arkadymo

Record: 7-6 +1.96 units / 22.82% ROI

England Championship:

Sunderland top 6 finish +200 risk 0.8 to win 1.6 

Sunderland to be promoted +1400 risk 0.2 to win 2.8 

Sheffield Wednesday to be relegated -280 risk 1 to win 0.36 

Leicester City to win the league -335 risk 1 to win 0.30 

EPL:

Arsenal to win league +400 risk 0.5 to win 2.0 

Arsenal to win league w/out Man City +125 risk 0.5 to win 0.63 

Aston Villa top 4 finish +110 risk 1 to win 1.10 

Luton Town to be relegated -250 risk 1 to win 0.40 

Aston Villa top 4 finish -140 risk 0.8 to win 0.57 

Brentford top 10 finish +2100 risk 0.07 to win 1.47 

Italy Serie A:

AS Roma top 4 finish +325 risk 0.4 to win 1.3 

Salernitana to be relegated -400 risk 1 to win 0.25 

@vanzack

Thanks for all you do. For every hater there are probably 50+ people you're helping make more effective/successful/profitable. 

For what it's worth...

I tail all of your NFL plays. Every single one. Now I might not have access to every line, or sometimes lines may have moved, but I'm still directionally tailing every play. I convert your unit sizing to align with my unit sizing, and then further adjust size (sometimes to 0) based on how different my line/price is vs your line/price. But I'm still effectively always tailing every play. 

I'm very regimented when it comes to tracking performance of any angle I'm betting (as I'm sure you are) and my "VANZACK" results this year speak for themselves: 136 bets placed, 13.06% ROI.

Keep it rolling.

Italy Serie A:

AS Roma top 6 finish -125 risk 1.12 to win 0.88

EPL:

Aston Villa top 4 finish -140 risk 0.8 to win 0.57

Brentford top 10 finish +2100 risk 0.07 to win 1.47

@vanzack 

First of all, great stuff. Love these threads/topics where everyone can get better. 

There have been many times you mention offhand that you’ve got some on the ML and some on the spread (you only track spread for simplicity, I get that). Can you share what cases would make you take both? On the surface, one should be a better price/line combo than the other. I’d guess limits are a big factor, and you could also potentially see some value in diversifying, but would love you thoughts. 

@jesron1269

 This is a bet that excludes City in the standings, so if Arsenal comes in 2nd, and City in 1st then the bet would still win. Practically, this is Arsenal vs Liverpool straight up.

EPL:

Arsenal to win league +400 risk 0.5 to win 2.0

Arsenal to win league w/out Man City +125 risk 0.5 to win 0.63

Aston Villa top 4 finish +110 risk 1 to win 1.10

Luton Town to be relegated -250 risk 1 to win 0.40

Italy Serie A:

AS Roma top 4 finish +325 risk 0.4 to win 1.3

Salernitana to be relegated -400 risk 1 to win 0.25

Hi everyone... been a bit just haven't had time to post, hope everyone's doing well. In this thread I will share any futures I lock in for the rest of the for the major European leagues (just like last year: Epl post-wc preview & futures - Soccer | Covers). Today I was able to finish my work on the Championship and plan to get to the rest of the big leagues over the rest of the week. I will always be re-analyzing during international breaks to see where we should add or hedge. 

England Championship:

Sunderland top 6 finish +200 risk 0.8 to win 1.6

Sunderland to be promoted +1400 risk 0.2 to win 2.8

Sheffield Wednesday to be relegated -280 risk 1 to win 0.36

Leicester City to win the league -335 risk 1 to win 0.30

Happy to discuss any and all. Good luck!

All Soccer Futures Bets: 9-9 +2.80 units

I’m tracking MLS but doubt I’ll have any plays as all of my models are based on points/standings not a playoff system. Be back in the fall when Europe majors start back up… working on adding a few more leagues. 

Lille to finish top 3 +450 (risk 0.36 to win 1.64) [Jan. 25] 

Troyes to be relegated +275 (risk 0.53 to win 1.47) [Jan. 25] 

Ligue 1 Futures Bets: 1-1 +1.11 units

FC Koln to finish 10 +110 (risk 0.95 to win 1.05) [Jan. 26] 

Bundesliga Futures Bets: 0-1 -0.95 units 

Bournemouth to be relegated -155 (risk 2.42 units to win 1.58 units) [Dec. 20] 

Bournemouth to finish last +275 (risk 0.80 units to win 2.20 units) [Dec. 20] 

Brentford to finish top half -112 (risk 2.11 units to win 1.90 units) [Jan. 10] 

Brentford to finish top half -150 (risk 1.20 units to win 0.80 units) [Jan. 25] 

Newcastle United to finish top 4 -134 (risk 2.29 units to win 1.71 units) [Jan. 25] 

Wolves to be relegated +200 (risk 1.33 units to win 2.67 units) [Jan. 10] 

Tottenham to finish top 4 +125 (risk 1.78 units to win 2.22 units) [Dec. 20] 

Crystal Palace to finish bottom half -143 (risk 1.18 units to win 0.82 units) [Dec. 20] 

Chelsea to finish bottom half +2900 (risk 0.07 units to win 1.93 units) [Dec. 20] 

Arsenal to win the league +175 (risk 1.09 units to win 1.91 units) [Jan. 10] 

Aston Villa to finish top half +125 (risk 0.89 units to win 1.11 units) [Jan. 10] 

EPL Futures Bets: 6-5-0 +0.85 units

Back for some clean up... been super busy and unable to post the past few months but Futures continue to be my bread & butter so wanted to close the loop on the season at least. 

I'll finalize each league as they officially finish although each look to be small gains. Still can't believe Arsenal aren't winning the league and Bournemouth are staying up, but what can you do...

Swansea to finish top 6 +400 (risk 0.60 to win 2.40) [Jan. 12] 

Hull City to finish top 10 +300 (risk 0.75 to win 2.25) [Jan. 12]

Blackpool to be relegated +120 (risk 1.36 to win 1.64) [Jan. 12] 

Blackpool to be relegated +100 (risk 1.50 to win 1.50) [Jan. 25] 

Championship Futures Bets: 2-2-0 +1.79 units

Bundesliga Futures Bets

FC Koln to finish 10 +110 (risk 0.95 to win 1.05) [Jan. 26]

Adding other Futures bets (posted in other threads, or new) to this thread to keep the theme for those that care. Rather keep them all in one place and will use other threads for game "weeks" only. Happy to discuss any of them or add details & reasoning. 

Championship Futures Bets

Swansea to finish top 6 +400 (risk 0.60 to win 2.40) [Jan. 12]

Hull City to finish top 10 +300 (risk 0.75 to win 2.25) [Jan. 12]

Blackpool to be relegated +120 (risk 1.36 to win 1.64) [Jan. 12]

Blackpool to be relegated +100 (risk 1.50 to win 1.50) [Jan. 25]

Ligue 1 Futures Bets

Lille to finish top 3 +450 (risk 0.36 to win 1.64) [Jan. 25]

Troyes to be relegated +275 (risk 0.53 to win 1.47) [Jan. 25]

EPL Futures Bets

Bournemouth to be relegated -155 (risk 2.42 units to win 1.58 units) [Dec. 20]

Bournemouth to finish last +275 (risk 0.80 units to win 2.20 units) [Dec. 20]

Brentford to finish top half -112 (risk 2.11 units to win 1.90 units) [Jan. 10] 

Brentford to finish top half -150 (risk 1.20 units to win 0.80 units) [Jan. 25]

Newcastle United to finish top 4 -134 (risk 2.29 units to win 1.71 units) [Jan. 25]

Wolves to be relegated +200 (risk 1.33 units to win 2.67 units) [Jan. 10]

Tottenham to finish top 4 +125 (risk 1.78 units to win 2.22 units) [Dec. 20]

Crystal Palace to finish bottom half -143 (risk 1.18 units to win 0.82 units) [Dec. 20]

Chelsea to finish bottom half +2900 (risk 0.07 units to win 1.93 units) [Dec. 20]

Arsenal to win the league +175 (risk 1.09 units to win 1.91 units) [Jan. 10]

Aston Villa to finish top half +125 (risk 0.89 units to win 1.11 units) [Jan. 10]

Everton to be relegated -167 = NO BET

Just a few quick words on this play - everything on paper makes this a great bet in my eyes. The results/points have not been there as they sit tied for last, two points away from safety. And, the performance has been just as bad - they are 19th in Net Expected Goals this season with performances trending worse over the past 12 games. I have them being relegated under current form at over 80% of my scenarios here. But, the change in coach is a big change. Sometimes a new coach forces the players to prove themselves again, creating better performances and grittier results. Sometimes the new coach just reconfirms that the squad quality and players were the problem. Either way, this is a big enough wild card that I'm not willing to guess on the impact. I'm not saying that Lampard was the problem necessarily - I'm just saying that I don't know and it's not somewhere I'm willing to put my money. 

Brentford to finish top half -150 (risk 1.20 units to win 0.80 units)

See post #14 for the general sentiment on this play. Ultimately, not much has changed and I'm still seeing value. Since that post, Brentford registered 4 more points over 2 games putting them in 8th place. Their performances on the pitch have matched the results as they sit 9th in Net Expected Goals, and 8th when weighting recent form heavier, so I don't have any concerns of regression here... this is where they belong. There is still a clear top 11 of the table so in order for this bet to lose they would need to finish below both Fulham (trail by 1 point but a game in hand) and Aston Villa (lead by 2 points) in addition to Liverpool, Chelsea, and Brighton. While this is possible, it doesn't seem all that likely to me. This team is still being undervalued & underappreciated. Normally would be a 2-unit play but since I already have the position I am reducing it down to a smaller size. 

Newcastle United to finish top 4 -134 (risk 2.29 units to win 1.71 units)

Newcastle have been awesome this year. They sit tied for third in the table with Manchester United and are 3rd in Net Expected Goals - they are legit. With Liverpool and Chelsea both clearly a step behind, the top 4 really comes down to 5 teams with Newcastle, Manchester United, and Tottenham vying for the last two spots. I rank Newcastle just ahead of United, but both are a tier ahead of Tottenham under current form. I find it very hard to see a scenario that Newcastle gets passed by both of those teams and am paying just a little juice. They do have 1-2 more fixtures ahead due to their run in the EFL Cup but having already been eliminated from the FA Cup and no European Football, they don't have any heavier of a fixture load than their rivals.  This is a great team, in a great position, with a pretty good price - I just don't see very many scenarios that they don't finish in the top 4. Big bet. 

Note: this is a completely independent bet from Tottenham top 4 posted on December 20. That bet is likely a loser but that's okay - its a sunk cost and won't prevent me from making this wager that I think is a winner. A lot has changed since that bet and you need to be willing & ready to accept that, adjust, and continue to analyze.