dmoore916

I agree with you on CAL ML but would not take the points. Cal has a new HC that you can still some of their personnel are still trying to figure out the system and work some of the kinks out. They lost to Cal St Bakersfield, Wazzu, and USC. But they beat Cuse and Washington (overrated though). This team is just so hot and cold. If they come to play tonight I think they win SU but if they come out slow like they have past few games they lose by DD imo

Watch out for NW. Venric Mark, starting RB, transferred. This probably isn't their biggest lose as Treyvon Green should be able to come fairly close to filling his shoes in this offense. The big lose I believe comes to Christian Jones who is lost for the year. With Siemian getting the call to be the full time starter I think the WR lose is big. I know Siemian has started in the past and saw the field but losing a wide out like that hurts.

With all that said Cal is going to be horrible. Cal's offense will be decent and be able to score but that defense is terrible. I am not sure if its a good thing Cal has returning starters on defense. I couldn't play this first game with the injuries and NW having to travel 4:30 hours out west.  

This team has been in an offensive slump which raises cause for concern. Yes they only have one lose on their record but the biggest lose that is not shown on the record is Brandon Ashley. Yes people know this is a big lose but I still feel it is being under played.

With Ashley in the lineup Arizona was deadly because of every aspect to his game. 3 was Gordon. 4 was Ashley. 5 was Tarc. Why is this a big thing. Well Arizona had arguably one of the best 3-4-5 in the nation due to their size and ability these 3 bring to the court. Ashley was a 4 who extended defenses because they have to respect his outside shot. By him being in the lineup it made the guards job easier. Guards were able to drive and usually only have to worry about one defender in the paint and that is Tarc defender. This made life a lot easier for the guards. In addition, with Ashley extending the defense it opens up driving lanes for everyone. Now with him out what happens. Gordon moves to the 4 guard. May not seem like a big deal but this changes the Arizona offense completely. If you have followed this team you have begun to realize that everyone is realizing Gordon has no jump shot and has no confidence in himself to make it. Playing Cal Gordons defender sat back in the paint daring him to take a jump shot. He took one 3 and missed and after that didn't even think about pulling a jump shot for the rest of the game. This is a major issue. Gordon at the 4 allows teams to now sag back into the paint and make Arizona hit jump shots which they have not been particularly lethal with. Now you say well the guards have been doing work penetrating the lane. Agreed but now they have to deal with another defender in the paint because Gordon is not respected as a shooter. This means Arizona guard play and particularly Johnson and York are going to have to start banging down 3's to pull the defense out again and open up the paint.

Another issue with Ashley being out is foul trouble. Arizona does not have the depth to afford any big now to get into foul trouble. Regardless Arizona will have to play Korcheck, who really has only played junk minutes this year.

I am not sitting here saying Arizona has now become a bad team but as an alum of the school I am very worried come tournament time. This is why I think the Ashley injury is a major major lose and I don't see why teams don't pack the paint and force Arizona to shoot jump shots especially Gordon.

Locked in Cal -1

Still looking at La Tech

JFen- Looking on your thoughts on Cal Dayton. It seems to me Cal at PK should be the play. Dayton after last night must be let down. Led all game but about 2 minutes. Cal has played pretty good defense from what I have seen.

Thanks

I did a write up on this game. I am an alum from AZ but try to stay very unbias. Love this match up for AZ. AZ should dominate the glass and they shot lights out. Plus Fouch will be defender by McConnell one of the best defenders in the nation imo

GL

Let me start by saying this. I love this Drexel team. They are pretty long and have a lot to prove. Last year I think they were the biggest let down in college basketball.

With that said, I don't like this match up for Drexel. Arizona is going to be a lot bigger in the paint and I think that is going to be a key to the game, but not the only one. Drexel top scorer Fouch is going to have a tough time tonight. He will be defended by one of the best defenders in college basketball in my opinion in McConnell. McConnell didn't play last year because of transfer rules, but when he played at Duquesne he was third in the nation in steals per game (2.8). This will be the best defender Fouch has faced this year. Yes he is experienced but McConnell is that good of a defender.

As stated above with the size difference in the paint Drexel is going to have to crash and really focus. This will limit their fast break opportunities. Arizona should win the boards by a pretty decent amount, leading to extra opportunities which is something you do not want to give this Arizona team. They are shooting 54% from the field and 42% from the perimeter. The worry on the offensive side of the ball for Arizona is their FT%. They are only shooting 64% but the good news is the big man in the middle Tarczewski is shooting 82%. Drexel cant try to bail themselves out by fouling down low.

Given those statistics and the height disadvantage Drexel is going to struggle on defense. Do they run a zone and allow Arizona to shoot all over them or do they run a man to man and have size mismatches down low.

I didn't even get into a lot about Arizona on the offensive side of the ball. Nick Johnson is explosive as any guard in the country and paired with McConnell this is a dangerous backcourt. Then to come in for them you have York who is lights our from the perimeter and Mayes can play SG who is very experienced. You have Gordon on of the top freshman in the country, enough said. Then we will start Ashley or Hollis-Jefferson (McDonalds All American). Either or is fine. Ashley helps extend the defense because he is a threat from deep, and I prefer he starts. If he starts Arizona has a McD All American off the bench. Then you get down low to the 7 footer Tarczewski. He has gotten a lot better from last year and was discussed above.

I have the cats at -10 and -11

Also like:

Cal PK

LA Tech -6.5

Why LSU?

I was leaning Umass. Early game at Umass and that frantic pace they play I feel will give LSU fits. I don't like anyones first game of the season against Umass.

Let me know your thoughts