amiller64

Somebody knows something about this one.

 NW -5.5 jumped for me...played it early this morning.

Nebraska lost 9 in a row...always by 5 or more.

Now line is jumping to 3.5 with a huge consensus on NW. [RLM]

How do they trap me like this? You tell me!!!???

For real 

JimKelly and Jdiperrio - thanks guys. Texas was a big thumb in my eye. Up 19-0 at half and refuse to score a point in the 2nd half to get "back-doored". I knew they might be taking it kind of easy with OU on deck, but can I get a FG for *&*& sake. 

9-6 ATS this week. Ill take it. 

2-3 on bets with local. Seem to be a good volume player right now. Still liable to get trapped at the top of the card.

One sure solution, bet more volume with no variance in amount. 

Brings the 5 week total to 48-25 ATS. 

This coming week looks super tasty IMO...

North Carolina + 18.5 -  

Syracuse +22 -  

Texas Tech +4.5  t 

Pitt +14.5 -  

Texas -7 / 8.5 - .

Northwestern +12.5 -  

Florida +8 - . 

Iowa St. +10.5 - 

Duke -3.5/4.5 -  

Penn St. +4.5 -  

Kentucky -1 -. 

Notre Dame -4.5 /6 -  

BYU +17 - . 

LSU -13.5 - 

Oregon -3.5 / 2.5 -  

Solid record sir. BOL!

Whats the inside scoop on your Orangeman? 

Weather a factor this weekend for them? 

Miami + 18.5 - like it plenty - bet with local 

Syracuse +22 - weather scares me - revenge scares me - low confidence -no bet

Texas Tech +4.5  - game unlikely to be decided by less than a TD - Taking the homefield - no bet 

Pitt +14.5 - like the matchup - If I could get more than 2 TD now I would bet it. 

Texas -7 / 8.5 - Two teams moving opposite directions IMO. H2H history not especially relevant. KSU is down. Offense no                                  rhythm. I bet this one.

Northwestern +12.5 - playing the coach and situation. Can NW run defense hold up? Just enough I say.

Florida +8 - defense makes enough plays to keep it close. Mullen is a helpful angle here IMO. 

Iowa St. +10.5 - TCU out of gas and banged up. 

Duke -3.5/4.5 - love the coach in game. QB is clicking. VT defense is down. I bet this one.

Penn St. +4.5 - PSU 16-0 at home run. Covered this # the last 2 times out against OSU. Big homefield adv here. OSU is a public team that I rarely play on. 

Kentucky -1 - hard game to pick. Taking homefield and the team that has won the last sever H2H meetings. 

Notre Dame -4.5 /6 - The Tree's luck runs out against the Irish. I bet this one. 

BYU +17 - probably my favorite play of the week. Scared some by huge consensus on the Cougs. 

LSU -13.5 - 

Oregon -3.5 / 2.5 - scary reverse line movement prevented me from betting this with the local. I would have preferred it stuck at 3.5. Cal's coach is solid and coming off a bye. 

Those are the 15 games on the contest this week. 

Week 1 : 11-3-1

Week 2: 8-7

Week 3: 11-2 (2 games cancelled)

Week 4: 9-6

Due for a subpar week it would seem so be cautious as always. Best of Luck.

Gotta turn this thing in late this afternoon so I am waiting with bated breath for people to drop some knowledge on me and change my mind.

Last 2 games quickly and a wrap up. 

Ole Miss @ LSU -13.5 - death valley at night -715pm EST 

Im laying the points here at home. I know its alot. OLE Miss is very soft on defense. THey cannot rush the passer right now at all. Front 7 is A little better against the run. Both TT and of course BAMA had their way with the unit. 

Offensively Miss is stronger. Very strong at WR. The O-Line is also a strength - but they wont be running the ball much here IMO with this crowd and front 7 opposite. RB is a relative weakness. LSU is clicking right now. Have looked amazing on a neutral feild v. Miami and @ Auburn. This is the first meaningful home game of the year and this crowd will be a serious advantage against a team that will need to consistently convert through the air to keep it close. Dont see it happening for Ole Miss. Turnovers will be a factor. Crowd will be a factor. LSU opens and closes strong for a cover. 

LSU -13.5  - Confidence level 2/5

Oregon -3.5 @ Cal - 1030pm EST 

First thing that jumps here for me is the apparent reverse line movement. opened at 3.5 with a wide apparent consensus on the ducks. Yet the line is now creeping down across a key # to 2.5? This is a red flag for me. I respect this Cal program and what the coach has done with the defense especially. They return alot of players from an overperforming team last year.  Situationally the motivation factor will be advantage Cal. They are coming home off a bye and Oregon must have some level of deflation after that 4th Q debacle last week. Now on the road v a much less prestigious opponent. But you really do have to respect what Oregon and this new coach did last week. they dominated Stanford for 3+ quarters. Defense / front 7 looked very impresssive. A much better coached team than last year IMO. First thoughts were to play Oregon big on the bounce back. But the reverse line movement and the scheduling advantage giving me pause. But still cant see them losing 2 in a row. 

Oregon -3.5/2.5 - confidence level 3/5 (betting this at 2.5 like the man wants me too)

South Carolina @ Kentucky - 1 - 730pm EST

Weather: Partly cloudy - upper 50's - no systems forecast Fri-Sunday. 

Breakdown: This is probably the hardest game for me to take a side on. Had South Carolina pretty big last week @ Vandy. They were coming off a bye and put their best foot forward. Kentucky has been a great story. Two of the programs biggest wins in recent history @ Florida and v. Miss St. Kentucky managed to physically control both of those games. Gamecocks did not look like a Muschamp/top notch Defense when Georgia ran it right through them a few weeks back. B2B road games for SC while Kentucky is home for the 3rd straight week. Kentucky has WON 4 STRAIGHT in this series both SU and ATS. Taking the home field and the team that has won 4 straight. 

Kentucky -1 Confidence level - 2/5

Stanford @ Notre Dame -4.5 - 730pm EST

Stanford and Shaw are a team I have followed closely and play frequently. Like their style of play in general. Their win last week was one of the freakiest luck fests I have witnessed. Oregon outplayed them in every phase and should have won/covered easy. Offense looks weak. Love is not 100%. The offensive line is not quite what it has been in the past. B2B tough road games for the Tree and they are going down in this one. ND looked the best I have seen them in a while last week. Offense clicking hard @ Wake with new QB installed. I see Stanford and Michigan as similar programs with similar schemes and talent levels right now. ND handled Mich at home to open the season; and now their offense looks significantly improved. ND defense have been quite solid. Michigan's run game did little. They return 9 starters off a team that gave up 21ppg; the fewest for the program in 5 years. Notre Dame easy in this one; and I am one to normally jump at Stanford catching significant points. 

Notre Dame -4.5 / 6 - Confidence level 4/5 - bet it 

BYU @ Washington -17 - 8:30pm EST - 530pm local kick 

Scares me with such a consensus on the Cougs here, cause I like them plenty also. Defense is coming around. QB is an old man with alot of experience playing in big games. I do not support the book's evaluation of UW right now. Their lines have been high IMO. Last week they were laying a similar number to Arizona St and never sniffed a cover. They have a new offensive coordinator (former NFL QB coach) this season, and they seem to be employing a more conservative approach, explosive plays are coming far less frequently than last year. No H2H in the last 5 years. BYU is a step up defensively compared to most Pac 12 programs, especially the lower tier. I am backing BYU with confidence.

BYU +17 - Conf. level - 4/5 - bet it

Thanks for the info regarding rotation employed by Canes last week. 

I am always leery when a # jumps out at me as this one has. The UNC rush D is very weak. 

In the final analysis i basically come out thinking I am buying UNC stock pretty low right here. 

Good luck to all!

Iowa St. @ TCU -10.5

Really like Campbell and Cyclones covering big #s on the road. This is not as many as you might hope for given TCU slipping these last 2 weeks. TCU really blew their wad against the buckeyes 2 weeks ago. Looked like shit @ Texas last week. Now coming home to lick their wounds. Last 2 years TCU is 2-9-1 as home chalk. Cyclones are 6-3 as road dogs. But, TCU has won and covered the last 3 H2H and crushed the last 2 times at home. Ho Humm...TCU banged up after 2 tough games and im betting on a flat performance. 

Iowa St. + 10.5 - 2/5 Confidence

Virginia Tech @ Duke -3.5

Duke has really impressed. Love the coach. At home at night. Duke's homefield adv? not great. Actually too bad VT had to blow it last week, as they are sure to come in focused. VT does not at all seem to have the type of D the program is known for.  Duke has totally impressed in all phases so far. Cruising @ NW and Baylor. Experienced team returning and QB playing very well. Had a patsy last week just like VT, except they did what your supposed to. VT win v FSU isnt as impressive in hindsight. 

Duke -3.5 / 4.5 ** - Conf level 4/5 - Im playing this one

Ohio St. -4.5 @ Penn St. 

Penn St. covered this # each of the last 2 games. Outstanding homefield adv here. Haskins is sweet but this atmosphere? It effects most players. 1st road trip of the season. Ohio State's defense is not as dominant at the moment as it has been recently IMO. Gave up plenty of points to Oregon St to open the season (30+ i do not recall exactly, but too many) Gave up alot of yards to TCU, but forced some turns and gave up a misleading 28. Give the points. Should be a shootout. 

Penn St +4.5 - Confidence level - 2/5

Florida @ Mississippi St. - 8 - 6pm Est

To me this line seems to stink. Everything seems to be pointing to a bet on Florida. They looked better last week than Miss St. They played common opponent Kentucky tougher than Miss St. They are running in Miss St. coach with plenty of inside knowledge of the personnel ect. Catching more than a TD? Miss St. does have substantial yardage advantage both for and allowed. Florida came out hard against hapless Tennessee last week, doesnt say much but atleast it was on the road. Hoping that with the coach and having its most experienced team in years will equate to Florida holding it together on the road vs. quality opponent. 

Florida +8 - Confidence level 2/5

Michigan -12.5 @ Northwestern - 4:30pm

Weather: Mid 50's - partly cloudy - non factor

NW coming off a bye and I like Fitzgerald in that spot. Had their starting RB and one of their best players really "retire" this week. Michigan / Harbaugh have history of dismantling bottom half of the conference with easy covers. Line is moving to 14 and maybe higher with UM money coming in. Series has not been played in last 2 years. Last they played was in Ann Arbor and Mich rolled 38-0. I expected more than what I have seen from NW this year. Offense looks sluggish compared to last year and D was torched by Duke. For me I try to look advantages that one teams style/strengths matchup with the others style and strengths. Then I try to look for intangible situational factors effecting effort/motivation. 

I like the situation of Fitzgerald at home with 2 weeks to prepare for a big game. His teams repeatedly steal games from blue chip Big 10 opponents over the years.(Mich St. last year, Penn St and Wisky 2 years before) Stylistically I also feel like NW toughness against the run plays well here. Northwestern is proficient throwing the ball, but this UM pass D is legit. NW run game, which wasnt great, took a big hit this week. Hard to see NW getting to 20. Tough call, but they are all supposed to be. At kick getting 14+ is much more attractive.

Northwestern +12.5 - Confidence level 2/5

Here comes the rest of the card Im playing in this pool/contest. Actual bets as indicated. Hoping for some scrutiny / any angles somebody has, especially for the games in BOLD with **. Thanks and GL to all

Pittsburgh @ UCF - 14.5 - 330 EST

Taking Pitt and 2+ TD here. I see the line has crept down to 13 / 13.5 which wipes substantial value. 

Whenever I see UCF they seem to rely heavily on short passing/screen game. This is a decent matchup for Narduzzi and his style IMO. They press on the line routinely play a hard bump and run man. If they let the guys play some (in Orlando) I can see them giving this offense some trouble. Pitt is a level of talent higher than they are accustomed to, but maybe not by too much. Pitt coming off a loss @ UNC. Not a great scheduling spot but this doesnt seem like adequate respect for the Power 5 team. UCF plays notoriously weak schedule and this is easily this teams and this coaches toughest test so far. 

Pitt +14.5 - Confidence 2/5 - no bet

"Death Valley" at night...

Not a situation to play against the home team IMO...

Not really insight but speculation sure. This Lawrence is a big recruit. He has been playing a few series here and there this season and looked good.

I do not see the team revolting against this kid, or Dabo in any way really. They compete with Bama and surely know well what they have done since subbing in a younger better throwing QB.

Really like the take here.  BOL.

BYU has does nothing but impress v. CAL and @ Wisky. 

Feel like they have been over-valuing Washington these last few weeks. 

Texas -7 @ Kansas St. - 330 pm Est

Weather: Mid 60s - light wind 10-15 mph- precipitation unlikely. non-factor.

Breakdown: I am big Snyder fan. K-State as big road dogs have been some of my biggest plays over the years. Have not liked their spots so far this year. They have been dominated @ WVA and at home v Miss St. Totally non-competitive. They came from behind in week one to nip South Dakota by a couple points. Offensively they have looked terrible. New OC this year, new play caller. They have looked to go a little more WC/pro-style with less designed QB runs. It worked played well and Snyder pulled the Soph QB @ WVU last week; going back to a Junior who played last year and is supposed to be a little quicker/better with RPO ect. He didnt do much down the stretch last week. The strength of the team is O-line right now and the system does not take advantage. The backs, including QB are not strong. 

Traditionally I would be on K St in this spot. Especially with this scheduling scenario for Texas. Just coming off big wins v. USC and TCU...looking ahead to Oklahoma next week. Serious let-down spot in my opinion. K-St is 7-3 SU last 10 in the series.

Usually can rely on a K St. defense being pretty scrappy and forcing some turns...but Miss. St ran right through them week 2, and I see Texas employing a similar scheme and talent level. Hermann has already had one let down this year; can he afford another in this spot? Texas D has been pretty impressive the L2 and I cannot really see this K St offense breaking through against them. Ehlinger has progressed nicely the last 3 games but now on the road where last he and the team took crap all over Maryland's field. 

Texas is pretty beat up. Long injury report. Mostly defensive players. But UT has always had a big talent edge on paper here. Now it seems they may have the coaching and mind-set back it. I land on Texas here because I have seen nothing I can back out of K State right now. 

Take: Texas -7 

Confidence level 3/5

As I have said two other times in these posts, I am gonna try to breakdown/give thoughts on 15 games that I pick as part of a contest. These games are pre-determined, I just get to take a side.

Going to play UNC out of these 3. The other two, probably not. 

Let me know if you have a take on any game. Why Im on the wrong side...ect 

West Virginia -4.5 @ Texas Tech - 12 noon  (BTW the lines here are whats posted in my constest, from Monday afternoon) 

Weather: Overcast mid 70's. Non-Factor. 

Breakdown: Clearly slated for a shootout here? Tech was great last week. Made Okie St. give up in Stillwater. TT also handled a competent Houston team the prior week. Have shaken off their season opener v. Ole Miss. This freshman QB looks electric since making his 1st ever start. Defense is the best they have had in? a while. They have 10 returning starters from the D that posted their best ppg average in 4 seasons. Playing at home, catching points. The offense was in complete control last week @ Okie st. Over 70% completions 398 yards. over 60% on 3rd down. over 600 yards. Dont feel like WVA is a big upgrade defensively over OKST.

WVA hasnt been tested. Tennessee and K St. are both quite weak at the moment, but that being said its 2 power 5 teams they have handled pretty easy. The offense is very good, no secret. They missed week 3 with a weather cancellation and this is their 1st true road game. Last week they dominated K St. 35-6. Snyder has absolutely no offensive weapons this year. They also shut down Tennessee in their opener, Vols offense is inept. WVA has won 4 straight in this series, would have covered this # in the last 3 games. 

I kind of like seeing an alleged consensus on WVA while the line moves down. Not a huge fan of B12 action and neither of these coaches generally gets me pulling out my wallet. Should be a good game to watch. Ill take the team with homefield, the points, and that has best quality win between the two.

Tech +4.5

Confidence level: 2/5