garbagetime

Yeah I know, but it seemed like maybe an adjustment could be made.

What I wanted to know was why they hadn't tried to get Henry some runs to the outside. It seemed like they kept trying to run it up the gut and then stopped running when it didn't work. It's a wide field

1-0-1 this week

The luckiest cover ever for the win, and an extremely unlucky push.

That said, and this is a point that gets driven home every year in the playoffs, the stupidity on display by so many coaches is just unreal.

Eagles are gaining 9 yards a carry, looking to get a first down to end the game, so they decide on a Hurts dropback during which he takes his seventh sack. Before that, the idiotic play calling that costs the Eagles a safety. There was more. There is always more. Sirianni is an idiot.

Ravens go for a 2-point conversion in the 3rd quarter, which they miss, which necessitates going for it at game's end, and they miss again. Yeah, Lamar made mistakes, the team made too many mistakes, but that's a mistake a coaching staff should never make.

Last night, the Lions are ahead and looking to score a second TD, they're gaining 12 yards a carry, so they let human statue Goff hold the ball in the pocket on 3rd and 1 until he fumbles. Campbell for the L.

@Boisestateand8

 That and the safety, terrible play calling by the Eagles at and key moments 

That's the luckiest cover I've ever gotten, nothing even close.

Would somebody please explain why KC ran another play, and especially that one? 

I have Houston +9.5

Refs have their thumb on the scale

Both can be true

You may not have heard that there's this thing called the point spread.

Eagles put up 300 yards with their B team in that last game. :)

1-1 last week

This week:

Eagles -6. Taking this on the theory that the snowy, cold forecast favors the team with the massive run game.

Texans +9.5. I just don't think a team that ekes out narrow wins all season is going to suddenly turn it on...again.

This season KC won four games by double digits: NO, Cle, SF, Pitt. Against playoff teams: Pitt won by 19, Houston won by 8, LAC won by 2 and 7, Buff lost by 9, Den won by 2, TB won by 6 in OT, Bal won by 7. Houston lost big twice this season, both against playoff teams (Bal, Minn).

Lol, now it did

Eagles 4th. Last 3 is pretty good.

It's refusing to show the table I added from here (remove spaces) teamrankings.com /nfl /stat /points-per-play-margin

Very missed call

I thought it was DPI, but it was a situation where the game was over.

I'd just like to say that after seeing Philly injure two starters by targeting them with the crown of their helmets, I hope one or more of those mofos break their necks doing that stuff.

I'd really like to see the league make it a point of emphasis next year. Not that they should need to. The first thing you're told in pewee football is that you should be able to see what you hit.

Go Lions, go Vikings, go Tampa

Just can't pull the trigger on GB +5.5. They're my team, but who are the quarterbacks today? I'll enjoy watching it more without money on it, anyway.

I have taken TB -3.

CJ is my new visual

Your worry with props is that the books find the mean of all game performances, and then skew their line liberally to match the market's preference for overs. Particularly if you favor overs, you're not going to win over time.

LOL. There's attitude, and then there's maths.

A publisher is considering a book manuscript of mine, here's a relevant sample:

The only theoretical way to win is to do a serious amount of number crunching, find something that looks like an edge, blind spots that appear to offer value, and bet them when these situations present themselves.

Betting because you want to win money is a serious grind. If you can find a situation that favors you — meaning you’ve spotted something that happens a third of the time but you can get implied odds of 40 percent — you make that bet hundreds or even thousands of times, gradually building your bankroll.

Last year, in an 18-week NFL season, I made 32 bets and won 19 — 59 percent, a big win. The previous year, 54% — a little better than break even. The year before that, 50%, a loss. If you are attempting to put yourself through school, feed your kids or pay down your mortgage, this isn't going to do anything for you. It’s a long, long road, a place where you can double your bankroll in a month guessing well in soccer, and then lose half of those winnings on a big slate of Saturday games where you guess them all wrong.

It takes tremendous discipline to stick to the games you’ve identified as your best bets, and not waver from your commitment to playing only those games. It takes discipline to refuse to chase losses, and to refuse to take the bets you’re not 100 percent sure of after you’ve won a decent amount of money. It takes discipline to not raise the amount of your bet when things are going badly, and to not raise the amount of your bet when things are going well.

When people warn you about the importance of money management to being a successful bettor, they’re talking about the grind. The grind isn’t flashy. Big wins happen only occasionally. It’s more like a hundred small wins, all for exactly the same small amount, whether you felt going into the game that it was a sure thing or whether you felt it could go either way.

And if you win a hundred bets like that, it means you’ve also lost 85 bets, all for exactly the same small amount. Your edge is small, so your units must also be small. The common advice of having each bet be 1% to 2% of your bankroll is, if anything, aggressive. At some point, you’ll lose 15 or 20 bets in a row. Do you have enough to cover it? You have to have enough in your account to weather storms that you know are coming.

I'm plus-2 units in the NFL this season, break-even in my usual strategy (7-6) and plus-4.5 in twin peaks situations. I'm on Houston +3 today, which I explained in another thread, but my general strategy is to go against the consensus.