MLB 2007

Rockies @ Padres Play: Rockies +180 Intrinsic Value: +132 Consider Betting Price: +158 Comment: It doesn’t matter who is pitching, the Rockies are a dangerous team to lay this many basis points against, as they have the much better lineup in this game. There is no denying that Peavy is a much better pitcher than Wells, and is primed for a breakout year after last year’s disappointment. However, in my opinion, he is actually a better match up for the Rockies lineup than Wells, as his power pitching compliments the Rockies hitters. Peavy was dominated by the Rockies last year, and has had a lot of trouble pitching to more than half the lineup, including two key off season additions. The most underrated 3-5 lineup in baseball has a good spot to showcase their talent, as they come into this game 12 for 27 against Peavy, while the Rockies role players in front and behind them have had success against him as well. Peavy for some reason has never had success pitching during day games, and last year was actually one of the worst day game pitchers in baseball, generating a five plus ERA in those situations. He has now produced a large enough sample and disparity to make me feel that holds substance. The ballpark will be much more live during the day, which will not curtail the effects of the Rockies more potent lineup like last night. Cook is not one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he is consistently one of the most undervalued. He is consistently getting better, and might surprise a few people this year. He has one of the better sinkerballs in the league, which is a pitch that has the propensity to be more effective during the day for a couple of reasons. It has shown in his stats. Although he has been known to struggle against left handed hitters and is up against his fair share in today’s ballgame, Cook seems to know how to pitch to this Padres lineup, having dominated them for two straight years now. The Padres have one of the more inferior lineups in the league, especially when playing at home, making them a dangerous bet when accompanied with this type of price tag. The Rockies have a greater chance of losing this game than winning, but have a greater chance of winning this game than the market price reflects in my opinion.

Red Sox @ Rangers Play: Rangers +125 Intrinsic Value: -108 Consider Betting Price: +107 Comment: Padilla always makes for a dangerous bet. When he has a bad start, it gets ugly fast. However, he makes for a compelling bet more times than not as a home underdog, as when he has his stuff working for him that particular game, he can be dominant. Padilla is always more dangerous when focused, and is always more focused coming off a bad start and pitching against good teams. He has both variables working in his favor in this game, along with pitching on national television. Last year, he handled the Red Sox bats well, putting forth two solid starts against them. He has the propensity to struggle against left handed hitters, which might not be a problem for him in this game, as the Red Sox don’t really have more than one threat from the left side. He has dominated the likes of Lowell and Ramirez. I said prior to season’s start that the Rangers have one of the most overrated lineup in baseball, but a lineup that is even more overrated is the Red Sox one. They have shown that to be the case so far year to date. They are especially overrated on the road, where they have consistently been much less effective each year. Schilling is being priced by name, not ability in this one. Don’t expect him to have that great of a year, and is already off to a slow start by getting manhandled by the Royals on opening day. A left handed dominated lineup might be too much for Schilling, who is less effective against these types of hitters as he ages. There are a few role players that will be in the lineup that he has struggled against, including two new additions, Cattelano and Sosa. Much like the Red Sox, the Rangers bats started the season slow. Much like the Red Sox, the Rangers bats are much more potent at home and built for this park. It is no surprise that they came alive last night. Once Schilling leaves, the Red Sox do not have an ideal candidate to follow him prior to the 9th. A bit too much value on the Rangers to pass up.

Mets @ Braves Play: Braves +136 Intrinsic Value: +116 Consider Betting Price: +132 Comment: As expected, with their home opener 24 hours away, the Mets elected to rest one influential player in their lineup with Lo Ducca. Hernandez is now getting a bit too much respect my books after his first start of the season being dominant. Today he has a tougher challenged, as he faces a more talented lineup than the Cardinals and a more dangerous lineup from the left side. He has struggled throughout his career against left handed hitters and is getting progressively less effective against them. Today he deals with five, which is really rare. Without Mota, Sanchez and Padilla, the Mets bullpen is not much better than their counterparts. I am well aware of Davies problems, but that is fully reflected in the market price and them some. He still has a lot of upside potential, and has handled the Mets relatively well, and has had the upper hand against Delgado and Beltran. Lo Ducca’s loss will be even more missed, as he has hit Davies hard in the past. He is a right hander that has actually been a bit more effective pitcher to left handed hitters compared to right, which is key going up against the Mets lineup. He will be on a short leash and is backed by an underrated bullpen.

Phillies @ Mets Play: Mets -124 Intrinsic Value: -157 Consider Betting Price: -144 Comment: One of the streakiest teams in baseball the lat couple of years were the Phillies. Their propensity to be cyclical in nature forced them to be dead money fro prolonged periods of time. last year, they started the season slow out of the gates, playing well below their potential, and it looks like the same thing is happening once again this year, having one just one of their first six games. I am not sure if Maine can replicate last season, but if his first start was any indication, he has a chance to do such. His nice movement on all his pitches makes him really hard to hit, as opponents barely batted over .200 against him last year. The Phillies are loaded from the left side, giving them a good chance to wear down any right handed starter, but Maine has actually been really effective so far in his career against left handed hitters. This has allowed him to dominate the Phillies in the past, as he comes into today’s game with a 1.96 ERA against them. The Phillies have a potent lineup, but not terribly effective in manufacturing runs. Their style of hitting is not complimented by the Mets ballpark. The Mets still have a solid bullpen, giving them the advantage in the later innings. Hammels is one of the more promising young southpaws in baseball. The disparity between his fastball and changeup can be overwhelming for hitters. He is really difficult to hit for left handed bats, which may give him a good chance to pitch a solid game against this left handed heavy lineup. However, this is a game in which I feel that the Mets will not have to score a lot of runs to win. There exist a few favorable variables as well. Hammels does not seem as comfortable pitching on the road, which is common for a lot of young pitchers. His pitches have also been known to be easier to pick up during the day, allowing hitters to better time him. It is no surprise that he comes into today’s game with a career 6.00 day game ERA, a far cry from his sub three night ERA. The Mets have seen him in the past, allowing them to know what to expect from this tough lefty. He lacks the ideal stamina to go deep into games, and the Mets lineup is designed to take a lot of pitches. He is backed by a suspect bullpen that has struggled against the Mets in the past. The Mets have the advantage in the later innings. Rockies @ Dodgers Play: Dodgers -144 Intrinsic Value:-160 Consider Betting Price: -146 Comment: This may be a tough match up for this dangerous and underrated Rockies lineup. Schmidt is one of the harder pitchers in the league to hit, especially early in the season when his arm is much stronger and less prone to the dead arm he has gotten in the past. His problem has been his lack of control and being prone to walk a lot of hitters, something that should be helped out by the Rockies lack of patience at the plate. Schmidt has always been a more effective pitcher at home, except when he was pitching in Dodgers Stadium as a road pitcher, as he has always had success in this park. Outside of Coors field, he has dominated the Rockies hitters as much as any pitcher in the league. He has had past success against a few of their key hitters. The Rockies young lineup feeds off of momentum, something that has stalled the last couple of days. They are also a team much more dangerous when hitting at home. Schmidt is backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, which should make it hard for the Rockies to score throughout this game. I am big on Francis, as he is a young lefty who has a lot of upside potential. However, he is yet another young pitcher that has yet to show any consistency when pitching on the road. Although he has had past success against the Dodgers, this lineup is built to wear down left handed pitchers. He has not had much success against any of the hitters that he has faced, and has actually had problems with a couple of their hitters, including new addition Pierre. The Dodgers are coming into their home opener with a lot of momentum after coming off a sweep against their hated rivals. The Rockies on the other hand are coming off two heart breaking road losses in a row, which could take its toll on a young team not knowing where they stand. The Rockies bullpen is not as talented as last year, and has really been a problem so far this season. Hopefully for Dodgers bettors, Hawkins will pitch in this game. Brewers @ Marlins Play: Marlins -118 Intrinsic Value: -150 Consider Betting Price: -137 Comment: The Rockies are not the only young lineup that is flying under the radar, as the Marlins actually have one of the most dangerous lineups in the National League. They showed this to be the case to start of the season, as they have young talent from both sides of the plate. Today they get a chance to continue their hot streak against an overrated pitcher prone for a letdown year. Last year, Suppan was the worst road pitcher in baseball for most of the year, allowing almost a run an inning for nearly half of the season. He finished out the year with a road ERA well over 5. Although his finesse style of pitching can be effective against a young aggressive lineup like the Marlins, the only hitter with more than ten at bats against him, Cabrera, has had hit him well. Suppan is a pitcher that prefers to pitch to batters in which he has a past history against, which is not much of the case with this Marlins lineup. He is backed by a bullpen that has not looked terribly effective on the mound, and is coming off an emotional roller coaster home game yesterday. The Marlins are yet another young team that feeds off of emotion, and they got a huge confidence boost after performing in the fashion that they did the last couple of games. It is no surprise that Sanchez pitched a no hitter last year. He has no hit stuff, and could be one of the more dominant pitchers in baseball, if he could locate his pitches better. He is one of the harder pitchers to hit, but has been plagued by a high walk total. This deficiency should be helped out by pitching to the least patient lineup in the league today. It is no surprise that Sanchez has dominated the Brewers in both his starts against them, as their free swinging style of hitting falls right into Sanchez’s style of pitching. Sanchez has been extremely dominant in his home starts so far in his career, as he comes into today’s game with a career home ERA of 2.62, while opponent are hitting just .184 against him. The Brewers lineup is much less potent away from their home park.

Royals @ Blue Jays Play: Blue Jays -198 Intrinsic Value: -245 Consider Betting Price: -212 Comment: I have not derived a higher intrinsic value on any team so far this season. Perez might be in for a long day in this one. Their might not be another team in baseball more dangerous against left handed pitching than the one he will have to face in this game. There also might not be another lineup in baseball more dangerous in their home park than the Blue Jays. Put these factors together and combine it with the notion that Perez has had one of the higher disparities of home/away numbers throughout his career, and the Blue Jays have a chance to do some real damage. Perez did not look effective in his first start, as the Red Sox were really on his pitches. The Blue Jays appear to be seeing the ball really well right now, as they followed off that impressive late inning surge against the Tigers with three solid hitting performances against the Devil Rays. The Royals bullpen is mess, and they proved yesterday that the loss of Dotel is a bigger problem than most people think. I like betting on Burnett in a bounce back situation, as he proved to be an effective pitcher in the past in this spot. Last time he allowed six runs in one game, he followed it up with a dominating road start, where he went the distance and allowed just one run. No matter what team he has played for, he has been much more effective when pitching at home. His style of pitching can really be effective against this young lineup as well, as he rarely goes in the strike zone, and the Royals lack the ideal patience to take advantage of that. Home field advantage is magnified in this game, as both teams are much better in front of their home crowds. The Royals may be prone to a letdown in this game, after losing in the fashion that they did yesterday at home. Young teams have a propensity to get up for a road game after playing home series against solid teams. The Blue Jays bullpen is better than their counterparts, and Ryan got a much needed day off yesterday. Reds @ Diamondbacks Play: Diamondbacks -104 Intrinsic Value: -124 Consider Betting Price: -110 Comment: It appears that a definite theme is occurring today, as young teams and home openers are flooded in today’s card. The Diamondbacks are yet another team with a high productivity disparity between home and away compared to the league average, and their young team should be filled with emotion in their home opener. Arroyo pitched better than his numbers in his first start, but I steel feel that he is prone to a letdown season as the National League knows him much better. Last year he was not terribly effective on the road, and struggled against the Diamondbacks, who threw a lot of left handed hitters against him. Arroyo has not been effective against left handed bats, especially last year, where he allowed home runs at an astonishing rate against them. This should be a huge concern for him in this game, as this park is built to allow home runs to left handed hitters. Even though the Diamondbacks are not as dangerous from the left side compared to years past, they will more than likely throw four left handed hitters at him today. The Reds bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, giving the Diamondbacks hitters favorable match ups throughout this game. Davis showed that last year may be an anomaly in his first start this season. Today he has a good spot to put forth two solid outings in a row to kick off the new year, as he is up against a lineup whose best hitters bat from the left side. Davis has always been a much less effective pitcher on the road, which may lead you to believe that he struggled pitching in this park as a road pitcher. But he has actually had success here in the past, as this park is built for left handed hitters, allowing southpaw pitchers to curtail that effect. He has pitched the Reds really well in the past, and has downright dominated Griffey and Dunn throughout his career. Although he is backed by a sub par bullpen, this is one of the few series in which the Diamondbacks have the bullpen edge.

Yankees @ Twins Play: Twins +125 Intrinsic Value: +104 Consider Betting Price: +121 Comment: Although they are not coming with as much value as they are on Tuesday, the Twins are coming with enough value to warrant a play in my opinion. The Yankees are simply not playing well enough to warrant this much respect by linesmakers. Pavano just isn’t the pitcher he once was. Injuries, deprecating mechanics, velocity and confidence has made him a much less effective pitcher, and it might take some time for him to regain what he has lost. He struggled in his first start, and is prone to struggling in this one as well. He has always struggled throughout his career pitching on the road, and especially struggles when pitching in parks for the first time, which will be the case for him in this game. He has also been prone to get worn down by left handed hitters, especially now because of the decrease in velocity. This does not bode well for his chances in this game, as the Twins two best hitters bat from the left side. Torre is sooner or latter going to make a sacrificial lamb out of one of his struggling pitchers, as his bullpen has been overworked of late. It might just be Pavano. This also does not bode well for him, as he is prone to wear down late in games. He is backed by a struggling bullpen, which should give the Twins the advantage in the later innings. The Twins are a much more dangerous hitting lineup when playing in their home park. I am not a big fan of betting on Ponson, nor am I a big fan of betting against the best lineup in baseball. However, this mismatch is fully reflected in the line, and then some, as it does not reflect the potential favorable situational spot for Ponson. Ponson is always at his best when pitching with a chip on his shoulder, and that will be the case as he is up against his former team. The Yankees are not swinging the bat well, and might struggle in this game as well. ARod is the only hot hitter in the lineup, and is the hitter that has struggled most against Ponson in the past, as he is batting below .200 against him in over 60 at bats. Ponson has been known to struggle against left handed hitters, and although the Yankees are still dangerous from the left side, they are nowhere near as dangerous with both Damon and Matsui not in the lineup. Most importantly, the Twins will have a short leash on Ponson. Not only is the Twins backend bullpen the best baseball, but they have the deepest one as well.

Royals @ Blue Jays Play: Blue Jays -134 Intrinsic Value: -217 Consider Betting Price: -195 Comment: No way do I expect linesmakers to lay 200 on the Blue Jays with Towers on the mound, but that is the embedded value they are coming with in this game. There has been a lot of talk about Grienke and his battle with these psychological problems. Many have been claiming that once he works out those issues, he has a bright future ahead of him, as he has the pitching arsenal to become a dominant pitcher. Although that may be true, one good start is not enough to make me think he has overcome his issues just yet. Tuesday will be a real test, as he is now forced to pitch on the road, where he has always been known to struggle. He supports a mid five career road ERA, and was overmatched in the past by the blue Jays lineup. Although he put up good numbers against the Red Sox, he got in a lot of early inning jams and got dominated by the right handed bats that he faced. This may be a problem going into this game, as he is up against one of the most dominant lineups in baseball from the right side. Even if he does pitch well, his stamina is lacking, and is backed by a horrible bullpen that should once again be overmatched by their opponent’s lineup. The Blue Jays lineup is seeing the ball as well as any other team right now, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish out the season with the best home numbers at the plate compared to any team in the league. Towers is another pitcher with a talented arm, but just fell apart last year as well. A couple of year’s back he showed what his solid command can do, as he put up an ERA well under 4. His solid spring gives the Blue Jays hope that he may regain what he once had. This is a good spot for him to pitch a good game and stay on the rotation, as his finesse style of pitching is exactly what you want going up against this young and over aggressive Royals lineup. He has dominated the Royals in the past in the limited innings of work. The Blue Jays having relief pitchers that eat up multiple innings at a time will allow them to put a short leash on Towers if he once again becomes hittable. The Royals bats have not looked good at the plate of late, and have never been known to hit the ball well on the road. Their young players are not seeing the ball well, including highly touted Gordon, who is one for his last 22. Devil Rays @ Rangers Play: Devil Rays +140 Intrinsic Value: -118 Consider Betting Price: -104 Comment: No way do I expect linesmakers to make the Devil Rays favorite on the road here, but they possess a lot of hidden value. Over the last seven years, there might not be a worse home pitcher in baseball compared to Wright. His home woes were originally blamed on having to pitch at Coors, but being a sinkerball pitcher, I was suspect from the beginning. However, no matter what team he pitched for, he was decisively worse at home, including last year when pitching in a pitchers park for the Giants. His career home ERA is over six and Whip over 1.70. There definitely exists a mental deficiency prohibiting him from pitching well at home, and I am not expecting anything to change now with yet another new team. He has also been known to start seasons off slow, and has not held runners on terribly well in recent years, which could be a problem going up against this Devil Rays ball club. The lack of talent and depth in the Rangers lineup should allow the underrated Devil Rays lineup to have scoring opportunities throughout this game. Although the Devil Rays are much less potent hitting on the road, they seem to like playing in this park. Seo is definitely not the best pitcher on the Devil Rays, but I would not be surprised to see him put forth the best road numbers out of any pitcher on the club, as both their two young pitching prospects have not shown any consistency during their road starts. He is actually one of the few pitchers in the league that has shown to be more effective during his road starts. Being a right handed pitcher can spell disaster when pitching against this Rangers lineup in this park. But Seo is actually a pitcher that is more effective against left handed hitters. He has pitched this team well in his only start against them. Although the Rangers bats showed promise on Monday, it is an overrated lineup that is not seeing the ball well. Their catalyst in their lineup is Young, and he just doesn’t seem ready to play right now. Without him hitting well, the Rangers lack a situational hitter in the lineup. Yankees @ Twins Play: Twins +130 Intrinsic Value: -123 Consider Betting Price: -109 Comment: Although I got burned on the Twins on Monday, I have no problem going right back on them when getting this much value at home. Pettite may be in the midst of his second straight season in which he starts out the season slow, as he just did not look sharp at all against the Orioles. Pettite is a lefty pitcher that has actually struggled more pitching to left handed hitters throughout his career, which may be a problem against this Twins lineup. The Twins bats are prone to getting overpowered but their patience at the plate can wear down a finesse pitcher like Petttite, who lacks the ideal stuff when forced to come into the strike zone. He is also a pitcher who is much more effective when pitching against lineups that he has a deep past history against, which is not something he will have against this young lineup. The Yankees bullpen is still suspect, and Pettite is not a candidate to go deep into games this early in the season. I am not sure why Bonser continues to get disrespected by books, but this guy closed out last season putting up seven quality starts in his last nine, and started this season where he left off last with yet another quality start. He has shown a propensity to pitch more comfortably at home, and has pitched left handers well in his young career, which is key going up against this Yankees lineup. Being backed by the best bullpen in baseball will put pressure on the Yankees to score off Bonser, but not having allowed more than three runs in any game in his last twelve starts, and they might have a difficult time doing such.

Red @ Diamondbacks Play: Diamondbacks -122 Intrinsic Value: -137 Consider Betting Price: -124 Comment: There might not be a team that needs to feed off of emotion and confidence this year more than the Diamondbacks. They are as young as they get, and could get dangerous with momentum backing them. That is exactly what they have going for them right now, as they have started the season with a six and two record, and got a confidence boosting win last night in their home opener. Today they get to face a feast for famine pitcher who pitched much less effectively than his stats would lead one to believe in his first start, as he allowed ten hits in that game. He is not an ideal match up in this game going up against a young lineup, as his propensity to try to overpower hitters has backfired against the types of lineups the Dbacks possess. He has also struggled against left handed hitters throughout his career, which is not a deficiency you want going up against this lineup in this park. Left handed hitters have bat almost .300 against him throughout his career, and the Dbacks may through five or six (Young will more than likely be out for this game) left handed hitters at him tonight. Lohse has never been an effective road pitcher either, supporting a career road ERA near five. He is also not backed by the ideal bullpen that compliments his style like he was with the Twins. He wears down after five innings, which forces the bullpen to play a big role in his games. The Reds have one of the worst bullpens in baseball, and lack an ideal lefty to go up against this lineup prior to the 9th inning. Although Gonzalez may be a risky bet, especially this early in the season, I don’t mind taking my chances at him at this short price at home. He is more of a finesse pitcher, which is ideal against this Reds lineup that is better suited going up against power pitchers. Although he has the propensity to get overpowered by left handed hitters, the Reds lack depth from the left side, and Dunn is the only left handed hitter on the Reds swinging the bat well. The Reds lineup is overrated, and proved once again last night that they lack the situational hitting to manufacture runs, and need to rely on the long ball to produce runs. This is much harder for them to do outside their home park where the ball flies out. Giants @ Padres Play: Padres -124 Intrinsic Value: -170 Consider Betting Price: -156 Comment: There is not a lineup in the league more pathetic than the one that the Giants have showcased so far this season. They once again were dominated last night, and could not manage to get a win when their pitching allowed just two hits and one run. Today they get to face the only pitcher that they scored a decent amount of runs against, and the only pitcher they have beaten this season. However, in reality, Hensley also dominated this lineup, and if it weren’t for a big inning in which Hensley was consistently squeezed by the home plate umpire, he would have allowed just one run to this team as well. Hensley is also is one of young pitchers with a lot of upside, but often times gets overlooked by the bigger touted young pitching prospects in the league. But he has quietly put forth a 3.42 career ERA and has been hard to get hits off of. Prior to last week, he has dominated the Giants, especially when he has pitched against them in this park, where he has gone 12 innings without allowing a run. He has been dominant throughout his career during his home starts, as he comes into today’s game with a career home ERA of 3, and has allowed just seven home runs in this park in 120 innings of work. He overpowers right handed bats, but could struggle against the left handers he has faced. However, he has had past success against the left handed hitters on the Giants, including Bonds, who has just one hit in nine at bats. Being backed by the best bullpen in the National League, who happens to be pitching better than any other bullpen right now, leads me to believe that the Giants will yet again struggle to score runs. Don’t let last start fool you. Morris is well past his prime, and is prone to yet another disappointing season. He has been getting progressively worse in four straight seasons, and was manhandled in spring. Although he pitched well against the Padres last week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle more this time around. Morris has had one of the higher disparities of home and away numbers throughout his career compared to most veteran pitchers. This is more than an anomaly, as he appears to be getting progressively worse in his road starts as he ages, and actually put forth a road ERA in the mid 5’s last year. There is also no other lineup putting pressure on their starting pitcher than the Giants, as you could see by the way they have been pitching that they feel compelled to pitch a no hitter. Although it worked last night with Cain, it was quite evident it messed up Zito the day prior. There are a few veteran hitters on the Padres that have had past success against Morris. Morris is also backed by a sub par bullpen, which should give the Padres an advantage in the later innings.

Rockies @ Dodgers Play: Dodgers -124 Intrinsic Value: -207 Consider Betting Price: -187 Comment: I wasn’t expecting the linesmakers to open this line any different than what they did, but there exists a lot of hidden value on the Dodgers in my opinion. Don’t let Lopez’s last start fool you; this guy is one of the worst starters in the league. It just so happened that he was facing a lineup that was tailor made for his pitching style, as the Diamondbacks gave him the young and aggressive lineup that he needs to face to be effective. He will have to face the exact opposite in today’s game, as he is up against one of the oldest and most patient lineups in the league, which should force Lopez to have to come into the strike zone. This is the situations in which he has struggled in recent years, as he simply lacks the pitches to get hitters out when challenging them. Lopez has always struggled pitching on the road, and has struggled against the two hitters on the Dodgers who have past experience against him. The Rockies lack the depth in the bullpen that they had last year, which should allow the Dodgers to face hittable pitching throughout this game. It appears that their bullpen woes are contagious, as their closer Fuentes looked horrible on the mound yesterday as well. Tomko has been one of the most situational pitchers in baseball throughout his career. He is a veteran pitcher that could never adjust to pitching on the road, but has quietly been one of the most underrated and effective home pitchers in baseball the last decade. His career home ERA is 3.77, as opposed to his career road ERA in the mid 5’s. No matter what team he has had to pitch for, he has struggled for them pitching on the road, yet had success in his home starts. However, one park in which he has consistently pitched well in as a road pitcher is Dodgers Stadium, as he has generated a 2.71 career ERA in this park as a road pitcher. This leads me to believe he will be especially effective in this park at home. As he has aged, he fly balls to ground balls has increased a problem that should be helped out by this spacious park. Outside of Coors, Tomko has also dominated the Rockies in the past, and has had the upper hand against their best hitter Holliday. The Rockies continue to struggle hitting the ball on the road, but were helped out by fielding blunders yesterday. The Dodgers have a deeper and more effective bullpen which gives them more leverage when dealing with their fifth starter compared to the Rockies.

Seattle @ Red Sox Play: Seattle +197 Intrinsic Value: +157 Consider Betting Price: +184 Comment: Square money has been all over the Red Sox over the last hour, and have now bid up the Mariners to a price that they are too hard to pass up, and are being more than compensated for the risk that they bring to the table in today’s game. Although Beckett put forth an impressive game against the Royals last week, I still hold my doubts that he is the same pitcher he was a couple of years back. He is still prone to the long ball, and vulnerable to making location mistakes when he elects to challenge hitters. Seattle has a lot of good fastball hitting players that are hard to overpower when challenging them, something Beckett is prone to doing. The Mariners have an underrated lineup and actually are more productive on the road. Beckkett was really been prone to the long ball last year, and the ball may be traveling better than expected in today’s day game. Aside from Papplebon, the Red Sox bullpen leaves a lot to be desired. Most of today’s value is coming from Weavers highly publicized problems of last year. No other hitter in baseball was more vulnerable to the left handed bat the Weaver for most of the season. However, what had not gone mentioned was the fact Weaver finished out the season in dominant fashion, and more importantly dominated to lineups stacked from the left side in the playoffs. Aside from Ortiz, the Red Sox lack left handed hitters that could take advantage of this deficiency. Having not played for four days, the Mariners bullpen is more than rested and will need a lot of action in today’s game. This will put a short leash on Weaver if anything goes wrong. No, I don’t think Seattle will win this game, but are well worth the risk at the current market price.

True, he didn’t have his command today, but was also squeezed by the home plate ump and was not helped out at all by his defense. This was a concern of mine as well, but felt it was more than reflected in the closing line. After this game, it might be a prudent thing to reiterate the importance of price. I would much rather provide this forum with a solid foundation that is vital for being a successful long term handicapper rather than supplying them with short term winners. I have been blessed to be around some of the brightest minds in the industry for nearly 20 years, and I have learned what it takes to be a long term successful handicapper. Right after sound money management and discipline, is the importance of distinguishing between price and value. Since this is an industry that is not perfectly efficient due to many explicit and implicit variables including emotion, this market allows for market miss pricings, meaning that there exists a disparity between price and value. There are a lot of times when taking large underdogs that don’t even come close to winning makes you second guess a handicappers ability, but that is the last thing one should do, and a common mistake a lot make, which causes them to retreat from big underdogs to what appears to be “short term safety” in big favorites. But in reality, this creates value on the underdog, and making big favorites erode your bankroll in the long run. You can not look at a bet as a stand alone entity, rather a position whose stand alone risk gets diversified away over a course of a season. Now, back to this blowout. I accounted for all the risks that the Mariners were bring to the table in this game, whether it was being rusty from a four day layoff (which should with their fielding and timing at the plate. Even Ichiro struck out twice), or the risk of Weaver not having his stuff and getting thoroughly dominated. With all that accounted for, I only came up with the Red Sox winning slightly over 60% of this time if the game were played over a large sample. It does not matter what the expected score distribution is, and the fact that if they would win, their margin of victory would be much greater than most teams who possess a 60% chance of winning. That is irrelevant, and should not allow you to second guess your decision. Linesmakers are no dummies. They put lines out for a reason, and it is not to “trap” people. I guarantee you that during their valuation process, that they derived a line for the Red Sox below their -175 they elected to open it at. Knowing full well that being a morning game and a home opener for the Red Sox, the public would unload on the Sox- which imply they probably slapped on 20 basis points to what they thought the Red Sox were worth and put them out in the market at -175. They actually miscalculated the public’s perception, and the line moved off the open at -200. Betting on teams which carry this type of external variable will erode your bankroll in the long run. Sure Seattle was a risky stand alone bet. I only gave myself less than a 40% chance of cashing them in. But expected ROI is what matters. And according to my calculations, their expected ROI at +197 and IV of +157 was over 17%. Implying that betting them in this spot 100 times would generate 17 units. Baseballs betting should be approached as a grind it out investment, and getting rich slowly is the only way one should look at it, or they will be quickly disappointed.

Hoping to rebound from the worst day of the season so far yesterday (I believe it was the first day in which I lost more than a “unit”). You know it is not going to be your day when the teams you bet on allow a combined 12 unearned runs. Cardinals @ Pirates Play: Pirates +126 Intrinsic Value: -112 Consider Betting Price: +110 Comment: Wainwright is one of the most promising young right handers in the league. His curveball is as good as it gets, and being complimented by his fastball with sinking movement makes him incredibly hard to hit, especially against right handed hitters. However, that was more than publicized during the Cardinals playoff run last year, and is now fully reflected in the current line. Wainwright’s pitch count will also be limited, and his propensity to accumulate high pitch counts per batter may force him to leave an early in this game. With Looper complimenting him in the starting rotation, the Cardinals bullpen lacks depth and talent. In the limited action against the Pirates last year, Wainwright struggled. Relying heavily on his 12 to 6 curveball, it is no surprise that he has been much less efficient during day games so far in his young career, as that pitch is much easier to pick up. Although the Pirates do not have one of the more potent lineups in the league, they have one of the more underrated lineups at home, as should not be taken lightly in this park. The return of Sanchez adds much need balance to the lineup as well. Maholm is also a young promising pitcher. He also happens to be a southpaw, which does not bode well for the Cardinals, as their lineup was clueless all year against them. Maholm got stronger as the season progressed last year, and replicated the pitcher he was in 05 rather than the one who struggled in early 06. He has had much more success in his career at home, and has actually quietly put up a 3.26 career home ERA. Being a hitters park, having success here is a huge plus, and he has limited the home runs allowed in this park as well. He has put up solid numbers against the Cardinals in his only two starts against them. Pitching around Pujols can now be done effectively, as the Cardinals lack and ideal bat to protect him, while Rolen and Edmonds appear to be done. The Cardinals have been known to rest a veteran starter in the past during day games following a night one. Maholm is also backed by the slightly better bullpen. Astros @ Cubs Play: Cubs -162 Intrinsic Value: -194 Consider Betting Price: -174 Comment: Hills has the pitching arsenal to be one of the most dominating southpaws in baseball in years to come. His curveball is one of the most dominating in the league compared to any other left handed pitcher, and showed that to be the case after the break last year, when he put forth a 2.92 ERA and an OBA of .205. This is the exact pitcher that could overpower a struggling Astros lineup that lacks depth and allows pitchers to take breaks. His command has plagued his early career, but has been steadily improving, and not allowing a walk in his first start was a good sign. Astros hitters are plentiful from the right side, making them on the surface an ideal lineup against a southpaw. But this has not been the case for them in years past, and Hill has actually been a bit harder on right handed bats than left handed ones. Although his style of pitching leaves him vulnerable to being picked up easier during the day, he has actually performed better in those situational spots. He is backed by a deep bullpen that can make up for his propensity to accumulate high pitch counts early. The first two games that Cubs dangerous lineup did not get favorable match ups, and it showed in their lack of offensive production. This will not be the case on Wednesday, as they get a tailor made lefty to rough up. Although the jury is still out on Rodriguez, he has so far been a major bust in the big leagues. He looked good in his first start, but was fortunate to face a favorable lineup in the Cardinals, who just can’t hit left handed pitching. This will not be the case, as he is up against what might be the most dangerous lineup in the National League from the right side. He has struggled against right handed hitters throughout his career, and has not had success against a few Cubs hitters. He also falls behind counts, walks a lot of batters, and struggles out of the stretch. This is the last thing you want going up against the Cubs, as there just isn’t any breaks in this lineup, which should allow them to make this deficiency pay. He is also backed by a struggling bullpen, and will more than likely be without Wheeler, as he pitched Monday and over 30 pitches on Tuesday.

Tigers @ Orioles Play: Orioles +124 Intrinsic Value: +107 Consider Betting Price: +124 Comment: This game consists of two young pitchers with a lot of upside potential, but only Verlander is getting credit for such based on the current market price. His mid 90’s fastball combined with his solid curveball has made it hard for both right handed hitters and left handed bats to make solid contact off of him. Although the Tigers have talented bats from the left side, they were not terribly productive against southpaws last year, and may have a hard time getting to Loewen with not having seen him in the past. They also provide Loewen with an ideal match up, as his biggest problem is his lack of command and propensity to allow a lot of walks, something that should be curtailed by the lack of patience the Tigers hitters possess at the plate. Loewen should be able to produce a big increase off his numbers of last year, especially when you factor in that 10 of his 19 starts last year were against either the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, or Blue Jays. He is also backed by the most improved bullpen in baseball this year, and a bullpen that is not that far from the Tigers talent and depth wise. Verlander has the pitching arsenal to be dominant, but everyone is now well aware of that being the case and expecting to get value off of his talent may be wishful thinking throughout the season. Verlander’s style of pitching also compliments the Orioles style of hitting, as they are a solid fastball hitting team. They showed capable of getting to Verlander in their only game against them last year. He has also yet to prove capable of pitching to left handed bats in his career, as he has generated a 1.50 WHIP in these situations, and is prone to the long ball. This does not bode well for his chances, as he will more than likely have to face six left handed bats in this game. Although he is backed by a solid bullpen with great depth, it is a bullpen in which possesses a few pitchers that have been struggling on the mound. Royals @ Blue Jays Play: Blue Jays -164 Intrinsic Value: -207 Consider Betting Price: -186 Comment: This is the third straight day in which I feel the Blue Jays are coming with a lot of value. Although I got burned on them yesterday, I feel they have a much more favorable pitching match up this time around. Don’t put too much stock in Del La Rosa’s first dominating performance. He simply lacks the consistency, command, and stamina to produce such outings on a consistent basis. He also has the worst match up for his style of pitching, as he is a southpaw who tries to overpower hitters with his heat. This does not bode well for his chances, as the Blue Jays are loaded from the right side with power hitters who match up well against southpaw power pitchers. They are also a relatively patient lineup who makes their opponents pitcher come into the strike zone, which has been a problem for Del La Rosa in the past. Having to pitch behind a relatively small strike zone will only magnify the issue, and make him accumulate a high pitch count early in this game. This does not bode well for the Royals chances, as they possess an injured bullpen that is one of the worst in the league. Chacin has had his fair share of issues the last year or so, but still has upside potential. Today is a good spot for him to put forth a solid outing, as he is up against a lineup that is not much of a threat against left handed pitching, and have struggled in these spots so far this year, hitting just over .200 as a team against southpaws. The Royals are also much less potent on the road. The Blue Jays bullpen has a big edge over their counterparts, and their best pitchers are well rested for this game. Chacin is prone to the long ball, but only Brown has shown power against left handed pitchers, which should allow him to curtail this deficiency. Home field advantage is magnified in this series, as both teams are far more productive in their home park.

The public continues to neglect price, and have overconfidently bid the Yankees and Braves up to a price in which I can’t resist going the other way. Nats @ Braves Play: Nationals +258 Intrinsic Value: +177 Consider Betting Price: +236 Comment: The cats out of the bag. The Nats are the worst team in baseball. But this has been public knowledge for months now, and sooner or later, the inflated price compensation that has been accompanying them will reward patient contrarian bettors. There is no way a team like the one the Braves are bringing to the table warrant such high odds, but the public does not care. As long as they are winning, they will blindly bet the “public darlings”. With the way Patterson has been struggling on the mound, Williams might be the best pitcher on the team. A few years back, he was a highly touted prospect, but has not yet lived up to his potential. A good sign that he might turn things around is the notion Sabean got rid of him, as he is a specialist of getting rid of young pitching talent. He has actually put up some pretty solid numbers in his young career, although teams like the Giants and Cubs wanted nothing to do with him. He has a solid change up that could eat up right handed bats, and bats that lack patience. This does not bode well for the Braves, who have one of the more aggressive lineups in the league. Williams has not had problems pitching on the road in the past, and has put up solid starts against the Braves before. He is not an innings eater, but unlike most bad teams, the Nats do not have a terrible bullpen. Some say James is the next Glavine. Although that statement might be taking it too far, there is no denying his upside. However, warranting such high odds is a different story. His high disparity of velocity between his change and fastball makes him hard to pick up, giving him an embedded advantage against lineups that have not seen him before. This is not the case for the Nats, who saw him three times last year, and had success against him- getting progressively better with each start. No, the chances of the Nats winning this game is not terribly good, but much better than the current odds reflect. Yankees @ Twins Play: Twins +150 Intrinsic Value: +125 Consider Betting Price: +146 Comment: I got burned betting against the Yankees two days in a row, and it may very well happen again. But I have no problem flocking to value, which is once again the case on a team playing against the Yankees. Prior to seasons start, one expected one of the more intriguing go- against pitchers would be Mussina, as expecting him to replicate last year appeared to be wishful thinking. If his first start was any indication, this prediction should hold true. Even during Mussina’s solid year last year, he was very hittable for most teams. This included the Twins lineup, who roughed him up in his only start against them. Although the Twins do not have a terribly potent lineup, it is a dangerous lineup at home, and could remain dormant for only so long. The Yankees have the best lineup in baseball. Its not even close. It is also one of the hottest. But don’t think for one minute this is not fully reflected in the current odds- and then some. Ortiz has been a disaster in recent years, and there are a lot of signs pointing to another sub par year this year. However, he is a very streaky pitcher who is coming off a start in which he looked much more effective than normal. Although he has struggled against some of the Yankees hitters, this might be a start in which he surprises people, as his performances often deviate from fundamental form. Arod has been pounding the outside pitches, but has not handled the bat when pitchers come in on him. Ortiz loves going in on right handed pitchers and will challenge anyone, which might be what the Yankees need, as both Bonser and Ponson lacked such an approach. Once again, he is backed by the best bullpen in baseball, and with Nathon and Rincon needing work, Ortiz will not be on the mound if ineffective.

Mariners @ Red Sox Play: Mariners +160 Intrinsic Value: +116 Consider Betting Price: +136 Comment: It is no surprise here that the Red Sox are yet again coming with an inflated price tag at home, but from a fundamental standpoint, there is no way they warrant these types of odds in this game. Wakefield has been a notoriously better day game pitcher due to the dynamics of the knuckleball, but this is not the type of weather in which the knuckle works well in. Don’t be surprised if it comes out flat today. The Mariners are coming off an emotional win that should boost their confidence after Tuesday’s disaster. They have speed across the lineup that could take advantage of Wakefield being easy to steal against. They have also been a more productive lineup on the road, which allows them to minimize the home field advantage effects in most series. Wakefield has actually struggled more against right handed hitters, while the Mariners will more than likely send seven right handers to the plate in this game. Aside from Pappelbon, the Red Sox bullpen leaves a lot to be desired, and Wakefield just doesn’t eat up innings like he has in the past. Prior to last year, Washburn was the most undervalued road pitcher in baseball for many years. He was better able to show his pitching ability away from Angel Stadium, where he never felt comfortable on the mound. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.66 road ERA, including solid performances in Fenway in the past. Altough Manny and Ortiz are both batting over .300 against him, Washburn has limited their damage, allowing a combined one home run in over 30 at bats. He has also done a good job keeping the ball in this hitter’s park in the past as well, as he has allowed just one home run here in 30 plus innings. The Mariners bullpen is as well rested as it gets. With Wakfield on the mound, Mirrabeli will be catching, taking away batting talent in this game. They will more than likely lose this game, but this price is too good to pass up. Phillies @ Mets Play: Mets -142 Intrinsic Value: -178 Consider Betting Price: -161 Comment: The Mets are actually one of the few favorites on today’s card that is coming with some nice value. Although its rare to see a public favorite like the Mets coming with value, this is the second game of the series in which they have been undervalued, due to the public backing of the Phillies brand name offense. Although the Mets are more vulnerable against left handed pitchers, Moyer is not the type of southpaw that gives them problems. Over the last few years, there are just a few more inferior road pitchers in the league than Moyer, whose deficiencies were masked by being to play in the spacious park of Safeco in half of his games. Moyer was overmatched in his only start against the Mets last year, and pitching in the pitchers park Shea didn’t help him much. Not only will he have to face a lineup that will be filled with right handed talent and switch hitting players, the best left handed hitter on the team, Delgado, has absolutely dominated him, hitting 27 for 57 with seven home runs. He does not have the luxury of pitching around him. Being backed by a suspect and struggling bullpen should allow the Mets to have scoring opportunities throughout this game and take the series. Glavine is the ideal crafty left handed pitcher that should negate the Phillies strengths on offense. The Phillies possess a left handed loaded lineup better suited to going up against power right handed pitchers, and will be forced to hit against the exact opposite in today’s game. Glavine looked sharp in his first two starts, which is especially a good sign, as they were both road starts, where he struggled pitching last year. Glavine has become really comfortable pitching in this park, where he generated a 2.88 ERA last year. Although he did not put forth the best of numbers against the Phillies last year, those numbers are a bit misleading, as they were inflated by one poor road start, and was actually able to put forth quality starts in three of his four tries against this lineup. The Phillies lineup is as streaky as it gets, and are continuing to play below their ability. Glavine is backed by a much better bullpen, which should allow the Mets to have the advantage in the later innings. Royals @ Orioles Play: Orioles -119 Intrinsic Value: -173 Consider Betting Price: -157 Comment: It’s hard to imagine that one of the worst road teams in baseball is coming at this short of a price, but with the recently publicized Meche on the mound, I am not surprised. I will go the other way. Traschel is not the ideal pitcher to bet on, but I do like him a bit in this spot, as he is at his best against young, impatient lineups that lack the ideal patience to force him to come into the strike zone. Expect him to be able to lure the Royals young hitters out of the strike zone and swing at pitches that look tempting but are not ideal to hit. The Royals are one of the more anemic lineups on the road, and did not have one batter hit double digit home runs on the road last year. This is not ideal when playing in a hitter’s park against a pitcher that is vulnerable to the long ball. The Orioles have the most improved bullpen in baseball, and although they had to play a 12 inning game last night, they did not have one bullpen pitcher go over an inning. Thanks to Meche’s big contract, he is finally getting the recognition he deserves. However, usually recognition is accompanied by diminishing value, and that appears to be the case in today’s game. Meche has always had the pitching arsenal to be a dominant pitcher. That was never the issue. The issue has been a lack of command a mental problems that were usually magnified during road starts. His career road ERA of 5.37 is a far cry from his sub 4 home ERA. Pitching his first two games in his new home, Meche has been able to mask this potential problem that may surface in today’s game. Meche is actually tougher to pick up for left handers as well, which bodes well for the lineup whose power comes from the right side. There are a few hitters on the team with past success against Meche, including Roberts, who is 12 for 23. Meche is also not an ideal candidate to go deep into games, especially on the round. He only went past the sixth inning in one of his road starts last year. Being backed by what might be the worst bullpen in baseball; this can lead to a big problem.

Tigers @ Blue Jays Play: Blue Jays -126 Intrinsic Value: -144 Consider Betting Price: -129 Comment: The Tigers looked awful at the plate yesterday. Not only did it take them 12 innings to put runs on the board, a lot of their hitters battling early season slumps weren’t even coming close to making contact. However, being the defending AL champions, this often gets ignored by linesmakers and the public when quantifying their value. This is a bounce back opportunity for Ohka, who has shown good bounce back ability in years past. He gets a slumping lineup for his bounce back opportunity today. He is a finesse pitcher that could take advantage of the lack of patience a lot of Tigers hitters have at the plate. He has had decent success against some of the veteran hitters on the Tigers. He is backed by a pretty solid bullpen, and should get some good run support if things go sour. Don’t be surprised if the Blue Jays put up the best home numbers out of any team this year. But they will never be priced as such, which should make them an intriguing home value play. They also may be the most dangerous lineup in the league against southpaws, and get to face a struggling one today. Maroth, coming off a prolonged layoff due to injury just looked horrible on the mound in his first start. This will more than likely force him to pitch with a lack of confidence, and being accompanied by a fundamental mismatch, Moyer may be in for another long day. This is the last thing you want when being backed by a struggling lineup. Maroth has never been a good road pitcher, has been manhandled by the Blue Jays in the past, and has had most of his struggles against this team in this park. He has been dominated by right handed power bats throughout his career, something in which the Blue Jays are loaded with. It is no surprise that a few of their hitters have had past success against him. Although he is backed by a talented bullpen, it is a bullpen in which two of their better pitchers had to go two innings in yesterdays extra inning game. Devil Rays @ Twins Play: Twins -154 Intrinsic Value -214 Consider Betting Price: -191 Comment: The Twins are yet another home favorite that is actually coming with some nice value, in my opinion. Although I feel emotion and emotional wins are often overestimated by handicappers, one team that I feel feeds off emotion and momentum are the Twins, especially at home. The Twins got a huge monkey off their back in the 8th inning last night, where they were finally able to generate some offense and possibly put an end to their prolonged hitting slump. Last year, they fed off instances like this and carried it over for prolonged periods of time. They have a favorable match up to do such in this game, as they are up against what might be the worst road pitcher in baseball with Fossum. Fossum has been a disaster on the mound for quite some time now. This holds especially true during his road starts, a spot in which he put forth a 8.08 ERA last year, and possesses a career 5.68 road ERA. He started right were he left off last year in his first start of the season, when he allowed seven runs in less than four innings of work. Being backed by a horrific and overworked bullpen will only supplement the Twins with scoring opportunities throughout the game. The Twins actually have a dangerous lineup at home. Don’t be surprised if Silva has a bounce back year after last years debacle, that was potentially caused by the WBC. If his first start was any indication, this very well may be the case. Last week he had to face a lineup that has dominated him in the past, on the road where he has never been effective, and in a park that magnifies his recent pitching deficiencies. He allowed just one run in that game. This week he gets a much more favorable spot, as he returns home, where he has pitched much more effective throughout his career, and against a team that he has had past success against. Being backed by the best bullpen in the league, gives the Twins as big of a pitching disparity in the later innings as you could find. The Devil Rays are improved this year, and have an underrated lineup. However, winning just five of their last 41 road games can not be overlooked or not quantified.

I may add another play or two throughout the day. Reds @ Cubs Play: Cubs -148 Intrinsic Value: -191 Consider Betting: -176 Comment: Zambrano is a pitcher that feeds off emotion, and he is a better pitcher because of it. You better believe that he is going to bring a lot of it to the mound in this game, as he has been waiting to play the Reds ever since opening day, when Dunn and the Reds smacked him around the park. This favorable intangible will be complimented by favorable fundamentals. He has pitched well against the Red throughout his career, as he comes into today’s game with a career 3.00 ERA against them. Prior to his last game against Dunn, he has pitched well against him, and a few other of their batters that will be in today’s lineup. He has been one of the most effective day game pitchers in the league the past few years, and his emotion he brings to the plate is exactly what the Cubs lineup needs to wake up. The Reds are one of the more overrated lineups in the league, and need to rely on the long ball more than other teams to score runs. Although Dunn got a hold of Zambrano twice last outing, he is not a pitcher that it terribly easy to go long against. He is backed by a talented and deep bullpen that will sooner or later play to their abilities. The Reds bats, much like last year, are struggling getting things going on the road so far. They come into today’s game with a .233 road batting average. Harrang is a solid pitcher that performed well on opening day against the Cubs. But he is not an ideal pitcher to go up against this lineup. He is a challenge fastball pitcher, a method that sooner or later will get burned by this Cubs lineup. He struggled against the Cubs last year, and Lee seems to pick him up well. Harrang has also struggled a lot more against right handed hitters throughout his career, which does not bode well for his chances in this game, as the Cubs might have the most loaded lineup from the right side in the National league. He has been much less effective during day games throughout his career, and being a fly ball pitcher might be counterproductive in this park. He is a workhorse, but because of not having any breaks in the Cubs lineup, this is an ideal team to work a pitchers pitch count. This does not bode well for Harrang, as he is backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league. Giants @ Pirates Play: Pirates -148 Intrinsic Value: -182 Consider Betting Price: -167 Comment: The only thing worse than having Ortiz on the mound, is having Ortiz on the mound and backing him with a lineup that can’t score runs. This is exactly what the Giants are bringing to the table in this game. Although Oritz will more than likely improve off of his numbers he generated the last couple of years, this doesn’t mean he will be an effective pitcher. Today he gets his first road start, a spot in which he has never pitched well in the past, as his career road ERA is near five. He is the exact type pitcher you want on the mound when you are a struggling lineup like the Pirates. He is also the type of pitcher you want to face when hitting in a hitters park, as he has been really prone to the long ball in recent years. Bay has hit him well in the past. Ortiz, much like other Giants pitchers are being affected by their dormant lineup, as the feel the need to pitch a no hitter in every start in order to win the game. The Pirates have a more talented lineup than the one they have displayed so far this season, and one that is much more dangerous at home than most people give them credit for. Backing Ortiz is a sub par bullpen that should allow the Pirates to have scoring opportunities throughout this game. Duke’s slow start last year has really allowed him to fly under the radar. But if you take that time period away, he has been one of the most dominant southpaws in baseball the last couple of years. Today he has a good spot to continue his success this year, as he is up against the most struggling lineup in the league right now. No matter the type of pitcher, the Giants just can’t get hits. It won’t get any easier for them today, as Duke has always been solid in his home starts, and has pitched the Giants well in the past. The Giants have a lot of left handed bats as well, which could be a problem, as Duke’s style of pitching has allowed him to bury left handed hitters. Many people are surprised by Bond’s slow start after the spring he put forth. I am not in the least, as expecting him to get the same pitches he was getting in Spring just wasn’t going to happen. Duke is also backed by the deeper and more talented bullpen, which should allow them to put forth the better pitcher on the mound throughout this game. Astros @ Phillies Play: Astros +106 Intrinsic Value:-120 Consider Betting Price: -106 Comment: The Phillies are a team that feeds off of momentum, and when things go bad, they go bad for long periods of time, and just don’t change over night. Right now, things are going bad for them. Things are more than likely not going to just change around in this game, as they face a top 3 pitcher in baseball with Oswalt being on the mound. Oswalt is off to another dominant start this year, as he has allowed just two runs in his first two starts. This Phillies lineup did not get a chance to see his stuff last year, but two years back, were thoroughly dominated by him. He has been getting progressively more effective against left handed hitters as years go by, which should allow him to pitch to the Phillies lineup more effectively. He is also one of the harder pitchers to go long against, which should curtail the effects of the Phillies power and the hitter’s park he will be pitching in. He is one of the better pitchers at eating up innings and avoiding the front end up bullpens. The Astros 9th inning has become much safer with the switch to Wheeler. Timing is also favoring the Astros, as they got the day off yesterday, while the Phillies were finishing off an emotional and disappointing series in New York. The Astros seem to be hitting better during their road games, as they are playing without the added pressure, it appears. Today they have a chance to continue this trend against a pitcher that did not look sharp on the mound in his last outing. Last year, Myers did not do an effective job curtailing the effects of this hitters park, as the allowed a homerun every six innings. He has also always started out seasons being one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, making last outing even more concerning. Once both starters leave, the Astros should be able to continue their pitching edge, the Phillies bullpen is not that talented.

Royals @ Orioles Play: Orioles -164 Intrinsic Value: -245 Consider Betting Price: -220 Comment: On the surface, this looks like a lot of basis points to lay on a team that has been struggling to score runs, but in my opinion, there is a lot of hidden value here. The Orioles have not had many problems getting runners on base; their problem has been a lack of situational hitting and driving runners in during spots in which they should. This deficiency should be helped out by having Duckworth on the mound, who has been a horrific pitcher throughout his career pitching out the stretch and getting out of jams. Don’t put too much stock in his first outing where he did not allow a run. He simply has too many holes in his game to pitch well for long periods of time, and has not reached an age where turning things around may be wishful thinking. He has also always been one of the worst road pitchers in baseball, as he comes into today’s game with a six plus career road ERA, while teams having been able to hit .300 against him in those spots, as opposed to his .255 OBA during his home outings. Being backed by what might be the worst bullpen in baseball should allow the Orioles to face inferior pitcher throughout the game, which is exactly what they need to get out of their slump. You have to like Bedard in this spot, as he is coming with some value most likely as he is coming in this game with some ugly numbers due to pitching in two unfavorable pitching situations. Today he gets a much more favorable one. He has always been a much more dominant home pitcher, and was one of the most dominant in the league last year. He has done a good job keeping balls in this small park, and poses a tough match up for this slumping Royals lineup that is not built to hit a pitcher like Bedard. He eats up left handed bats, and is tough on right handers as well. His solid command should take advantage of the lack of experience the majority of the Royals hitters have at the plate. Bedard is also finally backed by a solid bullpen, which should allow him to improve his numbers this season. Marlins @ Braves Play: Marlins -102 Intrinsic Value: -129 Consider Betting Price: -116 Comment: The Braves hot start has really inflated their price tag of late. What some are failing to realize is that their hot start has been more of a product of their pitcher than their hitting, something that might have a problem continuing in this game with Redman on the mound. On the surface, it might look like he has a good spot to put forth an impressive outing, as his finesse style might take advantage of the youth the Marlins lineup brings to the table. However, the Marlins have been showing a lot of patience at the plate so far this season, and have underrated and talented right handed hitters that could smack Redman around the park. Redman has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball the last few years, and has not had an effective season in four years. Expecting him to turn things around now may be wishful thinking, especially when having to pitch in this division. The Marlins have one of the more underrated lineups in the league, and a lineup that has not shown any slow down at the plate during their road games the last couple of years. There has been no other lineup in the league that has given Willis more problems than the Braves. But one has to wonder how long this trend will last. Looking back at 3 of his last four starts against them last year, and it appears that this trend is slowly going away. Willis is also coming into this game with much needed confidence, as he put together two solid outings in a row. He has never had a problem pitching on the road, and in fact has been more effective in these spots. He is nearly unhittable for left handed hitters, which gives him a good chance to silence some of the young left handed talent the Braves have at the plate. Willis is also more than likely going to get the run support he is not accustomed to in years past when facing the Braves. The Braves lineup has actually been far from impressive this year, as they come into today’s game with a team batting average of .226, and a number even worse against the left handed pitchers they have faced. Brewers @ Cardinals Play: Cardinals +114 Intrinsic Value: -106 Consider Betting Price: +108 Comment: Sheets is getting a bit too much respect with this current line. This holds especially true since he has never been nearly as an effective pitcher during his road starts, and has not had past success against this Cardinals lineup. It is not surprising that the Cardinals have had more success against Sheets compared to most teams, as what they do have is a patient lineup that makes a pitcher throw strikes, making them less prone to chasing that curveball that Sheets throws out of the zone. There will be a few hitters spread across today’s lineup that has had past success against Sheets. Although the Cardinals lineup has once again struggling at the plate, they are more than likely to keep this up when facing left handers as opposed to right handers. I like getting Reyes as a home underdog. His career numbers are far from his potential, and this reflects in the current line. Although he has struggled against the Brewers last year, I like how he matches up against him. The solid movement he has on his pitches coupled with the plus command will make impatient lineups struggle at the plate. The Brewers have one of the most impatient lineups in the league. They are also a much more dangerous lineup at home.

Padres @ Dodgers Play: Dodgers -130 Intrinsic Value: -147 Consider Betting Price: -135 Comment: Although Lowe is a sinkerball pitcher who has a propensity to really struggle against lineups with a lot of hitters that bat from the left side, he has surprisingly dominated the Padres throughout his career, especially in games last year. He has consistently been one of the most undervalue home pitchers in baseball the last few years, and although he puts up the same home numbers as a lot of big name pitchers, he never comes with nearly the same price. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.30 ERA, and a career ERA against the Padres that is more than one run less than that. He has had past success against a few of the Padres hitters, a trend that has a good chance of continuing in today’s game, as the Padres have really been struggling at the plate, but have been able to mask this deficiency thanks to their superb pitching. Lowe is backed by a solid bullpen that should give the Padres problems at the plate throughout this game. Wells looked solid in his first start, but has a much less favorable situation in this game. Last start was a home start, where has pitched much more effectively throughout his career, and a start against a young lineup built for power pitchers, which is the exact opposite of what Wells brings to the mound. This start is a road start, a situation in which Wells has never pitched well in, and against a veteran lineup that knows how to handle his style of pitching. Wells has struggled against the Dodgers in the past, and has been dominated by a couple of their veteran hitters throughout his career. Although he is backed by a bullpen that has not yet allowed a run, it is a bullpen that has done a good job avoiding their front end, something that they might have trouble avoiding in this game. Angels @ Red Sox Play: Angels +102 Intrinsic Value: -120 Consider Betting Price: -106 Comment: Wakefield would have preferred pitching yesterday than today. Yesterday was a day game against a lineup that he matches up better against. Today, he will have to pitch at night, a situation that has never favored the knuckleball, in weather conditions that are counter effective to the movement of the pitches. His chances of struggling have increased a lot in today’s game. He will also face a lineup with some hitters that have shown capable of hitting the knuckleball, including Guerrerro. The Angels have been swinging the bat well this season, and are actually more dangerous in their road games. Wakefield is backed by a very mediocre bullpen. There is no denying that Lackey has struggled against the Red Sox in his career. However, the sustainability of this deficiency is lacking. His struggles against this team have occurred two plus years ago, and he has become a much more effective pitcher since then, as he has been able to rely more on his breaking bal and avoid the fastball that the Red Sox start hitters pick apart. Lackey was has also been one of the most dominant road pitchers in baseball the last couple of years, and combining that with the Angels propensity to hit the ball better on the road diminishes the home field advantage that usually plays a key role in Boston games. Being backed by a top tier bullpen give the Red Sox a good chance of keeping their struggles at the plate for another game.

Adding one more for now Rangers @ Mariners Play: Mariners -105 Intrinsic Value: -119 Consider Betting Price: -105 Comment: It seems like perception of years past is being factored into this line. That is the perception that Millwood and the Rangers lineup are forces to be reckoned, with just doesn’t appear to be the case for either one at this point and time. Millwood has really regressed as a pitcher since signing that big contract. He has been much more hittable, especially for left handed bats. I like how the Mariners lineup matches up against him. They are a good fastball hitting lineup, and have speed across the lineup which could be a problem for Millwood, who does a poor job holding runners on base. There are five hitters with a decent sample of bats that will be in today’s lineup that are batting over .300 against him, while a couple others have solid numbers as well and have hit him hard. Millwood has been known to start seasons off slow, and appears to be doing the same thing this year, as he has allowed a lot of baserunners in both his first two starts. He is backed by a very mediocre bullpen even with Gagne back. Washburn just owns this park. He loved pitching here when he was an Angel, and his love for this park carried over now that he is a home pitcher here. This spacious park compliments his fly ball style of pitching, while it counters the asset of the Rangers lineup and fly ball style of hitting. This Rangers lineup has started slow out of the gates, and are better suited for hitting against power pitchers, which Washburn is far from.

Reds @ Cubs Play: Cubs -129 Intrinsic Value -166 Consider Betting Price: -152 Comment: Last season, the best thing that could have happened to the Tigers happened in mid April prior to the A’s series, when the Tigers were coming off a disappointing loss. Leyland lit a fuse under the team, and the team responded and never looked back. Although on the surface, the Cubs disappointing loss yesterday was tough to take, in the long run, it could pay off big dividends if Pinella was successful in lighting a fuse under the team. Today they send a young southpaw on the mound that possesses one of the nastiest curveballs in the game. After struggling early last season, he finished out the year in dominant fashion, and since the break, he was nearly unhittable. He started this year where he left off last year, as he allowed just one hit in his first start. Although he struggled against the Reds last year, he matches up well against them, as he can neutralize their left handed power. He has allowed just two home runs from the left side, and has been overpowering on right handers as well. The Reds bats have been far from impressive, and did not do anything to win yesterdays game. Hill is backed by a deep and solid bullpen that dominated the Reds yesterday. Sooner or later, the Cubs bats are going to come alive. They simply have too much talent not too. Although they face a pitcher that dominated them last year, the sustainability factor of such is lacking. Arroyo’s biggest asset is his unorthodox backwards pitching style that has been a novelty for most NL hitters. This is no longer the case for the Cubs bats. Last year, in most of his games against the Cubs, he did not have to face Lee, and Floyd was not on the team, which does not sound like much, but he has really struggled against left handed hitters. Arroyo’s junk is also easier to pick up during the day, and it reflected in his stats last year, as his day game numbers were over a run worse than his night stats. The Cubs already showed once this year that Arroyo is not going to be able to dominate them in the fashion that he did last year, as they touched him up for 8 hits and four runs in his first start. Although the Reds bullpen has been pitching really well of late, they simply lack the talent to keep it up for a long period of time. Marlins @ Braves Play: Marlins +116 Intrinsic Value: -101 Consider Betting Price: +113 Comment: I am not sure what the public’s fascination with the Braves and their hot streak is, but it has been generated by their starting pitching and not their offense, which has not shown much so far this season. This does not bode well for their chances in this game, as they send yet another starting pitcher on the mound that lacks effective stuff and could get overmatched by this Marlins lineup. Although Davies pitched well in his first outing, he simply lacks the consistency and command to keep these type of performances going. He still is extremely hittable, and was thoroughly dominated last year by the Marlins, who were able to score nine runs against him in six innings of work. Davies has not been effective against right handed or left handed bats, which compliments this well balanced and underrated Marlins lineup. He has the propensity to try to overpower hitters, which gets him in trouble due to his lack of command. This is the exact style of pitching this young lineup likes to hit against. There are a few players on the team that has shown an ability to hit him well in the limited at bats against him. Although the Braves bullpen is much improved, it is mainly improved in the back end. The front end got in a lot of work yesterday and still isn’t terribly talented. It is also a portion which Davies might have a hard time avoiding. Olsen has really been flying under the radar so far in his young career, but he already has one of the best sliders in baseball and could overpower any lineup in the league. Although he has some ugly numbers against the Braves, they lack sustainability. Most of those numbers were generated when he was going through and ugly stretch primarily caused by dead arm, while a lot of those numbers were generated by hitters no longer on the team. He is also a rare young pitcher that has shown a preference to pitch away from home, as he has impressive career road numbers. The Braves lineup is struggling at the plate and has not picked up southpaws well. The lack of patience they possess at the plate prevents the opposing pitcher from throwing a lot of pitches, which bodes well for teams like the Marlins who lack ideal bullpens. It also compliments pitchers like Olsen who picks apart hitters that swing at his slider that rarely is in the strike zone.

Royals @ Orioles Play: Orioles -169 Intrinsic Value: -224 Consider Betting Price: -201 Comment: This is the sixth game in a row in which I went against the Royals on the road. Until books factor in their inability to play well away from home, I will continue to find value in their opponents line. The Orioles have actually been swinging the bat better than their numbers would tell you. They have done a solid job getting runners on base, but have lacked the situational hitting to bring them home. Sooner or later that trend reverses itself. Today they get a good chance to do that, as they face a pitcher whose career went downhill in a hurry. Perez was looking for this year to be the year in which he finally turns things around and become the pitcher he once was. After his first two starts, it looks like that will be far from the case. Perez has been extremely hittable and ineffective on the mound, and has always been known to struggle most on the road. Although the Orioles are far from a potent lineup against southpaws, this switch might be a good thing far them, as their productivity and finishing off innings against right handed pitching has been lacking. Perez is not a candidate to go deep into games, and is backed by the worst bullpen in baseball, and a bullpen in which the Orioles hitters have had a good look at two days in a row now. This is a good spot for them to carry the momentum of last nights 8th inning in today’s game. Cabrera has the stuff to be one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. However, he lacks the mental strength and command to allow him to become such. However, Mazzoni has been working on these two deficiencies a lot and it appears to be paying off. He looked solid in both his starts and showed an improved command. He in fact went seven innings without walking a batter in his last start, which is a really good sign that he finally may have turned the corner. Today he has a good spot for him to carry that momentum, as he faces a struggling lineup that has consistently been one of the least potent road lineups in baseball. It is also a lineup that he has pitched well against in the past. Cabrera has reached a comfort zone when pitching on his home mound as well, and has been more effective pitching here throughout his career. He usually struggles against veteran lineups that have patience at the plate, as it forces him to come into the strike zone. The Royals lack this asset, which will fall right into Cabrera’s liking. He buries right handed bats, and the Royals are not dangerous from the left side. He is also backed by the most improved bullpen in baseball, which should make it hard for the Royals to come out of their funk in this game.

Adding Brewers @ Cardinals Play: Brewers +125 Intrinsic Value +100 Consider Betting Price: +120 Comment: I am not a big fan of betting on Suppan, but he has proven in the past that he is more than capable of pitching well in pressure situations, which will be the case, as he pitches against his former team. Although he has some poor numbers against a few of the Cardinals hitters that he will have to face today, it potentially lacks a sustainability factor, as almost all those numbers were generated three plus years ago. Suppan is more vulnerable against lineups that are loaded from the left side, which is simply not the case with the Cardinals lineup. He is backed by a relatively deep bullpen who possesses a few pitchers that have had past success against the Cardinals. Expectations are high from the public regarding the Cardinals, but they simply have the talent to be a solid team this year. Their lineups has once again started slow out of the gates, and although they are more prone to struggle against left handed pitching, they have actually been less productive against right handers, and have managed just three home runs all year against right handed pitching. Suppan liked pitching in this park last year. The Cardinals lineup is heavily dependent on Pujols, and he isn’t hitting the ball well right now. Although Wells has started off the season in solid fashion, I have still doubting how long he could keep pitching in the manner that he has. This might be a spot for a letdown, as he is most vulnerable against lineups with power from the left side, which he will be up against in today’s game. The Brewers are a team that thrives off of momentum, and they have generated just that, winning four of their last five games. Their lineup has been hitting the ball better than the Cardinals, and have been especially hitting the ball well against right handed pitching. The Cardinals have an overrated bullpen that lacks depth. It is also a bullpen that has their fair share of pitchers with past struggles against the Brewers prior to the 9th inning.

Marlins @ Braves Play: Marlins +168 Intrinsic Value: +125 Consider Betting Price: +146 Comment: Win or lose, I am baffled to see this line priced so high. The Braves are quickly becoming one of the most overvalued teams in baseball. There is no denying that Hudson has looked dominant on the mound to start off this season, but expecting him to return to the pitcher that posted mid 3 ERA’s year in and year out is probably not wise. It is safe to say that his name now outweighs his pitching ability. I am also not getting carried away with his first two starts, as one was against a team that he has always had success against, while the other was against a team anyone can have success against. This may be Hudson’s biggest test, as he faces one of the hotter lineups in the league, and a lineup with three young hitters with past success against him. It is also a lineup with some underrated left handed hitters that could give Hudson problems. Simply put, Hudson is no longer an elite pitcher, but continues to be priced as one. Olsen has really been flying under the radar so far in his young career, but he already has one of the best sliders in baseball and could overpower any lineup in the league. Although he has some ugly numbers against the Braves, they lack sustainability. Most of those numbers were generated when he was going through and ugly stretch primarily caused by dead arm, while a lot of those numbers were generated by hitters no longer on the team. He is also a rare young pitcher that has shown a preference to pitch away from home, as he has impressive career road numbers. The Braves lineup is struggling at the plate and has not picked up southpaws well. The lack of patience they possess at the plate prevents the opposing pitcher from throwing a lot of pitches, which bodes well for teams like the Marlins who lack ideal bullpens. It also compliments pitchers like Olsen who picks apart hitters that swing at his slider that rarely is in the strike zone. Brewers @ Cardinals Play: Cardinals +110 Intrinsic Value: -116 Consider Betting Price: -103 Comment: I am well aware of the problems the Cardinals have been having at the plate. I am also well aware of how dominant of a pitcher Sheets has been. However, I feel that this may be a good spot for a reversal of both, yet it is not factored in the market price. Sheets is actually coming off a start in which he was very hittable. He is much more prone to struggle against veteran lineups that have patience at the plate and are less likely to chase his curve out of the zone. This is the type of lineup he will be up against today, and it is no surprise some of the Cardinals hitters have had past success against him. This also may be a spot in which Puljos finally gets things going, as he more than anyone, has proven capable of hitting Sheets in the past. Although the Cardinals have looked awful at the plate of late, they have performed well during the day games this year, which is a trend that seems to be carry from last year. Even Albert has hit well in this situation (also a trend continuing from last year). Sheets has not been as effective in his career on the road, and has yet to pitch a road game this season. I am not sure why Looper has not been getting much credit this year, but he has been flat out dominant in the starting role. His stuff looks unhittable, and his command has been exceptional. He has been equally as hard for left handers and right handers, and put forth a seven inning two hit shutout in his only day game of the season. A situational trend of pitching better during day games and home games is also working in Looper’s favor. He has had success against the Brewers in the past, and his style of pitching matches up well against the Brewers style of hitting. Although the Brewers have won their last three road games, they have never been as dangerous on the road, and have scored more than three runs in just one of their last four games. Although the Cardinals bullpen is not as talented as it was in past years, they have four pitchers that have been solid on the mound this season, including three that have yet to give up a run. Reds @ Cubs Play: Cubs -150 Intrinsic Value: -176 Consider Betting Price: -158 Comment: I am going right back on the Cubs for the third straight day, and have no problem doing such, as once they are able to play to form for a prolonged period of time, they are a type of team whose value will quickly go away. The are coming off an impressive win, where both their bats and pitchers put forth dominant performances. This is a spot for them to do such again. Lilly downright dominated the Reds in his first start of the season, where he allowed just three hits in seven innings of work. He has a good chance to put forth another solid outing, as he poses a difficult challenge for this lineup. Lilly has always been a pitcher that has eaten up left handed bats, which does not bode well for a lineup whose power comes from the left side. The Reds posses one of the most overrated and worst lineups in baseball, especially on the road and against left handed pitching. They have struggled in both spots this year, including getting worked by a southpaw on Friday. Lilly is backed by a solid bullpen that has been pitching well of late and has had no problem getting Reds hitters out. Lohse allowed ten hits to the Cubs in his first start against them this year, and put forth a horrible outing in his only start against them last year. Lohse has been manhandled throughout his career against left handed bats, and the addition of Floyd and replacement of Ramirez will allow the Cubs to put out a balanced lineup from the left side. This does not bode well for Lohse’s chances, as right handed hitters, Derossa (if he plays), Lee and Soriano come into today’s game a combined 17 for 30 against him. The Reds bullpen is one of the worst in baseball and finally showed some regression during Saturdays game. Even with the injury to Ramirez, the Cubs still have one of the best lineups in the NL.

Padres @ Dodgers Play: Padres -112 Intrinsic Value: -167 Consider Betting Price: -146 Comment: When Young was pitching for Texas, he was consistently putting forth dominant starts on the road and was getting raked at home. Being a notorious fly ball pitcher, people claimed that his home woes were a product of the Rangers ballpark and not his mental state. They claimed his home woes would quickly go away now when he went to the Padres as the biggest park in the game will compliment his fly ball style of pitching. However, since joining the Padres, Young continued to be one of the most dominant road pitchers in the league, yet continued to struggle at home. Young consistently comes with some of the best value on the road, including tonight game. His unorthodox style of pitching and frame has given the Dodgers problems in the past, as he had the upper hand in all five of his starts against them, and got all five decisions. Dodgers batters are hitting just .154 against him in over 30 innings of work. He has dominated a few of the Dodgers hitters, including Furcal and Pierre, who are a combined 3 for 24 against him, which is key, as he is an easy pitcher to steal off of. Being backed by the hottest and one of the best bullpens in baseball should make it hard for the Dodgers to score runs throughout this game. Although Wolf is off to an impressive start, he will more than likely never be the pitcher he once was. He has never had success in the past against the Padres, and although he could be overpowering on left handed hitters, he is not nearly as difficult for left handed bats as he once was. Although the Padres talent mostly comes from the left side, expect them to counter Wolf by putting some right handed hitters that have had past success against him including Cruz. He has never been the type to go deep into games, and is backed by a bullpen that had to pitch seven innings yesterday. The Padres are not the most potent lineup in the league, but one of the few that hit better on the road. They are also a streaky lineup that may have broken out of a mini slump Saturday night. Rockies @ Diamondbacks Play: Diamondbacks -148 Intrinsic Value: -170 Consider Betting Price: -154 Comment: Davis comes into today’s game sporting a 1.64 ERA even though he has not had nearly the stuff he is capable of having on the mound. He has done a good job out of the stretch and getting himself out of jams. In his first game against the Rockies, he allowed 13 base runners in just five innings of work, yet did not allow a run. The Rockies young lineup has not had success against him in the past, as they lack the ideal patience at the plate to force Davis to come into the strike zone. Davis has always performed better at home for other teams, and curtails the power of left handed bats, which is good when pitching in this park. The Diamondbacks bullpen has been pitching surprisingly well so far this season. The Rockies have a dangerous lineup, but have never been that good of a lineup during their road games. This isn’t a good spot for Kim to make his first start of the season. His style of pitching opens things up for left handed hitters, something in which the Diamondbacks will probably put five of in the lineup in today’s game. Kim just isn’t as effective as he once was, seems to really struggle on the road, and is easier to pick up during the day. He has struggled throughout his career against the Diamondbacks, and a few of their hitters have dominated him in the limited at bats they have gotten to see him. The Rockies bullpen is not as solid as it was last year, and have a real problem holding onto the lead prior to the 9th. The Dbacks are a young team that thrives off confidence, something that they are building a lot of early in the season. Yankees @ A’s Play: A’s -105 Intrinsic Value: -141 Consider Betting Price: -127 Comment: The A’s got a much needed confidence boost by showing that they could hang with the Yankees the last two nights. The Yankees showed that the A’s pitchers can get the upper hand on their lineup, and that they might be missing Matsui more than people originally thought. This will actually be the Yankees toughest challenge, as they now have to face the best pitcher on the A’s in Harden. Harden has already shown this year why he is going to be a top three pitcher in baseball for many years to come. He has allowed just two runs in his first two starts, and his ability to mix a nasty slider and change up with his fastball makes him hard to hit for both right and left handed hitters, which should curtail the balance effect the Yankees lineup brings to the table. Although he doesn’t have impressive numbers against the Yankees in the past, a lot of those poor numbers were accumulated when he was pitching with an injury that put him on the DL for a while. He has always been much more dominant at home, where he has put forth a career 3.11 ERA. He is backed by an elite bullpen that has shown they could handle the Yankees bats in the first two games of this series. With Pasada catching two extra inning games in a row, its hard to imagine him behind home plate in this game. For some reason, Pettite has never been a good road pitcher. Being a finesse pitcher, he needs to establish a comfort level on the mound, something that he has never really proved capable of doing away from home. Over the years, he has produced a road ERA nearly a run higher than his home ERA. He is also a pitcher that is more comfortable pitching against hitters that he has a past history against, which will only be the case for a couple of hitters in today’s lineup, which includes Stewart, who has owned him throughout his career. Backing Pettite is an overworked bullpen that is vulnerable prior to Rivera. If the Yankees can’t get to Harden, the A’s have a good chance of avoiding him. The A’s have always been a team that have hit better during the day, and are better suited facing southpaws.