MLB 2007

Cardinals/Seahawks Under 44.5 In my opinion, this is one of the most undervalued plays this week. I really like the Seahawks defense and don’t feel that they get the credit they deserve. They have defended the run and pass well all season, especially at home (where they are also helped out by the crowd who has forced more false starts than any other stadium in football). The injuries to both Fitzgerald and Boldin are monumental as they were the catalyst of the Cardinals offense and were able to mask Warner’s deficiencies. Their absence (or at least Boldins) will force the Cardinals to deviate from their normal game plan favorable to the Over into a more conservative one. Adding to their absence, also effecting the Cardinals productivity in the air will be the Seahawks decisive advantage in the trenches and this stadium being a hostile environment for establishing a passing game. These three variables are stimulants to Warner’s mistake propensity and the Cardinals know it. Expect them to rely more on the run this game, which has not been terribly effective and lacks big play ability. This week the Cardinals will have trouble scoring points, and are the biggest candidate for huge regression in points off their last four games. I am not terribly bullish on the Seahawks offense that has been inconsistent all season. The return of Alexander and being able to put up a lot of points against a defense prone for a letdown last week does not change such a notion. The injury to Wilson hurts the Cardinals defense, but does not necessarily favor Overs, as his absence may have a bigger effect on their run defense than pass defense. The Seahawks ineffective running game will prevent them from dominating the Cardinals biggest weakness, their run defense, but will allow them to be effective enough to grind out yards slowly and prevent them from turning into a high rate passing team. The absence of the Cardinals two best pass rushers will not be as detrimental for them in this game, as they face a passing attack heavily dependent on the first level. The Seahawks will have some success in the air and on the ground, but will have to chip away at the field to do so. They should surpass 20, but will not be able to compensate for the lack of offense of the Cardinals and the inflated total. Patriots/Steelers Under 49 Although I continue to get hammered betting Unders in Patriots games, I will continue to bet against heavily inflated lines. Teams are starting to figure out how to curtail the potency of the Patriots offense. Both the Eagles and Ravens had some success against the Patriots by doubling Moss and using a good amount of blitzes. The Steelers are one of the best teams in taking out the opponent’s number one receiver and may also be the best blitzing team in the league. They are also the best pass defense in football. These are enough vital variables that lead me to believe the Patriots will once again put up points well of their mean average, and also be forced to a more conservative game plan favorable to the Under. The best defense for the Patriots offense may be a good offense against their defense. I have mentioned the last couple of weeks that the Patriots defense was overachieving and prone to some regression. However, such a notion actually favors the Under as it keeps the up tempo Patriots offense off the field more and shortens the clock. Expect the Steelers to try to slow down the tempo of the game with a power running attack and conservative passing game as they know their best chance of winning is employing their brand of football. With the recent regression of the Patriots defense and propensity to coming into this game more tired than most coming off short rest and a physical game, the Steelers should have some success grinding out yards and eating up clock. However, putting up a lot of points will not be likely for this slumping offense. Colts/Ravens Under 43 I mentioned last week that the Ravens have some upward mobility with Boller and should get progressively better as the season goes on. However, the level of success they witnessed last week is simply not sustainable, especially against the Colts defense. Expect Boller to have problems adjusting to the speed of the Colts defense, as such a variable has hindered his ability in the past, and should continue to do so with the lack of protection his line has been giving him. The Colts have one of the best pass defenses in the league, but are still vulnerable the run. This should force the Ravens to return to the run oriented offense that they were prior to last weeks game and force them into a more clock eating game plan. The Colts inability to stop opposing running games should provide the Ravens some success on the ground, but the lack of consistency in their running game should prevent dominance. Combine that with being overmatched in the passing game should lead to some sustained drives to field goal range, but expecting more than a touchdown may be wishful thinking. The Ravens defense is prone to a letdown after last week. However, keeping them afloat should be the revenge factor and another prime time home game against a marked opponent. The Colts passing game has significantly regressed with the absence of Harrison and are always less potent on grass and in cold weather. It is also most vulnerable against defenses that could get to Manning. This leads me to believe the Colts will be more committed to the running game and short passes. The lack of one decisive edge the Colts usually have on offense leads me to believe a performance significantly lower than their mean is in the cards.

Adding a couple more plays. Sides Chiefs +7 I am not terribly excited about betting on the Chiefs. They have a bad coach, an inexperienced quarterback and have nothing to play for. However, the Broncos are once again too overvalued to not bet against, as their non existent Mile high effect and expected non existent turnaround has once again inflated their line. The Broncos defense has been one of the worst all season, and an expected turnaround this late in the season with nothing to play for may be wishful thinking out of a veteran group. Their anemic run defense is especially inviting for a team that is in dire need of establishing one to take the pressure off their quarterback. Their league worst efficiency against opposing tight ends is inviting for an offense that is heavily dependent on theirs. Expect the Chiefs offense to do enough to keep this one close. The Chiefs defense continues to play well and have shown no signs of giving up on the season. It is also a defense that matches up well against their opponents, who have become more dependent on the passing game, especially with the recent increase in productivity. The Broncos simply lack an offensive advantage to warrant being such favorites. Totals Dolphins/Bills Over 34 What do you get when you put together a rematch of one of the lowest scoring games of the season, put them in a field with horrible weather conditions, and have two inexperienced (unpopular) quarterbacks under center? More times than not you will get a total over discounting the variables pointing towards the Under. A lot of people got to witness the definitive regression of Beck last week and how anemic their offense was in poor weather a couple of weeks ago. However, what most appear not to be factoring in was how favorable Beck’s play was to the Over. The Weather conditions in Buffalo are poor, but the variable is being over quantified by the downward shift in market price. Expect the Bills defense to constantly stack the box and force Beck to beat them, especially with Chatman’s injury making the Dolphins that much more thin at running back. Beck’s inconsistencies and propensity for error should favor the Over, as the Bills defense will likely set up the Bills offense with favorable field position, while the Dolphins successful drives will more than likely come by big chunks and not by chipping away at the field. Edwards adds value to the Bills, but not to the Overs, as his dink and dunk style it’s up too much clock. However, don’t expect such a style to be implemented today, as the weather and expected stacked box will be unforgiving for such a strategy. Expect more shots downfield against a suspect Dolphins secondary (harder to cover in such a slick field) and an increased propensity for error out of Edwards (first game in such conditions). The return of Lynch adds big play potential, while the Dolphins league worst red zone defense should improve the Bills problem of leaving points on the board in favorable drives. The Dolphins defense showed signs of quitting last week, a variable that can carry over in the cold weather.

Bears/Vikings Under 43 No surprise that there happens to be value on the Under in a prime time game that is a rematch between teams that combined for 66 points in their first meeting, and have gone Over the total in a combined six of their last eight games. A lot is to blame for the Bears disappointing season, but their inept offense should take most of it. For an offense that is built on a running game, having one of the leagues worst won’t cut it. Going up against the leagues best run defense will only magnify this deficiency. Although putting forth an overmatched running attack is not always necessarily favorable for the Under, in my opinion, in this instance it is. The Bears are always committed to the running game throughout the game no matter how ineffective it is. This tendency should hold true with Orton behind center, as they will be hesitant to throw a third string quarterback into the fire in making his first start in a couple of years. When Orton does pass, they will more than likely simplify the game plan, allow him to shake off the rust and try to prevent him from being vulnerable to the complex Cover 2 looks and blitzing schemes the Vikings put forth. Orton is also more Under friendly than the other 2 Bears starters, as he is less prone to error and more dependent on the first level passing game. The Bears simply lack the quality passing attack to take advantage one the Vikings biggest weakness, defending the pass. Expect another sub par offensive performance out of the Bears, as they get nowhere near the point total that they achieved in their first meeting against the Vikings. Hester was a big factor in game one, but the recent trend of not allowing him to touch the ball on special teams should continue until the Bears offense shows signs of life. The Vikings offense dominated the Bears in game one. Since that meeting, the Vikings offense has gotten better, while the Bears defense has gotten worse. Having said that, don’t expect the same performance out of them in their second meeting. Although the Bears defense has been a bust this season, part of the reason for their recent regression has been the notion that their undersized front has been worn down and too thin. Having three extra days of rest should help matters, while playing on turf that enhances their biggest strength (their speed), the return of Vasher to shore up secondary concerns, and being motivated to avenge their most embarrassing performance of the season against the Vikings in game one are intangibles that may improve their performance. Although the Vikings passing game has improved, don’t expect many chances out of this facet tonight, as they feel comfortable with their running game and defense to get them the victory. Two straight weeks, the Vikings proved content sitting on second half leads, and are more interested in eating clock than continuing to put points on the board. Points in recent games have come from unsustainable areas in defense and special teams. Expect a solid running performance out of the Vikings, but lighting up the scoreboard is not as probable than recent games and their first meeting suggest.

Steelers @ Rams Under 44 Now that the Steelers defense is starting to raise concerns and is becoming a bit out of favor with the market place, it may be an opportune time to spot value on correlated plays to a defensive rebound. In my opinion, the direct correlation value is on the Under in this game. There is no denying that the Steelers defense has slowed down a bit of late, but playing two of the top five best offenses can certainly do that to a team. Despite having to play off short rest and coming off a physical game Sunday, expect a rebound out of their performance this week. The Steelers defense thrives at disrupting opponents passing games with complex blitzes and an ability to put pressure on the quarterback. This style becomes dominant against offenses unable to give their quarterback time in the pocket, not boding well for an injured Rams line struggling to give their quarterback time all year. This decisive mismatch coupled with the Steelers coming off their worst run defensive performance of the season should encourage a heavy dose of running out of the Rams. However, their unproductive running game should be overmatched by a Steelers defense, which should make yards hard to come by in the air as well as on the ground for this Rams offense that has surpassed 20 points twice in their last nine games. Don’t expect a lot of points out of the Rams yet again tonight. There has been a structural change in the Steelers offense this year, making them no longer a heavy dose running team that passes only when necessary. However, with Ben playing hurt, the progressing failures of the offensive line in pass protection, playing on short rest and holding a solid advantage in the running game leads me to believe a temporary reversion to their old philosophy in this game. Expect a heavier dose of running and a more conservative passing attack out of the Steelers this week, as they should feel such a game plan should be enough to get by the Rams. They will also like to avoid the Rams ability to create mistakes and take advantage of struggling lines with their blitzes. The Steelers should have success on offense, but expect this success to grind out the clock and chip away at the field. Expect the grind out mode to get progressively more noticeable as the game progresses and the expected lead continues. Good opportunity to go with an Under in the Steelers game in my opinion.

Sides Bengals +3 The Bengals are completely out of favor right now. A once heavily backed public team has forced their backers to jump ship with their uninspired play, underachieving status, and losing 9 of their 14 games against the spread, including four of their last five. The Browns might be the “sexiest” play in football this season. Their high flying offense has allowed them to be a covering machine, including eight covers in their last nine games. Their bandwagon gets increasingly bigger the with each success cover. This appears to be an attractive buy low and sell high opportunity for value players looking for a market over reaction. The Browns still have a lot of holes on their team. Mainly their pass defense, a facet that has been masked of late by playing in poor weather and against poor passing offense. Although the Bengals passing game has been underachieving, being stocked full of playmakers allows for a potential breakout any given Sunday. This appears to be an ideal opportunity for that breakout against a team they put up 45 against earlier this season, and a defense that Palmer has owned his entire career. Expect the Bengals passing game to have success this week, as they have a variety of mismatches they could exploit throughout the game. Having a rare slight edge in the ground game should allow should add a rare balance to their offense. The Browns hold an advantage on offense as well, but maybe not as much as most think. The Bengals defense appears to be playing more in sync in the second half, and have not shown many signs of packing it in. Anderson’s season has been quietly going downhill, as his second half has not been anything special. With an underrated run defense that could curtail the surging Browns running game, and the Browns become prone to a potential offensive letdown. The Browns are playing top notch football and are in dire need of a win. The Bengals have underachieved all season and have potentially packed it in. However, the spread accounts for such and then some. I will play the contrarian role here. Colts -7 With the Colts having everything wrapped up, potentially resting most of their starters for the majority of the game, and having key injuries to deal with, not many people want to take their chances with them this week. This is where I will step in. Although the Colts are more than likely going to rest key players most of the game, past seasons of backing into the playoffs with rested rust should inspire a solid outing out of this team. Manning still has a lot to work on with his young receivers as they need to build up more chemistry to get in sync come playoff time. No matter who is at running back, the Colts should have solid success on the ground throughout the game against a sub par Texans run defense. No matter who plays and for how long, the Colts should have their way on offense. Although the Colts are on a downward trend on defense, while the contrary can be said for the Texans offense, expect some regression out of the Texans this time around. Being an offense heavily dependent on the success of their passing game, they should struggle against what might be the best pass defense in the league. The lack of running game should allow the Colts to mask their defensive weakness. The Colts crowd should give them the additional boost they have lacked for two weeks as it becomes playoff mode atmosphere. Colts by at least two possessions. Bucs -6 No surprise I am going with the Bucs again this week, as they have become a nearly weekly play for me, as I have been able to take advantage of the markets inability to quantify their true worth. Hill’s back to back solid play has gotten some Niners critics to back off, but expect his solid play to come to an end against a pass defense that causes havoc against the inexperienced. Hill’s solid play should be taken with a grain of salt, as it came against a Bengals pass defense and a second half effort against the prevent Vikings defense. Sunday he will see a lot of complex looks out of a defense that is playing at the top of its game. Without having the quality receivers to help overcome this mismatch, expect the Hill hoopla to come to an end. Being overmatched in the run game as well, should lead the Niners to return to their non existent offense. I always welcome backing Garcia in inspired mode, and that’s what he will play with returning back to San Francisco. The Niners defense is still vulnerable against the run and pass, which makes them most vulnerable against balanced attacks like the Bucs. Expect another quietly effect attack out of the Bucs offense, as they still have that number three seed on their mind. Totals Giants/Bills Over 32 An 8-0 game played in snow for Buffalo last week and the Giants horrific offensive performance last week combined with another market over reaction to the weather in Buffalo has created value on the Over. Even with snow and potential high winds, the Giants are in dire need to get their passing game clicking prior to playoffs. Don’t be surprised if they finally find success against a team that lacks depth in their secondary, and are finally playing without playoff inspirations. More importantly, Manning is at his best when backed by an effective running game, something that he should find against an undersized front vulnerable to the power running, and has shown signs of wearing down late in the season. With the Giants offense out of favor, I will take a position that their talent returns to surface with a better than expected performance and success on the ground as well as in the air. Last weeks weather prevented the Edwards from once again proving he adds value to the Bills offense. Although weather can hinder it a bit again, expect the Bills to try to open up the playbook and find more out about their quarterback that they hope will lead the team next year. With nothing to play for but pride, Everett, and their fans, expect more risks and a more favorable game plan for Over bettors. Successful or not, such an expected game plan backed by a 32 point total is an intriguing proposition. Bengals/Browns Over 43.5 The first game combined for 96 points. Since that game, not much has changed from either team, we are simply more aware of both team’s strengths and weaknesses. With immaterial weather, this Over appears too good to pass up. The Bengals offense has been slumping, but primed for a breakout game against a defense that they have owned for years and a defense whose weaknesses they could exploit. Expect Palmer to come out passing early and often, and test the Browns suspect third level pass defense with an influx of deep passes throughout. Success should be better than expected, and holding a slight edge in the running game should provide ideal balance as well. The Bengals offense is out of sync, struggling and not getting along. I am predicting a sizeable turnaround from recent form in their last home game of the season against a team who they would love to kill their playoff hopes. Although the Browns offense is quietly regressing, they have all the tangibles to exploit the Bengals weakness-their pass defense. This concern is also a hedge to my Bengals bet. The Bengals got finished facing two third string quarterbacks and didn’t look good. Facing Anderson and three top receiving threats should make matters worse for this deficiency. Possessing an improving run defense should only encourage the Browns to pass more, and let the expected shootout part 2 to unfold. Both teams should reach the mid 20’s. Good value on the Over.

Packers @ Bears Over 33 Here is another game in which the drop in total due to weather has created value on the Over. Another value creator is the Bears offense that has really become out of favor. However, it is an offense that has gotten so bad that it has now become an Over offense. The Bears offense is so inefficient, that three and outs, short clock time and extra possession in games has become expected. Expect more of the same this week, as the Bears simply lack the talent to chip away at the field, leading to quick scoring drives and quick three and outs that should set up good field position for the Packers. The running game has hit capitulation, and now the Bears finally appear content in abandoning it, also a variable that should favor the Over. Favre should have success against a Bears pass defense that should be overmatched and prone to the big play. An improved running game and a deprecating run defense should allow for a balanced attack that should take advantage of the expected favorable field position. Both defenses and special teams are capable of the big play that could add a touchdown. I will not let the weather detour me from all these over variables. I will play the Over in this one.

Broncos @ Chargers Under 47 For the first three quarters of the season, bettors and linesmakers alike counted on a defensive turnaround out of the Broncos, forcing market prices on their totals to consistently be priced below actual form. Going into week 16 of the season, and now carrying an 11 and 3 Over record, a realization of a structural change in the Broncos team has not only come to fruition, but there appears to be a market over adjustment for their trend. In my opinion, there is a premium set to get on their Over bandwagon, and I will gladly go the other way. The Chargers are playing their best football of the season. With all the playmakers on offense, there is a tendency to give too much credit to this unit for their recent improved play. In reality, the Chargers defense may be the hottest in the league. This does not bode well for a Broncos team that managed only three points against at the time was an underachieving Chargers defense. Although they should improve off that games performance, their fundamental strengths are countered by the strengths and drastically improved play of the Chargers defense. The Chargers pass defense is one of the more underrated in the league, as it is statistically hindered by opponents having to play catch up early. Their ability to pressure the quarterback and defend the deep part of the field directly counters the Broncos biggest offensive weapon of stretching the field. Expect the Broncos to revert more back to pass years form and rely on the run and first level passing game, and shorten the game. The Chargers defense, who has not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games, has a good opportunity to make it five. We are all well aware of the Broncos struggles on defense this year. However, unlike earlier in the season, these struggles are now factored into their lines. Expect a veteran defense to come out with a lot of motivation after their embarrassing performance against the Chargers in their first meeting. Even with the Chargers having the third seed at stake, expect them to keep it safe and limit Tomlinson and Rivers playing time and role in tonight’s game. The result should be a more conservative game plan. If an early lead is achieved, they will also be content with trying to get the game over as soon as possible.

Saturday Patriots @ Giants Under 46.5 As expected the spread and totals in Patriots games have started to catch up to them, as even the best team in the league can not bypass inflated numbers for long period of time. The Patriots have covered just one of their last five games and have gone Under in three straight games. Although their spreads continue to be inflated, the premium is shrinking. However, there still appears to be good value going against the Over in their games. The total jumped midweek when the expectations of the Giants starters playing time increased. However, I am not sure if an increase in the total is justified, as not only was the opening inflated, but with two unique variables in Patriots games being that they will not hesitate to run up the score (implying the advantage for the Under with having a potential blowout due to playing against backups does not exist) and having the Giants best men on the field on offense gives them the best chance of keeping the Patriots offense off the field. Expect the Giants to run the ball as much as possible and slow down the tempo of the game. The Patriots have shown vulnerability against power running games, something the return of Jacobs gives the Giants. The last thing the Giants want to do heading into the playoffs is to give Manning negative momentum. Expect them to simply the passing playbook and prevent him from making mistakes and being overwhelmed against the Patriots defense. Without Moss and Shockey and having Burress’s play limited, the passing options are simply not there to prevent Manning from being overmatched by the Patriots solid pass defense. Don’t be surprised if the Patriots run the ball more than usual, especially late in the game if they have a decisive lead. Although they have the perfect season on their mind, leaving the field healthy is also a priority for them. The Giants have the best pass rushing combo in the league, which will allow for more zone coverage’s and harder to execute deep passes. Don’t expect the Giants to shutdown the Patriots offense, but expect the Patriots to play below their mean for the third straight week. The weather is also not commensurate to a total in the mid 40’s. Sunday Sides Colts +6 Definitely theme for me this week is taking positions on teams with nothing to play for, as there appears to be an overreaction in the marketplace to the notion of being able to bet against a team fitting under such assumptions. Probably the biggest overreaction is in the Colts game, as not only do the Colts have nothing to play for, but the Titans playoff hopes depend on this game. Even though Manning and the rest of the Colts starters on offense will more than likely not make it to the first half. Sorgi is an underrated backup who is very familiar with the system. The Titans have regressed on defense in the second half of the season, and can be run against. This should take pressure off of Sorgi and allow him to work within his means. The Colts are less likely to give as much time off to their defensive starters. This does not bode well for a Titans offense that has struggled for the most part all season. The Titans being completely overmatched in the passing game should make it hard for them to run away with the game. With the Colts wanting to end the season on a winning note, six points at home is too good to pass up. Bucs +3 No surprise that I am betting on the Bucs once again, even if a win is not important to them this week, and their starters are likely to rest the majority of the game. Don’t let last weeks lackadaisical performance from McCown full you. He has already proven twice this season he could put forth dominant performances under center. He should be motivated to put forth a solid game and end the season on a positive note. The drop-off in running back quality is not much from starter to even third string. The Bucs should be able to run the ball and put forth a balanced offensive performance against an underachieving and injured Panthers defense. Moore may be an upgrade for the Panthers, but that is not saying much. The Panthers have only bypassed 17 points once in their last nine games, something hardly commensurate to a road favorite. The Bucs defense is more of a product of their system, implying the backups could take over nicely. Without a running game, Moore should run into problems. The Bucs are the better coached team playing with more confidence, are at home, and will have the better quarterback on the field throughout. Getting three points is a bargain.

Seahawks +1Some handicappers swear by the rule never lay points on a poor team, as you are asking a team to do something they are nearly incapable of doing. Although I feel each game must be treated differently, it is hard for me to pass up betting against the Falcons having to win the game. Much like the other teams I am backing this week, the Seahawks are expected to rest their starters the majority of the game. However, like the Bucs, they will have the better quarterback on the field throughout, while the drop-off in running back is not much. Redman has not looked good in the last two games, and his propensity for error will be magnified against a defense that creates mistakes. Expect the momentum the Seahawks are playing with to continue into the playoffs with a win in Atlanta. Cowboys +9 Much like the Colts/Titans game. The Redskins need a win for a playoff bid, while the Cowboys have everything wrapped up. However, these variables are more than reflected in the line. The Cowboys have a deep bench and an experienced back up quarterback that will not be overwhelmed by Williams complex looks. The Redskins are hot, but have played the role of opportunist, beating up teams with struggling quarterbacks that are heavily dependent on the running game in their last three weeks. This is not the case for the Cowboys who should find success in the air even with Johnson. The Cowboys are deep at running back, and the running game should provide balance to their offense. The Cowboys would love to knock out their hated rivals, and although starters will be rested, they will not lay down for the Redskins. This game should be close. Packers -4 Another bet on backups. The Lions can not end the season quick enough, while the Packers will want to end the season on a positive note after putting forth their worst effort of the season in week 16. With a week off, they are more likely to give their starters playing time, especially on defense. Rogers proved against the Cowboys of playing well and rallying the offense behind him. The Packers drop off at running back is not much. With the Lions defense struggling the entire second half, there is no reason for the Packers back ups to continue the trend. The Lions are a poor cold weather team that will find it hard to get up for this game after a second half collapse. The Packers should erase last week’s performance with a solid end of the season win at home. Jaguars +6.5 The Jaguars are simply playing too well to pass up as an underdog. Although starters are likely to rest a good portion of the game, the Jaguars would like to keep their increasing momentum riding into the playoffs. This team plays as hard as any in the league, and their effort of their starters should inspire the backup. Gray has some experience now, while the depth at receiver and running back should give him weapons to work with. The Texans received a momentum killer in Indy last week, and their inconsistency does not make them an ideal candidate for a two possession win. Chiefs +6.5 This is the only side I am betting on with both teams having nothing to play for but pride. This is not a bet against the Chiefs, rather a bet against a Jets team as a large favorite. Even with the Chiefs playing as poorly as any other AFC team in the second half, their defense should prevent the Jets from running away with this game. The Jets simply do not have an advantage on offense to make me think they run away with this game. The Jets defense is also a bit overrated and could give the Chiefs offense an opportunity to end the season on a good note. Expect the Chiefs to give Croyle some chances as this is their last assessment on him going into next year. With the Jets playing three straight games as spoilers (and losing all three) it may be hard for them to get up for this game.

Totals Lions/Packers Over 39 Hard to imagine two teams combined with a 21-9 ATS on Overs being priced in the 30’s, but an overreaction to the weather and the Packers resting their starters is quite apparent. Despite weather predicaments, the Lions will come out passing early and often. Although their offense has significant regressed in the second half, the Over cover rate in their games has not, and are in fact heading into this game with 8 Overs in their last nine games. This is in large part due to their defense regressing at a higher rate than their offense, and also because their offense employs Over friendly game plans no matter the success rate. Expect the weather to not affect the Lions game plan of a high rate of passing. Although the success rate of their offense has declined, Kitna’s propensity for error coupled with a lot of three and outs and non clock demanding drives should allow a lot of offensive opportunities for both teams. Favre may get a lot of playing time as the Packers have a week off and Rodger health is a question mark. With nothing to play for Favre takes a lot more chances and he should be motivated to avenge last week’s poor performance. Expect the Packers to take advantage of the Lions defensive deficiencies and put up a lot of points heading into the playoffs. Jaguars/Texans Over 41 Hard to imagine a bargain price existing on an Over with a team going Over 8 straight games being involved, but it appears to be the case in this game, as another market over reaction to backups is embedded in the price. The Jaguars defense is solid, but a bit overrated, and is inclined to play less aggressive this week and not show a lot of different looks to the Texans offense. They will also be playing backups for a good part of the game. The Texans underrated offense can do damage against such variables, especially with the likely return of their starting quarterback. They should have no problem bypassing the 20 point mark this week. The Jaguars have the most underrated offense in the league, and the Texans may see a good amount of the players that are to get credit for such play. The depth at running back and receiver coupled with a dominant line should allow the Jaguars offense to be a threat throughout. Although the Texans defense has improved, they are still vulnerable against physical offenses- which they will have to overcome if they want to end the season on a good note. Rams/Cardinals Under 48.5 Like the Jaguars and Lions, the Cardinals have been an Over machine in the second half of the season. However, unlike the other two team’s games, a premium in the line exists for this trend. Don’t let the last two Rams games fool you. Their defense is playing hard, is much improved and will not lie down in this game. The Cardinals have been putting up a lot of points in during their second half Over trend, but have done it against an influx of poor defenses. The Rams are in fact an above average defense relative to their last 8 defenses faced. The Cardinals defense has regressed during this time as well, but the Rams offense may have packed it in. The Rams offense is a veteran group with nothing to play for. Expect a heavy dose of Jackson and a game plan that shortens the clock. Simply put, neither offense is explosive enough to warrant a near 50 point line. Raiders/Chargers Under 42.5 Much like last week, it appears the line in the Chargers game is giving more credit in their second half surge to their offense rather than their defense. It also appears to be neglecting the concept that they will simplify the playbook, will rest the starters during the big lead, and keep eat up clock in the second half. The Raiders defense plays with pride and can defend the pass well. Expect the Chargers success to predominantly come from the ground game. On offense, the Raiders will once again be overwhelmed and Chargers defense dominant. The Raiders will allow Russell to work within his means, and keep a balanced attack no matter the score. The result will more than likely be the Raiders not putting up a lot of points, and the Chargers putting forth a low scoring dominant performance back to back weeks. Chiefs/ Jets Over 34 Not sure if two par to sub par defenses warrant a total in the low 30’s. This game also involves two very motivated starting quarterbacks hungry to end the season on a good note. The Chiefs defense has regressed during the second half of the season, as allowing 24 or more points in four straight games may be evidence enough they have given up on their offense. Pennington played well last week and could carry forward to this week, especially if he is backed by a solid running game. I have no problem backing the Jets offense when they are completely out of favor, something that appears evident after a combined 16 points in their last two games. Expect the Chiefs to open up the playbook for Croyle, a trend that started a couple of weeks back. They have implemented a more up tempo style complementary to the Over, and the Jets can be passed against. Both teams should bypass the 17 point barrier that will send the total over the mark.

Saturday Seahawks -3.5 The Redskins have become NFL’s feel good story after winning their last four games of the season without their starting quarterback and having to deal with the Taylor tragedy. They have become the NFC’s sleeper team, entering the season with momentum and a “me against the world” mentality. But how justified is this new found love for the team? Early line movement says so, I beg to differ. Beating the Bears at home, allowing the Giants to beat themselves, and beating a collapsing Vikings and half hearted Cowboys team leaves a lot to be desired. I will gladly back one of the best home teams of the last five years when they are out of favor. The Seahawks are a better all around team entering this game with a lot more experience. The Redskins pass defense is exploitable against quality passing games, something they really haven’t faced much in the second half of the season. Hassleback’s ability to get rid of the ball early and depend on the first level should offset the Redskins complex blitzing schemes. Their depth at receiver should pay dividends against the questionable depth in the Redskins secondary. If the Seahawks up tempo passing game that is usually successful at home becomes effective early, the Redskins momentum entering the game should disappear really quickly, while Collins true worth will be finally tested. I don’t expect much from the Redskins offensively Saturday. Although Collins’ arrival has added some spark, it was derived with a lot of smoke and mirrors (favorable match ups and dink and dunk passes) and lacks sustainability. With extra film on Collins and a ferocious pass rush, expect Collins deficiencies to finally come to fruition this week. Ideally the Redskins would like to take pressure off of him with a heavy dose of running. However, the Redskins running game is better on paper than it is on the field, while the Seahawks run defense is one of the best and most underrated in the league. Without an effective running game to fall back on, Collins and the Redskins offensive line will be overwhelmed by the Seahawks disguised coverage, complex blitzing schemes and ability to get to the quarterback as well as any other NFC team. Expect the Redskins feel good story to come to an end Saturday. Success driven by smoke and mirrors doesn’t usually last come playoff time. This holds especially true against an experienced team that has been dominant at home for years. Value is on the Seahawks in my opinion. Steelers +2.5 Prior to season’s start, I claimed the Jaguars were the AFC’s sleeper team, a legitimate top tier competitor and a team that would continually trade below intrinsic value. All three assumptions have held true. However, much like the Redskins, the Jaguars have become a team that has a full bandwagon, and that means its time for me to jump off. I will gladly take a playoff tested home team that has become out of favor and is getting points. There is no denying the Jaguars are the team playing better football, are healthier, and had the upper hand against their opponent less than a month ago. However, books compensated for such variables with the opening price, and line movement has magnified the issue. The Jaguars have the most underrated passing game in the league and a dominant running game. However, neither should be expected to have the upper hand against arguably the NFL’s best defense. If the Steelers can curtail the potency of the Jaguars running game, which they can easily do, the Jaguars may find trouble. Although Garrard has put forth a solid season, I question his ability to sustain his regular season play in his first playoff start, on the road, and against a complex defense. Much like the Jaguars, the Steelers are heavily dependent on their running game for success. Perception is the Jaguars have a dominant run defense, and the Steelers running game will suffer without Parker. However, perception may not be reality in this game. The Jaguars run defense is overrated, and their numbers masked by playing with big leads and against not many dominant running attacks. Although the depth and integrity of employing a multi style running attack is questioned with the absence of Parker, the expected decrease in efficiency in the Steelers running game is blown out of proportion. Davenport was more efficient, more consistent, and secured the ball better than Parker. He is also better suited to handle the physicality of the Jaguars defense. The Steelers passing game has gone downhill, but I will gladly back Ben when out of favor and expected to due poorly. Pittsburgh is a brutal place to play in come playoff time. Especially for an inexperienced team lead by an inexperienced quarterback. I have not problem backing the Steelers when they are out of favor and with their backs against the wall- as that is when they are at their best. The Jaguars had a great season, but is should come to an end Saturday Night.

Sunday Bucs -3 I have backed the Bucs more than any other team this season, and I will not stop now, as they continue to get value as a home playoff team. I have said it all season, the Bucs don’t have an explosive offense, but do have one of the most efficient and underrated units in the league. They take what defenses give you, are able to attack opponents weaknesses, are well balanced, and don’t make mistakes. Most of the public hasn’t grasped such a concept all season, and without having their starters on the field for two weeks, some have also forgotten such a concept. Most expect the Bucs passing game to stall Sunday. They think of the Giants pass rush and the lack of receiving threats in the Bucs passing game. However, I expect them to have success in the air, as they fundamentally match up well against an average Giants pass defense. The Giants secondary is suspect and lack an ideal candidate to match up with Galloway. Their superb pass rush can wreak havoc on most passing games, but the Bucs style can counter such strength. The Bucs are heavily dependent on short passes and passes to the running back, variables that automatically counter this Giants strength. Add the notion that the Giants have been one of the least effective teams in defending such a passing play, and I expect the Bucs to be just fine in the air. The Bucs running game is underrated and consistent. Their young line has performed well all season and could win the battle of the trenches in run blocking situations. I don’t expect a dominant running attack, but an effective enough one to provide balance to the Bucs offense. Manning is coming off his best game of the season and has been known to be highly streaky. However signs of a potential upward trend can quickly come to an end this week against a top notch pass defense like the Bucs. The complex looks and team speed can pose problems for Manning. With Barbers ability to counter Burress and the absence of Shockey, Manning may lack passing options. The Bucs run defense should also slowdown Jacobs, not giving the Giants any exploitable offensive edge. Weaknesses are magnified in the playoffs. This bodes well for a well balanced team who lacks a weakness like the Bucs. This does not hold true for the Giants who possess a suspect secondary and a highly inconsistent passing game. It looks like I will back the Bucs until I don’t have a choice to do so. In my opinion, I will have another opportunity next week to do such. Titans/Chargers Under 39.5 In their first match up I took the Under (and barely won). I see no reason not to do such again. I have said this for weeks, the Chargers improved play has predominately been due to the solid play of their defense, which has been flying under the radar due to the big names of their offensive players. The Chargers have the hottest and one of the top three defenses in the playoffs. On the other hand, the Titans are the worst playoff team offensively, and have been getting progressively worse. Young is more name than substance, and should have a reduced role, as the Titans are going to rely on their running game and defense to pull off the upset. This holds especially true with their best receiving option out for this game. Expect the Titans to run as much as possible and keep their passing playbook limited in order to prevent costly mistakes Young is prone to making and the Chargers are prone to creating. The Chargers biggest weakness is their run defense, which should allow the Titans some success to move the ball on the ground, but not enough to become detrimental to the Under. The decisive advantage the Chargers pass defense possesses should prevent the Titans offense from becoming multi dimensional, which therefore limit the points they put on the board. Expect a lot of drives stalled with punts and field goals, as the end zone might not be seen all day out of Titans offense. The Titans defense has not gotten the credit it was receiving at the beginning of the year. Although there has been somewhat of a drop-off in defensive productivity, it has mainly come due to games in which they were without Haynesworth, and not due to them playing at a level above their heads. Expect the Chargers to also rely on their running game and defense to win. Rivers still can not be trusted, especially going against a dominant pass defense that proved to have the upper hand against him in their first meeting. If the Chargers are going to find success, it will be against a mediocre run defense that will counter with stacked boxes and force Tomlinson to grind out yards. The Chargers may have successful drives, but it will come at the expense of clock time. This should be a defensive struggle and game of field position. I like the Under.

Saturday Seahawks +9 The Packers are not your typical 13-3 team, and one could argue there exists five AFC teams that are better than they are. However, throughout the year, books were also reluctant in giving the Packers too much credit, allowing them to be the most profitable team to bet on all season. Now come playoff time, there appears to be an over adjustment for a regular season hidden gem, as nine points is simply too many to lay on a team who has found regular season success with a lot of smoke and mirrors. Favre has received most of the credit for the Packers turnaround this season, as some argue a structural change in his play, as he has drastically improved limiting costly errors. However, one could argue that this improvement was a product of his environment, and getting to play arguably the softest schedule in the league when measured by quality pass defenses. In fact, Favre has not played a quality pass defense in nearly three months when he put forth a sub par game against the Redskins. This trend will come to an end this week when Favre goes up against the best pass defense he has faced in months, a defense known to force quarterbacks into mistakes. Don’t be surprised if Favre reverts back to his recent troubled past and makes costly mistakes. Without the decisive edge the Packers usually have in the air, they will have to rely on their suspect running game more in this one- a running game that is heavily dependent on the success of their passing game. As mentioned last week, the Seahawks have one of the most underrated run defenses in the league, dominated Portis last week, and should make it hard for the Packers to establish much on the ground this week. A lot of talk has been on how detrimental the weather may be on the Seahawks, but weather that can curtail any offensive production is also counterproductive to large favorites. Expect the Seahawks underrated defense to continue to find success while Favre may revert back to the last couple of years. During the season, I consistently mentioned that the Packers defense was not getting the credit they deserved for this year’s turnaround. Although this notion holds true, I also feel they have slowly regressed as the season progressed, a regression that has been masked by an incredibly soft schedule when measured by opponent’s offensive strengths in December. The Seahawks also have the luxury of avoiding the Packers best defensive asset- their run defense, as they are one of the most pass happy offenses in the league. The depth the Seahawks have at receiver (which gets deeper this week with the return of Branch) can allow them to avoid the top heaviness the Packers have at corner, and utilize multi receiver sets that take advantage of the lack of nickel back the Packers have. Experience may also be a factor in this game, as aside from Favre, the Packers don’t have much. There team is young, may take time to settle in, or allow their emotions to work against them. The Seahawks may be inferior when on the road, winning just three games all season away from home. However, they have lost just one road game all season by more than three points. Everyone appears to want a position on team that has covered more games than any other team this year, is consistently a heavily backed public team, and is well rested and playing at home. However, I will go the other way in this one, as the Packers smoke and mirror success and lacking and decisive advantages (expect them run defense) should keep this game closer than most think. Too many points for the Seahawks to pass up. Jaguars +13.5 I am not sure how you could give one of the best and hottest teams in the league nearly two touchdowns, but once again, the Patriots are overvalued and priced for perfection. The Patriots have been far from impressive of late, covering just one of their last six games. They have also not been blowing teams out as much as they were during the first half of the season, winning by 14 or more just three times during the second half of the season despite playing a soft second half schedule. The Jaguars have all the fundamental tools to keep this game relatively close, and the confidence and momentum to add support as well. The Patriots defense has shown weaknesses in recent weeks and is most vulnerable against the run. This bodes well for the Jaguars chances mainly for a couple of reasons. The obvious one being that they are heavily dependent on the run game, and have one of the most dominant running attacks in the league capable of exploiting any defensive weakness a team may have in their run stopping ability. The other two benefits are 1.) It negates the Belichick effect that can take its toll on young quarterbacks by limiting the role of Garrard. 2.) When the Jaguars have success on the ground, their drives are incredibly clock demanding, thus shortening games which can prove costly for a large favorite. Expect the Jaguars to find success on the ground, and wear down an aging front seven that has appeared to show their age in recent weeks. The Jaguars have a highly underrated passing attack that played below their potential last week. Expect a better effort this week from Garrard to compliment the running game. Being the best scrambler in the league will also allow him to negate the complex looks the Patriots will show him, and avoid costly errors. There is no denying the Patriots possessing the best offense in the league. However success they are used to may not come to fruition this week, as their strength is countered by the Jaguars strength, their pass defense. Teams are finding better ways to limit Moss’s productivity, and it first comes with having a physical and talented corner to match up with him- which the Jaguars have. The Jaguars biggest weakness on defense is their run defense. However, the Patriots reluctance to exploit this facet makes them less vulnerable, while a definitive attempt to exploit it is welcomed, as a heavy dose of running is not customary for such a large favorite. As I have been doing most of the year (unfortunately) I am going to bet against the best team in the league. The Jaguars running game should be the difference, as it will keep the Patriots offense of the field and give them fewer opportunities to establish a blowout. The Patriots should win, but will likely do so by a one possession score.

Sunday Chargers @ Colts Under 46 There has been a structural change in the Colts team that started late last season that has not been consistently reflected in their totals. Public perception still includes and anchoring bias on their defense being more vulnerable than they really are, which has periodically created value in their games when matches up against quality defenses in their own right. Simply put, these two defenses are too good to support a mid forty line. The Colts have one of the best and most underrated defenses in the league. They have possessed a dominant pass defense for a couple years now (which now may be the best in the league) and have drastically shored up their run defense. The Chargers offense is highly inconsistent and their weaknesses are magnified in the playoffs. With Gates most likely out and Rivers being undependable, the Chargers passing game will not find much productivity against this Colts pass defense. They will be heavily dependent on Tomlinson, who will consistently see 8 and 9 man boxes like last week. This should prevent domination from him and put him into more of a grind it out mode that takes a lot of time off the clock. The Chargers offense has played the role of bullies this year, running up scores against sub par defenses, while not being able to hold their own for the most part against the better defenses they were up against. This holds true during their first match up against the Colts, where their offense was dominated, but masked by the solid play of their defense. Don’t expect much this week from the Chargers offense, and success will come at the expense of clock time. The Chargers are the hottest defense in the league and have shown no signs of letup. More importantly it is a style defense that has always given Manning problems (3-4 that can put pressure on the quarterback) and handed Manning his worst performance of his career two months ago. The Colts may be the only pass defense in the league better than the one the Chargers possess. Although a repeat performance out of Manning is highly improbable, expect once again for the Chargers ability to put pressure on the quarterback and now possessing two solid corners to pose problems for the Colts passing game and encourage them to be more dependent on the running game. The Colts should find some success on the ground, but like the Chargers, that success will come at the expense of clock time. Although the Chargers eight game streak of allowing 17 or less points should come to an end, a typical Colts offensive showing is not likely. Rarely do you see two elite pass defenses supported by a mid 40’s total. Almost every time, value exists on the Under when such a predicament occurs. Offense success for both teams will probably come on the ground, allowing clock time to make it hard for a high scoring game to occur. I like the Under. Giants @ Cowboys Under 47 It is only natural for a total to be inflated in a match up that has occurred already twice this season, and resulted in a 80 points showdown followed by a 51 point game. I will not pass up this opportunity to bet against an inflated line for a variety of reasons. There has always been a saying in the NFL that it is hard to beat a team three times. This is not because of the underlying probability of accomplish such a task, but the underlying fundamentals behind it. Mainly, teams have a hard time establishing new game plans, as weaknesses exploited in the first two meetings are worked on, fixed, while teams are most familiar with what to expect and what went wrong. With weaknesses in the first two meetings predominantly coming on defense, expect both defensive units to shore up these deficiencies and find another avenue to exploit. The Cowboys offense has seriously regressed since the first two meetings. Romo is not playing at the same level, while the injury to Owens can prove costly, as not only is production limited, but it should force Whitten and Crayton into more double coverage’s and limit their production. The Giants defensive line continues to get progressively better as well, making me think Romo will not have the time in the pocket that he received in their first two meetings. All this leads me to believe a heavier reliance on the running game is in the cards for the Cowboys this week, and fewer risks will be taken in the passing game. This will force the Cowboys to chip away at the field instead of moving the ball in big chunks in their first two meetings. Manning is clearly establishing an upward trend, but if people have not learned by now, this level of play is never sustainable for Eli. Sunday is a good time for a drop off in productivity, as he faces a team heavily familiar with his weaknesses, and possesses the ideal pass rush and solid corners to give Manning and the Giants passing game problems. The return of Jacobs has changed the Giants into a more power offense, a change that will more than likely continue this week, as it will be up against the Cowboys least poignant defensive strength. When the Giants do have success on offense, much like the Jaguars, it comes at the expense of a lot of clock time. With the edge the Cowboys have in defending the pass, the Giants may become one dimensional and have problems finding the end zone. The result should be a drop-off in points compared to their first two meetings against the Cowboys. Expect both defenses to shore up the weaknesses that occurred in their first two meetings that lead to two Overs. Combine this with the regression of Romo, injury to Owens, improved play of the Giants defense, and inconsistencies of Manning, and this game should not be as high scoring as the line indicates. I like the Under.

Chargers +14 I know I am starting to sound like a broken record, but once again an inflated price tag is accompanying the Patriots. Rarely do you see a team playing as well as the Chargers getting two touchdowns in compensation for betting on them. They have covered and won six straight games and have shown so signs of slowdown. What is more rare is the notion that a team is getting 14 points, but arguably has the better running game and defense. But that’s what happens when a team’s bandwagon is as full as what the Patriots one has become. When a team’s bandwagon becomes full, they become priced for perfection (not the perfection of winning every game, rather bringing their “A” game to the field each time out). Any signs of a slowdown or playing below potential, and the inflated line are too much for any team to support. This is what has happened to the Patriots as their defense has regressed, leading to a 1-6 ATS in their last seven games heading into this game. Until linesmakers stop inflating their line in anticipation for a heavy following, I will continue to bet against them. There is no other team I would rather back going up against the Patriots than a team playing with as much confidence and double revenge on their mind. Even with an injured Gates, and a less than 100 percent Rivers and Tomlinson, the Chargers can find success offensively Sunday. The Patriots defense has shown inconsistency in defending the running game. Their aging linebacking group has regressed in recent weeks and could have trouble with the athleticism and perimeter attack Tomlinson can establish. With Rivers getting better each week, he has been able to exploit an underrated group of receiving options that could allow the Chargers to establish a balanced attack. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers find more success offensively than expected. The Patriots defense is overrated, regressing, has problems masked by their offense, and has yet to dominate a solid offense in over two months. There is not a defense in the league that I could say I like my chances against the Patriots offense. But there aren’t many defenses I would rather have matched up against them than the Chargers. Brady has shown the ability to be productive against blitzes and when teams rush only three of four. What he has shown a problem with is when opponents disrupt the pocket interiorly with the rush. There may not be a better pass rush in the league in making such happen. With the Chargers secondary playing at an elite level, expect this style of pass rush to curtail the Patriots passing game, and make them less productive compared to recent weeks. Although stopping the Patriots from moving the chains is near impossible, the Chargers having the best red zone defense in the league can prevent their drives from consistently ending in touchdowns, which significantly jeopardizes such a high spread from covering. The Patriots are not the most fun team to bet against, but getting two touchdowns for betting on a team playing as well as the Chargers is simply too good to pass up. Expect their confidence, motivation for revenge and fundamental strengths to be enough to keep this one close and prevent the Patriots from running away with the game. Chargers @ Patriots Under 47 Good value on the Under in this game, and is also a decent hedge for the health concerns of the Chargers three key players. If the Chargers want to have success offensively they are going to have to heavily rely on their running game, as expect Rivers and/or Volek to repeat last weeks performance may be wishful thinking. The Patriots defense has regressed, but can defend the pass well. The Chargers passing game is simply not strong enough or consistent enough to expect them to have the upper hand, or anything but complimentary to their running game. Much like the Chargers defense, the Patriots are stingy in the red zone. Expect the majority of the Chargers better drives to end with field goals. The Patriots may have to rely more on the running game again this week, as the Chargers pass defense is playing as well as any in the league the last couple of months, and possess the strengths that have given Brady problems in the second half of the season. The Patriots have been Over machines predominantly because of the tempo their offense and ability to finish off their better drives with touchdowns at a high clip. With an expected slowdown in both facets (more reliance on their running game and matched up against the top red zone defense), the Patriots will have hard time matching their mean points in this game. I like Under.

Here are the Over/Under futures I have (or plan to place) place prior to season’s start. Although most bets have yet to be placed in anticipation of better prices, they are certain to be placed, as they are trading well below intrinsic value. I may add more plays at a later date. National League 1. Braves Over 86 -105 Comment: Although on paper, the Braves have not improved much, they should accomplish a sizable jump off an 84 win total last season. In my opinion, the Braves may be the most underrated team in the NL, and a top three contender in the league. With a lot of hidden free agents in the likes of Mike Gonzalez (only 18 games last year), Texeria (only 54 games for the Braves), and replacing Soriano for Wickman in the closer role from the onset, provides a lot of hidden value on this team. The Braves possess a very underrated bullpen, and a deep pitching staff and deep lineup necessary to prevent prolong losing streaks. The market is discounting wins from this team in exchange for inflating the totals on the Mets and Phillies. 2. Brewers Over 84 -110 Comment: The Brewers have a makeup of a “sexy” team that is usually accompanied by an inflated line. However, their huge drop-off late last season prevented them from bypassing the 84 win clip they should bypass this year. Despite having a lot of hitters coming off career years, these players possess youth and upside potential that should prevent a letdown season. Sizable improvements from Bush, Weeks, and Capuano should add some wins, while key free agent signings to shore up bullpen concerns provides balance to this team. In my opinion, the Brewers are the best team in their division, yet are being overshadowed the perennial high expectation teams like the Cubs. 3.) Nats Over 71.5 -110 Comment: Believe it or not, I feel that the Nationals are better than 3 to 5 teams in the NL on paper, yet are being priced as if they were only better than two. The other good news is the notion that they are a team that plays better than they do on paper. They are a team that constantly gets swept under the rug as they lack any big name sluggers or anything remotely close to a potent line. However, that is something I have not overlooked (valuing them as the second worst lineup in the NL). What the market has not discounted aside from their gritty play not customary for a cellar team is their above average bullpen and pitching staff that should improve off of last year. 73 wins was their total last year. In my opinion, they will at least match that this year. 4. Cubs Under 87.5 -110 Comment: Rarely will you see the Cubs potential not fully quantified in the market place. This year appears to be no exception, being priced higher than all but two teams in the NL. The Cubs have a good lineup, good bullpen, and good pitching staff. However, good does not cut 88 plus wins. The sub par backend of the rotation and closer question marks is not customary for a team with such high expectations. Like most free agents from Japan, the addition of Fukodome is more hype than substance, and will not go unnoticed in the marketplace. 5. DBacks Under 86.5 -105 Comment: In my opinion, the DBacks are the 4th best team in their division, yet are being priced as if they were second to only the Dodgers. The Dodgers, Padres and Rockies are all carrying small value on their Over win expectancy, which appears to be a conglomeration of the overvalued status of the DBacks. Their pitching staff is very solid, but is very ordinary in the NL West. Webb and Haren is a solid 1-2 punch, but both should drop-off from last year’s numbers. Johnson and Davis are well past their prime, and the high standard deviation of expected returns in their pitching staff should provide for streaks good and bad. The talent pool in the NL West has increased substantially this year- making it an attractive division for an Under play or two. The Dbacks appear to be the most intriguing opportunity for such an approach. 6.) Phillies Under 88 -125 Comment: In my opinion, the Phillies are the most overvalued future in the NL this year. This is not much of a surprise, as teams possessing elite lineups usually have high expectations early in the season. However, it is a lineup filled with players prone for a drop-off- players that played integral roles in their team’s success last year. Their pitching staff is well below average, and lacks depth. Their bullpen appears solid on paper, but has many concerns. These team went on a late season tear, and beat up on the NL East last year, to squeak by the 88 win clip. The improved East should take wins off their 42-30 division record, and a late season collapse from the Mets will more than likely not be repeated. 7.) Reds Under 76 -115 Comment: Here is another team with the public perception of a potent lineup carrying high expectations early in the season. However, even with this team overachieving last season, it didn’t get terribly close to a 76 win mark. They did nothing in the off season to see improvement much improvement. Their lineup is overrated, and actually slightly below average. A drop-off out of Griffey, Gonzalez and Phillips combined with the absence of Hamilton leaves questions to be answered. Their bullpen is below average even with the addition of Cordero, while their pitching staff is the worst in a weak division. This team should remain in the low 70 win total mark this year.

American League 1.) A’s Over 74 -115 Comment: In my opinion, this team is a steal at this price, even if they do trade Blanton. With big names leaving the roster in the likes of Haren, Piazza and Swisher, and not being replaced by any noticeable names in the free agent market, the market is expecting a drop-off from their 76 win mark last year. However, a healthy Harden and Dushseshser shore up a very underrated pitching staff. The return of Street and Foulke, and expected improvement from Calero give the A’s a solid bullpen to compliment their pitching staff. Their lineup is not potent, but more effective than they appear on paper. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team finished above .500 2.) Twins Over 73.5 -115 Comment: Here is another team in which the market over discounted the departures of big name players from their team. Even without Santana, the Twins possess a decent group of young pitchers that could surprise the division. Backed by the best bullpen in the AL and a lineup that has never been accustomed to carrying the team, and it is hard to imagine the Twins witnessing a drastic drop-off from their underachieving season last year. The Twins added some decent free agent signings that add some depth to a to a line that has been weak in the backend. 3.) Devil Rays Over 72 -115 Comment: Although the Devil Rays may be the “sexy” pick early on, this team still may be underrated due to having two big name teams in their division. The Devil Rays problem has always possessed such an inferior bullpen, a deficiency that has been drastically shored up this year (although they still have a below average pen). The Kazmir/Shields combo is very solid, while Garza provides a lot of upside as well. Their lineup has always flown under the radar due to their pitching woes, and this strength should pay more dividends this year. According to my early season power ratings, there is from 3 to five teams worse than the Rays, yet they are priced as if there were only two. 4.) Red Sox Under 94-115 Comment: I paid the price for constantly fading the Red Sox last year, but will have no problem doing it this year if the market presents that opportunity. It appears early on as if they will, as they are priced as if they are the best team in the league-something they no longer are this year. The high standard deviation in their pitching staff, and a bullpen that overachieved last year, should prevent their pitching from being as dominant as they were last year. Their aging lineup is still very solid, but simply overvalued. The Yankees are the best team in their division, while the Angels and Tigers are arguably better as well. 5.) White Sox Under 76 -115 Comment: At first blush, it appeared the White Sox did enough shoring up in their bullpen and adding some hitters to fill holes that were detrimental to their success last year. However, their starting pitching staff is still too weak, and should offset improvements in other facets of this team. This team has stockpiled aging players past their prime in their lineup, bullpen and starting staff, and plays in a division with four teams better than they are. The team underachieved last year at 72. However, being one year older and still having holes, 76 should be hard fro them to bypass. 6.) Mariners Under 85.5 -115 Comment: Last year, the Mariners were one of the teams I bet on the most, as they constantly traded below their intrinsic value until their prolonged winning streak got fully noticed in the market place. However, this team appears to be the most overvalued in this years future market. This team overachieved last year, and added the most hyped free agent in the marketplace in the off season. The Mariners have a top heavy rotation and a top heavy bullpen, which is usually the recipe to an overvaluation. They are no exception. Add an overrated lineup that should rank near the bottom of the league, and we start dealing with a very mediocre team.