MLB 2007

Here are five favorites in which I deem undervalued. Braves I think the improved play of the Cardinals in recent series coupled with the improved pitching of Wells were fully reflected in the opening line, and then some. Even with the Braves line moving up since the open, I feel there still exists some value on this road favorite, and or worth betting at a line better than -146. Although Wells enters this game with three straight quality starts, putting forth such outings against a slumping Brewers lineup and a sub par Nationals and Padres lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Another variable that may affect the sustainability of his improved pitching is the notion of going on ten days rest, a layoff duration in which he has not responded well in the past to. Well’s post break peripherals are not commensurate to the drastic improvement in his post break ERA. The Braves have been one of the better hitting road teams all year, and have enough talent from the left side to give fundamental match up problems for Wells. Although the Cardinals have been one of the better hitting teams in the league in recent series, being able to face seven sub par pitchers in their last ten games is certainly grounds for inflated numbers. This will not be the case in today’s game going up against a pitcher that looks to have gotten things back on track after going through a stretch a month ago where he did not look comfortable on the mound. Smoltz is coming off his most dominant outing of the season, and has not shown a history of slowdown in recent years, making his off- starts probably just that. The Cardinals improved productivity at the plate has predominantly come off left handed pitching, while potential absence of Puljos depreciates there offensive production substantially, especially having past success against Smoltz. Rockies Much like the Cardinals and Wells, Hill and the Nationals are an underdog willing to be backed, creating value on a Rockies team that has quietly (but abruptly) become out of favor once their hot streak subsided. In my opinion, they are the most undervalued team on today’s card. There is no denying Hills productivity on the mound this season. His pitching peripherals support his low ERA, making a case for potential regression a bit less convincing. That said, one still has to ponder how long an inexperienced pitcher who lacks overpowering stuff can sustain such numbers, and whether we have seen the best of him this season. Pitching at Coors for the first time is also more times than not an embedded disadvantage for a pitcher, and being a ground ball pitcher whose ground ball rate has decreased in each passing month is also not something one wants in this park. Although the Rockies bats have cooled of late, their talent spread throughout the lineup makes them a less likely candidate to stat dormant for long durations. Although Hill provides the Nats a good chance of avoiding a front end pen, it has been their backend that has been the problem in recent series. Francis has looked much better on the mound than his current form. He has also been known for second half slowdowns. That said, I do not mind backing him when he appears out of favor, especially against a lineup with not much past history against him. Francis has one of the harder deliveries to pick up and is one of the better southpaws in getting hitters to go out of the zone. These are to embedded advantages that should be magnified when facing a young and aggressive Nationals lineup. Francis has shown no ill effects of pitching in this park, while his sinkerball coupled with the Nationals lack of power are ideal in countering this ball parks effects. Giants The Giants have quietly been playing some really good baseball in recent series. Lowry has quietly been pitching some really good baseball all year, but has flown under the radar in San Francisco due to Bonds, Zito and his struggles, Cain and his lack of support, and the hype of Lincecum. It is no surprise that he is providing backers with value tonight, especially being at home where he holds one of the highest pitching disparities in baseball. In my opinion, the Giants are worth betting at a price below -121. Lowry has once again been one of the best and most undervalued home pitchers in baseball this year. Entering this game with an 8-2 record and sub three ERA is clear indication that his home dominance in years past is more than a random trend. Although his high WHIP does not support his low ERA, his improved groundball rate this year allows him to get away with his high walk propensity. So should facing an aggressive lineup whose productivity drastically drops on the road. Lowry is also backed by an underrated bullpen that finally appears to have found an 8th inning guy to compliment their underrated closer, forcing the Brewers slumping lineup to face quality pitching throughout. As expected, Vargas fast started (which was accompanied with a high whip) was not sustainable, as his fly ball propensity could only hold off his high walk rate for so long. His five plus post break ERA and near seven August ERA is more to form. Vargas’s walk rate continues to tread dangerous levels, while his strike out rate declines, his fly ball rate, well hit rate and home run rate increase. Facing a team who has carried their ownage against him from Arizona to Milwaukee is also not ideal for a struggling pitcher. Nor is being backed by a bullpen with a few pitchers that appear lost on the mound in recent series.

Devil Rays Some can argue how can the team with the worst record in baseball be favored against one of the hotter teams in the league and against a pitcher who possesses one of the lowest ERA’s in the league. In my opinion, strong fundamental indicators show the Drays should be favored and also considered at a price better than -126. Shields appears to have gotten things back on track, after a dry spell caused by a few things including improper mechanics. Four straight quality starts, including ones against the Indians, Tigers and Red Sox shows Shields has a good chance to overmatch one of the more anemic lineups in the league. Despite possessing unimpressive numbers against the A’s in a small sample, his style of pitching is ideal against a lineup that tries to draw walks and forces a pitcher to throw strikes. His pitching style is also ideal while being backed by the worst bullpen in the league, as his pitching for contact style allows him to eat up more innings than Kazmir. With Wheeler and Reyes slowly getting things back on track, and improved pitching of Glover, the Drays back end is not as vulnerable as it once was. DiNardo’s solid season lacks sustainability. His substantially decreasing groundball rate coupled with his increased well hit rate makes him a less likely candidate to get out of jams that allowed him to produce such a low ERA. Pitching on a fast carpet and against a fast lineup makes his pitching style less effective. The Drays lineup is still talented and potent against southpaws, and could overmatch an overrated A’s bullpen. Twins I rarely go in this price range on a road team, especially when backing a public darling like Santana, but this is mostly a go-against a pitcher I have been going against for a couple months now in Guthrie, as it appears that his line still has not caught up to his current form. Although most places have the Twins at a price above my -160 price target a couple have (and a couple more should have) them below this price prior to first pitch. Santana’s dominance doesn’t not have to be mentioned in great detail. It is there for all to see. Coming off the most dominant outing of the season, being a notorious second half pitcher whose road productivity has been solid all year, and having just a few more starts before contract talks gives him enough factors to feed off that performance. So does facing a team prone to tired bats coming off the Rangers series. Backed by a top tier bullpen should give the Orioles little scoring opportunities to back their struggling starter. As expected, Guthrie was unable to keep his dominant numbers sustained. Not expected was the drastic drop off, and five plus post break ERA where he has allowed a home run every four innings. Mechanics, fatigue and a lack of confidence seem to all be weighing on his regression. Facing a lineup with enough left handed talent to take advantage of his steadily increasing ISO against such hitters should allow the Twins to get enough run support for Santana.

The first couple of weeks of the football season are always intriguing ones, as the “unknown” makes for a more inefficient market places, as both oddsmakers and handicappers have less to go by in quantifying the worth of teams. Nonetheless, I have found a lot of plays in which I feel the line is not accurately set, mostly in teams laying points. Chiefs @ Texans Play: Chiefs +3 +105 (Double Play) Comment: This game is a perfect example in which “public perception” of what went down in the preseason has created opportunities for the out of favor Chiefs, who are now getting at least four more points (at most places) than they were prior to the start of the pre season. Johnson’s holdout, potential rustiness for a lack of playing time, potential burnout from 400 plus carries last year coupled with a stagnant offensive passing in the preseason has made public bettors shy away from the Chiefs and towards a “sexy” new look Texans team lead by a lot of young talent. However, this is still a game possessing two below average defenses and passing games, which leads me to believe the battle in the trenches, will be magnified. This is where the Chiefs hold the biggest disparity in the game. Although the Chiefs line has depreciated from last year, their style of running is the exact style to take advantage of the youth and lack of patience the Texans front seven brings to the table. Johnson’s rust is blown out of proportion, and should still be primed into dictating the tempo of this game. Backed by an underrated back up, whose big play potential is exactly what is needed against a Texans run defense who has allowed more 20 plus gains on the ground than any other team over the last three years. Bennett should give the Chiefs a good change of pace, keep Johnson fresh throughout the game, while the combination should allow an underrated Huard to employ a conservative passing attack that is not terribly demanding nor prone to mistakes. Huard is not one of the better quarterbacks in the league, but from a handicappers perspective is an ideal quarterback, as he is one of the more underrated ones. The Chiefs passing attack is also the ideal style to take advantage of the Texans Cover 2, as relying the tight end and running back in passing game as much as they do takes away the main purpose of what the Cover 2 is designed to prevent. Don’t expect a dazzling performance out of the Chiefs offense(their offense is no longer the high octane one of years past) but an efficient and conservative one. Big name free agents of Green and Schaub may improve the Texans offense, but would be surprised to see them improve it as much as everyone is expecting them to. Schaub is still in inexperience quarterback working with a new offense, and will see much more complex looks than the ones he played against in the pre season. Green is well past his prime, and no longer the ideal running back in taking the pressure off a quarterback or carrying an offense. More importantly both new additions potential will be stunted by the still anemic Texans offensive line, which are weak in both the running and passing game. The Texans still lack the ideal number 2 receiver in complimenting Johnson, allowing opposing teams to take him out of the game with double coverage. Law, with safety help, should prevent Johnson from having a breakout game. The Chiefs running game should be the biggest difference in the game, and the exact advantage a “struggling” team needs to pull out a victory on the road Chiefs @ Texans Play Over 37.5 (+100) Commnet: I also like the Over in this game. The Chiefs high octane offense of years past was more times than not, fully quantified in their lines. Now known as the contrary, it appears that the perception of an anemic offense is more than more than quantified in the line. The Texans Defense is loaded with young talent, but are still raw, prone to giving up the big play as well as making the big play, which in a nutshell is an ideal “Over” defense. Their lack of size and vulnerability in their front four should allow the Chiefs to constantly move the ball on the ground, force a stacked box, thus opening up plays downfield. Their lack of size this early in the season makes them vulnerable to where down late in this game. The Chiefs red zone offense is still potent and possesses more than one top tier red zone threat, which should allow them to finish off their better drives with touchdowns. The talk of the Chiefs problems on offense has forced many to forget about their holes on defense and the fact they are below average and have always been more vulnerable on the road. Although the addition of Schuab should pay more dividends as the season progresses, he may be a more intriguing “Over” quarterback now. His unfamiliarity with the offense may make Kubiak more willing to try the home run play. He has a stronger arm than Carr, and will not rely on the first level passing game that Carr was heavily dependent on. He is also more prone to mistakes and giving the Chiefs defense big play potential. The Texans receivers predominantly home run players rather than possession receivers. Both teams should at least reach the 17 point mark, as both defenses are not good enough to completely shutdown an offense. With the Chiefs offense completely out of favor, in my opinion, the Over in their games appears to be a value play.

Falcons @ Vikings Play: Vikings -3 (-110) Comment: No denying that the Falcons are out of favor when it comes to negative publicity and this years’ expectations. However, I don’t feel that being carried over into Sunday’s game. A wait-and see attitude seems to be in full force with Jackson and potential Vikings backers. Although that may prove to be prudent, I don’t feel that it is necessary, as the combination of the Vikings having one of the better offensive lines and backfield combinations in the league should prove to be the deciding factor in this game. The Vikings size up front should give a decisive trench advantage even up against stacked boxes (as they proved that to be the case all last year). The Falcons front seven is well below ideal talent and size wise for such a match up, and the absence of Coleman should only magnify the issue. Home field advantage and the running game disparity should take much needed pressure off a raw Jackson, and not force him into mistake situations (Johnsons mistakes last year was the main detriment to the Vikings season) Jackons is the not the quarterback to move the chains with a consistent first level passing game, but has the arm to make big plays. This compliments the Vikings offensive game plan as well as their receiver’s style. The stacked box and Falcons sub par pass defense (and overaggressive) can open up opportunities downfield to compliment the power running game. Jackson is the not only quarterback question mark in this game, as Harrington is as well. Coming off a disappointing season with a new team (and more talented passing options) Harrington is going to try his luck with another new team, but this time under the spotlight. Ideally, being Harrington’s first game with his new team and being a road game, the Falcons would like to establish a solid running game. This should be nothing more than wishful thinking, as the Vikings dominant front four should take over the trenches and shutdown a suspect Falcons run game. Harrington will more than likely have to carry the team more than the Falcons would like. Lacking talented receivers to exploit an average Vikings pass defense, the Falcons should have a hard time moving the chains in this game, especially if forced into a one dimensional role. Their biggest threat, Crumpler, should see his value depreciate under this new offensive scheme. Broncos @ Bills Play: Broncos -3 (-114) Comment: The Bills are one team that overachieved last year. Although being a young team with one more year of experience under them would initially lead one to assume an improvement year is in the cards, I just don’t see that being the case, as off season losses have left this team with a lot of holes. Losman still is an inconsistent quarterback not prime to beat one of the better teams in the league. Now lacking a power running game to take the pressure off of him, the Bills offense will have to rely on his arm more this season. The Bills passing game is highly dependent on big plays, as Losman’s inconsistency coupled with his lines inconsistency and a lack of more than one above average receiving option makes it hard for them to move the ball downfield via a first and second level passing game plan. This does not bode well for their chances this week, as over relying on Evans should prove costly, as he should be shutdown by Bailey. The addition of Bly should allow Price to be overmatched as well, leaving Losman with receiving options well below par and probably looking at an over reliance of their running game, another entity in which the Bills should be overmatched in. Thomas running style should be negated by the gap shooting ability of the Broncos back seven, while Lynch’s “rawness” should be exploited by their linebackers discipline and cohesiveness. It is just hard to see how the Bills will be able to consistently move the ball, let along finish off drives. The Bills defense took a big step down this season. The loss of Fletcher and Spikes makes their linebacking unit suspect, which can prove costly, as overachieving linebacker play helped hide the lack of size and talent the Bills have up front. The absence of Clements will open up an entire side of the field for opposing passing games that just wasn’t them for years. Henry’s running style (his patience and ability to make plays develop) is the ideal fit for the Broncos zone running scheme, while extra motivation of playing against his former team should give him that much more intensity. Cutlers arm and increased inexperience from last year coupled with an improved assortment of passing options should make the Broncos offense two dimensional. Expect an above average day on the ground and through the air for the Broncos offense, making laying 3 points on the road not terribly demanding. Patriots @ Jets Play: Patriots -6 (-106) Comment: Being one of many who think that the Patriots have drastically improved and probably are the best team in the league, it is hard to assume that they will ever be undervalued. However, being up against a team in which I feel will have one of the biggest drop-offs from last year, and I am not terribly surprised that the Patriots are a play for me this week. Brady finally has an arsenal of receiving option that he has been lacking his entire career, making him primed for his best season yet. More importantly, it also makes the Patriots better primed in covering big spreads, as they should have no problem scoring in bunches. The Jets defense overachieved last year, possess holds up front and in their secondary, and lack the ideal depth to counter the spread out formation commensurate with the Patriots talent level on offense. Brady should be able to find mismatches and single coverage’s throughout, and the Patriots ability to pass protect with only five, should only magnify the issue. The Patriots running game is also a dangerous one, particularly in this match up, as their power style should bode well against and undersized front seven that should be forced to spread out and have at least five defensive backs on the field on the majority of plays. Brady having an inflow of red zone threats and the ability to go to the “least expected” should not only allow the Patriots to move the ball at will, but finish off drives with relative ease as well. The Jets offense, and more specifically Pennington, are not built to play catch up, a role that they will probably be forced into from the onset of this game. Pennington’s lack of arm strength and lack of play making options will make it hard for the Jets to match points or keep this game close. The advantage the Patriots have in the front seven even without Seymour or Harrison stacking the box will make it hard for the Jets to slow down the tempo with a running game. Belichick knows Pennington and the Jets offense well, which should magnify the deficiencies and mismatches, while the leverage of the Jets offense working in potential duress should do the same. Expect the Patriots to be determined to make a statement after how last season ended and with all their improvements. The Jets simply lack the talent to keep pace, making a two possession win probable in my opinion.

Patriots @ Jets Play: Over 40.5 Comment: I also like Over in this game, predominantly because of the expected pace. Expect Brady to showcase his new “toys” with a more aggressive scheme that opens up the field and takes more chances downfield. The big play ability of Moss and Stallworth can set up scores not demanding on the clock. Their run game should move the ball in bunches as well against an outmatched front concentrated on the pass. The Patriots red zone offense is as good as it gets, and I don’t expect many field goals out of them. The Jets will probably be forced into a more one dimensional passing game plan sooner than they would like. Don’t expect them to implement a slow pace. This one dimensional style will not be clock demanding, and usually leads Pennington into mistakes that set up easy scores for the opposition. If the Jets score more than 13, this game should go Over, and that should not be terribly demanding for a home team, even if outmatched. Titans @ Jaguars Play: Jaguars -7 (-104) Comment: With all eyes on Young in Tennessee, the perception on this team is skewed, as the positions around him leave a lot to be desired. With his two biggest playmakers from last year no longer on the team, Young should run into problems this year when facing the tougher defenses in the league like Jaguars. As a passer, Young is one of the worst in the league. Being a third level passer whose best third level option Bennett now in St. Louis coupled with going up against one of the better Cover 2’s in defending Young’s style, and protected by a line that has depreciated from last year should leave little room for improvement in Young’s passing rating. The Jagaurs team speed and consistent pass rush should make it hard for Young to make things happen with his legs as well, and force a Texans offense to rely on the running game to keep this game close. Without Henry and now lacking an ideal perimeter runner, the Titans will be forced to get things going against the heart and soul of the Jaguars defense- their interior run defense. The bottom line is that the Titans should have trouble on the ground as well as in the air. The best chance for them to keep things close is to limit their mistakes and hope the Jaguars offense falters. Without an ideal running back and Young still vulnerable to the turnover, expect a big play Jaguars defense to make it hard for the Titans to even avoid such. One of Garrard’s problems in years past (look no further than the week 15 game against the Titans) has been trying to make too much happen with every play- as if he were playing for the starting job each down rather than the win. Now that the quarterback controversy has been put to rest, expect him to work better within his realm. But it is should be the potent one two running back combination and physical Jaguars line that will be the difference in this game. Having one of the worst front fours in the league, the Jaguars power running game should work at will from the onset. This style of running is designed to wear down the defense, leading me to believe it should only get more effective as the game progresses. It should also allow Garrard to work under manageable passing situations and get the ball out early, when he is more effective and less prone to error. With the lack of pressure the Titans rush can commit, Garrard should be fine locating mismatches with the Jaugars multiple receiver sets. The addition of Northcut may not seem like much, but gives the Jaguars a type of receiver they have been lacking for a couple of years now. The Jaguars passing game wont be dominant but wont have to be to win by two possessions. The biggest concern is the Jaguars propensity to play down to their competition, a variable less likely during the first week of the season. The Jaguars are one of the better teams in the league, yet still one of the more underrated ones that should dominate their first game at home. Titans @ Jaguars Play: Under 38 (+102) Comment: This game has the makings of a physical smash mouth game which should possess a lot of power running and neither offense taking many chances. The Jaguars go as far as their power running game takes them. The Titans should counter with a stacked box that should force the Jaguars in a grind out mode. Last year, the Titans were a dangerous Under bet, as their pass defense was as bad as it gets. Although not improved, Garrard lacks the arm Leftwich provided them, and replaces it with a more conservative passing game and scrambling ability that slows down the tempo. The Jaguars red zone offense is suspect, especially if the Titans force them to throw in the short field. The Titans know that if they want to pull of an upset they will need to establish a run game, as Young can not beat this pass defense with his arm, especially while lacking passing weapons. Young’s athleticism alone may keep the chains moving, but that alone won’t be enough to consistently put the Titans in scoring opportunities. Inside the red zone, the Jaguars advantages are magnified, and scoring more than one touchdown may be hard for the Titans on the road.

Bears @ Chargers Play: Under 42.5 (-102) Comment: Probably the most intriguing Under on the card, as both teams game plans should prevent a lot of scoring. The Bears are full aware that Grossman has a better chance of losing a game for them than winning one. This notion holds especially true on the road against a big play defense that could pressure the quarterback as well as any team in the league. This should force the Bears to try to run as much as any team this week, and when passing, utilize a lot of three and five step drop back’s that force Grossman to get the ball out early and make him less vulnerable to the pressure. This game plan is also designed to keep the Chargers high powered offense off the field. With the offensive line the Bears have, this could keep the chains moving, but simply is not enough to move the ball at will against a talented front seven like the Chargers. Scoring opportunities should be limited for the Bears this season when playing defenses tough to run against. Bears totals that were inflated from last years Over clips were misleading due to all the special teams and defensive touchdowns that lack the sustainability despite having the best ST in the league once again this year. I still think the Bears have one of the more overrated defenses in the league, but still one of the better in not allowing the big play, and forcing teams to have to chip away against them. Tomlinson should still have a productive day on the ground, but that may be a good thing for the Under, as it should keep the clock moving. The Chargers know that they could win this game with their defense and running game. Expect Turner use the same type of passing game he did with Smith last year, that uses a lot of screen and first level passes that simply keep the defense honest and not over committed to the run. With the playmakers and big play ability the Bears have on their D, don’t expect Rivers to take a lot of chances. Expect a lot of high percentage passes attacking the first level, keeping the clock and chains moving. As good as the Chargers red zone offense is, scoring touchdowns will be much more difficult in this game compared to most. The Bears are masters at taking away the oppositions bread and butter inside the red zone, and should force someone other than Tomlinson to reach paydirt. Simply put, not enough mismatches for either offense for the total to be in the 40’s. The game plan is commensurate for the game to remain in the 30’s, and unless there is at least one defense or special teams scoring, this game should have a hard time going Over.

Lions @ Raiders Play: Raiders -2.5 (-112) Comment: Not surprised that the Lions appear to be a good go- against already, as “sexy” off season teams that lack talent are more times than not simply dead money. Although the Lions upgraded their roster with flashy talent and made bold predictions, this team has a lot of holes, and lacks strengths their counterpart’s posses. The Lions are going to go as far as their passing game takes them. Although a potentially potent one, it lacks the consistency, is heavily dependent on timing that usually is off this early in the season, and is mistake prone. More importantly they lack the offensive line to keep drives sustained, which should lead to points that are not commensurate to their yards. Going against the number run ranked pass defense of last year should only make matters worse, and force them to rely more on a very suspect running game that will rely on less than one hundred percent Jones and Bell, a running back whose productivity should see a steep decline outside of Denver’s running schemes. The Lions line also has a disadvantage inside the trenches. The Raiders line is underrated, aggressive and dangerous, and should be able to surprise this over-hyped Lions offense. Although a month from now will more than likely be a different story, McCown gives the Raiders their best chance of winning right now. However, the Lions front that lacks talent, cohesiveness and size in their back three should allow the Raiders to establish a power running game, and be the main difference in this game. It should also take pressure off of McCown and allow him to employ a conservative passing game that can offset the lack of protection he will more than likely will receive. McCown is also a better first level passer than Culpepper and has better mobility, two variables magnified when backed by this line. The Raiders offense won’t be dominant, but the Lions defense is not good enough to completely shutdown anyone. With the favorable field position the Raiders defense should provide their offense, the Raiders should be able to win this game by more than three and make that ten win prediction look even more ridiculous Bucs @ Seahawks Play: Seahawks -5.5 (-106) Comment: With all the talk surround the improved Niners, Rams and Cardinals in the NFC west, attention is no longer focused on the Seahawks, who probably remain the best team in their division and still one of the best home teams in the league. Although an overrated Alexander can not dominate like he used to when backed by a better line, the Seahawks zone schemes should do well against a front seven whose speed makes them vulnerable to over pursing gap assignments- a variable that should hold especially true early in the season with the new personal getting familiar with each other. Screen passes and first level passing games is also what is needed to take advantage of the Kiffen 2, which is essentially exactly what Holgrems variation of the WC comes down to. Lacking a deficiency on offense, the Seahawks can adjust throughout the game and magnify any mismatch in the latter stages of the game. The Bucs secondary is aging and no longer what it used to be, while the same can be said for their pass rush, which should allow Hassleback to establish the rhythm he is heavily dependent on. The Bucs have no advantage inside the 20 that makes me think the Seahawks will not be able to finish off most of their better drives with six. Garcia adds some consistency and leadership the Bucs have been lacking for years, but that wont be enough for an untalented offensive unit to keep a road game close against a tough home team. Garcia is a quarterback that needs time and more than one passing option, which is why he did some much better with the Eagles compared to the Lions and Browns that did not provide him with that combination. He now digresses once again, as the Bucs have one of the worst lines in the league, which should bring back memories of Garcia’s happy feet. The Bucs also lack the depth at receiver to allow Garcia to spread the ball around, while his best option, Galloway, is best downfield, a spot in which Garcia’s arm can not capitalize on. The Bucs running game is suspect without a line and Williams not having yet lived to his potential. The Seahawks defense is talented, and their front seven potent enough to mask any question marks their back four may have. The Bucs should have a hard time scoring enough to keep this within one possession.

Giants @ Cowboys Play: Cowboys -6 (+102) Comment: On the surface this may seem a lot to lay on a divisional rivalry game where both teams are considered above average by most. However, the disparity between the two teams have substantially increased from last year, and on a fundamental basis, the Cowboys may not have a hard time covering this spread. The Giants come into this season with a lot of holes, something that can not be said about their counterparts. More importantly, these holes will be matched right up against the Cowboys strengths, as their Giants back seven on defense simply will have a hard time contending with all the playmakers the Cowboys have on offense (even without Glenn, who I think is the Cowboys best receiving option). The Giants linebacking unit is a huge concern, and can not contain a run game as well rounded as the Cowboys without sending an eight man to the box. The Cowboys vertical threats will take advantage on an 8 man box with plays downfield. Inside the red zone is where the talent level of the Cowboys is magnified, and should be able to finish off drives. Manning continues to be valued on his last name, and without Barber and protected by one of the worst lines in the league, he should have an easy time devaluing his name. Not only will Barber’s absence be felt in the Giants running game, but also the passing game. Jacobs is a solid backup that changes the pace, but not ideal to carry the load. He also lacks the receiving options out of the backfield necessary to negate one of the better pass rushes the Cowboys have. With the advantage the Cowboys front seven has over the Giants anemic pass blocking, Shockey will once again be forced into more blocking roles, and not be able to take advantage of Williams pass coverage. Manning will have to get the ball out early, which is counterproductive with the Giants receivers and Gilbrides offensive schemes. Until the Giants prove they can employ damage control, I am hesitant into thinking they could keep games close against top level competition.

Cardinals @ Niners Play: Niners -3.5 Comment: There is probably not another team in the league that has had more people jump on their bandwagon than the Niners have this off season. Usually these types of teams make for a dangerous team to back, as the actual off season improvements are not as much as what is perceived by the public. That said, there is no denying that the Niners are drastically improved, have a favorable fundamental match up against the Cardinals, and do actually appear to possess value in tonight’s game due to the high expectations the public has on the Cardinals as well. Both teams have playmakers and high profile players, but it is the Niners who possess more talent in the less profiled positions and have the counterparts to better contend with the opposition’s playmakers. Gore is no longer the underrated back he was last year, but is still one of the better backs in the league, and is complimented by a solid run blocking line that should win the battle in the trenches against an Achilles heal for the Cardinals. The Niners have a huge edge with the left side run, and showed the ability to still run effectively against stacked boxes last year. This decisive edge should set the tempo of this game, avoid a shootout in which the Cardinals are better suited for, keep Cardinals potent offense off the field, and keep the pressure off of Smith and allow him to work within his means. Smith is a system quarterback that works much better when the run is working effectively, which is no surprise as he is at his best working with the play action and first level passing game that is commensurate to a solid run game. Davis came into his own late last season, and could pick apart the middle of the field if the Cardinals elect to constantly stack the box with Wilson. The additions of Jackson, Jacobs and Lelie finally solidify depth at the receiver spot in which they have been lacking for a few years now, and also should take advantage of the lack of depth the Cardinals have in their secondary. Expect a balanced attack from the Niners, as they pose match up problems on the ground and through the air against a suspect Cardinals defense. The Red Zone was the Niners Achilles heal last year, as teams were able to stack the box and force Smith to pass. The addition of veteran receivers should shore up this deficiency as well. The Niners also improved a lot on defense during the off season. The addition of Clements was vital playing in the NFC West against a lot of quality number one receivers. He has the ability to shutdown any receiver in the league, and should have no problem making one of the top tier Cardinals receivers not much of a factor. Harris is also an above average corner, which makes the Cardinals biggest asset, their receivers much less of a factor in this game. The Niners biggest weakness on defense is their line, something that may not be exploited, as it matches up against the Cardinals biggest weakness, their offensive line. James has been a bust in Arizona, while the Cardinals did not improve their line enough to make me feel that James will not be much of a factor once again this season. Without the major mismatch the Cardinals usually have with their receivers, they should have a hard time moving the chains in this game. Both teams improved from last season, and should both contend for the division title. But it is the Niners who not only have become a more balanced team, but a team that matches up much better against their opponent tonight. Winning by more than a field goal is no longer a stretch for a Niners team.

Bills @ Steelers Play: Steelers -10 Comment: I am not a big fan of laying such points in pro football, but the Steelers actually appear to be undervalued in today’s game. Don’t let last weeks one point loss fool you. The Bills were thoroughly dominated by a Broncos team that looked as rusty as can be, and have never been as potent on the road. Sunday will be a much more difficult match up for a Bills club who are coming into this game with potential emotional distractions of a heart breaking loss against the Broncos and more importantly the injury to Everett. Despite the Broncos offense showing rust and employing a suspect game plan, they were able to move the ball at will against a Bills defense that came into the game battling some injuries and free agency losses, and now have to deal with another key injury to Simpson. Expect the Bills defense to have even more problems this week against a Steelers offense that responded well to their new coordinators game plan. The Bills lacking depth in their secondary is the last thing they want against a Steelers team that used more multiple receiver sets than any other team last week. Expect Ben to put forth another solid week where he will find match up problems that can lead to big plays. Not only does Holmes and Ward provide match up problems to the suspect Bills starting corners, but the multiple receiver sets is where the Steelers have the biggest advantage in the passing game. The Bills lack size on defense, especially when forced to employ the Cover 2 and nickel situations the Steelers formations will force them into. This does not bode well against the Steelers power running game and physicality in the trenches that should dominate the finesse style the Bills line provides. Expect a well balanced attack from the Steelers offense, as they possess match up problems for the Bills on the ground and through the air. Only this week, the Bills being outmatched on defense should lead to a lot more points allowed. With all the talk of the Steelers/Browns game circulating around the Steelers offense and the lack thereof from the Browns offense, the Steelers defense did not get the credit they deserved. The Steelers defense has always been one of the best against sub par offenses, as they proved it again last week, and have a good chance of doing such again this week. Lynch looked good last week, but his running style is dependent on miss tackles, something that will be hard to come by against a top tier tackling team like the Steelers. Expect the Steelers to constantly stack the box early with Palamula, magnify the advantage they already possess against the Bills run game, thus forcing Losman to beat them with his arm. Losman has never been as efficient on the road, and has always been more prone to mistakes when not backed by an effective run game or when facing a heavy dose of blitzing in which he is likely to face on Sunday. With a lack of a second receiving option and time in the pocket, expect the Steelers to make another young quarterback look really bad this week. Without special teams help, the Bills offense may have problems getting into double digits. The Bills may use Everett’s injury as a motivation, but more likely, the Bills are emotionally drained to get up to play a top tier team like the Steelers. Emotions alone may allow them to keep this game close early, but once separation occurs, the Steelers may be able to pile it on. Falcons @ Jaguars Play: Jaguars -10 Comment: This game consists of two teams putting forth horrible performances on opening day. The only difference was the notion that the Falcons horrible performance was due to being one of the worst teams in football, while the Jaguars performance was more of an anomaly, as they were dominated in two faucets of the game in which they held the biggest advantages in against the Titans. Expect a much better effort from the Jaguars this week, while the Falcons continue to search for their identity. Don’t let last week fool you. The Jaguars have one of the best running games in the league. Their offensive line is physical and is backed by what might be the best running back combo in the league. This does not bode well for a Falcons defense that came into the season with one of the worst run defenses in the league, were thoroughly dominated by the Vikings run game despite a lack of passing game, and now suffered key injuries to Jackson and Coleman, making their run defense at that much more of a disadvantage. The Jaguars will be determined the game plan that they didn’t employ last week, which will not only allow them to exploit the biggest mismatch in the game, but also make Garrard’s like much easier. The lack of pass defense from the Falcons allowed Jackson to perform better than expected. Despite facing another sub par passing game, it is a passing game that is more effective than last week’s opponent, and feeds off the play action much more effectively. With the Falcons concentrated on the run, the Jaguars big receivers should get a lot of one on one situations and shots downfield (scored a 50 yard touchdown last week). When dealing with big favorites, one wants a dominant passing attack. But the truth of the matter is that the more the Jaguars run, the better chance they have of putting up a lot of points needed to cover big spreads. The huge advantage in the trenches should allow them to do such. The Falcons offense is even worse than their defense. Despite facing a sub par pass defense last week, the Falcons were unable to reach the end zone. Things will only get more difficult for their anemic offense this week, facing an elite defense that is determined to avenge their embarrassing effort last week. The Titans were able to move the ball effectively by running right up the middle against the best tackle combination in the AFC. This was more than an anomaly than something one can expect to see again. Either way, the Falcons lack the power running game to attack the A gap, and should once again rely on Harrington’s arm to move the chains. Although Harrington completed a high rate of his attempts, it was a passing game not terribly productive and prone to mistakes. Having a group of finesse receivers is the last thing you want against a physical Jaguars secondary that can exploit this characteristic. The Falcons are simply outmatched in both offensive faucets to keep this game close. Expect the Jaguars to come out with a chip on their shoulder and make quick work of this Falcons team. The Falcons lack of scoring quickly makes a double digit spread not as intimidating.

Colts @ Titans Play: Over 45.5 Comment: With both games between the 2 teams average just 32 points last season, it is no surprise that there is value on the Over this season. There is really no fundamental reason to why both games were low scoring, and the Over appears to be a good hedge to the Titans bet, as their defenses matching up against the Colts offense is my biggest concern. I don’t expect the Titans to keep the Colts offense down in the same manner they did last year. Their secondary has gotten worse since that time, while the Colts have more receiving threats compared to those games. The Titans are as vulnerable as any other secondary in the AFC in allowing second and third level passing, and even an anemic second and third level passing game of the Jaguars were able to take advantage of such a deficiency last week. Expect Manning to test downfield early and often, as he will try to turn this game into a shootout, and force the Titans to keep up through the air and not on the ground. For the most part, he should be successful accomplishing this task. Not only has value been created on the Over due to last year’s scores, but because of the Colts overachieving defense as well. Although it does truly appear improved, it is no where nearly as good as what they have showcased the last few games. Although they have shutdown more potent offenses than the one they will face Sunday, the Titans provide match up problem other teams were unable to give the Colts. Expect Young’s scrambling ability and the interior running game that worked so well last week to the chains moving and provide the Titans scoring opportunities. Usually a heavy dose of running is not ideal for Overs, but this notion does not hold true in Colts games. Niners @ Rams Play: Niners +3.5 Comment: Although the Niners did not play as well as I expected offensively last week, their defense did surpass my high expectations I had for them, which is a huge plus going up against a dangerous passing game in the Rams. The combination of Clements and Harris is one of the best in the league, while Spencer is one of the best nickels as well. This allowed them to shutdown the top tier receiving group the Cardinals brought to the game, and is a huge asset as well against another deep NFC West receiving group the Rams possess. Last year, the Rams passing game struggled greatly when they were dealt a series of injuries to their offensive line, as their passing game is highly dependent on timing. Already dealt a season ending injury to their best offensive lineman coupled with the injury to Bennett that should limit his effectiveness in this game, and the Rams offense is once again forced in the role of having to overcome key injuries in order to be able to perform up to expectations. Although the Rams hold the running advantage over a Niners defense that struggled containing James last week, it is the Rams passing game that has won the Rams their games in past years. The Niners offense turned out to be a major disappointment in week one. They were unable to get Gore going (thanks to predominantly running behind the right side rather than the left) and employed an archaic passing game plan that did nothing until the last drive of the game. That said, their offense is better than what they showed in week one, and have a good opportunity to show such against a Rams defense that is highly vulnerable to the Niners style of offense. The Rams have always been vulnerable trying to stop the run. They did nothing in the off season to shore up this weakness, and it showed last week, allowing nearly 200 yards to an anemic Panthers running game. Things will only get harder for the Rams as they face a more potent running game this week that they struggled containing last year. Gore is one of the best backs in after contact yards, while the Rams are one of the worst tackling teams in the league, which should only magnify the advantage the Niners have on the ground. One of the reasons why the Niners passing game faltered last week is in large part due to their running game underachieving. With Gore expecting to be much more of a factor this week, Smith will be able to work under his element and feed of the play action that wasn’t used. He will also have more opportunities to take shots downfield while facing sub par pass rush. This game appears to be evenly matched. The Rams have the better passing offense, while the Niners have the better running game. However, the Niners have the ideal pass defense to curtail this Rams asset, making both teams passing game about equal, while th Rams lack of run defense magnifies the advantage the Niners have on the ground. The Niners should run their way into a potential victory or a loss that keeps them within three.

Niners @ Rams Play: Over 43.5 Comment: Rarely do you see four faucets of the game that the offense holds the advantage in backed by a total this low, but this appears to be the case in this game. Despite the improved pass defense of the Niners, the Rams passing game is simply to hard to shutdown at home, and the best chance a defense has of doing such is via the pass rush not the secondary. This is the difference between the Panthers defense that was able to pressure the quarterback, and the Niners defense that relies on dominant coverage to shutdown a passing game. Mentioned last week, my biggest concern with the Niners is their defensive line and inability to stop an opponents running game. I thought they were able to mask this deficiency against a sub par running game of the Cardinals- but I was wrong. Things will only get more difficult for the Niners this week against a potent Rams run game that should provide balance to their offense and allow them to reach the 20’s. The Niners offense is not nearly as bad as what they showed in week 1. When they run the ball, they will score points in bunches. Facing one of the worst run defenses in the league provides the Niners the second biggest running edge in week 2 (second to the Jaguars edge of the Falcons front). Not only will this allow them to move the ball effectively on the ground, but the Niners passing game is highly dependent on the run as well. Expect Smith to feed off this run game and put forth a better effort this week. Also expect more shots downfield, which should make drives less demanding on the clock. Packers @ Giants Play: Packers +1.5 Comment: Usually high profile quarterback injuries are more than quantified into the line, but in this game, I feel the three key injuries to the Giants is not fully reflected by putting the Packers as underdogs. Lorezen is not one of the more adequate backups in the league, and lacks the ideal experience to counter a fast, aggressive, and underrated defense the Packers will showcase on Sunday. Ideally, the Giants would like to establish an effective running game to take the pressure off of Lorezen and limit his responsibility. Going into the season, the Giants running game was a huge question mark. Their offensive line has a lot of weaknesses that should curtail the consistency of a running game. Jacobs was looked upon as a change of pace back not ideal to carry the workload. Their running game has just gotten worse as the injury to Jacobs and Manning leaves a sub par running back to carry the workload, and also allows the Packers to stack the box on a consistent basis to make an unproven Lorenzen beat them with his arm. The Packers also have one of the most underrated secondary’s in the league to counter the depth the Giants have at the receiver spot. The Giants heavily depended on Burress last week, who should have a much harder time getting opened against a physical corner he does not match up well against rather than an inexperienced backup he dominated last Sunday. Simply put, the key injuries to the Giants offense should really hinder both the Giants running game and passing game, while also making them more prone to turnovers against an aggressive Packers defense. The Packers offense is one of the worst in the league, but should have a better time moving the ball this week against an anemic Giants defense. The Giants defense performed as poorly as any other defense in the league last week, as they were unable to stop both the run and the pass of the Cowboys. Strahan proved not to be in game shape and was actually a liability on the field. The injury to Umenyiora leaves the Giants with two sub par ends, and increases the likelihood that an anemic Packers run game can actually establish something this week. The Giants are also vulnerable to the pass, as proved to be the case last week. They gave Romo time in the pocket all game, which bodes well for the Packers chances, as Farve is one of the more vulnerable quarterbacks in the league when under pressure. The Giants also showcased their weakness in their coverage by having to play a lot of zone and allowing their opponents to establish a first level passing game. This is also a huge plus for Farve, as he is at his best when getting the ball out early. The Packers offense is not a potent one, and will rarely have breakout weeks. But if there was going to be one, don’t be surprised if it happens Sunday against an injured and anemic Giants defense. The Giants have too many issues and holes to warrant being a favorite. The Packers underrated defense should give the backups on the Giants problems, while their offense scores enough to pull off a road victory. Vikings @ Lions Play: Vikings +3 Comment: I will be the first to admit that the Lions passing game outperformed my expectations last week, and still may be better than what I give them credit for. Having said that, I still find the Lions to be an overvalued “public” team once again this week. Despite the Lions matching up their biggest strength against one of the concerns of the Vikings (their pass defense), the Vikings approach to pass defense is what you want against a mistake prone quarterback like Kitna. The Vikings faced a similar approach last week when dealing with a high percentage short passing game of the Falcons. Although they allowed Harrington to move the ball downfield by completing a high rate of his passes, his propensity to make costly mistakes was the difference in the game, as the Vikings returned two interceptions for touchdowns. This bend-don’t break philosophy is ideal against Kitna and the Lions style of passing attack, as he is one of the better quarterbacks in the league at moving the ball downfield and having nothing to show for it because of mistakes at the tail end of drives. With the Lions lack of running game going up against a dominant run defense in the Vikings, the Vikings can better concentrate in defending the pass. Don’t expect the Lions to be as efficient as they were last week. The Lions defense was unable to take advantage of facing one of the most anemic offenses in the league last week, as the Raiders offense moved the ball at will against them in the second half. Sunday they will get another chance of facing an inferior offense, but this offense actually has faucets that can attack the Lions defense. The Lions defensive front seven is vulnerable to power running attacks, something that they will have to deal with on Sunday. Although the Vikings may be without their starting running back, it is their offensive line that is the catalyst to their underrated running game, while Peterson has already proven to be more than adequate to fill the job. The Lions inability to stop the run should allow pressure to be taken off of Jackson, which is key in a road game. If McCown was able to throw for over 300 yards against a Lions secondary, while backed by a solid run game, Jackson should be able to do enough to keep the Vikings offense two dimensional and effective. The Lions came into the season as a “sexy” team prone to inflated lines. Winning on the road as an underdog will only enhance such. In a game with two sub par teams, I will take the underdog that possesses the better running game and has the better defense.

Cowboys @ Dolphins Play: Under 40.5 Comment: Being involved in a game that consisted of 80 points will certainly inflate a total the following week, and this game is no different. Truth of the matter is that the Cowboys offense is not as good as what was shown last week, while their defense is not nearly as bad. Instead of facing Manning and Burress, the Cowboys pass defense will now be up against Green and Chambers, a combination not nearly as potent. The Cowboys will also more than likely have the return of their best cover corner to compliment Henry, and make the Cowboys secondary much less prone to the passing game. The Dolphins best chance of winning this game is to turn this game into a slugfest rather than a shootout they are not equipped in contending in against the Cowboys. Expect them to employ a power running game that will allow Green to work in more manageable situations. The Cowboys have a good enough run defense to curtail the effectiveness of the running game, but the injury to Furgenson will make them more susceptible to keeping drives sustained. The Dolphins lack the ideal third level passing game that the Cowboys have been vulnerable against for over a year now. Expect a more conservative approach out of the Dolphins passing game that is more clock demanding and less prone to take advantage of the Cowboys weaknesses. The bottom line is to expect a better effort out of the Cowboys defense- and they face the ideal offense to make a statement. The Dolphins offense will have a hard time finding the end zone all year, and this game should be no different. Things will not be nearly as easy for the Cowboys offense this week, as they are now up against one of the best and underrated defenses in the league. The Dolphins pass rush will not allow Romo to have all the time in the world in the pocket as he did last week, while they will not be able to turn short slant passes into 40 yard touchdowns like they did twice last week. The Cowboys will also be less likely to be able to establish a running game that makes their passing game that much more effective this week. The Cowboys entered the season with a suspect offensive line, but was able to mask it last week against a hapless defensive line of the Giants. Facing one of the best front sevens in the league should expose this weakness of the Cowboys, and make their offensive much less efficient. The injury to Glenn was also masked last week with the horrific play of the Giants secondary. In reality, Glenn’s injury is huge, takes away Romo’s favorite third down receiver, and allows teams to better concentrate on Owens. Despite having several red zone threats, the Cowboys effectiveness in the red zone diminishes substantially with Romo carrying the workload. This will more than likely be the case with the Dolphins possessing the decisive edge in the trenches. Here is a case of books over adjusting to one week. Expect a better effort from the Cowboys defense as they face a hapless offense not suited to take advantage of their weaknesses. Expect the Cowboys question marks on offense to be exposed as well against one of the more underrated defenses in the league. These key variables should keep this game under 40 points. Bengals @ Browns Play: Over 41 Comment: This Over is mainly intriguing due to the notion that the Bengals have a good shot of covering it on their own. In both games last year, the Bengals put up at least 30 points, while averaging nearly 450 yards against the Browns defense, and there appears to be no signs of evidence that things should be different in this game. The Browns secondary appeared overmatched last week against a passing game that had a lot of question marks coming into the season. Although Bodden has done a good job against Johnson in the past, there lacks a fundamental edge to think this past success is sustainable. The Steelers also found another weak spot in the Browns secondary last week, as the rookie Wright looked vulnerable in coverage. The Bengals simply have too many weapons for a suspect secondary to consistently contain, and lack a pass rush to make it more difficult on Palmer. The most intriguing part about when the Bengals have a decisive edge in their passing game is that the bigger the edge, the more shots they take downfield. Palmer is at his best as a third level quarterback, thus allowing the Bengals to score quickly and not demand a lot of time off the clock. The Bengals also have the edge on the ground, but are not the type of team to employ a power running attack when they could pass at will. Expect a second straight week in which the Browns will allow 30 plus points to a division opponent. Ideally the Browns would like to employ a heavy dose of running, but if the Bengals advantages on offense leads to a lot of points early like it should, the Browns will once again be forced to abandon the running game early and not be able to put together drives that take a lot of time off the clock. Anderson is a better Over quarterback when compared to Frye, as he has a stronger arm and also more prone to mistakes that could lead to defensive scores. The Bengals are one of the best teams in the league in creating turnovers, something that could actually help the Over. The Browns passing attack is not designed to chip away at the field, rather move the ball in chunks, also an advantage for an Over player. The only edge they do have on offense is that they could create match up problems downfield for the Bengals with Winslow and Edwards. I am not expecting a lot out of the Browns offense, but they should perform better than they did last week. Expect more productive drives, but drives that are not clock demanding. In my opinion, they should score enough to put the Over above the mark.

Seahawks @ Cardinals Play: Over 42.5 Comment: It appears that performances from the Cardinals offense and the Seahawks defense in week 1 may have created value on the Over in this game. The Cardinals offense was shutdown most of the game against the Niners, which was not much of a surprise, as their offense goes as far as their passing game takes them (and were up against one of the best three corner combinations in the league). The Seahawks defense looked much better than they actually are, as facing the Bucs will make that be the case more times than not. Expect the Seahawks secondary to have a much harder time containing the talent the Cardinals possess at the receiver spot, which should allow the Cardinals to work within their means much better this week. The Seahawks secondary has some playmakers in it, but their overaggressive tendencies and vulnerability to the deep play is just not ideal against the Cardinals. Despite having some success on the ground against the Niners, I do feel that the Cardinals should have a hard time getting things going on the ground this week. However, the points and a solid running game is not as correlated to the Cardinals offense as it is with most teams. The Seahawks defense does not play with the same intensity on the road. The Seahawks had success twice last year against the Cardinals defense, which was not a surprise, as they match up well against them. The Cardinals simply lack a strength on defense to consistently deal with well balanced offenses like the one they will have to face Sunday. Although the Seahawks started out rusty last week, in the second half they were able to pick up momentum and showcase their talent. Unlike the Cardinals, the Seawhawks offense is heavily correlated to the success of their ground game. Although the Cardinals were able to shutdown Gore better than most expected, they did that in large part by being able to constantly stack the box with Wilson thanks to the lack of fear with Smith’s arm. Expect them to not have the same luxury this week against Hassleback, which does not bode well for a Cardinals front seven that should be overmatched by the Seahawks running game. The Seahawks passing game also holds a distinct advantage in this match up. The Cardinals lack ideal depth in their secondary to contend with a team that could spread the ball around the field as well as the Seahawks, who had seven men catch a ball last week. Also, their proneness to get beat deep forces them into more zone coverage situations not ideal against a WC offense that is heavily dependent on timing, first level passes and vulnerable against press coverage. The advantages on the ground and in the air should allow the Seahawks to put together a few good drives. Their red zone efficiency should allow them to make the most of them. Both teams should reach the 20 mark, while the drop in the ask for the Over has made it low enough to warrant a play in my opinion. Chargers @ Patriots Play: Chargers +3.5 Comment: In my opinion, the Patriots may slightly be the better team. This makes a 3.5 spread no surprise, and usually would make a 3.5 spread not carry any value on either side in such a situation. However, football is about match ups and also contains a higher rate of intangibles effecting the outcome of the game compared to most sports, two faucets that has created value on the Chargers. The biggest edge in this game has to go to the Chargers running game against the Patriots defense, who should finally feel the poignancy of the absence of Seymour and Harrison. Although Tomlinson does not appear to be at full speed, expect a better effort out of him this week. The Patriots lack the ideal bulk up front to be able to stop a power running game lead by a massive line for four quarters without two key players in their run defense. Tomlinson will also be playing with a chip on his shoulder, which is the last thing you want when playing against the best player in football. Although the Chargers do not have the advantage in the air against the Patriots pass defense, they will not have to rely much on Rivers to keep them in the game. Fortunately, the Patriots have now become most vulnerable in defending athletic tight ends, and may face the best in Gates. The Chargers could get away with a lot of dump off passes to their running backs and tight ends, and not allow the complex looks to lead to a lot of errors other teams who are more dependent on their receivers are prone too. Although the Patriots have a much improved offense and now one of the best in football, I just don’t see enough of an edge to make me think they win by more than a field goal. The Chargers elite pass rush will not allow Brady to have all day in the pocket like last week, and employ a dangerous third level passing game as well as he did. The Chargers elite run defense should also have no problem limiting the productivity of the Patriots run game. Intangibles also favor the Chargers. The Chargers have been waiting to play this game ever since their emotional loss to the Patriots in last years playoffs. Although the Patriots are the last team to allow distractions to affect them off the field, I see this weeks spy issue more of a detriment than a potential motivational aspect. Chargers @ Patriots Play: Under 46 Comment: Probably my favorite play this week is the Under in this game. Rarely will you see a game that consists of two top five defenses be accompanied by a total this high, especially this early in the season when defenses are more prone to being ahead of the offenses. The Chargers know their best chance of winning is to run as much as possible. Although they possess the best running game in football, the fact Tomlinson does not appear to be at his best right now coupled with facing one of the better run defenses in the league leads me to believe they will not be nearly as dominant on the ground as they are in most games. However, they should be better than last week and be able to grind out yards and use up a lot of clock. Don’t expect them to take a lot of chances in the air, and use the passing game to merely keep the Patriots defense off balance. Expect a conservative passing game that employs a lot of screens and first level passes that keeps the clock and chains moving, but does not move the ball in chunks. The Patriots offense looked as dangerous as any in the league last week. However, this was in large part thanks to their offensive lines ability to give Brady all the time he needed to throw downfield. It would be hard to imagine Brady having the same luxury this week against the best pass rush in football, which should force Brady to get the ball out earlier and use a lot shorter passes that prevent quick scoring drives. Also not suitable against this Chargers defense is becoming pass happy. The Patriots know they will have to use a heavy dose of running throughout the game no matter the ineffectiveness. This total is simply too high for a game containing two elite defenses. I don’t see both teams reaching the 20’s, which should make this high number hard to surpass.

Sides Bears -2.5 I rarely bet on the Bears, but will do so this week, as this marks the fourth straight week in which I am going against the Lions. The Bears have finally become out of favor in the market place, dropping off a key number. That is where I will step in. The Bears have gotten a significant upgrade in the quarterback spot by finally getting Grossman out. Griese can better manage the game and is less vulnerable to the mistakes that prevent the Bears from employing their style of game. The Bears are heavily dependent on the run game in order to win games. There two losses this season were against two of the better run defenses in the league. The Lions are quite the contrary. Expect a more efficient run game and a more conservative passing game to lead to a more productive offensive performance from the Bears this week. On defense, the Bears are battling some injuries, and on the surface may appear overmatched by this aggressive Lions offense. However, it is the smash mouth offense that this defense more vulnerable to, as their run defense has suffered more because of the injuries. The Lions will more than likely not capitalize on such. The Lions depth at receiver should allow them to move the ball well against an injured secondary. But the Bears bend-don’t break philosophy and ability to create turnovers is the perfect antidote for this one dimensional offense. Expect the Lions yards to be not commensurate to their points. The Bears should bounce back from their embarrassing prime time loss, and start Griese off with a win. Vikings +1.5 It is hard to imagine the Packers not being accompanied by an inflated price tag, as their backing must be at an all time high after another upset win and solid performance from Farve. Although this team is truly one of the better ones in the NFC (mostly because of their defense, and not Farve), I am not sure they warrant such respect just yet by books. Farve is playing well, but I question the sustainability of his performance. Playing in an environment that he has struggled in throughout his career and being backed by a completely overmatched run game that should force him into a one dimensional role should make his vulnerable to regression. He is still vulnerable to mistakes, and the Vikings defense has quietly been one of the best at creating them over the last couple of years. The Packers defense is solid, but lack of size makes them vulnerable against a smash mouth running game, especially late in the game. Holcomb adds veteran leadership that can better counter stacked boxes than Jackson. It is not often that you get a home team that has the better running game and better defense (slightly better) getting points. Rarely do I pass up such scenarios. Falcons +2.5 If this game were played on opening day, the Falcons would more than likely be 3 points favorites. If this game were played on opening day and the Texans were without Johnson and Green, the line may have reached 6. Although the Texans have played better than expected, while the Falcons have played as poorly as critics expected, it is simply not enough to warrant this much shift in the line. Schaub has been solid in all three starts, but playing on the road without his two best receivers, his starting center, and more than likely his starting running back puts him in a situation he might not be ready to handle. Even the Falcons defense can handle a situation like this. The Falcons offense has been inconsistent in all three games. But Harrington is coming off a decent week while their offense should get better throughout the season. If the Falcons are going to win a game any time soon, it will be this one. I will go against an in-favor (and injured) road team that is not very good while getting points. Panthers -2.5 The Bucs have played better than expected so far year to date, but books may be jumping the gun with their opening line. The value of their blowout win against the Saints has depreciated after the Titans showed last week it doesn’t take much to bet them but double digits. Their win last week appears impressive on the surface, but was more of a product of the injured and struggling Rams beating themselves. Sunday will be their second test this season, and will probably result in the same fashion as their first one against the Seahawks. Garcia has managed this team well, but should be forced into a role not ideal for him this week. The Bucs running game should be overmatched, forcing Garcia into a more one dimensional role against a good pass rush- very similar to what happened in Seattle. Carr is not much of a downgrade, and should be motivated to put in a solid performance. An improved running game, and a better receiving group and offensive line than he has been used to over the years should allow him to accomplish such. The Bucs are not as good as what they have shown, as they have played the role of opportunist, a role not effective when playing in Carolina. The Bucs will be forced to win (and not allow their opponent to beat themselves). Carolina is too good at home to do such. Broncos +10 It is not often that you get a better running game, a better defense, and double digit points, but I will take this almost every time. The Broncos may be lucky to be 2 and 1, but also to good to lose by a lot of points. Expect their running game to keep the Colts offense off the field, while their passing game may surprise the Colts and allow them to pull off an upset. Everyone thinks the Colts defense has turned the corner, as three straight solid games have followed their playoff run. But this will be their first test against a good offense (the Saints can not be construed as such at this point and time). Still being skeptical of their defense, I think they may have their hands full. The Broncos pass defense is one of the best in football, as their starting cornerback tandem is exactly what you want going against Harrison and Wayne. Expect them to do enough to keep this game in reach.

Totals Ravens/Browns Under 40 The Browns high scoring games of late have pushed this total up to where it doesn’t belong- in the 40’s. Fundamental reasoning says a much lower scoring game. Anderson has added a spark to their passing game, but his propensity for making mistakes should force the Browns to utilize a more conservative game plan against a turnover machine defense. Expect the Browns to try to establish a run game that prevents the Ravens from teeing off on Anderson. Expect their passing game plan to force Anderson to get the ball out early. The Ravens defense should be motivated to fix their second half meltdown against the pass last week. They have the talent to achieve such. The Ravens are a run oriented offense that likes to eat up clock when their game plan is working. The Browns struggles against the run should allow them to accomplish such a task. Expect effective, but time demanding drives throughout the game from the Ravens offense. If this AFC smash mouth style game was played in week 1, the total would be set around 34. Although an upward shift may be warranted, setting it at 40 is not. Raiders/Dolphins Under 41 Hard to justify a line this high when both teams’ defenses hold a decisive edge against their opponent’s offense. Value has been created partially thanks to both teams scoring in the 20’s in their last game, but the means in which it was accomplished lacks sustainability this week. The Raiders have relied heavily on their run game, and it has worked out well for them so far. However, against the Dolphins, this trend should come to an end. The Dolphins defense has underachieved so far this year. However, their talent level and playing with a chip on their shoulder (Cullpepper) makes than an intriguing defense this week for an Under play. Expect them to know how to defend Culpeeper lack of familiarity with a playbook, and the Raiders to counter with conservative play. The Dolphins offense put up 28 last week in large part to Green’s 300 plus yards passing. However, Green has been inconsistent all season, and age has made him one of the worst starters in the league at this point in his career. The Raiders pass defense is one of the most underrated, and yet to hit stride. Now is a perfect time. The Dolphins best chance of winning is to rely more on the run, and keep Green within his means. Bucs/Panthers Under 40 I also like the Under in this match. Carr’s first start with this team should only solidify his reliance on the first level passing game that has always been a clock demanding style for him. It should also solidify the Panthers heavy reliance on their power running game that is also clock demanding. Kiffen has his defense playing well, and should do enough this week to make the Panthers earn their points. Touchdowns may be hard to come by with Barber matched up against their best touchdown threat. I am not sold on the Bucs offense, and their recent surge has been lead by facing two sub par run defenses. The Panthers just don’t fall into that category, and the Bucs will more than likely be unable to counter. Garcia manages his team well, but that does not necessarily lead to points, rather avoidance of mistakes. Expect regression this week from the Bucs offense. Chiefs/Chargers Over 38 There is no denying that the Chargers offense is in a slump. However, playing the Bears defense, the Packers defense, and the Patriots defense (all three are top ten caliber) will certainly curtail an offenses productivity. Their talent level allows them to bounce back an time, and has a perfect opportunity for such this week against a bottom ten defense. Their advantage in the air and on the ground give them a good chance of nearly covering this one on their own. The Chiefs offense has been horrible, and their best chance of getting things on track is via the ground game. However, that is not the case this week against an elite run defense. The Chiefs will have to follow suit of the Patriots and Packers if they want to hang in this game, and pass as much as possible. If that doesn’t hold true, they will more than likely be forced into a one dimensional passing game anyways with the Chargers dominance on offense.

Sides Titans -3.5 Sunday appears to be an ideal time to get back on the Titans, as they clearly have become out of favor after being dominated in two straight road games. With the return of their best player, the Titans are primed for a bounce back game, and are coming with a very generous price tag. Although a lot of the recent defensive decline had to do with a bit of expectations being high, Haynesworth has clearly proved his worth to the Titans defense, who are one of the better units in the league with him anchoring the middle. After facing two of the worst defenses in the league following their bye week, the Texans mediocre and overrated offense is now vulnerable to a letdown against a defense that holds a fundamental advantage in each facet of the game. Haynesworth adds a lot of value to the Titans pass defense, as his interior pressure disrupts the passing game from the onset, and allows the Titans edge rusher to free up. Expect the Texans battered line to have a constant disadvantage, and not allow the Schaab to have the ideal time to attack the second and third level of the defense in which he is at his best attacking and where the Titans defense is most vulnerable. The more one dimensional an offense becomes against the Titans, the less effective they become. The Texans anemic running game should have trouble getting anything going, and should not be successful in taking the pressure off of Schaab. It’s hard to find where the Texans success comes on this week. The Titans offense has been struggling, but their recent struggles may be a value creator, as it had to do a lot with falling behind early in their last two games and forced to abandon their running game that they are heavily dependent on. Expect their offensive game plan to return to their comfort zone, as the Texans run defense has struggled containing opposing running games. The Titans had no problem establishing an effective running game the first time they met, and should be successful again this week, allowing Young to work with a lot more manageable passing situations. The Texans anemic pass defense has become more vulnerable with the absence of their best cover corner, and their lack of depth in the secondary proved to be vital last week against another team that could spread the ball around in the air. With the running game being more effective this week, Young should be better capable of exploiting the Texans secondary weaknesses, allowing the Titans to productivity on the ground and in the air. In my opinion, the best value in week 13 lies with the out of favor Titans, who should bounce back well and win comfortably. Dolphins -1 Not many people are willing to bet on a 0-11 team as a favorite, but this is a unique situation in which I am willing to do so, as the Dolphins are not a typical team searching for their first win this late in the season. In fact, they are not far worse than their counterparts, and are currently playing better football right now. They are also a much hungrier team at this point of the season, especially knowing full well this is their best chance to avoid the dreaded defeated season- an intangible vital in a game this late in the season consisting of two teams with nothing else to play for. Fundamentally speaking, there doesn’t exist much to favor the Jets either. The Dolphins defense has been getting progressively better (even not factoring in last weeks game that was played on a non-competitive field). They have a good chance of continuing their upward trend against an anemic Jets offense that doesn’t run or pass well. Clemens looked rattled last week and doesn’t appear to be as comfortable on the road. Expect the Dolphins to feed off the Cowboys blueprint with some success. In my opinion, the Dolphins offense may be a bit underrated and has some upside potential. Their offensive line has done well in run blocking situations, and should open up holes for whoever is installed at running back. The Jets have one of the worst run defenses in football, allowing the Dolphins run game to hold the largest fundamental edge in this game. This edge should also get progressively better as the game goes on, as the Dolphins offense has been gets better each quarter, while the Jets defense gets worse. It should also take pressure off of Beck, whose ability may be underestimated due to his first two tough tasks. Expect him to look better this time around. With fundamentals and intangibles both favoring the Dolphins, I would be a bit surprised to see them not get win number one. Giants -1 It didn’t take long for the Bears to become overvalued again, as a win in a game in which they were thoroughly dominated at home in allowed this overrated team to dupe public perception on them again. Combine this with the Giants coming off their worst game of the season, and it is no surprise there is some good value on the Giants this week. Expect Manning to bounce back well this week facing what might be the most overrated defense in the league. Their continued struggles defending the pass should allow a Giants team with many passing options to exploit this Bears weakness. The return of Jacobs could not have come at a better time, as Manning is much more effective with a complimentary running game, while his running style could take advantage of the Bears lack of size up front and their propensity to get worn down by power running games. This balanced attack should allow the Giants struggling offense to get back on track and quite their critics for the time being. Take away Hester’s two touchdowns and we would be hearing once again this week how bad Grossman is and how anemic their offense is. With the Giants more than likely unwilling to give Hester a chance, the Bears will be forced to rely on Grossman to win a game. This is not an ideal match up for him, as the Giants are the best team in the league in pressuring the quarterback and forcing him into mistakes- a variable that should be magnified by Grossman’s propensity for mistakes and the Bears struggling line in pass protection. The injury to Benson makes an anemic running game that much worse off. It also magnifies the biggest fundamental edge in the game, the Giants run defense against the Bears running game, thus putting that much more pressure on Grossman. Expect the Bears offense to once again struggle, Hester not given a chance to bail them out, and the Giants offense to bounce back decently- leading to a Giants win.

Totals Texans/Titans Under 43 Along with the value on the Titans, I see some value on the Under in their game as well. As mentioned in my Titans pick, their defense should substantially improve with the return of Haynesworth and Harper. Both players should shore up their recent struggles in the teams pass defense, and should make life difficult for Schaab, who has faced just two decent pass defenses all season. The Texans offense is overrated, and could capitalize against a tired and poor defense in Cleveland. Breaking the 17 points barrier has been done only once for this overrated offense on the road this season, and I don’t expect it to happen this week either. The Titans winning has a direct fundamental correlation with lower scoring games, as their success is predominantly a product of their defense, but it is complimented by a heavy dose of running. Expect the Titans offensive game plan to return to the run first offense that grinds out clock and has lead to 8 Unders in their first 11 games. Value has been created on the Under, as their Titans short term unsustainable trends of a weakening defense, a pass happy offense coupled with the fluke shootout in these two teams first meetings. Jets/Dolphins Over 38 People appear to be putting a lot of stock into the recent improved play of the Dolphins defense, something I am reluctant to doing, as it may be skewed by the opposition and timing of the games. The Dolphins last four games were against a London distracted Giants offense, an anemic Losman lead Bills offense, a rusty Feely lead Eagles offense, and last weeks game played in quick sand. Prior to those four games, the Dolphins defense was getting manhandled as much as any unit in the league. Although they might have improved a bit, they are far from out of the woodwork, and now face a suspect Jets offense that was able to put up 28 points against them in their first meeting. Although I don’t expect the same effort out of the Jets this week, the Jets could establish some success on both the ground and through the air. The switch to Clemens also favors the Over, as he provides less first level dependence and a faster pace than Pennignton. Expect the Jets offense that just got finished playing three of the better defenses in the league to get somewhat of a reprieve which should allow them to top 20. I really like the Dolphins offenses chances of having a breakout week. Although Beck’s numbers don’t say much, I think he handled two tough road games against blitz happy teams with pose. The Jets defense has struggled all year defending both the run and the pass. The Dolphins running game has been quietly effective and should be the catalyst for Beck’s breakout game. Expect the Dolphins to finally be able to open up the playbook for Beck this week, and employ a game plan correlated to Over’s whether successful or not. My guess is that it will, and coming close to matching their first meeting’s point total is not much of a stretch. Two bad defenses and a total in the 30’s. I will take the Over.

Lions/ Vikings Under 45.5 I feel an over adjustment in the total has been made after both teams coming off high scoring affairs. A lot of talk has been made about the recent regression of the Lions defense, but their offense has been far less effective as well. Their over dependence on the passing game has become more predictable and easy to prepare against. With the Vikings possessing the best run defense in football, and the Lions barely running, expect them to employ zone coverage schemes that send a lot of men back in coverage. The Vikings pass defense has been improving as the season progresses, while the Lions pass game has been regressing during the same time span. Kitna has shown a lot more inconsistencies, the Lions offensive line has struggled more in pass protection, while teams have been finding out ways to take Williams out of games. Their simply lacks enough signs to make me think the Lions put this recent trend to a halt, and will more than likely be unable to reach the 20 point barrier that they achieved in their first meeting. The Vikings have a slight edge running and passing the ball against this struggling Lions defense. However, I feel that these slight edges favor the Under, as it will allow the slow paced Vikings tempo to dictate the pace of the game, and not the up tempo Lions offense. Expect the Vikings to heavily rely on their power running game to keep the Lions offense off the field and prevent this from turning into a shootout. Their success should limit Jackson’s role, grind out clock, and employ a game plan not commensurate to a mid 40 line. Both defenses are solid at creating turnovers, while both quarterbacks are mistake prone. This increases the chances of solid drives ending with nothing. Giants/Bears Under 41.5 It didn’t take long for two consistently overvalued entities, Bears lines and Overs in their games, to pop back up. I will gladly go against both this week. The Bears offense is coming off another poor performance that was masked by Hester’s two touchdowns. Their anemic running game took another blow last week with the injury to Benson. However, their over reliance on their running game should continue this week, as the last thing the Bears will want to do is to employ a pass happy attack against the best pass rush in the league. Expect a lot of ineffective runs and conservative passes and a slow pace from the Bears offense, as they hope for their defense and special teams to win the game for them. The Giants offense should improve off recent form this week, but if they are going to witness such improvement, it will more than likely come with the return of Jacobs and a power running game and allow Manning to work within his means. Manning proved once again last week that he is much more effective when backed by a solid running game. The return of Jacobs should allow the Giants to grind out yards and allow Manning to use a more conservative game plan that limits his propensity for error. The result will be some successful drives demanding on the clock. I don’t see either team surpassing the 20 point mark, making any total in the 40’s a valuable Under play in my opinion. Bucs/Saints Over 41.5 Although it appears that Garcia is more than likely out for this game ( I would wait until game time before placing this bet for a better price), I think his absence may stimulate the Over. The more success the Bucs have, the greater chance games have of going Under, as their conservative game plan of slow tempo running game coupled with a conservative passing game eroded clock time and prevented high scoring games. It also allowed the Bucs defense to be in a position where they are one of the best units in the league, working with leads. In fact, the Bucs defense ranks last in the league when playing behind, a variable that more than likely will be recognized with McCown under center. The Bucs defense is also prone to being worn down for this game, after being on the field for the majority of last week’s Redskins games. Combine these two variables with the notion that the Saints offense has been one of the hottest in the league, and the Bucs defense is prone to a letdown game in this spot. Expect the Saints to employ a high rate of passing and spread the Bucs defense out in the same manner the Redskins were able to last week. The Bucs defense has been somewhat vulnerable defending the better passing teams in the league, a trend I think should be magnified in this game. The Saints will try to establish an early lead to put pressure on McCown or an injured Garcia, a goal they should be successful in employing. Expect a tired Bucs defense to allow more points than they are accustomed to allowing this week. Ideally the Bucs would like to establish a power running game that keeps the Saints offense off the field and McCown’s role under wraps. However, the Saints only strength on defense has been their run defense, an entity that should be stimulated by being able to consistently stack the box with eight or nine men and force McCown to beat them with his arm. The result will be different to last week where the Bucs were content with three and outs playing with the lead the entire game. This week, they will be forced to pass more than they would like to, leading to a lot of three and outs that don’t take time off the clock and big plays downfield against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Bucs offense won’t have the same success when it comes to staying on the field and dictating the tempo of the game, but I would not be surprised to see them score more points than they are accustomed to scoring.

Thanks guys. Adding another play, as line movement allowed the Over to hit my target. Niners/Panthers Over 35 What do you get when you put two backup quarterbacks whose public perception is skewed towards the downside and combine it with two anemic, struggling offenses and teams who are combined 7 for 15 on Unders? More times than not, you get over compensated for such trends and fundamental variables and value on the Over. In my opinion, this is the case for the Niners/ Panthers game. Although Dilfer is one of the least effective quarterbacks in the league, he is not necessarily an Under quarterback, as his inconsistencies, propensity for error, and willingness to throw the ball downfield all are favorable for Overs. The Niners have employed a conservative playbook no matter who the quarterback is, but have proven more willing to pass with Dilfer behind center, as he comes into this game with 120 attempts in his last three starts. The Niners showed a potential offensive up tick last week, scoring their season high point total, while Gore, their catalyst is coming off his best game of the season (also a game in which he appeared the most healthy in). The Panthers defense has been underachieving all season, especially in their home games. They have allowed 31 points in back to back games, and have struggled in both run and pass defense, which is key for a struggling offense like the Niners. The Niners are becoming progressively more aggressive with the playbook, a trend that should continue this week. Whether successful or not, such a trend is favorable for an Over set in the mid 30’s. Testaverde shares the same characteristics as Dilfer. Not terribly effective, but his inconsistencies tend to benefit the Over. He is also by far the most effective current option on the team, and gives the Panthers the best chance of utilizing their key offensive weapons. The Niners defense has also been underachieving and has been struggling in both the run and pass. This should provide better balance to the Panthers offense, which should benefit their passing game that is used to working in a one dimensional environment. I am not expecting a shootout, but am expecting some offensive success from both teams. Expect both to surpass the 17 point mark, allowing this total to go over the low mark.

Adding Bengals/Steelers Over 40 Last Monday, everyone got see what a non competitive field could do to an outcome of a game. People who bet the Under have been oversold as genius’s, while people betting the Over have been second guessing their decision. With everyone factoring in such conditions in today’s prime time game, don’t think for one second that the line has over reflected such conditions. In reality, the field should be in much better shape, as precautionary measures have been taken to intact the integrity of the sod. The line had gone down 10 points since the open. In the last couple hours, it has been bid up 2 points. This is not square money factoring in; as such money tends to put too much stock into anomalistic events. The Bengals practice in such condition every week late in the year, while the Steelers will be able to adjust and should benefit from the improvement in sod. I stick by the statement I made last week, that weather in prime time gains in the long run gets over quantified. I will take the Over again.

Sides Ravens +19 I know I am starting to sound like a broken record each week with my write-ups that are go- against the Patriots, but I will reiterate my notion again. In the long run, handicapping is a numbers game- nothing more, nothing less. Right now the Patriots are coming with such an inflated rate that simply is not sustainable in the long run. Don’t think for one second this not the case again this week, as the premium rate is magnified on Monday Night when combing a 9-2 ATS with a 1-10 ATS. Everyone is well aware of the deprecation in the quality of defense the Ravens have this year. However, this notion in my opinion has been recently blown out of proportion and is a value creator going forward. It is also a defense that is more emotion and intangible base than your typical defense, something that should be working in their favor tonight, as they will be motivated to make a statement on prime time and against the league best. They are simply too proud of a unit to put forth the effort of recent weeks in this game. Johnson also showed how to curtail the Patriots offensive productivity last week by blitzing Brady at different angles and pressuring him more than other teams. Although it is rare to find as good of a blitzing team as the Eagles to replicate the strategy, the Ravens are one of the few that can utilizing such a game plan to their advantage. Doubling Moss and putting a top tier corner on him throughout also proved to be an advantage that will be replicated tonight as well. Lastly, the degree of wind in tonight’s game is material enough to have an effect on the passing game, something that will hurt the Patriots much more than their counterparts, and is simply not ideal when backing a near 20 point favorite. Expect the Patriots to be more committed to the running game and short passes this week, weakening their position to cover. The Eagles also put out somewhat of a blueprint to attack the Patriots defense. Although the Ravens lack the tangibles on this side of the ball to replicate the strategy, I feel regression in productivity of the Patriots defense was as much of a product of them simply not being as good as most intend, and also a product of potential wear down this late in the season with a lot of old players manning the unit. The Ravens are better with Boller, and should do enough against a regressing defense to keep this one close. Expect an inspired effort and inflated price tag to be enough for the Ravens to cover. Totals Under 48 With the cover rate of Overs equally as impressive as the Patriots sides, going forward, expect to see the same inflation rate. What has made most of their totals go Over the mark early in the third quarter is not only their impressive play of their offense, but the tempo that they play at. I expect a slowdown in both tonight. Expect the Ravens defense to put forth an equally, if not better effort as the Eagles did last week. Expect the wind to force the Patriots to slowdown their tempo, rely more on first level passing and a running game, and take away the deep pass that sets up easy scores. I also don’t expect the Ravens offense to utilize the same game plan as the Eagles did offensively. I expect a more conservative grind out mode that tries to take the Patriots offense off the field. The better the Ravens defense is, the more likely the utilization of such a game plan. I don’t see the Ravens topping 17, making this inflated total unlikely to surpass the mark.

Bears/Redskins Under 38 With most of the attention in this game focusing who will the tragedy and short week effect (more), little attention has been brought upon how both variables will affect both teams. The funeral prevented the Redskins and some Bears players from practicing this week, while the short week caused limited practice and preparation for the residual players. The lack of preparation should limit the playbook spectrum and keep both teams offensive game plans conservative. Just when it appeared that the Redskins offense was beginning to turn the corner, they experienced significant regression the last couple of weeks, and have had a hard time finding the end zone. Both defenses they faced were undersized and predicated on speed, the same type in which they will face today. The Redskins running game lacks the break away ability it once had, as Portis currently resides under 4 yards a carry. Their passing game has suffered the same fate, and has been forced to have to chip away at the field. With no practice this week to work in their recent regression, expect Saunders to be less exotic and try to employ a heavy dose of power running game and conservative passes that chip away at the field, limit mistakes that are predicated on a lack or prep (and against a defense designed to create turnovers), all while eating up a lot of clock. The Bears defense is no longer the threat they once were, but the Redskins simply lack the tangibles and preparation to exploit such newfound deficiencies. The result should be high rate of decent drives that take up time and end with three points. The Bears offense has also been in disarray, but occasionally masked by Hester’s ability to pad the scoreboard. Aside from last weeks no huddle opening drive, it was incredibly ineffective. Their non existent running game has gotten only worse with the injury to Benson, and should be unsuccessful in exploiting what I feel is the Redskins biggest weakness, their run defense. However, unlike most ineffective running games, the Bears lack of trust and productivity in their passing game forces them to still heavily utilize their running game. This notion should hold especially true with a lack of prep time this week and the Redskins propensity to show a lot of looks that force mistake prone quarterbacks like Grossman into mistakes. Although the Redskins secondary is depleted, they still hold a decisive advantage over their counterparts passing game. Much like the Redskins, the Bears will more than likely be forced into an archaic game plan heavily predicated on the run. The result should be long drives and a lot of field goals. Much like last week, don’t expect Hester to get a lot of chances. With both teams playing on short rest, their propensity to wear down exists, potentially hindering the chances of a low scoring game. However, the Redskins defense is playing with a lot of emotion and pride (decreasing the chances of a fatigued meltdown), while the Bears defense has been known for such as well. At the same time, both offenses appear to be going through the motions. Expect more of a “not to lose mentality” than a “go out and win mentality” from both teams to keep their playoff chances alive. The result should be a conservative game with a lot of field goals and limited amount of touchdowns.

(may add later) Sides Steelers +10.5 New week, same story. Despite a sharp market correction off the open, value remains on the Steelers, as the premium off the true intrinsic value of the Patriots should remain in tact throughout the year. Even the most supporting Patriot backers are getting concerned with their recent regression. Although they are a better team than they put on the field Monday night, things will not improve much this week, as they face the team that in my opinion matches up as well as any other team in the league against them. We have seen a recent regression in the Patriots high octane passing game the last couple of weeks. The regression has come mainly from two variables- teams have found out how to limit Moss’s production and how to pressure Brady with by utilizing a variety of exotic blitzes. Not every team can execute such a game plan, but probably no defense in the league can execute this type of game plan as well as the Steelers. The Steelers posses the best pass defense in the league, a facet that should only improve this week with the return of Palamula. More importantly, they have accomplished such a title predominantly thanks to their blitzing schemes that pressure the quarterback as well as any other team in the league. Expect Brady to run into more of the same problems that has plagued him the last couple of weeks, and force the Patriots to once again put up points well of their mean. The other main regression the Patriots have experienced has been their defense. As mentioned last week, this facet may be more sustainable, as the unit was overachieving, has experienced a key injury, and posses players prone to wearing down late in the season. Last week, the power running game pretty much beat up their front. On short rest, the Patriots defense that much more vulnerable to the Steelers power running game that should have success and key the Patriots offense off the field. Ben has scene this defense and their schemes many times, and the Patriots pass defense does not hold the usual edge against their counterparts this week. Expect some success on the ground and in the air from the Steelers, allowing this game to remain close throughout. The Steelers should also benefit from the return of three key integral players that have been absent in recent weeks. The market correction appears to be slowing hitting the Patriots, but in my opinion, remains nowhere near true value. This game should be decided by a one possession score, and I will gladly take the Steelers and double digits. Ravens +9.5 A lot of people are expecting a letdown spot from the Ravens after the emotional and physical grinding they took Monday night. Although such a notion is possible, in my opinion, it is fully reflected in the market price. Also such a notion is less probable, as the Ravens remain at home, play at prime time once again, and play a team they would like to seek revenge against after last years playoff loss. They are also playing with more confidence heading into this game. As mentioned last week, we have seen the worst of the Ravens offense this season. Boller provides this offense with some upward mobility, and has filled in quite nicely after replacing McNair. The Ravens running game also took a step forward last week as well. The Colts defense has played well, but may be softening a bit, while never as potent on the road. It is an undersized unit that is prone to wearing down late in the season, and are most vulnerable to the power running game the Ravens possess. Expect the Ravens to once again have success on the ground, take the pressure off of Boller and provide more balance to the offense compared to what they are accustomed to. The likely return of Heap should pay big dividends as well. The Colts defense may struggle against a defense that could put the pressure on the quarterback like the Ravens. Harrison’s absence leaves Manning without his best check down to overcome a blitz happy defense. The grass, potentially slick field and Ravens top tier run defense should curtail the efficiency the Colts running game is accustomed to, while the poor weather conditions, pressuring ability and injuries should curtail their passing game. The Colts are no longer accustomed to beating solid defense by two possessions. This one should be much closer than the spread indicates. Bucs-3 I have been saying it for a couple months now, but the Bucs may be the biggest sleeper in football, the second best team in the NFC, and arguably the most consistently undervalued team in football. Although the market is slowly catching up to their worth, I still see them as undervalued. The Bucs may not have the most explosive offense in the league, but they are highly productive, consistent and balanced. The return of Garcia should only enhance such traits. Expect the Bucs to take advantage of the Texans injured, slumping and sub par defense who has struggled in both their run defense as well as their pass defense. This bodes well for the Bucs, as their passing game feeds off their running game more than most teams. The magnitude of the injury to Robinson continues to go unnoticed, but the Texans simply lack depth in their secondary and now lack a cover corner that can match up well against Galloway. Expect the Bucs to continue to quietly fly under the radar on offense this week with another productive and balanced performance. The Bucs defense is another unit that has been highly productive and balanced, as they have defended the pass and run well all season. Their style of defense and scheming ability is designed to dominate sub par offenses like the Texans, and also take advantage of mistake prone quarterbacks like Rosenfels. Expect the Bucs to be successful in taking out the Texans running game early and putting pressure on Rosenfels to make things happen. He simply lacks the consistency and weapons to answer the call. Teams coming off a win like the Bucs did last week and possess a comfortable first place lead are generally prone to a letdown when going on the road against a sub par out of conference team the following week. However, the Bucs are not your typical team as veteran leadership and solid coaching will prevent them from falling into such a trap. Expect another solid performance out of the Bucs as they try to get that first round bye.

Totals Chargers/Titans Under 41 Despite going Over in three of their last four games, I feel that the Titans are still one of the most intriguing long term Under plays as the market seems to provide continual value on the Under in their games. In my opinion, this game is no different. Things will get much more difficult for the Titans sub par offense after facing three weak defenses in a row. The Titans have yet to prove capable of putting up a decent amount of points against a quality defense all season, a trend that I don’t feel will come to an end against the Chargers. Their Chargers defense has really been coming into their own of late, and finally appear to be playing to their capability. Their pass defense has been one of the better ones in the league, as hold a decisive advantage over the inconsistent passing game of the Titans. More importantly, their pass defense success has come predominantly come from their ability to pressure the quarterback and create turnovers, which does not bode well for a mistake prone quarterback like Young. This should only encourage a run happy offense to rely on the run that much more. However, the Chargers run defense is decent enough to curtail the production of the Titans run game and limit the success to keeping drives sustained for short periods of time. Expect the Titans young offense to be overwhelmed a bit, be limited to “safe mode” and rely on their defense and field position to win the game. The result be a limited amount of points. The Chargers offense has yet to kick it into full gear, especially in their road games, where they have actually been inefficient. The Titans got a big boost with the return of Haynesworth last week despite his production being limited. Expect bigger dividends from his presence this week, which should curtail Tomlinson to a solid yet non dominant game. The Titans pass defense in my opinion remains one of the best in the league and hold an edge over their counterparts passing game. The result will be a heavy reliance on Tomlinson and their defense to win the game. This has a makings of an AFC slugfest filled with solid defense and a lot of running. The result should be long drives and few points. I like the Under. Lions/Cowboys Under 51.5 Once again I find that the totals in the Cowboys games are being set at prices well above intrinsic worth due to the Over rate in their games this season. The Lions offense has seriously regressed and more importantly should get progressively worse here on out. Teams have been better defending their one dimensional style, while Kitna and his offensive line are simply not playing at a level that could light up a scoreboard any longer. Take out their best offensive weapon (by far) in Williams, and the Lions offense is not left with much to try to get things back on track. It is also an offense that used to be much more productive at home, but even that edge has dissipated of late. Things will not get much easier for them this week, as they face one of the best defenses they have faced all season, and a defense that fundamentally matches up well with the Lions strengths. Without Williams, the Lions lack the deep threat that could potentially attack the Cowboys vulnerability defending the third level. It will also shift the other Lions receivers out of the supplementary role they are built for. The Lions offensive lines regression coupled with the Cowboys top tier pass rush should force Kitna to rely on shorter passes to move the ball downfield. However, his lack of consistency and now options should force the Lions once again into a lot of stalled drives. Without a running game to offset this disadvantage, the Lions should once again struggle putting up points on the scoreboard. There is no denying the decisive advantage the Cowboys offense has against the Lions regressing defense. However, one has to wonder how long it will take the Cowboys to generate a comfortable lead and go into running mode. Although they should put up their fair share of points, they should not be able to compensate for the lack thereof from the Lions. Too much value on the Under to pass up. Panthers/Jaguars Over 37.5 I really like this Jaguars team, but feel that the market is starting to catch up to their worth covering 8 of 12 will tend to do. However, what the market has yet to catch up to is this teams Over trend, as the prices continue to reflect this team being a defense lead and conservative running oriented team. However, in reality, their defense has depreciated this year, and it is now their offense and an underrated passing game that has a lot to do with their success. Don’t let last week full you. The Panthers defense is below average and has struggled all year defending above average offenses. This does not bode well for their chances this week that could both run and pass highly efficiently. The Jaguars passing game may be the most underrated in football, as Garrard has been highly productive and mistake free. He has been taking advantage of teams stacking the box in fear of their running game, and has been attacking the second and third level defenses beneficial to Overs. Expect him to have continued success this week facing a highly inconsistent pass defense. The Panthers run defense should also be overmatched and are prone to allowing the big run. Expect the Jaguars up tempo play and success in the passing and running game to lead to a lot of points. Ideally, the Panthers would like to slowdown the game and turn this into a slugfest. However, their defense has been unable to stop solid offenses, leaving such a strategy moot. The return of Stroud and Jaguars stacking of the box will also more than likely take away the Panther ineffective running game from the onset and force the Panthers to employ a game plan favorable to the Over whether successful or not. Although the Panthers have one of the more anemic offenses in the league, they may have some success this week against a tired defense that has not been playing terribly well this season. Testaverde not only adds some downfield potential for the Panthers and allows Smith to be more of a factor in the game, but also is mistake prone and could set up the opposition with easy scores. I am not expecting the Panthers to light up the scoreboard, but expect them to approach 20 and not demand a lot of time off the clock during their drives.