KyleBowler

53.5 is the lowest set total for a Miami game this year despite every game going over with 1 push. Maybe because Cal actually plays defense. All their games have gone under as well with 14 being the most points they’ve allowed in a game. I understand Cam Ward is capable of putting up points, but it seems their main focus this week is improving their lackluster tackling. The logical play here is the UNDER, however sports are rigged against logic so this game will sail over on the last drive of the game. 

Your thoughts?

New Mexico Lobos +14

Works well in the NFL. Not sure about college, but Hurricanes and Volunteers fall into this angle. 

@monkeebooger

 Thank you monkeebooger.

This weekend I may fade Fresno State, but I’ll start a new thread after I dig into this matchup some more. 

Yes. We always fade teams coming off a win where they kicked 5+ field goals. Vikings and Broncos fits this weird angle today. 

@wmi799

 This may have been 2022.

Teams off 30+ points blowout loss last year went 5-1 ATS the following game, with the one ATS loss happening on the last week of the season. 

If you’re not careful, you’re gonna lose me. 

Last year, teams that lost by 30+ went 5-1 ATS the following week. The 1 ATS loss happened week 18. Any takers on Carolina +6.5 vs the Chargers?

The SEC bottom dweller Vanderbilt Commodores exploded last week to a 55-0 win at home vs Alcorn State. Now they play a hapless Georgia State team on the road before playing at 9th rank Missouri. Huge letdown spot here for the Commodores. I’ll gladly take Georgia State +10.5, but wouldn’t be surprised if they won straight up!

YTD 0-0

A lot of love for the Titans in this forum. 

I think I have a good read on these games. 

Illinois -9.5

Illinois/Iowa Under 166.5

Iowa Team Total Under 79

UNC/Virginia Under 130

0-0 YTD

@THE_PRESIDENT

 Colts are home. 

@CanadaCup

 Thank you. Sharper minds prevail. 

The Colts in 2021 just needed to beat the lowly Jaguars Week 18, and they would clinch a playoff spot. They lost by double digits. Probably not the best example but you get my drift. Not expecting the Bills to lose here, but I’m leaning towards this game being much closer. Keep in mind it’s a Primetime Saturday night game, so the scriptwriters may want to fabricate some unexpected drama. 

Bills blew out the Jets then lost a heartbreaker to Philly; then back to back victories over two of the best in KC and Dallas with the most recent being a 21 point win.. Now on the road across the country vs a Chargers team that lost by 40+. Betting on teams off 40+ points blowout loss is an angle in itself as well as home primetime dogs.  

Also double digit road faves are 8-16-1 ATS in the past 3 seasons. 

Thoughts?

Nice play but since when has Detroit and Dallas dominated Thanksgiving? Detroit’s turkey day record is horrible and Dallas has only covered once in the last 13. 

Saints -3

The line is very telling don’t you think? The mediocre Saints are favorites on the road versus a rejuvenated Vikings team? “The public is on the Josh Dobbs train.” - Patrick Everson. Classic overreaction. Minnesota benefitted late against the Falcons with back to back turnovers. What do you guys think?

Pitt may cover but, “Jags as road faves suck?” They covered every game as a road fave this season. 

I loved this angle, but will throw it out my archives after New England failed back to back weeks after 30+ points losses.