kcblitzkrieg

why is this?  Is there something going on with the eggs supply right now?  

Donnie Juan will be on the Chiefs again this year 

"In last year's KC superbowl run they had more than a 4 point lead at half time in each of their 3 games.  

Since KC's last playoff loss in 2021 to the Bengals, the Chiefs have led at halftime by more than 4 points in every playoff game, going on 6 straight now currently.

This is "minus the Super Bowls" as they were down at half in both of the last 2 SBs and down or tied in all 4 SBs with Mahomes and Reid."

This is now 7 straight playoff games.... 

More fun with numbers....

Patrick Mahomes has trailed in 4th quarter in 9 playoff games.

He has come back to win 6 and forced OT in 2 others before losing.

He has a 132.2 rating with 5 TD passes and 1 TD run when down 1-8 points in 4th quarter or OT of playoff game, leading scores on 13 of 14 drives

Yes, exactly what I said when I wrote "he has always had absolutely horrible vision"  

Hunt > Pacheco is easy eye test.  

Those guys all have runners that do their betting / ticket cashing.  Come on now, you can't have a conspiracy by the entire NFL ownership, coaches, players, refs, etc. to fix games if the referees are out there placing their own bets.... 

Has anyone ever done one of these tests ??   Recently I stumbled upon this one https://www.politicalcompass.org/test and gave it a whirl.  

It takes a few minutes and is pretty straightforward.  You just have to be honest with yourself and remember no one is watching you so don't "cheat".  It would also help if you just do the test first then go back and read into methodology and ratings.  This "could" skew you if you are already pre-programming your "bias".  

I'd be interested to see how some of you guys rate out on this.  

I will be the first to share....

"Slightly left leaning, social libertarian" is how I was labeled.  I know, I know.....a far cry from the MAGA loving authoritarian fascist.  What a surprise.  

I scored -1.25 on the LEFT / RIGHT scale 

-4.1 on the Libertarian / Authoritarian scale  

Who's next ??  

@MRxKrazz

 Its not the injury, dude had nothing but a head full of steam, can't find the holes, can't let blocks develop, runs hard going no where!

@Midnight1

 Ha nice one!  Too bad you didn't get down on that play  

Go Chiefs!!  

@dubz4dummyz

@dubz4dummyz

 If you bet KC SU last 3 playoffs you would be 9-0

I haven't bet them every playoff game but I have every Super Bowl..... last loss on a KC playoff game for me was 2021 Buccs beatdown in the Super Bowl.  Seems like just yesterday lol.  You often forget the big wins but never forget the big losses.  Will be adding to my AFC lines with KC -1 / ML this time around 

Chiefs need to move Thuney back inside for this game and let DJ Humphries make the SB start.  Huge difference maker in KC's run game with him at G vs. LT.  They will need it inside, Philly interior greater > than Bills and they shut KC run game down in the 2H last night.  

@Crusher13

 Sean Payton's Broncos beat them twice except for that blocked FG...

lmao.... last I checked Special Teams were part of the game.....

I see the ever popular capping strategy of "yeah but if my aunt had a crank she'd be my uncle" is back in play 

Oh, and.... the Bills lost yesterday because the Chiefs scored more points than them 

@YELAWOLF

 I posted this info before the playoffs began.  You need to look at the PPG number nowadays as the 17 game season throws a wrench in it.  Even with counting a 17 game schedule though it still lost this year.  Only once since modern NFL realignments has a team scored more than 500 points and gone on to win the SB and that was the post Katrina 2009 NOLA Saints.  

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/sb-history---500-total-points-scored-103917202#post-132707125

@RayRayK

 Eagles are a better team than they were when they played KC in the SB and KC might not be as good.

Yes.  Write ups from 2 years ago Chiefs / Eagles can be copied & pasted.  I'll expand on this in later thread but simply put, Eagles run game is only aspect that is significantly better.  Defensively you could argue this team is better.  They are more balanced for sure but don't have the sacks / pressure rate of the 2022 team.  Pass defense is better. Fangio is a plus.  

Chiefs defense is about the same, offensively they are better talent wise but efficiency metric wise are not close to the 2022 team, which ranked #1 overall in offensive efficiency.  "playoff Mahomes" is the same, if not better version.  

Should be another great game.... 

"flip the switch"

Patrick Mahomes set season highs in dropback success rate (64.7%) and dropback EPA (+21.5) in the AFC Championship game win over the Bills.

His top three games by dropback EPA this season have all come over his last four games.

(courtesy nextgen stats) 

Last nights game was a 99th percentile game for Patrick Mahomes in terms of dropback success rate. There were only four games this entire season where a QB produced a successful play at a higher rate. It's the highest dropback success rate of Mahomes' entire career.  

Another fun fact: 

Patrick Mahomes dislocated his kneecap on a QB sneak in 2019. In the 5 years since, the Chiefs have called *THREE* designed QB runs.

•4th & 2 while trailing in OT of the Super Bowl

•4th & 1 last night

•The final touchdown run

Hurts looked just fine moving around in the pocket and running the ball.... weather was great, Philly's defense showed out while the Skins "ran out of gas" here in their 4th straight road game.  That angle continues to be undefeated, as are rookie QBs in the Conference title games now 0-6.  

Chiefs / Bills game was as expected, a great battle down to the end.  Of course, just like in past years, the difference is "playoff Mahomes" and KC's coaching edge.  First time KC scored 30 points all season.  Chiefs were 4/4 on their first 4 RZ attempts, finishing 4/6 and 2/3 in goal to goes.  Buffalo continued their elite RZ scoring ways going 3/3 but not enough opportunities in this game, Spags and the Championship defense made the difference when it mattered. 

First time Mahomes has ran for more than 1 TD in the playoffs.  First time KC converted a 2 pt try all season. 

Playoff games above 0.5 EPA/Play:

MAHOMES 7

Brady 3

Allen 3

Peyton 3

Warner 3

Wilson 3

Big Ben 2

Flacco 2

Brees 1

Rodgers 1

Rivers 1

"Playoff Mahomes" is nothing new to us, but people have short memories.....

@Dogjimbo

 Saquon MVP at +250 to +300 is better wager than Philly ML imho 

Philly is getting the early money.  KC -1 already out there at some shops....