corkymonster11

What do you think of Philly with Arrieta at -117 today?  

better pitcher and about even offenses

2800 to win 2000.    3300 to payout 5300 or 14,000

5600 to win 4000     6100 to payout 10,100 or 14,000

7000 to win 5000     7500 to payout 12,500 or 14,000  

I'd lean right in the middle of 5k-6k on Boston.  Not a bad return.  

Agreed. Had it at -110. Good luck. ??

Sounds good to me.  Miss your plays every day.  Used to get up and try to guess what you would pick each day.  Taught me a lot of Value.  Wish you well and good luck in playoffs.

Key! you are back!

Would have to agree with you but I still think Kershaw should be around -180 vs Gio.  Maybe a slight adv to MIL for offense over the past few weeks.  Would still think -155 is about .25 cents off?

Thoughts?

I will be there tonight as well.  Cubbies had the advantage on paper with Mil numbers vs Quintana.  That Brewers team is steaming right now.  Tonight is about as even as it gets.  I got this game 4-2 either way.  Freeland has slightly better numbers then Lester but this is playoff baseball and Johnny Lester has shown up in the past.  We will see what the Kid has.  The Juice at .34 cents is for the home team and is a little high if I'm being non-bias.  No value either way for me on the bet. Total is spot on at 7.  

Invest 10,840

+204

ROI + %1.8

Back on track ready to go.  Will be on a bit of a gambling bender with the derby tommorow.  GOOD LUCK this weekend.

Today I like these

Toronto -160 

 Happ is looking quite impressive.  8 SO's in each of his last 3 games.  WHIP is down.  This is against a spot starter Kittredge.  Would compare this game to the Indians and NY game with sabathia pitching much better then tomlin.  That juice is -200.  

Boston/Tejas Rangers U9

Porcello is Boston's best starter right now.  Looks to get his team back on track.  Then there is the legend that is Bartolo Colon.  Great command again this year.  Able to go 6-7 innings.  I see this as more of a 3-1 type game.  9 seems very high to me, was guessing around 7 to 7.5.  I'll take these two in a nice battle tonight.

White Sox +146

Always tough backing a team that hasn't performed up to speed.  This is how I feel about Cincy everytime I click on the plus moneyline.  Here we have two starters over performing.  Berrios is coming back to reality after a great couple starts in beginning of the year.  Fulmers last two starts have been fantastic against seattle and KC.  I'd take this as a pretty even matchup today.  .46 cents is nice value here.

Pit MIL u8

Very interesting match up. Kingham had perfect game into the 7th last time out.  Guerra has been fantastic to start the year.  I see him pitching another tough outing since he didnt get the win against the cubbies last time out.

Cubs/Cards U8

Quintana is still a number two in my book and he can shut this Cards team down.  Mikolas has gone 7 innings each time out with a WHIP under 1.  Both these teams are the last two ranked offenses in the last 7 days.  

Invested 10520

profit 84.50

ROI +1%

Been a steady climb back. Yesterday went 5-0. Just one play today

Dogders -110

Ryu much better then Godley this year. Easy value here at Even juice. 

Leaned mets but that Atl offense can erupt anytime. 

Good luck all

3-0 start. 

Looking to to get into the black overall after tonight!!!

GL

I'd be careful of Gray and Hendricks.  Both are decent ground ball pitchers and 11 is pretty high

It'd be Sale and Junis.  

Good luck today.  On a couple of the same.  Completely agree with Archer

Overall Invested 9977

Profit -450

ROI = -4.5%

A month in and we can start to see some trends.  Offenses will start to get consistent.  Pitchers have some performances to base value on.  Letsssssss GOOOOO

Today

Miami -110

Garcia has been the marlins best pitcher by far.  WHIP of .81.  17 innings and 1 ER.  Now will this last? who knows, but right now he is worth a 50/50 Juice line against a spot starter in Effin.  Marlins offense is starting to come back to the middle of the pack as well.  Nice Value here

Detroit +128

Boyd has been pretty good to start the year.  This is a play based on Archer being overvalued thus far.  Will he come back into form?  Again who knows? But for now the Value is to fade him at 28 cents of juice.

Cubs/Rockies U11

Yes the weather here in chicago is finally warmer and very exciting.  My Cubbies offense isn't firing on all cylinders yet.  Even with this wind blowing out. 11 is very high for Hendricks and Jon Gray.  Gray has the ability to keep the ball down and create ground balls.  We all know thats the Hendricks the "professors" specialty.  I'll take U11 here.

Seattle -120

I like King Felix at this price at home with a better offense then oakland.  Triggs has bene good but I see value here at -120

San Diego +110

I see Value with Tyson Ross here.  Suarez comes in as a spot starter.  Does well but not enough to really Cap him fully.  

Good luck to all today.

Good luck Key! Hopefully Hamels can help you out today

Yesterday 3-2

YTD Invested $9080 -$320

ROI= -%3.5

Fighting back. Lessssssssgo

Reds +117

Better pitcher in Bailey.  Even offenses in last 7 days.  Take 17 cents all year with these type of matchups and hopefully be ROI at 17%.  At least thats the goal. VALUE

Mets/Cards U7

Two pitchers that have been pretty much lights out.  3-1 game in favor of Cards.  Leaning cards as well with the much better offense but Noah should keep them under control for the first 6 innings.  I like the under here.

CLE Indians -112

I actually love Paxton and for the most part usually bet him because of his value.  Cleveinger has been much much better and the two offenses have been similar.  Taking the tribe at 12 cents juice.

Boston/Tor u8 -120

Even with the high juice I really like this play.  Both offenses struggling.  Sale could go 7-8 scoreless and Estrada has always been a bulldog, just needs to keep the ball in the park.  

KC -1.5 +130

Sox Giollito has really stuggled. Meanwhile Junis has been fantstic.  I think he shuts this sox team down.

Leaned Baltimore but Tampa offense is starting to heat up.  Bundy is in much better form then Archer right now.  Scary pick at -120.

Also, I don't bet agaisnt my cubbies but MIL @+140 is great Value.

Good LUCK TEAM!!!

Tread Lightly.  

Yesterday 0-4 :/  Vegas won yesterday.  

YTD Invested $8546  Profit: -$421

ROI -%4.93

Looking for value over the season.  Lets get back on Track

Angels/HOU u8.5 

Verlander has been unstoppable and with this Angels offense struggling (except for trout) I can see him going another 7-8 innings of 3 hit ball.  Tropeano has been decent.  I'd say this is about 1.5 runs to high for a line.

Hou -1.5

Justin Verlander ^^^^ 

San Diego +143

Tyson Ross is been in fantastic form to start the season.  On the ther side Jonny Gray has had good control but has been getting pounded.  These two offesnes are not to far apart considering they play in two ballparks that are complete opposites for offense.  I like san diego to get a win.  Maybe 6-3 finish. I'll take plus 43 cents here.  

Tampa Bay -108

Didn't play yesterday.  Same money line today. The jist of it is that I like FARIA in his last two outings.  Alex COBB 10 hits in both outings going only 3 innings.

Cubbies +104

Trust Jonhny Lester and my Cubbies hitting.  I'll take plus money with him against a bottom half offense.  Fun pitching matchup here.  

Lean---- San fran/Wash u7  

Would like to catch this at 7.5 and I will play it.  MAX has been fantastic.  Washington offense is struggling right now.  The shark started off well and could very well shut down the Nats.  

ANYONE on Kershaw at -360????!!!

Adding Boston -115 

porcello better form as of late then Happ. Nice value. 

YTD Risked $8087.50 +37.50

ROI= +.4%

Lets have a Tuesday

TWINS/Yanks U8 -110

Berrios has been fantastic with a WHIP of .6.  Add That along with a struggling Minny offense and I see a 2-1, 3-2 game here in the yanks favor.  

ATL -121

Mccarthy a much better pitcher this year and ATL has the advantage on offense.  ATL at -121 is nice value here.

Tampa Bay -112

FAria is starting to bet back on track in his last two outings while Alex cobb has only gone 3 innings and given up 10 hits in each of last 2 starts. I would also put Tampa Bay offense ahead of Baltimore in the last 7-10 days.  -112 is an easy one here.

More to come.  Alot of nice lines today.

GL

Addidng P

Pit -110

Taillon is in mich better form then arrieta.  Should be around -130 if we are just looking at pitching.  I'll take even money with a pitt offense that has been better then philly.  

GL 

Yesterday 1-2 -1.1 units

Overall

Invested-7250

ROI= +190......+2.7%

TODAY....

Tor +132  

Aaron Sanchez has had two qulaity starts.  CC coming off an injury.  I see him only going till the 4th inning.  I put the pitching matchup in slight favor of TOR.  I'll take the plus money here with two offenses that have been comparable.

Taking a look at some others