MagixJohnson

Public money % has been consistently coming down all week - less than the public favorite the Jaguars were on TNF. Line vig swinging Ravens way heading into the game. I don't think this is a crazy public game.

@UnderdogKing

 Even weirder is that arguably the Cardinals best defensive player, Budda Baker, has been activated off IR and will play. CB Garrett Williams has been activated as well.

I don't like this spot for Arizona, but this line movement is odd. Perhaps the books are getting slammed by a bunch of Cardinals teaser legs and the line is move based on that, as suggested. 

Has something happened here? 

I'd have to say Lions -3. Strong chance they win outright and '3' get you a push in a fg game loss. I have the Lions as slightly better team overall than the Ravens on a neutral field (-1), so with home field adjustment, I think the line should be closer to -1 Ravens today. Current line has value for Lions. Let's see what happens.

@SabrinaSez

 Why is this game a letdown spot for the Lions?? I view it as the opposite. 30 years of futility and they finally have a chance to prove they are the cream of the NFC with a big win against a legitimate playoff contender on the road. Dan Campbell is a great motivator. Also, early but it's looking like Lions have a legitimate chance at earning the #1 seed and home field advantage in the NFC with a soft scehdule. Winning this game and keeping pace with Eagles/49ers in the W/L column is big.

I don't see this being a letdown spot at all. Lions will be very up for this game with something to prove. 

@MagixJohnson

 My apologies, Seahawks ML to cash

@vanzack

 Started off being a huge public DET play, but money has been filtering into Ravens throughout the week. Still a relatively large public play, but not to the extent Jacksonville was on TNF, who managed to cover... I see a very close game so DET teased up to 2 scores is probably the best option, as Baltimore has not beaten playoff caliber teams by double digits since 2022-2023 season. They tend to play to their competition and Jackson has propensity to make 1 or 2 big mistakes per game... I see close game either direction, and in that type of game, I'm not touching -3.

Personally, have 3 outstanding teasers with DET +11.5 and Arizona ML to cash

People looking at the Detroit injury report this week and fretting about losing Montgomery. But at 4.1 YPC and Baltimore strong middle DL, I don't see his absence as being too problematic. Ben Johnson is a FANTASTIC OC and I'm sure the gameplan will be to run on the edges anyway instead of up the middle. Getting Brian Branch back is huge (the guy is going to be a star) and Pascal who is Detroit's best run defender. Goff has plenty of weapons with Brown, Reynolds, Williams, LaPorta and Gibbs, and Detroit's defense is for real.... Detroit has a lot to prove this game in terms of stamping themselves as a legit SB contender and while early, positioning themselves as the #1 seed in the NFC with a softer schedule upcoming.

I like Detroit in this game... Could be one of those games where the score never gets past 1-possesion score in either direction. Phone booth game 

@begginerboy

 Then WTF would you even bring it up?? It was 2 weeks ago FFS!! It didn't even affect them this past week. Moronic.

@begginerboy

 Commanders could win, of course, as the difference between both teams is not that great. But did you bet on this game thinking Atlanta played in England last week?? SMH.

Unless is it a tremendously embarrassing and bad beat that is. Chicago game was borderline on this fact. 

@begginerboy

 I did. And Atlanta went to London 2 weeks ago not last week, as they were home to the Texans, so I'm not sure why you brought that up. I assume you didn't know this because it doesn't make sense. Also, getting humiliated is not generally a reason why I would bet for a particular team. It's often just a sign that said team is bad!

I question your Atlanta synopsis, because there's certainly no guarantee that this is a 'letdown' game spot. Just because a team has a division rival game next week does not mean the team is looking ahead. Atlanta is a fringe playoff contender, and wins against 'ok' teams - teams that can win on any given week - probably won't be overlooked. Furthermore, Desmond Ritter is just off his **clear** 'breakthrough' week as QB, throwing for 329 yards, rushing for another and looking very efficient. I'd be very cautious betting against Atlanta with a Commander team you never know will show up. If you recall, Ron Rivera benched at least 1 starting QB against the Bears last game because they were getting torched. Atlanta overall has a very solid defense on both levels.

I have no bet this game. Certainly not betting Commanders on the logic it's a 'letdown' game based on a division rival opponent game next Sunday. Just IMO.

Titans thesis, however, looks intriguing if they are flying in just 2 games before gameday.

I kind of like the under here. Definitely on a teaser to move the line up 'X' amount. I moved the line to 54 and 55 on a couple for extra return torque on each ticket. (-650). Just being safe though. This shouldn't go into the 50s.

Jets play more Cover-3 than just about anybody and have 2 shut down corner to blanket Smith and Brown. Eagles play extreme ball control game and tend to have long drives... Also, Eagles secondary performed nicely last game after being the weak link on the team. Jets won't be able to run which what opened up passing game and allowed them to score against the Broncos.

I agree with this. I'd add the Eagles are there also although they need to shore up the secondary. The Rams performance allayed these fears a little.

49er, Lions and Eagles are the class of the NFC, with 49ers being 1A.

A tier below: Cowboys,Seahawks

I'd say KC will be plenty motivated to prove THEY are the best defense in the NFL on Sunday night. Jets are a dumpster fire. 

I could see the Jets hanging and maybe backdoor cover. Honestly, I'd rather take the -8 as the number has come down

I don't think the Jets match up well with KC here. Jets have 2 shutdown corners but KC has a decentralized passing offense. Who is Sauce or Reed going to 'shut' down? If they tale Toney or Sky Moore, Mahomes will just go elsewhere. Jets play more cover-3 than just about any other team and they don't cover TEs well. So I think KC is going to have a big TOP advantage this game and basically do what Dallas did to the Jets in WEEK 2 with a methodical ball control offense. Mahomes is very mobile and escapes pressure well.

On the Jets offensive side, the problem with this offense isn't just Wilson. Besides Garrett Wilson who is legit, Wilson doesn't have any other weapons to throw to. Allan Lazard is WR2, and he's a slow possession receivers. Randall Cobb is WR3 and he's like 35 years old whos prime was a decade ago. Conklin is ok - not dynamic. Then you have Nathaniel Hackett calling plays, and we see what happened in Denver last year. Guy looked brillant only because he had Rodgers as QB in Green bay but we see what he is with avg/below avg qb.

Unless this is some sort of letdown game, I don't think this is a good spot for the Jets. A team in turmoil, with major QB/OC issues and a defense - particularly the secondary - geared towards shutting down big time receiving core. That's not KC 

@MagixJohnson

 Jets not known to be a good TE coverage team... and Wilson is just awful. The team is in a lot of turmoil right now and questions are surfacing for the first time (that I can tell) about Robert Saleh's leadership as HC. Much of it stemming from trying to convince everyone the horsecrap that is Zack Wilson was 'coming along' and they were happy with his progress. Never went out and got a good backup QB when Rodgers went down, although I guess the front office owns a lot of that.

Anyway, a team in deep flux where the defense is playing ridiculous minutes since the season started. I don't see the Jets getting itself together this week. Defense is good, but not great like purported preseason. Won't be able to stop KC from scoring 24+ (being generous), unless you think Wilson matches that.

My best lean right now is KC -9.5. I have them -3 in a teaser already, but thinking about taking the points straight up. 3 reasons...

- After a Week 1 whiff at home without Kelce, these look like last year's Chiefs again. Healthy team and dominating with Chris Jones back in the middle.

- Chiefs strengths negate Jets best strengths, which is obviously some of their defensive pieces. For example, Sauce Gardner is unquestionably an 'island' shutdown corner, but the Chiefs don't have a true WR1. Mahomes completes the ball to 10 different receivers each game, and most any of those can lead the team in receptions. Not a good matchup strength for Gardner when there's no WR1 who carries the load for the opposing team. Same goes for CB2 Reed... Another example: Mahomes mobility and ability to throw well on the run negates the inside line pressure of Quinnen Williams. 

- Not a letdown game candidate. KC Chiefs are very consistent and not prone to 'letdown' games, like, say, the Dallas Cowboys. 2 games non division road trip taking care of business type trip.