Tiltmachine23

Hey Van, care to indulge us with a little reasoning on the ravens. Seems like Payton has the broncos on the right trajectory and with Nix running and throwing, the ravens defense could be shredded. In my gut I like ravens to play angry and cover, but not sure that’s a great angle for a play, so would love your thoughts. 

@DiamondJack

DJ = the best in the business 

It hasn’t changed because this quarterback is so so bad for Hawaii. He’s 6 for 18 at the helm of a far superior team. Heck the drive before the punt return TD, he missed a wide open TD. 

on the last Hawaii drive where the 3rd down Hawaii first down catch was overturned to incomplete, it was a terrible pass. Should have been an easy conversion. 

also wtf, how did they miss that punt block 

I bet Hawaii -39.5, but I’ve seen enough. Hawaii clearly has no interest in playing up to their ability on their first 3 drives two have ended the same way, 9 yards ok first down followed by 2 incompletes and a punt. Why are you passing it on 2nd AND 3rd and 1 when you’re averaging 19 yards a carry. I could maybe see passing it with the intent on running it on 4th down, but if you’re just going to punt it’s absurd 

It’s on CBS sports network. SMU was gonna get the ball back on 4th and 15 and they got a player ejected for spitting on their opponent. Total joke and automatic first down

Getting dominated at the point of attack and Stone can’t throw anything downfield 

qb draw for a first down oh 3rd and 12–this defense looks pathetic 

Also they didn’t even have a camera angle to cover the last SMU field goal 

Betting -27.5 against the team with the mobile quarterback is not a great college football strategy! College schemes and players are rarely sophisticated enough to consistently be able to scheme against runs and scrambles

it’s just math? The math is that you’re paying juice on both sides when you hedge. When it’s +2000 on Montana State it’s -5000 on on New Mexico. You think “math” supports pounding the +2000 as though the book is offering +ev there. I’m quite sure the math is against the hedge, it’s only justifiable if you can see something that the numbers and algorithms don’t capture. 

Again, you might hedge to ensure some profit but why you’d bet enough on MS to make more than you’d make on New Mexico when the juice is higher (hence the huge spread between +2000 vs -5000) makes no sense from a mathematical perspective.  

hilarious to claim you’re trying to bring value, but don’t post the hedge play until it’s clear your posted play is going to lose. Also as someone who hedges regularly, it’s bizarre that you stood to make more money on the hedge than your conviction play. I, and most people I know that hedge, hedge to ensure a profit or maybe even to ensure a similiar profit on either side, but to hedge in a manner so that you win MORE on the other side is questionable at best 

I know some of you are so good at accessing this info. Anyone have an up to date number on how many playoff games have gone under vs over so far? I feel like if you bet every under, you’d be up a lot so far. 

I’m thinking of adopting this trend..betting all undersc but worried it’ll correct soon. 

Liverpool expected goals to MC was 2.46 v 1.61. MC didn’t deserve to win. They were lucky luv didn’t score 3+ in the second half

Liverpool expected goals to MC was 2.46 v 1.61. MC didn’t deserve to win. They were lucky luv didn’t score 3+ in the second half

Field position doesn’t matter when you can’t defend at all 

@ChOmP

 Hey congrats on the call and the win, you nailed it.  Btw I wasnt saying you didn't have legitimate reasons earlier in your post as to why Michigan would win, I just took umbrage with you saying that "Jim Harbough is winning a National Championship because he is a winner everywhere he goes whether it’s here or the NFL."  To me, that was making it seem like your pick was more predicated on Harbaugh's resume than the other team factors mentioned before.  That's why I singled out that portion of your post to address.

Regardless you nailed a 5 unit play, so I have to respect that. All the best  

I don't disagree with the notion that he's a great coach, but this idea that he's going to win a national championship because "he is a winner everywhere he goes" is silly. He's at 3 wins and 7 losses all time in college bowl games; 2 wins and 6 losses with Michigan. He is 0-1 in the superbowl. He might well win this game, but it's not because
he wins everywhere." His record is actually more consistent with being able to elevate a team to the the cusp of championships, but not being able to finish the deal as he has never won a national championship in the pros or college. 

@jhoss00

Agreed, thanks for the thorough response Van

Van I hold you in high regards, and I often see you take the points, rather than moneyline, when you take a dog even when the points are under 3 (e.g. Alabama +2). I assume you've run the numbers, but could you give me your general rationale. Let's take yesterday for example the lines I had were alabama +2 (-110) or Alabama +115 ML.

On a $100 bet you return 115 on the ML or 91ish on the spread. 115 is 26.3% more than 91. So you're spending 26% more to push on a 2 point loss and win on a 1 point loss. You're obviously much more experienced than me on this so it's not an attempt to undercut, but a genuine curiosity because intuitively it seems to me that not nearly enough games end in a 1 or 2 point margin to justify the juice. 

To layer in another question on bet365 I get early payouts on ML bets when the team goes up 17 or more, so that could be another reason to go ML instead of spread when betting a less than 3 point underdog. I have had instances of the early payout hitting and the team still losing where that insurance has been useful.

I actually dont hate the washington bet, but I am a bit concerned that you seem to think GEORGIA could beat them in the national chamionship game