oilerhoops1420

Record: 4-10
$$: -6.8u

Awful start.  I might be fade work only but I really love one play tonight.  I've taken off a few days to try and get a better feel.  Early season is tough but I can't find it at all right now.  It happens and I know if I stay the course I'll be around 50-60%  by year end hoping to be on the high end.  Just how it goes.  Looking to start a winning streak of profitable days tonight and get it started with a big play..

Locked in:
Florida St -3.5 5u - This is a big play for me and I would probably have continued to watch had this line not posted.  Tough, tough spot for Tubby's Gophers here and while I like this Minnesota team a lot, going into Tallahasse on a Tuesday night after a bunch of games and travel the last few weeks doesn't bode well. 3 games the past 5 days against top tier comp (Stanford, Memphis and Duke). Florida St. has stabilized well after the first game debacle vs. S. Alabama.  They beat a good St. Joe team and a decent BYU team on a neutral floor. I'm looking for Florida St.'s defense to create their offense.  In the half court, Sota is tough to score on 35% OPP FG.  However, they've shown they are vulnerable to athletic teams who pressure and then run out of that pressure (see Duke result).  Snaer is a good perimeter scoring threat and I look for him to get some open looks in transition.  Florida St. can match them on the boards which has been key to Sota's early success getting 12 ORB a game.  More than anything, this is a spot play backing a strong defensive team vs a road weary team which is an angle I'll hammer every time.

NC State +6.6 1u - I like the Pack to keep this close.   Two solid teams, where Michigan has gotten better results and has looked very good.  They have one of the most dynamic back courts in the country with Hardaway and Burke and with newcomer Robinson on the inside to pair with Morgan and a few other talented frosh, this Michigan team is very good.  I actually like Michigan in FUTURE's bet to win big 10 at decent odds.  However, NC State can match up athletically and I think the versatility of the interior players will give Michigan trouble. Howell and Leslie are top notch forwards who can play inside-out.  Brown is a proven scorer who can set up the offense and Wood is a key role player.  Michigan success usually comes out of the precision they get offensively through running the Princeton offense.  They shoot a bunch of 3's.  NC State defends the 3 fairly well at 30% OPP.  I think this will be a back and forth game with each team making a run.  I think in the end, it will come down to the last few possessions so I'll take the chalk.

Leans:
IU- 9.5
Maryland +4 

 

Record: 4-8
$$: -4.3 units

Off to a bad start.  A few bad beats (eg. Gtown yesterday) and some just flat bad calls.  Gotta keep it 100 though, and post the good and bad.  Looking for a little heat.  BOL!

I'm looking for better #'s so nothing locked in yet.

Leans:
Iowa +3.5
Butler +2.5
Michigan -3
NDSU -6
KState -8.5

Record 2-4

Good luck today bro.

Adding:

IU/Georgia O134.5 1u- IU playing at a fast tempo and Georgia will oblige to play quickly.  This # is low b/c Georgia can't score and I get that but I see IU definitely scoring in the mid 70's in this one so I'll take my chances that Georgia can get their average which is around 60..

I like G'town in this one with the points.  Hopefully Porter plays.

Good luck Nos.  I like the aggies too.

First post of the season.  I've been laying back a bit and trying to watch as much as I can to get a good feel.  I've typically done well early season non-conference capping but we'll see.

Kansas -12 1u - Jayhawks showed some regression following the big match-up with Michigan St which was to be expected.  I expect them to bounce back tonight and I think they will overwhelm Wash St.

Georgetown +7 1u- I've not been impressed with UCLA.  They still seem undisciplined to me and I think G'town will get great shots if they run their Princeton offense effectively.  I do believe Otto Porter will play but even without I'll take the 7.

Texas A&M +2 1u- Finally, A&M has some perimeter players that can score.  I like their experience on the inside as well and I think St. Louis is a fade until they get their best player back.

Duques -7 1u- This is more a fade of James Madison then anything else.  They are not a good team and Duques will play hard nosed defense and get better shots.

Marquette -4 1u- Better athletes on the smaller court in Maui, and Butler has not figured out how they will score yet and their typically stout defense is a step behind early in the year.  I hate to go against Brad Stevens b/c he's one of the best but Marquette similar to Xavier, will have too many athletes.

see a lot of people on butler but I agree with you and would rather back marquette.  both teams will improve over the course of the year, but as of right now I think butler has more question marks in terms of scoring and their defense.  good luck.

Like the aggies.

best of luck this year.

First post of the NBA season.  I like to watch the first week of the season and get a feel for the teams.  These will be my first two posted picks.  Have a good feel going 3-0 the last two nights.  Hopefully it carries over.  BOL to everyone!

Thunder -2  - I've been looking at this game.  A couple things stand out here to me.  One, Chicago hasn't played anybody yet this year.  Yes, they will come with energy as it's a televised game in the middle of a home stand but energy doesn't always equal wins and covers (captain obvious I know).  Secondly, you can cap OKC easiest by just looking at their trend for turnovers and assists.  When their assists are down, the ball is sticking and while they have good 1 on 1 players, they tend to play close games or lose.  Subsequently, their turnovers go way up.  Thibs teams feast on turnovers even without D. Rose.  Westbrook got killed by the media and coaches after his last televised performance against the spurs where he hogged the ball and took terrible shots.  Last game he came out and was moving the ball, had 8 assists.  Tonight, look for a good game from him and a fresh Durant.  Plus, OKC has the bigs to contend with Noah and Boozer which for the bulls they HAVE to generate offense or else they can't stay in this game.

Vegas is vegas for a reason and this short line will draw a lot of OKC action but I think OKC is the play.  Last thing I look at is the individual match ups that will be there in the 1st and 4th quarters.  Westbrook vs. Heinrich is a big MM.  Sefalosha and Durants size create other mismatches on the perimeter and as I said, Perkins and Ibaka can stay with Boozer and Noah.

Blazers +2 - Great trend here with Clips on the 2nd game of a back to back.  Played a televised game last night against Spurs and played well with tons of energy and got the win as an underdog.  Underdog winners going on the road for 2nd night of back to back do not have a good record ATS, and consider that the Rose Garden is one of the toughest places to play in the league.  5th game in 7 nights for Clips as well.  Blazers will have tons of energy and I expect them to limit turnovers and get good shots and hold on to make this $$.

I've been looking at this game.  A couple things stand out here to me.  One, Chicago hasn't played anybody yet this year.  Yes, they will come with energy as it's a televised game in the middle of a home stand but energy doesn't always equal wins and covers (captain obvious I know).  Secondly, you can cap OKC easiest by just looking at their trend for turnovers and assists.  When their assists are down, the ball is sticking and while they have good 1 on 1 players, they tend to play close games or lose.  Subsequenty, their turnovers go way up.  Thibs teams feast on turnovers even without D. Rose.  Westbrook got killed by the media and coaches after his last televised performance against the spurs where he hogged the ball and took terrible shots.  Last game he came out and was moving the ball, had 8 assists.  Tonight, look for a good game from him and a fresh Durant.  Plus, OKC has the bigs to contend with Noah and Boozer which for the bulls they HAVE to generate offense or else they can't stay in this game.

Vegas is vegas for a reason and this short line will draw a lot of OKC action but I think OKC is the play.  Last thing I look at is the individual match ups that will be there in the 1st and 4th quarters.  Westbrook vs. Heinrich is a big MM.  Sefalosha and Durants size create other mismatches on the perimeter and as I said, Perkins and Ibaka can stay with Boozer and Noah.

Best of luck.

Record: 18-16
$$: +3.3u

4-0 on Sunday.  Nice bounce back from a wobbly Saturday.  I'm starting to have a better feel now that there is more data and I've had a chance to watch more games.  Good luck.

One play today and it's a big one.

St. Johns -1.5 2.5u--> Biggest play of the year thus far.  Taking some profits from yesterday and rolling them into this play.  Look, I know this line stinks and it's Dickie V night in Detroit and there are whispers that Holman is back, but the bottom line is Detroit just does not play well together, they appear poorly coached and they are coming off back to back home conference losses, one to one of the worst teams in the league in Youngstown St.  Usually in scenarios like this, it's a no play but I can't pass up the value in taking a Big East school, albeit on the road, that has a far superior front line w/ God's Gift manning the paint and better coaching.  St. Johns is young, a bit undisciplined and have not demonstrated any consistency with their shooting.  Bottom line for them is, when they win they make shots (+50%) and when they lose they don't (<39%).  Detroit gives up better than 46% shooting to their opponents.  Detroit lacks a 3 point shooter and with Minnerath out and Holman yet to play, have zero post presence.  There is always risk with every bet, and Detroit could come out inspired at home and catch St. Johns flat on the road against a mid-major but I'm betting that St. Johns will be motivated following the ass whooping at Kentucky and with their being a bit of hype (Dickie V night), they come out and play their A ball which is more than good enough to cover 1.5 vs. this current version of Detroit bball.

I like the value here but know more than anything, that nothing is given or guaranteed and there is a reason this line is so short.  We shall see.  I'll be a square.

Record: 14-16

Adding:

Zags+3 2u--> I like the Zags enough here, even in the West to East coast travel spot with early start to bet 2 units.  I think the interior play of Gonzaga will be too much.  Couple that with how well they shoot it and I think they will have a chance to win.  I'm not sold on Illinois yet and they haven't faced solid competion.

Marquette +8 2u--> See write up above.

Hof -2 1u--> I like Hofstra on the home court. I think these two teams are similar enough that the home court is worth 3.

Tenn +1 1u--> Tenn plays much better at home.  Pitt is not the same type of Pitt team and  now with Trey Woodall they are without a proven point guard.  I like Tennessee to control the pace and play much better then they did on the road in a hostile environment at Oakland.  I continue to be a Cuonzo Martin fan and I think his guys will play hard and make enough shots to pull this out.

Penn +12.5 1u--> I jumped on the points here as Villanova is just not that impressive.  Penn has a proven legitimate scorer and I think their patience will wear on Nova who likes to play fast.

UCLA -1.5 1u--> I took a UCLA team that has not been impressive.  I'm just going to state the obvious, Josh Smith needs to sit his fat ass on the bench.  He plays no D and gives up a ton of offensive rebounds.  He can score in the post but that is the end.  Sheww...feel better about that rant.  Anyway, I'm just not sold that I young Texas squad can go on the road and win. Last game. albeit Pepperdine, the Bruins looked more like a Ben Howland coached team holding them under 40 pts.  I expect a good defensive effort with focus on holding down JoCovan Brown.  I like UCLA to own the boards and control tempo.

Record: 11-11