malibusurfer

Thursday Turkey:

Raiders +14          7   Units

MNF :

New England +3     20 Units

First I want to say that I realize this will be a public pounder but as you know the public can be the right side on any given week obviously.

Colts -1 or +1 whatever line you get up to -10 I would hammer

Baltimores offensive line and Joe Flacco has not been in sync the past couple of weeks and Joe has now had two consecutive games that he has had pressure in his face by sub par pass rushing teams in Cinci and Cleveland. I do not see things getting better this week with Indys pass rush coming at Joe Flacco (I believe its finally catching up to the Ravens their lack of options at WR they decided not to pick up a named speedy reciever and now they are stuck with a veteran in mason who is about to retire and a butterfinger in Mark Clayton). I feel sorry for Joe Flacco because I believe he is a really good QB he just usually has nowhere to throw the football. Their TE Todd Heap is banged up this week this well as his back injury has been reaggrivated.

Now lets look at the biggest problem for Baltimore especially when they play the Colts. The Ravens secondary has struggled against any QB that is able to throw the ball down the field and this week they get Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne the Ravens CBs Foxworth/Washington cannot cover anyone without causing a defensive pass interference. The Ravens will get Ngata back but weather he will be at 100% we dont really know. Terrell Suggs is out for maybe the remainder of the season and this is a huge blow to the Ravens defense. (I bet Peyton Manning breathed a sigh of relief as soon as he found out about his MCL tear)

Finally I have watched Peyton Manning read Baltimore Defense like a book over the past few years and this is when we actually had a schemer like Rex Ryan behind the wheel. This year the Ravens defense is not the same without him and our Blitzing has been basically non existant against decent offensive lines. Manning will drive down the field and convert 3rd and whatevers to Dallas Clark at will all day.

I only see two possibiltys of how the Ravens stay in this game one is because the Colts basically come and intentionally give the game away to Baltimore because they dont feel like keeping a perfect record (LOL dont see this happening) or maybe more likely but I still dont see it happening is Ray Rice absolutly has a monster day and runs the distance of the entire field 2 or 3 times.

I really hate to bet against my team but I feel like I have been here too many times and I know how this will play out this week.

Good luck will add more thoughts later I just dont feel like writting more right now

Adding:

(Patriots -10.5 vs Jets),  The Patriots (6-3) coaching staff had a complete meltdown with 2 minutes left in the Sunday night game. The Pats gave that game away the easy way even tho they had intercepted Manning & scored several times off turnovers. The Patriots can be passed & run on. The Patriots are looking for revenge after being beat by the Jets in week 2 in New York. The Jets (4-5) started the season 3-0 but could not hold on to their winning ways. The Jets came off the bye week supposedly prepared to play the Jags but ended up losing by 2 points. Were the Jets looking ahead to the Patriots this coming week? I know Belichick will have his team prepared for battle, especially after being made to look like an idiot on every sports channel in america for the call he made vs the Colts towards the end of the game. Also, he is playing the Jets, an important divisional match-up & the revenge factor put in there for good measure should fire his team up but the fact is the Jets need this game just as much as the Patriots & they will come to play. If the Patriots win this game, it wont be by more than 7 points by I see an upset in the making. Betting edge: Jets +10.5, Jets in teasers & Jets ML.

(Bengals -9.5 at Raiders),  The Bengals are flying high at 7-2 after sweeping the Steelers in the series. The Bengals have also beaten the Ravens twice this season . What has gotten into this team? The Bengals are playing great ball, especially on the defensive side, something they knew little about years before. The Raiders (2-7) are just that, the Raiders! They came off the well rested bye & had every chance to beat the Chiefs but turnovers killed them. The Raiders have made a change in the Qb position for this coming week because Jamarcus is nothing but a turnover machine. The Bengals came off the bye week playing two physical games back to back vs their division rivals, the Ravens at home & then traveled to Pittsburgh for the  2nd physical game, both resulting in wins. Now the Bengals have to travel out west to Oakland & their supposed to be up for this game? No way, I dont see it! The Bengals are 1-7 SU past 10 years when traveling out west & I see them going thru the motions & coming up with a 3 point win. The Bengals have the Browns next week at home & Oakland is playing on Thanksgiving day at Dallas. (Betting edge: Raiders +9.5), if you wait, you may get 10 but you wont need that many points as I see a very tight game!