CalBear2009

Dam this guy killed it this past weekend, wish I saw this post before the games started. GL tonight on the Bucs!

Army has been steamrolling their competition and we can get them here for under a TD?  Looking at North Texas' past games, they have been moving the ball quite well but have been on the bad end of luck with turnovers.  Still feel compelled to take Army here, anyone else have insights into this game?  Would be much appreciated!!

Line is up to 14 now, still like it at that number?

How was this a POY? Could understand a close loss, but this was so far off it seemed like the opposite side should have been the POY.

Dan Lanning is a real jackfuck for that, no class

Navy 1H -6.5, it’s a 1 pm game and it’s Jose Alonso’s POY

On Bills -6 big for me, GL

@JoseAlonso787

FYI, Stuckey from Action Network is on Rice +12:

The service academies don't usually fall victim to situational spots.

However, it's certainly possible Navy comes out a bit flat in front of an empty crowd in Rice Stadium the week after losing its first game of the season to Notre Dame, which all but ends its outside shot at a College Football Playoff berth.

I should first mention the quarterback news in this game since I'm taking a bit of a leap of faith, especially with Rice.

I'm assuming starting quarterback EJ Warner will return to the lineup this week after missing last week's loss to UConn with an injury. A true freshman got the start in his place, and the Owls offense was predictably lifeless.

After transferring in from Temple, Warner had started to play better in the new system before his minor injury.

That's actually true for the entire Rice team, which has trended in a positive direction following its bye week (sans last week, which you can essentially throw out the window without Warner) with a win over UTSA and a misleading final score loss to Tulane.

In that game against the Green Wave, which was tied in the fourth quarter, the Owls actually finished with more total yards but couldn't overcome a -5 turnover margin (0-5).

In those two contests, Warner threw for 618 combined yards, leading an offense that surprisingly has the third-highest passing rate in the country.

Speaking of turnovers, on the season, Rice has a -8 turnover margin and has scored on only 64% of its red zone trips (only Houston has a worse percentage), including just 11 touchdowns on 25 trips inside the 20-yard line.

Meanwhile, even after last week's disastrous result against Notre Dame, the Midshipmen rank in the top 10 nationally in red-zone scoring rate on both sides of the ball and still boast a +6 turnover margin.

There's no doubt that Rice has been quite unfortunate in a number of high-variance areas, while the opposite is true for Navy.

Like last week, the turnovers could also rear their ugly head again, especially if quarterback Blake Horvath's thumb injury is limiting in any way. In fact, Horvath also missed time last year with a thumb injury.

While he should play this week, it could certainly be an issue against a Rice defense that has already faced another service academy earlier this season and has faced a bevy of mobile quarterbacks.

There's also hope Rice can get its ground game going to help Warner out against a Navy defense that ranks 122nd in Rush Success Rate even with a strength of schedule that ranks 132nd in the country.

The pass defense numbers look very good, but keep in mind the Midshipmen also played a schedule filled with completely inept aerial attacks outside of Notre Dame and Memphis, which combined for 95 points.

I like backing bigger 2-6 underdogs that have shown signs of improvement.

This is really the Owls' last gasp at keeping their bowl hopes alive. Plus, this week, Rice might have some extra juice and new wrinkles under a new interim head coach after firing Mike Bloomgren earlier this week.

There's definitely a lot of uncertainty in this game with the coaching change and both quarterbacks dealing with injuries, but I couldn't pass up this line.

Projection: Rice +8.9

Pick: Rice +12 (Play to +10.5)

Tailing the POY also, ty for posting and GL this weekend

The Favorites podcast on Spotify, those guys actually love the Bills -6 this week. Would listen to that before taking a side on this game.

What happened to just having integrity and being a stand up guy that does what they're supposed to?

My personal thoughts are that breaking your own integrity and changing yourself from a person who does what's right to being a snake is of greater value than the money that was owed. In other words, I think you lose more stiffing your guy over this from a personal integrity standpoint. Just my 2 cents.

Before the injuries to Godwin and Evans, the line for this game was Bucs -2.5 so that's a 5 point move for those 2 players. Do they justify that? I sort of think so, but typically in these cases the line moves too much and you should be taking the team with the injured players. Just another perspective on this game.

@2001bmw

If it were as easy as "playing teams that sucks and opposite of what it appears to be" then folks would be killing it, but they are not. It's not that easy.

If you're referring to the Vikings Rams game last night, at first glance you would think Vikings. But there were a number of factors in favor of the Rams such as the situational spot (Vikings playing tough Lions team the week before and facing a "Lions hangover" and going on the road on a short week), the Rams getting healthier with getting Kupp and Nacua back, and the game planning of McVey, Stafford, and Kupp....that is a special connection. Lastly, Vikings were near the top in luck rankings, while Rams were near the bottom. That's way so many pros were on Rams.

Definitely not scripted imo. If it were, then you got it all figured out and should be making millions.

There is a thing called the Lions hangover where teams that played the Lions the week before, end up coming out flat the week after.  It's happened to every single team the Lions have played this year. Something to keep in mind.

Also, the Rams are getting healthier with getting Kupp back.

Lastly, the Kupp/Stafford/McVey combination is top notch.

I agree this line looks weird and seems way too short, but keep in mind Vegas doesn't give money away. This game will likely be very close given the points above: Vikings played a very taxing game last week, now have to go on the road on a short week, Rams getting healthier, and that Kupp/Stafford/McVey combination can scheme up some things then you can see the other side and a case for why the Rams could cover.

Had this one circled since last week and grabbed Pitt as soon as the line came out. GL tonight.

Love this one myself, was on Pitt as soon as the line came out. GL tonight!

Defender led with the crown of his helmet so defenseless player or not, it should not matter. Cal played them tough, was a good game.

@nymick

How does it feel to look like a stupid ass?

Told you guys 

Asked for input, got it from a die hard Cal fan, but went the other way? That’s a deserving loss 

The situational spot is great for Cal. Miami won a nail biter last week then has to travel cross country to play a night game against Cal who’s off a bye and had 2 weeks to prepare in front of a crowd that is pumped with College Gameday happening for the first time there. Cal also was able to use the bye to get a bit healthier as the team was a bit banged up.

Miami is the more talented team and they have a great O-line with some massive size so they should have the advantage in short yardage situations. 

I’m on Cal +10 as I think it can be hard to really bring it week to week. Cal is rested, hungry, and the atmosphere should be electric.