DGlaze91

What do the rest of you guys think?

I look at betting baseball totals as one giant algorithm that requires weighted variables that influence each game's outcome, such as probable pitchers, park factors, matchups, weather, etc.

When a new variable is introduced into the game, such as instant replay, its going to affect the game's outcome one way or the other, even if the difference is miniscule. This means new data must be collected and implemented into the algorithm. Now I'm no science major, but I have a theory that suggests run totals are slightly overvalued because of the unseen consequences of instant replay. Here are two key things to consider:

1) Most of the calls umpires get wrong are the ones that rule a runner safe when he is actually out. The play is so bang/bang that they are prone to erring on the side of the offense. Hence the phrase: "Tie goes to the runner." Now that instant replay has come along, these mistakes will be corrected more often. Sure it can go either way, but most of the overturned decisions we will observe are ones that correctly rule a runner OUT.

2) The implementation of instant replay is going to give managers more freedom to go out and dispute calls, especially from the 7th inning onwards when replay is available but the decision is out of their control. These disruptions in the game normally happen at key junctures when there are runners on base. Stoppages in play will occur MUCH more often in this new environment of instant replay.

The effect? A delay in action in the middle of the inning can do just enough to mess up a batter's rhythm and ultimately zap the momentum out of a rally. Add this to replay ruling more calls OUT than SAFE, the result is fewer opportunities to score, thus fewer runs scored.

YTD: 12-10 ~ -1 unit
Can't hit any big wagers, but the season goes on....

Spurs -13 ~ 8 units
Hawks -4 ~ 5 units
Lakers/Spurs o215 ~ 5 units
Suns/Boston o192 ~ 5 units
Sixers/Raptors u189 ~ 5 units
Hawks/Cavs o193 ~ 5 units

Good luck today fellas

Hawks -103 ~ 10 units: Shocked at this line honestly, considering Minnesota's injury problems and the Hawks superb road record this year

Rockets -8 ~ 10 units: another very safe play in my mind. These two teams are going in the opposite direction.

Heat -3 ~ 7 units
Heat/Pacers u187 ~ 5 units
Heat -½ 1st half ~ 4 units
Rockets -4½ 1st half ~ 4 units

BOL today fellas

RG3 wants to put the whole city of Washington his shoulders. Selfish? Yes, but who wouldn't be, being the face of the franchise? It's no secret he's bothered by Cousins and would obviously rather lead the team himself the promised land, so I can understand why he's bitter..He's only a rookie everybody dont forget that. RG3 just needs a little growing up so that more exposure and experience in the league will make him humble.

How is this possible? Considering everyone and their mother is on Seattle...Surely the Clemons injury doesn't relate, does it?

Hornets/Mavericks Under 192½ ~ 3 units
Dallas Mavericks -6 ~ 7 units
76ers/Spurs Under 198 ~ 5 units
Golden State Warriors +6 ~ 3 units
Rockets/Cavaliers Over 209½ ~ 3 units
Houston Rockets -6 ~ 3 units
Celtics/Hawks Under 188 ~ 4 units
Portland Trailblazers +7 ~ 3 units



Saturday: (5-3) ~ +5 units
YTD: (11-6) ~ +9 units

Can't hit big unit plays, but can't complain about back-to-back winning days

Love all the picks buddy, my card is very similar to yours

My first day was a success!

Saturday: YTD: (6-3) +4 units

Hornets/Mavericks Under 192½ ~ 3 units
Dallas Mavericks -6 ~ 7 units
76ers/Spurs Under 198 ~ 5 units
Golden State Warriors +6 ~ 3 units
Rockets/Cavaliers Over 209½ ~ 3 units
Houston Rockets -6 ~ 3 units
Celtics/Hawks Under 188 ~ 4 units
Portland Trailblazers +7 ~ 3 units

Happy Saturday fellas!

Hawks -1.5 ~ 6 units
Blazers +9 ~ 3 units
Rockets pk ~ 5 units
Lakers/Clippers u207 ~ 6 units
Kings +7 ~ 3 units
Clippers -4.5 ~ 2 units
Cle/Cha o196 ~ 2 units
Mia/Chi u190 ~ 3 units
Indiana pk +125 ~ 2 units

YTD
6-3 ~ +4 units

JMak, Chi 

ADDING

Clippers -4.5 ~ 2 units
Cle/Cha o196 ~ 2 units
Mia/Chi u190 ~ 3 units
Indiana pk +125 ~ 2 units

Been observing NBA action up to this point, & finally have enough research and information to start making plays.

(0-0)

Hawks -1.5 ~ 6 units
Blazers +9 ~ 3 units
Rockets pk ~ 5 units
Lakers/Clippers u207 ~ 6 units
Kings +7 ~ 3 units

Have a safe and enjoyable weekend everybody

After a year-long hiatus im finally back in the game (thank you tax season). I've been itching to get back on handicapping but I need a good site to do it on. I like a good deposit bonuses, lots of prop/live betting and parlay options. Any of y'all got a recommendation? Thanks!

Why VT Boom? Bud's defense has looked shaky all year especially last week vs Miami and they had to claw and grind their way to a win AT HOME. Now they go on the road to an underrated Wake team that is undefeated in the ACC and beat the Noles last week... I like the Deacs to not only cover but win this one.

Good luck though man

added:

 

Baylor/KSU UNDER 65

MICH ST/OH ST OVER 44

MISS ST./UGA OVER 52

GT -10

TEXAS -9.5

UTAH -10

MINN +21

KY/LSU UNDER 46

NEBRASKA +10

UNC -6.5

CLEMSON +7

BAYLOR -3.5

USC -12.5

ARKANSAS +115 (ML)

ALABAMA -4

UCLA/STAN OVER 55

STAN -21

BOISE/NEVADA OVER 60

TEXAS TECH -7

MIAMI (OH) +15

INDIANA +15

 

 Good luck to all this weekend

 

add the 4th one and that looks like a pretty good teaser

Agreed. This is a huge play for me tonight and probably my only one. In the month of December, the average total in games the Raptors have played in is 223 (none have gone under 210). Tonight's total barely cracks 200. I like this one alot.

This is a GREAT play I think SarahJ