Knicks950

Knicks950
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created a topic BELMONT 10/22 PICKS
in Horse Racing
race 2: 4-5-1-7 I don't think NEWS ANCHOR can lose. I'm hoping the 1,7 and 8 can take some money to keep the price around his 6/5ml which to me is worth a win bet as much as I hate betting short priced favorites. This horse was bet like he couldnt lose, and he simply was very green and uncomfortable buried on the rail in his last start. With a smaller field and better post to maneuver today, I find it very difficult given any improvement whatsoever for this horse to not run by them all.
WIN: 4

race 3: 3-1-5-4 A lot of people seem to be on HAMMER'S VISION for Lynch off a 6 month layoff, but he's actually never won at this distance on dirt and only ran once. Although a capable winner (as everyone in this short field is), I don't trust taking on top especially if he takes money from the 5/1ml. HEY JABBER JAW looks to be lone speed and it might be tough for multiple horses to get by given the pace projection. My top pick is GREAT STUFF for one of the two Jacobson entries. He is so good at holding if not improving horses form off wins, and I think he was just getting his legs under him late in that parx win off a 9-month layoff. I know hes gotta rally from the back with no pace, but if he's as sharp as I think, it might not matter. 
EXACTA: 1,3 box. 

race 4: 5-1-8-2 I'm against JAHAAFEL in here as a short priced favorite, as I bet him last out thinking the slightest improvement would get the job done against that field, and I simply cannot get over the fact he couldnt get by Nowinadrive, who cannot win and now seems to be going backwards. He appears to have a tactical advantage in here along with the best speed figs and the most eligibility to improve along with an eligibility to like the added distance, so maybe I'm being stupid and stubborn. I'm gonna take a small shot against him with Chad's entry CULTURE CARRIER as the blinkers go on. This one looked to show some ability down the stretch of his debut, and he was clearly uncomfortable and very green early getting shuffled back to last. Horses can take massive steps up in their second career start going long on the turf, and I love the fact Chad adds blinkers here. I also don't put it out of the question for Javy to get involved early at this distance and for him to be forwardly placed. Wish there was some moisture in the ground given his pedigree, but the race is coming back strong and he was closing on them so that's enough for me. Curious to see the price at post time as I can see this being a wise guy horse and taking sharp money. Anything above 3/1 is ok with me.
WIN: 5
EXACTA: 5/1,2,8 key box. 

race 6: 10-11-5-1 I think this is totally HIGH JINGO's race to lose. The field isnt full of much talent, and she has the right to simply be the best horse. Proven from off the pace and I expect Paco to sit an ideal trip stalking the speed, which should be SWAYED coming off a freshening and Irad snagging the mount. She is clearly the biggest threat in my opinion, but seemingly needing the lead with that 11 post isn't ideal. If there is a cooker up front, the only two closers I'd take is ITSINTHESTARS and LAURAS PATRIOT who is in sneaky good form. 
WIN: 10
EXACTA: 10/1,5,11

race 7: 3-6-11-10 This is a race where you'd love to hear what the trainers think of horses like NO DOZING and SOUPER TAPIT going turf for first time, as that would make all the difference in a top selection. Those two are clearly the most talented race horses in this field, but surface is the million dollar question. I think this is actually a spot to get sneaky value out of Chad's entry LET'S GET LOUD. I love that he's freshened and has a dressed down speed fig comparatively to the field. Javy stays and you know he's gonna run a good race. FACT FINDING is another ? mark as he stretches out second off a long layoff. That start last month was most likely a prep to go longer, so he's really tough to leave off any multi race tickets. My stand against is anyone out of the Funtastic race, which sort of contradicts my top selection, but again it's more a matter of value along with the lack of proven success on the surface and distance for the other contenders. 
WIN: 3
EXACTA: 3/11 cold. 6,10,11/3 backup.

race 8: 3-10-7-9 Tricky little turf sprint. Linda having two including the class and lone speed for a gradually improving horse is very scary, but I really dont like the current form of WHISKEY SEVEN. For sequences, I'd use her two, SANDY'Z SLEW, and the shipper ROBEY'S BOY assuming they wouldnt ship up to NY for a statebred OC this late in the season and protect him unless he was well meant and in sharp form. 

race 9: 11-3-8-1 A difficult finale that could have a bunch of possible winners. I'm gonna go back to the well with DATA DEPENDENT, hoping to get a solid price after a disappointing loss at even money to a 52/1 bomber. That should make people pass her up this time around especially with a giant purchase price firster in here for Chad as well to attract all the money. I also think MOVIEMAKER used that sprint as a prep for this, which he should like much better going this mile distance and Casse is solid with second time starters on the turf. Concerned about getting pace to run into, especially if the 13 doesnt draw in and the 1 not being proven to have the same speed on turf, but Paco and Kendrick are aggressive riders. 
WIN: 11
EXACTA: 11/1,3,8 key box. 

GL TO ALL!
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Knicks950 1
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replied to BELMONT WED 10/4 WINNERS!!
in Horse Racing
*Race 6: 2-3-1-9-6-12 This race really looks to lack early speed. It looks like HAVANA AFFAIR could get aggressive with Nik Juarez with the only other speed being RECONSIDER IT for the 0-49 John Hertler barn. It looks like HAVANA AFFAIR is headed in the right direction in the Zito barn and she really ran great first time going long on the turf. Now goes one turn with a favorable pace scenario and turf condition and has more of an improvement angle than anyone else. No chance at the 10/1ml but to me is the best bet. If the pace is honest, COREY Q and GRAND BANKS look to be the two running late. In a junky race like this, I'd go with the all or nothing approach and do the exacta with HAVANA on top, and for sequences go half the field to get out as written above. 
WIN: 2
EXACTA: 2/1,3,6,9

**Race 7: 6-4-1a-5  I like how Nevin stretches AREWEHAVINGFUNYET out to the one turn mile and has worked 4 times since the Aug23 start where she aimlessly chased the lone speed and was 7 in front of third. 3rd start off the claim and moves up to 25k level from 16k which is another positive sign. Should sit a nice forward trip as well long as Manny doesnt have her too wide.
WIN: 6

**Race 8: 8-3-2-6  BROKEN BORDER definitely the horse to beat and got Beer's best bet of the day. definitely wants one turn and was sharp both times this trip at Belmont. Up for claim and dont know if the value will be there. My pick is PAZ THE BOURBON who I think is on the improve and this 7f will hit her right in the mouth. Love how she was coming with her best foot late, and I expect a big effort off what should be an honest pace. DRIVEN BY SPEED is a capable winner but I dont trust her wiring the field with the presence of the 12 and 6. FIRST APPEAL is the horse on the improve of the two Linda Rice entries and I give an outside chance cause of how good she is in turf sprints. 
WIN: 8
EXACTA: 3,8 BOX. 

Race 9: 2-3-1-5 By far my least favorite race on the card. very tough to figure, but my best bet was going with the horse claimed off a layoff. In a field this weak, I want one who you expect to offer a big effort with new training tactics. DADDYISDOOLEY offers the most upside.


I welcome any comments, opinions/views  

GL To All!
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Knicks950 2
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created a topic BELMONT WED 10/4 WINNERS!!
in Horse Racing
BELMONT 10/4

***Race 1: 3-4-2-5 I think if ZAP ZAP ZAP takes to the added distance he should control the race and win. Going :45 flat half mile at 6.5f is a totally differnt ballgame than going the :24 :48 he's gonna go today most likely being clear on the lead. D'AMBROSIO I'm not sure how good he actually is, but is more proven to enjoy this one turn distance and definitely could improve. His trip in Toga was terrible and you couldnt be wide and be there late on that 9f demanding course.  
WIN: 3
EXACTA: 3/4
PICK 5: 3/2,4,5/2,4/all/4 $36

*Race 2: 2-5-4-7 Trusting Mott with this one. LENGTH looks like a big time pedigree and should improve with each start. When he ran last on Sep9 the track was playing much different than now. Also was first time with blinkers and lugged in a bit late. Never was a huge fan of POUNDS TO PENNIES, but she did finish very strong at Suffolk last out, and horses like that run well next time usually. Curious where the pace is gonna come from though. Could see LENGTH deciding to sit off and save her kick for late, or could see making the pace with potentially WAKE ISLAND and EQUALITYFORALL. 
EXACTA: 2,5 BOX
TRIFECTA: 2,5/4/2,5,7

***Race 3: 2-4-5-1 Probably CARLINO wins easy. Something smells fishy about the favorite though. I'm gonna take a shot against with GOING STRONG for Contessa who I think made a sharp claim here. After laying off for three months, he brings it back at 6.5f and really finished well without being asked a ton, almost like it was a little bit of a prep. Now he fires back 10 days later at a mile in a short field that could be looked at very confidently from a connection betting standpoint with only one horse to beat. Also note that CARLINO has not worked since his last start which isnt the greatest sign. Another reason I'm leaning GOING STRONG is because despite only being an 8% trainer, Irad is 14% when riding for this outfit which is interesting. 
*WIN: 2
EXACTA: 2/4
 
*Race 4: 3-8-11-4 HOPONTHEBUSGUS gets back to the Belmont course he likes most and gets some more room for a Rudy Rod barn thats just about to get going. I think he could sit more forward and have a good run against a very suspect group. After him, I really could go many different ways.  TRANSACTION TAX might be in a vulnerable spot not controlling the race on this cutback. Plus, I've never been a big fan of this horse and Chad looks to have no problem parting with her. That being said, she is still a potential winner for sequence plays and should be used defensively. 
WIN: 3

*****Race 5: 4-5-3 I think BOULE is the class of this short field. Broke poorly and has shown ability to go to lead, so I expect her to be forwardly placed in here. Someone is gonna have to run her down, and I just see this filly liking going longer and winning fairly easily.
WIN: 4
TRIFECTA: 4/3/5

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Knicks950 2
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replied to BELMONT 9/15 PICKS & ANALYSIS
in Horse Racing
Race 9: Struggling to see where the speed is gonna come from which really makes the race intriguing. My guess is REALM with Jose Ortiz on board will take the honors especially being on the rail. He flashed some sprint speed very early in his career and has proved to be forwardly placed in races at this distance. Jose separates himself from the pack by being aggressive in paceless races exactly like this one, and I really like his chances. I'll take him on top today. YOUR TO BLAME is a giant threat and deserving favorite on the cutback and Chad Brown is so good with adding blinkers. The blinkers could improve his early position, but he is still a proven closer with the pace not shaping up to favor him and that in itself is enough to try and beat. VULCAN'S FORGE has to be considered a win threat if you like REALM, which I do, so getting back to what looks to be his preferred surface could make him very live, but he is a dead closer and I'm against that in this field. MO TOWN had alot of promise as a 2yo after winning the Remsen but hasn't shown form since. The last effort at 7f was encouraging, and with Johnny V cherry picking back on, maybe this is his day to regain that 2yo form. DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING has a great post for his style, and this cutback should help his late kick. For some reason Cancel rushed up to challenge for the lead in an awkardly run 4 horse race just last week, and it cost him late. Today, he should sit a nice stalking trip in 3-4th and have nice punch late to try and get up. Running back this quick must be a positive, and I give him a big shot today but the switch to a one turn race hasn't been done in a long time, and this is a salty group to trust something new.
1-7-2-6
WIN: 1
EXACTA: 1/2,7 key box

Race 10: RISKY SOUR snapped his whip down the stretch which didnt allow Irad to go right late and switch leads. I dont think it would have gotten him the win, but it leaves I guess a bit to be desired given he was also sort of bottled in during the beginning of stretch, and the horse has been showing some life of late despite the 0-33. RISKY SOUR only has two 2nd place finishes so I think that adds an upside seeing the form turnaround. He's a very capable winner that people won't wanna take as a favorite and I wont leave him off any sequence or exacta. KIERLAND is claimed by a barn that isnt know much for dabbling in that department, and doing it off Mike Maker is tough so definitely a big negative, but his trip in last was crushed early when getting pinched and then being uncomfortable and making a middle move before flattening. He is definitely the trip handicappers pick out of that race and will probably take money. He is way dressed down and could prove best. I also expect a more aggressive ride with Saez back on. ZJ WINS is a capable winner, but it doesnt show much confidence being off since the private purchase and now up for 40k in a weak field. Maybe he is much the best, but I think its a negative. After that I dont see much for legit win candidates. My top pick will depend on paddock report and tote board, but it'll be between RISKY SOUR and KIERLAND. 
7-6-5-11

***BEST BETS***
RACE 4: WIN 11 SET ME UP

RACE 5: WIN: 8 ABBREVIATE
EXACTA: 8/2
TRIFECTA: 8/2/1,4,6. 8/4/1,2

RACE 7: WIN 2 MISS KATIE MAE

RACE 9: WIN: 1 REALM
EXACTA: 1/2,7 key box

GL TO ALL!


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Knicks950 3
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replied to BELMONT 9/15 PICKS & ANALYSIS
in Horse Racing
Race 5: ABBREVIATE to me is a total cinch single and most likely winner. I expect 5/2 to be a pipe dream and for everyone to gravitate here given the connections. For second, it looks obvious to take BOOMBOOMBOOM over HOLLYWOOD ROYAL given BOOM missed the break badly and pinched off and still managed to pass HOLLYWOOD ROYAL, but that was at 5.5f and now we're going 7f on the widener. At a much better exacta price, I think HOLLYWOOD ROYAL will hopefully be more settled with the lasix and less keen early, being able to settle easier on the lead and enjoy the extra distance instead of struggling through it. I'll use BOOMBOOMBOOM along with JAUNT to round out the triple.
8-2-4-1
WIN: 8
EXACTA: 8/2
TRIFECTA: 8/2/1,4,6. 8/4/1,2

Race 7: I think MISS KATIE MAE is the most talented horse in this race, plain and simple. I know most will see this as a very contentious race that will be decided tightly and they're right, but to me this horse has no excuse to lose this race. There is plenty of speed signed on with TRUE CHARM, MORE ROYALTY, and EILA all looking to be fast early, and with the course playing very fair I think that gives every opportunity to MISS KATIE MAE to save ground under new rider Castellano, who had a tough Saratoga meet and has been zoned in since returning to Belmont, and I think is the perfect guy to remedy who's had promise since the nice showing against Lady Aurelia at Keeneland in April. Her form is sharper than it appears as well. Two back she ran huge and just got beat by a totally loaded horse, and last out was for some reason hustled early to get more on the pace, but took enough of the grunt of a hot pace to flatten and proved that making one late run is her preferred style. If she gets a clean trip, I expect her to get up. 
2-3-5-7
WIN: 2

Race 8: ISLAND REWARD looks to be the horse to beat and the cutback should help. Servis Dubb are such high % guys and they surely are the most likely winner. Great post and tactical style for this race as well. ANOTHER GENIUS is taking a big time drop in class here, and for 35k a good chance someone will claim her so you have to figure the horse is well meant to win today, and Jose stays. Not in love with current form but proven at the track and distance and can't be ruled out from win contention. TAPA LIATH is probably my third choice but I don't like the layoff or the fact she's unproven at the distance. Martin is such a high % trainer that you always have to watch the money and take a long look. ACTIVE RUNNER would be the sneaky horse to get loose on the lead and brave late at a big price for Mike Maker and Saez. These guys have a tendency to be very greasy and this one definitely has a bit of a stench to it. There is zero indication that this horse can get 7f on the widener with rails out 9ft and very few if any this meet being able to wire in those circumstances, but I definitely don't rule it out. 
10-2-4-1

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Knicks950 3
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created a topic BELMONT 9/15 PICKS & ANALYSIS
in Horse Racing
Race 1:  DARK OPS took an insane amount of money in his debut at Saratoga bet down to 6/5. SEA FOAM beat him home that day at a much bigger price, but that money assures me that DARK OPS must have promise and I'll take him to turn the tables. I think this race is between those two and COLLECTIVE EFFORT, as I will play against first timers in this particular statebred field.
6-4-5-1
WIN: 6

Race 2: I'm gonna play against the logical speed horses like ZEVEN and MADISON BLUES on the widener, as I don't see anyone getting an easy enough time to get it done. MISS AJA BROWN is a tough one to read, but i see the favoritism as she galloped out with a ton of energy. My knock would be taking a short price in an open race off of a trip I can't find any problems with. Maybe she proves good enough, but I'd rather take value. My top play is BELIEVE INDEED who takes a drop back to reality after two tries against starter allowance company. Her last effort at this level was solid, showing nice late kick and getting beat in a photo and if she can return to that form I think she looms a big threat. The outside posts have been winning so far this meet on the widener, and I could see her working a trip.
10-9-4-11-6-1a

Race 3: If MAKEALITTLELOVE holds form, she should win. At this level it's tough to trust a short price never proving to run two big races in a row, but her last win was challenged on the front end and against much tougher than this group. If she battles with MADAM AAMOURA and wears down, my second choice would be HOLD ON MOMMA off the claim for Gullo after a freshening. 
3-4-2-6

Race 4: So this race looks to be broken down into two races, the Aug11 Uncle Chester, and Aug17 YoulikeThat. Of the two, I definitely prefer the Aug11 race to take a horse out of, as to me the 30/1ml Youlikethat won easily gate to wire proving how truly weak that maiden40k field was. I just think SET ME UP is the most likely winner in here. To me, many of these horses aren't capable of crossing first, and SET ME UP by far has the most upside coming second off the layoff after blowing the break in his last and still finishing probably best of all and galloping out strong. Javy returns for the ride and despite the bad post I think with a good break could be more forward throughout. 
11-5-12-10
WIN: 11

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Knicks950 3
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replied to SARATOGA WED 8/30
in Horse Racing
I'll also note that it looks as if the field is running away from MR CROW in race 8 with three scratched from the field. He is probably just too tough for this field so I'll be playing against very small if at all depending on the tote.
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Knicks950 5
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replied to SARATOGA WED 8/30
in Horse Racing
Race 7: I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of those fields where Chad Brown just comes 1-2. The clear horse to beat and my top pick is DURABLE GOODS, who should be able to sit forwardly on the stretchout and be close enough to get the job done if improved, which I expect. DURABLE GOODS looks to be stakes quality for Chad, and I think this is a stepping stone race to exactly that. His two races have both been very impressive, has pedigree to relish this distance, and should simply be too good for this field. DOVECOTE and PALINODIE are the other two win candidates, the first being the other Chad entry for Juddmonte who is a big finisher that could enjoy the cutback, the latter PALINODIE a French bred Clement horse that looks very well meant off a layoff. PALINODIE looks to be a stakes quality filly that if ready to rock off the layoff could simply be the class. How I got there; MOANA looks to be searching here with a turf attempt after disappointing in big dirt races and I take that as a negative. SEAFIRE while being my big price play and will use underneath, is most likely a cut below the best here. FLOWER VALLEY never gets it done and will probably finish underneath with a favorable forward trip as usual. Maybe the cutback helps her finish but tough to trust outfinishing both Chads and Clement. TISBURY should be used underneath and in deep tickets simply for the fact she's firing fresh and looks to be training well into this. A big effort puts her right in the mix, but she will need a career effort to have a shot at beating the top talents. BARREL OF DREAMS looks to be the main speed and will need to break good to clear effectively from the outside, but holding everyone off to the wire seems unlikely. If the track is playing fast, definitely include underneath.
6-9-2-11
**WIN 6 DURABLE GOODS**
EXACTA: 6/2,9,11

Race 8: Let me start by saying MR CROW most likely will be the class of this race and win handily, but I can make a legitimate case why he may not win and why he definitely is a bad bet. First, he is coming off a 109 beyer with the next highest in the field being a 94 from PATTERN RECOGNITION and nobody else above 90, so he is probably gonna be in the 2/5-1/2 range at post time. But there is no way that 109 is coming back, and if he was that good why wouldn't they try him in a big race like Kiaren did putting Fayeq in the Travers. The second place finisher of last came back to run a 71, 11 points lower than the 82 he got for finishing bus lengths behind MR CROW, and Takaful, who beat PATTERN RECOGNITION (day after Mr Crow ran so very similar track conditions) and got a 105 figure for that came back to get a 94, also 11 points lower, while running huge to come second to Practical Joke in a Grade 1. So I'm a believer that those figures are very dressed up and stand no chance of being duplicated. Lastly, MR CROW (while I think he will relish the extra distance but nonetheless has to prove it) has to go first vs winners at a new distance as that huge odds on favorite. I will take a small shot against both of these popular choices with CAVIL. This is really the only one I trust to beat the Chad and Todd horses given Cavil's pedigree and connections. I understand every race besides his lone win has been bad, but its been against a serious group. He broke slowly after a 6 month layoff and rushed up to ultimately fade in his last, and if Jose can put him in a nice forward position after a clean break, maybe he can finally run the race his connections have clearly thought capable and win at a big price. 
1-6-2-3

Race 9: Let me preface this and say these high quality, lightly raced horses running for the 2nd or 3rd time is by no means my strong suit, and I always look for prices in spots like this because of the extreme improvement horses are eligible to have. This race for a main event Grade 3 has a lot of guessing to do. What is particularly hard to do is identifying the horse(s) that's coming out of the strongest race. Logic would tell you it's the race where three different connections felt strong enough to enter here, which is the Aug5 race with TRUMPI, SEABHAC, and IRISH TERRITORY. All are definitely win candidates, but my pick out of that race has to be IRISH TERRITORY which will offer by far the best value. His debut was very green, steadying early, and then for some reason greenly losing contact with the field dropping way back to last before angling widest of all and finishing to me just as well as anyone in that race. Mott has given him two sharp works since, including a bullet 4f, and that might indicate a more forward placement and improved effort second time out. There's also the horses that pass the eye test, and those are UNTAMED DOMAIN and EVALUATOR. They both overcame troubled trips to gobble up their respective fields and draw away handily. Then there's the shippers from outside tracks, in which my pick of the litter would be Brad Cox's FORT WISE TREATY at a big price. So many ways to go and absolutely a spread race in multi's, but a stand needs to be made as only one can win and I'm gonna go with UNTAMED DOMAIN. I really like the way Motion and West Point have handled this 2yo colt and the way he finished on a hand ride was impressive. I just think he's gonna keep moving forward with each race. With the times and figs being very much up for debate in these races, I chose the eye test angle and UNTAMED over EVALUATOR because of Evaluator's race being against statebred company. I happen to think UNTAMED DOMAIN is a promising talent just scratching the surface, and I anticipate a big effort and another improvement. 
8-9-6-11-5

Race 10: UNDER SUSPICION is the deserving favorite and very likely winner to me. She took big sharp money first out and appeared well meant, battling from the rail with 3-4 horses dueling for the lead. She kept running to the wire, angling out greenly late, but looked to benefit from the race. Now UNDER SUSPICION draws a favorable outside post and runs at a very difficult distance of 7f to win first out and has a giant advantage in here. Tom Morley looks to be the main threat to the Broman/Serpe favorite, having two in here including a firster SUNBLOCK who has been training steadily, and CLIMB THE LADDER who finished a distant secont to a much best winner early in the meet. Irad however hops off CLIMB THE LADDER to ride the 3/1 respected morning line SALTY SMILE for Rudy Rod, so if you're not singling in multi's this one is a must include.
9-6-7-3
**WIN 9 UNDER SUSPICION**


BEST BET is DURABLE GOODS in race 7.
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Knicks950 5
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replied to SARATOGA WED 8/30
in Horse Racing
Race 4: If the 2 FOREIGN AFFAIR can break well she should be a big win threat, and she is my top pick at what should be a decent price. This filly spotted the field about 8 lengths in her first start as a 3yo on turf and did well to make up some ground and get with the field but that was it. Next out it was taken off turf and again she was slow to start, rushed up, and still really was game enought to run right to the wire with the winner who got a perfect trip. After that and really overall, you can make a case for many. I expect Paco to put EVERYTHINGS COPA in a good forward position if not on the lead early and put the horse in a situation where if good enough, she can win. MORE THAN A LEGEND is on her third start as a 4yo and adds blinkers for Kimmel who has gotten both his wins recently and is warming up. Chad is always a threat with Jose on TRANSACTION TAX dropping and trying turf for the first time, but I'm dubious of this horses ability. The 1a ETERNAL VOW can't be counted out dropping in first start for Pletcher on a private purchase from the retired Hushion barn. SUBIC BAY finished well two back off the layoff and faced a tough field last out. The drop and cutback could help her late kick 3rd start on form cycle. 
2-1a-5-6

Race 5: If I'm taking anyone out of the Aug3 race, its AVERY MAEVE, who endured all of the speed challenges and was right there at the blanket finish. She was the only horse up on the pace who finished as the race totally collapsed late. This was also when the rails were pushed out and it seemed impossible to win on the front end in these turf sprints on the mellon. There's enough not to like with the favorite R LUCKY CHARM to try and beat, as she needs to prove to me those last couple figures are for real and hold up. Also, there seems to be enough speed in here where her preferred running style might not work out. The other way to go would be a new shooter, and my best choice is MISTY ON POINTE for Horacio DePaz,  whom it seems sends out live runners almost every time. This horse finished with a ton of run in her first start as a 3yo at Laurel Park, and she is clearly well meant in this spot. TARQUINIA is the total wild card off the claim for Mike Maker getting back to a turn sprint and attracts Jose Ortiz. Use him defensively. 
5-2-9-3
**WIN 5 AVERY MAEVE**
EXACTA: 5/2,9,10
backup exacta: 2/5,9,10

Race 6: Hate this race. Such a guessing game. SEAM looks to be a popular pick for Pletcher but why the long layoff? He's either got this as an ace in the hole for trainer title hopes or we'll see him dumped off for a tag early in the Belmont fall meet. Chad has two in here also, WISE STRIKE who should be right there when the dust settles, and STROMBOLIAN who attracts Javy over a 725k purchase GIFTED LADY who grabs Jose and adds blinkers. If I had to bet this race, I'd probably take an interesting stand here and key PRESUMPTUOUS in second, who is in nice form but I feel like one will end up being better.
3-4-2-6-8
small exacta: 3,4,6,8/2. 


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Knicks950 5
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created a topic SARATOGA WED 8/30
in Horse Racing
After a very successful Travers day, I'll be making my way up to Saratoga today (only couple hour drive upstate) so I did my homework for the whole card and might as well share it. I will mention that today's card is extremely tricky with many guessing game races and should be proceeded with caution. However, these are the types of cards that can have some great prices. Good luck to all!


Race 1: A really junky group of bottom level maidens here, and I'm definitely confused on where to go. In races like this, sometimes value is very high as many runners aren't physically capable of winning, but I cannot find a solid way to go here. It leaves me with the favorite SPECIAL RISK, who at least has a last out dirt effort against a horse that competed against much tougher starter allowance groups, and was passing some horses in his most recent turf effort. It seems most handicappers are trying to beat her, with COMMUNION MONEY and LIAM'S WORLD being trendy picks. They both do offer early foot and a win angle with both trainers having excellent turf/dirt numbers, but I'm skeptical. SPECIAL RISK is owned by Michael Dubb who has the favorite in race 3 also, and appears well meant today. They at one point thought enough to enter in a Grade 1 race, and as recent as early spring still thought enough to enter against winners as a maiden. I'll follow the tote for some clues but by process of elimination I land here.
6-9-2-7

Race 2: CALL PROVISION and TASIT are clearly the two horses to beat, and both expect to take money, particularly Chad's horse who finished ahead of TASIT in their last race. Both have upside, as CALL PROVISION is on his third start of the form cycle and didn't have the most ideal trip last out, and TASIT is a new gelding which should help his keen attitude he's displayed early on in races. The other potential option is ALTAR BOY, who got steadied at the start and was dead last with no real winning chance. I'm not sure what his winning distance is around two turns, and as much as I think he could have a tactical advantage and get first jump on the two favorites, it is really tough to trust something that hasn't been proved against tough rivals. There are a couple speed types signed on here, and while I'll admit I don't trust fractions being hot at all, the rail is pushed out 9ft which should control the speed bias there's been since they pushed them back in to 0ft and really make it a match race down the stretch in my opinion. I'll give TASIT top pick honors simply for the value he'll offer over CALL PROVISION, who looks to be a potential odds on favorite.
8-4-1a-5
EX BOX: 4,8

Race 3: Out of the common Aug7 race, I want STREET HEAT, and I'll also make that my top pick. This horse was very wide basically throughout in his first start since late May, and being wide on this 9f distance at Saratoga is death. He's fit enough to breeze twice since and gets the rail post this time around. Rudy and Dubb are so deadly with these low level claimers and Dubb is fighting for the owner title, so motivation is high against this really weak bunch. My outside the Aug7 race pick would be DUNK A DIN, and I do like to side with the horse in winning form over a more talented horse not in form. Check the pick 3 will pays before, Dubb will pound that pool if he's expected to run big and win.
1-4-2-6
**WIN 1 STREET HEAT**

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Knicks950 5
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replied to *SARATOGA TRAVERS CARD PICKS AND ANALYSIS*
in Horse Racing
Quote Originally Posted by jbeamz:

thanks for write up!!!!......2-5-9 in the 5th........

Looks like we see the race similar as your picks seem to be forecasting a hot pace and meltdown. If so, looks to be bombs away!

GL today Beamz
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Knicks950 7
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replied to *SARATOGA TRAVERS CARD PICKS AND ANALYSIS*
in Horse Racing
please share any opinions on the races or picks. as we know in this game the more info the better.
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Knicks950 7
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replied to *SARATOGA TRAVERS CARD PICKS AND ANALYSIS*
in Horse Racing

Race 10: The shippers really throw a monkey wrench through this race, but they also don't throw any early pace into the equation either, which this field is lacking. FRANK CONVERSATION is expected to be the leader, but he's proven to not be one to get overly aggressive for it. BIGGER PICTURE is a seemingly push-button horse that I expect forwardly placed with Jose back on board after a ride that has the right to be questioned. MONEY MULTIPLIER was keen to go on after not much pace in a Monmouth prep that he won fairly easily on a smart and savvy ride by Javy who contained but didnt strangle the horse. IDAHO is the shipper I want of the two, as I trust his current form more and Aiden Obrien/Ryan Moore combo is so deadly. Those are without question to me the four win candidates and choices to get out of multi's, but my top pick is MONEY MULTIPLIER. I think this horse has a right to show a career effort here second off long layoff and getting to the distance he probably prefers, even though he's yet to win at this distance. This horse has been up against the best and given the rails are back down I don't see the course playing to these deep closers. If Chad has this one ready to fire, he could be very tough to run down. BIGGER PICTURE would be my second choice, with a close third being SADLERS JOY. As much as I love SADLER, I really feel last time was the time for him and its unfortunate Javy made such a premature move that clearly cost him the race. 
5-2-3-7-10
WIN: 5
EXACTA: 2,5 box. 5/6,7 key box. 3/2,5 backup.

Race 11: Such an intriguing Travers this year with a very deep and contentious field. Of the 12 runners, I have my win candidates as WEST COAST, TAPWRIT, GOOD SAMARITAN, GIRVIN, and IRAP. Those are the five that I think will handle the distance effectively enough to win. My top pick is going to be WEST COAST for Baffert. I really think this horse keeps getting better, and I love his upside potential and the confidence for Bob to ship him. I love the way Bob handled him after getting a bad start in Belmont and still rushing up and winning easily, then at Los Al where he looked to be deliberately ran in the center of the track throughout the race to still pull away late looking as if he would relish more distance. He should sit a nice stalking trip and save some ground early and get the jump on all the others. If he works the right trip under mike smith, I think he should be best. My second choice would be GOOD SAMARITAN, but he comes from so far back and I'm concerned about the fractions with not much definitive speed signed on besides Always Dreaming to take on the win end. IRAP if breaks well should sit a nice stalking trip as I project him sitting second off Dreaming, and has been improving steadily. He is definitely my price play at 8/1 or better, and will be used. GIRVIN and TAPWRIT are also both very capable of winning. 
3-5-10-4-6
****WIN: 3****
*EXACTA: **3,5 box**. 3/4,5,6,10 wheel and key box.  3/5,10.*
TRIFECTA: 3/5,10/4,5,6,10. 

Race 12: Looks like Chad should have control of this race. The only win candidate outside of his three is DICKINSON and i feel like she might have peaked and fallen out of her sharpest form, which is what it would take to win this. That leaves me splitting hairs between the three Chad entries, and I have to go with LADY ELI even at a short price on top. She's training excellent, and she really wasn't even asked for much in her last when coming from the back with a slow pace. If Chad has her running her best race, she is too tough in here. ANTONOE wouldn't shock me one bit if she won, and although squeezed down at the rail she still saved every inch throughout and got a perfect trip before that. I'm very skeptical even with a clean trip that she gets by ELI. ROCA ROJO is the one with most time off but hasn't proven to be as classy, but that does not mean she cant be. Its either single or a must to use all three.
1-5-2

Good luck to all and POUND WEST COAST!!
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Knicks950 7
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replied to *SARATOGA TRAVERS CARD PICKS AND ANALYSIS*
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Race 6: SONGBIRD looks to be too tough to beat in here, and GOING FOR BROKE looks ready to take a big step up here and take some money and underneath play. FOREVER UNBRIDLED is my shot against here as I've really wanted to play against SONGBIRD for a while but the time is never right. I think she is beatable, and her last performance was not very visually impressive. FOREVER UNBRIDLED is coming off a very nice prep that was better than it looks, and has races that compete with Songbird. If Dallas Stewart really did improve this 5yo mare over the winter, she could be cranked for a big one. 
2-3-4

Race 7: Not one of my preferred betting races on the card. I wouldnt be surprised if anyone won, but my best bet would be DISTINTA who is newly acquired in the Pletcher barn. I doubt Todd and his connections would private purchase and enter in a G1 travers day if she wasnt well meant, and with this trainer upgrade, a slight improvement puts her right there speed figure wise. Johnny V takes the ride and she should sit an outside stalking trip and have every right to compete for the win if good enough. 
6-3-4-7

Race 8: It looks to be a very hot pace in this one as TAKAFUL, PHI BETA EXPRESS, and COAL FRONT all confirmed front runners. Even if COAL FRONT tries to rate for the first time as I expect, the other two should ensure at most a 22 45 flat pace in a battle for the lead. AMERICAN ANTHEM has been a beast his last two starts and looks fresh and fit. He is a very capable winner and should sit a good outside stalking trip. PRACTICAL JOKE will save all the ground and look to angle out late and make a big closing push with hopefully a hot pace to run into. My top pick is TAKAFUL, who I think has always been a 3yo with a ton of talent and finally gets back in form and running a preferred distance. PHI BETA EXPRESS is the challenging speed, but the way he rushed up despite a shakey start and won so easily, I think that will catch up with him here along with the giant class hike. This should leave TAKAFUL on his own down the stretch with the two favorites coming at him, but after watching that gallop out I think this horse is gonna be ready to explode. Also, I wanna note this race came opening day when the track was particularly playing against speed and to still carry it like he did was impressive.
2-1-9-7
**WIN: 2**
*EXACTA: 2/1,7,9.  2/1. 1,2 box.*

Race 9: Somehow in the G1 Forego at 7f there is only one confirmed speed, and it's DREFONG for Baffert. This huge tactical advantage cannot be overlooked as he breaks from an ideal post 10 after launching Mike Smith last out but still showing his game without a ride. If he ships and breaks, he should win. Simple as that. Unless a report comes back otherwise, this is one of my most likely winners on the card. My second choice would be DIVINING ROD who is the wise guy play for sure and has proven to be tactical at this distance. He was impressive and dominant in the prep at Laurel, but on a sealed muddy track I have to assume that beyer figure is dressed up and I have a tough time taking on the win end over DREFONG and MIND YOUR BISCUITS. The reason I'm against BISCUITS is his last effort was dressed up in my opinion as the track was playing extremely beneficial to closers, as every front runner was fading by the end of the far turn that day and I cannot play him back here off that effort with little confirmed speed and this ultimately being a prep for breeders cup. 
10-4-6-8
**WIN: 10**
*EXACTA: 10/4,6. 4,10 box. 4/6(small backup)*

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Knicks950 7
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created a topic *SARATOGA TRAVERS CARD PICKS AND ANALYSIS*
in Horse Racing
Below are picks and analysis for this amazing Travers day card:

Saturday Saratoga:

Race 1: Tough race with a bunch of firsters with big pedigrees. Bottom line, a $1M purchase with Chad and Javy on board on Travers day MUST be live. GOOD MAGIC must be some kinda colt and I doubt if you're the owner groups that you debut in this spot to lose. The tote should say a lot so we'll wait and see, but I'm inclined to like this one on top and possibly a single to start the p5. My next choices would be Pletcher and HAZIT, and I think the Brad Cox Irad horse HIGH NORTH looks to be very live and should be well meant. 
8-2-6-5
WIN: 8
EXACTA: 8/2,6 key box. 8/2,5,6

Race 2: The Chad Brown likely favorite FOCUS GROUP did it very impressively in his maiden win closing with a giant rush off of slow fractions. With a cutback of 1.5f you would think this talented colt should be flying late. As much as I want to take this one on top, at the end of the day it's not worth the bet at a short price especially against a deep, much more experienced field like this. The only two horses interested in early speed look to be inside with WAR BOND and MEMORIES OF PETER. Of the two, I absolutely want MEMORIES OF PETER who endured all challenges in his last effort and after watching the replay is a much more impressive effort than it seems. WAR BOND is stepping up in class off a sub par effort losing to a longshot horse and doesn't seem to be competitive on paper, but as much as I want to totally toss this horse, Mike Maker has done sneaky stuff like this too many times, and my gut tells me a better effort is in store. SURPRISE TWIST is my top pick and looks to be the wise guy selection in here as I've seen others high on this horse. I agree with them, and think his last effort was more impressive than it looked along with the figure being dressed down in my opinion. They went very slow throughout in this race which led to some slower than expected figures, and SURPRISE TWIST was really the only horse doing the late running. He got that much needed experience first against winners, galloped out impressively, looks to want this extra distance, should be more forwardly placed after a rough run from the rail, races at 115lb (7lb less than last), and has the most eligibility to improve while being in very sharp form. Those are a lot of reasons to like this horse, and I don't expect to get the 6/1ml. RICHMOND STREET is a horse I want to like so much, but I just can't take on top after his latest effort even with the layoff. I'll use him in sequences, but I need to see a big effort before backing again. HOLIDAY BONUS is very respected on the morning line, and I can't see why. Motion so good in turf routes and I won't be surprised if this one beats me, but I did not see anything in his last start worthy of betting back, and is definitely the logical I'll play against. 
3-2-9-8
**WIN: 3**
EXACTA: 2,3 box

Race 3: A lot of guessing in a race like this. I'll break this one into three categories of contenders; Of the first timers, my best bet would be STRIKE ME DOWN for Motion and Rosario. Of the starters with a race at the distance, I have to choose HE TAKES CHARGE over NEEPAWA for the Casse entries. First reason is the clear value difference, also NEEPAWA has to deal with the outside post this time around and HE TAKES CHARGE did do his best running late and galloped out well, so maybe second time around he can make a big jump and live up to that huge purchase price. Of the horses stretching out off a debut prep, I want Billy Mott's horse with Jose Ortiz FORTUNE COOKIE. He's had ample time off after his debut where the effort is a bit dressed down in my opinion, with very slow fractions set and a gate to wire winner for Ward by 5 lengths who came back to win first vs winners. CHIRPING also shouldn't be left off tickets. Of these three angles to go with, I would take FORTUNE COOKIE as my top pick, but this is a must spread race for multis.
6-8-5-10-2

Race 4: I really don't have anything creative in this race, as my best bet would be THREEFIVEINDIA, who ran very nice 3 wide throughout to finish a game second to a much best horse on a cranked effort. THREEFIVEINDIA was somewhat geared down late but was still finishing with energy and looks to be coming into peak form. He should be close enough to the lead to not really have to worry about an unfavorable pace scenario, and I trust should have great kick late cutting back a half furlong. There looks to be a good amount of early foot in here, and if the pace gets hot there could be a good deal of fading horses late, so after my top pick I'm gonna look to pick up some pieces with OSTROLENKA, STICKSTATELY DUDE, and SPARTIATUS. If the contrary happens for a pace, LEX VEGAS looms a win threat for the struggling Brian Lynch barn, and could be used as a backup to the top choice.
4-2-9-7-3

Race 5: The horse to beat and most likely winner is CLOONTIA, who has proven to win off the pace of a loose leader which is what could happen here. CERISE'S PRINCE seems to be a lot of sharp handicappers' pick and is expected to be speed of speed and carry it. I think with the presence of ROYAL SON and LIEUTENANT COLONEL (who looks to be a rabbit for Mott here) it will ensure a hot early pace and at 1 1/16 on the mellon I dont want to put much stock on a speed horse in this scenario. I would take a shot with SYCAMORE LANE for Bill Mott off over a two year layoff. When you get into layoffs of this extent, I almost have to take it as a positive that Mott chooses a Travers undercard race to unveil him after all this time and all the spots you could pick if you deemed fit and ready to race. He also throws what appears to be a rabbit in the race and adds blinkers for the first time which should help ensure the duties. After those two opinions, there are many ways to go, none of which I'm overly confident in. 
2-4-10-8-1



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Knicks950 7
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created a topic SANTA ANITA 5/14
in Horse Racing
SANTA ANITA

RACE 1: 4 - EDITORE. This horse was very rank through the first half mile in his last and still had some nice run down the stretch. Totally capable of being forwardly placed in this short field without much speed, and I expect him to sit second behind the 1. How I got here: I'm tossing Doug O'neill's two entries here, which wouldn't shock me if it ends up being a mistake, but given their running styles and this short field, I'll take the gamble that they're both field fillers. The 5 got a hot pace in which all the speeds faded badly and he still couldn't win. Given the lack of speed and higher quality closers, I dont love his chances. The 6 is off a long layoff and should most likely be using this race to move forward off of. I'm gonna bet on a merry-go-round here and play the 1,4 all over.

RACE 2: 1 - PICTURE TUBE. There is not much speed in here which scares me, but I'm gonna try and beat the money burning favorite MONTEREY SHALE anyway. I have to think that the 3 is gonna go forward and either challenge the 2 or sit off of him, but given how wide Picture Tube was throughout in his last, I think with the inside post this time around he could make a premature move to get in the race and still carry the momentum through, in other words I think he could be the much best horse in here to overcome a poor pace scenario. For sequences, use the 3 defensively, but I think the two top choices should certainly get you out of here.

RACE 4: 5 - KENDA. I think this one is in the sharpest form with the most eligibility to improve, and despite being first against winners, this one is my top pick. I just don't trust the form of anyone else in the field, as I don't argue that many in here have faced better of recent and simply have a better foundation, but that doesn't always translate to a win. I think KENDA has been getting better every start, especially since being introduced to the downhill turf. 

RACE 7: 3 - NOTED AND QUOTED. I'm gonna trust that Baffert entering Faypien in here is a way to put some pressure on what will be a tough to beat and deserving favorite in the 4 SELCOURT. This could be another redemption ride on the turnback just like yesterday with American Anthem. I think this horse is best going around one turn and as long as he can get some pace to run at, I expect a big finish today. Definitely use the 4 defensively because if nobody makes an honest effort to go with him, Selcourt could be long gone if improved at all. I think an exacta box with 3,4 is a good play.

RACE 8: 5 - UNUSUAL FLEET. I love the work pattern coming up to this off a freshening. He finished well in last while starting a little slow and never really having the most comfortable of trips, and I think a sharper performance today could get him home first. I'm hoping the 2 and maybe someone else can deliver enough pressure to the 4 for the 5 to come off the pace, as both the 2 and 4 have never shown the ability to pass horses or do anything else but go gate to wire. Everyone else seems capable of stalking, so I do fear the 4 being the best, but he is off a long layoff in a lower level race and I don't want a short priced favorite here. My price horse would be the 7 OH NEWMAN for Mike Puype. Maybe he can re-gain some turf form under Puype's care and sit a nice stalking trip as this race does smell of one that could deliver a bomb.

GRADE B BETS:

RACE 1: WIN/PLACE 4 - EDITORE
             EXACTA BOX: 1,4

RACE 2: WIN 1 - PICTURE TUBE

RACE 4: WIN 5 - KENDA

RACE 7: WIN 3 - NOTED AND QUOTED

RACE 8: WIN 5 - UNUSUAL FLEET
             WIN/PLACE(small) 7 - OH NEWMAN

GL TO ALL!
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Knicks950 1
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created a topic BELMONT?/SANTA ANITA PLAYS 5/13
in Horse Racing
Belmont is going to be a total slopfest and I hate taking the time to handicap in advance to just be disappointed with scratches and changes. 

If the prices are halfway decent, I do think TIMELINE should win the Peter Pan, as I've been a huge fan of this horse since his debut and will be following closely moving forward as I feel he has some big time talent. I also like BAR OF GOLD in the Ruffian race 10, as Kimmel scratched from what would have been a cinch win last weekend in the slop to enter here. This horse just glides over the slop and makes everyone else look like they're standing still, statebred or not (I know that's the knock on him).

Below are my early Santa Anita plays. I will post any plays for races 6-9 later on if I have any.

GL to All!

Santa Anita

RACE 2: 5 - OMEGA MOON. Curious to see what kind of price he ends up being by post time given we're talking about a 500k Juddmonte Baffert firster by Malibu Moon. What stands out to me about this one is the lack of speed in the field. I safely assume Baffert intends on sending Garcia to the lead, and if this one is ready to fire first out which the workouts indicate he is, I'm not seeing the pace to wear him down. It looks like the main threat is the Baltas horse who has run two game efforts against some real quality competition, and a firster is really gonna have to put up a big figure to win. The other ml choice is the Pete Miller firster Captain Chaos (love the name), who should be used defensively in sequences, but the pedigree makes me question whether a first out dirt sprint win is in the cards. He should clearly be the third choice, and if you find a reason to like him, he should be a nice overlay price from that short ml. Baffert usually gives an honest account of his runners to the media prior to running, so I will look to read into what he says about the horse before betting, but all signs point to a gate to wire win for another big time Baffert 3yo.

RACE 3: 7 - STORMY ROCIT. I admit AMERICAN PASTIME could be a real handful in here if improved at all, and he is working lights out. However, if the horse is that talented, this isn't the way to show it by entering in an OC40 and cutting to 5.5f. It seems a little odd to me, odd enough to try and beat him at what should be an odds on price. There is an abundance of rocket speed in here, and logic would tell you if trying to beat the 5, to take the other Hess entry that seems to be the only horse that likes to come off the pace outside of maybe the 3 or 4, who look to probably be a notch below the top contenders. Problem is he hasn't raced in over a year and I don't wanna trust that either. I'm gonna go with what seems to me as the speed of speed in the 7 STORMY ROCIT. I like his outside post, and when you look at the times of his last two 6f races, I think the half furlong cutback should suit very well. Peter Miller yet to win with this since taking over for Mark Casse, and this looks like a well meant, well placed spot. To me, this race belongs to the speed of speed that can clear, and that's the 7.

RACE 4: 4 - ARMS RUNNER. I have an affinity for horses with gigantic purchase prices on small stud fees early in their career, and that is the case with this Peter Miller horse. He was purchased for $525k on a $2,500 stud fee which is pretty ridiculous. The reason I gravitate towards horses like this is because unlike big pedigree price tags where the offspring is "supposed to be" talented, horses like this go for huge money at the sales solely on their nature/look/ability/speed in the flesh in front of our eyes. And let's face it, that is a ton of money for the PROFESSIONALS of this sport to throw down. All that being said, his first start was impressive, breaking from the far outside post and pretty much only asking what was necessary to win the race. Miller has worked him three times since the Apr20 start which shows he came out of the race great and is eligible to improve with a start under his belt. That is the stand I'm taking in this race, but by no means is this an easy field, and after ARMS RUNNER as my top choice, I could make a case for many in here including the favorite 7 CISTRON, who came a game 3rd to Conquest Farenheight, who just ran a nice 4th in the American Turf at Churchill. If CISTRON translates his speed to the downhill, he is gonna be a real handful. Other contenders that should offer good value are two first turfers, BIG LEAGUE and WHAT'SONTHEAGENDA. And this isn't even including the 1 and 3 for D'amato and O'neill who have already won over the downhill. So for sequence play, outside of taking my stand with the 4, I could honestly make a case for the all button if you feel good in other spots.

RACE 5: 1 - AMERICAN ANTHEM. The thing I like most about this one is Mike Smith getting back on board for his only mount of the day. There are a lot of reasons to give up on this one after his last two starts showing absolutely nothing, and even in his last if you wanna give the excuse he got cooked in the duel, the others that were up front came 2nd and 3rd, where Anthem faded to second to last. I think this cutback should be just what the doctor ordered, and if he can rate a bit and stalk the early speed like in his career debut, this one should out class the field. My second choice would be the 2 KIMBEAR, who I also think should really appreciate this turnback to a sprint. Also, I like that Baffert once trained the main threat in here, and I always like picking a trainer who knows exactly what he has to beat. Only other thing I'll add is that if you're not a fan of American Anthem, toss him completely. I'd be very surprised if he ran underneath. I see him either winning or fading hard.

GRADE B PLAYS:

RACE 3: WIN - 7 - STORMY ROCIT
RACE 5: WIN - 1 - AMERICAN ANTHEM
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Knicks950 1
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created a topic BELMONT 5/12 races 6-9
in Horse Racing
Might have some Santa Anita picks later.

GL to All!

RACE 6: 6 - VINTAGE MATTERS. This looks like a two horse race to me. I'd be surprised if someone else besides the 6 or 7 won, and going with the 6 I wouldn't be the slightest surprised if the 7 INHERITTHEWIND runs great and beats me. My main reason for going with VINTAGE MATTERS is that to me, it just doesn't look like Casse has the 7 ready to fire huge today, which is what it will take to beat the 6. I don't like his works coming into this, the time or the spacing, and although he will clearly end up being the best horse in this race, I'm gonna bet that he isnt the best horse today. I'm gonna take a stand that this is a good race for the 7 to move forward with, whereas the 6 is surely going to be firing his best effort off this layoff with Johnny V coming back for Mike Dickinson. He doesn't have many horses in his barn, and I trust that he put alot of TLC into improving this one over the winter. Vintage Matters also had a very wide trip in his last and still needed an unlucky photo to lose. The price should be much better on the 6 as well.

RACE 7: 8 - CARBON DATA/12 - KARMA DELIGHT. This is a very salty open maiden field that has my close eye, as these are the types that develop into key races. After taking a good hard look at this field, I'm left with one word; CHAD. The guys a machine and I believe that one of his two will prove best. Carbon Data has been a little bit of a late bloomer but I really think he started to figure things out down the stretch of his last race, and despite being very tight on the rail for a second time starter he was still coming best of all late with clearly the most energy. Javy returns and he should sit a nice forwardly placed tactical spot.  He's worked very steady since and I think a big improvement is in store today. I don't see a ton of early speed, but a couple of the first turfers could show lick as well as the 6. The 12 KARMA DELIGHT, the other Chad Brown entry, is the first turfer that scares me the most if there happens to be a quick enough pace for the closers. This one has big time turf pedigree and was a 400k purchase. Looks like they tried to get him on turf first out, but wasn't able. Then a run on the inner and his last in Gulfstream he was totally sandwiched at the start and still made up some good ground against a nice field of dirt horses including a very talented Pletcher horse The Big Fundamental. If this thing gets some pace to run into and translates this ability to turf, he could be a handful. Need to rely on Joel getting in a good spot from that outside post before the first turn. Some other underneath horses for exotics are the 6 ANY QUESTIONS and the 9 IM THE CAPTAIN NOW, who both came out of probably the best race of the group against Yoshida at Keeneland. Also, if you see a fast pace, watch 10 BUSHMILL'S LEGEND and 4 BROOKLINE coming underneath late at a huge price.

RACE 9: 9 - PORTANDO. I see this horse potentially being much the best stepping on turf for the first time. With a lot of scratches bringing the field to 6, and Snake Oil Charlie is in here so really it's 5. PORTANDO looks to be in very sharp form, and this 7f distance seems to be ideal. He has plenty of turf sprint pedigree on the dam side, and I like the outside post for the forwardly placed horse that should be near the lead. For his competition, the 1 is facing tougher than in his last where he couldn't get the job done after leading as even money fav, but gets the blinkers off and was wide throughout in his last as well as being freshened first off the claim. Definitely an underneath choice and use defensively, but the fact he was claimed from Mike Maker who trains PORTANDO makes me feel confident he knows what he's up against. The 2 is tough to trust breaking clean, and maybe the extra distance will help but this isn't a Fairgrounds horse I want to back. The 3 couldn't even win his first turf effort where he had it all his way, and then got scorched against much better at Keeneland in last. Very capable, but not much confidence shown by Mott to drop for a tag. The 5 is tough to love going on turf when Chad Brown didn't like him there and now we're asking a dirt trainer in Rudy Rod to get the job done. All in all, if the 9 takes to the footing and retains his current form, I think he should be the winner.

GRADE A:
RACE 6:
WIN: 6 - VINTAGE MATTERS
TRIFECTA: 6/1,4,7,10/1,4,7,10
EXACTA(backup bet): 7/6

GRADE B:
RACE 7:
WIN: 8 - CARBON DATA
WIN/PLACE(smaller): 12 - KARMA DELIGHT
EXACTA BOX: 8,12
EXACTA: 8/2,6,9,10,12

RACE 9:
WIN: 9 - PORTANDO
EXACTA BOX: 1,9

SEQUENCES:
RACE 6 PICK 4:
6,7/8,12/1,2,3,5/1,3,9   $24
6/2,6,8,9,10,12/1,2,,3,5/1,3,9  $36

DOUBLE: 6/8,10,12
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Knicks950 1
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replied to BELMONT/SANTA ANITA 5/11
in Horse Racing
SANTA ANITA 5/11

RACE 1: 7 - PELLUCID. Outside post and second off effort with a clean trip should do the trick. I expect a much improved effort with a start under her belt with lasix and blinkers off. Her trip was disastrous in last. Probably an even money-ish price but where is the speed to challenge? and if a lack of speed whose running her down? Other top options if beating the favorite are 3 and 4.

RACE 2: 5 - SCATHING. In a junky race like this, I'll take the controlling speed. Seems to be better at a mile, and is probably the only horse in the race eligible to improve. Once again, a short price though.

RACE 5: 5 - AOTEAROA. D'amato is been scorching hot lately, particularly on turf. This is his first effort off the claim and the easiest spot he's seen in quite some time. Has worked plenty since for this return, and if anyone can get this one back in the winners circle its D'amato. Should sit a favorable stalking trip near the lead. My second choice would be the 1 Fueled by Bourbon, who gives a second shot at the downhill since the Spawr claim and adds blinkers for the first time. If the equipment change works wonders, this one could def be the winner. Tricky little race here.

RACE 7: 4 - NARDO. I think this one could have a nice tactical advantage here back with Puype and Prat. This is his preferred distance, and 2-3 at it career. If you toss the golden gate race, this one's numbers are competitive with this bunch. Just seems like the right angle to take Puype who is a very sneaky, timely trainer. I dont trust Jimmy Bouncer to wire at 6.5f. Street Fighter's last effort was impressive but I'm afraid it could be dressed up and I expect the world to be on him. The 3,5,7 are all off extended layoffs and are too tough to trust here. The 8 looks a cut below. The 6 has a cutback angle to go with and is an experienced winner, but he is 8, and it is a tougher bunch than his second place last out race. Like the sharp short works for the turnback, but maybe underneath is the better play.

RACE 8: 8 - JEREMY'S LEGACY. O'neill not having a great meet thus far but this one looks like with the blinkers on and eligibility to improve he could be much the best. He's simply been competitive facing much better and I like the idea to cut back to the downhill sprint and has a nice outside post to sit a stalking trip. LEVELER could loom a threat off the layoff for D'amato who is impossible to discount lately. STURDY ONE is also is sharp form and re-claimed by the Kruljac's and is difficult to ignore. At the end of the day although 1-15 I think the blinkers on is what the doctor ordered and the 8 should get there first. I dont see this being a really short price either. The top 4 contenders are all pretty close, and I expect a good chunk of the 5/2ml. 

Very chalky picks, but on a Thursday Santa Anita card with short fields lacking competition there really isn't any other way to go besides realized that there's a few potential winners and you just have to pick the right one (and deal with the fact they most of the time are gonna take the sharp late money).

GRADE B WAGERS:

RACE 1: WIN - 7 - PELLUCID (even money or better)

RACE 7: WIN/PLACE - 4 - NARDO

RACE 8: WIN - 8 - JEREMY'S LEGACY (3/2 or better)

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Knicks950 3
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replied to BELMONT/SANTA ANITA 5/11
in Horse Racing
race 6: 6 - TOGA CHALLENGER. This one looks to be a two horse race with Rudy and Pletcher, and I like the 6 better. I fear the Gulfstream race where Driven by Thunder looked effortless in his win was a little dressed up, and against Fla bred maidens. Where Toga Challenger had to shift to the outside from the rail and seemed unfocused down the stretch drifting about against winners. I can definitely see the blinkers helping a good deal as well as the outside post. The 2 scratching hurts a bit, but there still seems to be enough pace in here to run at, and the cutback to 6.5f should help. Also, I expect Driven by Thunder to take his fair share of tote support, so you should see close to if not all of the 2/1ml.

race 7: 4 - PIQUET. The favorite CATCH YOUR DREAMS might have found a weak enough field to beat off a 9 month layoff, and took a lot of support at 5/2 first out in Saratoga which is sign of ability considering her lousy pedigree. In a field like this I'd rather take a poke somewhere else while using the 5 defensively, and my choice is the first time starter PIQUET. I've noticed that Castellano very rarely takes first timer rides that arent super live, so I expect this one to run a competitive race. By no means is this a strong opinion, so tread carefully.

race 8: 6 - BIG ROCK. Seems like a 2 horse race with Loose on the Town, who put in a great performance at Keeneland off the layoff to wire the field convincingly with first time lasix. But I'd rather take BIG ROCK who was torched in a speed duel on a good turf, which hadn't produced those kind of times to my recollection all meet besides when playing very fast and firm. The Clement barn is going great right now, and although Lynch is great with these lightly raced horses, especially turf sprinters, I just feel that Big Rock has a bit more foundation to him and I'd rather trust him second off the winter break than trust Loose on the Town to repeat that effort.

Overall, I simply don't LOVE any races today, and nothing stands out to me as a Grade A wager. There is no chance I'll repeat my efforts today that I had yesterday, as many of my stronger leans came through and the ROI was very strong, especially if playing exotics and sequences. 

GRADE B BETS:
RACE 2: WIN/PLACE - 5 - RICHMOND STREET. 
             PLACE/SHOW - 6 - ST. LOUIE. 
             EXACTA: 5/2,4,6
RACE 6: WIN - 6 - TOGA CHALLENGER
RACE 8: WIN - 6 - BIG ROCK

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Knicks950 3
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