CrowdCapper

@HEADMASTER

 3 and 1 daily, congratulations, you are officially the best football handicapper that ever lived.  When you consider that in the Super Contest, with 1500 or so of the top handicappers in Las Vegas and around the country entered, in the last 25 years, the winner has never hit 70% much less 75%. As a matter of fact, the winner has hit over 65% twice, That's only picking, five games a week,  you hit three out of four every day.  I wonder if  you are appreciative of the amazing talent you have for handicapping NFL games.  Seriously do you think I could get your autograph,  I am sure when more people find out about your amazing record, it will certainly be worth a lot of money.

Always looking for the angle,

Crowdcapper Out

@CrowdCapper

 LoL    Covers replaced F***** in my post with the word person.  I am kinda glad they did, because I don't use that kind of language, just was making a point. 

@sudotech

 Obviously they are fixed -  I mean an NFL coach can't get away with saying person in an email from 10 years ago.  But the whole league is in on the big fix in cooperation with the bookies.  I mean who couldn't figure that out. 

Come On Man!

Always looking for an angle

Crowdcapper Out

Sounds a little like the theory behind CROWDCAPPING where they try to identify a large group of players along the time line, who are grossly under preforming the expected long term 50/50 expectation. Then they follow these players, as they regress upward toward the expected mean. Betting on the under performer to rise, is a better indicator than the over performer to fall toward the mean, as the over performer may be relying on information, to out perform the market.  The under performer  is probably based on randomness, which will eventually move toward the median in a efficient marketplace such as sports betting,  Could that be the future of sports handicapping?

Always Looking For The Angle, 

CrowdCapper Out

@brysonlee

 I think you are really on to something here,  I mean a famous coach can't dodge a 10 year old email and lose a 100 million dollar job.  But we have all these people involved in fixing games,  players, bettors, referees, or somebody is fixing something, I mean during the two-minute warning the reef's get together in the locker room and call Vegas and ask, Ok what do you guys need us to do here,  and they have gotten away with for what 50 or 60 years.  Yes that makes perfect sense to me. 

Always Looking For The Angle

CrowdCapper Out

@starxx

 My advice and I am sure there will be tons of disagreement is this  NEVER HEDGE TO LOCK UP PROFIT - In reality you are not locking up anything, you forget about all the losing parlays you have made to finally be in a position to get a big score, and you want to cut your profits in half by hedging?

Hedging only makes sense if the last game you have going, something has fundamentally changed to alter your opinion on the outcome of that game. If not, then you are only making another bet,  you are not "hedging anything"

I would suggest if the payoff on the parlay is so large that you can not resist the urge, or do not have the heart to play it out,  bet less on your parlays. 

Always looking for the angle,  CrowdCapper Out

@fts1409

 In the early days you could bet the classic Wongs  1 1/2,  2 1/2, up and   8 1/2, 7 1/2 down at even money.   it was a gift from the gambling gods,  I made a fortune playing them in the 1970 and 1980s.  In the mid 90's bookmakers wised up and started making bettors lay -110,  I think that might still be a positive EV,  although much smaller but  another factor has come in the mix.  The average NFL total is much higher today. Obviously moving the line 6 points is has much more value in a game where the expected finals in is the low 40s,  than in the low 50s.  I do not believe in today's game betting the Wong teaser is a positive EV, although probably not any worse than the EV of straight bet on a game.

Here is another tip about six-point 2-team teasers,  in Las Vegas if either side of the Teaser pushes, it is no bet, not matter if the other side is a winner or a loser.  Tourist often throw a ticket away if the 1st team is a loser,  Sweepers look for those, and if they get a push in the 2nd game,  might be  a $500 or $1000 tip for them as they can cash it in as a no bet.

Always looking for the angle      CrowdCapper Out

@LB_Dirtbags

 Somebody said Indiana was Jim Feist's College Game Of The Year.

@Gamebreaker23

I agree with your theory but more in baseball, and betting underdogs,  first of all, easy to find 10 cent line in baseball,  football is always 20 cents  And even more than in football, the public likes to bet the favorite, the perceived stronger team, that is not lost on bookmakers who shade the favorite in baseball even more than in football.   That means that you are much more likely to have a positive EV in a baseball parlay,  there is almost never a positive EV in a football 4-teamer,  I mean you are taking 11 to 1 on a 15 to 1 shot.

The 2nd point that comes into play, not only are a baseball underdog parlay a better bet than a football parlay, a underdog four teamer sometimes will pay you 40 to 1, 50 to 1 on your cash.  If you can resist the urge to hedge when you have the first three in, (the dumbest thing in sports betting)  I agree with you that underdog baseball parlays can make some sense.  

Crowdcapper  Out

You hit on two important points, if you are a 57% handicapper, you will make a lot more money betting 100 games than betting 10 games.

A legitimate 57& handicapper (which would rank you in the top maybe 1% of all football bettors) could go  1 and 9 in a ten game streak, but if he bets 1000 games, you van set your watch he will be 570 and 430 or within a couple games of that result.

@TRAIN69

 ZINGER TRAIN

@bluecompass

 Yes you are probably right but I know at least 50 big time players in Las Vegas that disagree with you. 

@CrowdCapper

I have no idea why my post is here three times,  i guess i must be even dumber than I look.

@CrowdCapper

@Gamebreaker23

 Just another 2 cents here - I have been around professional sports bettors on both sides of the counter since the 1970s in Las Vegas. I can tell you that professional sports bettors play a shit-pot full of games. If they are long term 57%  that percentage shows up better if you play 100 games than if you play 10.  Billy plays 30 to 40 plays a week during a football weekend.  If you do not know who Billy is, you have not been paying very close attention.  I do not know much, but I do know this, there is no professional betting syndicate in Las Vegas playing FOUR GAMES,  Crowdcapper out

Just another guys 2 cents here,  but I have been around professional sports bettors on both sides the counter here in Las Vegas for almost forty years. I can tell you that professional sports bettors play a shit-pot full of games.  Billy plays 30 to 40 games on a football weekend,  if you do not know who Billy is you should pay closer attention. I do know this, not saying its right, just saying it is what it is......no professional sports bettor  (the wise guys  you hear about) is playing just four games. 

@Gamebreaker23

 I can tell you that being around professional sports betting, on both sides the counter in Las Vegas for over 40 years Professional sports bettors play a shit-pot full of games. It is not unusual for Billy to bet 30 games across a weekend.  (If you do not know who Billy is, you have not been paying close enough attention) If you can hit 57% winners you are much more likely to hit that figure betting 100 games than betting 10 games.  Just my two-cents worth, but I can tell  you there is not one professional betting syndicate in Las Vegas (the so called wise guys)  betting four games.

@Mancity

 I am an advocate of free speech in public forums.  I do have a caution for the poster however,  do not lean too far, or you might fall over face first into a pile of Jaguar shit,

@sandyman

 I knw they are scared too death of CROWDCAPPING®  They have barred every player on that platform.

Free way to get the CROWDCAPPING® take on your top play of the week.