in nature. I am not worried at all by Hensley’s slow start. He is still one of the more promising young pitchers in baseball and has pitched better than his numbers would lead you to believe. The first game he pitched well, but was squeezed by the home plate ump, and instead an inning ending strike three, he was left on the mound an allowed four runs in that inning. The next game he was plagued by poor defense and lucky hits by the Giants hitters. Today he gets a shot to redeem himself against a lineup that has played some of the worst situational baseball out of any team this season. Hensley’s pitching style allows him to dominate right handed hitters, and the Cubs are stacked from the right side. With the way Jones and Floyd have been swinging the bat, they don’t pose a threat to him. Hensley dominated the Cubs last year in his only start against them, where he pitched a complete game shutout, and allowed just two hits. He is backed by the best bullpen in the National League, which should make it hard for the struggling Cubs lineup to come out of their funk. Although they are a deep lineup, they appear to be missing Ramirez more than originally planed.
The Padres are another lineup that prefers hitting on the road more than at home. Today they get to show that, as they face an inconsistent sinkerball pitcher who can struggle against lineups that are loaded from the left side. Although Marquis is off to a solid start, he could implode at any time. He possessed the worst NL ERA of any starter in the league, and lacks control, something that could be a problem against a patient lineup. He has not pitched the Padres terribly effectively. Although he is backed by a solid bullpen, this is one of the few series in which the Cubs bullpen does not provide them a pitching advantage in the later innings.
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Mets @ Phillies
Play: Mets +100
Intrinsic Value: -123
Consider Betting Price: -101
Comment:
It’s hard to pass up betting on the most dangerous road team in the NL without having to lay basis points against a team that is really struggling to get wins right now. The Phillies are starting to resemble last year’s team where they started slow out of the gates and were finding ways to lose. Garcia might be in for a long debut, as he is facing a lineup loaded from the left side, a situation in which he has struggled against in the past. Being his first start of the season, he is not in the same shape most starting pitchers are in right now, and will be on a smaller pitch count as well. This does not bode well for a team whose bullpen is sub par, struggling, and has been known to get overmatched by this Mets lineup. Not getting an ideal left handed bullpen pitcher will prove costly for the Phillies pitching in this division, especially against the Mets. Although Garcia is making his first NL start, he does have a past history against a few of the Mets hitters, and it is not good. He has been dominated by Beltran, Delgado, and Green, while there are a couple of others that pose match up problems for him. The Mets are one of the few lineups that are more dangerous hitting on the road, and their power could really take advantage of this ballparks dimensions.
Maine continues to fly under the radar a bit, even though he has started this season where he left last years- in dominating fashion. Maine has been one of the hardest pitchers to get hits off of during the last couple of years. He just eats up right handed hitters, and his multi pitch arsenal allows him to pitch to left handed bats much more effectively than most right handed pitchers, which is a huge asset going up against this Phillies lineup. Maine has had no problems against the Phillies the last couple of years, and his produced a 2.35 ERA against them in four starts. He has had the upper hand against most of their batters, including Rollins and Howard, who come into today’s game a combined 3 for 21 against him. Being backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball should make it hard for this Phillies lineup to score throughout this game.
Brewers @ Reds
Play: Brewers -115
Intrinsic Value: -133
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:
Although I was hoping to get a little more value on the Brewers, its hard to pass up going against Milton when pitching in this park, as a fly ball pitcher and Great American just don’t mix. Look no further than last year, where Milton posted a 5.38 ERA in this park, and allowed 16 home runs in a little of 80innings of work. Throughout his career, he has actually been more prone to allowing home runs to left handed batters, which is a good thing for the Brewers, whose main power comes from the left side. He did not pitcher terribly effectively against the Brewers last year. He is backed by a bullpen who although has posted solid numbers year to date, lack the talent to keep those numbers sustained. Although the Reds have been posted an impressive record so far, they have been playing poorly, but simply have taken advantage of other teams playing worse.
The Reds lineup is overrated and one of the worst in the league. They are also a lineup that is vulnerable in facing southpaws. Look no further than the last couple of games where they were thoroughly dominated by both Hill and Lilly. This will be the third straight game in which they will have to face a southpaw, and one of the better ones to boot. Capuano has always been a pitcher that starts out the season in dominant fashion. His career first half ERA remains in the mid 3’s. He has just eaten up left handed bats throughout his career, including this year where he has dominated them as well. This does not bode well for the Reds whose three or possibly four best power hitters all bat from the left side. Having only allowed just seven home runs in his career against left handed batters should curtail the strengths of the Reds lineup and this ball parks hitter friendly environment. He is also backed by a deeper and more talented bullpen in this game. The Reds have scored just one run in the last two games.
Padres @ Cubs
Play: Padres +112
Intrinsic Value: -119
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
I don’t care how talented the Cubs roster is. They are playing horrible baseball right now, and are finding ways to lose games. This does not bode well for them, as they are up against a team that rarely beats themselves and thrives on opponents who are self destructing in nature. I am not worried at all by Hensley’s slow start. He is still one of the more promising young pitchers in baseball and has pitched better than his numbers would lead you to believe. The first game he pitched well, but was squeezed by the home plate ump, and instead an inning ending strike three, he was left on the mound an allowed four runs in that inning. The next game he was plagued by poor defense and lucky hits by the Giants hitters. Today he gets a shot to redeem himself against a lineup that has played some of the worst situational baseball out of any team this season. Hensley’s pitching style allows him to dominate right handed hitters, and the Cubs are stacked from the right side. With the way Jones and Floyd have been swinging the bat, they don’t pose a threat to him. Hensley dominated the Cubs last year in his only start against them, where he pitched a complete game shutout, and allowed just two hits. He is backed by the best bullpen in the National League, which should make it hard for the struggling Cubs lineup to come out of their funk. Although they are a deep lineup, they appear to be missing Ramirez more than originally planed.
The Padres are another lineup that prefers hitting on the road more than at home. Today they get to show that, as they face an inconsistent sinkerball pitcher who can struggle against lineups that are loaded from the left side. Although Marquis is off to a solid start, he could implode at any time. He possessed the worst NL ERA of any starter in the league, and lacks control, something that could be a problem against a patient lineup. He has not pitched the Padres terribly effectively. Although he is backed by a solid bullpen, this is one of the few series in which the Cubs bullpen does not provide them a pitching advantage in the later innings.
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Play: Dodgers -115
Intrinsic Value -131
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:
Penny appears to be starting out the season in the same fashion as last year-dominating enough to earn him a starting bid in the All Star Game. His fastball has been overpowering, something that has allowed him to work out of jams. Although he has been known to be a much less effective pitcher during his road starts, there might not be a team in baseball in which he has dominated more than the Dbacks throughout his career, and has pitched better in this park compared to most road parks. He comes into today’s game with a career 2.11 ERA against them, and a WHIP of 1.04. Penny is more vulnerable against left handed hitters, and the Dbacks are no longer the threat they used to be from the left side. He is backed by a solid bullpen which should make it hard for the Dbacks to score throughout this game. Although the DBacks are off to a fast start, they have been helped out by a soft schedule, and playing inferior road teams, something that should come to an end in this game.
Since being called up to the big leagues, Gonzalez has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. His opponents have hit .326 against him in over 100 career innings, and has been ineffective against both right and left handed hitters. He has struggled more on the road, during night games, and early in the season as well. He has also been dominated by the Dodgers, who have scored 13 times and have gotten 19 hits off of him in just 10 innings of work. His finesse style should continue to have problems against a veteran lineup like the Dodgers. Although the Dbacks bullpen has been well of late, they are not terribly talented, especially the front end that is likely to see action in today’s ball game.
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Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Play: Dodgers -115
Intrinsic Value -131
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:
Penny appears to be starting out the season in the same fashion as last year-dominating enough to earn him a starting bid in the All Star Game. His fastball has been overpowering, something that has allowed him to work out of jams. Although he has been known to be a much less effective pitcher during his road starts, there might not be a team in baseball in which he has dominated more than the Dbacks throughout his career, and has pitched better in this park compared to most road parks. He comes into today’s game with a career 2.11 ERA against them, and a WHIP of 1.04. Penny is more vulnerable against left handed hitters, and the Dbacks are no longer the threat they used to be from the left side. He is backed by a solid bullpen which should make it hard for the Dbacks to score throughout this game. Although the DBacks are off to a fast start, they have been helped out by a soft schedule, and playing inferior road teams, something that should come to an end in this game.
Since being called up to the big leagues, Gonzalez has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. His opponents have hit .326 against him in over 100 career innings, and has been ineffective against both right and left handed hitters. He has struggled more on the road, during night games, and early in the season as well. He has also been dominated by the Dodgers, who have scored 13 times and have gotten 19 hits off of him in just 10 innings of work. His finesse style should continue to have problems against a veteran lineup like the Dodgers. Although the Dbacks bullpen has been well of late, they are not terribly talented, especially the front end that is likely to see action in today’s ball game.
Adding this play as this is the third play out of four that just that is trading right at my target. It appears from today’s lines and tomorrows that lines are tightening and being more efficiently set.
Giants @ Rockies
Play: Giants +133
Intrinsic Value: +116
Consider Betting Price: +133
Comment:
Prior to seasons start, I said that the Rockies were going to be one of the more underrated teams in baseball. During the first week, they were trading at prices well below their intrinsic value. I also claimed that the Giants were going to be one of the most overvalued teams in baseball. I also anticipated Zito being accompanied with an overpriced price tag, while Francis would remain one of the more underrated southpaws in the game. What a difference two weeks make, as the slow start of the Giants and Zito has made the public shy away from them, while they finally caught on to Francis’s ability and are now willing to back him up. However, this is where the contrarian role is intriguing, as the Giants are now the undervalued team in this game.
Although the Rockies have one of the most potent lineups at home in baseball, this is not an ideal match up for them, as they are better suited facing power pitchers that are willing to challenge them with a lot of challenge fastballs. Expect Zito to bring a different approach to the table, as he is a crafty left hander that preys on young lineups that are not willing to take his curveball. He struggled in his first two games, as he faced to veteran lineups with hitters not willing to chase his curve, forcing him to fall behind the count, and come in with his fastball that is not a good challenge pitch. Expect the Rockies to deviate from this game plan and fall right into Zito’s style of pitching. He is also one of the bigger workhorses on the mound and gives the Giants the best chance of eating up innings avoiding their bullpen. Having essentially the last three days off, the Giants bullpen is well rested for this series, while the Rockies pen were asked to do a lot of work in the Dbacks series.
Francis is one of the more promising young left handers in the game, but he just doesn’t fool the Giants. The Giants veteran hitters have shown patience at the plate and don’t chase his sinkerball out of the zone. This has allowed them to consistently smack him around over the last three years. He comes into this game with a five plus ERA against them. Making matters worse for him this year is the return of Arillia, who has hit him well, and the addition of Molina, who has always hit left handed pitching well. He is also backed by a sub par bullpen that has been struggling on the mound of late.
0
Adding this play as this is the third play out of four that just that is trading right at my target. It appears from today’s lines and tomorrows that lines are tightening and being more efficiently set.
Giants @ Rockies
Play: Giants +133
Intrinsic Value: +116
Consider Betting Price: +133
Comment:
Prior to seasons start, I said that the Rockies were going to be one of the more underrated teams in baseball. During the first week, they were trading at prices well below their intrinsic value. I also claimed that the Giants were going to be one of the most overvalued teams in baseball. I also anticipated Zito being accompanied with an overpriced price tag, while Francis would remain one of the more underrated southpaws in the game. What a difference two weeks make, as the slow start of the Giants and Zito has made the public shy away from them, while they finally caught on to Francis’s ability and are now willing to back him up. However, this is where the contrarian role is intriguing, as the Giants are now the undervalued team in this game.
Although the Rockies have one of the most potent lineups at home in baseball, this is not an ideal match up for them, as they are better suited facing power pitchers that are willing to challenge them with a lot of challenge fastballs. Expect Zito to bring a different approach to the table, as he is a crafty left hander that preys on young lineups that are not willing to take his curveball. He struggled in his first two games, as he faced to veteran lineups with hitters not willing to chase his curve, forcing him to fall behind the count, and come in with his fastball that is not a good challenge pitch. Expect the Rockies to deviate from this game plan and fall right into Zito’s style of pitching. He is also one of the bigger workhorses on the mound and gives the Giants the best chance of eating up innings avoiding their bullpen. Having essentially the last three days off, the Giants bullpen is well rested for this series, while the Rockies pen were asked to do a lot of work in the Dbacks series.
Francis is one of the more promising young left handers in the game, but he just doesn’t fool the Giants. The Giants veteran hitters have shown patience at the plate and don’t chase his sinkerball out of the zone. This has allowed them to consistently smack him around over the last three years. He comes into this game with a five plus ERA against them. Making matters worse for him this year is the return of Arillia, who has hit him well, and the addition of Molina, who has always hit left handed pitching well. He is also backed by a sub par bullpen that has been struggling on the mound of late.
I may add some plays throughout the day.
Pirates @ Cardinals
Play: Pirates +162
Intrinsic Value +127
Consider Betting Price: +147
Comment:
This line is simply way off, as the public is overrating the Cardinals and Wainwright, and are failing to realize how poorly the Cardinals have been playing of late, and that notion that Wainwright is not the only young pitcher on the mound who has the ability to dominate. This is not a good match up for the Cardinals dormant bats to start coming alive. They have been one of the more inferior lineups in the league against southpaws over the last couple of years, and will have to now overcome this deficiency against one of the more underrated ones. It was only a week ago in which Gorzelanny faced the Cardinals, and was able to pitch seven scoreless innings. And now he is a +162 underdog? He has been incredibly hard to hit for both right and left handed hitters, coming into today’s game with a career left handed OBA of .192. He combines a mid 90’s fastball with an overpowering slider, and has allowed just four career home runs. He has been hard to pick up during the day, and pitches well out of jams. Although his stamina is lacking, he is backed by an underrated bullpen. The Cardinals continue to struggle against southpaws, and are prone to resting a starter or two in day games following night games. Its hard to imagine Edmonds playing in this game.
Wainwright is the real deal, but that is factored in the line, and then some. The Pirates got a good look at him last week, and used the right approach against him, as they were patient at the plate, and forced him to pitch strikes. This allowed them to put 11 runners on base against him. Wainwright is easier to pick up during day games, as his day game ERA is nearly twice that of his night. He still can’t pitch to left handed hitters effectively and has the propensity to accumulate high pitch counts. He is backed by an overrated bullpen. The Pirates have a greater chance of losing this game than winning, but a much better chance than the current odds reflect.
Rangers @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -132
Intrinsic Value: -147
Consider Betting Price: -133
Comment:
Tejada is a very situational pitcher that is dependent on the lineup he is up against. He has a quality arsenal of pitches, but lacks the command to be effective against patient lineups that force him to throw strikes. This does not bode well for his chances, as the White Sox possess one of the most patient lineups in the league. He also hasn’t learned how to pitch to left handed batters, and is prone to allowing the walk and long ball against them. The White Sox have a quality set of patient left handed bats with power, and could take advantage of this deficiency in a hitter’s ball park. There is no denying that the White Sox bats are off to a slow start and are prone to regress from the last couple of years. However, they are too talented and deep to continue to play this poorly, and have been plagued by having to face a lot of quality pitchers that match up well against them, which is not the case in tonight’s game. They are a much more dangerous lineup at home and against right handed pitchers. Although the Rangers have a decent bullpen, they are back end heavy, and lack the ideal depth most quality bullpens have. Tejada is not known to go deep into games, and is more than likely going to be followed by sub par pitching.
With the way Buerhle and Contreras have quickly gone downhill, Garland might be the best pitcher on the team. He is coming off a dominating outing, and has pitched well in this park despite being one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. Although he has some poor career numbers against the Rangers, they are a bit misleading, as he dominated them last year, putting for a sub one WHIP in over 20 innings of work. The Rangers have one of the most overrated lineups in baseball. The White Sox bullpen is better rested compared to most of the games they have had to pitch in this season.
0
I may add some plays throughout the day.
Pirates @ Cardinals
Play: Pirates +162
Intrinsic Value +127
Consider Betting Price: +147
Comment:
This line is simply way off, as the public is overrating the Cardinals and Wainwright, and are failing to realize how poorly the Cardinals have been playing of late, and that notion that Wainwright is not the only young pitcher on the mound who has the ability to dominate. This is not a good match up for the Cardinals dormant bats to start coming alive. They have been one of the more inferior lineups in the league against southpaws over the last couple of years, and will have to now overcome this deficiency against one of the more underrated ones. It was only a week ago in which Gorzelanny faced the Cardinals, and was able to pitch seven scoreless innings. And now he is a +162 underdog? He has been incredibly hard to hit for both right and left handed hitters, coming into today’s game with a career left handed OBA of .192. He combines a mid 90’s fastball with an overpowering slider, and has allowed just four career home runs. He has been hard to pick up during the day, and pitches well out of jams. Although his stamina is lacking, he is backed by an underrated bullpen. The Cardinals continue to struggle against southpaws, and are prone to resting a starter or two in day games following night games. Its hard to imagine Edmonds playing in this game.
Wainwright is the real deal, but that is factored in the line, and then some. The Pirates got a good look at him last week, and used the right approach against him, as they were patient at the plate, and forced him to pitch strikes. This allowed them to put 11 runners on base against him. Wainwright is easier to pick up during day games, as his day game ERA is nearly twice that of his night. He still can’t pitch to left handed hitters effectively and has the propensity to accumulate high pitch counts. He is backed by an overrated bullpen. The Pirates have a greater chance of losing this game than winning, but a much better chance than the current odds reflect.
Rangers @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -132
Intrinsic Value: -147
Consider Betting Price: -133
Comment:
Tejada is a very situational pitcher that is dependent on the lineup he is up against. He has a quality arsenal of pitches, but lacks the command to be effective against patient lineups that force him to throw strikes. This does not bode well for his chances, as the White Sox possess one of the most patient lineups in the league. He also hasn’t learned how to pitch to left handed batters, and is prone to allowing the walk and long ball against them. The White Sox have a quality set of patient left handed bats with power, and could take advantage of this deficiency in a hitter’s ball park. There is no denying that the White Sox bats are off to a slow start and are prone to regress from the last couple of years. However, they are too talented and deep to continue to play this poorly, and have been plagued by having to face a lot of quality pitchers that match up well against them, which is not the case in tonight’s game. They are a much more dangerous lineup at home and against right handed pitchers. Although the Rangers have a decent bullpen, they are back end heavy, and lack the ideal depth most quality bullpens have. Tejada is not known to go deep into games, and is more than likely going to be followed by sub par pitching.
With the way Buerhle and Contreras have quickly gone downhill, Garland might be the best pitcher on the team. He is coming off a dominating outing, and has pitched well in this park despite being one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. Although he has some poor career numbers against the Rangers, they are a bit misleading, as he dominated them last year, putting for a sub one WHIP in over 20 innings of work. The Rangers have one of the most overrated lineups in baseball. The White Sox bullpen is better rested compared to most of the games they have had to pitch in this season.
Giants @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -102
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
I am a big fan of Cain’s, and think he is going to be a top five pitcher for many years to come. However, I think he is getting a bit too much respect in this game. He really struggled early last year, and despite his dominant start, it is inconclusive whether it will be the same case this year. His first two outings were against the Padres, a team that he has had more success compared to any other team in the league. He has been known to struggle much more on the road, expect when pitching in Petco, which was the case in his only road start this year. This will be a true test, as he now has to face a lineup that matches up well with his style, inside a park in which he has struggled pitching in the past, and against a couple of hitters that have hit him well in past years. Cain is also not pitching for the ideal team. He has the propensity to accumulate high pitch counts early in games, which forces him to leave games early, even when he is dominant. Being backed by a sub par bullpen decreases his value. The Rockies have one of the most talented lineups in the NL, and despite not showing it last night, they match up much better against a pitcher like Cain, who tries to over power them.
I am impressed with the way Hirsh has pitched his first two games. He has a good shot to put forth his third straight solid start, as he is up against a sub par lineup. Don’t put too much stock in the last couple of games in which the Giants bats dominated in. They were both against southpaw pitchers that simply came out flat in the game. Tonight will be a much different situation, as they are up against a 6’8 right handed pitcher that is hard to pick up. He throws a mid 90’s fastball and compliments it with a plus slider and changeup. He goes after hitters and tries to overpower them, which does not bode well for an aging lineup that can be overpowered. He has been hard to hit for left handed hitters, which also doesn’t bode well for a Giants team whose main talent comes from the left side. Although the Rockies bullpen is not as talented or efficient as last year, this is one series in which they do not have a bullpen disadvantage.
0
Giants @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -102
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
I am a big fan of Cain’s, and think he is going to be a top five pitcher for many years to come. However, I think he is getting a bit too much respect in this game. He really struggled early last year, and despite his dominant start, it is inconclusive whether it will be the same case this year. His first two outings were against the Padres, a team that he has had more success compared to any other team in the league. He has been known to struggle much more on the road, expect when pitching in Petco, which was the case in his only road start this year. This will be a true test, as he now has to face a lineup that matches up well with his style, inside a park in which he has struggled pitching in the past, and against a couple of hitters that have hit him well in past years. Cain is also not pitching for the ideal team. He has the propensity to accumulate high pitch counts early in games, which forces him to leave games early, even when he is dominant. Being backed by a sub par bullpen decreases his value. The Rockies have one of the most talented lineups in the NL, and despite not showing it last night, they match up much better against a pitcher like Cain, who tries to over power them.
I am impressed with the way Hirsh has pitched his first two games. He has a good shot to put forth his third straight solid start, as he is up against a sub par lineup. Don’t put too much stock in the last couple of games in which the Giants bats dominated in. They were both against southpaw pitchers that simply came out flat in the game. Tonight will be a much different situation, as they are up against a 6’8 right handed pitcher that is hard to pick up. He throws a mid 90’s fastball and compliments it with a plus slider and changeup. He goes after hitters and tries to overpower them, which does not bode well for an aging lineup that can be overpowered. He has been hard to hit for left handed hitters, which also doesn’t bode well for a Giants team whose main talent comes from the left side. Although the Rockies bullpen is not as talented or efficient as last year, this is one series in which they do not have a bullpen disadvantage.
Mets @ Phillies
Play: Mets -101
Intrinsic Value: -120
Consider Betting Price: -101
Comment:
Last time out, Glavine put forth a solid outing against the Phillies even though he had a few variables working against him. He was pitching in cold weather (even colder than tonight’s), continued to not have an answer for Rollins, and was pitching into what might be the smallest strike zone in baseball (which is a huge concern for him). Tonight he gets one of the bigger zones in baseball, which should allow Glavine to better work the corners. He still has the upper hand against Utley and Howard, and the Phillies are better suited going up against right handed power pitchers than left handed finesse pitchers. Being backed by one of the better bullpens in baseball will continue to allow the Mets to have the edge in the later innings against this Phillies ball club. The Phillies thrive on momentum and confidence, two things that have been lacking all year.
0
Mets @ Phillies
Play: Mets -101
Intrinsic Value: -120
Consider Betting Price: -101
Comment:
Last time out, Glavine put forth a solid outing against the Phillies even though he had a few variables working against him. He was pitching in cold weather (even colder than tonight’s), continued to not have an answer for Rollins, and was pitching into what might be the smallest strike zone in baseball (which is a huge concern for him). Tonight he gets one of the bigger zones in baseball, which should allow Glavine to better work the corners. He still has the upper hand against Utley and Howard, and the Phillies are better suited going up against right handed power pitchers than left handed finesse pitchers. Being backed by one of the better bullpens in baseball will continue to allow the Mets to have the edge in the later innings against this Phillies ball club. The Phillies thrive on momentum and confidence, two things that have been lacking all year.
I may add plays later.
Angels @ A’s
Play: Angels +110
Intrinsic Value: -110
Consider Betting Price: +104
Comment:
There is no denying that Guerrero’s absence will hurt the Angels in this particular match up. In fact, it has a 7 cent change in my intrinsic value, which is probably the biggest intrinsic value change due to injury this season. However, I feel that I am being more than compensate (like most big name injuries) with the change in the market price. Haren is one of the underrated and consistent pitchers in baseball. He is also off to a solid start. However, the lack of run support that A’s dormant lineup has been giving their starting pitchers really diminishes the assets they bring to the table. Haren also struggled last year against the Angels, allowing 18 runs in just over 30 innings of work. Guerrero is not the only hitter on the Angels that has had past success against him, as there are three others that have hit him well in the past, while a couple other young bats that much up well against his style of pitching. Haren also struggles holding runners on, which could be a problem in this game against the Angels. Home field advantage is also minimized in this game, as neither pitcher has shown much of a preference pitching at home, while neither offense has hit much better at home the last couple of years either. The A’s have an elite bullpen, but this is one of the few series that they do not have much of an edge in the later innings thanks to their bullpen.
I really like how Lackey matches up against the A’s. He is an emotional pitcher that should thrive on redemption after getting in a fight with them last year. He has always dominated the A’s throughout his career, and has pitched even better against them since that incident. He is off to a solid start this season, which includes an excellent outing against them a couple of weeks ago, where he allowed just one run in seven innings of work. There are a few hitters in today’s lineup that have struggled against him in the past. Being backed by an elite bullpen should make it hard for the A’s to score throughout this game. Lackey was also one of the most dominant road and day game pitchers in baseball last year, two variables that should be working in his favor this game. The A’s have the worst lineup in the American League, and they have been playing like that all season. They make for a much more compelling bet later in the season when they have the tendency to turn it on.
Mets @ Marlins
Play: Mets +110
Intrinsic Value: -113
Consider Betting Price: +102
Comment:
This is another game in which home field advantage is minimized. The Mets are the best road hitting team in the league the last couple of years. Maine has actually pitched better on the road since joining the Mets. Willis has the propensity to over pitch during his home starts, and it has reflected in his numbers that last couple of years. The Marlins are another lineup that has been better hitting away from home as well. There is no denying that Willis makes for a tough match up against a left handed loaded lineup like the Mets. He dominated them last year. However, the addition of Alou, who has had past success against him and replacing Franco for Delgado should minimize the dominance Willis has over them. The absence of Lo Ducca will also not hurt too much, as Castro appears to be swinging the bat well and has had past success against Willis. The fact that the Mets have a couple of switch hitters on the team, allows them to counter southpaws better than most teams that are loaded from the left side. In fact, if Franco plays this game, the Mets will be putting six of their 8 hitters in which have had success against him, and the only two not considered having success against him, are coming into today’s game with a .260 or better average. The Mets are also solid at working opponents pitch count, and Willis is backed by a sub par bullpen.
I am doubtful that Maine will be able to continue to put forth the numbers that he has the last couple of years, but it is still quite evident linesmakers are not giving him the respect he deserves. I have no problem backing him when he is coming with value. Maine has been unhittable the last couple of years, and comes into today’s game with a career OBA of .225. His problem has been his lack of command, something that should be helped out by a young and impatient lineup like the Marlins. He has dominated both right and left handed hitters, which should allow him to counter the effects of the Marlins having balance in their lineup. He has shown an ability to pitch well on the road as well. the Marlins bats appear to be slowing down, as they have scored 1,3 and 4 runs in the last three games. Cabrera looks like he tweaked his back a couple of games ago, and has gone 0 for 11 since then. Being backed by a top tier bullpen should allow the Mets to have the advantage in the later innings.
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays +125
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: -103
Comment:
I have no idea why the Red Sox are favored in this game. Granted the Blue Jays are missing some key players, but they have been one of the most dangerous home lineups in baseball the last couple of years, while the Red Sox continue to not produce on the road. Wakefield performed really poorly on the road last year, including a poor outing in Toronto. Although he comes into today’s game with solid career numbers against the Blue Jays, he has never had success in this park, as his career ERA here is approaching five. There are a couple of hitters in today’s lineup that have proven capable of hitting the knuckleball, while Johnson’s injury in the long run will have a negative effect, it won’t in this game as he has never been able to hit the knuckleball.
There is no denying that Ohka has been getting progressively worse, but he is a better pitcher than the one his numbers of last year and the beginning of this year reflect. Today might be a good spot for him to put forth a solid outing, as he is up against a very mediocre road offense that has not seen much of him, giving him the advantage the first two go a rounds in the lineup. Yesterday was the third time out of seven road games in which the Red Sox lineup scored one run or less. Ryan’s injury might be a short term advantage, as his replacements have filled in rather nicely.
0
I may add plays later.
Angels @ A’s
Play: Angels +110
Intrinsic Value: -110
Consider Betting Price: +104
Comment:
There is no denying that Guerrero’s absence will hurt the Angels in this particular match up. In fact, it has a 7 cent change in my intrinsic value, which is probably the biggest intrinsic value change due to injury this season. However, I feel that I am being more than compensate (like most big name injuries) with the change in the market price. Haren is one of the underrated and consistent pitchers in baseball. He is also off to a solid start. However, the lack of run support that A’s dormant lineup has been giving their starting pitchers really diminishes the assets they bring to the table. Haren also struggled last year against the Angels, allowing 18 runs in just over 30 innings of work. Guerrero is not the only hitter on the Angels that has had past success against him, as there are three others that have hit him well in the past, while a couple other young bats that much up well against his style of pitching. Haren also struggles holding runners on, which could be a problem in this game against the Angels. Home field advantage is also minimized in this game, as neither pitcher has shown much of a preference pitching at home, while neither offense has hit much better at home the last couple of years either. The A’s have an elite bullpen, but this is one of the few series that they do not have much of an edge in the later innings thanks to their bullpen.
I really like how Lackey matches up against the A’s. He is an emotional pitcher that should thrive on redemption after getting in a fight with them last year. He has always dominated the A’s throughout his career, and has pitched even better against them since that incident. He is off to a solid start this season, which includes an excellent outing against them a couple of weeks ago, where he allowed just one run in seven innings of work. There are a few hitters in today’s lineup that have struggled against him in the past. Being backed by an elite bullpen should make it hard for the A’s to score throughout this game. Lackey was also one of the most dominant road and day game pitchers in baseball last year, two variables that should be working in his favor this game. The A’s have the worst lineup in the American League, and they have been playing like that all season. They make for a much more compelling bet later in the season when they have the tendency to turn it on.
Mets @ Marlins
Play: Mets +110
Intrinsic Value: -113
Consider Betting Price: +102
Comment:
This is another game in which home field advantage is minimized. The Mets are the best road hitting team in the league the last couple of years. Maine has actually pitched better on the road since joining the Mets. Willis has the propensity to over pitch during his home starts, and it has reflected in his numbers that last couple of years. The Marlins are another lineup that has been better hitting away from home as well. There is no denying that Willis makes for a tough match up against a left handed loaded lineup like the Mets. He dominated them last year. However, the addition of Alou, who has had past success against him and replacing Franco for Delgado should minimize the dominance Willis has over them. The absence of Lo Ducca will also not hurt too much, as Castro appears to be swinging the bat well and has had past success against Willis. The fact that the Mets have a couple of switch hitters on the team, allows them to counter southpaws better than most teams that are loaded from the left side. In fact, if Franco plays this game, the Mets will be putting six of their 8 hitters in which have had success against him, and the only two not considered having success against him, are coming into today’s game with a .260 or better average. The Mets are also solid at working opponents pitch count, and Willis is backed by a sub par bullpen.
I am doubtful that Maine will be able to continue to put forth the numbers that he has the last couple of years, but it is still quite evident linesmakers are not giving him the respect he deserves. I have no problem backing him when he is coming with value. Maine has been unhittable the last couple of years, and comes into today’s game with a career OBA of .225. His problem has been his lack of command, something that should be helped out by a young and impatient lineup like the Marlins. He has dominated both right and left handed hitters, which should allow him to counter the effects of the Marlins having balance in their lineup. He has shown an ability to pitch well on the road as well. the Marlins bats appear to be slowing down, as they have scored 1,3 and 4 runs in the last three games. Cabrera looks like he tweaked his back a couple of games ago, and has gone 0 for 11 since then. Being backed by a top tier bullpen should allow the Mets to have the advantage in the later innings.
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays +125
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: -103
Comment:
I have no idea why the Red Sox are favored in this game. Granted the Blue Jays are missing some key players, but they have been one of the most dangerous home lineups in baseball the last couple of years, while the Red Sox continue to not produce on the road. Wakefield performed really poorly on the road last year, including a poor outing in Toronto. Although he comes into today’s game with solid career numbers against the Blue Jays, he has never had success in this park, as his career ERA here is approaching five. There are a couple of hitters in today’s lineup that have proven capable of hitting the knuckleball, while Johnson’s injury in the long run will have a negative effect, it won’t in this game as he has never been able to hit the knuckleball.
There is no denying that Ohka has been getting progressively worse, but he is a better pitcher than the one his numbers of last year and the beginning of this year reflect. Today might be a good spot for him to put forth a solid outing, as he is up against a very mediocre road offense that has not seen much of him, giving him the advantage the first two go a rounds in the lineup. Yesterday was the third time out of seven road games in which the Red Sox lineup scored one run or less. Ryan’s injury might be a short term advantage, as his replacements have filled in rather nicely.
Cubs @ Braves
Play: Cubs -106
Intrinsic Value: -134
Consider Betting Price: -116
Comment:
You have to like Zambrano in a bounce back spot following an outing where he mentally destructed on the mound. Pitching on the road may also be a good thing as emotions sometimes get the better end of him during his home starts. It has reflected in his numbers the last couple of years, and he was one of the most dominant road pitchers in baseball last year. It has been quite some time since the Braves have had a chance to see Zambrano, which does not bode well for them, as he is a pitcher that takes time getting used to. Two years ago was the last time they got to see him, and were only able to generate three hits in eight innings of work. Both Jones’s have not had past success against him, and his ability to dominate right handed hitters, allows him to match up well against a lineup like the Braves. Although the Cubs bullpen got in a lot of work yesterday, it may be problematic, as Zambrano has the ability to accumulate as high of a pitch count compared to any other pitcher in the league. The Braves are also a lineup not built to work pitch counts.
I feel that I am being overcompensated for Soriano’s injury, especially with the way he has been hitting. The Cubs still bring a stacked lineup to the table that is built to smack pitchers like Davies around the park. Although he is coming off a solid outing ten days ago, I do not expect those types of outings to last much longer. He simply lacks the consistency to be a solid pitcher. His inability to pitch both right and left handed hitters effectively does not bode well for him against this Cubs lineup who is are a threat from both the right and left side. He is also prone to the long ball, which is also a concern when going up against a lineup with power throughout the lineup. Although the Braves have a much improved bullpen, they are currently vulnerable in the front end now that Poranto and Cormier are on the DL. This does not bode well for them, as Davies is not known to go deep into games.
Ranges @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -111
Intrinsic Value: -143
Consider Betting Price: -129
Comment:
Although I got burned on the White Sox last night, I have no problem going right back on them, as they appear to be coming with a lot of value now that they are currently out of favor by the public. I have been calling Buerhles demise for three years now. Now that it has come true and finally reflected in the market price, I am willing to back him. This holds especially true when going up against a team that he has had past success against. Buerhle is the exact pitcher you want going up against this powerful yet impatient lineup, as he forces you to swing at bad pitches. His finesse style of pitching continues to plague the Rangers team, as they have struggled against this type of pitching yet again this year. Buerhle has downright dominated Young and Blaylock, and has also had past success against a couple of their role players. Despite pitching in a hitters park, he has been much more effective pitching at home, as there is no denying that he has reached a comfort zone on his home mound.
Millwood is another pitcher in this game that is going to have trouble putting forth the numbers that he did in years past and also witnessed some regression last year. He has become more prone to allowing the long ball, which is not a deficiency you want when pitching in this park against a lineup which possesses the power in which the White Sox do. Millwood has not pitched nearly as well as his ERA would indicate. He has been very hittable, and has allowed a lot of long and well hit outs. He has been becoming less and less effective against right handed hitters, which does not bode well for him against a right handed dominated lineup.
Twins @ Mariners
Play: Twins +208
Intrinsic Value +158
Consider Betting Price: +185
Comment:
I am well aware how good Hernandez is. In fact, I think he and Cain are currently the two hardest pitchers in baseball to get hits off of. However, the whole world now knows how good he is, and when that happens, value on the other side occurs almost 100% of the time. This is certainly the case in this game, as the Mariners are coming with a really inflated price tag. I would also much rather bet on Hernandez when up against a potent lineup. The reason being is that his success is not dependent on the quality lineup he is up against, rather how good he is that particular day. When on, no lineup in baseball could hit him, and he proved that to be the case in his last start. Therefore, there exists an embedded double counting effect in this game when he is up against a road lineup that has been known to struggle. Hernandez is also prone to a letdown spot in this game, following his bid for a no hitter on national television in his last start. Being a young pitcher, it is unknown how he handles situations like these. The Twins lineup is also streaky, and are coming off a game where they were seeing the ball really well. Hernandez has also shown a propensity to struggle against left handed hitting, and the Twins have their fair share of those. Being backed by a mediocre bullpen will give the Twins the advantage if and when the starters in this game leave.
Hernandez is not the only pitcher in this game that is off to a dominant start, as the same could be said for Silva. You know that his start holds substance when he pitched well in his first start against a team that has dominated him throughout the years inside a park that he has always been known to struggle. Although he is a much more effective pitcher at home, his problems of last year, allowing the long ball, should be helped out by this spacious park. The Mariners have been a more productive lineup on the road the last three years. They are also a lineup that Silva has dominated throughout his career, as he comes into today’s game with a career 2.41 ERA against them. He has had past success against the best hitters on the team. Being backed by the best and deepest bullpen in baseball is certainly a plus for an underdog this big.
0
Cubs @ Braves
Play: Cubs -106
Intrinsic Value: -134
Consider Betting Price: -116
Comment:
You have to like Zambrano in a bounce back spot following an outing where he mentally destructed on the mound. Pitching on the road may also be a good thing as emotions sometimes get the better end of him during his home starts. It has reflected in his numbers the last couple of years, and he was one of the most dominant road pitchers in baseball last year. It has been quite some time since the Braves have had a chance to see Zambrano, which does not bode well for them, as he is a pitcher that takes time getting used to. Two years ago was the last time they got to see him, and were only able to generate three hits in eight innings of work. Both Jones’s have not had past success against him, and his ability to dominate right handed hitters, allows him to match up well against a lineup like the Braves. Although the Cubs bullpen got in a lot of work yesterday, it may be problematic, as Zambrano has the ability to accumulate as high of a pitch count compared to any other pitcher in the league. The Braves are also a lineup not built to work pitch counts.
I feel that I am being overcompensated for Soriano’s injury, especially with the way he has been hitting. The Cubs still bring a stacked lineup to the table that is built to smack pitchers like Davies around the park. Although he is coming off a solid outing ten days ago, I do not expect those types of outings to last much longer. He simply lacks the consistency to be a solid pitcher. His inability to pitch both right and left handed hitters effectively does not bode well for him against this Cubs lineup who is are a threat from both the right and left side. He is also prone to the long ball, which is also a concern when going up against a lineup with power throughout the lineup. Although the Braves have a much improved bullpen, they are currently vulnerable in the front end now that Poranto and Cormier are on the DL. This does not bode well for them, as Davies is not known to go deep into games.
Ranges @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -111
Intrinsic Value: -143
Consider Betting Price: -129
Comment:
Although I got burned on the White Sox last night, I have no problem going right back on them, as they appear to be coming with a lot of value now that they are currently out of favor by the public. I have been calling Buerhles demise for three years now. Now that it has come true and finally reflected in the market price, I am willing to back him. This holds especially true when going up against a team that he has had past success against. Buerhle is the exact pitcher you want going up against this powerful yet impatient lineup, as he forces you to swing at bad pitches. His finesse style of pitching continues to plague the Rangers team, as they have struggled against this type of pitching yet again this year. Buerhle has downright dominated Young and Blaylock, and has also had past success against a couple of their role players. Despite pitching in a hitters park, he has been much more effective pitching at home, as there is no denying that he has reached a comfort zone on his home mound.
Millwood is another pitcher in this game that is going to have trouble putting forth the numbers that he did in years past and also witnessed some regression last year. He has become more prone to allowing the long ball, which is not a deficiency you want when pitching in this park against a lineup which possesses the power in which the White Sox do. Millwood has not pitched nearly as well as his ERA would indicate. He has been very hittable, and has allowed a lot of long and well hit outs. He has been becoming less and less effective against right handed hitters, which does not bode well for him against a right handed dominated lineup.
Twins @ Mariners
Play: Twins +208
Intrinsic Value +158
Consider Betting Price: +185
Comment:
I am well aware how good Hernandez is. In fact, I think he and Cain are currently the two hardest pitchers in baseball to get hits off of. However, the whole world now knows how good he is, and when that happens, value on the other side occurs almost 100% of the time. This is certainly the case in this game, as the Mariners are coming with a really inflated price tag. I would also much rather bet on Hernandez when up against a potent lineup. The reason being is that his success is not dependent on the quality lineup he is up against, rather how good he is that particular day. When on, no lineup in baseball could hit him, and he proved that to be the case in his last start. Therefore, there exists an embedded double counting effect in this game when he is up against a road lineup that has been known to struggle. Hernandez is also prone to a letdown spot in this game, following his bid for a no hitter on national television in his last start. Being a young pitcher, it is unknown how he handles situations like these. The Twins lineup is also streaky, and are coming off a game where they were seeing the ball really well. Hernandez has also shown a propensity to struggle against left handed hitting, and the Twins have their fair share of those. Being backed by a mediocre bullpen will give the Twins the advantage if and when the starters in this game leave.
Hernandez is not the only pitcher in this game that is off to a dominant start, as the same could be said for Silva. You know that his start holds substance when he pitched well in his first start against a team that has dominated him throughout the years inside a park that he has always been known to struggle. Although he is a much more effective pitcher at home, his problems of last year, allowing the long ball, should be helped out by this spacious park. The Mariners have been a more productive lineup on the road the last three years. They are also a lineup that Silva has dominated throughout his career, as he comes into today’s game with a career 2.41 ERA against them. He has had past success against the best hitters on the team. Being backed by the best and deepest bullpen in baseball is certainly a plus for an underdog this big.
Pirates @ Brewers
Play: Pirates +123
Intrinsic Value: Pirates -102
Consider Betting Price: +120
Comment:
No matter what team he has pitched for, Vargas has consistently struggled when pitching at home. In fact, he has been one of the worst home pitchers in baseball since coming to the big leagues, as he comes into today’s game with a career 5.68 home ERA. He has also struggled more during night games and early in the season, which are three variables that he will have to overcome if he wants to put forth a solid outing in this game. He has also become progressively less effective against right handed hitters throughout the years, which does not bode well when going up against the Pirates lineup. Although he has put forth solid numbers against the Pirates in the past, they potentially lack sustainability, as he has had success against only one hitter in today’s lineup. The addition of La Roche finally paid big dividends yesterday, and the Pirates are finally playing well on the road, which is a very good sign, as they were possibly the worst road team in baseball last year. The Brewers bullpen has been overworked of late, and Vargas has not been known to eat up innings.
Although Malholm has yet to put forth dominant outings, he is a young southpaw with solid upside potential. He has been plagued by a high walk total, a deficiency that should be helped out by going up against a free swinging lineup like the Brewers. He has dominated left handed hitters throughout his young career, which should curtail the power in the Brewers lineup. He has also had past success against the Brewers, coming into today’s game with 2.45 career ERA against them. Although he has been known to struggle on the road, in his two outings in this park, he was dominant. He is backed by an underrated and deep bullpen.
0
Pirates @ Brewers
Play: Pirates +123
Intrinsic Value: Pirates -102
Consider Betting Price: +120
Comment:
No matter what team he has pitched for, Vargas has consistently struggled when pitching at home. In fact, he has been one of the worst home pitchers in baseball since coming to the big leagues, as he comes into today’s game with a career 5.68 home ERA. He has also struggled more during night games and early in the season, which are three variables that he will have to overcome if he wants to put forth a solid outing in this game. He has also become progressively less effective against right handed hitters throughout the years, which does not bode well when going up against the Pirates lineup. Although he has put forth solid numbers against the Pirates in the past, they potentially lack sustainability, as he has had success against only one hitter in today’s lineup. The addition of La Roche finally paid big dividends yesterday, and the Pirates are finally playing well on the road, which is a very good sign, as they were possibly the worst road team in baseball last year. The Brewers bullpen has been overworked of late, and Vargas has not been known to eat up innings.
Although Malholm has yet to put forth dominant outings, he is a young southpaw with solid upside potential. He has been plagued by a high walk total, a deficiency that should be helped out by going up against a free swinging lineup like the Brewers. He has dominated left handed hitters throughout his young career, which should curtail the power in the Brewers lineup. He has also had past success against the Brewers, coming into today’s game with 2.45 career ERA against them. Although he has been known to struggle on the road, in his two outings in this park, he was dominant. He is backed by an underrated and deep bullpen.
I may add a couple more plays, as two teams are close to my target.
Cardinals @ Giants
Play: Giants +102
Intrinsic Value:-156
Consider Betting Price: -140
Comment:
Both teams were in dire need of a win last night in hopes to curtail the effects of any early season downward momentum. Thanks to a surprisingly good performance out of the Giants bullpen, they were able to get just their second home win all season. Today they are coming with more value than any other team on the card in my opinion. This is in large part due to Lowry continuing to be one of the more undervalued pitchers in baseball, especially when he is pitching at home. Lowry is off to an impressive start, as he is much healthier this year compared to last. He has always been much more effective at home, in large part thanks to the spacious confines that counter his fly ball tendencies. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.25 home ERA, and has actually been somewhat more effective pitching to right handed hitters throughout his career, which should be an asset going up against a lineup that will be loaded up from the right side. There might not be a more struggling lineup in baseball than the Cardinals right now. They once again looked lost at the plate last night, only able to generate 8 hits against very mediocre pitching for 12 innings. They have always been much more dormant against southpaws, something that they will once again have to overcome in this game. Tired bats may be in the batters box in this day game following an extra inning night game. Most hitters will tell you that it is not the speed of the pitch that has the most effect on tired bats, but the higher disparity of pitches. This is exactly what Lowry brings to the table, as he has added speed to his fastball, making his first class changeup that much harder to hit. Lowry is also a workhorse that could avoid a bullpen, and despite the extra inning game, only one Giants pitcher accumulated wear and tear on his arm in Wednesday’s game. The Giants are not the only team expected to rest some key starters. Don’t be surprised if Edmonds and Rolen sit, and more importantly their hottest hitter Duncan, who is not potent against southpaws.
Wells is off to a solid start, but I don’t think it will last much longer. This might be a game in which he witnesses some regression, as he has always been known to struggle on the road, during day games, and against lineups loaded from the left side. He will have to overcome all three variables in order to sustain his hot streak. Even without Bonds in the lineup, he will have to pitch to some left handed bats that have hit him well in limited at bats. Sweeney, expected to be one replacement today, and Roberts are two left handed bats with past success, while the Giants hottest hitter Arillia, has hit him well as well. The Cardinals bullpen got in a lot of work last night, and are not as talented as last years team as far as bullpen is concerned.
Astros @ Reds
Play: Astros +137
Intrinsic Value: +100
Consider Betting Price: +120
Comment:
Once again, the Reds are being overvalued by linesmakers. Since coming to the NL, Arroyo has been able to fool a lot of opposing lineups who have yet to get used to his backwards style of pitching. The Astros are not one of those teams, as they have consistently been able to dominate him throughout his career, including last year where he allowed 16 runs in 24 innings of work. Arroyo is a pitcher heavily dependent on fundamentals. You either get him, or you don’t, and the Astros get him. Both Biggio and Berkman have owned him, while the Astros are expected to load up their lineup from the left side, which should also cause Arroyo problems. Making matters worse for Arroyo this year is that the fact that the Astros added Lee and Lorretta on their team, two more hitters that have owned him in the past. As expected, the Reds bullpen has regressed of late, and is simply one of the worst in baseball. This should allow the Astros to continue their recent success at the plate.
Good bounce back opportunity for Williams. He is a right handed veteran that has been tougher of left handed batters throughout his career, and has been consistently pitching more effective against them. This bodes well for his chances in this game, as most of the Reds talent comes from the left side. Although he has some poor career numbers against this team, they are very misleading. The only player in today’s lineup that has had past success against him is Griffey, while he has actually got the better end of Dunn, Hattenberg, Conine, and Freel. He is also backed by the better bullpen, which should give the Astros the pitching edge in the later innings.
0
I may add a couple more plays, as two teams are close to my target.
Cardinals @ Giants
Play: Giants +102
Intrinsic Value:-156
Consider Betting Price: -140
Comment:
Both teams were in dire need of a win last night in hopes to curtail the effects of any early season downward momentum. Thanks to a surprisingly good performance out of the Giants bullpen, they were able to get just their second home win all season. Today they are coming with more value than any other team on the card in my opinion. This is in large part due to Lowry continuing to be one of the more undervalued pitchers in baseball, especially when he is pitching at home. Lowry is off to an impressive start, as he is much healthier this year compared to last. He has always been much more effective at home, in large part thanks to the spacious confines that counter his fly ball tendencies. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.25 home ERA, and has actually been somewhat more effective pitching to right handed hitters throughout his career, which should be an asset going up against a lineup that will be loaded up from the right side. There might not be a more struggling lineup in baseball than the Cardinals right now. They once again looked lost at the plate last night, only able to generate 8 hits against very mediocre pitching for 12 innings. They have always been much more dormant against southpaws, something that they will once again have to overcome in this game. Tired bats may be in the batters box in this day game following an extra inning night game. Most hitters will tell you that it is not the speed of the pitch that has the most effect on tired bats, but the higher disparity of pitches. This is exactly what Lowry brings to the table, as he has added speed to his fastball, making his first class changeup that much harder to hit. Lowry is also a workhorse that could avoid a bullpen, and despite the extra inning game, only one Giants pitcher accumulated wear and tear on his arm in Wednesday’s game. The Giants are not the only team expected to rest some key starters. Don’t be surprised if Edmonds and Rolen sit, and more importantly their hottest hitter Duncan, who is not potent against southpaws.
Wells is off to a solid start, but I don’t think it will last much longer. This might be a game in which he witnesses some regression, as he has always been known to struggle on the road, during day games, and against lineups loaded from the left side. He will have to overcome all three variables in order to sustain his hot streak. Even without Bonds in the lineup, he will have to pitch to some left handed bats that have hit him well in limited at bats. Sweeney, expected to be one replacement today, and Roberts are two left handed bats with past success, while the Giants hottest hitter Arillia, has hit him well as well. The Cardinals bullpen got in a lot of work last night, and are not as talented as last years team as far as bullpen is concerned.
Astros @ Reds
Play: Astros +137
Intrinsic Value: +100
Consider Betting Price: +120
Comment:
Once again, the Reds are being overvalued by linesmakers. Since coming to the NL, Arroyo has been able to fool a lot of opposing lineups who have yet to get used to his backwards style of pitching. The Astros are not one of those teams, as they have consistently been able to dominate him throughout his career, including last year where he allowed 16 runs in 24 innings of work. Arroyo is a pitcher heavily dependent on fundamentals. You either get him, or you don’t, and the Astros get him. Both Biggio and Berkman have owned him, while the Astros are expected to load up their lineup from the left side, which should also cause Arroyo problems. Making matters worse for Arroyo this year is that the fact that the Astros added Lee and Lorretta on their team, two more hitters that have owned him in the past. As expected, the Reds bullpen has regressed of late, and is simply one of the worst in baseball. This should allow the Astros to continue their recent success at the plate.
Good bounce back opportunity for Williams. He is a right handed veteran that has been tougher of left handed batters throughout his career, and has been consistently pitching more effective against them. This bodes well for his chances in this game, as most of the Reds talent comes from the left side. Although he has some poor career numbers against this team, they are very misleading. The only player in today’s lineup that has had past success against him is Griffey, while he has actually got the better end of Dunn, Hattenberg, Conine, and Freel. He is also backed by the better bullpen, which should give the Astros the pitching edge in the later innings.
Rangers @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -133
Intrinsic Value: -149
Consider Betting Price: -135
Comment:
I think that last nights no hitter was more of a momentum booster than a next day letdown spot for a White Sox team that was in dire need for something positive to happen to them. Buerhle was not the only player on the team that finally showed a resemblance of his past, as the White Sox lineup displayed the patience and ability to capitalize on location mistakes like they have been able to do the last couple of years. This is a good spot for them to put forth another solid offensive showing, as they face a struggling and inconsistent road pitcher prone to location mistakes and the long ball. Padilla has been dominated in both his road starts this year, and has always been known to not pitch as effectively on the road. Returning to his past form looks improbable as Padilla is on pace for his forth disappointing season in a row. He has not had success in this park in the past, and being prone to the long ball is the last thing you want in this park. He still hasn’t learned how to pitch well to left handed hitters, which may be a problem, as he is more than likely going to have to face five in today’s game. This is also a game in which Posedniks absence will not prove costly as he one had one hit in 17 tries against him. The Rangers bullpen strengths come from the backend holding on to the lead. If the White Sox could avoid that section, they should be able to face some very hittable pitches throughout this game
There are not many pitchers streakier than Vasquesz, and right now he is pitching some really solid baseball. He has allowed just two runs in his first two outings, and has a chance to carry that momentum against a lineup that just got no hit. He is also a right handed hitter that pitches to left handed batters more effectively, an asset you want when facing this Ranges lineup. Although he has had some ugly numbers against the Rangers in the past, the White Sox will have the luxury of putting a short leash on him if his struggles against them continue, as their bullpen has the day off yesterday.
Dodgers @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -129
Intrinsic Value: -143
Consider Betting Price: -129
Comment:
Cook and the Rockies lineup at home continue to be priced below their intrinsic value in my opinion. This is a good spot for both to put forth solid outings. This is not an ideal match up for Hendrickson, as the last thing you want to be is a fly ball pitcher pitching a day game in Coors. The Rockies love facing these types of pitchers, and have been hitting southpaws well all year. They have four starters batting over .400 against them this year, while they have a three more hitters that although have been struggling against them, have hit southpaws well throughout their career. They have the depth and power throughout their lineup to take advantage of Hendricksons deficiencies. Not expecting to go deep into this game, the Rockies also have a chance to rough up a front end of the Dodgers bullpen who all have struggled pitching against the Rockies throughout this game.
Unlike Hendrickson, who is a flyball pitcher prone to being a victim of the thin air during a day game in which the park is expected to be live, Cook is one of the premier sinkerball pitchers in the league, that could curtail the effects of Coors. He has been pitching effectively in all three of his starts, even though all three were up against left handed loaded lineups, something that he has always struggled against in past years. Cook has been able to put forth a sub four ERA in this park back to back years. He is also backed by a bullpen that has allowed just two runs in the last eleven innings of work.
0
Rangers @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -133
Intrinsic Value: -149
Consider Betting Price: -135
Comment:
I think that last nights no hitter was more of a momentum booster than a next day letdown spot for a White Sox team that was in dire need for something positive to happen to them. Buerhle was not the only player on the team that finally showed a resemblance of his past, as the White Sox lineup displayed the patience and ability to capitalize on location mistakes like they have been able to do the last couple of years. This is a good spot for them to put forth another solid offensive showing, as they face a struggling and inconsistent road pitcher prone to location mistakes and the long ball. Padilla has been dominated in both his road starts this year, and has always been known to not pitch as effectively on the road. Returning to his past form looks improbable as Padilla is on pace for his forth disappointing season in a row. He has not had success in this park in the past, and being prone to the long ball is the last thing you want in this park. He still hasn’t learned how to pitch well to left handed hitters, which may be a problem, as he is more than likely going to have to face five in today’s game. This is also a game in which Posedniks absence will not prove costly as he one had one hit in 17 tries against him. The Rangers bullpen strengths come from the backend holding on to the lead. If the White Sox could avoid that section, they should be able to face some very hittable pitches throughout this game
There are not many pitchers streakier than Vasquesz, and right now he is pitching some really solid baseball. He has allowed just two runs in his first two outings, and has a chance to carry that momentum against a lineup that just got no hit. He is also a right handed hitter that pitches to left handed batters more effectively, an asset you want when facing this Ranges lineup. Although he has had some ugly numbers against the Rangers in the past, the White Sox will have the luxury of putting a short leash on him if his struggles against them continue, as their bullpen has the day off yesterday.
Dodgers @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -129
Intrinsic Value: -143
Consider Betting Price: -129
Comment:
Cook and the Rockies lineup at home continue to be priced below their intrinsic value in my opinion. This is a good spot for both to put forth solid outings. This is not an ideal match up for Hendrickson, as the last thing you want to be is a fly ball pitcher pitching a day game in Coors. The Rockies love facing these types of pitchers, and have been hitting southpaws well all year. They have four starters batting over .400 against them this year, while they have a three more hitters that although have been struggling against them, have hit southpaws well throughout their career. They have the depth and power throughout their lineup to take advantage of Hendricksons deficiencies. Not expecting to go deep into this game, the Rockies also have a chance to rough up a front end of the Dodgers bullpen who all have struggled pitching against the Rockies throughout this game.
Unlike Hendrickson, who is a flyball pitcher prone to being a victim of the thin air during a day game in which the park is expected to be live, Cook is one of the premier sinkerball pitchers in the league, that could curtail the effects of Coors. He has been pitching effectively in all three of his starts, even though all three were up against left handed loaded lineups, something that he has always struggled against in past years. Cook has been able to put forth a sub four ERA in this park back to back years. He is also backed by a bullpen that has allowed just two runs in the last eleven innings of work.
I may add at least one more play.
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -116
Intrinsic Value: -163
Consider betting Price: -148
Comment:
A lot of hidden value on the Orioles, as I was expecting them to trade well below their intrinsic value in this game. Cabrera has had some of the nastiest and overpowering stuff since coming to the big leagues, but his lack of command in prior years prevented him from being a dominant pitcher. However, he looks like a completely different pitcher this year (literally and figuratively as he actually is two inches taller this year) as he has shown solid command on the mound, and has walked just one batter in the last two starts combined. He has always been much more comfortable pitching at home, and his night numbers compared to his day game numbers appear to be beyond randomness, as he has put forth a career 3.96 night ERA as opposed to a 6.18 day game ERA. He eats up right handed hitters, which could be a problem for a right handed loaded lineup like the Blue Jays. He has also been getting progressively more effective against the left handed batters he has faced. Last year, there was not a lineup in baseball that Cabrera dominated more than the Blue Jays, as he pitched 27 innings against them, yet allowed just four runs. He has dominated a lot of the hitters that will be in today’s lineup. The Blue Jays lineup is not as potent with two key hitters injured, Glauss and Johnson. Without them, they are not more dependent on Wells, which does not bode well for their chances in this game, as he comes into it with just one hit in 19 at bats against Cabrera. The Blue Jays are a much less potent hitting on the road, and have not looked good at the plate in recent games. Cabrera is finally not being backed by a bullpen that is a liability, as they improved as much as any other team in baseball in the off season.
Burnett has not looked sharp in the early going, as his lack of command has plagued his career as well. He has been known to struggle more on the road, and got roughed up in his only road outing this year. His lack of control combined with his propensity to go for the strikeout in every at bat leads him to accumulate a high pitch count in the early going. The Blue Jays pen has struggled of late, and are not terribly talented without Ryan. The Orioles lineup is coming off a series in which they finally appeared to break out of their early season funk, and have been are also a team that hits much better at home. The Orioles lineup also matches up much better against right handed pitching, and will throw five left handers at Burnett. The Blue Jays lack a reliable southpaw in the bullpen as well.
Padres @ Rockies
Play: Padres -106
Intrinsic Value: -165
Consider Betting Price: -147
Comment:
Here is another game in which deviates drastically from its intrinsic value in my opinion. This is a good bounce back spot for Young, as he remains the most undervalued road pitcher in baseball. Despite being a notorious fly ball pitcher, Young has had success in Coors, which could also be said for almost any other road park in baseball. He has a career 3.28 road ERA. Young’s massive size and unorthodox delivery gave the Rockies young lineup problems last year, as there is not one hitter in today’s lineup with past success against him. What makes him hard is the fact that he is equally dominant against left handed hitters as he is on right handed ones. Last year, he put forth five starts against the Rockies, and finished with a sub 3 ERA and an OBA of .205. Young is also backed by the best bullpen in the national league, and a bullpen that did a good job resting their better pitchers yesterday, as they got a much needed rest. The Rockies looked flat at the plate yesterday, and could not capitalize on going against a sub par fly ball pitcher and sub par relief.
Don’t expect Fogg’s solid start to the season to last much longer. He just isn’t a good pitcher. In fact, he has finished with a five plus ERA in three of his last four seasons. Despite being a sinkerball pitcher, Fogg was horrible in Coors last year, and was vulnerable to the long ball. He allowed a home run in this park one every five innings, and finished out the year with a six plus ERA in Coors. He was also dominated by the Padres last year, who managed to hit .310 against him in five starts. Like most sinkerball pitchers, Fogg is vulnerable to left handed hitters. He has been dominated by them throughout his career, and they have actually been able to hit over .300 against him. This does not bode well for his chances, as the Padres will more than likely put four left handers at the plate in this game. Fogg is backed by a sub par bullpen. The Padres are a much more dangerous lineup outside of their home park.
0
I may add at least one more play.
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -116
Intrinsic Value: -163
Consider betting Price: -148
Comment:
A lot of hidden value on the Orioles, as I was expecting them to trade well below their intrinsic value in this game. Cabrera has had some of the nastiest and overpowering stuff since coming to the big leagues, but his lack of command in prior years prevented him from being a dominant pitcher. However, he looks like a completely different pitcher this year (literally and figuratively as he actually is two inches taller this year) as he has shown solid command on the mound, and has walked just one batter in the last two starts combined. He has always been much more comfortable pitching at home, and his night numbers compared to his day game numbers appear to be beyond randomness, as he has put forth a career 3.96 night ERA as opposed to a 6.18 day game ERA. He eats up right handed hitters, which could be a problem for a right handed loaded lineup like the Blue Jays. He has also been getting progressively more effective against the left handed batters he has faced. Last year, there was not a lineup in baseball that Cabrera dominated more than the Blue Jays, as he pitched 27 innings against them, yet allowed just four runs. He has dominated a lot of the hitters that will be in today’s lineup. The Blue Jays lineup is not as potent with two key hitters injured, Glauss and Johnson. Without them, they are not more dependent on Wells, which does not bode well for their chances in this game, as he comes into it with just one hit in 19 at bats against Cabrera. The Blue Jays are a much less potent hitting on the road, and have not looked good at the plate in recent games. Cabrera is finally not being backed by a bullpen that is a liability, as they improved as much as any other team in baseball in the off season.
Burnett has not looked sharp in the early going, as his lack of command has plagued his career as well. He has been known to struggle more on the road, and got roughed up in his only road outing this year. His lack of control combined with his propensity to go for the strikeout in every at bat leads him to accumulate a high pitch count in the early going. The Blue Jays pen has struggled of late, and are not terribly talented without Ryan. The Orioles lineup is coming off a series in which they finally appeared to break out of their early season funk, and have been are also a team that hits much better at home. The Orioles lineup also matches up much better against right handed pitching, and will throw five left handers at Burnett. The Blue Jays lack a reliable southpaw in the bullpen as well.
Padres @ Rockies
Play: Padres -106
Intrinsic Value: -165
Consider Betting Price: -147
Comment:
Here is another game in which deviates drastically from its intrinsic value in my opinion. This is a good bounce back spot for Young, as he remains the most undervalued road pitcher in baseball. Despite being a notorious fly ball pitcher, Young has had success in Coors, which could also be said for almost any other road park in baseball. He has a career 3.28 road ERA. Young’s massive size and unorthodox delivery gave the Rockies young lineup problems last year, as there is not one hitter in today’s lineup with past success against him. What makes him hard is the fact that he is equally dominant against left handed hitters as he is on right handed ones. Last year, he put forth five starts against the Rockies, and finished with a sub 3 ERA and an OBA of .205. Young is also backed by the best bullpen in the national league, and a bullpen that did a good job resting their better pitchers yesterday, as they got a much needed rest. The Rockies looked flat at the plate yesterday, and could not capitalize on going against a sub par fly ball pitcher and sub par relief.
Don’t expect Fogg’s solid start to the season to last much longer. He just isn’t a good pitcher. In fact, he has finished with a five plus ERA in three of his last four seasons. Despite being a sinkerball pitcher, Fogg was horrible in Coors last year, and was vulnerable to the long ball. He allowed a home run in this park one every five innings, and finished out the year with a six plus ERA in Coors. He was also dominated by the Padres last year, who managed to hit .310 against him in five starts. Like most sinkerball pitchers, Fogg is vulnerable to left handed hitters. He has been dominated by them throughout his career, and they have actually been able to hit over .300 against him. This does not bode well for his chances, as the Padres will more than likely put four left handers at the plate in this game. Fogg is backed by a sub par bullpen. The Padres are a much more dangerous lineup outside of their home park.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Play: Giants -106
Intrinsic Value: -119
Consider Betting Price: -107
Comment:
This is an interesting match up, as both starting pitchers have pitched much differently than their numbers would suggest. Although Ortiz comes into today’s game with a five plus ERA, he has pitched much better than those numbers would suggest. It is no coincidence either, as he is a different pitcher than the one we have seen on the mound the last couple of years. He has worked on a mechanical glitch that was plaguing his career and shot his confidence. Now that it is fixed, his confidence is back, and has been getting hitters out. In fact, he went into the 9th inning of his last start having allowed just two runs. In the past, he has pitched well in this park, and has done a good job fooling young hitters that have not seen him in the past. This should give him the embedded advantage in this game, as all 8 hitters in tonight’s lineup do not have more than one at bat against him. Both the Giants and Diamondbacks played extra inning games on Wednesday night and followed it up with a day game yesterday. Conserving the bullpen in yesterdays game was a must for both teams, yet the Giants were the only one that was successful in doing so.
I am baffled to how Davis comes into this game with a 3.38 ERA on the season. He has pitched horribly. In fact, two of his games, he went just five innings and allowed 13 baserunners in those innings. He has had no command of his pitches, and ahs walked 12 batters in just 16 innings of work. This does not bode well for his chances in today’s game, as he will be up against a veteran lineup that will not help him out. Sooner of later, his 2.13 WHIP will result in a lot of runs allowed, and this may be the game, as the Giants hitters have been hitting the ball better of late. Davis has also never pitched well on the road, including some poor outings in this park in past years. He has not had past success against the Giants either, and will have to face a few hitters that have hit him well in past years. Davis’s lack of command has forced him to accumulate high pitch counts, and leave games early. He is backed by a tired and sub par bullpen which should allow the Giants to face some hittable pitching throughout this game.
0
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Play: Giants -106
Intrinsic Value: -119
Consider Betting Price: -107
Comment:
This is an interesting match up, as both starting pitchers have pitched much differently than their numbers would suggest. Although Ortiz comes into today’s game with a five plus ERA, he has pitched much better than those numbers would suggest. It is no coincidence either, as he is a different pitcher than the one we have seen on the mound the last couple of years. He has worked on a mechanical glitch that was plaguing his career and shot his confidence. Now that it is fixed, his confidence is back, and has been getting hitters out. In fact, he went into the 9th inning of his last start having allowed just two runs. In the past, he has pitched well in this park, and has done a good job fooling young hitters that have not seen him in the past. This should give him the embedded advantage in this game, as all 8 hitters in tonight’s lineup do not have more than one at bat against him. Both the Giants and Diamondbacks played extra inning games on Wednesday night and followed it up with a day game yesterday. Conserving the bullpen in yesterdays game was a must for both teams, yet the Giants were the only one that was successful in doing so.
I am baffled to how Davis comes into this game with a 3.38 ERA on the season. He has pitched horribly. In fact, two of his games, he went just five innings and allowed 13 baserunners in those innings. He has had no command of his pitches, and ahs walked 12 batters in just 16 innings of work. This does not bode well for his chances in today’s game, as he will be up against a veteran lineup that will not help him out. Sooner of later, his 2.13 WHIP will result in a lot of runs allowed, and this may be the game, as the Giants hitters have been hitting the ball better of late. Davis has also never pitched well on the road, including some poor outings in this park in past years. He has not had past success against the Giants either, and will have to face a few hitters that have hit him well in past years. Davis’s lack of command has forced him to accumulate high pitch counts, and leave games early. He is backed by a tired and sub par bullpen which should allow the Giants to face some hittable pitching throughout this game.
Cardinals @ Cubs
Play: Cardinals +132
Intrinsic Value: +114
Consider Betting Price: +131
Comment:
I didn’t think I would find my self betting on the Cardinals when going up against a southpaw, but I feel that their recent woes are finally fully reflected in the market price. Looper has been rock solid since taking over the starter’s role. All three starts have been quality, and has allowed less than a hit per inning in two of them. This is potentially a good spot to put forth his fourth solid outing in a row, as he is facing a team that he has had past success against as a reliever. He has been harder to pick up during day games, and although he has been more successful at home, has had success when pitching in this park. He dominated right handed hitters, yet is vulnerable against southpaws. However, the Cubs are more talented from the right side. Along with Soriano being out of the lineup, so is Barrett. Although it doesn’t seem like much, he was 6 for 11 against Looper and the only right handed hitter with past success against him. Lee and Ramirez are a combined 3 for 14 against him. The Cardinals did a better job resting their better bullpen pitchers yesterday, and got the night off yesterday, which it was quite evident it was needed, as they came into yesterday’s game flat. The Cubs had to fly late last night.
Lilly has been rock solid this year, and may continue this trend today. However, he has been one of the worst day game pitchers in baseball throughout his career, and he comes into today’s game with a career five plus day game ERA. The Cardinals finally get Rolen back in the lineup as well. Although the Cubs have a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen whose two best pitchers have been dominated by the Cardinals in the past.
0
Cardinals @ Cubs
Play: Cardinals +132
Intrinsic Value: +114
Consider Betting Price: +131
Comment:
I didn’t think I would find my self betting on the Cardinals when going up against a southpaw, but I feel that their recent woes are finally fully reflected in the market price. Looper has been rock solid since taking over the starter’s role. All three starts have been quality, and has allowed less than a hit per inning in two of them. This is potentially a good spot to put forth his fourth solid outing in a row, as he is facing a team that he has had past success against as a reliever. He has been harder to pick up during day games, and although he has been more successful at home, has had success when pitching in this park. He dominated right handed hitters, yet is vulnerable against southpaws. However, the Cubs are more talented from the right side. Along with Soriano being out of the lineup, so is Barrett. Although it doesn’t seem like much, he was 6 for 11 against Looper and the only right handed hitter with past success against him. Lee and Ramirez are a combined 3 for 14 against him. The Cardinals did a better job resting their better bullpen pitchers yesterday, and got the night off yesterday, which it was quite evident it was needed, as they came into yesterday’s game flat. The Cubs had to fly late last night.
Lilly has been rock solid this year, and may continue this trend today. However, he has been one of the worst day game pitchers in baseball throughout his career, and he comes into today’s game with a career five plus day game ERA. The Cardinals finally get Rolen back in the lineup as well. Although the Cubs have a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen whose two best pitchers have been dominated by the Cardinals in the past.
I may add more later.
White Sox @ Tigers
Play: White Sox +138
Intrinsic Value: +110
Consider Betting Price: +130
Comment:
It seems like the more the White Sox win, the more undervalued they become, as this will be the fourth time in five games that I will be taking a position on them. Although, much like Buerhle, I have been calling for Contreras’s regression for over a year now. However, this may be a good spot for him to put forth a solid outing. Contreras pitched the Tigers well in his five starts against them last year. He had success against almost every right handed hitter in the lineup, and has given a few key hitters on the team problems throughout his career. Although he has never pitched as well on the road, there might not be another road park in baseball where he has put forth more solid starts in. He has also significantly been more successful during day games, which could be a product of being harder to pick up. He has responded well from his opening day blowout, as he has allowed just one run in his last two starts. The White Sox bullpen has been pitching better of late, while the Tigers hitters have not played to form yet this season. They are also a less potent lineup at home.
As much as Robertson has improved the last couple of years, he has still not proven to be an effective pitcher during day games. Even last year he put forth an ERA more than one run higher during day games. He comes into today’s game with a career 5.59 day game ERA, as opposed to his sub four night day ERA. Robertson also struggled against the White Sox as well last year, finishing with a near seven ERA in four starts against them. Last year was more than anomaly, as his career ERA against them hovers over five. There are a few players spread out in today’s lineup with past success against him, while Podsednik’s absence will not be missed in today’s game, as he is only 2 for 20 lifetime against him. Thome seems locked in at the plate, while there seems to be a new role player stepping up each day. Jones has not had success against the White Sox either.
Braves @ Mets
Play: Braves +127
Intrinsic Value: -102
Consider Betting Price: +118
Comment:
As much as I hate betting against this Mets team, I feel that they make for a much more compelling fade at home, where home field advantage is minimized by the parks clashing with their fundamental style of hitting, an embedded variable consistently not reflected in the 20 basis point home field add on. The Mets are also a much less potent lineup against southpaws, as most of their talent is either left handed hitters or switch hitters that are more dangerous from the left side. James is off to an impressive start, and it is more than a fluke. His delivery and deception makes him really hard to pick up, and although the Mets have solid career totals against him, this trend appears to lack sustainability, as last time out, he managed to go 8 innings against them, allowing just one hit and no runs. He is a young pitcher that has not shown a preference of pitching at home, and is finally backed by a strong bullpen. The Braves fast start is no fluke, as they are one of the more well rounded teams in baseball, and the Mets will have trouble pushing them around as they did in recent years.
Unlike James, Perez is a southpaw whose fast start may lack sustainability. He has lacked consistency throughout his career, and his propensity to allow a lot of baserunners via the walk can prove costly against a lineup with depth and power throughout. More regression variables is the notion that he has been known to struggle most early in the season. The Mets bullpen is not as talented as last years, and lacks much of a disparity over the Braves. Their front end is not terribly talented, and Perez’s lack of consistency can lead to an early exit.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Play: Giants -142
Intrinsic Value: -169
Consider Betting Price: -153
Comment:
Last week Zito was able to rebound from his first two poor outings against veteran lineups by facing a young and inexperienced Rockies lineup. Today he gets to face yet another young lineup that could have problems with Zito’s style. Zito is at his best when facing lineups with not much history against him, as his style of pitching takes at least two go-arounds to adjust too. This does not bode well for a Diamondbacks lineup that has just one player with more than ten at bats against him. The two hottest hitters on the team come into today’s game with a combined 3 for 19 against him. His flyball style of pitching should be helped out by the spacious outfield this park provides. Also helping Zito’s chances this game is the home plate umpire, who has a propensity to call the high strike, making his curveball that much more effective. The Giants bullpen has been pitching better the last few games, and are well rested after two solid starts in a row by their starters. The Diamondbacks lineup is not as potent on the road. More importantly, there is not another team in baseball that has been struggling more with southpaws, as they come into today’s game with just a .172 average against them, and have yet to hit a home run against them.
Gonzalez might have a solid future ahead of him, but he certainly isn’t pitching that way at this point and time. He continues to be way too hittable, and is being smacked around by both right and left handed hitters. He comes into today’s game with a career OBA of .327. Left handers have absolutely crushed him throughout his career, as they have managed to hit nearly .350 against him. This does not bode well for his chances, as he is more than likely gong to have to face six left handed hitters in today’s game. He has also not had past success against the Giants, allowing eleven runs in just nine career innings against them. His finesse style of pitching also does not match up well against a patient veteran lineup that is more vulnerable to being overpowered. Being backed by a sub par bullpen gives the Giants hitters a good chance to continue their mini hot streak.
0
I may add more later.
White Sox @ Tigers
Play: White Sox +138
Intrinsic Value: +110
Consider Betting Price: +130
Comment:
It seems like the more the White Sox win, the more undervalued they become, as this will be the fourth time in five games that I will be taking a position on them. Although, much like Buerhle, I have been calling for Contreras’s regression for over a year now. However, this may be a good spot for him to put forth a solid outing. Contreras pitched the Tigers well in his five starts against them last year. He had success against almost every right handed hitter in the lineup, and has given a few key hitters on the team problems throughout his career. Although he has never pitched as well on the road, there might not be another road park in baseball where he has put forth more solid starts in. He has also significantly been more successful during day games, which could be a product of being harder to pick up. He has responded well from his opening day blowout, as he has allowed just one run in his last two starts. The White Sox bullpen has been pitching better of late, while the Tigers hitters have not played to form yet this season. They are also a less potent lineup at home.
As much as Robertson has improved the last couple of years, he has still not proven to be an effective pitcher during day games. Even last year he put forth an ERA more than one run higher during day games. He comes into today’s game with a career 5.59 day game ERA, as opposed to his sub four night day ERA. Robertson also struggled against the White Sox as well last year, finishing with a near seven ERA in four starts against them. Last year was more than anomaly, as his career ERA against them hovers over five. There are a few players spread out in today’s lineup with past success against him, while Podsednik’s absence will not be missed in today’s game, as he is only 2 for 20 lifetime against him. Thome seems locked in at the plate, while there seems to be a new role player stepping up each day. Jones has not had success against the White Sox either.
Braves @ Mets
Play: Braves +127
Intrinsic Value: -102
Consider Betting Price: +118
Comment:
As much as I hate betting against this Mets team, I feel that they make for a much more compelling fade at home, where home field advantage is minimized by the parks clashing with their fundamental style of hitting, an embedded variable consistently not reflected in the 20 basis point home field add on. The Mets are also a much less potent lineup against southpaws, as most of their talent is either left handed hitters or switch hitters that are more dangerous from the left side. James is off to an impressive start, and it is more than a fluke. His delivery and deception makes him really hard to pick up, and although the Mets have solid career totals against him, this trend appears to lack sustainability, as last time out, he managed to go 8 innings against them, allowing just one hit and no runs. He is a young pitcher that has not shown a preference of pitching at home, and is finally backed by a strong bullpen. The Braves fast start is no fluke, as they are one of the more well rounded teams in baseball, and the Mets will have trouble pushing them around as they did in recent years.
Unlike James, Perez is a southpaw whose fast start may lack sustainability. He has lacked consistency throughout his career, and his propensity to allow a lot of baserunners via the walk can prove costly against a lineup with depth and power throughout. More regression variables is the notion that he has been known to struggle most early in the season. The Mets bullpen is not as talented as last years, and lacks much of a disparity over the Braves. Their front end is not terribly talented, and Perez’s lack of consistency can lead to an early exit.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Play: Giants -142
Intrinsic Value: -169
Consider Betting Price: -153
Comment:
Last week Zito was able to rebound from his first two poor outings against veteran lineups by facing a young and inexperienced Rockies lineup. Today he gets to face yet another young lineup that could have problems with Zito’s style. Zito is at his best when facing lineups with not much history against him, as his style of pitching takes at least two go-arounds to adjust too. This does not bode well for a Diamondbacks lineup that has just one player with more than ten at bats against him. The two hottest hitters on the team come into today’s game with a combined 3 for 19 against him. His flyball style of pitching should be helped out by the spacious outfield this park provides. Also helping Zito’s chances this game is the home plate umpire, who has a propensity to call the high strike, making his curveball that much more effective. The Giants bullpen has been pitching better the last few games, and are well rested after two solid starts in a row by their starters. The Diamondbacks lineup is not as potent on the road. More importantly, there is not another team in baseball that has been struggling more with southpaws, as they come into today’s game with just a .172 average against them, and have yet to hit a home run against them.
Gonzalez might have a solid future ahead of him, but he certainly isn’t pitching that way at this point and time. He continues to be way too hittable, and is being smacked around by both right and left handed hitters. He comes into today’s game with a career OBA of .327. Left handers have absolutely crushed him throughout his career, as they have managed to hit nearly .350 against him. This does not bode well for his chances, as he is more than likely gong to have to face six left handed hitters in today’s game. He has also not had past success against the Giants, allowing eleven runs in just nine career innings against them. His finesse style of pitching also does not match up well against a patient veteran lineup that is more vulnerable to being overpowered. Being backed by a sub par bullpen gives the Giants hitters a good chance to continue their mini hot streak.
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -110
Intrinsic Value: -169
Consider Betting Price: -152
Comment:
Once again, the Orioles are trading well below their intrinsic value in this game. Although Towers is off to a solid start this season, sooner or later he will come back to earth, as he just isn’t a very solid pitcher. Both his first two starts were home starts, where he has always had more success pitching. His career road ERA is plus five, and has been hittable for both right and left handed hitters throughout his career, as both are hitting .300 against him. Although he has been able to put forth solid career totals against the Orioles, they are misleading on two accounts. One, is the notion that he isn’t as an effective pitcher compared to the time when he accumulated most of the numbers. Secondly, he has struggled against a few of the hitters in today’s lineup, while only having success against one. He has also been dominated by Huff when playing for another team. As mentioned last night, the Blue Jays bullpen is a mess without Ryan. They have no ideal backend pitcher, making any potential lead vulnerable. The Orioles are a more dangerous lineup at home and against right handed pitching.
Although the Blue Jays lineup is built to hit left handed pitching, they are not nearly as much of a threat against southpaws now that Glauss and Johnson are out of the lineup. It is also a lineup that has struggled of late, and have one of the higher disparities of productivity at home compared to the road over the last three years. Loewen also appears to be a more effective pitcher compared to the one that got roughed up by this Blue Jays team last year. He has been far more effective at home in his short career, and has been relatively effective against right handed hitters in his career. Right now more than ever, the Blue Jays need a lift from Thomas, who looks lost at the plate. The departure of Molina also makes this lineup less potent against southpaws. The Orioles bullpen is no longer a liability, and actually possesses one of the deeper and better bullpens in baseball.
Astros @ Brewers
Play: Brewers -138
Intrinsic Value: -165
Consider Betting Price: -150
Comment:
This is not an ideal match up for the Astros to continue their hot streak on the road. Capuano remains one of the most undervalued home pitchers in baseball, especially early in the season when he is much more effective. He is once again off to a dominating start this year, and has a good spot for him to continue this trend against a team that he has had past success against. He has always been more effective at home, during night games and early in the season, three key variables that will be working in his favor today. Having past success against a few key hitters in the lineup gives him a good chance to curtail the hot streak the Astros have been displaying at the plate.
Don’t put too much stock into Rodriguez’s solid start to the season. He has been known to do such in the past as well, but regression never fails. This might be a spot for him to come back to earth, as the Brewers got a lot of looks at him last year, and roughed him up. He has performed poorly on the road in the past, and will have to face a few hitters spread around the lineup with solid success in limited at bats against him. The Brewers have always hit the ball better at home, and this year is no exception. The Astros bullpen is far from being settled out, which does not bode well for them, as they are expected to use a lot of it in today’s game.
Phillies @ Reds
Play: Phillies -126
Intrinsic Value: -152
Consider Betting Price: -140
Comment:
I believe this is the first time I have bet on the Phillies all year, as I felt that they have consistently been slightly overpriced, as public bettors were in love with their offense. Now that it appears the public is jumping ship, they are finally coming with enough value to warrant a play. Even without Howard in today’s lineup, this is a good spot for their lineup to do damage. Milton is simply pitching on the wrong team, as being a flyball pitcher for the Reds don’t mix, as their home park is really unforgiving for this style of pitching. He is really vulnerable in this particular match up, as he faces a lineup that has power spread throughout, which should take advantage of the fundamental deficiencies that he provides. It is no surprise that he has struggled against this team in the past, including and unimpressive outing against them last year. He is backed by an untalented bullpen that has been overachieving all year, but has been showing signs of regression of late. This should provide a slumping, yet dangerous Phillies lineup with scoring opportunites throughout this game.
If it weren’t for the Reds starting pitching overachieving all year, they would have a very similar record as the Phillies, as their lineup has been far from impressive. This holds especially true against southpaws, as their four most dangerous hitters come from the left side. They have a really tough match up with Hammels, who is extremely hard to pick up for left handed bats. With Griffey’s illness and the mismatch he provides for Hamilton, don’t be surprised if neither one crack the starting lineup in this game. Hammels disparity of velocity and being hard to pick up allows him to dominate any lineup in the league. In his only start against the Reds last year, he went five innings and allowed just one hit. He has had a lot more success during night games as well. He is progressively getting his pitch count up with each start, which should allow him to eat up ideal innings. Myers in the bullpen makes the team much better four out of every five games.
0
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -110
Intrinsic Value: -169
Consider Betting Price: -152
Comment:
Once again, the Orioles are trading well below their intrinsic value in this game. Although Towers is off to a solid start this season, sooner or later he will come back to earth, as he just isn’t a very solid pitcher. Both his first two starts were home starts, where he has always had more success pitching. His career road ERA is plus five, and has been hittable for both right and left handed hitters throughout his career, as both are hitting .300 against him. Although he has been able to put forth solid career totals against the Orioles, they are misleading on two accounts. One, is the notion that he isn’t as an effective pitcher compared to the time when he accumulated most of the numbers. Secondly, he has struggled against a few of the hitters in today’s lineup, while only having success against one. He has also been dominated by Huff when playing for another team. As mentioned last night, the Blue Jays bullpen is a mess without Ryan. They have no ideal backend pitcher, making any potential lead vulnerable. The Orioles are a more dangerous lineup at home and against right handed pitching.
Although the Blue Jays lineup is built to hit left handed pitching, they are not nearly as much of a threat against southpaws now that Glauss and Johnson are out of the lineup. It is also a lineup that has struggled of late, and have one of the higher disparities of productivity at home compared to the road over the last three years. Loewen also appears to be a more effective pitcher compared to the one that got roughed up by this Blue Jays team last year. He has been far more effective at home in his short career, and has been relatively effective against right handed hitters in his career. Right now more than ever, the Blue Jays need a lift from Thomas, who looks lost at the plate. The departure of Molina also makes this lineup less potent against southpaws. The Orioles bullpen is no longer a liability, and actually possesses one of the deeper and better bullpens in baseball.
Astros @ Brewers
Play: Brewers -138
Intrinsic Value: -165
Consider Betting Price: -150
Comment:
This is not an ideal match up for the Astros to continue their hot streak on the road. Capuano remains one of the most undervalued home pitchers in baseball, especially early in the season when he is much more effective. He is once again off to a dominating start this year, and has a good spot for him to continue this trend against a team that he has had past success against. He has always been more effective at home, during night games and early in the season, three key variables that will be working in his favor today. Having past success against a few key hitters in the lineup gives him a good chance to curtail the hot streak the Astros have been displaying at the plate.
Don’t put too much stock into Rodriguez’s solid start to the season. He has been known to do such in the past as well, but regression never fails. This might be a spot for him to come back to earth, as the Brewers got a lot of looks at him last year, and roughed him up. He has performed poorly on the road in the past, and will have to face a few hitters spread around the lineup with solid success in limited at bats against him. The Brewers have always hit the ball better at home, and this year is no exception. The Astros bullpen is far from being settled out, which does not bode well for them, as they are expected to use a lot of it in today’s game.
Phillies @ Reds
Play: Phillies -126
Intrinsic Value: -152
Consider Betting Price: -140
Comment:
I believe this is the first time I have bet on the Phillies all year, as I felt that they have consistently been slightly overpriced, as public bettors were in love with their offense. Now that it appears the public is jumping ship, they are finally coming with enough value to warrant a play. Even without Howard in today’s lineup, this is a good spot for their lineup to do damage. Milton is simply pitching on the wrong team, as being a flyball pitcher for the Reds don’t mix, as their home park is really unforgiving for this style of pitching. He is really vulnerable in this particular match up, as he faces a lineup that has power spread throughout, which should take advantage of the fundamental deficiencies that he provides. It is no surprise that he has struggled against this team in the past, including and unimpressive outing against them last year. He is backed by an untalented bullpen that has been overachieving all year, but has been showing signs of regression of late. This should provide a slumping, yet dangerous Phillies lineup with scoring opportunites throughout this game.
If it weren’t for the Reds starting pitching overachieving all year, they would have a very similar record as the Phillies, as their lineup has been far from impressive. This holds especially true against southpaws, as their four most dangerous hitters come from the left side. They have a really tough match up with Hammels, who is extremely hard to pick up for left handed bats. With Griffey’s illness and the mismatch he provides for Hamilton, don’t be surprised if neither one crack the starting lineup in this game. Hammels disparity of velocity and being hard to pick up allows him to dominate any lineup in the league. In his only start against the Reds last year, he went five innings and allowed just one hit. He has had a lot more success during night games as well. He is progressively getting his pitch count up with each start, which should allow him to eat up ideal innings. Myers in the bullpen makes the team much better four out of every five games.
Mariners @ Angels
Play: Mariners +145
Intrinsic Value: -102
Consider Betting Price: +118
Comment:
I am baffled to see this line priced wear it is. It seems like the public is valuing Colon as the pitcher that one the CY Young award a couple of years back, which is far from the case coming off of major shoulder surgery. Putting forth solid rehab assignments is one of the more overvalued variables in setting the line, which appears to be the case once again. 2 of the last three years, he put forth plus 5 ERA’s, and has been known to struggle against the Mariners in the past, which is a sustainable trend, as they are one of the better fastball hitting teams in the league. Even if Colon doesn’t come out rusty, he will still have to overcome pitching to a lineup that has several hitters with past success against him. Being backed by an elite bullpen doesn’t seem to bother the Mariners of late, as they have consistently done damage against some of the best bullpen pitchers in the league in recent games.
The Angels lineup is a mess right now. Even though they get Guerrero back, it is quite evident they miss the bats of Figgins, Rivera and now Kendrick. Ramirez looked solid in this last outing, and now gets to face a lineup that he fundamentally matches up well against. He is most prone to the long ball, a deficiency that should be helped out by the lack of power the Angels bring to the plate. It is also a lineup that doesn’t perform better at home.
0
Mariners @ Angels
Play: Mariners +145
Intrinsic Value: -102
Consider Betting Price: +118
Comment:
I am baffled to see this line priced wear it is. It seems like the public is valuing Colon as the pitcher that one the CY Young award a couple of years back, which is far from the case coming off of major shoulder surgery. Putting forth solid rehab assignments is one of the more overvalued variables in setting the line, which appears to be the case once again. 2 of the last three years, he put forth plus 5 ERA’s, and has been known to struggle against the Mariners in the past, which is a sustainable trend, as they are one of the better fastball hitting teams in the league. Even if Colon doesn’t come out rusty, he will still have to overcome pitching to a lineup that has several hitters with past success against him. Being backed by an elite bullpen doesn’t seem to bother the Mariners of late, as they have consistently done damage against some of the best bullpen pitchers in the league in recent games.
The Angels lineup is a mess right now. Even though they get Guerrero back, it is quite evident they miss the bats of Figgins, Rivera and now Kendrick. Ramirez looked solid in this last outing, and now gets to face a lineup that he fundamentally matches up well against. He is most prone to the long ball, a deficiency that should be helped out by the lack of power the Angels bring to the plate. It is also a lineup that doesn’t perform better at home.
Macactity,
Thanks for the compliments.
I do respect Michael Murray and feel his pursuit in bettering his handicapping sets him apart from several other well known fundamental handicappers. However, his books, like most others have flaws and leave me unfulfilled. You are probably asking the wrong person in suggesting what books to recommend, as I have yet to read one that blows me away.
As you know, I stress the importance of Money Management, so starting off with a fundamentally sound system is the first step. Once you have developed a money management approach, you could then start working out a fundamental handicapping system.
If you have knowledge in the sport, develop a power rating system in which you feel holds substance and helps you quantify a true worth of a line. Keep everything on excel, so you could backtrack, adjust, and analyze the merits of your fundamental approach. Getting to blown away in Murray’s quantitative approach can leave you missing the bigger picture, and prevent you from building the solid foundation. Once your foundation is built, you could then find Murray’s quantitative tools as enhancers that help you more accurately quantify a particular line.
Read forums as much as possible. Weed out the people you feel do it right, and try to take the variables that set them apart and employ them into your handicapping. Set up a matchbook account, as shopping for value (part of the money management area) is vital.
Feel free to ask any more questions. Good luck.
0
Macactity,
Thanks for the compliments.
I do respect Michael Murray and feel his pursuit in bettering his handicapping sets him apart from several other well known fundamental handicappers. However, his books, like most others have flaws and leave me unfulfilled. You are probably asking the wrong person in suggesting what books to recommend, as I have yet to read one that blows me away.
As you know, I stress the importance of Money Management, so starting off with a fundamentally sound system is the first step. Once you have developed a money management approach, you could then start working out a fundamental handicapping system.
If you have knowledge in the sport, develop a power rating system in which you feel holds substance and helps you quantify a true worth of a line. Keep everything on excel, so you could backtrack, adjust, and analyze the merits of your fundamental approach. Getting to blown away in Murray’s quantitative approach can leave you missing the bigger picture, and prevent you from building the solid foundation. Once your foundation is built, you could then find Murray’s quantitative tools as enhancers that help you more accurately quantify a particular line.
Read forums as much as possible. Weed out the people you feel do it right, and try to take the variables that set them apart and employ them into your handicapping. Set up a matchbook account, as shopping for value (part of the money management area) is vital.
Feel free to ask any more questions. Good luck.
Braves @ Mets
Play: Braves +110
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
Although Glavine has been pitching progressively better against the Braves, there still might not be another team I would want going up against him. There are simply too many hitters spread across the lineup that have dominated him over the years to make me feel that his improved pitching performances against the Braves holds a lot of sustainability. The Braves once again proved already once this year that they could do damage against him, and he has not been pitching as well as his ERA would indicate, as he has been able to get out of a lot of fortunate jams. Renteria, Jones, Francour and McCann have all had success against him. Adding Woodward to the lineup will allow another hitting that is hitting southpaws well to be in the lineup. Glavine has been consistently been slightly easier to pick up during day games, has been more prone to walking hitters this year, and continues to struggle against the right handed hitters he faces, which will more than likely be six or seven today. The Braves bullpen no longer holds a decisive edge over the Braves, and their two backend pitchers prior to the 9th have struggled against the Braves in the past.
Smoltz has consistently been able to curtail the talent of the Mets lineup. Last year, he dominated them, finishing with a 2.33 ERA against them in four starts. He has also already put forth a quality start against them this year. Being one of the smartest pitchers in baseball that adjusts as well as any, he seems better off pitching to lineups that he has a deep past history against. He has had past success against a couple key hitters in today’s lineup, while only two of the dominant Mets hitters have shown to have an edge against him. He is finally backed by a solid bullpen. It is also a bullpen that is more than likely going to get Gonzalez back for this game, a much needed left handed arm to go up against a lineup loaded from the left side.
Phillies @ Reds
Play: Phillies +114
Intrinsic Value: -116
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
The Phillies were finally able to do two things yesterday- win and give their bullpen a rest. Today, they will also more than likely get Howard back in the lineup. Although Belisle is off to a solid start, he finally showed he could be vulnerable in the mound, as the Brewers were able to do damage against him. Despite pitching to left handed hitters well this year, he fundamentally doesn’t match up well against them, as he is easy to pick up and lacks overpowering pitches, allowing left handers to easily get around on his pitches. This does not bode well for him going up against one of the more talented lineups from the left side. He also lacks the ideal stamina that is needed to prevent a sub par and struggling Reds bullpen from entering the game early. The Phillies have actually done a decent job getting runners on base, yet have struggled hitting in the clutch, something that is bound to reverse itself. The match up better against right handed pitchers, and have hit better during day games.
Expect Garcia to come out sharper in this game compared to his first start in which he was shaking off the cobwebs. Now that Myers is in the bullpen, Garcia is the best right handed pitcher in the rotation, and seems to be getting progressively more effective against left handed hitters, which is a huge asset when going up against this Reds lineup. He has three plus pitches, which could be a problem for a lineup whose timing is clearly off right now. The Reds have scored two runs or less in three of their last four games, and have not been able to take advantage of the hitter’s park they play in. Garcia has dominated the only hitter he has a deep past history against, as Hattenberg is just 2 for 30 against him. He is backed by a bullpen that got the day off yesterday, and are no longer vulnerable in the backend with Myers and Gordon.
Cardinals @ Cubs
Play: Cubs +124
Intrinsic Value: -102
Consider Betting Price: +120
Comment:
I am a big fan of Wainwright, and feel that he is going to be a premier right hander in the league for many years to come. However, it’s hard to make a case for any pitcher to lay such odds on the road when backed by an offense that is hitting as poorly as the Cardinals have this season. Wainwright did not looks sharp in his last outing, as his curveball did not have the bite it usually has, and he seems to lack the confidence he possessed on the mound late last season. His curveball is also much easier to pick up during day games, and it has reflected in his career totals, as he comes into today’s start with a career 4.47 day game ERA, which is a far cry from his career 2.23 night ERA. He continues to be vulnerable against left handed hitters, which the Cubs have a fair amount of talent. Even if Soriano doesn’t play, I don’t think his absence will prove terribly costly in this game, as he fundamentally doesn’t match up well against Wainwright and could also be replaced with a left handed bat. The Cardinals do not have the same talent in the bullpen compared to last year.
Although Miller has yet looked solid on the mound, there was a big improvement in his second start compared to his first. Although he will probably never be the pitcher he was prior to his injury, he still has the talent to be a decent pitcher that may warrant a play when being backed by solid odds. This may be a spot that he may finally put forth a decent outing, as he has many favorable variables working for him. First of all, he has always been far more effective during day games, and has in fact been one of the most dominant day game pitchers in baseball over the last several years. He comes into today’s game with a career day game ERA of 3.28. His stuff is hard to pick up for right handed hitters, which could be a problem for a lineup that has most of its talent bat from the right side. Going up against a completely dormant lineup will also boost his confidence, especially since he has had past success against them. He is also backed by a deep, talented, well rested, and underrated bullpen that will allow the Cubs to have leverage in pulling the plug on Miller if his start is not going well.
0
Braves @ Mets
Play: Braves +110
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
Although Glavine has been pitching progressively better against the Braves, there still might not be another team I would want going up against him. There are simply too many hitters spread across the lineup that have dominated him over the years to make me feel that his improved pitching performances against the Braves holds a lot of sustainability. The Braves once again proved already once this year that they could do damage against him, and he has not been pitching as well as his ERA would indicate, as he has been able to get out of a lot of fortunate jams. Renteria, Jones, Francour and McCann have all had success against him. Adding Woodward to the lineup will allow another hitting that is hitting southpaws well to be in the lineup. Glavine has been consistently been slightly easier to pick up during day games, has been more prone to walking hitters this year, and continues to struggle against the right handed hitters he faces, which will more than likely be six or seven today. The Braves bullpen no longer holds a decisive edge over the Braves, and their two backend pitchers prior to the 9th have struggled against the Braves in the past.
Smoltz has consistently been able to curtail the talent of the Mets lineup. Last year, he dominated them, finishing with a 2.33 ERA against them in four starts. He has also already put forth a quality start against them this year. Being one of the smartest pitchers in baseball that adjusts as well as any, he seems better off pitching to lineups that he has a deep past history against. He has had past success against a couple key hitters in today’s lineup, while only two of the dominant Mets hitters have shown to have an edge against him. He is finally backed by a solid bullpen. It is also a bullpen that is more than likely going to get Gonzalez back for this game, a much needed left handed arm to go up against a lineup loaded from the left side.
Phillies @ Reds
Play: Phillies +114
Intrinsic Value: -116
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
The Phillies were finally able to do two things yesterday- win and give their bullpen a rest. Today, they will also more than likely get Howard back in the lineup. Although Belisle is off to a solid start, he finally showed he could be vulnerable in the mound, as the Brewers were able to do damage against him. Despite pitching to left handed hitters well this year, he fundamentally doesn’t match up well against them, as he is easy to pick up and lacks overpowering pitches, allowing left handers to easily get around on his pitches. This does not bode well for him going up against one of the more talented lineups from the left side. He also lacks the ideal stamina that is needed to prevent a sub par and struggling Reds bullpen from entering the game early. The Phillies have actually done a decent job getting runners on base, yet have struggled hitting in the clutch, something that is bound to reverse itself. The match up better against right handed pitchers, and have hit better during day games.
Expect Garcia to come out sharper in this game compared to his first start in which he was shaking off the cobwebs. Now that Myers is in the bullpen, Garcia is the best right handed pitcher in the rotation, and seems to be getting progressively more effective against left handed hitters, which is a huge asset when going up against this Reds lineup. He has three plus pitches, which could be a problem for a lineup whose timing is clearly off right now. The Reds have scored two runs or less in three of their last four games, and have not been able to take advantage of the hitter’s park they play in. Garcia has dominated the only hitter he has a deep past history against, as Hattenberg is just 2 for 30 against him. He is backed by a bullpen that got the day off yesterday, and are no longer vulnerable in the backend with Myers and Gordon.
Cardinals @ Cubs
Play: Cubs +124
Intrinsic Value: -102
Consider Betting Price: +120
Comment:
I am a big fan of Wainwright, and feel that he is going to be a premier right hander in the league for many years to come. However, it’s hard to make a case for any pitcher to lay such odds on the road when backed by an offense that is hitting as poorly as the Cardinals have this season. Wainwright did not looks sharp in his last outing, as his curveball did not have the bite it usually has, and he seems to lack the confidence he possessed on the mound late last season. His curveball is also much easier to pick up during day games, and it has reflected in his career totals, as he comes into today’s start with a career 4.47 day game ERA, which is a far cry from his career 2.23 night ERA. He continues to be vulnerable against left handed hitters, which the Cubs have a fair amount of talent. Even if Soriano doesn’t play, I don’t think his absence will prove terribly costly in this game, as he fundamentally doesn’t match up well against Wainwright and could also be replaced with a left handed bat. The Cardinals do not have the same talent in the bullpen compared to last year.
Although Miller has yet looked solid on the mound, there was a big improvement in his second start compared to his first. Although he will probably never be the pitcher he was prior to his injury, he still has the talent to be a decent pitcher that may warrant a play when being backed by solid odds. This may be a spot that he may finally put forth a decent outing, as he has many favorable variables working for him. First of all, he has always been far more effective during day games, and has in fact been one of the most dominant day game pitchers in baseball over the last several years. He comes into today’s game with a career day game ERA of 3.28. His stuff is hard to pick up for right handed hitters, which could be a problem for a lineup that has most of its talent bat from the right side. Going up against a completely dormant lineup will also boost his confidence, especially since he has had past success against them. He is also backed by a deep, talented, well rested, and underrated bullpen that will allow the Cubs to have leverage in pulling the plug on Miller if his start is not going well.
Padres @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -102
Intrinsic Value: -119
Consider Betting: -107
Comment:
This appears to be a good spot for the Rockies to avoid being swept at home. Maddux is simply not the same pitcher he once was, and fundamentally doesn’t match up well against the thin air in Coors. It is no surprise the Coors has consistently given him problems, as his soft throws have the propensity to hang in this weather environment. He comes into today’s game with a career ERA approaching six in this ball park. There are a couple young, dangerous hitters that have had past success against him as well. The Rockies lineup is too talented to remain dormant for long periods of time, and taking a position on them when they are out of favor is appealing.
Hirsh is the exact pitcher you want going up against a hot lineup. The reason is that there are not many pitchers like him, as his near seven foot frame and wind up takes time adjusting too, and could break up a lineups rhythm. The Padres clearly showed that they did not pick him up well in his first outing against them, as he allowed just six hit and one run in nearly seven innings of work, and was able to strike out eight. Hirsh has also been much harder for left handed batters to hit, as they have a career .219 average against him, which could be a problem for a lineup loaded from the left side.
0
Padres @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -102
Intrinsic Value: -119
Consider Betting: -107
Comment:
This appears to be a good spot for the Rockies to avoid being swept at home. Maddux is simply not the same pitcher he once was, and fundamentally doesn’t match up well against the thin air in Coors. It is no surprise the Coors has consistently given him problems, as his soft throws have the propensity to hang in this weather environment. He comes into today’s game with a career ERA approaching six in this ball park. There are a couple young, dangerous hitters that have had past success against him as well. The Rockies lineup is too talented to remain dormant for long periods of time, and taking a position on them when they are out of favor is appealing.
Hirsh is the exact pitcher you want going up against a hot lineup. The reason is that there are not many pitchers like him, as his near seven foot frame and wind up takes time adjusting too, and could break up a lineups rhythm. The Padres clearly showed that they did not pick him up well in his first outing against them, as he allowed just six hit and one run in nearly seven innings of work, and was able to strike out eight. Hirsh has also been much harder for left handed batters to hit, as they have a career .219 average against him, which could be a problem for a lineup loaded from the left side.
I may add later.
Brewers @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -149
Intrinsic Value: -189
Consider Betting Price: -172
Comment:
Not only is Zambrano a much better pitcher than the one that has been on the mound so far this season, he has also been pitching better than his numbers indicate. He actually pitched decently against the Braves in his last start, and could have left the game allowing just one run. If an inning ending strike three was called in the first, Zambrano would not have allowed those four runs. He also dominated the Reds in the start prior until he mentally fell apart in that one inning. It is only a matter of time until he gets things back on track, and what better time to start tonight, as he is facing a team that he called out a couple of weeks ago. Zambrano’s best start so far this season has come against this Brewers lineup. He is a pitcher whose past results lack sustainability, as his performances are mainly dependent on whether he has his stuff that particular day. A good indicator of this would be the high standard deviation of performances off his career averages against this team. Although he has struggled in the past against a couple of the Brewers hitters, he has dominated their hottest one, Hall. The Brewers are a much less potent lineup away from home, and have a free swinging mentality, a potential deficiency primed to show up as they are eager to make Zambrano eat his words. He is also backed by a solid bullpen eager to redeem themselves after a horrific team performance in last nights game.
The Cubs lineup finally showed what they are capable of in yesterday’s game, as they got production and timely hitting across the lineup. Today they have a good chance of to continue that trend as they are up against an overachieving pitcher that is primed for a reality check, as he doesn’t fundamentally match up well against this Cubs lineup. Vargas is heavily dependent on his fastball, something not ideal against a Cubs lineup that is hard to overpower. The Cubs already roughed him up once in his relief appearance against them earlier this year. His lack of movement and location mistakes has made this fastball a prime home run pitch for opponents throughout his career, also a deficiency you don’t want in this game. The Cubs are also more than likely going to get Soriano back in the lineup, a premier fastball hitter. Vargas also lacks the ideal stamina to go deep into games. Although the Brewers bullpen has been pitching well of late, they have a few backend pitchers that have struggled against the Cubs in the past, and their closer has pitched four of the last five games.
0
I may add later.
Brewers @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -149
Intrinsic Value: -189
Consider Betting Price: -172
Comment:
Not only is Zambrano a much better pitcher than the one that has been on the mound so far this season, he has also been pitching better than his numbers indicate. He actually pitched decently against the Braves in his last start, and could have left the game allowing just one run. If an inning ending strike three was called in the first, Zambrano would not have allowed those four runs. He also dominated the Reds in the start prior until he mentally fell apart in that one inning. It is only a matter of time until he gets things back on track, and what better time to start tonight, as he is facing a team that he called out a couple of weeks ago. Zambrano’s best start so far this season has come against this Brewers lineup. He is a pitcher whose past results lack sustainability, as his performances are mainly dependent on whether he has his stuff that particular day. A good indicator of this would be the high standard deviation of performances off his career averages against this team. Although he has struggled in the past against a couple of the Brewers hitters, he has dominated their hottest one, Hall. The Brewers are a much less potent lineup away from home, and have a free swinging mentality, a potential deficiency primed to show up as they are eager to make Zambrano eat his words. He is also backed by a solid bullpen eager to redeem themselves after a horrific team performance in last nights game.
The Cubs lineup finally showed what they are capable of in yesterday’s game, as they got production and timely hitting across the lineup. Today they have a good chance of to continue that trend as they are up against an overachieving pitcher that is primed for a reality check, as he doesn’t fundamentally match up well against this Cubs lineup. Vargas is heavily dependent on his fastball, something not ideal against a Cubs lineup that is hard to overpower. The Cubs already roughed him up once in his relief appearance against them earlier this year. His lack of movement and location mistakes has made this fastball a prime home run pitch for opponents throughout his career, also a deficiency you don’t want in this game. The Cubs are also more than likely going to get Soriano back in the lineup, a premier fastball hitter. Vargas also lacks the ideal stamina to go deep into games. Although the Brewers bullpen has been pitching well of late, they have a few backend pitchers that have struggled against the Cubs in the past, and their closer has pitched four of the last five games.
Tigers @ Angels
Play: Tigers -106
Intrinsic Value: -129
Consider Betting Price: -112
Comment:
Prior to seasons start, I felt that Bonderman was one of the young pitchers in the league primed for a breakout year. If his first four starts are any indication, it looks like its going to be the case. He has shown great command of his pitches, walking just three batters in his first four starts, and his fastball, slider combination has overpowered each lineup he has faced. He has a good chance to make it five solid starts in a row, as he faces a team he has had past success against and fundamentally matches up well against. His style of pitching just dominates right handed hitters, which does not bode well for a lineup that is not a threat from the left side. It is also a lineup that relies more on one bat, Guerrero, more than any other lineup in baseball. This does not bode well for their chances in this game, as he has struggled against Bonderman throughout his career, coming into today’s game with just one hit and five punch outs in just eleven at bats. Bonderman has been getting progressively better pitching on the road, and was one of the better road pitchers in baseball last year. He has already put forth two solid road outings this year as well. He is backed by one of the deeper and better bullpens in the league, which is also a bullpen that matches up well against this lineup that can be overpowered.
Escobar is once again in the midst of an injury plagued season, and is fresh off the DL with shoulder problems. He has been prone to coming off the DL rusty and will be on a limited pitch count in this game. He has also been known to struggle most during day games. Although he is backed by one of the best bullpens in the league, it has not pitched that way. They had to pitch a lot of innings last night, and four of their six pitchers have struggled on the mound of late. This does not bode well for their chances, as Escobar is not expected to go deep into this game. It is only a matter of time until this dangerous Tigers lineup plays to form, and are one of the few lineups in baseball that are more dangerous hitting on the road.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Play: Red Sox +114
Intrinsic Value: -125
Consider Betting Price: -112
Comment:
I didn’t think I would see the Red Sox undervalued at home all season, but if there was going to be a game in which linesmakers put them with an undervalued price tag it was going to be a game against Holliday and with Taverez on the mound. Although Holliday has been profitable for bettors, he is still construed as an overvalued pitcher and a pitcher likely to produce negative returns going forward. Although he dominated the Red Sox just a week ago, it was away from Fenway where they are not much of a potent lineup. There was not a team in baseball that gave Holliday more problems last year than the Red Sox, especially when he had to face them in this park. He finished out the year with a five plus ERA against them, and does not have impressive career totals against this team. There is just one hitter that Holliday can say he has the upper hand against in this lineup, which is rare for him when facing a team in his division. He is backed by an injured bullpen that is a liability on the mound once he leaves the game. The Red Sox are one of the better teams at accumulating high pitch counts on the opponents starting pitchers, which can take its toll even on a workhorse like Holliday, which should make it hard for him to prevent his bullpen from playing a key role in this game.
I am not a big fan of betting on Taverez, but I feel his risks are fully factored into the market price. He actually put forth a decent start last week in Toronto, where the Blue Jays are a much more dangerous lineup. This is a series where home field advantage is magnified, as both teams have some of the highest disparities of productive when comparing home and away numbers the last three years. Taverez has also always been a much more effective pitcher at home, and has solid career numbers against this ball club. He has had past success against a few of their key hitters as well. The Red Sox two best bullpen pitchers had the day off yesterday which is a huge advantage, as Taverez is not expected to go deep into this game.
Yankees @ Devil Rays
Play: Devil Rays +148
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: +102
Comment:
Granted this is a Yankees vs. Devil Rays game, but this line is way off. Granted the Yankees have the best lineup in baseball by a mile, but this team has a lot of holes, making their record not a huge surprise. The Devil Rays always play this team tough and have always been prone to raise their game to the level of their competition. Although Kazmir is off to a slow start, he still is one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball. He also has always been a much more effective pitcher at home, where he has reached a comfort level on his mound. He pitched the Yankees well last year, including a quality start against them at home. He has also dominated a few of their hitters, including the hottest hitter in baseball right now, as Arod is only 1 for 14 against him. In fact, ARod, Jeter, and Damon come into this game a combined 6 for 46 against him. Once he leaves, all I could do is hope that this game doesn’t get ugly, a risk that I am willing to take at this price.
Wang might be the best pitcher on the Yankees, but is simply overvalued in this spot. He is making his first start of the season, and will certainly be on a limited pitch count, which does not bode well for the Yankees chances. The Devil Rays bullpen is not the only bullpen in disarray right now, as the Yankees bullpen is overworked, struggling, and were once against overmatched against the Devil Rays yesterday. Being an elite sinkerball pitcher, Wang is able to get out of a lot of jams inducing the double play ground ball. However, being a ground ball pitcher is not the most ideal thing going up against this fast Devil Rays lineup on this fast turf. It could actually be a detriment. The Devil Rays have one of the most underrated lineups in baseball, and are extremely dangerous in this home park. Wang, like Kazmir, is a young pitcher that has performed a lot better in his home starts throughout his career. Hopefully the Devil Rays could once again score enough runs to make up for their huge bullpen disadvantage.
0
Tigers @ Angels
Play: Tigers -106
Intrinsic Value: -129
Consider Betting Price: -112
Comment:
Prior to seasons start, I felt that Bonderman was one of the young pitchers in the league primed for a breakout year. If his first four starts are any indication, it looks like its going to be the case. He has shown great command of his pitches, walking just three batters in his first four starts, and his fastball, slider combination has overpowered each lineup he has faced. He has a good chance to make it five solid starts in a row, as he faces a team he has had past success against and fundamentally matches up well against. His style of pitching just dominates right handed hitters, which does not bode well for a lineup that is not a threat from the left side. It is also a lineup that relies more on one bat, Guerrero, more than any other lineup in baseball. This does not bode well for their chances in this game, as he has struggled against Bonderman throughout his career, coming into today’s game with just one hit and five punch outs in just eleven at bats. Bonderman has been getting progressively better pitching on the road, and was one of the better road pitchers in baseball last year. He has already put forth two solid road outings this year as well. He is backed by one of the deeper and better bullpens in the league, which is also a bullpen that matches up well against this lineup that can be overpowered.
Escobar is once again in the midst of an injury plagued season, and is fresh off the DL with shoulder problems. He has been prone to coming off the DL rusty and will be on a limited pitch count in this game. He has also been known to struggle most during day games. Although he is backed by one of the best bullpens in the league, it has not pitched that way. They had to pitch a lot of innings last night, and four of their six pitchers have struggled on the mound of late. This does not bode well for their chances, as Escobar is not expected to go deep into this game. It is only a matter of time until this dangerous Tigers lineup plays to form, and are one of the few lineups in baseball that are more dangerous hitting on the road.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Play: Red Sox +114
Intrinsic Value: -125
Consider Betting Price: -112
Comment:
I didn’t think I would see the Red Sox undervalued at home all season, but if there was going to be a game in which linesmakers put them with an undervalued price tag it was going to be a game against Holliday and with Taverez on the mound. Although Holliday has been profitable for bettors, he is still construed as an overvalued pitcher and a pitcher likely to produce negative returns going forward. Although he dominated the Red Sox just a week ago, it was away from Fenway where they are not much of a potent lineup. There was not a team in baseball that gave Holliday more problems last year than the Red Sox, especially when he had to face them in this park. He finished out the year with a five plus ERA against them, and does not have impressive career totals against this team. There is just one hitter that Holliday can say he has the upper hand against in this lineup, which is rare for him when facing a team in his division. He is backed by an injured bullpen that is a liability on the mound once he leaves the game. The Red Sox are one of the better teams at accumulating high pitch counts on the opponents starting pitchers, which can take its toll even on a workhorse like Holliday, which should make it hard for him to prevent his bullpen from playing a key role in this game.
I am not a big fan of betting on Taverez, but I feel his risks are fully factored into the market price. He actually put forth a decent start last week in Toronto, where the Blue Jays are a much more dangerous lineup. This is a series where home field advantage is magnified, as both teams have some of the highest disparities of productive when comparing home and away numbers the last three years. Taverez has also always been a much more effective pitcher at home, and has solid career numbers against this ball club. He has had past success against a few of their key hitters as well. The Red Sox two best bullpen pitchers had the day off yesterday which is a huge advantage, as Taverez is not expected to go deep into this game.
Yankees @ Devil Rays
Play: Devil Rays +148
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: +102
Comment:
Granted this is a Yankees vs. Devil Rays game, but this line is way off. Granted the Yankees have the best lineup in baseball by a mile, but this team has a lot of holes, making their record not a huge surprise. The Devil Rays always play this team tough and have always been prone to raise their game to the level of their competition. Although Kazmir is off to a slow start, he still is one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball. He also has always been a much more effective pitcher at home, where he has reached a comfort level on his mound. He pitched the Yankees well last year, including a quality start against them at home. He has also dominated a few of their hitters, including the hottest hitter in baseball right now, as Arod is only 1 for 14 against him. In fact, ARod, Jeter, and Damon come into this game a combined 6 for 46 against him. Once he leaves, all I could do is hope that this game doesn’t get ugly, a risk that I am willing to take at this price.
Wang might be the best pitcher on the Yankees, but is simply overvalued in this spot. He is making his first start of the season, and will certainly be on a limited pitch count, which does not bode well for the Yankees chances. The Devil Rays bullpen is not the only bullpen in disarray right now, as the Yankees bullpen is overworked, struggling, and were once against overmatched against the Devil Rays yesterday. Being an elite sinkerball pitcher, Wang is able to get out of a lot of jams inducing the double play ground ball. However, being a ground ball pitcher is not the most ideal thing going up against this fast Devil Rays lineup on this fast turf. It could actually be a detriment. The Devil Rays have one of the most underrated lineups in baseball, and are extremely dangerous in this home park. Wang, like Kazmir, is a young pitcher that has performed a lot better in his home starts throughout his career. Hopefully the Devil Rays could once again score enough runs to make up for their huge bullpen disadvantage.
Rockies @ Mets
Play: Rockies +192
Intrinsic Value: +129
Consider Betting Price: +155
Comment:
I hate betting against this Mets team, but I am willing to bet against any team when being backed by this much value. Hernandez simply does not warrant such odds. He is one of the most volatile pitchers in baseball that could implode in any game. Although he is off to a solid start, it simply lacks sustainability. He has yet to face a lineup that is terribly talented from the left side, and is extremely vulnerable against such, as he still hasn’t figured out how to get left handed hitters out. Although the Rockies are not loaded from the left side, they will put three dangerous left handed hitters in the lineup, two of them that can already claim ownage on Hernandez. The Rockies have one of the more potent lineups in the National League, and have been underachieving all season. It is just a mater of time until they break out and play to their potential. It was just two day ago when they hit a savvy soft throwing veteran in Maddux. Although the Mets have one of the best bullpens in the league, it is not as good as I originally thought, and has been struggling as of late on the mound.
Cook continues to be one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball. Being a premier sinkerball pitcher is also ideal going up against a lineup that has so much power spread across the lineup. Cook has performed well on the road this year and has put forth solid career totals against this team. Although he is vulnerable against left handed hitting, which can prove costly against this Mets lineup, all but one left handed hitter on the team does not have much of a past history against him, which might take a couple of go arounds to take advantage of this deficiency. The only left handed bat with a past history against him, Green, has struggled hitting him. Although the Rockies bullpen is not one of the better ones, it is a bullpen that has become much better now that they got Hawkins out of the set up role. They also have an ideal closer to curtail the effects of this lineup. I feel the Rockies have a much better chance of winning this game, compared to what the market price reflects.
Brewers @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -146
Intrinsic Value: -176
Consider Betting Price: -160
Comment:
Although the Cubs have taken ten years off my life in the last two days, I feel that they will reward patient bettors that still have faith that they will turn things around this season. With an overworked bullpen, it is ideal to have a solid pitching on the mound, and that is exactly what they are going to get as they send the most dominant pitcher in baseball year to date on the mound. Hill is also a pitcher that matches up perfectly against this free swinging Brewers lineup, as he can pick apart impatient lineups with his curveball. He already dominated them once this season, going seven innings and allowing just one hit. That start was no fluke, as he has solid success against them last year as well, and has allowed just seven hits in over 18 innings of work. He has performed much better at home in his short career, and has gone at least seven innings in all three starts. Having a struggling backend of the bullpen being overworked might be a short term blessing, as the Cubs front end bullpen has performed much better and might be forced to play the backend role in this game. Hill is just as hard on right handed hitters as he is left handed hitters, which should curtail the balance effect the Brewers have in their lineup.
One of the Cubs hitting problems this year is their propensity to wait on fastballs and try to hit them out of the stadium. Opponent pitching has taken advantage of this deficiency by pitching backwards and not giving them a lot of fastballs. Having a pitcher like Suppan on the mound might be a blessing, as this finesse pitcher might prevent the Cubs for waiting on fastballs. He has struggled on the road the last couple of years, and although he has put forth solid career totals against the Cubs, they are misleading. There are three key hitters in the lineup that have dominated him throughout his career, while a couple of other hitters have put forth respectable numbers as well. The Brewers bullpen is not as good as what they showed yesterday, and having pitched eight innings yesterday will be short handed in today’s game.
Reds @ Cardinals
Play: Reds +134
Intrinsic Value: +104
Consider Betting Price: +128
Comment:
The Reds have been one of the most overvalued teams all year, and their recent struggles have finally allowed them to come with some value in this game. It is only a matter of time until Wells comes back to earth, and this might be a good spot for him to do such. He showed that he could get hit by left handed dominated lineups in his last start, and although he has pitched left handers effectively this year, has struggled throughout his career against them. This does not bode well for his chances in tonight’s game, as he is up against a lineup whose talent predominantly comes from the left side. He has not had past success against the Reds, and has struggled against some of their hitters, including Griffey, who is expected back in the lineup. He is backed by a bullpen that is not as good as last years.
I have no problem backing Harrang when getting value. He was one of the best road pitchers in baseball last year, finishing out the year with a sub three road ERA. Being a fly ball pitcher, pitching in this park should also help his cause. One solid game is not enough evidence that the Cardinals lineup has gotten out of their season long funk. Harrang does not have impressive numbers against this team, but has in fact dominated some of their hitters, including Rolen, who is coming off a five hit game, as he has managed just 3 hits in 25 at bats against him. The Reds bullpen is bad and is struggling, but Harrang is one of the biggest workhorses in the league and does a good job going deep into games. Pitching on six days rest should only improve his chances of going deep into this game.
0
Rockies @ Mets
Play: Rockies +192
Intrinsic Value: +129
Consider Betting Price: +155
Comment:
I hate betting against this Mets team, but I am willing to bet against any team when being backed by this much value. Hernandez simply does not warrant such odds. He is one of the most volatile pitchers in baseball that could implode in any game. Although he is off to a solid start, it simply lacks sustainability. He has yet to face a lineup that is terribly talented from the left side, and is extremely vulnerable against such, as he still hasn’t figured out how to get left handed hitters out. Although the Rockies are not loaded from the left side, they will put three dangerous left handed hitters in the lineup, two of them that can already claim ownage on Hernandez. The Rockies have one of the more potent lineups in the National League, and have been underachieving all season. It is just a mater of time until they break out and play to their potential. It was just two day ago when they hit a savvy soft throwing veteran in Maddux. Although the Mets have one of the best bullpens in the league, it is not as good as I originally thought, and has been struggling as of late on the mound.
Cook continues to be one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball. Being a premier sinkerball pitcher is also ideal going up against a lineup that has so much power spread across the lineup. Cook has performed well on the road this year and has put forth solid career totals against this team. Although he is vulnerable against left handed hitting, which can prove costly against this Mets lineup, all but one left handed hitter on the team does not have much of a past history against him, which might take a couple of go arounds to take advantage of this deficiency. The only left handed bat with a past history against him, Green, has struggled hitting him. Although the Rockies bullpen is not one of the better ones, it is a bullpen that has become much better now that they got Hawkins out of the set up role. They also have an ideal closer to curtail the effects of this lineup. I feel the Rockies have a much better chance of winning this game, compared to what the market price reflects.
Brewers @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -146
Intrinsic Value: -176
Consider Betting Price: -160
Comment:
Although the Cubs have taken ten years off my life in the last two days, I feel that they will reward patient bettors that still have faith that they will turn things around this season. With an overworked bullpen, it is ideal to have a solid pitching on the mound, and that is exactly what they are going to get as they send the most dominant pitcher in baseball year to date on the mound. Hill is also a pitcher that matches up perfectly against this free swinging Brewers lineup, as he can pick apart impatient lineups with his curveball. He already dominated them once this season, going seven innings and allowing just one hit. That start was no fluke, as he has solid success against them last year as well, and has allowed just seven hits in over 18 innings of work. He has performed much better at home in his short career, and has gone at least seven innings in all three starts. Having a struggling backend of the bullpen being overworked might be a short term blessing, as the Cubs front end bullpen has performed much better and might be forced to play the backend role in this game. Hill is just as hard on right handed hitters as he is left handed hitters, which should curtail the balance effect the Brewers have in their lineup.
One of the Cubs hitting problems this year is their propensity to wait on fastballs and try to hit them out of the stadium. Opponent pitching has taken advantage of this deficiency by pitching backwards and not giving them a lot of fastballs. Having a pitcher like Suppan on the mound might be a blessing, as this finesse pitcher might prevent the Cubs for waiting on fastballs. He has struggled on the road the last couple of years, and although he has put forth solid career totals against the Cubs, they are misleading. There are three key hitters in the lineup that have dominated him throughout his career, while a couple of other hitters have put forth respectable numbers as well. The Brewers bullpen is not as good as what they showed yesterday, and having pitched eight innings yesterday will be short handed in today’s game.
Reds @ Cardinals
Play: Reds +134
Intrinsic Value: +104
Consider Betting Price: +128
Comment:
The Reds have been one of the most overvalued teams all year, and their recent struggles have finally allowed them to come with some value in this game. It is only a matter of time until Wells comes back to earth, and this might be a good spot for him to do such. He showed that he could get hit by left handed dominated lineups in his last start, and although he has pitched left handers effectively this year, has struggled throughout his career against them. This does not bode well for his chances in tonight’s game, as he is up against a lineup whose talent predominantly comes from the left side. He has not had past success against the Reds, and has struggled against some of their hitters, including Griffey, who is expected back in the lineup. He is backed by a bullpen that is not as good as last years.
I have no problem backing Harrang when getting value. He was one of the best road pitchers in baseball last year, finishing out the year with a sub three road ERA. Being a fly ball pitcher, pitching in this park should also help his cause. One solid game is not enough evidence that the Cardinals lineup has gotten out of their season long funk. Harrang does not have impressive numbers against this team, but has in fact dominated some of their hitters, including Rolen, who is coming off a five hit game, as he has managed just 3 hits in 25 at bats against him. The Reds bullpen is bad and is struggling, but Harrang is one of the biggest workhorses in the league and does a good job going deep into games. Pitching on six days rest should only improve his chances of going deep into this game.
Padres @ Diamondbacks
Play: Padres +136
Intrinsic Value: +115
Consider Betting Price: +134
Comment:
It seems like the public is quickly forgetting how painful Johnson was on his backers last year and that he clearly showed that he is not the same pitcher he once was. I have no problem betting against him in his first start coming off back surgery when the price is right. There is no doubt that he will be on a limited pitch count, and the Diamondbacks bullpen will play a key role in this game, which does not bode well for his chances. Johnson proved last year that he is no longer an intimidating factor on the mound, lacks the confidence he once had, is prone to the long ball and the walk. Until he proves this to be no longer the case, I will assume it will to an extent. Although he has dominated the Padres and a few of their hitters, these numbers were accumulated when he was a much more effective pitcher.
I am not a big fan of betting on Wells, especially in his road outings. However, I have no problem betting on him when he is up against a young lineup that prefers power pitchers, as his savvy style could still take advantage of the lack of experience some lineups bring to the table. Wells is coming off his best outing of the season, where he allowed just three hits in seven innings of work, and it was against this same Dimaondbacks lineup. The Diamondbacks are young, and have already shown to be streaky and feed off of emotion. Right now they are on a downward trend, and lack momentum, coming into this game losing their last four, and scoring just three in their last three games. Wells is also backed by the best bullpen in the National League, which should give the Padres the clear edge in the later innings.
Giants @ Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -147
Intrinsic Value: -184
Consider Betting Price: -167
Comment:
Don’t put too much stock into Morris’s fast start. He proved the last three years that he is in a downward trend in his career and clearly past his prime. Tonight is a good spot for him to get a reality check, as he is up against a lineup that has always had success against him. Morris comes into this game with a career mid 5 ERA against the Dodgers, and was dominated by them last year. He has never been as an effective pitcher on the road, and has been getting progressively worse pitching away from home. Last year, his road ERA reached the mid fives, which includes a poor outing in his only start in this park. It is no surprise that there are a few hitters that have had past success against him in tonight’s lineup. Once Morris leaves, the Dodgers should still have run scoring options as the Giants have a sub par bullpen.
Lowe continues to be one of the better valued home pitchers in baseball. Last year he was one of the better home pitchers in the league, and has put forth elite pitching home numbers throughout his career, and he comes into today’s game with a career 3.38 home ERA. This is a good spot for him to continue his home success, as he is up against a team that he has dominated in the past, including a dominant outing against them this year. He has produced a mid 3 ERA against the Giants in over fifty innings of work, and has had past success against a few of their hitters, including Bonds, who is hitless in six tries. Being backed by the better bullpen should allow the Dodgers to have the better pitcher on the mound throughout this game.
0
Padres @ Diamondbacks
Play: Padres +136
Intrinsic Value: +115
Consider Betting Price: +134
Comment:
It seems like the public is quickly forgetting how painful Johnson was on his backers last year and that he clearly showed that he is not the same pitcher he once was. I have no problem betting against him in his first start coming off back surgery when the price is right. There is no doubt that he will be on a limited pitch count, and the Diamondbacks bullpen will play a key role in this game, which does not bode well for his chances. Johnson proved last year that he is no longer an intimidating factor on the mound, lacks the confidence he once had, is prone to the long ball and the walk. Until he proves this to be no longer the case, I will assume it will to an extent. Although he has dominated the Padres and a few of their hitters, these numbers were accumulated when he was a much more effective pitcher.
I am not a big fan of betting on Wells, especially in his road outings. However, I have no problem betting on him when he is up against a young lineup that prefers power pitchers, as his savvy style could still take advantage of the lack of experience some lineups bring to the table. Wells is coming off his best outing of the season, where he allowed just three hits in seven innings of work, and it was against this same Dimaondbacks lineup. The Diamondbacks are young, and have already shown to be streaky and feed off of emotion. Right now they are on a downward trend, and lack momentum, coming into this game losing their last four, and scoring just three in their last three games. Wells is also backed by the best bullpen in the National League, which should give the Padres the clear edge in the later innings.
Giants @ Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -147
Intrinsic Value: -184
Consider Betting Price: -167
Comment:
Don’t put too much stock into Morris’s fast start. He proved the last three years that he is in a downward trend in his career and clearly past his prime. Tonight is a good spot for him to get a reality check, as he is up against a lineup that has always had success against him. Morris comes into this game with a career mid 5 ERA against the Dodgers, and was dominated by them last year. He has never been as an effective pitcher on the road, and has been getting progressively worse pitching away from home. Last year, his road ERA reached the mid fives, which includes a poor outing in his only start in this park. It is no surprise that there are a few hitters that have had past success against him in tonight’s lineup. Once Morris leaves, the Dodgers should still have run scoring options as the Giants have a sub par bullpen.
Lowe continues to be one of the better valued home pitchers in baseball. Last year he was one of the better home pitchers in the league, and has put forth elite pitching home numbers throughout his career, and he comes into today’s game with a career 3.38 home ERA. This is a good spot for him to continue his home success, as he is up against a team that he has dominated in the past, including a dominant outing against them this year. He has produced a mid 3 ERA against the Giants in over fifty innings of work, and has had past success against a few of their hitters, including Bonds, who is hitless in six tries. Being backed by the better bullpen should allow the Dodgers to have the better pitcher on the mound throughout this game.
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