ayoforyayo

DJ I look forward to your Austria-Turkiye writeup. I smell an Austrian victory in a high scoring affair! 

@CalBear2009

 Derrick Jones Jr. and PJ Washington can defend Brown and Tatum. Look at their size and wingspan plus their defensive stats so far.

Holiday has no shot slowing down Luka. Its BBQ chicken all day for Doncic unless Tatum takes the challenge to guard him which might hurt his offensive production.

You guys are really chasing the dog to get this series to extend out for entertainment huh?

Mavs will close them out in Game 5.

It seems like everyone's predicting the tough gritty Houston Cougs to knock off the soft pretty boy Dukies.

@davemsh

Duke ended up beating ND by 8. They were never truly in danger of losing that game once they woke up.

We"ll see. Duke annihilated Pitt last year in the 1st round of the ACCT and this team is better.

@davemsh

Teams play down to their competition from time to time. A Saturday game on the road vs a terrible team was just a let down spot. I expect Duke to right the ship and play much better vs Pitt.

The road losses to Arkansas (predictable, Superbowl for Arky during the holidays) and to GT (Proctor got hurt in the opening minutes) were bad situational spots for Duke and the team has improved a lot since then.

Duke has neutral site wins over Baylor and MSU so I don't think they're some noticeably worse team away from home.

@jesron1269

Well UNC beat Pitt by 13 so that dropped Pitt's power rating a bit. Meanwhile Duke beat Syracuse by 20 last Tuesday and then faltered a bit vs ND and only won by 8 so that boosted their power rating overall a bit.

I think Duke blows them out as they're hitting their stride at the right time. With a fully healthy lineup of Roach, Proctor, McCain, Mitchell and Flip this team is really hard to defend.

Boston -150

Celtics match up well with the Nuggets so it'll be an interesting series to handicap if Boston pulls off the impossible.

@bobmaloogatimesfive

 Wrong Bob its Marc Davis who's a Celtics hater I believe!

@sfurman

The question is not whether the Nuggets are better, we know that they are.

The question is can the Lakers win a single game? The TWolves won 1 and the Suns won 2 so its not like the Nuggets are incapable of winning games.

@davemsh

I've been betting the NBA playoffs for over a decade and this is a clear trend. My friend and I picked up on it a few years ago. If a team is up double digits, especially at home, its usually a pick em or underdog -whatever for them to come back and win when the majority of the time the favorite actually extends the lead in the 2H or at least doesn't blow the lead.

You're getting major line value based on expected regression from the underdog's level of play when in reality why would they regress if they've played like garbage for the whole half? If you just treat the 2nd half as a new game, the Nuggets should have only been 1 point underdogs since they were 2 point dogs for the full game. Even if you expect regression assuming the 1st half as an anomaly, it should only have been Suns +3 or +4 at most.

You're 100% right and for some reason very few people in the world have caught on. 2H lines in blowouts are mispriced in favor of the underdogs to make a comeback. The favorites are nearly always the right play.

@jesron1269

Chiefs lost to the Bills and Bengals in the reg season.

Eagles steamrolled everyone they played when Hurts was healthy besides a fluke WAS loss where they turned it over 3 times.

@Magic_Steam

 You're neglecting a couple of key points here in your analysis. Purdy is rarely put in a position where he has to make mistakes and the 49ers O Line is the 6th best pass blocking unit in the NFL according to PFF. In addition, Purdy has been the best QB under pressure in the NFL according to advanced stats and rarely puts the ball in harm's way.

A major weakness of the Eagles you and other bettors/analysts/podcasters haven't mentioned is your linebacking core which is undersized and has issues tackling at times. 49ers offense excels at pre snap motion and their passing game relies on getting the ball out quick on crossing routes over the middle to Kittle, Samuel and Aiyuk. Once you get past the 1st level of the defense, it'll be very difficult for Kyzir White and TJ Edwards to stop Kittle/Samuel/Aiyuk which could result in a TD to the house or a massive chunk gain.

CMC and Mitchell will be a load for the Eagles front to stop and the Shanahan scheme excels at getting these guys out in space.

Final point, the 49ers LBers are the best in the league and can neutralize your RB passing game in addition to rushing. Plus Goedert will not be breaking tackles vs them like he did vs the Giants terrible group of LBs. This could make Hurts one dimensional and force him to throw on a lot of 3rd and mediums and longs.

Hurts isn't 100% either and he was sliding early on designed runs last week. 

The 49ers D line has 3 other studs you forgot to mention in Javon Kinlaw, Kerry Hyder and Samson Ebukam. Charles Omenihu is no slouch either. Hurts will be seeing waves of pressure as well.

I think this game will be a classic. Will be just laying off this one and enjoying.

Burrow is an assassin, he will only lose to elite defenses.

Teams haven't had success running on the Bengals with DJ Reeder in the lineup.

Burrow gets the ball out quick and the Chiefs defense is easily the worst unit in this game. Burrow will surgically pick them apart.

And the line is only -2.5 for the Eagles at home?

Both teams have All Star rosters but I think Philly has the better O line while the D lines are washes. Philly has a much better secondary while the 49ers have much better linebackers.

Skill players to me Eagles (Brown, Smith, Goedert) and 49ers (Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle) are about the same.

Seemingly massive edge for Eagles at QB.

Slight edge to the 49ers in coaching.

The line just seems fishy.

@davemsh

 I live bet the Over 82.5 after the last TD since KU will keep taking risks. It'll either pay off for them or end up as costly fumbles and INTs for Arky.

Good start for the Devils! 

On Okie St +5.5 myself, I gotta back Gundy in these bowl games.