mollydog

Andrew981711, Vondokken and PTBradford, kudos to each of you. Consistent throughout, but that’s the way you finish. Each of you got on a seriously roll late to place in the money.

Congratulations!!! 

Gang,

As stated, Covers has pivoted the leaderboard displayed to reflect the playoff contest. All the conference Tournaments, some began a couple weeks ago, automatically rolled to everyone's playoff contest record. Many may not have noticed this because Covers kept the regular season leaderboard as the default until this past weekend.

Congrats to XTC310XTC, Greencapper, Judge Smails (great name), Reeker12 and Webba for a remarkably successful regular season. The fact that XTC310XTC and Reeker12 are the top 2 cappers on this site for all sports combined, I feel quite fortunate to be in this elite company. Webba, the GOAT, continues his mastery. Enough said (dropped the mic).  

Best of luck to everyone in the playoffs/tournament

Mollydog

Mctrap,

Watching the line updates yesterday afternoon 3/8, there was about a 2 hour window from 230-430pm EST where all point spreads went to 0, game totals remained correct. I actually missed the NC State/Clemson 430 tip because it didn't seem right to hop on an error this extensive (totaled about 50 game spreads over yesterday and today until it was corrected). In all, by checking the consensus picks when they made the corrections, well over 100 players loaded up on the favorites in that time span/window. Figured the Covers team would void the +0s, because it may effect the playoffs leaderboard, but that doesn't seem to be the case. 

Pakingfish,

You are mostly correct. I watch the early line movements and typically lean where the smart money is taking it. They know a hell of a lot more than I ever will. Siding with the wise guys is typical for me, but not always the case. I played several teams/totals minutes ago where I disagreed with the line movers. I take them later in the day, allowing the lines to drift into my favor (example: High Point +7) which opened at +5.5 this morning. I simply waited it out to max the line advantage. As you can see by my years of negative units, it hasn't fared me well (LOL), but the last two years in NCAAB have been the exception. 

JoeBatters,

Thanks for the mention and great job killing it in the NFL contest this year (13th overall). You've had several solid successful seasons in a very challenging sport to 'cap. You got this thing in '22.  

XTC310XTC

"We're not worthy, We're not worthy"..  I appreciate the post. Between your top overall finish in all sports combined last season and you're run at repeating the same honor this year, you have set the bar unbelievably high. It hasn't gone unnoticed. Flat out impressive and ridiculous results. Congratulations and best of luck moving forward. 

Mollydog

Gang,

Anyone who mentioned following me and that I have hopefully helped on this years run, apologies for going absolutely ice cold over the last couple weeks. There is a reason I have never finished a full season here positive (all sports combined). I'm working on it. Honestly, thats why they call it gambling. The system and the juice sets you up to lose over time and I've fallen prey time and time again.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I am the furthest thing from a "computer programmer" or "hacker". My wife got a kick out of that thought though, since I am only dangerous enough to effectively power my Apple Mac on and off. I am a big sports fan with a degree in statistics. So, having a pretty good feel for the numbers comes naturally. Now, with that said, that and $2 gets me a large cup of coffee at the corner cafe.

Seriously though, there are sites that update real-time line movements both globally and in the Vegas markets that I lean on heavily to be proactive and not reactive to the numbers. Allowing you to see the trends and movement real time everywhere. It's tedious, but I am committed to giving this a gentlemen's try while sitting here working through the pandemic. Targeting to get a solid line majority of the time on who your backing. That though, does not translate into wins. That just helps in a game that where the line comes down to the buzzer.  You still need to fall on the winning side. Hopefully, with a lot of luck, one of these years I just might finish with positive units (LOL). 

For those that win every year on Covers, which are a very select few on this site, (like Yisman and Webba) my hats off. They are more machine than men, and that is a compliment. I still do not know how they do it. I'm swinging with a David versus Goliath approach to compete. I am overwhelmed every Saturday as a 1 man show, trying to gather data and hit all the websites I use to compile my sides and totals. Don't think I've finished a Saturday positive all season yet.

Im not one to give out pregame picks, but lets follow a couple I personally like so I can share how I get the line to typically work for me. I like the under in Southern Illinois tonight (NCAAB). Opened overnight at 122 all night, went to 123/123.5 offshore an hour ago. I like the under in the Brown game, opened at 147.5 and instantly got bumped up to 149, now pushing 150. I didn't select either, but I will. Both delayed picks for me. Let the lines move in the opposite direction. There are other selections I grab in the morning when they begin moving offshore. When the Vegas market action picks up, between 8-930 am EST, the lines align with the smart player money. I'm typically on those early moves if I agree with their action. Timing and luck have been the only recipe I've had a glimmer of success with to stay close to the Webba's of the world (Finished Top 5 in 6 of the last 12 years in the NCAAB Covers contest). 

Don't need to ramble on, got games to pick and things to do. Just wish everyone in the thread here the best of luck and success.

Mollydog

EzMoney777,

Picks, Consensus Picks, League Money Leaders. From there you can choose your user and it will show history. You can even break it down by sport if you wish. 

To your point, and in my post on the 11th, there are some serious experts on this site. Yisman, Webba and TMarsh21 all have amazing results year in and year out. Love to know what they do and how they continually find success. They make it look easy, where I have worked my tail off to threaten in a specific sport on a rare season that I get on a roll in. That said, I hope to keep the recent momentum I’ve found in hoops this season (finished 6th in WNBA, still picking in the NBA and NCAAB). I’ve lost my shirt over the last week, but am committed to seeing this season through while I have still have some time to focus on it and figure it out. Plus, with XTC310 and Webba in the top 5, no lead is safe IMO. 

LouieDaLip,

I begin breaking down the lines the moment they are released. If the smart money begins moving the number, it’s a quick play or we wait it out to go against the public. Today alone I waited on a handful of plays until late in the day, allowing the lines to max in my favor. Rhode Island +1 and Kansas St +14 are two we waited on to have the line swing several points in our favor. I’ve had a boatload of misses as well. In the Top 5 tonight, I have the absolute worst number on Michigan St. 

It’s a lot of work with the quest for a lot of luck. Fingers crossed I can continue and end the year positive in units. That would be a first.

Mollydog

OLL5,

Congratulations on the Survivor success in June. Well done. I hope you get things straightened out on the prize end of things. Last year I contacted the "contact Us"# and Colin was awesome in assisting with a prize. Good luck.

MP2056 and EZMoney77,

Appreciate the posts and wish you both the best of luck. MP, I've been blessed to work in sales for a solid company for nearly 30 years. I typically travel, but the pandemic has me working currently from home. This change, albeit temporary, has allowed me to focus on finding some success here. On a great run, but mind you, it's been done before. Webba finished +100k in the NCAAB 2018 season contest. I can only hope to keep the recent momentum, push that record and help a few players along the way.   

Mollydog

MP2056,

Appreciate the kind words. I'm anything but an insider though (LOL). If you look at the 10+ years on the site, I'd go broke 50 times over. I've just been fortunate to recently work from home over the pandemic period and commit some time into finding some luck and successes. I watched this sites leaders a long time (Webba, Yisman, TMarsh21), who are far more successfully year in and year out then I'll ever be. With that said, I have committed myself to get in front of line moves and have them work for me. That is not always the case, tonight alone, I have several plays I missed before they jumped or dipped. In addition, if I don't like a team everyone is backing (USC versus Stanford tonight), I wait out the line moves until they max out and try to nab the line at it's peak (Stanford opened +4, I waited until it hit +6.5 to play them). Yes, I have too much free time.

Anyway, as I stated in my earlier post, if I can help one player out with a win or two, I've done something good. I wish you success in a field/hobby setup to have you lose. 

Tvigilante2020/gang,

Want to take a minute and thank you for the kudos and the write up.

KempDunkLister/McTrap, I appreciate the specific details in reviewing the numbers and results.

I know there are professionals, experts, casual and beginning players on this site. Several names of those, with a history success, are mentioned in this thread. In a field/hobby constructed to benefit the house (odds are in their favor), I hope my efforts help someone make some $$$ and appreciate it. 

Happy New Year and best of luck..

Mollydog

Congratulations Soun, one heck of a run...... 

Congrats Lionsfan24.. Awesome run, well done..... 

Jon Rahm

Justin Thomas

Dustin Johnson

Jordan Spieth

-12

GL all,  Mollydog

Good Luck all...

Round 1:

Virginia, Creighton, Purdue, Villanova, Kansas, Texas, West Virginia and Ohio State

TEP aka "Biff",

Thats Classic!! Let me know if you renew your subscription and would like to adopt a family of 4.

GL 2 all,

MDOG 

I saw that "can't miss" Super Bowl formula before as well. I believe it was in the Sports Almanac  in "Back to the Future 2"!

I think Bifff had it last. I'm looking for it too.

GL Vegasjimmy!

MDOG

All over Cleveland with you for the same situational spot tonight..

BOL

Mollydog

BOL Bets,

Keep up the great analysis and picks.

Denver is my LOCK of the season thus far!!!

Vegas will put up another casino with all the public money lost on the jets today!! ML +175!!

Mollydog

Bets,

You have been nothing but class. Thanks for your insight and a great run.

About 90% of bettors lose and man, can they be sore bitch ass babies! What a shame there is garbage like this in the forum, but in life you get the good, the bad, and the ugly.. (remember only 1/3 of what you get in life is good and you'll be ready for anything)..

Anyway, hope you post this week, don't waste your breath on these losers jealousy, best of luck my friend..

MOLLYDOG

Good Luck 2Night Bets. GMen are my lock as well this week.

Keep up the good work..

MDOG