norsemann

3’* Indy/Bills under 34

Somewhat surprised at how low this total is.  And I’m even more surprised that the money is going on the under (33 at most books).  Why should I be surprised when I am playing – or played – the under when it was at 34?  Because for starters, I win mainly by going the opposite of everyone else and second after the Bills had 42 points posted on them by the Skins – and scored 17 themselves – I really figured the books would have this near the Pats/Falcons number.   We got one coach, Caldwell, in his second year but seems to coach exactly like his predecessor and that is that with Manning at QB this offense is a well-oiled machine.  They need to break-in new players and shake off rust, but no injures is the name of the game.

Gailey is in his first year obviously with Buffalo but like all new coaches this year, he is a retread and not a NFL virgin.  He’s got a lot on his plate like most new coaches.  He has to gauge talent, instill his systems and if it is a losing team like Buffalo, get them feeling like it is to win.  Each coach and situation is different but by God Detroit celebrated after their 1point win in last year’s pre-season opener.

But the total is what it is and I got at 34.  Now why Im on the under:  Yes, the Bills lost last week 17-42 at Washington.  Since 1990, teams that have gave up 40 or more points, and then played their next pre-season game at home the under is 12-3.  The reasoning is simple.  Usually the books anticipate the public to jump on the next game being over; especially when Indy gave up 37 points themselves (like Buffalo, they scored 17).  And the coach(s) focus on fixing the issues.

I hate to think that this opening number of 34 after both teams each gave more than that up last week is an indication that the book’s are getting sharper.  And the fact that the public has bet it down a point further at most book’s  when the masses usually shy away from unders –especially this low - might show that only really, really sharp players see value in pre-season investing and are chiseling away the value that the pre-season gave in building bankroll is even more troubling.

This normally would be an ideal spot for a contrarian play… For once, I hope the public is right.  The thought that someone is half tanked staggering through a Vegas casino now, wanders into the sports book and says “33 points in a Colts game?!  $300 on the over!”   And cashing, makes me sick.

I do of course think the under is THE play.  My concern is the 4^th quarter and garbage points.  That is why I was expecting a total more like the next game.

3* Pats/Falcons under 37

2* Atlanta -2’

The action has been pretty even on this one.  I like the under here for a couple reasons.  Both teams will be protecting their QBs and starters in Week 2 in regards to playing time.  Week 3 we usually see the 1^st teamers going a full-half – sometimes more.  Next, Atlanta had a solid defense at the start of last year before injuries and some chinks in the D-backfield took its toll.  This year, they are currently healthy and they made some upgrades in FA and the draft.  Their showing last week was no fluke and KC got their only TD in garbage time (always a concern in pre-season, I admit)but 37 I think gives us some padding.

Also, under Coach Smith, the under is 4-1 when Atlanta plays a pre-season home game.  The Pats, under Coach Bill, is 21ov – 31un. 

As far as the side: I have a 2* play on Atlanta at -2’.  The Falcons are 3-2 ATS in pre-season at home and 7-2 ATS over-all under Coach Smith.  The Pats are good away dogs so I will keep the play small.

Thanks and Good Investing!

One edit:  Under the Hou/Az under play that should read "We also have a non-conference Away Fave SYSTEM that has seen the under come in over two-thirds of the time."  Not that Houston's away games gone under.  Sorry for any confusion.

Along those lines.  The Texans under Kubiak are 7-1 ATS on the road.  Unfortunately they are also 1-7 as faves, so I've passed on that.

Again, Good Investing to All

5* Cleveland/GB under 34

These two teams kicked-off their '09 pre-season campaign against each other.  The Pack won 17-0.  The under is 8-1 in the 1st game of the pre-season for the Packers (including last year vs the Browns).  Granted after game 1, The pre-season Pack has cashed the Over 75% of their pre-season games.  There's a good reason for the under coming in on Week 1.  Cuts have to be made, so the lesser talent gets more play time as they battle for a job.  The under is the solid play.

2* Hou/Az under 33'

Similar situation from above apply's here but these teams have been known to cash a majority of overs in pre-season - just not in Week 1.  We also have a non-conference Away Fave that has seen the under come in over two-thirds of the time.  Not as much value as we're getting in Cleve/GB, but enough for a small play.

2* Minnesota +3 -120

Public is jumping all over St Louis tonight as they factor that the starters - including the young QB getting a lot of reps.  Still, top to bottom, Minny is a much better team with more depth.  Both teams went 3-1 in pre-season last year but the Vikes are 6-2 on the road under Childress.  Have to buy the half point and back the much better team.

2* Chicago Bears +3

3* CHI/S.D. OVER 33'

Have plays on both the side and total here.  Believe it or not the last 5 Chicago pre-season openers have gone over the total.  San Diego has some roster moves and the game plan of both coaches working the talent gives us some good value on a contrarian play here and take the over.  As far as the side play, The Bears are 5-3 ATS on the road in pre-season.  Under Turner, the Chargers are 5-10 ATS as home faves.  Bears pus the points and the over are the two plays.

Went 2-0 last night; winning our 4 star Jag play and 3-star Atlanta play.  Currently, 3-1 +8.8 units in the pre-season. 

Thanks and Good Investing

Hey Kine.  Any dogs you leaning towards tonight?  Thx for all the hard-work.

Usually hate to post plays - seems to jynx them.  But others have offered winners to me so here are my NHL Totals for Sunday for anyone who cares.  No time for write-up as hoops tip-off is about to start.

2* Det/Chi OVER 5'

4* Bos/Pitt OVER 5'

3* Cal/Minn under 5

5* Car/Atl OVER 6

2* Tor/Phil under 5'

Thanks and Good Luck to all today in all sports!