GoCapYourself

First time posting in a few years so hopefully can start where I left off...in the winning column.  

A couple of picks I wanted some input on that I am making:

UNC -6.5 1h

I'm on a strong lean with this pick as I believe UNC will stay disciplined with their elite ball handling and boards even against a tough defense.  I know UNC got off to a slow start last game, but I think we see them overwhelm this Washington team from the get go.  Your thoughts?

Duke/UCF 1h Under 67

This is where I typically do not make a play.  Can't say I love playing O/U in basketball.  However, UCF plays in a manner of constant pressure while forcing you to make a tough play/shot. To me this feels like a slow 1h with Duke playing disciplined/safe in order to wear UCF down.  Over the course of the game I think you see Duke run away with this, however I can't help but think we see a somewhat boring 1h.  This is a tough one for me.  Thoughts on this?

You could be right, but was Just a discussion on a podcast that made sense to me.  Stafford practiced in full all week so eventhough he isnt 100% i dont think there was ever worry he wasnt playing. With or without the Stafford talk, Its still a play for me. GL this week

In my opinion you are seeing a battle of sharps on both sides with the public pushing the GB line up.  Typically you see the sharps battle very close to game time (if they are even battling), but like you said, I would not have been surprised to see a line of GB -6.5.

A couple things on this game for me; I think Minnesota's defense at home is legit and Rodgers won't have a cake walk.  Minnesota's offense has been fairly better than I believe most people would think with Keenum, but there game plans have worked well.

Both of these teams know each other extremely well and while I do think that Diggs being out is a big deal, I believe home field advantage coupled with the Vikes playing for top spot in their division is why you are seeing the close line in the books.  I'm staying away from it all together.

Last cover: Denver -12

I hate double digit spreads in the NFL.  It seems to go against me when I pull the trigger, but this game is as if the Deer is putting the rifle in my hand for me.  

I think we are all on the same page here as the Giants are in a very dark, deep, and ugly hole.  They've lost all of their weapons and have little ground game at all.  Their defense has been a bright spot of sorts but was just ran all over.  

There's not much to say here.  Denver is coming off a bye with the best defense in the NFL and holding opponents to 18 points per game.  I don't even have one clue on how Eli will score against this defense at home with virtually no weapons or way to move the ball.  I'm forced to play Denver here and also the unders.  There is nothing to keep me away or to play the Giants, so coming from a Chiefs fan, I'll say let's go Broncos!

Chargers ML or points-

Yes Rivers gives everyone headaches and so do the Chargers with their horrible record.  But Oakland has not impressed me in any shape or form.  Carr or not, Oakland's defense is always suspect to get shredded and a QB that has thrown for multiple TDs in 10 of his last 12 games won't help that either.

Now I'm not saying I'm loading up on the Chargers but they are in play for me.  In Oakland the Chargers are 10-4 ATS and while I know the Raiders are playing for their season, I don't think the Chargers are giving up just yet.  Just a small play for me, but one of the better games with a chance at a cover or SU win this week.

Rams ML or points-

Consistency.  That's really what we look for in blah games.  I will be one of the first to stand firm on the fact that I believe the Jags defense is for real.  They have been a powerhouse but this is the perfect spot for a let down.  They will still play well, but consistency will win this game.  Goff has surprised the world this year with his complete 180 from last season.  But overall you could not ask for a more consistent QB.  His passes are sharp and on point,  He is playing smart and making wise decisions, and he's got the advantage of a struggling QB on the other side of the field.

Blake Bottles is proving his case to me about being more and more like Bad Andy Dalton.  Some days are great and the others are horrid.  So what does Jacksonville have him do?  Throw the ball a whopping 14 times.  I think we see some of the same here and I believe the Rams can hold off this offense while Goff does just enough to win.

Think twice before you bet those Pats:

Here's all I have been hearing from write ups to large betting friends: "If you give Belichek 10 days to prepare say good night NYJ" or "The Jets aren't as good as their record and it will be proven here

I get it.  I want to load up on the Patriots here also because a mere 9 points should be a cake walk for the GOAT right?  

I remember only a few large bets that have completely went sour on me and ruined my weekend.  A few of those are going large on the Pats vs the Jets.  Maybe that has something to do with the fact that the Pats are 0-4 ATS in New York. I'm staying away from this one as yes I think the Pats should try and make a statement here, but I legitimately believe that there is something seriously wrong with their defense.  If anything, I think the over is the play as it at least carries an attractive 11-4 record.

It's been a few years since I've posted but after reading these last few weeks, I thought I would throw out my thoughts for this week.  Feel free to comment or let me know your locks for the week. GL all...lets make some bank.

Covers-

Saints -4

 I'm a believe of stats and also a believer of bye weeks.  I have seen quite a few write ups that back the Lions here as even I am impressed with their play so far.  However, I firmly believe that they have too much going against them here.  Stafford isn't going to be 100% and the Saints have had a surprisingly stingy defense lately.  

Most importantly, the Saints are coning off a bye week and playing at home.  A 21-5 ATS stat coming off a bye is no joke as the Saints always play up to expectations in the dome.  In taking Saints -4 as I believe we seen the sharps already pound the line to push it all the way to -5.5 at some books.  Now that the public has brought it back to -4, I see incredible value in following the big money.

Ravens -6.5

Here's my side of this game as I see quite a few people that want in on the Bears here.  I know the Bears' defense has stepped up more than we expected and yes Tribusky did have a few bright spots in his game.  But, I am going to be playing the Ravens for a few reasons here.  The Ravens defense, although not exciting, are very steady and have a few ball hawkers with a decent pass rush that can force Tribusky into a few key mistakes.  On the other side of the ball, The Ravens do not have a sexy offense, but a steady one.  I see this being a lackluster type of game that Baltimore grinds down the Bears and covers the spread.  Slow and steady wins the race.  Harbaugh is not 9-0 against rookie QBs for nothing.