Beetlebum

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replied to TheActuary - MLB 08-22-2015 in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by TheActuary: For those of you having a bet365 account, there is an in-play offer for the soccer matchup on Monday between Arsenal and Liverpool. You can win a little bit over $30 risk free by doing the following steps: - On Bet365, bet $80 pre-game on Arsenal @ -133 to win $60 - On another gambling site (Pinnacle), bet $27 pre-game on Liverpool @ +414 to win $112 - On Bet365, bet $50 IN-PLAY (1 minute after the start of the game) on the draw @ +280 to win $140 If Arsenal win: $60 - $27 - $50 + $50 (offer) = $33 If Liverpool win: $112 - $80 - $50 + $50 (offer) = $32 If draw: $140 - $80 - $27 = $33 Thanks for that! I was hoping to place all the 3 bets on bet365 but it might not be allowed by them. View Post \| View Thread	TheActuary	36	August 22, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to TheActuary - MLB 08-16-2015 in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by TheActuary: This offer appears 7-8 times a year. If you bet at least $50 on one bet prior to the soccer game, you get a $50 in-play (you can bet in-play and if you loose, they reimburse you up to $50). So I bet $60 on MC and 30$ on Chelsea prior to the game, and after 1 sec that the game starts, I put $50 on the draw... netting over $30 risk free Thanks man, very smart The only thing that's holding me back is reading the terms and conditions of the offer: Where any term of the offer or promotion is breached or there is any evidence of a series of bets placed by a customer or group of customers, which due to a deposit bonus, enhanced payments, free bets, risk free bets or any other promotional offer results in guaranteed customer profits irrespective of the outcome, bet365 reserves the right to reclaim the bonus element of such offers It says that if you have guaranteed profit they will waive the bet... you tired it before? Thanks! View Post \| View Thread	TheActuary	20	August 18, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to TheActuary - MLB 08-16-2015 in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by TheActuary: For all having a Bet365 account, do not miss the $50 in play offer for the Manchester City vs Chelsea game. You can easily cover all 3 outcomes and net a little bit over $30 risk-free I missed that! How do you do that (cover all 3 outcomes and net a win)? View Post \| View Thread	TheActuary	20	August 17, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Money Ball 8-03-2015 in MLB Betting Hey Key, First of all thank you for your daily picks and analysys, I find them very interesting and useful and a very good base to start from when choosing my bets. I think it's a great contribution to this community and I think the write ups are always spot on regardless of the final result of the game. That being said, I was wondering why you always focus on moneylines and never on under/overs (aside from the UNDER lean of the Jays above :)). Sometimes your feeling of a particular game turns out to be correct, only for the final result to be a L because of a bullpen implosion, a groundball that finds a hole or a fielding error from the third baseman. I think you would do great by using your ranks and point of view to call unders and overs. Moreover, I am personally a big fan of betting overs in baseball because once the over hits, you don't have to worry about it anymore, be it the 5th, 6th or 7th inning. From that moment on no matter what happens your bet is a W. This doesnt happen with ML bets or with the unders: your team can blow a 3 run lead in 5 pitches, or your pitching matchup analysis can be spot on but the under goes to the dogs in the 8th thanks to a bad bullpen performance. I would like to have your opinion on this and know if you think it would make sense for you to include a couple under/overs in your threads. Thanks a lot! View Post \| View Thread	KeyElement	66	August 03, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Anyone knows a good betting strategy? in Systems & Strategies Thanks man, for some reason i haven't received anything yet View Post \| View Thread	Beetlebum	5	July 20, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to mlb plus money system in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by AppleMunch25: HMMMMM i wish somebody would backtest this, love to see the results. Backtested the -1.5 system quickly starting from April 13th (random date) and I was -18 units after 11 days. Cubs and Giants killed me. View Post \| View Thread	jv040	201	July 16, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Anyone knows a good betting strategy? in Systems & Strategies Hi guys, I am looking for suggestions. I have been keeping track of my bets and over the past couple of years i have been hitting about 55% of my bets, but I did't make much money (if at all). I am now following any strategy and I am here to see if someone can suggest one. I was wondering if anyone knows a good betting strategy that allows you efficiently make money if you hit more than 50% of your bets I usually play straight bets with odds between -217 and +149. Thanks View Post \| View Thread	Beetlebum	5	July 15, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Where to find past seasons MLB league trends? in MLB Betting Hi guys, I find that one of the most useful features that Covers has is the League Trends page: https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/trends/league/season.html The trends page is updated with the current season stats... I would like to know if there is a way to also see previous seasons trends. Anyone can help? Thanks in advance! View Post \| View Thread	Beetlebum	1	July 14, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bookies that offer 1st Inning Runs in MLB Betting Thank you guys! View Post \| View Thread	Beetlebum	6	May 29, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Bookies that offer 1st Inning Runs in MLB Betting Hi guys, I am looking for bookmakers that among their betting offer have U/O for 1st Inning Runs. Neither Pinnacle nor 5dimes seem to offer that. Can someone help me? Thanks! View Post \| View Thread	Beetlebum	6	May 29, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to How do you predict value? in MLB Betting Alright, so I have some time this morning to detail my little theory. Just like fullabs said, this is not the holy gray of baseball betting, it's not a system that predicts the outcome of games or anything like that. It's just a simple formula that highlights value in the odds with the help of advanced stats (I use xFIP but it can be done with SIERA too). The first thing I do is convert the odds from american to decimal. You can use any odds converter online or change the settings of any online bookmaker to do that. After that, for the starting pitchers I take the xFIP of their last 40 innings, and I divide the xFIP of the pitcher by the decimal odd. I compare the result between the two pitchers of a certian game and, the lower the number, the more value I have in that bet. Here is an example with today's matchup between DET (Greene) and MIN (Hughes). Odds: Greene -105, which is 1.95 decimal Hughes -103, which is 1.97 decimal xFIP Greene 4.30 Hughes 3.55 "Value" Greene 4.30 / 1.95 = 2.20 Hughes 3.55 / 1.97 = 1.80 Hughes number is lower than Greene's, therefore there is more value in betting for the Twins. Like I said before, this is not a prediction that the Twins will win, baseball is extremely unpredictable and there are other things that factor in a game's outcome, but I use it as a starting point to see which teams is worth betting on. I still make decisions with my head and looking at other things, but this system allows me to see if there is value on the team I want to bet on, and sometimes it helps me stay away from some pitchers I want to bet on. View Post \| View Thread	fullabs11	18	April 29, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to How do you predict value? in MLB Betting I have developed a simple algorithm that helps me find value in baseball matchups. I am using advanced stats such as xFIP and SIERA and so far it has given me decent results. I will post something about this later this week (super busy at work ATM :)) View Post \| View Thread	fullabs11	18	April 28, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2015 RL Underdog Plays (varying risk amounts) in MLB Betting I followed your thread last year with great success. Will do the same this year. One question: how come you are not parlaying your picks anymore? View Post \| View Thread	JoeMahirap	44	April 27, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NFL Over/Unders 128-0, 2009-2012 in Systems & Strategies Pittsburgh at Baltimore - NO PLAY Miami at Buffalo - NO PLAY Jacksonville at Washington - OVER Dallas at Tennessee - OVER Arizona at NY Giants - NO PLAY New England at Minnesota - NO PLAY New Orleans at Cleveland - UNDER Atlanta at Cincinnati - NO PLAY Detroit at Carolina - NO PLAY St. Louis at Tampa Bay - OVER Seattle at San Diego - NO PLAY Houston at Oakland -OVER NY Jets at Green Bay - NO PLAY Kansas City at Denver - OVER Chicago at San Francisco - OVER Philadelphia at Indianapolis - OVER View Post \| View Thread	Danrules24	30	September 09, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2014 RL Underdog Parlay 5-win chase in MLB Betting Anything in particular you like, Joe? View Post \| View Thread	JoeMahirap	186	September 06, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MLB 2014 RL Underdog Parlays 2-win streak in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by JoeMahirap: As for Atlanta, Harang has regained his former Reds pitching awesomeness this year. However, in this matchup with the Marlins' Cosart, sorry man, I am leaning Miami on this one. I liked him when he was with Houston and couldn't believe they let him go because he had control issues. But with the right pitching coach he is awesome like Fernandez and Harvey awesome of whom both are out after having Tommy John surgeries. And he is like 1.67 ERA since he was with the Marlins or something to that effect, and has only surrendered like 2 runs in his last 27 to 28 innings pitched. Good call on this one. I was leaning towards the Braves because it was supposed to be a low scoring game and the ATL needs to win to stay in the wild card race. View Post \| View Thread	JoeMahirap	227	September 06, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to MLB 2014 RL Underdog Parlays 2-win streak in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by jcpicos: Today orioles and royals RL I like these two as well as Mets and Braves. We'll see what Joe comes up with. View Post \| View Thread	JoeMahirap	227	September 05, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2014 RL Underdog Parlay 5-win chase in MLB Betting Quote Originally Posted by JoeMahirap: After losing a 100 bet the following bet should be 140. However, I made an error in the bet amount yesterday, instead of 140 yesterday I placed 100. You see Monday night's LAD and SEA lost -100 Yesterday's PIT and SEA lost and it was -100 instead of -140 So today's parlay is the third game and it should already be 181 risking amount. I caught a break yesterday. I see, thanks for clarifying. I had lost count of the bets :) by the way congrats for the system, it's very smart and balanced. View Post \| View Thread	JoeMahirap	186	September 03, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2014 RL Underdog Parlay 5-win chase in MLB Betting How come risking is at 181? Shouldn't it be 140? View Post \| View Thread	JoeMahirap	186	September 03, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

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