BET2WIN4

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

@BET2WIN4 Pretend you are at an airport and announce your departure.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

NFL Season Record:  -10.5 units Process > Results  Ravens -3.5 (2.5 units) Chargers -1 (2 units) GL all

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

So far this season, I have been very unlucky.  I dont say that as like "I am so unlucky" - some thought that comes to my head or a feeling - truly statistically unlucky. And games aren't playing out the way they have historically.  When big favs are winning at historical rates - I am always going to be in trouble. The key is how much to adjust, not to overreact - unless necessary - which is a very tough thing to do. I put 80 hours a week in to this during the football season.  I assure you - when someone inevitably posts "did you consider the weather" or "how about TJ Watt" - I have considered it.  The game last night is a great example of "unluck", my backtest shows that not only should the Giants have covered - but there were several key plays that if they didn't happen...  Punt return, many 3rd and longs that were converted - untimely turnovers by the Giants etc.... But that happens.  It is all part of it.  If I was getting my chips in on bad situations it would mean changes should be made.  But so far, I havent for the most part.  So I am reluctant to change course. Being down 12ish units is not that big of a deal.  It should be about 12% of bankroll.  Considering I have averaged about 60 units a season in the green for 7 seasons - would you be quick to change your process after 8 weeks down 12?

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by TJZags598: @vanzack  I respect the work you put in.  I lurk, i also consider your perspective. I bet we would have some conversations about football.   Basic question: Do you think all the time you put in is worth it? Great question. I think there is diminishing returns at work here.  I think 10 hours is where I get 75% done, and the other 70 hours are 25%.  But I am an obsessive person, and if I miss a line move because I wasn't paying attention it kills me. It is only 5 months a year, then for 3 months (soccer Feb - May) it is 10 hours - then summers are free. So overall - it is better than a 9-5.  And for me, I have come to accept it is all or nothing.  Character flaw.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

@jowchoo Pressure rates and other sack predictors are at the top of what I track. Amazingly, the team that statistically should win the sack and pressure battles are only covering at about 30%! This is what is driving me absolutely bonkers this season.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

@Crusher13 It is totally characteristic for me.  There isnt a possibility I would be on the Steelers tonight.  This is exactly who I am - no fortune tellers involved. TJ Watt is on a defense that is 25th in the NFL in pressure rate.  Why do you think that is?  Because he can be doubled and the rest of the Steelers front cant get to the QB.  So while Daniel Jones is no prize - and you are always taking risks by backing him - with a clean pocket he can produce.  And the Giants should be able to moderately run the ball tonight. What would be uncharacteristic for me would be to lay 6 points in the NFL based on one player.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by C-70Blues: Quote Originally Posted by wmi799: @C-70Blues  You are the last person who should say this. All you do is complain when someone doesn't agree with your view I haven't called a single person on this board a degenerate. Also, did you play the prop I posted for Monday Night? I wagered a 1/2 unit, that's half of one unit, and I'm way ahead of vanzack who has been posting every week.  It's more advantageous to pick your spots instead of betting half the board every week. Less is more. Now lets do the last 7 years.... I will go first.  Average +65 units per season.  Not one losing season. You? The "pick your spots" position is so dumb.  So I am going to limit myself to a certain number of plays per week?  Some arbitrary quantity in an arbitrary time period?  What if this weeks 4th best pick that doesnt make the list is next weeks best pick?  I win with edges and volume.  When you have an edge, the more  volume the better.  Thats simply how it works. Keep doing your thing.  It is kind of funny how 100 of your 150 lifetime posts are in my threads.  Countdown to 101....

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

If you aren't on 4casters.... Cavemen looking up at the stars. I am trading faster than Jordan Belfort after an 8ball.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Someone on Twitter asked me about if recent results are attributable to variance or something wrong with what I am doing.  This is my answer - it has a lot to do with what people post in my threads here also....   Things change in the NFL. Year to year, week to week. The one change I am most vulnerable to is favorites covering without statistics to back it up. That is happening a lot this year, and even with adjustments - I cant overdo it. This is the most outlier season in the last 10 with regards to that specific situation. So either the NFL has fundamentally changed and the predictors of the last several years are somewhat worthless, or we have had 9 weeks of outlier data and or results. Impossible to tell. Only time will tell. When statistical predictors become less reliable, the market is more random by definition. I do not like risking money on randomness. So my eyes are open. Fortunately, the amount I am down so far is overcomable and not extreme - but I look more at what is causing it that is giving me stomach pains. My backtesting is showing no way for me to win in some weeks. That has never really happened. This is due to randomness. If I want to bet randomness, I will just go to a casino. If you cant have predictors, you cant have success year on year. My set of predictors have proven to be close to worthless this season. Will that continue? That is the only answer to your question. Its not so much that favs are winning (they are). That would be bad, but not terminal. What is terminal is that favs win without the backup of the predictors also. That is terminal.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

As for everything else.... I am on an extended losing streak.  It wont stop what I do.  If you choose to fade, who could blame you. For those talking about whether I am the same, ego, anything else....  I assure you every day is better than the last.  Life is good, and only getting better. I am confident of a turnaround soon. Thanks to all.  Those that support, and those that dont.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

@MRxKrazz Well written post. Gotta give you credit where credit is due. I'm going to be straight with you because I feel like you put time into that and are being straight with me.... I've been doing this at covers in one way or another for about 25 years. Before the last 5 years or so, there were lots of things we take for granted now that were arguments on covers. We used to debate things like key numbers, is juice important, martingale systems, just elementary shit. And now the sports gambling population has a certain base education that it didn't have before.  I mentioned that because it's an example of the evolution, or the learning, that has greatly benefited me personally and one of the reasons I still post here. I have learned so much from being on covers. It's almost sad to me what the site has become, because it wasn't ever like this. It wasn't a pick or handicapping based site, there was a lot of theory and sometimes stupid discussions about everything having to do with sports betting. At some point covers decided to take a turn and dedicate itself towards more handicapping. So today's version of covers really doesn't fit what I can do a good job of providing. I think I'd be a great teacher of gambling studies, but it's hard to make a write-up that is true and not just a narrative of 100 plus plays a year in the NFL. It's just not what I do well, partly because I don't believe there is value in it... Because if my model says the ram should be a four-point favorite over the dolphins and therefore a 2 and 1/2 point spread means a three-unit play, reduced by a half unit because of my current form, That's not typically what people want to hear around here.  But that's the truth. The Rams in my model were 4 Tonight, The dolphins have a lot of negative indicators in this game mainly on the defensive side, and therefore it's a two and a half point play.  I have about 60,000 posts here over the years, and I would say 55,000 of them were before 3 or 4 years ago. I don't get the enjoyment I used to get in debating the intricacies of the week to week NFL, because most people here bet differently than I do. There have been a very select few that have engaged me on the things that I have brought up that I do. Things like modeling, statistics, traction reports, adjusted stats, things like that. That's boring stuff.  So yeah, the old vanzack would write up long narratives supporting my position, but it became a situation where the more talented debater would win those discussions rather than the content of what was written. I don't like that, and I don't think it's productive, and I think write-ups often detract from better results because they are so enticing.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

@MRxKrazz Pretty simple answer and no need to embellish.... I have zigged when I should have zagged, and zagged when I should have zigged - and zigged or zagged when I shouldnt have done either. It is pretty obvious.  This week I moved model settings to allow more favs, because of 9 weeks of favs being shaded - and this week dogs dominate.  Zigged, when should have remained on course.  Chasing ghosts. As far as the vanzack you want...  What about what I want?  Ever think of the toll this puts on me?  Its like I wrote all of that earlier in this thread - and you dont even acknowledge that I am doing this for free and it would have to benefit me to do it - and you just ask again?  It is kind of sociopathic behavior on your part.  If you were my customer?  Sure, I get it.   So if I feel like doing stuff on here I do it.  I recently have had a 24/7 boner because of bitcoin.  Sometimes, I get boners for other reasons.  I tried to explain why giving all the ins and outs of every pick has become less fun for me - but you read right over it and simply demanded the dancing monkey to dance. Think about it.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by RavensOsNHoes: Buffalo has owned Miami and getting points, it must be a trap? lol Winning 11 of the last 12 doesn't mean much to me unless you can provide a reason why that makes sense as a predictor.  Teams change.  Coaches change.  Conditions change. Is there something in those 11 wins that stays static enough to point to as a predictor for tonight? Otherwise, its just a jersey that is either blue or white that a rotating cast of characters has represented. Open to ideas.

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

For those new, or need a reminder – this is what to expect from me this NFL season: What I do: · · Give out NFL sides with widely available spreads / prices · Assign a unit value of 1-5 · Keep a posted record · Games posted between Sat night and Sun morning, and day of game for Thurs / Mon games. · Release all at the same time · All are based on my own personal process developed over time which consists of a simulation model, and lots of experience. What I won’t do: · Ask for money (I actually make more money than it would ever be worth to tout) · Make any affiliate money (I make money from sports gambling) · Give out plays that I don’t bet with my own money (I make money betting) · Keep vig in my units record. Assign whatever vig you want. One of my core principles is finding best lines and prices. If you choose to pay -110 for something that is widely available at -102, then that is on you. I don’t mind if you assign -110 to all of my plays – do whatever you want. I post very fair widely available lines that average -104ish prices. I have had 7 winning seasons no matter how much vig you assign. Why I do this: · I have been in the online sports gambling space for 25 years. I like it. · I will occasionally ask you to support your local animal shelter. I like to think that some do. My Record: · I have won documented for 7 straight seasons. Last season I won 64 units, and went about 58% (which has been about average for the 7 year run). Probably means I am due to lose. You bet, you take responsibility. What I ask from you: · Play nice at all times. Remember what you are paying for these picks · If you win, or if you lose and had fun – please consider donating to your local animal shelter

Quote Originally Posted by camby700:

Lotta guys  piling on the Legend LG.. Chin up buddy.. This stuff ain't easy

Quote Originally Posted by GamzOver:

@Tecnara1994  He bumped it to show his GOY never loses. I'm following his 100 unit play tonight on the Steelers. I put 200k on them