dimitripro

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replied to WAS ON RIGHT SIDE, BUT THIS MATCH WAS FIXED in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers: Dmitri knows best...all it takes is one Double fault at the most critical time and boom, the fix goes undetected...btw did you notice all of Ivo's DFa vs DeMinaur...didnt he have sometjing like 13????? Seemed to be part of Karlos tactics to go for the 2nd serve ace which he struggled to nail. Not sure if wind was a factor as i only caught parts of the first set live but his serving looked absolutely terrible although i'm guessing he found his rhythm to win the 2nd/3rd set. View Post \| View Thread	AceDiamonds	10	July 19, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to WAS ON RIGHT SIDE, BUT THIS MATCH WAS FIXED in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by sportswagers: That is fine. These 250 level events are too small to get fixed anyway. Tennis in general is not a big money sport for match fixing. It will be very rare even if it happens like in the cases of Kicker. You're joking right? tennis is by far the most fixed sport and the lower the level the more common it becomes. Packers is right though, no top player would be dumb enough to fix like this, ivo could just tank a point in the tbs instead of a set where he gets broken to 0 twice and breaks back both times. View Post \| View Thread	AceDiamonds	10	July 19, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to HORSE COCK LOCK FOUND in Tennis How is a 36yr old mahut in his last year a lock @ 1.40? I know he loves small grass tournaments but hes half a foot from retirement View Post \| View Thread	accountant4life	6	July 18, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Thoughts on Dulgheru and Buyukakcay in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by Mancity: Can you believe this guy? Lost the third 6:0 !! Both his legs were gone midway through the second set so he could barely move, Ruud just played extremely tentative and tight as soon as he got the lead in the 2nd while J.A could only attack. Hes been carrying small injuries since at least Caltanissetta unfortunately so i'd be weary taking him pre-match in the short term when hes the favorite although due to the swings in his style and his grinding play he is usually great value live if he starts slow. View Post \| View Thread	CodyBanks	23	July 17, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to is it safe to bet on fedarr and williams? in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by TsachiE: i thinking on betting on both of them to win the Wimbledon. that way i got a very little chance to lose my money. cause if at least one of the two will win; i wont earn any money , but wont lose any either. so what are the chances that both of them wont win? that not even one of them well win? If the events were completely independent then we could calculate the implied probability based off bookmaker odds to be around 28.5% chance that neither Serena or Federer win Wimbledon. Because the events aren't 100% independent, we can assume that percentage to maybe be slightly higher (Ie the state of centre court/the weather and other variables that increase chances of upsets would effect them both). Your line of thinking is a very dangerous gambling method. View Post \| View Thread	TsachiE	2	July 09, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Federer Tomorrow in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers: Be careful...these 2 guys are very close friends and Roger rarely beats down a buddy...more likely will play out like a friendly exhibition where the winner is never in doubt however they dont do anything special either...like last year: https://www.flashscore.ca/game/UBdGAJVT/#game-summary Especially when they are playing at home. Rd 1 last year was when this happened as well https://www.flashscore.com/match/2N7SX18c/#match-summary View Post \| View Thread	JN840	5	June 13, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Cilic +4.0 -112 Pinny in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629: Good stuff here. I think it’s safe to say that neither player played a great first set. Delpo 0-6 in break opportunities and the big one when being up 0-30 at 5-5....he couldn’t get it done. As for Cilic, he had 11 aces but Cilic’s second serve was subpar which somewhat evened things out. The difference for me going forward will be the weather. With no rain in the forecast and humidity not as bad, Delpo should have the edge imo. It’s the same in the Nadal match for Nadal. I totally agree with that first point of the tb being ultra important because if Delpo doesn’t win it, there’s a very good chance Cilic prolly takes the first set. We saw after the first rain delay, down 0-30, Cilic fight back to win that game so can Delpo do the same in getting out to a fast start. Nevertheless, whoever wins that first set....it will be very interesting to see how the other responds. I’m a bit surprised that the ML prices are where they are at. Currently Delpo is at -225 or so and Cilic is about +185. This is a bit off from prematch MLs where Delpo was -190 and Cilic was +160. Interesting how tied the MLs changed so much. Yea can't disagree with you. The money line is very fascinating as usually the underdog line shortens the longer they stay level. On top of that Cilic gets an extra days rest after his 5 setter against Fognini which played a part in the initial line. A lot of people must have been getting on Del Po live. View Post \| View Thread	pindex	18	June 06, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Muguruza +175 ALL-IN in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers: I love your confidence, but not the wager...you are short changing yourself here at this price...better to take her ML vs Halep at -110 for 5k, then roll the entire amount on her again ML in the finals (hoping for Sloane to roll Keys in the other semi, that way i truly believe the finals will be again priced -110 each way)...then your 9500 wager on Mugz in the final nets you approx 18k total...here you are only getting 4k less for the exact same wager essentially.... You have more experience than me on how much these match lines move when the public gets on them but the books are setting up for Sloane to be around a 2.75/3.00 dog if she makes the final with a straight forward win no matter who shes up against. This will tighten depending on the scorelines in the semis but it'll take quite a bit of line movement to get her down to evens i reckon as shes 4.50 for the tournament and 1.53 to beat Keys, meaning taking Sloane to win the tournament now is giving you implied odds of 2.93 in the final. He'd be gambling on Sloane to be dominant in the semis if he bets mugu match by match while he loses value if Sloane gets upset or has an average or marathon semi and then risk overthinking things based on how they go in the semi finals. Of course which so much money at stake, all options should be explored and it's interesting predicting how lines will be set. Good luck btw. View Post \| View Thread	SixGod	19	June 06, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Cilic +4.0 -112 Pinny in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629: I hear ya but their head to head record on clay matters. Their performance on clay matters. I understand the present time is most important but psychologically.....you can’t tell me that either one of these guys isn’t aware of the others success/lack there of against one another. As they rest until tomorrow getting that extra time, you can bet that Cilic has extra motivation to get a W from a guy who he has trouble against but you can also bet that delpo is gaining extra confidence knowing he hasn’t played the greatest of first sets and is right there. It’s 100% even right now which makes tomorrow all the more exciting. 0-6 on breaks has to frustrate Delpo but it also has to give him fuel knowing he’s right there. Cilic on the other hand.....hasn’t had near the amount so if his serve continues to be all or nothing, Delpo imo has the advantage. We’ll see..... Just my opinion but their clay h2h is irrelevant because it is outdated and they both know it. Their clay encounters occurred when Cilic wasn't a top 10 player nor a slam contender and Del Potro played a different style, while Cilic has the better recent slam record. I agree about the rest but it will be Cilic who goes away with the feeling that he played an ordinary set and is lucky to be in it as he barely fired a shot off serve (seemingly by design to stay conservative until later in the set/match) A lot will hinge on that first point back in the tb as it's hard to nail your serve straight up however i do think the break might help Del Po forget those missed bp chances. If he had lost the tiebreak last night after dominating the set i could have seen him crumbling if Cilic grabbed an early break in set 2 while now i think he will just mentally restart the match if he loses it and likewise with Cilic. I like Del Po to win but it's an emotional decision over a calculated one given Cilics slam performances. The +4 Cilic looks like great value fading the public sentiment for Del Po as it looks like there's going to be at least a couple of cointoss sets that hinge on a point or two. Good luck. View Post \| View Thread	pindex	18	June 06, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Del potro over cilic in Tennis Everyone seems to be on Del Potro yet the line has barely moved. That makes me nervous. View Post \| View Thread	xibeleli	28	June 06, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to thiem to win outright in Tennis Here's a look at the historical odds as well, with 2009 being the only year in the last 9 where Nadal started as an under evens tournament favorite and didn't win the title. https://prnt.sc/jrcfxi View Post \| View Thread	Dag2lapero	8	June 05, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to thiem to win outright in Tennis Hard to see any value just because it's possible. I can give you a rundown on the numbers based on Nadal. While Thiem has been the 2nd best clay player he would be in his 1st slam final and so if Nadal doesn't make it hes still playing someone like Del Potro who in this scenario just defeated Nadal. Upsets happen all the time but i'd be wanting bigger odds than 5 surely? Nadal in F.O Finals 05 - Def. M. Puerta 6–7(6–8), 6–3, 6–1, 7–5 [4 sets] 06 - Def. Fed: 1–6, 6–1, 6–4, 7–6(7–4) [4 sets] 07 - Def. Fed: 6–3, 4–6, 6–3, 6–4 [4 sets] 08 - Def. Fed: 6–1, 6–3, 6–0 [3 sets] [Won Tournament without losing a set] 10 - Def. Soderling: 6–4, 6–2, 6–4 [3 sets] [Won Tournament without losing a set] 11 - Def. Fed: 7–5, 7–6(7–3), 5–7, 6–1 [4 sets] 12 - Def. Djoko: 6–4, 6–3, 2–6, 7–5 [4 sets] 13 - Def. Ferrer: 6–3, 6–2, 6–3 [3 sets] 14 - Def. Djoko: 3–6, 7–5, 6–2, 6–4 [4 sets] 17 - Def. Stan: 6–2, 6–3, 6–1 [3 sets] [Won Tournament without losing a set] French Open final Stats. Played 10; Won 10; 40% 3-0 60% 3-1 French Open Stats: 83W - 2L: 97.64% Won Thiem 2017 F.O before Nadal Sets Lost - 0 Last Result - d. Djokovic 7-6 6-3 6-0 V Nadal at F.o Lost 3-6 4-6 0-6 Thiem v Nadal H2H Clay 2017 Barca: Nadal 6-4 6-1 Madrid: Nadal 7-6 6-4 Rome: Thiem 6-4 6-3 FO: Nadal 6-3 6-4 6-0 2018 Monaco: Nadal 6-0 6-2 Madrid: Thiem 7-5 6-3 View Post \| View Thread	Dag2lapero	8	June 05, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Kvitova vs Kontaveit in Tennis I like it. On a show court with two of the inform clay players who have gone to a decider in both encounters i'd expect whoever loses the first set to give it everything in the 2nd. View Post \| View Thread	mikla	8	June 01, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Serena -105 :) in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by sandique: Quote Originally Posted by dimitripro: Quote Originally Posted by sandique: Quote Originally Posted by dimitripro: Quote Originally Posted by brianx: Congrats for not fading the Slam champ. She might not win this tournament but still hard to pass her up on those odds. Barty needs to go jump off a bridge. Don't think you can really blame Barty too much, Serena won this as opposed to Barty beating herself. Serenas winners to unforced errors ratio improved as the match went on - set 1: 0.25 set 2: 0.77 set 3: 1.37. She just started slow and then stepped up when required. What your post fails to acknowledge is, as the match went on (& Serena's ratio improved), Barty's effort started to collapse thus the amount of pressure she put on Serena started to ease, making it easier for Serena's w/ue ratio to improve. Barty played a full part in losing, she wasn't simply a spectator to Serena's "greatness". I disagree, Serena was awful in the first set and only started playing in the 2nd. If she starts the match playing like she did in set two then she'd have won 2-0. Compare set 1 and set 3. There was 5 winners between them in set 1, and 25 in set 3. This match is common to many in Serenas career. SET 1: First serve % \| First serve won \| Winners \| unforced errors Serena: S1: 61% S3 75% \| S1: 64% S3: 81% \| S1: 3 S3: 15 \| S1:12 S3: 11 Barty: S1: 54% S3: 60% \| S1: 79% S3: 71% \| S1: 2 S3: 10 \| S1: 4 S3: 13 Your stats do nothing do disavow my contention (Barty gave away almost twice as many free pts/UE in the 3rd as she did in the first 2 sets combined. That's called giving your opponent a mighty helping hand up), but the nature of this debate is that it has no objective outcome so any further energy entered into isn't going to achieve anything. Not exactly, it's all about the winners to unforced errors ratio. 4 Unforced errors in S1 just show how little she had to play, 13 in the third set isn't considered bad in wta, choking might see 25+. Rewatch the match. If you aren't open to re-evaluating your opinion once it's made then sure, we can just agree to disagree and i wish you luck with future bets. However i wonder your thoughts on this, all very similar, looked exactly the same way live as this match. https://gyazo.com/5ff3d1b849502dcf265d503d4bbdd8da Or maybe 4 players just choked in the same week to get Serena her 3rd F.O. View Post \| View Thread	Chrisvec1	13	June 01, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Serena -105 :) in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by Snafu68: I took Serena to win this +1200, when she beats Georges she plays shaky Sharapova next. After that +1200 should give decent change for a hedge depending who Serena plays against. Or more likely Pliskova who is a bad matchup for Serena. View Post \| View Thread	Chrisvec1	13	June 01, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Serena -105 :) in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by sandique: Quote Originally Posted by dimitripro: Quote Originally Posted by brianx: Congrats for not fading the Slam champ. She might not win this tournament but still hard to pass her up on those odds. Barty needs to go jump off a bridge. Don't think you can really blame Barty too much, Serena won this as opposed to Barty beating herself. Serenas winners to unforced errors ratio improved as the match went on - set 1: 0.25 set 2: 0.77 set 3: 1.37. She just started slow and then stepped up when required. What your post fails to acknowledge is, as the match went on (& Serena's ratio improved), Barty's effort started to collapse thus the amount of pressure she put on Serena started to ease, making it easier for Serena's w/ue ratio to improve. Barty played a full part in losing, she wasn't simply a spectator to Serena's "greatness". I disagree, Serena was awful in the first set and only started playing in the 2nd. If she starts the match playing like she did in set two then she'd have won 2-0. Compare set 1 and set 3. There was 5 winners between them in set 1, and 25 in set 3. This match is common to many in Serenas career. SET 1: First serve % \| First serve won \| Winners \| unforced errors Serena: S1: 61% S3 75% \| S1: 64% S3: 81% \| S1: 3 S3: 15 \| S1:12 S3: 11 Barty: S1: 54% S3: 60% \| S1: 79% S3: 71% \| S1: 2 S3: 10 \| S1: 4 S3: 13 View Post \| View Thread	Chrisvec1	13	June 01, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Zverev Anderson in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by GuruTom: So I follow tennis on a week to week basis and love the majors because the public swings the lines to incredible levels but I can not for the life of me figure out why Zverev is +425 tomorrow morn? Anderson isnt even in great form compared to what we've seen from him over the past few years and Zverev is 3-0 against him lifetime. Anyone gonna talk me out of laying 10+ units on Zvev You understand Anderson is playing Mischa Zverev and not Alex Zverev right? View Post \| View Thread	GuruTom	3	May 31, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Serena -105 :) in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by brianx: Congrats for not fading the Slam champ. She might not win this tournament but still hard to pass her up on those odds. Barty needs to go jump off a bridge. Don't think you can really blame Barty too much, Serena won this as opposed to Barty beating herself. Serenas winners to unforced errors ratio improved as the match went on - set 1: 0.25 set 2: 0.77 set 3: 1.37. She just started slow and then stepped up when required. View Post \| View Thread	Chrisvec1	13	May 31, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Barty vs Fatrena in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by dimitripro: People on either side of this bet will think they are genius if they win lol one guy got in there prematurely for Barty, winners often think their bets are logical because they factor in fake assumptions. I missed the first set but i think Serena controlled the whole match by starting slow and shifting gears when required, very similar to how she played in her 2015 title run (a bit like Djoko in slams, only play to the level required). If so then there's likely to be more good spots betting live like there was in that tournament. My gut feeling is that shes probably going to make a decent run without making it look easy but at the right odds i'll fade her for the next few matches with a small bet and back her live if her odds rocket again. Goerges has been really underrated for nearly a year, but the clay factor and her constant injury concerns mean the result will likely hinge on Serenas level of play again and possibly be one sided. After that she plays winner of Pliskobot/Sharapova, I think Pliskova will really trouble her if she starts slow while povas lost to her the last 18 times so a lot of mental baggage there.. View Post \| View Thread	packersbackers	48	May 31, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Barty vs Fatrena in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by sportswagers: Serena upped her level of play now.. if it goes to 3rd set, tough to back Barty. Yea, Barty needs Serena to run out of gas i'd suspect. Historically it doesn't look good https://prnt.sc/jp5rmz View Post \| View Thread	packersbackers	48	May 31, 2018 View Post \| View Thread

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to WAS ON RIGHT SIDE, BUT THIS MATCH WAS FIXED in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers: Dmitri knows best...all it takes is one Double fault at the most critical time and boom, the fix goes undetected...btw did you notice all of Ivo's DFa vs DeMinaur...didnt he have sometjing like 13????? Seemed to be part of Karlos tactics to go for the 2nd serve ace which he struggled to nail. Not sure if wind was a factor as i only caught parts of the first set live but his serving looked absolutely terrible although i'm guessing he found his rhythm to win the 2nd/3rd set. View Post \| View Thread	AceDiamonds	10	July 19, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to WAS ON RIGHT SIDE, BUT THIS MATCH WAS FIXED in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by sportswagers: That is fine. These 250 level events are too small to get fixed anyway. Tennis in general is not a big money sport for match fixing. It will be very rare even if it happens like in the cases of Kicker. You're joking right? tennis is by far the most fixed sport and the lower the level the more common it becomes. Packers is right though, no top player would be dumb enough to fix like this, ivo could just tank a point in the tbs instead of a set where he gets broken to 0 twice and breaks back both times. View Post \| View Thread	AceDiamonds	10	July 19, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to HORSE COCK LOCK FOUND in Tennis How is a 36yr old mahut in his last year a lock @ 1.40? I know he loves small grass tournaments but hes half a foot from retirement View Post \| View Thread	accountant4life	6	July 18, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Thoughts on Dulgheru and Buyukakcay in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by Mancity: Can you believe this guy? Lost the third 6:0 !! Both his legs were gone midway through the second set so he could barely move, Ruud just played extremely tentative and tight as soon as he got the lead in the 2nd while J.A could only attack. Hes been carrying small injuries since at least Caltanissetta unfortunately so i'd be weary taking him pre-match in the short term when hes the favorite although due to the swings in his style and his grinding play he is usually great value live if he starts slow. View Post \| View Thread	CodyBanks	23	July 17, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to is it safe to bet on fedarr and williams? in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by TsachiE: i thinking on betting on both of them to win the Wimbledon. that way i got a very little chance to lose my money. cause if at least one of the two will win; i wont earn any money , but wont lose any either. so what are the chances that both of them wont win? that not even one of them well win? If the events were completely independent then we could calculate the implied probability based off bookmaker odds to be around 28.5% chance that neither Serena or Federer win Wimbledon. Because the events aren't 100% independent, we can assume that percentage to maybe be slightly higher (Ie the state of centre court/the weather and other variables that increase chances of upsets would effect them both). Your line of thinking is a very dangerous gambling method. View Post \| View Thread	TsachiE	2	July 09, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Federer Tomorrow in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers: Be careful...these 2 guys are very close friends and Roger rarely beats down a buddy...more likely will play out like a friendly exhibition where the winner is never in doubt however they dont do anything special either...like last year: https://www.flashscore.ca/game/UBdGAJVT/#game-summary Especially when they are playing at home. Rd 1 last year was when this happened as well https://www.flashscore.com/match/2N7SX18c/#match-summary View Post \| View Thread	JN840	5	June 13, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Cilic +4.0 -112 Pinny in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629: Good stuff here. I think it’s safe to say that neither player played a great first set. Delpo 0-6 in break opportunities and the big one when being up 0-30 at 5-5....he couldn’t get it done. As for Cilic, he had 11 aces but Cilic’s second serve was subpar which somewhat evened things out. The difference for me going forward will be the weather. With no rain in the forecast and humidity not as bad, Delpo should have the edge imo. It’s the same in the Nadal match for Nadal. I totally agree with that first point of the tb being ultra important because if Delpo doesn’t win it, there’s a very good chance Cilic prolly takes the first set. We saw after the first rain delay, down 0-30, Cilic fight back to win that game so can Delpo do the same in getting out to a fast start. Nevertheless, whoever wins that first set....it will be very interesting to see how the other responds. I’m a bit surprised that the ML prices are where they are at. Currently Delpo is at -225 or so and Cilic is about +185. This is a bit off from prematch MLs where Delpo was -190 and Cilic was +160. Interesting how tied the MLs changed so much. Yea can't disagree with you. The money line is very fascinating as usually the underdog line shortens the longer they stay level. On top of that Cilic gets an extra days rest after his 5 setter against Fognini which played a part in the initial line. A lot of people must have been getting on Del Po live. View Post \| View Thread	pindex	18	June 06, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Muguruza +175 ALL-IN in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers: I love your confidence, but not the wager...you are short changing yourself here at this price...better to take her ML vs Halep at -110 for 5k, then roll the entire amount on her again ML in the finals (hoping for Sloane to roll Keys in the other semi, that way i truly believe the finals will be again priced -110 each way)...then your 9500 wager on Mugz in the final nets you approx 18k total...here you are only getting 4k less for the exact same wager essentially.... You have more experience than me on how much these match lines move when the public gets on them but the books are setting up for Sloane to be around a 2.75/3.00 dog if she makes the final with a straight forward win no matter who shes up against. This will tighten depending on the scorelines in the semis but it'll take quite a bit of line movement to get her down to evens i reckon as shes 4.50 for the tournament and 1.53 to beat Keys, meaning taking Sloane to win the tournament now is giving you implied odds of 2.93 in the final. He'd be gambling on Sloane to be dominant in the semis if he bets mugu match by match while he loses value if Sloane gets upset or has an average or marathon semi and then risk overthinking things based on how they go in the semi finals. Of course which so much money at stake, all options should be explored and it's interesting predicting how lines will be set. Good luck btw. View Post \| View Thread	SixGod	19	June 06, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Cilic +4.0 -112 Pinny in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629: I hear ya but their head to head record on clay matters. Their performance on clay matters. I understand the present time is most important but psychologically.....you can’t tell me that either one of these guys isn’t aware of the others success/lack there of against one another. As they rest until tomorrow getting that extra time, you can bet that Cilic has extra motivation to get a W from a guy who he has trouble against but you can also bet that delpo is gaining extra confidence knowing he hasn’t played the greatest of first sets and is right there. It’s 100% even right now which makes tomorrow all the more exciting. 0-6 on breaks has to frustrate Delpo but it also has to give him fuel knowing he’s right there. Cilic on the other hand.....hasn’t had near the amount so if his serve continues to be all or nothing, Delpo imo has the advantage. We’ll see..... Just my opinion but their clay h2h is irrelevant because it is outdated and they both know it. Their clay encounters occurred when Cilic wasn't a top 10 player nor a slam contender and Del Potro played a different style, while Cilic has the better recent slam record. I agree about the rest but it will be Cilic who goes away with the feeling that he played an ordinary set and is lucky to be in it as he barely fired a shot off serve (seemingly by design to stay conservative until later in the set/match) A lot will hinge on that first point back in the tb as it's hard to nail your serve straight up however i do think the break might help Del Po forget those missed bp chances. If he had lost the tiebreak last night after dominating the set i could have seen him crumbling if Cilic grabbed an early break in set 2 while now i think he will just mentally restart the match if he loses it and likewise with Cilic. I like Del Po to win but it's an emotional decision over a calculated one given Cilics slam performances. The +4 Cilic looks like great value fading the public sentiment for Del Po as it looks like there's going to be at least a couple of cointoss sets that hinge on a point or two. Good luck. View Post \| View Thread	pindex	18	June 06, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Del potro over cilic in Tennis Everyone seems to be on Del Potro yet the line has barely moved. That makes me nervous. View Post \| View Thread	xibeleli	28	June 06, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to thiem to win outright in Tennis Here's a look at the historical odds as well, with 2009 being the only year in the last 9 where Nadal started as an under evens tournament favorite and didn't win the title. https://prnt.sc/jrcfxi View Post \| View Thread	Dag2lapero	8	June 05, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to thiem to win outright in Tennis Hard to see any value just because it's possible. I can give you a rundown on the numbers based on Nadal. While Thiem has been the 2nd best clay player he would be in his 1st slam final and so if Nadal doesn't make it hes still playing someone like Del Potro who in this scenario just defeated Nadal. Upsets happen all the time but i'd be wanting bigger odds than 5 surely? Nadal in F.O Finals 05 - Def. M. Puerta 6–7(6–8), 6–3, 6–1, 7–5 [4 sets] 06 - Def. Fed: 1–6, 6–1, 6–4, 7–6(7–4) [4 sets] 07 - Def. Fed: 6–3, 4–6, 6–3, 6–4 [4 sets] 08 - Def. Fed: 6–1, 6–3, 6–0 [3 sets] [Won Tournament without losing a set] 10 - Def. Soderling: 6–4, 6–2, 6–4 [3 sets] [Won Tournament without losing a set] 11 - Def. Fed: 7–5, 7–6(7–3), 5–7, 6–1 [4 sets] 12 - Def. Djoko: 6–4, 6–3, 2–6, 7–5 [4 sets] 13 - Def. Ferrer: 6–3, 6–2, 6–3 [3 sets] 14 - Def. Djoko: 3–6, 7–5, 6–2, 6–4 [4 sets] 17 - Def. Stan: 6–2, 6–3, 6–1 [3 sets] [Won Tournament without losing a set] French Open final Stats. Played 10; Won 10; 40% 3-0 60% 3-1 French Open Stats: 83W - 2L: 97.64% Won Thiem 2017 F.O before Nadal Sets Lost - 0 Last Result - d. Djokovic 7-6 6-3 6-0 V Nadal at F.o Lost 3-6 4-6 0-6 Thiem v Nadal H2H Clay 2017 Barca: Nadal 6-4 6-1 Madrid: Nadal 7-6 6-4 Rome: Thiem 6-4 6-3 FO: Nadal 6-3 6-4 6-0 2018 Monaco: Nadal 6-0 6-2 Madrid: Thiem 7-5 6-3 View Post \| View Thread	Dag2lapero	8	June 05, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Kvitova vs Kontaveit in Tennis I like it. On a show court with two of the inform clay players who have gone to a decider in both encounters i'd expect whoever loses the first set to give it everything in the 2nd. View Post \| View Thread	mikla	8	June 01, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Serena -105 :) in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by sandique: Quote Originally Posted by dimitripro: Quote Originally Posted by sandique: Quote Originally Posted by dimitripro: Quote Originally Posted by brianx: Congrats for not fading the Slam champ. She might not win this tournament but still hard to pass her up on those odds. Barty needs to go jump off a bridge. Don't think you can really blame Barty too much, Serena won this as opposed to Barty beating herself. Serenas winners to unforced errors ratio improved as the match went on - set 1: 0.25 set 2: 0.77 set 3: 1.37. She just started slow and then stepped up when required. What your post fails to acknowledge is, as the match went on (& Serena's ratio improved), Barty's effort started to collapse thus the amount of pressure she put on Serena started to ease, making it easier for Serena's w/ue ratio to improve. Barty played a full part in losing, she wasn't simply a spectator to Serena's "greatness". I disagree, Serena was awful in the first set and only started playing in the 2nd. If she starts the match playing like she did in set two then she'd have won 2-0. Compare set 1 and set 3. There was 5 winners between them in set 1, and 25 in set 3. This match is common to many in Serenas career. SET 1: First serve % \| First serve won \| Winners \| unforced errors Serena: S1: 61% S3 75% \| S1: 64% S3: 81% \| S1: 3 S3: 15 \| S1:12 S3: 11 Barty: S1: 54% S3: 60% \| S1: 79% S3: 71% \| S1: 2 S3: 10 \| S1: 4 S3: 13 Your stats do nothing do disavow my contention (Barty gave away almost twice as many free pts/UE in the 3rd as she did in the first 2 sets combined. That's called giving your opponent a mighty helping hand up), but the nature of this debate is that it has no objective outcome so any further energy entered into isn't going to achieve anything. Not exactly, it's all about the winners to unforced errors ratio. 4 Unforced errors in S1 just show how little she had to play, 13 in the third set isn't considered bad in wta, choking might see 25+. Rewatch the match. If you aren't open to re-evaluating your opinion once it's made then sure, we can just agree to disagree and i wish you luck with future bets. However i wonder your thoughts on this, all very similar, looked exactly the same way live as this match. https://gyazo.com/5ff3d1b849502dcf265d503d4bbdd8da Or maybe 4 players just choked in the same week to get Serena her 3rd F.O. View Post \| View Thread	Chrisvec1	13	June 01, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Serena -105 :) in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by Snafu68: I took Serena to win this +1200, when she beats Georges she plays shaky Sharapova next. After that +1200 should give decent change for a hedge depending who Serena plays against. Or more likely Pliskova who is a bad matchup for Serena. View Post \| View Thread	Chrisvec1	13	June 01, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Serena -105 :) in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by sandique: Quote Originally Posted by dimitripro: Quote Originally Posted by brianx: Congrats for not fading the Slam champ. She might not win this tournament but still hard to pass her up on those odds. Barty needs to go jump off a bridge. Don't think you can really blame Barty too much, Serena won this as opposed to Barty beating herself. Serenas winners to unforced errors ratio improved as the match went on - set 1: 0.25 set 2: 0.77 set 3: 1.37. She just started slow and then stepped up when required. What your post fails to acknowledge is, as the match went on (& Serena's ratio improved), Barty's effort started to collapse thus the amount of pressure she put on Serena started to ease, making it easier for Serena's w/ue ratio to improve. Barty played a full part in losing, she wasn't simply a spectator to Serena's "greatness". I disagree, Serena was awful in the first set and only started playing in the 2nd. If she starts the match playing like she did in set two then she'd have won 2-0. Compare set 1 and set 3. There was 5 winners between them in set 1, and 25 in set 3. This match is common to many in Serenas career. SET 1: First serve % \| First serve won \| Winners \| unforced errors Serena: S1: 61% S3 75% \| S1: 64% S3: 81% \| S1: 3 S3: 15 \| S1:12 S3: 11 Barty: S1: 54% S3: 60% \| S1: 79% S3: 71% \| S1: 2 S3: 10 \| S1: 4 S3: 13 View Post \| View Thread	Chrisvec1	13	June 01, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Zverev Anderson in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by GuruTom: So I follow tennis on a week to week basis and love the majors because the public swings the lines to incredible levels but I can not for the life of me figure out why Zverev is +425 tomorrow morn? Anderson isnt even in great form compared to what we've seen from him over the past few years and Zverev is 3-0 against him lifetime. Anyone gonna talk me out of laying 10+ units on Zvev You understand Anderson is playing Mischa Zverev and not Alex Zverev right? View Post \| View Thread	GuruTom	3	May 31, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Serena -105 :) in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by brianx: Congrats for not fading the Slam champ. She might not win this tournament but still hard to pass her up on those odds. Barty needs to go jump off a bridge. Don't think you can really blame Barty too much, Serena won this as opposed to Barty beating herself. Serenas winners to unforced errors ratio improved as the match went on - set 1: 0.25 set 2: 0.77 set 3: 1.37. She just started slow and then stepped up when required. View Post \| View Thread	Chrisvec1	13	May 31, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Barty vs Fatrena in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by dimitripro: People on either side of this bet will think they are genius if they win lol one guy got in there prematurely for Barty, winners often think their bets are logical because they factor in fake assumptions. I missed the first set but i think Serena controlled the whole match by starting slow and shifting gears when required, very similar to how she played in her 2015 title run (a bit like Djoko in slams, only play to the level required). If so then there's likely to be more good spots betting live like there was in that tournament. My gut feeling is that shes probably going to make a decent run without making it look easy but at the right odds i'll fade her for the next few matches with a small bet and back her live if her odds rocket again. Goerges has been really underrated for nearly a year, but the clay factor and her constant injury concerns mean the result will likely hinge on Serenas level of play again and possibly be one sided. After that she plays winner of Pliskobot/Sharapova, I think Pliskova will really trouble her if she starts slow while povas lost to her the last 18 times so a lot of mental baggage there.. View Post \| View Thread	packersbackers	48	May 31, 2018 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Barty vs Fatrena in Tennis Quote Originally Posted by sportswagers: Serena upped her level of play now.. if it goes to 3rd set, tough to back Barty. Yea, Barty needs Serena to run out of gas i'd suspect. Historically it doesn't look good https://prnt.sc/jp5rmz View Post \| View Thread	packersbackers	48	May 31, 2018 View Post \| View Thread

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