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I get to pay for a service and give you my phone number? WHAT A GREAT DEAL |
CrowdCapper | 6 |
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[/Quote] Yeah man... you gotta stay smart... go though the weeks lines, pick the ones that stand out to you, then cap them throughout the week. I have locked in maybe two games Saturday. Two tonight. If I go down I stop, if I go up with my early day games, I bet mid day games, so on so fourth.[/Quote] This is what I usually do too. Go through and look at the lines that I really like, but then try to find a reason not to bet it. Lines that look good are usually meant to look good, so what is going on to make me want to bet that game? I have a whole spreadsheet I go through for each game to document things I find important for each game, then choose a side or total to bet. After locking in who I like, I bet the games in progression throughout the week/day and look for reverse line movement and other tells you can get from last-minute line movements. |
Tappy | 23 |
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I seem to find more value in Thursday night games than I do most days. Friday I've found is off limits. I once heard it called "bookie's day" on here and it has turned out to be true more times than I can count. The thing I like about Thursday night games is that they are usually no-name opponents and the lines aren't very sharp and there are big swings in the games so you can pounce on an inflated live bet and wait until the momentum swings the other way to grab a nice middle. Worst case you lose the juice, but more times than not you can win them both. Of course, I make most of my money live betting, so this may not work for everyone. |
Tappy | 23 |
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Quote Originally Posted by King Creole42:
could someone post their respective records??tia
Gotta love people like this....
Hey someone, do all the work for me!!! |
steponaduck | 44 |
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Quote Originally Posted by mugz:
Spartans can’t stretch the court and Duke can. That usually means a lower scoring first half because Michigan State needs to slow the pace to win. MSU has some shooters so they can stretch the floor. Don't forget MSU loves to push the ball off defensive rebounds to get quick buckets. If Duke doesn't get back, MSU can score in bunches very quickly. |
xinstory1990 | 6 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Zoot: so sc barely got by TX who got beat by MD who got blown out by UCF. Thats how you handicap games? And Wash St Hasnt played BYU this year do some research before posting I'm guessing he meant BSU, since they barely won that game. Wazzou is a tough team to cap this year, but they are usually a pretty solid bet as a home dog on a Friday night. I'm personally on the Under, so no dog in the fight as long as they keep the score down.
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tigerdeano12 | 23 |
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Do you know if Rypien is playing yet?
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Tappy | 14 |
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Quote Originally Posted by haydenvalley: You are RIGHT, Butta4 ! What do you think of UCLA +14 on the tease ? Stanford is such a strange team this year, but so is UCLA. How is the UCLA rush defense so bad? Memphis ran all over UCLA, and Stanford is still a good rushing team. Stanford can't stop anyone doing anything... It I were to pick a side here on a teaser it would be UCLA +14, but I think teasing the Over down to 52 on the total might be better. Neither team can stop the other's strength which usually leads to high point totals.
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haydenvalley | 35 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Tappy: You keep saying Michigan struggled against Florida, give me examples of how they struggled? They dominated that game outside of two early pick sixes. After watching them struggle against Florida, I said ok... I'll give them another shot before I fade them... then I watched them struggle against Air Force, so I'm all over Purdue (who I watched completely dismantle a good Missouri team with one of the best QBs in the SEC) I'm all over Purdue +10 You've been hot, but I think you're on the wrong side of this one.
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haydenvalley | 35 |
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Put Michigan in with your other favorites and parlay them together. That game will not be within 17 points. Michigan's defense is too fast, athletic, and physical for Purdue to do much on offense. They won't score more than 17.
That means Michigan has to score 28 or more to win. Do you really think they are going to be as bad this week in the red zone as they were last week? Purdue didn't become a power program over one offseason. They are outmanned at every position and it will show during the game. Final score will be 38-17.
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haydenvalley | 35 |
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Adding Auburn/Missouri Under 60
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Butta4 | 6 |
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I've only locked in 3 for far this week:
Michigan -9.5 (biggest bet of the year) ND/MSU under 54 Virginia +13
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Butta4 | 6 |
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replied to
Did anyone see the Penn State Coach try to ice the Georgia State kicker up 56-0 w/ 11 seconds left?
in College Football
I get it. He's sending a message to his team to play until the clock hits zeros. I can't stand the guy, but he's gotten that team back to national prominence faster than anyone thought he could.
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scalabrine | 44 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Tappy: I watched Purdue dismantle a good Missouri team, terrible defense, but great QB. They have been impressive. I watched Michigan struggle against Florida and Air Force. Purdue + is my biggest bet of the year. You must be the only person on the planet that thought Michigan struggled against Florida....your point of view on games cracks me up.
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DoubleUp4Life | 52 |
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Here is my take on it, Michigan covers easily. The reason is simple...defense.
Michigan defense thrives playing against spread offenses. They chew them up and spit them out. If Michigan score 24, which they will, they cover the spread. Michigan defense points against the spread since Down Brown arrived: 14 - Cincinnati 3 - Florida (offense only scored 3) 20 - Ohio State (double overtime, 1 defensive TD, an interception returned to the Michigan 13 leading to another TD) 10 - Indiana 3 - Maryland 8 - Illinois (4th quarter TD against 3rd string) 0 - Rutgers 10 - Penn State (yes, that Penn State) 28 Colorado - The one anomaly but proved to be a very good offense. 14 - UCF 3 - Hawaii 10.2 is the average offensive points per game the Michigan defense gives up against the spread. Michigan is averaging 32.6 points per game with the offense struggling. I'm no rocket surgeon, but this one seems pretty easy to me. Purdue may have some confidence, but how quickly does that confidence go away now that they are playing the first good defense on their schedule? What does a few three and outs do to their psyche? The question you have to ask yourself, do you really think Purdue has gotten that much better from last years team? The same team that lost to Wisconsin 49-20 which would be the closest comparison to this game. Anything under 17 is a steal in this game. It's the one game this weekend that the books screwed up and it's because of a perfect storm of Purdue looking very good against terrible teams (sans an average Louisville team) and Michigan not blowing out some decent teams. Good luck if you're backing Purdue, but I don't see how this game is close. Just remember, this simple phrase "Michigan's defense owns the spread offense." |
DoubleUp4Life | 52 |
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4-1
11-6 overall for the year. |
Butta4 | 6 |
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Quote Originally Posted by MikeMed: He is really only 37%.............That cannot be right.......He picks the SU favorite every time I see him pick. He's not talking about the spread, just who wins the game straight up. Dogs cover more in big games, which is why his record is what it is. I'm sure his pick to actually win the games is much higher.
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scalabrine | 7 |
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3-3 Week 2
7-5 Overall Week 3 Picks: UCLA -3.5 Clemson ML Iowa State -9.5 Purdue/Missouri U78.5 Oregon -13.5
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Butta4 | 6 |
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4-2 Week 1
Week 2 Picks: Indiana -3 Oregon -14 Michigan -35 West Virginia -24 Oklahoma +7.5 4-Team ML Parlay: Syracuse, Oregon, SMU, Navy A lot of chalk this week. Let's see how it goes.
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Butta4 | 6 |
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replied to
Everyone posting is barking for the DOGS! U want the SQUARE side w/ the FAVORITE! I have it HERE 4U!
in College Football
Hey Scal, just wanted to come back and give you props on this game. You saw the right angle and it worked out for you. Cheers!
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scalabrine | 51 |
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