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Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27: Can they play a zone? I'm sure Andy Kennedy is smart enough to realize that they need to do it, but can they? That is what we have played predominantly the last two games. The zone has helped keep Buck out of foul trouble, and to be honest, this team is completely different when he is on the floor. I honestly think the team could survive without Warren, but not Buck. There is some depth in the backcourt, but not the frontcourt. Demarco Cox just isn't ready for the SEC, and Henry is solid, but is more of a slashing wing guy. I think you will see Gaskins and Nick Williams in Hopson's face all day, and he will get frustrated. Again, I think the difference here is two things: 1) TN has no one that can guard Terrence. 2) If Buck can stay out of foul trouble(and that's a big if), TN will have trouble getting in the lane. I think the Rebs will do everything they can to get the ball in the paint and get to the line. If you take away Buck's numbers, this team shoots almost 80% from the line. He, of course, is about a 40% shooter. Again, I can't stress to you how much this team has riding on this game. With early wins against some decent opponents in Penn St. and USM, they need two or three more signature wins to have any chance @ an at large bid, if that chance is even still a possibility. The week off has given them a full week to prepare, and I think AK will have them ready. |
GWarner27 | 62 |
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I think State wins outright today. Very big game for them as they get ready to go on the road. Here is a nice ML parlay for you if you are into that type of thing.
State +215 and Butler -140. 100/440 |
shirley-jester | 21 |
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Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27: I'll ignore the "obvious homer post" warning that went off in my head if you'll tell me why. I'd really love to hear it. Chris Warren is a major talent, but Melvin Goins can slow him down because Warren won't be a ton faster than everyone in this game like he usually is. Zach Graham is talented, but Hopson/Tatum should be able to guard him and if they fail I think we could see Tobias Harris, too. If I'm missing someone please let me know, of course Gaskins is good, but I don't think he can take over the game against a solid Tennessee defense. Please elaborate I certainly didn't mean it to be a smartass post. I respect your picks tremendously. That being said, I ASSURE you this isn't a homer post. I have played against Ole Miss 4 of the last 5 games. This is one the Rebs have been looking forward to. I talked to Chris and Reggie @ dinner tonight, and they are pumped. They know how big these next two games are at home against TN and UK. Win these two, and you get back in the hunt in the West with the schedule getting easier. Lose, and you're basically done. Ole Miss really matches up well with TN. They should have won there last year, and the type of game TN plays will play into Ole Miss' hands. It isn't Fraham, or Gaskins can take over the game. The deal is TN has no one to match up on Henry. Buck will hopefully stay out of foul trouble, because if he does, he will shut the lane down and make TN beat the Rebs from outside. Again, everything points to the Rebs tomorrow. They match up well, are ready to plaiy, and it should be a great crowd. |
GWarner27 | 62 |
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You're on the wrong side of the Ole Miss/TN game. Don't let the line fool you. This is a perfect matchup for Ole Miss tomorrow.
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GWarner27 | 62 |
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Terrence's GF just had their child. He will play tomorrow for the Rebs. I know the line looks fishy, but take the Rebs. They match up well, and will win this game by 6-8 points tomorrow.
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olemiss33 | 2 |
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I was all set to take the Rebs tomorrow. They are going to be ready to go, and know to have any chance @ al at large berth they need these next two @ home against TN and UK. The West is garbage this year, so if they can get these next two the schedule really softens up after that.
However, it is looking more and more likely that Terrence Henry won't play tomorrow. His girlfriend back home is due to have a child any minute, and Terrence will have to decide whether to stay and play or go back. He has become a vital part of the offense, averaging 12 points an 8 boards the last few weeks. He has really probably been the best all around player on the floor for us. We don't know for sure if he is playing tomorrow, but keep an eye on it. If he plays the Rebs will win and cover. If he doesn't play, TN will win the game by 6-7 points. |
olemiss33 | 2 |
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Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27: Thursday notes: miss st 2-4, uva 1-2, sparty 7-8, vcu 5-7, duke 11-14, asu 2-3, zona 6-7, nmsu 2-4, usf 9-11, ind 4-5 (& over), stan 2-4, cal 4-6, gonz 3-5 leans: Hofstra +9 Miss State +7 BC +17 NMSU -2 Oregon +8 locked in: Mississippi State +7 (-110) vs. Vanderbilt -Love Vandy as a team, but they are banged up and I don't think Ezeli has enough in the tank to guard Renardo Sidney right now. The home court cowbells will be in full force, and I think MSU is a buy team right now after a terrible start to the season. New Mexico State -2 (-110) vs. Boise State -NMSU is as healthy as they've been all year, it's a tough place to play and Boise is built with guards and has struggled/will struggle against talented bigs and NMSU has a few of them starting with Gillenwater. Im on Vandy tonight. I would play an over if my local offered it, too. For the first time in year's, Stansbury is breaking out the man defense tonight. That, IMO, is doomsday for them. Sidney may be the worst big man defender in the country, and State has no one to guard Jeffery. Ravern is a bad defender, and has been a very poor shooter from 3(under 20%) since conference play started. I agree it will be a tough atmosphere tonight, and Bost will have a big game on national TV. That being said, State doesn't play defense, and that is what will cost them tonight. I look for this game to finish somewhere around 80-68 in Vandy's favor. |
GWarner27 | 39 |
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Im playing a Ml parlay on Vandy, Ole Miss, and FSU. +308.
I also have a small ML parlay with the following: TN +220 Ole Miss -125 LBSU -120 +956 TN is a team that has been good at winning this type game this season, so I threw 100 on it, as I feel real good about the other two. If I get lucky with TN, it will be a good win. I |
swizzol | 36 |
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Swizz....just a suggestion here, but instead of paying that much juice on the ML, here is what I have with Vandy today. Two game teaser(and I don't play many teasers):
Vandy -1 FL State -3- I think Vandy wins, but St. Mary's is tough. I just don't think they have played in an atmosphere like they will today. Vandy runs a similar scheme, with better athletes. FL State is tough, especially at home. BC just isn't very good. I think this is a low scoring game, but FSU's athletes will just be too much. You could sub in UAB -1-, MD -2, or Denver +7 here, but I like the first two together, and the juice is much less. |
swizzol | 36 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KktdocT: GL. Agree here big time. Rebels needing a win, and seem to play better on the road where they have been very competitive @ Vandy and FL. The Rebels went defense, defense, defense, at practice the last few days, and LSU just doesn't have enough scorers. Malcolm White for LSU, who is transferred there a year ago after lying to the Ole Miss staff about where he was going, will want to have a big game. That is great news for Ole Miss. When he transferred, it was due to him wanting more touches. Problem was, he was a TO machine, and couldn't shoot. I look for him to take 12-15 shots today, and turn the ball over 4-5 times. In the end, I think the Rebs win this game 74-65. |
swizzol | 36 |
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CM, I got the Clips +2 in the 1Q, so Im going to make a pretty big play on it here. Im paying -115, but quarter lines are alwasy -115 with my guy, no matter which side you take.
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CMJohnson1 | 49 |
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Really surprised when I saw this line. I expected and opening number around 10, so laying on 5- seems like a gift. I think this is a case of the oddsmakers fading the SEC, being that the conference is garbage this year.
That being said, SMU is terrible, and Ole Miss knows they need every win if they plan on making a run at the tourney. We open conference play Saturday @ Florida, and this game is very important. Rebels -5- for 5U. This is my biggest play on Ole Miss this year. |
olemiss33 | 1 |
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Quote Originally Posted by justkeepwinning: I like the play bud. I took Southern Miss in the earlier game. Good matchup for both teams today in Cancun. Yeh, I felt all along the Southern game was going to get there, just not enough to bet it. Same with MS State today. . This game tonight is important to Ole Miss, though. They know with the West being as bad as it is this year, they need every win OOC. They already gave one away against Dayton, and they can't afford to let that happen again. They know they need to get to 23-24 wins, and they can do that with the weak ass West this year. Andy has them ready down there. CSU isn't terrible, this just isn't a good matchup for them. Two teams that play a similar game, but one has MUCH better players. Just a good spot for the Rebels, IMO. |
olemiss33 | 4 |
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As stated earlier this year, when there is an Ole Miss or MS State play I feel good about, I will let you know.
Tonight's matchup with CSU is one I think really favors the Rebels. These teams play a similar game, Ole Miss just has the better players. Chris Warren really didn't play well last night, but I don't look for that to happen two nights in a row. I talked to a coach this morning, and Buckner is fine, and will play tonight. Interestingly, the Rams top scorer(Ogide) was an Ole Miss signee, and played sparingly as a Frosh in Oxford. He, I would imagine, is a little amped for this game tonight. That being said, he will struggle at points tonight with Williams or Gaskins in his face all night. I look for this game to finish in the 87-74 range, so I like both the Rebs and the over, both as 3 unit plays tonight. I will also be playing a two team teaser with Ole Miss -1- and Georgetown --. This will also be a 3 unit play. So, I have three plays tonight for 9 units total. Ole Miss -5(bought hook) Ole Miss over 153 OM -1- with Georgetown -- All three unit plays. Good luck tonight. |
olemiss33 | 4 |
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Quote Originally Posted by olemiss33: Well, let's see if I can stay as good on the Rebels if I go public with my plays. Tomorrow, the Rebs are @ UALR for a 2pm tip. The Rebels have only been on the road once, and we were shellacked @ Miami. The final score isn't indicative of the game. We were down 30 in the first half, only to cut into the lead very late in the game. UALR has some athletes. They aren't great basketball players, but they are good athletes. This is alot like Miami, and I expect Ole Miss to struggle on the road tomorrow. The Rebs have a solid team this year, barring injury to Buckner or Warren. However, Buck has stayed banged up all year, and he is really the only rebounder on the team. UALR is off a few decent wins at home against Tulsa and LA Tech. Not great teams, but decent opponents. I was hoping for double digits, and that is what is keeping me from making this a bigger play. I am going to take UALR to cover the 8-, and the Rebs to win a close game on the road tomorrow. UALR +8- for 2 units My other two SEC plays are plays I really like: Simply, this. Bama is horrendous, and Providence isn't. I thought this line would open around 9-, so when I saw -5 I thought I was dreaming. Providence -5 for 4 units TN v Pitt is one of the marquee games tomorrow. Both teams are very good, and play a different style of ball. Should be interesting to see who can draw whom into their game. Usually, it is the team that runs, and I think that is what will happen tomorrow. TN will get Pitt into a game they don't want to play, and it will go back and forth until Pitt wins it at the line late in the game. TN +8 for 1 unit Good luck tailing or fading. Nice day for me picking up 3 units here, and anothe r on TN in the 2nd half @ +6-. I was wrong on my Rebels, but I will take the win. I had UALR in a 8 pt teaser that is going to be a winner with Dayton +19 and TN +16. That will add 1 more unit for a gain of 6 units today. |
olemiss33 | 2 |
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Quote Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw: One lean so far Seton Hall pk I talk about it if I make it a play. Cburk...the problem with dayton is shooting. Teams are giving them the jumpshot and Dayton is dying by it. They are playing horrible in a majority of their games. It makes me think how on earth did they beat Mississippi...and to think I even took them there. Dayton seems to get up for big games, and often come down to the level of opponent (at least this year evident in probably 3-4 games+). 10 pts is a lot...but if you look at ODU, they have been X and Richmond by about 8pts. They were losing to Richmond by 7 however fairly late. I normally would love Dayton here, but a team that cant shoot right now, playing against a team that is very good defensively scares me to bits. Ole Miss was the MUCH better team that night. We lost two of our top three post players with 18 minutes to go in the second half, were up 13, and outrebounding Dayton by 5. We ended up losing in OT for two reasons: From the 18 minute mark on, we were outrebounded 25-6, and we were 4-13 from the FT line during that time. If we played them again tomorrow, Ole Miss would win by 15-20. I was there. I sit about 2 feet from the court in Oxford, and it was amazing to watch us do everything in the world to let them back in the game that night. |
CrusCrnshw | 26 |
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Well, let's see if I can stay as good on the Rebels if I go public with my plays.
Tomorrow, the Rebs are @ UALR for a 2pm tip. The Rebels have only been on the road once, and we were shellacked @ Miami. The final score isn't indicative of the game. We were down 30 in the first half, only to cut into the lead very late in the game. UALR has some athletes. They aren't great basketball players, but they are good athletes. This is alot like Miami, and I expect Ole Miss to struggle on the road tomorrow. The Rebs have a solid team this year, barring injury to Buckner or Warren. However, Buck has stayed banged up all year, and he is really the only rebounder on the team. UALR is off a few decent wins at home against Tulsa and LA Tech. Not great teams, but decent opponents. I was hoping for double digits, and that is what is keeping me from making this a bigger play. I am going to take UALR to cover the 8-, and the Rebs to win a close game on the road tomorrow. UALR +8- for 2 units My other two SEC plays are plays I really like: Simply, this. Bama is horrendous, and Providence isn't. I thought this line would open around 9-, so when I saw -5 I thought I was dreaming. Providence -5 for 4 units TN v Pitt is one of the marquee games tomorrow. Both teams are very good, and play a different style of ball. Should be interesting to see who can draw whom into their game. Usually, it is the team that runs, and I think that is what will happen tomorrow. TN will get Pitt into a game they don't want to play, and it will go back and forth until Pitt wins it at the line late in the game. TN +8 for 1 unit Good luck tailing or fading. |
olemiss33 | 2 |
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Well, for starters, here goes:
Both of these plays will be 12/11 plays. MS State has been a DD home favorite four times this year. They are 0-4 against the number, losing one outright, and OT on another. Until Sidney and Bost return, this is simply a bad basketball team. I look for them to open as a 12-13 pt favorite againts ETSU on the 11th. I will play this at anything above 10. Ole Miss on the other hand, goes on the road for only the 2nd time against UALR. The first road trip was to Miami, and although the final score was only 13 point difference, Ole Miss was never in the game. UALR has some pretty good athletes, and I look for them to play hard and keep this game close. I am expecting a number here in the 10-12 range, and I will be taking UALR @ anything in DD's. |
accventures | 29 |
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Quote Originally Posted by accventures: Purdue- This is tooting anyone's horn but can you imagine how tough we'd be as a group if we had someone who knew each CBB team like you know Purdue, LuDawg knows ECU, I know the Terps, etc.? Is it BlakeJeff that does Temple also? Anyway, I had suggested during the start of the NCAA tournament a couple of years ago that we all focus on one conference and share info and perhaps we should look at all of that again because once you get very familar with a team, you do get a good feel for which way plays should go. I am 4-0 this year on Ole Miss plays, and 3-1 on MS State plays. Last year, I was 72% on Ole Miss plays, and 69% on MS State plays. Other than these two, I tail a few of you guys here. I don't know much about CBB, except for these two teams where I have coaches that are personal friends, and players on the Ole Miss team that I am close to. I usually have a good feel of the matchups, as well as the inner workings of the teams. Hopefully, I won't jinx myself with this, but I will post regarding these two going forward. |
accventures | 29 |
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Looks like I am going to finish +7.3 units for the day.....thats what I get for taking a stupid 4 game tease. I know better than that, but it just looked so pretty on paper:) Really close on the Butler game to making it a +15.3 unit day. I thought about a 5 point teaser there to get it to one(my book pushes a teaser on a win and tie), so I couldn't lose if Butler just won. For the record, a unit for me is $250. |
olemiss33 | 7 |
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