Dmon826

Good luck today, my man.

It actually appears that the line's now Drexel +5 almost all over, for whatever that's worth.

...CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS POST

So as I mentioned above, I have one play today:  BELMONT +4.  Here's why I like it.

We should all know by now all about both these teams, and so I'm gonna skip some of the usual team overview type stuff  and player-by-player analysis type stuff for time purposes and dig right into the matchup.

Actually, before I do that, let me say this:  Memphis is not a top-10 team (they shouldn't be, anyway).  They will be very good this year and should get better as the year gets on, but on opening day, it takes a giant leap of faith to think they're as good as their top-10 ranking would have you believe.  John Gasaway had a fantastic piece on ESPN last week that examined this idea-- it's a must read as far as I'm concerned.  In there he explores the idea of how good Memphis could be this year and admits they have tremendous potential.  Still, he points out that they had the WORST (dead last!) offense in C-USA last year, something I didn't realize.  I mean, not just average, dead last.  Will they be better this year?  Almost certainly.  But how anybody can be so confident that they're gonna improve SO MUCH (with much of the same personnel) on offense that they can be good enough to be a top-10 team from the opening tip of the season is beyond me.

I also love that Belmont already has a game under their belt (at Duke, no less), while Memphis has yet to shake off their opening-night jitters.

Now, Memphis relies on its tremendous athleticism to overwhelm teams.  They couldn't shoot worth a damn last year, but they're super-athletic and can drive and slash with the best of 'em.  And their length and size and speed can wreak havoc on the defensive end.  Still, does anybody think this Belmont team is one to get overwhelmed by tremendous athleticism?  They're about as prepared and discplined as any team in the country.  They just went into Duke and didn't look the least bit rattled by superior athleticism, as they continued to play their game.  And Duke's on-ball pressure (in Cameron, especially), is at least as intimidating as anything Belmont's likely to see in Memphis, as is the level of athleticism.

Now let's dig into this matchup a bit further, starting with when Belmont's on offense.  They're obviousy a phenomenal shooting team, from 2, from 3, from the line, from anywhere.  They can and do make from an extremely high percentage from all ranges, although they take a ton of threes and that constitutes a huge chunk of their offense.  Their other huge strength is offensive rebounding.  They were average at taking care of the ball, though, and average at getting to the line.  Memphis, defensively, was a good but not great team.  They did a good job with field goal defense (but not as good as you'd think given how athletic they are) and getting steals/blocks, but were surprisingly bad on the defensive boards.  So what's all this mean?  Well, I don't think Memphis will be able to get Belmont too much out of what it wants to do on offense.  Belmont will still get good looks, especially from 3 (where Memphis's shot-blocking ability won't bug them).  Belmont will get way more offensive boards than they should given the athletic differences.  And Belmont should be able to be plenty efficient on offense.

Now let's head over to the other end of the floor.  Memphis, as I mentioned earlier, really struggled in C-USA play last year on offense.  But why?  Well, despite their high 2-point field goal percentage (not surprising given how many dunks/layups/close-range shots they get off of drives), they are a really bad outside shooting team and don't shoot well from the line.  They also turn the ball over A TON.  They do just a decent job on the O-boards.  Belmont was a very, very good defensive team last year.  With their deep rotation and constant pressure, they were second in the country in forcing turnovers.  In the half-court, they were much better at defending the interior (where they excelled in their 2-point field goal defense) than defending the three, where they were just average.  Their one gigantic weakness was in letting teams get to the line a ton.  Most of this seems to really favorite Belmont, matchup-wise.  The numbers suggest that turnovers will be a huuuuge problem for Memphis against this defense.  Also, the way to beat Belmont is over the top, not inside, but Memphis's offense is designed to beat teams by driving and slashing, not exactly an optimal way to beat this Belmont D.  The one big thing in Memphis's favor is that all that slashing could cause problems for Belmont's hacktastic tendencies and could send Memphis to the line a ton (where, sure, they struggle, but if they hit at a high percentage that could be the difference in the game for them).

Putting all this together, I think Belmont matches up extremely well with Memphis.  Belmont's offensive strengths are in no way negated by Memphis's defensive strengths, and if anything are helped by the fact that Memphis doesn't rebound well on that end.  And on the other end, Belmont's defensive strengths could really expose Memphis's offensive weaknesses, turnovers and outside shooting.

There's just too much to like in this matchup.  The line's about right (Belmont, despite being ranked lower than Memphis, is probably about equal or slightly better objectively), but it's all these matchup factors that tip the scales in their favor in my opinion despite the line, on the surface, being about where it should.  Belmont has a good chance to steal this one outright and prove it's the best team in Tennessee.  Or at the very least, this one should come down to the wire.

For all these reasons, I'm taking

BELMONT +4

Good luck to everybody today, whatever you're on.

Starting the day off with:
BELMONT +4

I'll have a writeup up in a little bit, but wanted to get the pick posted first since we're close to gametime.

Be back soon with the reasoning.

Ugh.  Can't believe we didn't pull that out (Penn, not the Temple bet).  Penn played their g*ddamn asses off and had every chance to win that game.  So frustrating.

Dan-

If anything, I'd lean under on the total. Both teams want to play a half court game, but that's already factored into the total. But Temple will want to play extra-slow since they're missing two of the eight guys that were supposed to be a part of their rotation. Also, Penn's defensive rebounding problems has the effect of extending possessions, further slowing the pace of the game. Still, it's a total no-play for me. That's just my lean.

No, seriously, with Randall and Wyatt out, who starts at the 3? I'm not disagreeing with you. I just legitimately don't know who gets those minutes- which little-known upperclassman or frosh is gonna play (I just don't know the Temple roster beyond the top 8 guys).

Also, on an inrelated note, I love Juan and all (really, I do love his game), but hes not the best PG on the floor tonight.

Question for ya- how do you think the loss of Wyatt will affect your boys tonight? Who's next in line to get those minutes? Thanks in advance.

2 quick updates:

1). As expected, the Columbia line has indeed gone up and so I'm buying back on Furman. Looks like I'll have a nice little two-point middle right in the sweet spot, so I'll take that.

2). On the Penn game, it looks like Wyatt is OUT for Temple on a one-gam suspension for an internal matter. Obviously that's a frustrating loss if you're on Temple, as he's their best outside shooter and absolutely destroyed Penn in their game last year. I still like Temple to cover, but obviously this loss eats away at a little bit of the value. Still sticking with it, though.

Also, on an unrelated note, I'm buying a little Columbia -4.5.  I don't have any strong feelings on this game, but I feel like this line will rise a bit as we get into the afternoon tomorrow.  And at that time, if I have Columbia -4.5 in my pocket, I can buy back some and go for the middle.

Well, that's how we start the season.  Looking forward to a great ride.  Take cARE, fellas, and have a great night.

Always nice to see you and cgonzo on the same page.

Hey buddy!

Oh, Harvard is DEFINITELY the team to beat and ought to run away with the conference.  They should be a top-50 team nationally (or thereabouts).  However, I have to imagine that they're gonna be valued correctly by the linesmakers, and therefore that they won't automatically be a great team to bet on.

Hope everybody has a fantastic and profitable upcoming season. Good luck to all, and I can't wait to get it started.