hehateme_OLD_15815

The ratings for BOSTON vs LA finals would be through the roof!!  Boston is a huge sports market city and LA is about as big as it gets.  Fans span from both coasts of the country.  The narrative for Lebron going for his 5th championship to tie Kobe Bryant would be there.  Both franchises are tied for 17 championships and the series would present the opportunity for one of them to become the NBA's winningest franchise while directly going head-to-head with the other!  This is a wet dream scenario for the NBA.  If Adam Silver and the refs have any influence on making this happen, they will.  LA has been one of the best teams since the all-star break and is the best 4th quarter team in the NBA.  LA has the chops to beat Denver and only a slight series dog.  Boston is a massive series favorite versus Miami.  It is entirely possible we are looking at a Lakers/Celtics finals.

@Macwestie1 it's a pleasure hearing from you brother, I hope you are well!    I was hoping to go 4-0 but happy to end NCAAB on a 3-1.  I look forward to the insight of the cappers on here for MLB season, as I'm a mediocre capper when it comes to MLB.  Feels like an eternity between now and football season!!

Greetings fellow bettors!! I finally recovered my Covers info to post on here.  Been a longtime member.  I find this forum to be very helpful over the years and hold in high regard many posters - Badlands, Macwestie, DonJuan to name a few.  

Here are my picks:

1.  UCONN -7 - On Kenpom, UCONN has ascended to the top position, clear testament to their elite status.  UCONN has dominated this tournament.  UCONN meets every eye test - talent, being in a power-6 conference, no major injuries, offense, defense, etc.  No mid-major has won a national title in 22+ years of Kenpom.  2014 UCONN "maybe" the only exception (American conference in 2014), but for all intensive purposes, UCONN is synonymous with BIG EAST.  2010 Butler and 2022 UNC are the only school that covered ATS while losing SU.  Title winning teams are a combined 20-2 ATS since 2000.  SDST has also teetered on edge of losing in this tournament.  Easy games vs inferior opponents Charleston and Furman, quality win vs Alabama, and a pair of 1 point wins vs Creighton and FAU.  SDST had many extra possessions in those games, which will be hard to come by against long, athletic, physically imposing UCONN bigs.  For me, it comes down to trust, and I trust UCONN far more than SDST.  Media will write whatever they want to create intrigue, storylines, team of destiny, etc.  If UCONN plays the way they have all tournament, they will cover.  UCONN has beaten every non Big East team by 10+ points this entire season.

2.  TOTAL UNDER 133 (I got this earlier today, most books are now at 131-132) - both teams boast defenses inside top 10 in the country.  Nerves could be a huge factor.  A few bricks and some lockdown defense on both ends could favor the under.  I'm willing to bet neither team shoots lights out.  Overs are a square play in most title games and this game is no exception.  Both teams are elite defensively and total in 130s tell me the only logical wager is UNDER.    

3.  SD ST TT UNDER 62.5 - my gut tells me UCONN will smother SDST defensively.  SDST as a program has never made it this far and the lights may be too bright.  UCONN's length, their bigs' ability to control the paint, prevent second chance scoring will also be major factors.  SDST will have to shoot well along with UCONN having defensive lapses to jeopardize the under.  I'm willing to bet both will not happen.

4.  SD ST 1H TT UNDER 28.5 - my basis for taking this is SDST coming out with a lot of nerves early.  I can see UCONN also coming out with nerves.  SDST has to play at a high level on defense to stay in this game, and I see them doing so early.  UCONN is physically imposing and could lock down SDST.  I could see an ugly game early (think UCONN/BUTLER 2011).  If that occurs (I sure hope so), a dog team total under makes for a beautiful play.

BOL!!   

Hi All, I'm targeting a sizable wager for me on this game but thrown off by the line movement.  Clippers opened as -13.5 and now -11.5.  The money-line on Clippers has also dropped.  Rockets are missing several key players including John Wall who is slated to sit out tonight's game (rest).  Anyone have insight on why there is reverse line movement on the team missing key players?  Perhaps sharps hitting this game hard?  Last game of the night.  Will this be a game where the team no one expects to lose comes out flat and fails to cover, with possibly a chance of a colossal upset??     

It sucks these types of stories are not brought to the forefront of news "prior" to the game.  What a story.  This kid went from taking a photo as a fan to later becoming the M.O.P for this program.  

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/court-report-a-photo-foretold-the-future-as-scott-drew-and-jared-butler-met-long-before-reuniting-at-baylor/

Like them both my friend and BOL.    It wouldn't surprise me to see Houston win and UCLA get a backdoor cover....but I can't touch UCLA given the way Gonzaga has played.  IMO, the best college basketball team I've seen in the last 2 decades.

I can see a beatdown of epic proportions here.  This Zags team is all-time great team.  The Bruins program also dealt Gonzaga one of its' most memorable and heartbreaking losses in 2006.  Not to say 2006 has any bearing on this game, but that 2006 Zags team was also led by Mark Few.  I would not put it past Mark Few to show his players clips of that game and the heartbroken reaction of his players as an added motivation to the current players to absolutely mop the floor with this UCLA team.  The Zags came close and fell just short against UNC a few years ago.  If they don't win with a team as awesome as this, they may never win a NCAAB title.    

As for #11 seed UCLA, all other 11 seeds that made the final four, lost in the final four, and failed to cover.  BOL if you are backing a Cinderella team against an all-time great team firing on all cylinders. 

Hi All, in a much earlier post, I had anticipated the Final 4 and National Champ coming down to 4 teams....two of those teams are still playing.  Houston and Gonzaga.

Gonzaga/UCLA - IMO, Gonzaga is the greatest college basketball team I've ever seen from a team chemistry and offensive efficiency perspective.  They look like a well oiled machine and are the "Golden State Warriors of college basketball".  UCLA is a feel good story to go from first 4 to final four, but the ride ends here.  I've seen many great teams come up short in years of watching college basketball (ex- 1991 UNLV, 2001 Duke, 2008 UNC, 2015 KENTUCKY to name a few) but this is as big a mismatch I can recall in a long time.  The Zags are superior in all aspects of the game and in addition to the lethal offense, possess the 5th best efficient defense.  I believe this game will get UGLY.  If the Bruins pull the upset, I would consider it the greatest upset I've ever seen at this stage of the NCAA tournament.  Play Gonzaga -13.5

Baylor/Houston - As I stated in an earlier thread, Houston to me is the likeliest candidate to emerge from opposite the Gonzaga bracket.  Houston has the 8th most efficient defense compared to Baylor's 28th ranked defense, whereas offensive efficiency perspective, these two teams are only separated by 4 positions.  I've seen a ton of basketball matchups over the years where two solid teams face off, and more often than not, when such a matchup occurs, the team with the superior defense prevails.  If this game is tight in the closing minutes, I see a lot of value in Houston covering the number and possibly securing the outright win.  Teams outside top 20 defensive efficiency have not won a national championship since the Kenpom.com site began accumulating data, and Baylor and UCLA are both in this category.  Kelvin Sampson is a longtime coach of the game, arrived at this stage in 2002 but denied a title game shot in an upset loss to Indiana.  I believe he gets the title game shot that eluded him 19 years ago.  Play Houston +5, smaller play on Houston ML

BOL  

Oregon State 1H   Me saying to myself in Joe Pesci Casino voice:  "You bet on Oregon State 1h.  You sh*t kicking, stinky, horse manure smelling mf*r you".  

On to the next one.  Just one game.

Fun Fact:  Additional 11 seeds that made it to the elite 8 (LSU in 1986, and George Mason in 2006), also made the Final Four.

Oregon St/Houston - Oregon St, in it's 3 games, has been a freight train in covering the 1h (have done so with ease).  Houston - against 15 seed Cleveland State, though covered, were only up 3 at the 3 minute mark.  Houston - against mediocre Rutgers, lost the 1h outright.  Facing Syracuse, Houston gave up a 12 point 1h lead and saw itself tied 20-20 at the 3 minute mark before pulling away for the 1h cover.  If the 1h is tight in the final 3 minutes, I see Oregon St offering supreme value given what's transpired in the tournament involving these teams.  Play Oregon St +4.5 1h.

Arkansas/Baylor - Arkansas had a meager 3 point lead at half vs. a bad Colgate team.  Arkansas survived missed layups vs. Texas Tech.  Arkansas almost lost SU as a 11 point chalk to an overachieving Oral Roberts squad on a 3 pointer that hit the front iron.  Baylor has won all 3 tournament games by DD including the Villanova game when they were down 7 at the half.  Baylor has the offensive power to come back from a deficit, pull away late, or blow this game wide open from the get-go.  My money is on Baylor to win by DD again.  Play Baylor -7.5

USC/Gonzaga - USC has put up 72, 85, and 82 points respectively in it's 3 games.  Gonzaga has put up 98, 87, and 83 points in it's 3 games.  This game has offense and scoring written all over it.  Zags have the best offense in the land and USC has a top 15 offense.  I don't feel good about the side, but I feel great about the total.  Anyone care to touch the UNDER in this game?  Despite both teams possessing a top 8 defensive efficiency, Vegas has still hung 153 on this game.  Play Over 153

UCLA/Michigan - UCLA has come from needing a play-in-game to just make it, to being a game away from the Final Four.  They were down 11 at the half in the play-in-game, forced OT, and prevailed.  They next handled BYU with ease. They next had the good fortune of dodging Texas, and obliterated Abilene Christian.  Then, after squandering a 11 point halftime lead and Alabama forcing OT with a late 3 (where many teams could have folded), UCLA rose to the occasion and took over in OT.  This team has something magical going for them.  Michigan no doubt is a great team but are still missing Livers and if this game is tight late, I can see UCLA prevail.  The last two 11 seeds that made it this far in their journey (VCU, Loyola) both made the final four.  Play UCLA +7 and smaller play on UCLA ML.  

BOL.   

@FeltonsFollies

Nice call and hope you profited well my friend.  I was unable to take advantage of profit on this game due to putting some faith in Iowa today.  Disgraceful performance.  Took 3 live wagers on Oregon at -6.5 odds and took one on Iowa at +14.5 (miss) and +16.5 (hit).  I thought I was looking at 5-for-5 there but it's a shame this team had no guts, heart, or desire whatsoever today.  

Oregon is in a great spot and it certainly looks like the "freebie" they got in the first round against VCU is proving to be a major factor in terms of fresh legs and energy.   I still think this game is far from over.

In terms of value, there is definitely more value on Iowa.  Even if Oregon plays lights out and blows Iowa out of the building, in such scenarios, I lean on pre-game favorites as a live dog getting points.  In the long run, this has been a winning formula for me for over a decade.  I have no horse in this game.

@FeltonsFollies

 Even if you are spot on your take my friend, there is ZERO value in taking Oregon +5 2h.  Iowa was a pregame 5 point favorite and a -200 or so pre-tournament to make the sweet 16.  If anything, there is supreme value in taking Iowa -5 2h.  It's like getting a 5 point favorite as a 5 point dog.  Iowa can have a plethora of ways to cover the 2h (garbage time 3 down 7, game going down to wire and Oregon winning it by less than 5 via free throws, or a full comeback from Iowa to win the game and not cover).  I can't fault you at all for liking Oregon when they have put up 56 in the first half and closed the half on a 17-4 run....but to say this is easy money is discounting Iowa and Luka Garza from putting up any kind of fight.  BOL. 

1 of the above 4 teams (Illinois) got KO'd but it's not surprising it came at the hands of a top-10 Kenpom team.  I love Gonzaga more than any of these teams to cut down the nets in April.  If Gonzaga faces Michigan in the Final Four, I see the winner of that game winning it all.  No one besides Houston on the opposite side of the brackets currently possesses both a top-20 AdjO and Adjd and I'll take my chances given the 18 years of sample data.  Cheers all. 

BOL all!!  So pumped that the tournament is officially underway! 

Hi All - In reviewing Kenpom.com data from 2002 until 2019 I see some compelling angles I feel worth sharing.  18 years of data qualifies in my book    

Total # of Final Four Teams = 72 teams (18 x 4)

In 13 of 18 years (72.22%), 3 or more teams inside top-20 adjusted-defense (AdjD) made the final four.

56 of 72 teams (77.78%) had top-20 AdjD ranking. 

In 17 of past 18 years (94.4%), the national champ had top-20 adjusted-offense (AdjO) ranking.  The lone exception was 2014 UCONN (AdjO =39).  It's noteworthy that had UCONN lost that game, the 2014 runner up Kentucky team would have broken the 100% AdjD trend.

In all 18 years (100%) no more than 2 teams outside top-20 AdjD cracked the final four.  In other words, *as of today* the likelihood of more than 2 teams outside top-20 AdjD making the final four is 0%

In all 18 years (100%) the national champion had a top-20 AdjD.

The current AdjD rankings of NCAA tournament teams are:

Loyola Chi (1), Alabama (2), Tennessee (4), Illinois (5), Kansas (6), Michigan (7), Utah St (8), Gonzaga (10, San Diego St (11), VCU (12), Wisconsin (13), Arkansas (14), UNC (15), Houston (16), St. Bonaventure (17), Rutgers (18), USC (19), Clemson (20)

Of the above teams, the only teams with AdjO inside top 20 are:  Gonzaga (1), Illinois (7), Michigan (6), Houston (8)

BOL with however you choose to use this information!!!  

@wizard1183, I'm with you.  For anyone who thinks that sports cannot be manipulated, or better yet, often manipulated, has not seen the light yet.

@blowoutgm, before calling someone an idiot, I'd implore you to Google Tim Donaghy and the NBA scandal.  Games can ABSOLUTELY BE SCRIPTED.  It was documented that it occurred in the NBA 2002 Western Conference Finals in a heavily wagered series featuring stars like Shaq and Kobe in the biggest stage.  The refs admitted to ensuring that series got sent to 7 games.  I was lucky enough to have the Lakers in that series for 2G which was a significant amount for me at that time.  Match fixing and point shaving has been verified across other sports like tennis, college basketball, etc.  What makes you think it cannot occur in football let alone a high profile game like the super bowl where millions get wagered?  Whether a player does it, a referee does it, a coach does it or a combination of many do it, a dirty game is a dirty game.  Is every single sporting event dirty, of course not, but can high stakes games have some predetermined outcome?  ABSOLUTELY.  I've made it a point to make bigger wagers on low profile games where I feel less vulnerable to a scripted outcome (something like a Jaguars vs. Dolphins type shit).  The only reason I bet knowing games can be scripted is because I have found some edges over doing this for 20 years.

@KK1, you are wasting your valuable time on this forum if picking winners comes easily to you.  If it does, let alone a game like the super bowl, you may be in an elite sports bettor.  More power to you and I hope you apply your wisdom to sports betting than waste your energy name calling people you think are peasants.

I can guarantee anyone who bets long enough will eventually be on the right side and the wrong side of a game at some point in their journey where it will be obvious that the players are not deciding the game.  When that occurs, a feeling of dissatisfaction isn't unusual.  I won a shade over 1100 on this game, but the usual satisfaction I have from picking a solid winner is not there because I watched a biased game.  I could easily have lost on this game if the bias favored KC.  The refs destroyed the chances KC had of establishing momentum in this game, and even if the Bucs win the battle of the trenches on the D-line, the game might have been close enough to be in striking distance for KC to implore a mix of run and pass and not entirely abandon their run game due to a large deficit.  Sitting in a super bowl party in a small gathering with a room full of your loved ones and watching your buddy lose money on a team that the referees are fucking in the ass is the main reason I have a bad taste in my mouth. 

The NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and sports in general have no credibility to me, but are ripe with profit opportunities.

@wizard1183

I'm well aware that fixes and suspect shit happens in sports, it's not just applicable to NFL...which is why I do not bet big on games or have any locks, or see any games as heavy action worthy.  I do however rinse, recycle, and repeat certain situational trends, times to fade the public, go against the grain on games where something seems "too easy", etc.  Too many variables to discuss....but I can tell you that there is money to be made in sports betting and if I do not continue to exploit what has worked for me for several years, it's like throwing money away.