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Quote Originally Posted by Ryche:
If you win too often, or consistently over time, is there a point where an online sportsbooks (William-Hill/Caesars) will no longer take your action. I cannot confirm this, but I have heard of books dual-lining accounts. Dual-lining if you aren't familiar is giving different account types separate lines based on wagering behavior. But to answer the direct question, you would have to be winning hundreds of thousands of dollars probably before they would take notice with significant volume. |
Ryche | 11 |
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Enough with Quote Originally Posted by 666LES:
Quote Originally Posted by pburgh81: In a 4 team RR there are:6 2teamers4 3teamers1 4teamerUnless your bookie is shaving you like a Tourist,the order,the combination,the Fung Si,all are meaningless as to the payouts on each parlay.You are covered with every possible combination so I'll repeat: Am I a Thick A-Hole or are you an Idiot??Why is everything met with such hostility on here? The aggressive nature of the replies is totally unnecessary. Anyone that is replying with these types of replies clearly doesn't know how combinations work, which is totally fine, but people don't need to be a-holes about it either. I started playing RR's because the first 2 picks are the most important in that you get the most combinations when you hit the first two picks and sometimes three depending on how many teams you are playing. Typically I will hit 60-70% of my 4 or 5 picks for the day. Sometimes, I may like other games but with less confidence but will still fit my criteria in being a play. Up until about 2 months ago, my wagers would be submitted as I pick them in the order I picked them in. Do you get the picture yet? I had great succes because I had a high hit rate in the RR's because my most confident picks were my first 2-3 picks. Mathematically, again, when you take number combinations, more of those combinations involve the numbers 1 and 2 than others meaning more payouts. Now, they are being reordered randomly and I'm not seeing the type of profits I used to. Maybe this will clarify things... No I'm not an idiot! |
pburgh81 | 10 |
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Why is everything met with such hostility on here? The aggressive nature of the replies is totally unnecessary. Anyone that is replying with these types of replies clearly doesn't know how combinations work, which is totally fine, but people don't need to be a-holes about it either.
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pburgh81 | 10 |
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Hello Everyone, I need some opinions here. I am a round robin player. I've been noticing my wagers change after I submit. Anyone who plays round Robin's oniws that your picks should be in the order you place them in selection. For example, let's say I make a round robin selection of: PIT HOU CHI PHI Then after I officially submit the wager, it changes it to: CHI PHI PIT HOU Is this legally permitted to do? |
pburgh81 | 10 |
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Sorry about that! I meant UNDER. I'm consuming alot of information here. This is something I have been tweaking for almost 2 seasons now. Like I said, it's the close games I'm really trying to hone in on. |
pburgh81 | 3 |
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Maybe I am missing something here OP, but what is your theory? What are your calculations? I downloaded the spreadsheet and I don't see any notes. I totally respect what you are doing but my experience on this forum so far isn't that great. It seems to just be people posting picks with no explanation. I have tried to discuss theories numerous times with people on here and it seems if picks aren't posted, nobody replies. |
User882499 | 421 |
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Hello All, So I make my own lines and I was wondering what everyones opinion is regarding estimation and actual book line and what the wager would be. My final line is adjusted for at +/- 3 (home/road). MEM/CHA- Est= 220.67 Line= 218.5 PHI/ORL- Est= 197.78 Line= 208.50 Just to show you a close game and a wide difference. So for the MEM/CHA game the difference between my estimation and the actual line is 2.17. Logic would say take the UNDER, but its typically a 50/50 choice. I've taken the OVER and UNDER and usually see it either way. I base my pick off of the +/- 3. Then for the PHI/ORL game, my estimation has a 10.72 difference between to line so I would take the OVER. Technically, if it doesn't meet my +/- 3 rule, I should just fade it but the close games are what intrigue me the most. My estimations are typically very close to actual lines. Of course with the exception that there are always a few games where there is a 10 point swing between my estimation and the actual line. Thoughts? |
pburgh81 | 3 |
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Hello All, Question regarding Round Robin's. I know what they are and I play them quite frequently. But here the thing. This morning I placed a RR and went and looked at the combinations. They ALWAYS show up in sequential order like: 123456 13456 The RR I placed this morning was backwards: 98765 Has anyone ever seen this before and why is it now backwards? I have NEVER seen them like this. This is a 210 bet combination with the majority of the bets being placed backwards. Trying to figure out why it did it this way.
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pburgh81 | 1 |
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Hey All, Is there any team that burns you the most? Me for example, I always seem to get burned by the Yankees. For example, if I take the Yankees at + money, they always lose. If I take the Yankees as favorites, I never bet the ML because of the juice, so I usually take the ML combined with the O/U for the + money. For example, today I took the Yankees with an O/U of 9.5 @ +145. Final score, 7-2. 90% of the time, this is what happens. It either stays UNDER by a 1/2 or goes over by a 1/2. |
pburgh81 | 3 |
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Hello All, So after much venting, I will share what I am looking at as the struggles with MLB just continue. I analyze every sport much in the same way obviously with statistical difference. Game Example: STL/CHC Wacha is below average in ERA giving up 5.35 runs away. He is below average in WHIP of 1.43. He is below average in K/9 tossing 6.85 K's. He gives up 2.19 HR's which is also below average in BABIP @.312. These are all Away Splits. Mills is above average with an ERA giving up 3.42 runs. He is above average with a WHIP of 0.82. He is above average with a K/9 of 10.64. He gives up HR/9 0.82 which is above average and has an above average BABIP of .280. So just on pitching alone, CHC gets the nod. Now I will get into the Batting. STL is below average RBI @ 4.36, below average in OBP @ .321, and below average in R/9 @ 4.59. CHC is above average in RBI @5.05, above average in OBP @ .332 and above average in R/9 @ 5.27. CHC gets the nod in batting by a pretty significant margin. From a Bullpen standpoint, STL and CHC are both ranked above average in bullpen quality. So with ALL of that said, how in the world am I looking at a game with a score of 2-1 at the top of the ninth. STATISTICALLY CHC shouldn't be trailing. CHC should in fact be in the lead by at least 1 or 2 runs and this game should have been somewhat of a high scoring affair. This is just part of a long laundry list of game outcomes in MLB all season long with a high percentage of losses. This is a very common occurrence in MLB. If anyone picked STL or the O/U and took the UNDER, what was your motivation and can you back that pick by any sort of handicapping strategy? Please keep pick leeching and lucky guess or streak trends out of this conversation. I want handicappers to chime in with insight on what I could be missing. |
pburgh81 | 1 |
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Yanks and Under |
sportswagers | 4 |
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I'm talking totally DRY handicapping. No streaks, no trends, nothing gimmicky. Straight game handicapping. The core of baseball. Who's going to win, who's going to lose. Then run production to handicap O/Us which is what I primarily focus on. |
pburgh81 | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Jason316: OK!! Tell me how? Btw, what specific wager? ML's, F5's, O/U's...etc.?
MLB is the easiest sport followed by nhl |
pburgh81 | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by MIZARD:
I feel bad for you now, I'm sorry about calling you an idiot. take pirates ml right now live and thank me later... Nice pick on the Pirates! Everything that you said btw was completely out of line. It's a frustration vent post about a sport that is so wildly unpredictable. You can handicap MLB until your eyes bulge out of your head and it doesn't matter. Unnecessary comments. You dont know my financial situation or my bankroll situation. I find it hard to believe that you can come to any reasonable conclusion that I am wagering with money I cannot afford to lose. In closing, even if I was, it MOST CERTAINLY wouldn't be MLB that I would wager on. There is no consistent edge to be found in MLB. Mostly everything I read regarding "handicapping" MLB, isn't really handicapping at all. Its streaks and trends. I'm not sure if you handicap sports or not or whether you come here to leech picks, but go ahead and "dry" handicap an MLB game. You'll more than likely find out that 70-80% of the time, your results are going to look different than the actual outcome. The game is based on MASSIVE amounts of luck. Its unlike any other sport. I'm more than happy to share handicapping information with anyone on here to come up with anything of substance to find consistency in MLB which I have been searching for all season. I was successful in Thoroughbreds, have fantastic years in NBA, I do ok in NFL, but MLB seems near IMPOSSIBLE to find consistency correlation. Come with a post of substance next time!
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pburgh81 | 12 |
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Of course I have BOS U8.5, bases loaded the whole top of the 9th and one man has to walk to f**k me by a 1/2 run AGAIN! This sport is the WORST to wager on. If I would have bet the over 8.5, GUARANTEE the score would have stayed 5-3 with the bases loaded the whole 9th. |
pburgh81 | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by TreyInventor:
Baseball is the most brutal sport to gamble on You would be right! The only consistent thing you can count on in baseball is when everything points one way, the opposite happens, CONSISTENTLY. I have handicapped my eyeballs out this whole season and there isnt one consistent tendency. I really honestly do not understand how anyone other than being EXTREMELY LUCKY can say that they have found any consistent handicapping method. Take this Astros game tonight for example. How in the hell does Houston only have one run against a shit pitcher and a shit bullpen? Runners stranded almost every inning. It always seems to be the case. Theses teams seem to always light up opposing teams facing good pitchers and when the time comes facing bad pitchers and bad bullpens, they cant get anything going offensively.
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aaironworks | 17 |
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Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:
I totally agree.... No trend or anything... Just pure luck...Football seem to be way better... I have come to believe that. This is a sport I will definitely not partake in next season. I'm a handicapper at heart and love game analytics and for the amount of analytics that are available, you would think that it would be an easier puzzle to sort through and put together. The thing is too, I can accept losses. It's part of the game. But I'm clipping at around a 20% win rate in all metrics of MLB handicapping for the season. K props, O/U, spreads, first 5, moneylines, and nothing makes any sense. I'll take an "elite" pitcher against a dumpster fire hitting team and they blow balls. Then if my numbers show an "elite" hitting team against a bad pitcher and a shit bullpen, somehow the "elite" hitting team only manages to put up 1 or 2 runs in the entire contest. It's just an all around 3 ring circus that's so F'in frustrating. |
pburgh81 | 4 |
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How do people here ride the wave in MLB? I have never in my life spent so much time handicapping a sport and finding ZERO consistency. This sport is a sport where you need to wager OPPOSITE of what your handicapping result shows. I know I'm not the only one either. I have read countless MLB previews that are so far off and so wrong after the outcome. There is just so much inconsistency with EVERYTHING in MLB. |
pburgh81 | 4 |
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Quote Originally Posted by concavecapital:
Like I said In my thread yesterday I will be on cardinals first five RL and full game RL both at plus odds. Flaherty has a .5 ERA last five starts and is their #1. Offenses aren’t even close lately. Lyles and his 4.5 is laughable. There is NO getaway day since St. Louis has tomorrow OFF and is going home to host the dog sh!t reds on Friday. cards had no problem hitting the first two days against much better pitchers. but wait ... my team gets shutout again first five and are losing to Milwaukee? So this will be FIFTEEN losses in a row which is not easy to achieve. At what point does reality set in? I'm in the same boat man. I've been getting SLAUGHTERED in MLB this season. Of the series: Game 1 I took MIL & Ov, STL wins 12-2 Game 2 I took Mil & Ov, STL wins 6-3 Today I tool STL and WHAM, hit right in the face with MIL winning. This is such an inconsistent sport to bet on. This year will be my last with MLB. |
concavecapital | 14 |
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Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
I have been losing..badly...a 2 month streak ...similar to concavecapital and many others of you here...coincidence?...maybe, maybe not...but I posted this in his thread last night..."At some point radical ideas must be attempted......It is ..it must be...statistically impossible to lose at the rate you are describing...I believe you must consider some radical action...you must...pick your games just as you always do and then...Fade yourself...I know...this is very distasteful ...however...just look at the results...or rather, look at what the results would have been if you had been doing this for the last 3 months...The only BIG problem with this is maintaining your consistent, honest evaluation of your selections so that you get the "real" selections that you would have normally played...If you allow any of that "fade bias" to interfere...that is...if you allow the knowledge that you are going to play the opposite play....affect your initial selection in ANY WAY...it will spoil the selection...You know your routine...you know what you do as you cap the games...don't change it one iota...as a matter of fact...post your selections here on Covers as you always do just as you posted this one...Only then...you actually play the opposite...Radical ideas are required to break radical losing, my friend..."So, I am hereby implementing this plan...I will be posting my plays as I normally cap them...I will not be listing or stating that I am fading myself....BUT I WILL BE FADING MYSELF IF I EVEN WAGER AT ALL...For the rest of the season...This...should be interesting... I'm with ya' man. I have come to absolutely LOATHE MLB. I am a handicapper. I dont bet off of gut or anything else other then statistical analysis and I havent been able to find ANY consistency on any type of bet in MLB. When the Under shows it goes Over, when the Over shows it goes Under, when I play a favorite they play like a dog, when I play a dog, they play like a dog. When I bet a pitcher props or Totals the same thing. When I play totals if I'm close, I'll lose by .5 of a run. STL was the play as well today for me and the Over. Of course MIL is gonna win and the total will stay Under. |
smacksmiter | 49 |
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